Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 4, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 4, 2013

Highlights
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 77.6-level in Feb. European Unemployment Rate rose by 11.9 percent in January. US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2-mark in the last month. Indias HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2-mark in February. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today apart from Japanese markets on the back of expectations of stimulus measures from Bank of Japan. US Core Personal consumption Expenditures (CPE) increased by 0.1 percent in January. Personal spending rose by 0.2 percent in January as compared to 0.1 percent in December. Revised University of Michigan (UoM) consumer Sentiment increased to 77.6 levels in February from early rise of 76.3 levels in January. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 54.2 levels in February when compared to early rise of 53.1 levels in January. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased by 1 point to 54.2-mark in February as against a rise of 53.2level in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5719.7 18918.5 14089.66 1518.2 15675.4 2026.5 58497.8 11606.4 90.68 1571.90 2845.10 7720.50 102.09 Prev. day 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 -1.5 1.3 0.2 0.4 -1.5 -0.4 0.0 -1.2 0.0

as on March 1, 2013 WoW -2.2 -2.1 0.6 0.2 -3.4 0.6 3.2 -0.1 -2.6 -0.9 -1.8 -1.2 -0.2 MoM -4.7 -4.4 0.6 0.3 -6.2 3.2 -3.1 1.2 -7.3 -6.2 -10.2 -1.6 0.5 YoY 7.1 3.4 8.5 10.8 -6.9 2.6 -13.7 19.6 -16.7 -8.7 -17.5 -10.5 -1.4

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. In addition, US GDP grew at slower pace than expectations which also supported an upside in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of consumer confidence, core durable goods orders along with housing data and manufacturing PMI coming on a positive note. It touched a weekly high of 82.58 and closed at 82.36 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.36 54.90 55.24 55.25 Prev. day 0.4 -1.0 0.97 0.99

as on March 1, 2013 WoW 0.9 -1.2 1.75 1.77 MoM 4.1 -3.3 3.39 3.41 YoY 3.7 -10.3 11.50 11.52

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 1.2 percent. The currency depreciated after 2013-14 fiscal budget increased spending. Further, slow rise in the countrys GDP coupled with strength in the DX added downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, weak domestic market sentiments also acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Indian Rupee touched a low of 54.94 in the last week and closed at 54.90 against dollar on Friday. For the month of March 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.1,274.60 st crores ($237.04 million) as on 1 March 2013. Year to date basis, net st capital inflows stood at Rs.45,223.60 crores ($8,397.60 million) till 1 March 2013. Outlook

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from importers will also exert downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) UP

valid for March 4, 2013 Support 55.10/54.80 Resistance 55.50/55.75

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 4, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 1.3 percent on weakly basis as the uncertainty in the Italy persists. Further, negative unemployment change and prelim CPI from Germany and rise in Unemployment rate from Euro area also added downside pressure. However, smooth auction of Italian 10 year government bonds around $5 billion and comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that central banks has no intentions of tightening monetary policy cushioned the sharp depreciation in the currency. German Retail Sales grew by 3.1 percent in January as against a decline of 1.6 percent in December. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.7 points to 46.8-mark in February from previous rise of 46.1-level in January. Italian Manufacturing PMI declined by 2 points to 45.8-level in February as compared to rise of 47.8-mark a month ago. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate increased at slow pace of 1.8 percent in February as against a rise of 2 percent in January. Unemployment Rate rose by 11.9 percent in January from earlier rise of 11.8 percent in previous month. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2965 and closed at 1.302 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of weak global market sentiment coupled with strength in the DX. Further, Spanish Unemployment Change is expected to come on a negative note which will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) UP 71.60/71.30 72.10/72.40 valid for March 4, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.302 71.58 71.92 71.9 Prev. day -0.3 -0.3 0.17 0.23

as on March 1, 2013 WoW -1.3 -0.1 0.51 0.52 MoM -4.5 1.4 -1.26 -1.25 YoY -2.2 8.96 8.95

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5036 82.585 82.98 Prev. day -0.82 0.17 -0.10

as on March 1, 2013

WoW -0.8 0.37 0.12

MoM -4.2 -1.04 -1.79

YoY -5.7 5.19 5.11

GBP/INR
On the Weekly basis, Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.8 percent on the back of decline in manufacturing PMI, fall in realized sales along with strength in the DX . However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented on the back of mixed global market sentiments. UKs Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) was at 0.2 percent in February from earlier rise of 0.5 percent in January. Manufacturing PMI declined by 2.9 points to 47.9-mark in February as against a rise of 50.8-level in the last month. Net Lending to Individuals grew at slow pace of 0.6 billion Pounds in January as compared to rise of 1.7 billion Pounds a month ago. The Sterling Pound touched a low of 1.4984 and closed at 1.5036 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of construction PMI data expected to come on a positive note. Technical Outlook valid for March 4, 2013
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) UP Support 82.70/82.40 Resistance 83.30/83.60

82.96

-0.13

0.08

-1.79

5.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 4, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency in the early part of the week. Additionally, unfavorable retail sales and industrial production data also added downside pressure on the currency. Japans household spending increased by 2.4 percent in the January as compared to -0.7 percent in December. Tokyo Core CPI declined to -0.6 percent in the February from -0.5 percent in January. Capital Spending decreased by 8.7 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise of 2.2 percent rise in Q3 of 2012. The Yen touched a weekly low of 94.76 and closed at 93.56 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on account of expectations of stimulus measures from Bank of Japan. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) UP valid for March 4, 2013 Support 59.20/58.80 Resistance 59.80/60.20

JPY (% change)
Last 93.56 0.5867 59.45 59.47 Prev day 1.1 -0.10 0.16 0.20

as on March 1, 2013 WoW 0.2 0.96 2.06 2.08 MoM 0.9 -98.99 2.39 2.41 YoY 15.4 -3.26 -2.76 -2.75

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 4, 2013

Indicator Spanish Unemployment Change Halifax HPI m/m Euro group Meetings Construction PMI FOMC Member Yellen Speaks Country Europe UK Europe UK US Time (IST) 1:30pm 4th-7th All Day 3:00pm 6:30pm Actual Forecast Previous 132.1K -0.2% 48.7 Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium

www.angelbroking.com