Monthly Update | February 2013

March 5, 2013

Automobile Sector
Weakness continues
For February 2013, auto sales remained weak across most of the segments, led by continued weakness in domestic demand on account of high interest rates, inflation and slowdown in economic activity. Further, high base effect due to pre-budget buying in February 2012 also impacted the growth. While weakness persisted across most segments, it was more prominent in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV), tractor, passenger car, and two-wheeler segments. The utility vehicles (UV) segment, which had so far remained insulated from the slowdown, also witnessed initial signs of weakness in our view. Going ahead, we expect the demand environment to remain weak in 4QFY2013 as slowdown in economic growth coupled with higher interest rates and fuel expenses continue to dampen consumer sentiments. Tata Motors (TTMT) reported in-line volumes for the month, with total sales posting a substantial decline of 32.7% yoy (flat mom), led by 33.1% and 26.2% yoy decline in domestic and export volumes respectively. The domestic performance was severely impacted on account of deteriorating MHCV and passenger vehicle sales which witnessed a significant decline of 45% and 69.5% yoy respectively. LCV sales however sustained growth momentum, posting a growth of 13% yoy (8.6% mom). Ashok Leyland (AL) reported slightly lower-than-expected volumes led by continued weakness in the MHCV segment, which declined by 26% yoy (up 2.6% mom). Consequently, total volumes declined 9.5% yoy (4.9% mom). Dosts volumes, however, maintained steady performance and recorded sales of 3,001 units. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported in-line volumes (down 7.9% yoy, 4.1% mom), largely due to slowdown in demand for entry level cars and vans. As a result, the Mini and Vans segments witnessed a steep decline of 15.9% yoy (11.1% mom) and 38.9% yoy (2.9% mom) respectively. However, the Super Compact (up 21.6% yoy and 7.4% mom) and Utility Vehicle segments registered a strong growth led by Dzire and Ertiga respectively. Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) registered an in-line volume growth of 7.3% yoy (down 6.4% mom) driven by a healthy volume growth of 11% yoy (down 3.4% mom) in the automotive segment. Tractor volumes however continued with the downward trend, posting a decline of 3% yoy (14.9% mom). According to the Management, high interest rates and fuel prices continue to impact the consumer sentiments which are affecting overall demand. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler manufacturers in our coverage universe reported a lower-than-expected performance, due to sluggish demand on the back of weak consumer sentiments. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered a 3.3% yoy (4.4% mom) decline in total volumes, primarily on account of a 10.8% yoy (10% mom) decline in domestic volumes. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) too registered a decline of 4.2% yoy (10.1% mom), due to slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry. TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes, with total volumes posting a decline of 3.7% yoy (5.8% mom) on account of slowdown in the two-wheeler segment (down 4.8% yoy).
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Yaresh Kothari
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Tata Motors
TTMT registered a steep decline led by continued weakness in PV and MHCV sales TTMT reported in-line volumes for the month, with total sales posting a substantial decline of 32.7% yoy (flat mom) to 61,998 units on account of a 33.1% and 26.2% yoy decline in domestic and export volumes respectively. The domestic performance was severely impacted on account of deteriorating MHCV and passenger vehicle (PV) sales which witnessed a significant decline of 45% and 69.5% yoy respectively. Domestic commercial vehicle sales witnessed a decline of 8.6% yoy, primarily due to poor MHCV sales led by weak industrial activity. LCV sales however sustained growth momentum, posting a growth of 13% yoy (8.6% mom). The PV segment continued to disappoint, with the passenger car and utility vehicle sales posting significant decline of 72.5% yoy (30.6% mom) and 56.9% yoy (29.2% mom), respectively.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors Sales trend

Segment Total sales MHCV domestic LCV domestic Domestic CV Utility vehicles domestic Cars - domestic Domestic PV Exports
Source: Company, Angel Research

February 2013 61,998 10,629 36,760 47,389 2,844 7,769 10,613 3,996

February % chg 2012 92,119 (32.7) 19,332 (45.0) 32,540 51,872 13.0 (8.6)

YTD FY2013 737,374 128,529 351,801 480,330 43,976 165,789 209,765 47,279

YTD % chg FY2012 806,165 287,013 472,054 48,624 (8.5) 22.6 1.8 (9.6) 185,041 (30.5)

6,596 (56.9) 28,236 (72.5) 34,832 (69.5) 5,415 (26.2)

227,776 (27.2) 276,400 (24.1) 57,711 (18.1)

Exhibit 2: Domestic CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0)

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Exhibit 3: Domestic PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Oct-11 Feb-11 Feb-12 Oct-12 Dec-11 Aug-11 Aug-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Jun-11 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jun-12 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Ashok Leyland
MHCV sales down significantly led by slowdown in the industrial activity AL reported slightly lower-than-expected volumes due to continued weakness in the MHCV segment, which declined by 26% yoy (up 2.6% mom) to 7,045 units. Consequently, total volumes declined 9.5% yoy (4.9% mom) to 10,046 units. Dosts volumes, however, maintained steady performance and recorded sales of 3,001 units.

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland Sales trend

Total sales CV (ex. Dost) Dost February 2013 10,046 7,045 3,001 February 2012 11,103 9,521 1,582 % chg (9.5) (26.0) 89.7 YTD FY2013 100,690 70,097 30,593 YTD FY2012 87,860 82,478 5,382 % chg 14.6 (15.0) 468.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50)

Oct-11

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Dec-11

Aug-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Aug-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Jun-11

Apr-11

Apr-12

Jun-12

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Maruti Suzuki
MSIL registered in-line performance driven by the new launches, Dzire and Ertiga MSIL reported in-line volumes for February 2013, primarily driven by growth in the Super Compact (up 21.6% yoy and 7.4% mom) and Utility Vehicle segments led by Dzire and Ertiga respectively. Total volumes for the month registered a decline of 7.9% yoy (4.1% mom) to 109,567 units, largely due to slowdown in demand for entry levels cars and vans. As a result, the Mini and Vans segments witnessed a steep decline of 15.9% yoy (11.1% mom) and 38.9% yoy (2.9% mom) respectively. The Compact segment too posted a decline of 13.9% yoy during the month. Export volumes on the other hand registered a modest growth of 2.8% yoy (3.9% mom) as demand in key export markets continues to remain weak. We expect MSIL to miss out on its volume growth guidance of 5.5-6% for FY2013 (volume growth of 4.3% YTD in FY2013); though marginally.

Exhibit 6: Maruti Suzuki Sales trend

Segment Total sales A: Mini: M800, A-star, Alto, Wagon R A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz A: Super Compact: Dzire A: Mid-size: SX4 A: Executive: Kizashi Total passenger vehicles B: UV - Gypsy, Grand Vitara, Ertiga C: Vans: Omni, Eeco Total domestic sales Total exports February February 2013 2012 109,567 118,949 41,311 24,021 18,316 215 2 83,865 5,957 8,133 11,612 49,104 27,899 15,068 2,033 14 94,118 % chg YTD FY2013 384,522 229,434 149,493 5,804 188 769,441 72,704 101,011 943,156 108,341 YTD FY2012 438,563 207,841 93,681 16,477 410 756,972 % chg 4.3 (12.3) 10.4 59.6 (64.8) (54.1) 1.6 (7.9) 1,051,497 1,007,743 (15.9) (13.9) 21.6 (89.4) (85.7) (10.9)

230 2,490.0 13,305 11,296 (38.9) (9.0) 2.8

4,995 1,355.5 131,625 893,592 114,151 (23.3) 5.5 (5.1)

97,955 107,653

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Exhibit 7: Total volumes - Monthly sales trend

(units) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra and Mahindra

MM registered in-line performance; tractor demand continues to remain weak; initial signs of slowdown witnessed in the utility vehicle segment MM registered an in-line volume growth of 7.3% yoy (down 6.4% mom) to 62,685 units, driven by a healthy volume growth of 11% yoy (down 3.4% mom) in the automotive segment. Tractor volumes however continued with the downward trend, posting a decline of 3% yoy (14.9% mom). The growth in the automotive segment was driven by continued traction in the passenger vehicle segment (up 13.8% yoy) on the back of the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton. The three-wheeler segment however registered a sluggish growth with volumes declining by 6% yoy (17.3% mom). Export volumes staged a recovery during the month and posted a strong 30.4% yoy growth (106.1% mom). In the tractor segment, MM posted a decline of 3% yoy (14.9% mom) due to weakness in the domestic markets (the company witnessed a decline of 2.8% yoy [15% mom]) in domestic market tractor sales). According to the Management, high interest rates and fuel prices continue to impact consumer sentiments, thereby affecting overall demand.

March 5, 2013

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Exhibit 8: Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trend

Segment Total sales Passenger vehicles Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) LCV/MHCV Exports Total automotive sales Tractor sales Domestic Tractor sales Exports Total tractor sales
Source: Company, Angel Research

February 2013 62,685 23,421 15,167 4,803 1,008 3,425 47,824 13,944 917 14,861

February % chg 2012 58,403 20,573 13,522 5,111 2,626 43,087 14,341 975 15,316

YTD FY2013

YTD % chg FY2012 9.7 28.6 13.8 (2.7) 12.3 17.2 (4.7) (5.3)

7.3 718,023 654,292 13.8 253,427 197,095 12.2 157,021 137,977 (6.0) 30.4 60,679 10,567 29,777 62,351 26,518

1,255 (19.7)

12,304 (14.1)

11.0 511,471 436,245 (2.8) 196,045 205,810 (5.9) 10,507 (3.0) 206,552 218,047

12,237 (14.1)

Exhibit 9: PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Tractor segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Oct-11

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Dec-11

Aug-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Aug-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Jun-11

Apr-11

Apr-12

Jun-12

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported lower-than-expected sales led by weak consumer sentiments in the domestic market Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered lower-than-expected sales, primarily on account of sluggish demand in the domestic motorcycle industry, led by weak consumer sentiments amid high inflation and interest rates. Total volumes registered a decline of 3.3% yoy (4.4% mom) to 332,387 units as domestic volumes posted a sharp decline of 10.8% yoy (10% mom). While motorcycle sales declined by 3.5% yoy (3.3% mom), three-wheeler sales reported a decline of 1.7% yoy (11.2% mom). Export volumes registered a healthy growth of 10.1% yoy (5.2% mom).

Exhibit 11: Bajaj Auto Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Three-wheelers Exports (included above) February 2013 332,387 291,297 41,090 135,149 February % chg 2012 343,777 301,961 41,816 122,727 YTD FY2013 YTD % chg FY2012 (1.9) (1.2) (7.2) (1.8)

(3.3) 3,935,931 4,014,045 (3.5) 3,490,068 3,533,557 (1.7) 445,863 480,488 10.1 1,445,783 1,472,133

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0)

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Exhibit 13: Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0)

Oct-11

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Dec-11

Aug-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Hero MotoCorp
HMCL posted subdued performance led by slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry HMCL posted lower-than-expected performance as total sales registered a decline of 4.2% yoy (10.1% mom) to 501,271 units, led by slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry. Meanwhile, the workers at the companys Gurgaon plant have resorted to indefinite hunger strike as announced earlier to pressurize the Management to reach a wage settlement. This is following an inconclusive meeting with the Management on February 22, 2013. However, as per reports, the production at the plant has not been impacted.

Exhibit 14: Hero MotoCorp Sales trend

February 2013 Total sales 501,271
Source: Company, Angel Research

February % chg 2012 523,465

YTD FY2013

Aug-12

YTD FY2012

Dec-12

Feb-13

Jun-11

Apr-11

Apr-12

Jun-12

% chg (1.8)

(4.2) 5,605,298 5,706,905

March 5, 2013

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Exhibit 15: HMCL Monthly sales trend

(units) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Motor
TVSL reported weak performance as the two-wheeler segment continues to report poor sales amidst the slowdown and rising competition in the industry TVS Motor (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes, with total volumes posting a decline of 3.7% yoy (5.8% mom) to 165,696 units. The weakness was primarily on account of slowdown in the two-wheeler segment (down 4.8% yoy). Motorcycle and scooter sales declined 3.2% (5.5% mom) and 16.6% yoy (19.3% mom), respectively. Three-wheeler sales however, maintained momentum and posted a robust growth of 56.6% yoy (8.7% mom). Exports too surged 21.9% yoy (5.7% mom) during the month. The Management expects the export volumes to touch a monthly run-rate of 28,000-30,000 units within the next six months.

Exhibit 16: TVS Motor Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total two-wheelers Three-wheelers Exports (included above) February 2013 165,696 60,985 30,611 69,299 160,895 4,801 21,896 February % chg 2012 172,061 63,019 69,284 168,996 3,065 17,960 (3.2) 0.0 56.6 21.9 YTD FY2013 688,165 412,373 720,631 43,763 222,286 YTD FY2012 777,344 489,700 711,057 37,865 267,752 % chg (7.5) (11.5) (15.8) 1.3 (7.9) 15.6 (17.0)

(3.7) 1,864,932 2,015,966

36,693 (16.6)

(4.8) 1,821,169 1,978,101

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Exhibit 17: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Apr-12

Oct-11

Oct-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 18: Scooter segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Dec-11

Aug-11

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Feb-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

March 5, 2013

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

Feb-13

Jun-11

Jun-12

10

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Outlook
We believe the long-term structural growth drivers of the Indian automobile industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance are intact. As such, we prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We remain positive on AL, HMCL, MSIL, MM and TTMT.

Exhibit 19: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies AL BJAUT HMCL MSIL MM TTMT* TVSL Reco. Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Buy CMP (`) 23 1,971 TP (`) 28 Sales (`cr) FY13E 12,910 20,775 23,990 43,381 40,060 7,019 14,836 23,889 27,038 52,411 46,301 7,827 P/E (x) 15.7 18.3 15.6 21.8 16.2 10.7 9.1 10.4 15.6 13.7 14.7 14.0 8.3 7.4 P/BV (x) 2.1 7.5 6.3 2.5 3.7 2.4 1.4 1.9 6.0 5.1 2.1 3.1 1.9 1.2 RoE (%) 9.3 45.8 44.3 11.8 24.5 24.6 16.4 13.3 42.8 40.9 15.6 23.8 25.4 17.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 12.8 7.7 10.4 9.4 4.6 3.4 5.2 10.4 6.3 6.9 7.7 3.9 2.6 FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 2.7 8.9 5.3 39.0 17.3 1.2 0.1

1,646 1,923 1,431 1,563 898 1,019 301 39 47

326 184,201 209,642

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on March 5, 2013; *Consolidated financials

March 5, 2013

11

Auto Sector Update | February 2013

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership of the stock Ashok Leyland Tata Motors Maruti Suzuki Mahindra & Mahindra Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motor No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

March 5, 2013

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Auto Sector Update | February 2013

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Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Bhavesh Chauhan Viral Shah Sharan Lillaney V Srinivasan Yaresh Kothari Ankita Somani Sourabh Taparia Bhupali Gursale Vinay Rachh Amit Patil Shareen Batatawala Twinkle Gosar Tejashwini Kumari Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Hiten Sampat Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Akshay Shah Production Team: Tejas Vahalia Dilip Patel Research Editor Production tejas.vahalia@angelbroking.com dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com VP - Institutional Sales Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales Dealer Dealer Sr. Executive mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com hiten.sampat@angelbroking.com meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com akshayr.shah@angelbroking.com Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com sacchitanand.uttekar@angelbroking.com VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) Sr. Analyst (Infrastructure) Analyst (Mid-cap) Analyst (Cement, FMCG) Analyst (Automobile) Analyst (IT, Telecom) Analyst (Banking) Economist Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate sarabjit@angelbroking.com vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com viralk.shah@angelbroking.com sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com ankita.somani@angelbroking.com sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com bhupali.gursale@angelbroking.com vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com amit.patil@angelbroking.com shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com gosar.twinkle@angelbroking.com tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com

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March 5, 2013

13