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Agricultural Commodities Content News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Agricultural Commodities

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Kapas/Cotton

Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132 Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1,

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Agricultural Commodities News in brief Cooking oil imports seen climbing for a third month Cooking

Agricultural Commodities

News in brief

Cooking oil imports seen climbing for a third month

Cooking oil imports by India, the world’s second- largest consumer, probably climbed for a third month in February after palm oil prices tumbled and speculation of a tax increase spurred buying by refiners and traders. Purchases of vegetable oils, including those for industrial use, jumped 11 per cent to 975,000 tonnes last month from a year earlier, according to the median of estimates from five processors and brokers compiled by Bloomberg. Palm oil imports rose 21 per cent to 800,000 tonnes. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India will publish data this week.Increased demand from India, the world’s biggest palm oil importer, may help trim inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia. (Source:

Business Standard)

Tur dal prices set to rise 10- 15% in select markets

Tur dal (redgram) prices are set to rise by 10- 15 per cent to Rs. 45,000- 50,000 per tonne in select wholesale markets across the country in the coming quarter. The rise in prices is expected because of a lower crop this year after a drought in major producing states. Producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have reported 3040 per cent decline in tur dal production in kharif 2012. The decline in production was largely due to drought and late sowing in these states, according to data gathered from various sources. The prices of tur dal, which were ruling in the range of Rs. 3,000- 3,200 per tonne last year, have since shot up 30- 35 per cent. Every day, since the beginning of the season in December, the market has been witnessing increase in the prices of red gram. Starting off at around Rs. 37,000 per tonne at the beginning of the season, tur dal prices rose to Rs. 42,000 per tonne last week. The rise was aided by the market intervention scheme of the state government, which announced an additional support price of Rs. 650 per tonne over and above the minimum support price of Rs. 3,850 fixed by

the Central government. (Source: Business Standard)

Revised food Bill on Cabinet table this week, says Thomas

With just two weeks left for Parliament to go into recess, Food Minister K V Thomas is racing against time to seek the Union Cabinet's clearance for the revised National Food Security Bill this week for introduction in Parliament before it disperses for the one-month break. The Food Ministry has accepted many of the suggestions made by the parliamentary standing committee that studied the Bill the recommendations include doing away with the general and priority categorisation of beneficiaries and bringing down the monthly entitlement of 7 kg of foodgrain per family to 5 kg at Rs 1-3 and has sent it to the Law Ministry for vetting. Sources said top Food Ministry officials on Monday had a meeting with Law Ministry officials to push for early clearance of the revised draft of the Bill. Food Ministry officials said they were trying their best to take the draft to the Cabinet this week itself. "We can also propose convening of a special meeting of the Cabinet as was done in 2011," a source said. (Source: Indian Express)

Wheat stocks balloon even as storage infrastructure creaks

Just few weeks before the commencement of the wheat procurement drive for the current season, the government has wheat stocks in excess of 27 mt at the start of the month, which is far above requirements. Compared with the strategic reserve and buffer stock norm of 4 million tonne and 3 million tonne respectively, the government's wheat reserves are far higher, something that is expected to put enormous pressure on the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state government-owned agencies to create space for the purchasing new crop. The official wheat procurement for the current season starts from April 1. The government has set a record target of 44 mt for the current year against last year's purchase of close to 39 mt. On March 1, the total foodgrain stock (mostly consisting wheat and rice) with FCI was reported at more than 62 mt against the norm of only 21 mt. (Source: Financial Express)

the norm of only 21 mt. ( Source: Financial Express) Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| March 12,

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

Market Highlights (% change)

as on March 11, 2013

 

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Sensex

19646

-0.19

4.07

0.34

12.24

Nifty

5942

-0.06

4.28

0.06

11.41

INR/$

54.34

-0.02

-1.13

2.09

9.20

Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl

92.06

0.12

2.15

-3.93

-14.28

Comex Gold - $/oz

1578

0.08

0.36

-5.54

-7.78

.Source: Reuters

Efforts to increase export of agri commodities: Govt

Government on Monday said it is making all efforts to increase export of agricultural commodities, including wheat, rice, vegetables, meat and marine products, and India has emerged as the second highest exporter

in this sector. “The picture being painted that there has been a fall in

export of agricultural products is incorrect. Processed agricultural products, vegetables and fruits are being exported as part of India’s foreign trade policy,” Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma told the Lok Sabha during Question Hour. He emphasised that government is giving a 5 per cent export incentive to this sector. “It is under Open General Licence and there are no barriers,” Mr. Sharma said. The minister claimed that government is making all efforts to increase export of agricultural products and India is now the second highest exporter in this sector. (Source: The Hindu)

Cardamom loses flavour on slack demand

The cardamom market was easier/steady last week on slack demand at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu as a section of the buyers stayed away hoping the prices would decline further. Meanwhile, about a one- third of the buyers, who were said to have been inactive in the market for some time, were seen active last week. The average price of individual auctions dropped to below Rs 700 a kg. However, the exporters were to have bought about 50 tonnes of superior variety cardamom last week. “They were buying good quality above 7mm capsules bold and of better color at Rs 850-875 a kg”, P.C. Punnoose, General Manager, CPMC, told Business Line. (Source: Business Line)

Private wheat exporters to wait for UP crop

Private exporters, who had recently been allowed to dip into Central wheat stocks, said they would prefer to wait for the new crop in Uttar Pradesh. The wheat harvest for the current rabi season has started partially in Gujarat and is about to begin across North India by March- end. Recently, the Government decided to allow five million tonnes of wheat exports from its stocks by the private trade at Rs 1,480 a quintal, a move aimed at creating storage space for the upcoming crop. At the current exchange rate, this translates into a price of around $315 a tonne, higher than similar wheat from the US traded at $295 a tonne.

(Source: Business Line)

A.P. farmers seek Rs 1,000-cr market intervention fund

Farmers’ leaders and non-governmental organisations have asked the Andhra Pradesh Government to address issues that are dogging agriculture in the State as it prepares an exclusive Budget for agriculture. They have asked the Government to set up an Rs 1,000-crore fund for market stabilisation and an equal sum to act as guarantee to banks that give loans to tenant farmers. They have also asked the Government to protect farmers from exploitation by seed companies. (Source: Business Line)

Good demand lifts Kochi tea prices

A good demand perked up prices of almost all varieties of tea at the

Kochi tea auction. In Cochin Sale No.10, the demand was strong in the CTC dust grades and the quantity on offer was 8,50,002 kg. The market opened fully firm to dearer by Rs 3 to Rs 5. It appreciated further with longer margins of Rs 5 to Rs 10 as the sale progressed and sometimes more particularly towards the close of the sale. (Source: Business Line)

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Agricultural Commodities Chana After showing some signs of recovery last week, Chana futures settled 0.38%

Agricultural Commodities

Chana

After showing some signs of recovery last week, Chana futures settled 0.38% lower on Monday as arrivals increased further in the domestic markets. Higher output expectations is also capping upside in the prices. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.41% and 0.21% lower on Monday.

In the union budget 2013-14, although no direct move was considered for Pulses, still The Finance Minister expressed concern about the supply- demand mismatch in pulses. He said that the aggregate demand is a concern. Stating that food inflation is worrying, he said the government would take all steps to augment the supply side.

Pulses Sowing 2012-13

According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22 nd February 2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at

15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence.

Demand supply fundamentals

According to second advance Estimates released on 8 th Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.

Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at

5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn

tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.

There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn.

Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:

Agriwatch).

Trade Scenario

India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. In Canada chickpea output is estimated at 1.58 lakh tonnes compared with 86000 tn in 2011-12.

Outlook

Increasing arrivals of new crop from MP may exert downside pressure on the domestic prices of the new crop coupled with higher imports may cap sharp upside. Also, prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 as farmers will not liquidate their produce below these levels.

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

levels. Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| March 12, 2013 Market Highlights as on March 11, 2013  

Market Highlights

as on March 11, 2013

 

% change

 
 

Unit

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi)

Rs/qtl

3500

-1.41

1.27

-3.02

-4.23

Chana- NCDEX

Rs/qtl

3372

-0.21

1.93

-1.58

-6.67

Apr'13 Futures

 

Technical Chart - Chana

Source: Reuters

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Chana Source: Reuters NCDEX April contract Technical Outlook Source: Telequote valid for Mar

Technical Outlook

Source: Telequote

valid for Mar 12, 2013

Contract

Unit

Support

Resistance

Chana Apr Futures

Rs./qtl

3340-3355

3390-3410

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Agricultural Commodities Sugar Sugar futures declined yesterday on account of profit taking at higher levels.

Agricultural Commodities

Sugar

Sugar futures declined yesterday on account of profit taking at higher levels. Also demand from the bulk consumers is lower than expected, which also exerted downside pressure. High supplies in the physical markets and delay in lifting curbs on the controlled sector by the government also pressurized prices. Prices traded on a positive note last week as some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane. Reports that the government may partially decontrol sugar this week also supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.36% and 0.84% lower on Monday.

The government has decided not to increase import duty on sugar though industry bodies and manufacturers had demanded a hike in the duty to 60% from the current 10% to curb shipment of the sweetener.

India’s Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that they are favoring Food Ministry’s proposal to increase the production tax on Sugar from the current Rs. 0.71/kg by Rs. 1.5/kg if mills were freed from an obligation to sell the sweetener at lower prices for public distribution.

India's sugar production in the 2013/14 season is set to fall below consumption for the first time in four years as a water shortage trims acreage in three key states.

Domestic Production and Exports

Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, India produced 13.7 mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3 percent a year ago period.

With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe white sugar as well as raw sugar futures on ICE traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 0.21% and 0.37% higher on account of active short coverings and reports that more cane will be diverted towards ethanol due to better realisation. A global surplus situation coupled with ample supplies has led the prices to a sharp decline. Currently the prices are trading around their 2½ year lows. Prices also declined as ISO forecasted higher global sugar surplus. Brazil exported 1.21 mt of raw sugar in February, vs 1.73 mt in January.

The ISO forecasted a global sugar surplus of 8.526 mn tn in 2012/13, up from 6.479 mn tn in 2011-12. It forecast that the sugar stocks-to- consumption ratio would rise to 40.56 percent in 2012/13 from 38.21 percent in 2011/12.

Sugar traders are the most bullish since October on speculation that the slump in prices to the lowest in 2 1/2 years will spur Brazilian millers to make more biofuel and less of the raw sweetener from cane.

Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of the biofuel. If brazil cuts tax the ethanol parity to sugar may rise and thus the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14 season may be 44 -45%, down from 49.6 % in the current period.

Outlook

Sugar prices may trade on a mixed note. Advanced closure of mills in Maharashtra may support prices. Reports that the government may go ahead with the decontrol may also support prices. Yield concerns over next year’s output may also support prices. Also, demand from the bulk manufacturers ahead of the summers may support prices levels. However, huge supplies in the domestic markets may pressurize prices.

Commodities Daily Report

 

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

as on March 11, 2013

as on March 11, 2013

Market Highlights

 
 

% Change

 
 

Unit

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur)

Rs/qtl

3139

-0.36

-0.81

-1.34

8.56

Sugar M- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures

Rs/qtl

3020

-0.33

0.83

-0.03

7.82

 

Source: Reuters

International Prices

 

as on March 11, 2013

 

% Change

 

Unit

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Sugar No 5- Liffe- May'13 Futures

$/tonne

535.2

0.21

3.80

9.14

-15.28

Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures

$/tonne

418.22

0.37

4.09

3.63

-20.82

 

.Source: Reuters

Technical

Chart - Sugar

 

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Sugar   NCDEX April contract Technical Outlook Source: Telequote valid for Mar 12,

Technical Outlook

Source: Telequote

valid for Mar 12, 2013

Contract

Unit

Support

Resistance

Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures

Rs./qtl

3050-3060

3090-3115

www.angelcommodities.com

Agricultural Commodities Oilseeds Soybean : Soybean April traded on a positive note around its higher

Agricultural Commodities

Oilseeds

Soybean: Soybean April traded on a positive note around its higher levels in nearly 6 months on account of poor supplies in the domestic markets. Delay in shipments from Latin America and tight supplies in the US also supported the prices. The spot as well as the April futures settled 2.48% and 0.6% higher on Monday. Oil meal exports declined 6.2% in February compared to last month, industry body Solvent Extractors Association of India said. Exports declined as importers are waiting the arrivals of the new crop from Latin America. Also, farmers are holding back their crop. The country exported 25.36 lakh tn soybean meal in first 10 months compared to 30.82 lakh tn in the same period last year which showing a decline of 17.72%. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

International Markets

Soybean Futures on CBOT gained marginally by 0.41% on Monday after the USDA monthly crop report kept the Brazil output unchanged at 83.5 mn tn. However, it reduced Argentina’s crop forecast from 53 mn tn to 51.5 mn tn. Strong export demand and tight supplies of the old crop also supported the prices. German oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 mn tn to 50 mn tn from its Jan estimates because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop by 0.5 mn tn. Argentina soybean acreage is estimated at 19.35 mn ha. U.S. farmers will harvest record soybean crops in 2013, ending three years of falling production and rebuilding nearly depleted stockpiles. U.S. soybean processors say they have been pleasantly surprised by the high oil content of the latest U.S. soybean harvest, a factor that has contributed to strong profit margins and should pad year-end soy oil inventories.

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as CPO declined by 0.72% and 0.26% respectively yesterday due to higher imports of palm oil. Lead speakers in the Palm Oil Conference have forecasted lower prices due to rising supplies. Higher global production estimates of palm oil by oil world have pressurized prices at higher levels. Global palm oil output is estimated at 55.3 mn tn in 2012-13, up by 3.4 mn tn. India's vegetable oil imports soared 27 percent from a month ago to an all-time high in January on purchases of cheap palm oil. To curb imports, the tariff value of crude palm oil, the edible oil India imports most, has been raised from $ 815 a tonne to $ 848 a tonne, a rise of 4.04%.

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained by 0.92% on Monday on account of thin supplies of the new crop. Value buying at lower levels is also seen. Arrivals have commenced in Rajasthan and thus may pressurize prices. Mustard seed sowing is now up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%. MSP of mustard seed is fixed at Rs 3000 per qtl.

Outlook

Soybean may trade higher due to lower supplies in the domestic. Mustard seed may also trade higher on account of value buying at lower levels. However, arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices at higher levels. Soy oil and CPO may continue to decline on account of forecast of higher supplies. However prices may find support on expectations that output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

yield. Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| March 12, 2013 Market Highlights   as on March 11, 2013

Market Highlights

 

as on March 11, 2013

 

% Change

 
 

Unit

 

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

 

YoY

Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore)

 

Rs/qtl

 

3642

2.48

6.93

9.53

 

29.56

Soybean- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures

Rs/qtl

 

3584

0.42

8.43

8.56

 

28.14

Ref Soy oil Spot- NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs

685.5

0.01

0.05

-6.64

 

-5.06

Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures

Rs/10 kgs

688.6

-0.23

1.65

-4.92

 

-3.99

 

Source: Reuters

 

as on March 11, 2013

 

Prev

International Prices

Unit

 

Last

day

WoW

MoM

 

YoY

 

USc/

 

Soybean- CBOT-

Bushel

 

1515

 

0.41

1.64

1.88

 

13.85

Mar'13 Futures

Soybean Oil - CBOT- Mar'13 Futures

USc/lbs

 

50.24

 

0.16

0.38

-3.11

 

-6.32

 

Source: Reuters

 

Crude Palm Oil

as on March 11, 2013

 

% Change

 
 

Prev

     
 

Unit

 

Last

day

WoW

MoM

 

YoY

CPO-Bursa Malaysia Mar '13 Contract

       

MYR/Tonne

 

2440

 

0.25

1.67

-1.65

 

-26.84

CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures

Rs/10 kg

 

457

-0.26

-0.44

1.17

 

-18.39

 

Source: Reuters

RM Seed

as on March 11, 2013

   

Prev

 

Unit

Last

 

day

WoW

MoM

 

YoY

RM Seed Spot- NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs

 

3608

 

1.00

0.96

-4.67

 

0.23

RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Rs/100 kgs

 

3497

 

0.92

3.95

3.13

 

-4.58

 

Source: Reuters

 

Technical

Chart Soybean

 

NCDEX April contract

Chart – Soybean   NCDEX April contract Technical Outlook Source: Telequote valid for Mar 12, 2013

Technical Outlook

Source: Telequote

valid for Mar 12, 2013

Contract

Unit

Support

Resistance

Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures

Rs./qtl

672-675

684-688

Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures

Rs./qtl

3505-3530

3590-3625

RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Mar Futures

Rs./qtl

3435-3465

3525-3555

Rs./qtl

453-455

458-461

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Agricultural Commodities h Black Pepper Pepper Futures recovered sharply yesterday on account of short coverings

Agricultural Commodities

h

Black Pepper

Pepper Futures recovered sharply yesterday on account of short coverings coupled with low stocks in the warehouses. Thin supplies and delayed harvesting on back of to lack of skilled laborers also supported prices. Increasing arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka pressurized prices last week. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.98% and 1.83% higher Monday.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course.

Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha.

Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,700/tn. Vietnam’s Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Exports and Imports

India’s pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer.

(Source: Agriwatch)

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped 12000 mt of pepper in January 2013.

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 26 tonnes while off takes were reported at 26 tonnes on Monday.

As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year.

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook

Pepper is expected to trade lower today as improvement in arrivals may pressurize prices further. However, low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels.

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

levels. Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| March 12, 2013 Market Highlights   as on March 11, 2013

Market Highlights

 

as on March 11, 2013

 

% Change

 
 

Unit

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Pepper Spot-

Rs/qtl

36858

0.98

-3.58

-8.66

-9.83

NCDEX (Kochi)

 

Pepper- NCDEX

Rs/qtl

36425

1.95

-0.91

-5.95

-10.81

Mar'13 Futures

 

Technical Chart Black Pepper

Source: Reuters

NCDEX April contract

– Black Pepper Source: Reuters NCDEX April contract Technical Outlook Source: Telequote valid for Mar 12,

Technical Outlook

Source: Telequote

valid for Mar 12, 2013

Contract

Unit

Support

Resistance

Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures

Rs/qtl

33870-34330

35120-35440

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Agricultural Commodities Jeera Jeera Futures corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled

Agricultural Commodities

Jeera

Jeera Futures corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled with arrival pressure. Prices traded on a positive note last week due to fresh export demand. Demand of the new crop is low due to high moisture content. The arrivals of new crop are averaging around 20,000 bags/ day and are expected to improve in the coming days. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1% and 0.15% lower on Monday.

According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations.

Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,500 tn (c&f Europe) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 32,000 tn on Monday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Outlook

Jeera Futures trade may gain today on account of fresh export as well as domestic demand. However, increasing arrivals may pressurize prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric

Turmeric Futures traded on a positive note yesterday but declined from higher levels on account of profit booking. Fresh export enquiries coupled with output concerns pushed up prices last week. Traders have received fresh orders from Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, Kolkata and some other places. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes. The Spot remained closed due to Amavasya while the Futures settled 0.06% higher on Monday.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 6,000 bags and 10,000 bags respectively on Friday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next year’s carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags.

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

Market Highlights

as on March 11, 2013
as on March 11, 2013
 

% Change

 
 

Prev

 
 

Unit

Last

day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha)

Rs/qtl

13364

-1.00

0.43

-3.61

-1.05

Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures

Rs/qtl

13115

-0.15

0.67

0.11

-1.15

Technical Chart Jeera

Source: Reuters

NCDEX April contract

Chart – Jeera Source: Reuters NCDEX April contract Source: Telequote Market Highlights   as on March

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights

 

as on March 11, 2013

   

% Change

 
 

Prev

 

Unit

Last

day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Turmeric Spot-

Rs/qtl

5779

0.00

6.73

8.15

33.11

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

 

Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl

6622

0.06

7.26

6.57

48.28

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

48.28 Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX April contract Technical Outlook Source: Telequote V alid for Mar

Technical Outlook

Source: Telequote

Valid for Mar 12, 2013

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

   

Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade on a positive note today on reports of fresh export enquiries. Reports of crop damage coupled with lower output concerns and demand from stockists may also support prices. Demand for the new crop is low due to high moisture content.

Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures

Rs/qtl

13010-13110

13290-13370

Turmeric NCDEX April Futures

Rs/qtl

6480-6550

6750-6870

 

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Agricultural Commodities Kapas NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton declined by 1.38% and 1.23%

Agricultural Commodities

Kapas

NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton declined by 1.38% and 1.23% respectively on Monday on demand from the traders to government agencies (Cotton Corp of India) to release the stocks procured by them. There is some buying interest seen from China which has raised expectations of export demand. However, a sharp downside was capped as government decided to continue with current cotton exports policy.

Traders expect exports to cross government’s estimates of 8 mn bales. Finance Minister announced various incentives and policies in the Union Budget to support the ailing textile industry.

Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Board’s (CAB) estimates (23 th Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous year’s estimates of 353 lakh bales.

However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports.

After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton settled 0.18% lower on Monday after hitting a 10 month high on account of profit taking. USDA cuts global cotton stock estimates on higher demand which cushioned a sharp downside in the prices. Buying by mills has also lifted the prices. Expectations of good demand from China supported prices at lower levels.

U.S. growers will harvest the smallest cotton crop in four years and notch the smallest exports in 12 years as world demand for the fiber drops, especially in China.

0

At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA projected a crop of 14 million bales from planted acreage of 10 million acres. Plantings would be the smallest in four years and down 19 percent from last year.

The crop, projected to be down 18 percent from 2012, would be the smallest since 2009.

China is planning to issue more cotton import quotas to export- dependent textile mills that are struggling to protect margins as domestic prices soar due to a state stockpiling plan.

However, according to USDA, the world's largest cotton grower and user, will import the smallest amount of cotton, 8 million bales, in five years in 2013/14 as it copes with huge domestic reserves.

Outlook

Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note. Prices may decline as the traders have demanded the government to release the stocks procured by them. However, prices may find support at lower levels on expectations of good export demand. Various policy announcements to support the textile industry may support prices. Also the prices may take cues from firmness in the international markets. Expectations that China may release higher import quota which might boost imports also supported an upside in the cotton prices. Also, expected lower US cotton acreage and output in 2013-14 may also support prices at lower levels.

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 12, 2013

levels. Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| March 12, 2013 Market Highlights as on March 11, 2013  

Market Highlights

as on March 11, 2013

 

%

Change

 

Unit

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Rs/20 kgs

965

-1.38

0.36

8.86

#N/A

Rs/Bale

18510

-1.23

1.65

1.65

11.04

 

Source: Reuters

International Prices

 

as on March 11, 2013

 

%

Change

 

Unit

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

YoY

ICE Cotton

USc/Lbs

86.72

-0.18

2.13

6.54

-1.45

Cot look A Index

81.35

0.00

0.00

0.00

-29.20

Technical Chart - Kapas

Source: Reuters

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Kapas Source: Reuters NCDEX April contract Technical Chart - Cotton Source: Telequote MCX

Technical Chart - Cotton

Source: Telequote

MCX March contract

Chart - Cotton Source: Telequote MCX March contract Technical Outlook Source: Telequote valid for Mar 12,

Technical Outlook

Source: Telequote

valid for Mar 12, 2013

Contract

Unit

Support

Resistance

Kapas NCDEX April Futures

Rs/20 kgs

950-960

980-990

Cotton MCX March Futures

Rs/bale

18250-18370

18730-18960

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