Emporium Current Essays

189

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HEW PAS POLICY

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A series of recent initiatives, including the opening of a new intercontinental rail link,
have consolidated Iran's position in the emerging geopolitical re-alignment in Central
Asia and Afghanistan that could have significant global consequences. These changes
could also prompt Pakistan to rethink its position within the emerging strategic fault
lines.

Now offering a rail corridor from inner Asia to the warm waters of leverage n the
unfolding "great game" in Central Asia. Wooed by all the major powers, the Central
Asian countries have placed considerable value on gaining an outlet to the sea.

Iran has also consolidated its influence in the strategically located Afghanistan, backing
the regime of President Burhanuddin Rabbani. Iran's textbook diplomacy since
September last has helped to decelerate the continuing Afghan conflict by brining key
warring factions to the negotiating table.

Tehran is exploiting its geographical location by offering a convenient and inexpensive

exit for the huge oi! and natural gas reserves around the Caspian Sea, hoping to increase
its regional clout. Besides, a proactive Tehran is now seeking new strategic alignments
with Russia and China, anticipating a classic East-West geopolitical clash on the eve of
the 21st century,

Iran borders the hydro-carbon rich Caspian Sea periphery of Central Asia and the
Caucuses, and is fiercely competing with the West, wanting to entrench itself in the
region. The key Central Asian, republic of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
have an estimated reserves of 20 billion barrels of oil and seven trillion cubic metres of
gas. Azerbaijan is sitting on huge proven oil and natural gas reserves.

Iran's recent economic initiatives have helped it to break out of a two-pronged US bid to
isolate it. Washington, seeking to geographically cut off Iran, has moved feverfshly along
Tehran's eastern and northern flank. The US has taken steps to dominate the strategic arc
stradding Iran, choosing Afghanistan as the bridgehead for its Central Asian inroads. 190

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The long-term stakes of the West in Afghanistan include a safe passage for a gas pipeline
from Turkmenistan, terminating in Pakistan through Afghanistan. Besides, a foothold in
Afghanistan will also give it a leverage to contain the Russian influence in the region. A
turnaround in Afghanistan will bring pro-US forces face to face with the over 30,000-
strong Russian defence in Tajikistan. Once this is breached Moscow's second defence line
can be constructed only deep inside its borders.

Afghanistan is thus in the eye of a revived 19th centurygreat game, which once south to
freeze the Russian influence along the Oxus river. Denying Russia access to the warm
waters of the Gulf is yet another part of this geopolitical drama.

But Iran appears to have seized the initiative in Kabul. It has mediated an accord between
the Rabbani regime and Gulbadin Hikmatyar of the Hizbe Islam, which could marginalise
the Taliban.

Iran is further countering the Western influence by getting closer to the land-locked
Central Asia. Tehran has played its trump card, the recent opening of a historic inter-
continental link, connecting the complex former Soviet and the Iranian railway systems,
has positioned Iran at the pivot of an unrivalled new EuroAsia transport network. A 165
km rail link bridging the former Soviet and the Iranian railway systems brings Moscow,
Ankara, Central Asia and Urumqi (China) on a common railway map, making it a big
geopolitical event.

For instance, the land-locked Central Asia, in need of a sea outlet will, to the warm
waters of the Gulf via Iran. The Iranian Gulf ports,of Bandar Abbas and Bandar
Khomeini now get linked to althe five Central Asian capitals of Ashqabad (Uzbekistan),
Dushanbe (Tajikistan), Bishkek (Kyrgyzestan) and Almaty (Kazakhstan) along the
widely-dispersed railway. A 3062-km rail line from the Uzbekistan border with
Turkmenistan, and extending further northeast to the rest of Central Asia, terminates
southwards at Bandar Abbas. All this has increased Iran's regional leverage greatly. The
new route will bring Iran close to possible allies, Russia and China, helping to build new
geopolitical alignments.

In case, rivalry between Moscow and Washington is revived (although it seems highly
unlikely, now that Washington's man in Moscow, Boris Yeltsin, seems to be well-
entrenched), it can inject a new dynamism into the ties between Tehran, Moscow and
Beijing. But Iran would have to reckon with the Western economic and commercial
leverage over cash-strapped Moscow and Beijing.

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191

Washington is seeking to tighten the economic noose around Iran, and the transport
routes for the Caspian Sea arc in the eye of a vigorous tussle, but Tehran appears to be
having the upper hand. The West wants to pre-empt a favourably-natural gateway for the
transportation of the Caspian Sea oil and natural gas to overseas markets overseas. Not
surprisingly, top Western companies are looking at developing possible alternative routes
together with Georgia and Turkey as the hub.

Iran's geography gives it unrivalled advantage to get the Caspian Sea reserves
transported. Besides, its suitably-laid internal pipeline network is yet another bonus. The
construction of oniy 100 km of pipeline will connect Iran's Caspian Sea port of Bandar-
eAnzali to the refineries in Tehran, Tabriz, Arak and Isfahan, which are currently supplied
form Iranian oil fields in the south,

Iran is also cultivating special ties with Turkmenistan, which has its giant Daulatabad-
Donmez (formerly Sovietabad) field along its borders. In June 1995, Turkmenistan and
Iran agreed to build a gas pipeline connection from the west Turkmen Korpedzhe field to
Kurku! in northern Iran.

The fighting in Afghanistan has made it difficult for Turkmenistan to fulfil an agreement
on an exit route with Pakistan, reinforcing the focus on Iran as an outlet.

Iran is offering the neighbouring Caspian Sea countries an arrangement for immediate
export. A similar arrangement hiis been worked out with Kazakhstan too. These exit
proposals appear far more attractive than the costlier Western-backed options.

An agreement between Azerbijan and a British Petroleumled consortium envisages initial

exports by train to Georgia and by pipeline to the Black Sea port of Batumi, possibly on
its way by ship through the Bosporus. A costly S2.6 billion pipeline of 1,100 km is also
proposed. This would connect Tbilsi in Georgia to Turkey's Ceyhan, to be further piped
to the facilities on the Mediterranean.

Iran is projecting the new railway network as part of a civilisational revival. It has
christened the new rail as the "Silk Road" route, evoking memories of the estimated
8,000 km ancient "passage linking China and Central and West Asia with Rome.

With the possibility of a post-Cold War, East-West confrontation once again looming,
Pakistan is saddled with making the right choices. With the US and Indian alignments
deeply entrenched over Afghanistan and Central Asia, it may become difficult to build
upon a Pak-US strategic co-operation. It is said that the US did its homework on possible
regional alignments192

Emporium Current Essays

around four years ago and decided to forge a long-term partners! with India. Pakistan
was. out of this new post-Cold \\ arrangement.

Besides Iran is a Muslim country and perhaps one of tin very few which have never let us
down during troubled tim Although on majority of occasions we are on almost the sa
wavelength with respect of mutual and global issues, its only b< during the. recent few
years that >\e have had certain conflict interests. However, one sincerely hopes that our
friendship is stn enough to withstand any inside of outside pressures and we'll si get over
our differences.

In this overall context, there is a certain parallelism in regional concerns and interests of
Pakistan and Iran. New poiit configuration, hopefully, would characterise the power
structure both countries in the coming years. In consequences, governments of both
countries are likely to be, subject to i internal pressures and limitations.

It would be relevant to speculate how Iran had Paki; would inter-act with each other
under the new political dispensat Whatever the outcome of such speculations, the
overriding neccs to sustain and strengthen Pak-Iran relations cannot be doub because
there is not only parallelism in interests, but there are clear indication that there is
complementarity ami mutual benef undertaking this exercise.