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Goodman : Snowball Sampling

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Snowball Sampling
Leo A. Goodman Source: Ann. Math. Statist. Volume 32, Number 1 (1961), 148-170.

Abstract
as follows: A random sample of individuals is drawn from a given finite population. (The kind of random sample will be discussed later in this section.) Each individual in the population, where is a specified integer; for example,
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k k k s

An

stage

name snowball sampling procedure is defined

sample is asked to name

k

different individuals in the

each individual may be asked to name his " best friends," or the " individuals with whom he most frequently associates," or the " individuals whose opinions he most frequently seeks," etc. (For the sake of simplicity, we assume throughout that an individual cannot include were not in the random sample but were named by individuals in it form the first stage. Each of the individuals individuals. (We assume that the question asked of the individuals in the random sample and of those in each who were not in the random sample nor in the first stage but were named by individuals who were in the first stage form the second stage. Each of the individuals in the
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k k k k k

himself in his list of

individuals.) The individuals who

in the first stage is then asked to name

different

stage is the same and that

is the same.) The individuals

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Goodman : Snowball Sampling

The individuals who were not in the random sample nor in the first or second stages but were named by individuals who were in the second stage form the third stage. Each of different individuals. This procedure is continued until each of the individuals in the th stage has been asked to name name snowball sampling procedure can be utilized to
s k

the individuals in the third stage is then asked to name

different individuals. The data obtained using an

make statistical inferences about various aspects of the relationships present in the population. The relationships present, in the hypothetical situation where each individual can be described by a matrix with rows and columns corresponding to the members of the population, rows for the individuals naming and columns for the individuals is 1 if the th individual in the population includes the th 0 otherwise. While the matrix of the 's cannot be known in general unless every individual in the population is will be possible to make statistical inferences about various stage when name snowball sampling procedure. For example,
11 M

, the number,

, of mutual relationships with ) can be estimated.

i

present in the population (i.e., the number of values

i > j

for some value of stage

The methods of statistical inference applied to the data course depend on the kind of random sample drawn as the initial step. In most of the present paper, we shall suppose that a random sample (i.e., the "zero stage" in snowball
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k s

obtained from an

name snowball sample will of

aspects of this matrix from the data obtained using an

k

interviewed (i.e., asked to name

different individuals), it

individual among the

individuals he would name, and it is

ji

named, where the entry

i

in the th row and th column

in the population is asked to name

second stage is then asked to name

different individuals.

stage

1 = k = s

1 =

ij

ji

k k

different individuals,

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Goodman : Snowball Sampling

p

sample) is drawn so that the probability, , that a given individual in the population will be in the sample is independent of whether a different given individual has appeared. This kind of sampling has been called binomial been called the sampling fraction [4]. This sampling scheme might also be described by saying that a given individual is included in the sample just when a coin, which the tosses of the coin from individual to individual are independent. (To each individual there corresponds an independent Bernoulli trial determining whether he will or will not be included in the sample.) This sampling scheme differs in some respects from the more usual models where the sample size is fixed in advance or where the ratio of the sample size to the population size (i.e., the sample sizepopulation size ratio) is fixed. For binomial sampling, this ratio is a random variable whose expected value is . (The variance of this ratio approaches zero as the population becomes infinite.) In some situations (where, for example, the variance of this ratio is near zero), mathematical results obtained for binomial sampling are sometimes quite similar to results obtained using some of the more usual sampling models (see [4], [7]; compare the variance formulas in [3] and [5]); in such cases it will often not make much difference, from a practical point of view, which sampling model is utilized. (In Section 6 of the present paper some results for snowball sampling based on an initial sample of the more usual kind are obtained and compared with results presented in the earlier sections of this paper obtained for snowball sampling based on an initial binomial sample.) For snowball sampling based on an initial
1 = k = s p p p

sampling; the specified value of

(assumed known) has

has a probability

of "heads," comes up "heads," where

binomial sample, and with

, so that each
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Goodman : Snowball Sampling

individual asked names just one other individual and there is just one stage beyond the initial sample, Section 2 of number of pairs of individuals in the population who would name each other. One of the unbiased estimators considered (among a certain specified class of estimators) has uniformly smallest variance when the population characteristics are unknown; this one is based on a sufficient statistic for a simplified summary of the data and sufficient statistic (when the population characteristics are variance than a comparable minimum variance unbiased estimator computed from a larger random sample when random sample are interviewed) even where the expected number of individuals in the larger random sample is equal to the maximum expected number (i.e., the sum of the
1 = k = s ) 1 = k , 0 = s( 1 = k 1 = k = s
11 M 11 M

this paper discusses unbiased estimation of

, the

is the only unbiased estimator of unknown). This estimator (when

based on that ) has a smaller

and

(i.e., where only the individuals in the

of individuals studied when

expected number of individuals in the initial sample and the maximum expected number of individuals in the first and is at least twice as large as the variance of the even where the and
0 = s 1 = k = s 0 = s

stage). In fact, the variance of the estimator when comparable estimator when
1 = k

expected number of individuals studied when

1 = k

based on the simplified summary of the data having minimum variance when the population characteristics are unknown can be improved upon in cases where certain
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1 = k = s

we observe that when

the unbiased estimator

1 = k

0 = s

the sampling scheme with

1 = k = s

, the sampling scheme with

1 = k = s

individuals studied when

11 M

0 = s

is as large as the maximum expected number of . Thus, for estimating is preferable to . Furthermore,

and

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Goodman : Snowball Sampling

population characteristics are known, or where additional data not included in the simplified summary are available. Several improved estimators are derived and discussed. generalized in Sections 3 and 4 to deal with cases where results are presented about
k 1 = k = s

Some of the results for the special case of and

are
s

are any specified positive integers. In Section 5,

k

stage

name snowball

sampling procedures, where each individual asked to name from the population. (Except in Section 5, the numbers
k

different individuals chooses

which form the matrix referred to earlier, are assumed to be fixed (i.e., to be population parameters); in Section 5, they are random variables. A variable response error is not considered except in so far as Section 5 deals with an extreme case of this.) For social science literature that discusses problems related to snowball sampling, see [2], [8], and the articles they cite. This literature indicates, among other things, the importance of studying "social structure and...the relations among individuals" [2].
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Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoms/1177705148 JSTOR: links.jstor.org Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/aoms/1177705148 Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet): MR124140 Zentralblatt MATH identifier: 0099.14203

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ji

individuals at random ,

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Goodman : Snowball Sampling

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