Operational Impacts of Responsive Electricity Loads in Cyprus

Matthew Bruchon MIT Technology & Policy Program March 2013

Background Methodology Findings Recommendations

Project Background
Advisors: Stephen Connors & David Marks Prior work:
The Energy Box
Daniel Livengood (ESD 11) Woei Ling Leow (ESD 12)

Green Islands Project

Max Parness (TPP 11) Pamela DeAmicis (TPP 11)

Karl Critz (SDM 12)

Support:
Cyprus Institute Energy, Environment and Water Research Center Klegerman and Rabinowitz Funds
Background Methodology Findings Recommendations

Cyprus Context
EU mandate to triple wind and solar usage Recent supply shortages Drivers of demand: 1. A/C 2. Tourism
2013 Installed Capacity

2020 Installed Capacity

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Cyprus Context
EU mandate to triple wind and solar usage Recent supply shortages Drivers of demand: 1. A/C 2. Tourism

Vasilikos power plant catastrophe, 2011

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Cyprus Context
Hourly Demand (MW)

Dec. 31 00:00

Day of the Year

EU mandate to triple wind and solar usage Recent supply shortages Drivers of demand: 1. A/C 2. Tourism

Jan. 1

12:00

24:00

Time of Day Background Methodology Findings Recommendations

Demand Response
Consumers are paid to shift energy usage when called Grid-scale impacts:
Lowering peak consumption Reacting to wind and solar fluctuations

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Research Question
How can Cyprus change the shape of the demand curve?
Must understand how electricity loads operate

HVAC Advance notice Recovery rate Recovery penalty >= 0 hours 0.5 200%

Dishwasher >= 2 hours 1 100%

Elevator 0 0%

Load length
Shift length Direction of shifts

<
= Load length or

= 30 minutes
<= 3 hours

<
N/A or

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Household A/C Example

Status quo A/C usage (kW)

11:00 AM

12:00 PM

Shifted A/C usage (kW)

11:00 AM

12:00 PM

Change in grid demand (kW)

11:00 AM

12:00 PM

Demand response available from A/C usage (kW-hours) 11:00 AM

12:00 PM

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Model Structure
Excel GUI & Fast Output Viewer Scenario Generator
(Python script Karl Critz, SDM 11)

WILMAR+DR
(GAMS/CPLEX based on WILMAR model from Ris National Lab, Denmark )

Robust Output Viewer

(MATLAB Karl Critz, SDM 11)

WILMAR: Wind Integration in Liberalized Markets DR: Demand Response Fully linear optimization

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Wind Forecasts at 12:00

Wind Generation (MW)

0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Forecasts

Weighted average

Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Wind Forecasts at 15:00

Wind Generation (MW)

0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Forecasts

Weighted average

Past values

Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Wind Forecasts at 18:00

Wind Generation (MW)

0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Forecasts

Weighted average

Past values

Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Wind Forecasts at 21:00

Wind Generation (MW)

0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Forecasts

Weighted average

Past values

Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Wind Forecasts at 24:00

Wind Generation (MW)

0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Forecasts

Weighted average

Past values

Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Limitations
Does not model transmission & distribution Only models event-based demand response Modeling of loads could be even more realistic
Adds nonlinearities

Assumes perfect behavior

Should model stochastic distributed decision making

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load

12PM Sunday

Recovery

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

12PM Sunday

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

Demand response available (MWh)

Generation with DR (MW)

12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks

DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

shutting off expensive turbines flattening thermal output

Methodology Findings Recommendations

Background

Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load

12PM Sunday

Recovery

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

12PM Sunday

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

Demand response available (MWh)

Generation with DR (MW)

12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks

DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

shutting off expensive turbines flattening thermal output

Methodology Findings Recommendations

Background

Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load

12PM Sunday

Recovery

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

12PM Sunday

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

Demand response available (MWh)

Generation with DR (MW)

12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks

DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

shuts off expensive turbines smooths turbine output

Methodology Findings Recommendations

Background

Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load

12PM Sunday

Recovery

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

12PM Sunday

12PM Monday

12PM Tuesday

12PM Wednesday

Demand response available (MWh)

Generation with DR (MW)

12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks

DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday

shuts off expensive turbines smooths turbine output

Methodology Findings Recommendations

Background

Findings
My findings are preliminary. The findings shown here are borrowed from a recent study:

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Demand response can:

Support the transition to renewables Increase grid stability Substitute for new power plants Reduce fuel usage and emissions

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Demand response can:

Support the transition to renewables Increase grid stability Substitute for new power plants Reduce fuel usage and emissions

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Demand response can:

Support the transition to renewables Increase grid stability Substitute for new power plants Reduce fuel usage and emissions

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Demand response can:

Support the transition to renewables Increase grid stability Substitute for new power plants Reduce fuel usage and emissions

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Policy Recommendations
1. CERA: create a demand response pilot program in Cyprus 2. EAC: implement the program
Begin with largest energy consumers Diversify load types

3. TSO: Track grid impacts when EAC calls demand response 4. Scale the program up with wind and solar

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Next Steps
Learn which load types are most useful Assess which sectors to include Address policy design challenges
How to adjust payment from customer to customer? Should certain sectors be opt-in or opt-out?

Background

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations