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Den Networks Ltd
Subscription ramp-up during Phase I; Phase II to be a bigger driver January 04, 2013
11 Sector: Media
BSE code: NSE code: 52 Week h/l (`): Market cap (`cr): FV (`): Performance rel. to sensex (%) DEN Dish TV Hathway ZEE Ent 1m (3.6) (2.2) 0.3 6.1 3m 5.4 (10.3) 18.2 6.7 1yr 239.4 5.0 120.8 69.2 532814 DEN 210/47 2,618 10
Shareholding pattern September '12 Promoters Institutions Public & others (%) 53.8 15.2 31.1
Digital subscription of Den Networks rose from ~0.5mn to 1.6mn during Phase I digitization (covering 4 Metros). With constant demand from Local Cable Operators (LCOs) for more Set Top Boxes (STB), the total number of subscribers in Phase I locations is expected to cross 2mn by Jan2013. Out of the current subscribers of 1.6mn, Delhi is the core area of presence accounting for 1.1mn, followed by Mumbai (0.3mn) and Kolkata (0.2mn). The full impact of Phase I digitization on Dens top line would be reflected from Q4 FY13. In Phase II locations, DEN has a subscriber base of 4-4.5mn, of which 0.5mn are already digitized. With companys strong foothold in Phase II locations (presence in 24 cities out of the total 38 cities) and lower penetration of digital cable (~10%) within its subscribers, revenue growth would likely be robust in the longer term. Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (MIB) is already in talks with industry on Phase II implementation. As digitization progresses, DENs subscriber base is expected to touch 15-20mn from the current 11mn.
Jun-12
Nov-12
With relatively lower requirement for capex, ability to provide bundled services (video, broadband, telephone, etc), capacity to carry more HD channels and large LCO network, we expect MSOs to benefit significantly from digitization. From mid-Sept to Phase I deadline, DTH players added subscribers to the tune of 0.17mn whereas MSOs added 1.7mn subscribers. DEN, being one of the leading MSO, has already received order for ~2mn STBs from Phase II locations signifying the phenomenal pace of digitization. In addition to increased demand for STBs, digitization will gradually eliminate the scope of under-declaration of subscribers by the LCOs (Digital Addressable System identifying each subscriber). Resultantly, MSOs will have direct control over its subscribers and would share a legitimate portion of the revenue pie.
Digitization has resulted in complete turnaround of the cable industry. Backed by factual subscriber statistics and lower content cost, Den Networks being one of the leading cable distribution companies is likely to see a meaningful impact on its profitability. This was partially evident in sharp operating margin improvement during H1 FY13, from 7.3% in FY12 to 20.2%. Full impact of Phase I implementation, commencement of Phase II (a bigger opportunity), significant demand for STBs and margin improvement would drive exceptional earnings growth (100%+ CAGR) over FY12-15.
Financial summary
Y/e 31 Mar (` m) Revenue yoy growth (%) Operating profit OPM (%) Net Profit yoy growth (%) EPS (`) FY12 11,295 10.5 822 7.3 143 (8.7) 1.1 61.5 180.0 3.2 24.0 1.4 1.8 1.0 FY13E 9,827 (13.0) 1,867 19.0 588 127.0 4.4 65.0 44.5 3.0 12.9 4.8 7.1 3.7 FY14E 12,775 30.0 2,619 20.5 816 40.3 6.1 71.2 32.0 2.8 10.1 5.8 9.0 4.5 FY15E 15,969 25.0 3,785 23.7 1,376 44.5 10.4 81.5 19.0 2.4 7.3 8.4 13.6 6.5
Adj.BVPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) RoCE RoE RoA
600
300
Technical View
Nifty continues to be in strong uptrend and is consolidating above 6,000 mark as it trades above all the critical moving averages. The immediate resistance for Nifty is seen at 6,090 levels and above which it may take shot at all time high of 6,335. With Nifty surpassing most of important resistance zone of 5920-5930 this week and with no major signs of trend reversal, the up move could extend further.
F&O View
FIIs remained net buyers for the week bought heavily in cash segment, while remained net sellers in cash segment. Long addition was seen in Bank nifty. On option front, Highest OI is at 6200 call and 5800 put. Put writing was seen at 6000 strike, while 6100 put which is I-T-M option has witnessed buying in today trade. Nifty range for the week might be in the range of 5920-6150. Long build was seen in Banking, Realty and Oil & Gas sector.
FIIs/MFs activity
4,400 3,800 3,200 2,600 2,000 1,400 800 200 (Rs cr) Net FIIs inflow Net MFs Inflows
Advance/Decline
2,000 (No of stocks) 1,600 1,200 800 400 0
1-Jan
5.2 4.1 3.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.0
Advance Decline
14-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
19-Dec
20-Dec
21-Dec
24-Dec
26-Dec
27-Dec
28-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
19-Dec
20-Dec
21-Dec
24-Dec
26-Dec
26-Dec
27-Dec
28-Dec
Global performance
Nasdaq Dow Jones Hangseng Nikkei Shanghai Nifty Sensex 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2.9 2.8 3.5 4.7
31-Dec
Sectoral performance
BSE Realty BSE Oil & Gas BSE Small-Cap BSE Power BSE Bank BSE Metal BSE-200 BSE IT BSE Auto BSE Cap Goods BSE Pharma (0.8) BSE FMCG (1.0) 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
31-Dec
1-Jan
5.0
6.0
2-Jan
(400)
Technically strong
CMP (`) 202 354 72 66 1182 10 days Moving Average (`) 197 345 70 64 1145 Total Traded Qty (lacs) 2.5 0.6 11.1 2.4 1.6 10 days Average Traded Qty (lacs) 2.3 0.5 4.4 1.3 1.4
Technically weak
10 days Moving Average (`) 418 26 27 611 532 Total Traded Qty (lacs) 3.1 11.7 7.3 1.4 1.0 10 days Average Traded Qty (lacs) 1.7 5.8 4.2 0.3 0.5
Company Sesa Goa OBC Essar Oil Indian Hotels ICICI Bank
Company Cipla Bajaj Hind Ashok Leyland Lupin Fed Bank Ltd
Bulk deals
Date 03-Jan-13 Institution India Cap Fund Scrip name Zodiac Cloth Jindal Saw S Kumars PC Jeweller B/S S B S B Qty (lacs) 18.4 67.4 15.0 3.3 Price (`) 175.0 126.0 13.0 143.0
5900 5850 5800 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan
12500 12400 12300 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan
Precious metals
Gold prices commenced the week on a positive note, as hopes of an agreement on the US fiscal cliff negotiations underpinned the buying sentiment. In this regard, the House of Representatives and Senate struck a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. The deal consists of keeping most of the existing tax cuts intact except on individuals making over US$400,000 or households making US$450,000 per annum, much higher than Democrats initial yardstick of US$250,000. Nothing much is done on the spending cuts, which have been delayed for two months, as it seems that the Senate wants to buy some time on this. However after two months, the onus lies on the US congress for taking decisive measures on spending cuts and extensions of debt ceiling. However at this juncture, precious metals have lost substantial ground, paring all the recent gains related to the fiscal cliff euphoria. There could be a short term setback for the gold bugs, as US Federal Reserve now intends to end the bond buying programme before the end of 2013. The minutes of the latest policy meet reveal that Federal Reserve officials want to slow or stop asset purchases during this year, as the potential costs could rise due to the increasing size of Fed's balance sheet. Precious metals could remain under further pressure, if the US nonfarm payroll numbers for December comes higher than the 150,000 expected. Improving labour markets should strengthen the dollar and effectively weigh on the complex.
LME prices
Base Metals (US$/ton) Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Lead Precious Metals (US$/ounce) Gold Silver * Last Traded Price High 8,257 17,880 2,187 2,184 2,499 High 1,695 31 Low 7,875 17,025 2,050 2,058 2,308 Low 1,638 29 LTP* 8,098 17,376 2,072 2,106 2,357 LTP* 1,640 29 Chg(%) 2.7 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.0 Chg(%) (0.9) (2.0)
LME Copper
10500 9500 8500 7500 6500 5500
COMEX Gold
2050
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13
1000
dloG
)EML( reppoC
US$/ ton
US$/ ounce
NFO update
Fund Name HDFC FMP 462D Jan-13 Sr-24 (1) ICICI Pru FMP Sr-65-483D Plan E Indiabulls Gilt Fund Close 08-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan Type CE CE OE Class Debt Debt Debt
)PBG/RNI(
)DSU/ORUE(
)YPJ/RNI(
)DSU/RNI(
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
stcudorP GFM
noitalfnI ylhtnoM
etar PC htm3
edurC xemyN
xednI ralloD
edurC tnerB
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
6
12 16 10 12 14 0 4 8 0 2 4 6 8 (8) (4) (2)
Apr-10
100
Inflation
Chartbook
30
(%) (%)
Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source: Bloomberg
Currency Movements
10 12 14 16 18 2 4 6 8
Dollar Index
Interest Rate
75
80
85
90
95
(%)
(US $)
PMI
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
5,000
(%)
Apr-99
Jun-03 Apr-04
Jun-08
Apr-09 Feb-10
Dec-10 Oct-11
17x
13x
21x
Aug-12
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
XIV
Feb-05 Dec-05
SU enoZ oruE
Oct-06 Aug-07
Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12
anihC ynamreG aidnI
31YF
Kospi*
Taiwan*
Straits*
Sensex
41YF
Mexico Bolsa
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
Brazil Bovespa
31YF
Source: Bloomberg
Chartbook...
Volatility Index
Sensex PE Band
Feb-00 Dec-00
Oct-01 Aug-02
5x
200
9x
300
400
500
600
700
800
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
PE (x)
Dow Jones
(Rs)
Nasdaq
PE Comparision
S&P 500
FTSE
DAX
Hang Seng*
Nikkei*
Shanghai Comp
Event Calendar
Period : 07th 11th January
US Jan initial jobless claims (10 Jan) Nov wholesale inventories (10 Jan) Nov trade balance (11 Jan) Dec Imports & Exports YoY% (10-15 Jan) Dec Consumer price index yoy (9-13 Jan) Dec Producer price index (9-13 Jan) Dec Imports & Exports YoY% (10-13 Jan) Nov Euro-zone PPI YoY (8 Jan) Nov Euro-zone unemployment rate (8 Jan) ECB announces interest rates (10 Jan) US Advance Retail Sales (15 Jan) Producer Price Index (MoM) (15 Jan) Consumer Price Index (MoM) (16 Jan) Dec Imports & Exports YoY% (10-15 Jan) Monthly Wholesale Prices (14 Jan) CPI (YoY) (14 Jan) Actual FDI (YoY) (14-18 Jan) December Property Prices (18 Jan) Real GDP (YoY) (18 Jan) Euro-zone Trade Balance (15 Jan) Euro-zone CPI (16 Jan)
India China
India
China
Europe
Europe
IIFL, IIFL Centre, Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai 400 013 The information in this newsletter is generally provided from the press reports, electronic media, research, websites and other media. The information also includes information from interviews conducted, analysis, views expressed by our research team. Investors should not rely solely on the information contained in this publication and must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary. The materials and information provided by this newsletter are not, and should not be construed as an advice to buy or sell any of the securities named in this newsletter. India Infoline may or may not hold positions in any of the securities named in this newsletter as a part of its business. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. India Infoline does not assure for accuracy or correctness of information or reports in the newsletter.