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Last 44,6 1,2727 97,63 2,99 3,13 -0,87 -0,07 0,99 -4,85 -1,19 0,20 -1,51 -1,59 -1,76 -1,58 -2,38 -1,22 US
Perf 1d % 4,19 -0,14 0,91 -0,17 bp 13,5 bp 2,15 2,16 4,58 -1,37 1,22 1,04 0,86 -0,02 2,71 1,02 0,46 1,02 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
US Q4 GDP revision (13h30 gmt) expected –5.4% from previous –3.8% / minor as wherever was the US economy cruising last quarter,
it has stalled after Lehman US officials and this is what the US officials are working on
Chicago PMI (15h45 gmt) expected 33 from previous 33.3 / minor
Michigan Index (15h gmt) expected 56 from previous 56.2 / minor
POSITIVE IMPACTS
DEUTSCHE TEL: Q4 Rev €16.1bn (15.83e) /Q4 EBITDA €4.7bn (4.6 e) / Q4 Adj net pft €861M (693 e) / DIV €0.78 (in line)
THALES: 08 Rev €12.665bn (12.7e ) / 08 EBIT €877M (876 e) / 08 Net €650M (547 e) / Sees 09 org. rev +3-5%
DAIMLER has won approval to offer vehicle leases in China a sign that China plans to help auto makers use financing tools to stimulate
demand for cars
GENERALI said it successfully completed a €750m issue of bonds due November 2014.“Due to strong demand the order book grew to
€3bn , more than four times the total issue size,” Generali said
COMMERZBANK : Brazilian investor Luiz Cezar Fernandes he is in advanced talks to buy Dresdner Bank's Brazil operations.
The deal is expected to close early next week. The transaction is valued at $90-100 million (Rtrs)
ERSTE BANK: Q4 NII €1.34bn / Q4 net loss €603.4M / to raise €2.7bn (from inverstor & 1.9bn by Gov) / DIV €0.65 (0.5e) / No outlook
WERELDHAVE : 08 direct results €109.4M (101.8e) / Indirect result €-100.6M (-140.6 e) / DIV €4.65 (in line)
ITALIAN BANKS & INSU : Consob has extended the short-selling ban until May 31
NORWAY’s BANKS : Norwegian Prime Minister said the country’s major banks will probably participate in the government plan to inject
capital into lenders. Reminder : The Norwegian govt plans to inject as much as $15bn into banks and other companies to boost growth
ACIONA : FY sales €12.67bn ( 12.2e) / FY net pft €464M (507.5 e)
EIFFAGE 2008 Sales €13.226bn (in linish) / Operating profit €1.104bn (in linish) / Net Profit €301m (€367m exp) / keeps DIV at €1.2 /
Sees FY09 sales of €13.7bn (€13.5bn consensus)
REPSOL says sees SACYR keeping stake in Co in mid to long term
CITIGROUP&the U.S. govt have reached a deal to convert up to $25bn in govt-held prfd shares in the bank to common equity (Source).
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
GAMESA :FY Rev €3.65bn (in line) / FY EBITDA €531M (497 e) / FY Net pft €322M (334 e) /Sees 09 EBIT margin of 6-7% (8.6%e)
LLOYDS FY08 revenus £9.9bn (£11.1bn exp) / NII £7.7bn / Net Income £819m / Tier1 6.4% end 2008 / Approved a cap issue of 1 for 40
shares heldtalks on scheme are advanced / Short-term outlook is challenging / Conf Call at 9:30 UKT
ENEL is set to launch a capital increase for €5-7 bn to help it maintain its dividend policy (Il Sole 24 Ore)
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BUY NOKIA / SELL ERICSSON // BUY TOTAL / SELL ENI // BUY SIEMENS / SELL ALSTOM // BUY DANONE / SELL UNILEVER
BROKER METEOROLOGY
ANGLO AMERICAN ....................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL .............................................................. BY GOLDMAN SACHS
CGG VERITAS ............................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL .................................................................................... BY UBS
EDF...............................................RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL ................................................................... BY HSBC
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ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
11.30 GMT Japan Jobless rate January 4,6 % 4,6% 4,4%
11.30 GMT Japan Household spending (YoY) January -5,5 % YoY -4,6% YoY
11.30 GMT Japan Tokyo consumer price index (YoY) February 0,3% YoY 0,5% YoY
11.30 GMT Japan National consumer price index January 0,0% YoY 0,4% YoY
11.30 GMT Japan Industrial production (préliminary) January -10,0%,-30,7% YoY -9,8%,-20,8% YoY
00.01 GMT United Kingdom GfK consumer confidence February -39 -37
04.00 GMT Japan Vehicle production (YoY) January -25,2%YoY
05.00 GMT Japan Housing starts (YoY) January -14,9% YoY -5,8 % YoY
10.00 GMT Euro zone Consumer price index January -0,9%,+1,1% YoY -0,8%,+1,1% YoY -0,1%,+1,6% YoY
10.00 GMT Euro zone Consumer price index core (ex food and energy) January 1,8% YoY 1,8% YoY 1,8% YoY
10.00 GMT Euro zone Unemployment rate January 8,1% 8.0%
13.30 GMT United-States GDP QoQ (annualyzed) preliminary fourth quarter -4,4% QoQ -5,4% QoQ -3,8% QoQ
13.30 GMT United-States Personal consumption fourth quarter -3,7% -3,5%
13.30 GMT United-States Personal consumption core (ex food and energy) fourth quarter 0,6% 0,6%
14.45 GMT United-States Chicago purchasing manager February 33,0 33,3
15.00 GMT United-States University of Michigan confidence (final) February 56,0 56,2
15.00 GMT United-States NAPM - Milwaukee February 35,0 33,0
Watch in the United-States the release of the preliminary release of the Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter due at 13.30 GMT
expected be worst that the advanced released as the trade deficit higher than expected will not impacted the GDP as it was forecast.
Watch in the Euro Area the release of the consumer price index for January due at 10.00 GMT and expected to decrease as energy
and commodity prices are dropping and as the global economic downturn boost prices down, the core price index will remain positive but
below 2%, watch as well the release of the unemployment rate for January expected to increase as the area is facing its worst recession
ever forcing companies to cut jobs ./JB
ate
ECONOMY
UNITED-STATES : DURABLE GOODS ORDER DROPPED IN JANUARY AND INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS SHARPLY ROSE LAST WEEK
Orders for durable goods fell for a record sixth consecutive month in January at -5.2% almost twice as expected (-2.5%). This drop
underline the magnitude of the current slump in investment as domestic demand ( 71% of the GDP) is hit by the rise of the unemployment
and by the credit crunch and as exports are down due to the global economic downturn reducing sharply demand for American goods
abroad. Nevertheless January decline was not as bad as it looks because some of it was due to a drop back in defence orders. Excluding
defence durable orders fell more modestly of 2.3%. Demand for capital goods have been particularly hit with core non defence capital
goods dropping by more than 5% a month in December and in January. In the mean time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose
more than expected at 667 000 (forecast 625 000 and continuing claims reached 5112000 (forecast 5 025 000). The January increase of
initial jobless claims (+ 36 000) is the highest since 1982. The Unites states are facing a vicious circle as job losses are crippling the
consumer spending , reducing the companies sells which are reducing investments and cutting jobs again.
2 -1
27/02/2007 27/08/2007 27/02/2008 27/08/2008 27/02/2009 27/02/2007 27/08/2007 27/02/2008 27/08/2008 27/02/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg
30 1,2
27/02/2007 27/08/2007 27/02/2008 27/08/2008 27/02/2009 27/02/2007 27/08/2007 27/02/2008 27/08/2008 27/02/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg
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