Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
AN
SMU
ECONOMICS
INTELLIGENCE
CLUB
PRODUCTION
-
Demystifying
Indias
Budget
for
2013-14
-
The
Ghost
of
Mao
and
Confucius
behind
the
Internet
Censorship
in
China
-
ASEANs
Economic
Integration
(Part
2)
The
Fortnight
In
Brief
(4th
March
to
17 th
March)
US:
Recovery
vs.
Sequestration
The
February
jobs
report
released
8
March
saw
non-farm
payroll
employment
increase
by
236,000
jobs
in
professional
and
business
services,
b uilding
and
healthcare,
further
pushing
unemployment
down
0.2%
to
7.7%,
the
lowest
levels
since
Dec
2008.
The
better
than
expected
jobs
report
amidst
sequestration
cuts
pushed
the
Dow
Jones
to
new
highs.
Consumer
sentiments
on
the
other
hand
fell
to
its
lowest
since
Dec
2011
as
consumer
weighed
the
higher
payroll
tax
and
potential
effects
of
sequester.
Manufacturing
continues
to
lead
the
recovery
as
output
in
factories,
m ines
and
utilities
edged
up
0.7%,
exceeding
projections.
Housing
construction
is
also
expected
to
provide
the
tailwind
propelling
growth
this
year.
Asia
Pacific:
Chinas
Commitment
and
Australias
Deficit
Chinese
Premier
Li
Keqiang
has
expressed
the
need
for
China
to
maintain
a
7.5%
economic
growth
through
2020
to
double
its
per
capita
income.
He
reiterated
Chinas
stance
to
expand
domestic
demand
and
vowed
to
fight
graft
while
cutting
regulations
and
bureaucracy.
Meanwhile,
Australia
has
taken
a
massive
hit
to
government
revenue.
The
national
budget
fell
A$4.6
billion
into
deficit
in
the
first
month
of
2013,
increasing
the
shortfall
to
A$26.8
billion.
This
is
owing
to
weaker
growth,
lower
prices
for
Australias
resources
and
a
strong
local
currency.
EU:
Setting
Priorities
for
the
EU
European
Union
(EU)
leaders
met
last
week
to
set
economic
and
social
policy
priorities
for
the
27-
nation
bloc,
with
many
countries
still
struggling
with
recession
and
record
unemployment,
coupled
with
weak
investor
confidence
in
the
euro.
Known
as
the
European
Semester,
the
system
aims
to
shape
policies
in
line
with
EU
goals
at
an
early
stage.
For
countries
that
have
already
broken
deficit
rules,
the
EU
will
deal
with
them
using
the
excessive
deficit
procedure.
For
2013,
the
economic
and
social
priorities
for
the
EU
are:
1)
Pursuing
differentiated,
growth-friendly
fiscal
consolidation.
2)
Restoring
normal
lending
to
the
economy.
3)
Promoting
growth
and
competitiveness.
4)
Tackling
unemployment
and
social
consequences
of
the
crisis.
5)
Modernizing
public
administration.
1570
1560
1550
1540
1530
1520
IN COLLABORATION WITH
PROUDLY
SUPPORTED
BY
STOXX
Europe
600
S&P 500
Source:
Frontier
Strategy
Group
Given
the
historical
trend
of
over-promising
and
under-delivering
(see
graphs
above),
Indias
newly
appointed
Finance
Minister
P.
Chidambaram
has
set
the
budget
for
a
relatively
neutral
course
with
no
dramatic
proposals
or
highly
unrealistic
targets.
The
2013-14
Union
Budget
focuses
around
increasing
the
planned
spending,
cutting
down
of
subsidies2,
and
encouraging
more
investment.
Companies
should
be
encouraged
by
the
governments
plan
to
increase
the
size
of
the
overall
expenditure
by
16.4%,
majority
of
which
will
come
from
increase
in
planned
outlay
(see
graph
below)
while
reducing
the
non-planned
expenditure,
which
entails
interest
payments,
subsidies
and
defence.
Figure
2:
Planned
Increase
in
Government
Spending
50% 29% 18% 7% 22% 30%
Recommended
Proposals
New
regulatory
authority
setup
to
speed-up
road
projects:
3000
km
of
road
projects
will
be
awarded
in
the
first
six
months
of
2013-14
Delhi
Mumbai
Industrial
Corridor
(DMIC)
to
be
provided
additional
funds
Two
new
ports
will
be
established
in
West
Bengal
(Eastern
India)
and
in
Andhra
Pradesh
(Southeastern
India)
Work
begins
on
two
smart
industrial
cities
in
Gujarat
and
Maharashtra
Infrastructure
tax-free
bond
of
up
to
US$10
billion
available
to
raise
funds
Cabinet
Committee
on
Investment
(CCI)
set
up
to
speed
fast-track
large
projects
Companies
investing
US$20
million
or
more
in
plant
and
machinery
between
2013
and
2015
will
be
entitled
to
deduct
an
investment
allowance
of
15%
of
the
investment
expense
Confirmation
of
the
Land
Acquisition
Bill
will
likely
bring
significant
clarity
for
investors
Further
interest
rate
cuts
by
the
Reserve
Bank
of
India
(RBI)
likely
to
improve
the
investment
environment
Subsidy
as
a
percentage
of
GDP
is
budgeted
to
fall
by
11%
Petroleum
subsidy
cut
by
a
sharp
33%
Fertilizer
subsidy
has
been
left
unchanged
(flat)
Food
subsidy
increased
by
6%
(already
accounts
for
35-40%
of
the
total
subsidy
bill)
Effective
corporate
tax
rate
for
foreign
companies
revised
from
42.02%
to
43.26%
Citizens
with
an
income
of
US$185,000
or
more
to
pay
10%
surcharge
Tax
relief
for
very-low-income
individuals
through
token
tax-credit
Disinvestment
target
more
than
doubled
to
more
than
US$10
billion
Majority
of
the
target
is
to
be
met
by
selling
minority
stakes
in
the
public
sector
enterprises
Infrastructure
Investments
Subsidies
Direct Taxes
Disinvestment
Source: Union Budget 2013-14, Times of India, Economic Times Mapping Policy Movements: Focus on Tackling Indias Fiscal Deficit3 The FY2014 Union Budget has received mixed reactions from the private sector as proposed policy changes appear more favourable to certain sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing. Moreover, while an increase in planned investments is seen as a positive sign, the Finance Minister has left some unanswered questions when it comes to tackling the persistent issue of a ballooning fiscal deficit. The graph below not only highlights the impact of various proposals on the business environment, but also considers their likelihood of implementation, given the low level of trust in the Indian Government.
Source: Frontier Strategy Group, Own Estimates The positions occupied by dis-investment and subsidies on the graph above tell an interesting story. It is worth mentioning now that these are the two tools being utilized by the government to reduce Indias fiscal deficit. When it comes to subsidies, the argument that subsidy cuts will be difficult to implement is almost universally acceptable. While the government expects cuts in petroleum expenditure, it is also likely to take on a populist approach in a pre-election year. Furthermore, the governments subsidy target last year was 1.9% of GDP, whereas revised estimates are well over 2.5%. Failure to implement the planned subsidy cuts would result in the government overshooting its Non-Plan Expenditure once again. Moving on to dis-investments, this process involves the sale of the governments stake in state-run companies. Divestment receipts as a % of target for financial years 2011, 2012, and 2013 were 57%, 45%, and 80% respectively. Achieving the targeted divestment of Rs.558,140 million (>US$10 billion) the highest ever target set is thus unlikely to say the least. This suggests the government may fall well short of collecting its targeted revenue, as it fails to generate cash by using subsidy cuts and divestments in state-run companies. Key Signposts: Four Movements to Closely Monitor in 2013 Following are some specific milestones that the private sector should have on their radar for 2013, in order to gauge the pace and direction of the changing political environment during this crucial pre-election year: 1. Parliamentary Debates on Reforms During Budget Session (February to May): The budget is one of the many avenues for introducing policies. As such, stakeholders in the 4 Copyright 2012 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
Indian
economy
should
monitor
progress
on
the
debates
in
the
parliament
during
the
budget
session
where
items
that
were
not
mentioned
in
the
budget
would
be
debated.
These
will
include
debate
on
the
GST
reform,
implementation
of
the
land-acquisition
bill
and
possible
clarification
of
reforms
introduced
last
year.
2.
State
Level
Elections
(March
to
December):
While
the
general
elections
are
to
take
place
in
2014,
there
are
eight
state-elections
that
will
take
place
in
2013.
These
elections
should
offer
a
good
indication
of
the
voters
opinion
of
the
two
major
parties;
BJP
and
Congress.
Of
the
eight,
elections
in
Karnataka,
Madhya
Pradesh
and
Rajasthan
will
be
crucial
as
they
represent
relatively
larger
number
of
seats
in
the
lower
house.
3.
Dis-Investment
in
State
Run
Companies
(April
Onwards):
With
the
dis-investment
target
being
more
than
doubled
this
year
to
improve
the
countrys
fiscal
situation,
the
government
needs
to
begin
selling
its
stake
in
the
public-companies
as
early
as
possible.
The
private
sector
should
monitor
the
amount
of
money
being
raised
through
the
sale
as
compared
to
targets,
as
the
fiscal
deficit
is
currently
in
a
vulnerable
condition.
4.
Further
Uncovering
of
Corruption
Scandals
(All
of
2013):
The
Congress
Party
has
faced
several
corruption
scandals
during
its
current
tenure
including
the
telecom-licenses
debacle
which
cost
the
country
US$40billion
and
major
mismanagement
of
the
Commonwealth
Games.
Uncovering
of
any
new
large
corruption
scandals
against
the
Congress
Party
would
have
strong
negative
repercussions
on
their
general
elections
of
2014.
1The
Indian
National
Congress,
commonly
known
as
Congress,
is
currently
the
ruling
party
and
one
of
the
two
major
political
parties
in
India,
the
other
being
the
Bharatiya
Janata
party
(BJP).
2
A
benefit
given
by
the
government
to
groups
or
individuals,
usually
in
the
form
of
a
cash
payment
or
tax
reduction,
that
is
considered
to
be
in
the
interest
of
the
public.
3
A
fiscal
deficit
occurs
when
a
government's
total
expenditures
exceed
the
revenue
that
it
generates
(excluding
money
from
borrowings).
It
differs
from
debt,
which
is
an
accumulation
of
yearly
deficits.
Sources:
1. Union
Budget
2013-14,
Times
of
India,
Economic
Times,
Frontier
Strategy
Group
The
Ghost
of
Mao
and
Confucius
behind
the
Internet
Censorships
in
China
By
Tan
Kwan
Hong,
Singapore
Management
University
The
Ghost
of
Mao
In
1949,
Mao
announced
the
formation
of
the
Peoples
Republic
of
China,
after
decades
of
Civil
War
and
unrest.
Confident
that
he
had
finally
gained
the
respect
of
his
comrades
and
people
throughout
the
country,
Mao,
in
subsequent
years
tried
to
consult
the
Chinese
people
expecting
at
worst
mild
criticisms.
But
to
his
surprise,
Mao
and
his
policies
were
received
with
an
outpouring
of
harsh
criticisms.
Mao
became
disappointed
by
the
reactions
to
his
policies,
and
decided
to
put
an
end
to
it
by
labeling
them
rightist1.
This
move
led
to
the
advent
of
the
Anti-Rightist
purge2,
where
anyone
who
were
opposed
to
Maos
views,
be
it
comrades
in
the
party
or
people
in
the
farmlands,
were
purged.
Mao
did
not
care.
Surrounded
by
yes-men,
he
was
now
free
to
pursue
his
own
policies.
Few
in
Maos
party
knew
which
direction
he
would
lead
the
country
towards.
Maos
love
for
movement
and
upheaval
was
evident
from
the
way
he
behaved.
Although
it
has
been
decades
since
Maos
passing,
the
ghost
of
Mao
still
persists,
at
least
in
the
online
community.
On
the
surface
it
seemed
that
the
Chinese
Communist
Party
was
dominant,
directing
China
confidently
and
with
gusto
-
from
her
economic
growth
through
the
monetary
system
and
Five
Year
Plans,
to
internet
censorship
policies,
and
the
social
media
companies
that
manage
these
online
channels
-
charting
a
new
path
to
Chinese
global
dominance
in
the
New
World
Order.
However,
deep
inside
the
Chinese
government
lurked
a
profound
sense
of
insecurity,
reminiscent
of
the
feelings
that
Mao
had
in
the
1950s
when
he
first
tried
to
consult
the
people.
The
advent
of
the
internet
led
to
a
loss
of
communicative
control
by
the
Chinese
Government,
making
it
very
difficult
for
the
party
to
manage
a
consistent
and
desirable
identity
in
front
of
her
1.3
billion
citizens,
and
a
world
that
closely
scrutinizes
its
every
move.
This
sense
of
insecurity
soon
led
to
a
pervasive
system
of
internet
control
seldom
seen
in
advanced
countries,
or
even
in
Chinas
East
Asian
counterparts.
Such
a
move
highlighted
the
inability
of
the
Chinese
Government
to
create
an
ecosystem
in
which
to
engage
its
people
in
peaceful
public
discourse
on
a
wide
variety
of
views.
Such
insecurity
can
be
interpreted
as
having
a
lack
of
mutual
trust
in
its
people;
the
very
same
perception
that
Mao
had
decades
ago.
It
is
also
due
to
this
very
insecurity
that
such
blocking
of
sites
and
censorship
occurred.
Censorship
was
thought
to
be
the
easiest
way
out
with
the
lowest
transaction
and
administrative
cost
(in
the
economic
sense)
to
operate,
as
opposed
to
the
perceived
opportunity
costs
of
permitting
public
discourse
which
is
far
greater
(due
to
the
cost
of
risk
undertaken
through
the
alternative
path
of
having
more
dialogues
and
open
discussions
of
policies).
The
creation
of
the
Chinese
alternatives
(Weibo,
Ren
Ren,
QQ)
to
global
social
media
sites
like
Facebook
and
Twitter
effectively
minimized
political
participation
and
interaction
with
foreigners,
and
Chinese
nationals
living
overseas
that
might
have
a
potentially
different
view
to
that
of
Chinas
political
elites.
6 Copyright 2012 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
So, did the specter of Mao really exist online? To a large extent, yes. The Chinese Government, in not wanting to suffer the same risk that Mao undertook, preferred instead to take a cautious stand. Such a choice stemmed from the fact that Asians, at their very heart, are still a society heavily influenced by Confucianism where citizens are not expected to out-rightly challenge the Emperor (now the government), who has the mandate to rule over the land. Although imperialism in China has ceased to exist, there remains an implied compliance by the Chinese citizens, where any outright challenge to the government is neither expected nor encouraged. This influence of Confucianism3 on many Asian societies is one of the reasons why authoritative governments have thrived in East Asian countries - think Jiang Jie Shi, General Park Chung Hee, and Lee Kuan Yew. The Ghost of Confucius And likewise, the ghost of Confucianism is also a reason why traditionally, Asian governments tend to struggle more when societal unrest occurs. This struggle stems from the lack of pro- activeness in stakeholder management, which is evident in the contrast between Western and Eastern government response to such situations. In Western democracies where liberty and rights to free speech are the norm and a high degree of compliance as preached by Confucius is not expected, non-governmental organizations and public activism are seen as part of the political architecture of the nation. Governments, prior to their election tend to be proactive in engaging these stakeholders (e.g. a politician who engages in actively garnering support and funds for their campaigns, years before the elections). It is also in such Western political platforms where the academic field of crisis and strategic communications is developed (an inherent Western concept to begin with), providing governments better methods to deal with these unrests. This example further indicates that players in these political platforms are more prepared than their East Asian counterparts when it comes to proactively dealing with social and political unrest. In contrast, East Asian governments, to a larger degree expect general compliance from the populace, and will tend to adopt a more passive approach to quell unrest. The main mechanisms they use are also primitive: harsh laws and regulations, an education system that encourages compliance with the law, and even adopting control over the mainstream media. Such tactics have existed for centuries, but do not work very well in the Internet age, where the loss of communicative control by governments and the mainstream media has become increasingly prevalent, and its effects widely felt. Despite technological advances that have helped perpetuate an arguably Western concept of individual rights to free speech, the Chinese government, still largely influenced by Confucianism expects almost absolute compliance from its people In conclusion, pervasive internet controls and censorship that are prevalent in China can be seen from two dominant angles: The Ghost of Mao (in terms of the CCP not wanting to repeat the mistake that Mao made in the past, and to risk losing mandate of the people) and The Ghost of Confucianism (in terms of expected compliance from its people, and suppressing platforms that encourage noncompliance). Such views are often overlooked by academics and analysts alike, but are crucial in identifying the often-overlooked insecurity and the lack of 7 Copyright 2012 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
trust
that
the
Chinese
Government
still
faces
till
today,
behind
the
faade
of
her
dominant
appearance.
1
Rightists
adopt
a
political
stance
that
accepts
or
supports
social
hierarchy
or
social
inequality.
Social
hierarchy
and
social
inequality
is
viewed
by
those
affiliated
with
the
Right
as
either
inevitable,
natural,
normal,
or
desirable,
whether
it
arises
through
traditional
social
differences
or
from
competition
in
market
economies.
2
The
Anti-Rightist
Movement,
which
lasted
from
roughly
1957
to
1959,
consisted
of
a
series
of
campaigns
to
purge
alleged
"rightists"
within
the
Communist
Party
of
China
(CPC)
and
abroad.
3
The
system
of
ethics,
education,
and
statesmanship
taught
by
Confucius
and
his
disciples, stressing love for humanity, ancestor worship, reverence for parents, and harmony in thought and conduct.
ASEANs
Economic
Integration:
Looking
at
the
EU,
Should
the
ASEAN
Region
Integrate
Faster
and
Further?
(Part
2)
By
Ng
Yongxiang,
Singapore
Management
University
Previously,
Yongxiang
provided
an
overview
of
ASEANs
and
EUs
integration
histories.
In
this
issue,
he
delves
deeper
to
examine
the
EU
regions
integration
history
to
draw
conclusions
for
ASEAN
The
Initiative
for
ASEAN
Integration
(IAI)
was
drawn
up
in
2000
to
narrow
the
development
gap1,
particularly
between
the
ASEAN-6
and
CLMV.
This
initiative
focuses
on
four
areas
of
priority,
namely
infrastructure
development,
human
resource
development,
information
and
communications
technology,
and
promoting
regional
economic
integration
in
the
CLMV
countries
to
help
achieve
the
vision
of
the
AEC.
The
major
problem
with
this
initiative
is
the
lack
of
funding
and
the
withdrawal
of
ambitious
pledges.
Lack
of
political
will
to
ensure
successful
implementations
of
strategies
is
also
amongst
the
issue
that
plague
ASEAN.
The
EU
experienced
similar
economic
divergence
in
its
member
states
during
the
mid-stages
of
integration
but
the
gap
was
greatly
reduced
with
deliberate
and
concerted
efforts,
as
well
as
the
effective
use
of
policy
tools
including
that
of
the
structural
funds.
At
the
national
level,
there
is
considerable
difference
in
the
tariff1
structure.
Excluding
Singapore,
the
tariff
structures
of
other
countries
by
sectors
vary
prominently.
Figure
2:
Tariffs
of
ASEAN
Countries
by
Sectors
Tariffs tend to be insignificant in the electronic equipment and general machinery industries, signalling a comparative advantage in these sectors. For an ACU to be successfully introduced, the diversity in tariff structures must be harmonized. Other issues that could potentially act as deterrence include the pooling of sovereignty over their own commercial policies, fiscal shock for some countries and the collection of revenue from the CET. An ACU is currently not tabled by ASEAN but I emphasize the need for it to be implemented in tandem with the goal of achieving a common market. The benefits are summarized in the next paragraph. Firstly, similar to the creation of a single market in EU, ASEAN stands to yield larger benefits than the EU with its heterogeneous economies and development gaps. Secondly, most efficient practices are allowed to develop in various areas of microeconomic policies especially in CLMV. Thirdly, ASEAN would be more attractive to foreign direct investment. This is opposed to the higher transaction costs faced by multi-national corporations when doing business within the AFTA. Lastly, ASEAN could take on a united front at international forums such as the WTO, just as the EU had in projecting its interests in such organizations. Looking beyond the current goals set by ASEAN, the final stage of economic integration would be the economic union. This requires an agreement among ASEAN nations to transfer economic sovereignty to a supranational authority, unifying national monetary policies and accepting a common currency. The Maastricht Treaty2 signed in 1991 by the heads of governments in the EU specified that the respective countrys economic performance have to be similar. This convergence criterion, as mandated by the treaty, includes price stability, low long-term interest rates, stable exchange rates and sound public finances. Furthermore, the theory of optimal currency areas concludes that the countries involved should be exposed to common and symmetric shocks. As mentioned earlier, the diversity in economic development results in asymmetric shocks and possibly asymmetric responses due to incompatible financial markets. The trade-offs involved would be loss of domestic monetary policy flexibility and the inability to use inflation to reduce public debt in real terms. The recent Eurozone crisis could be attributed to the adoption of the euro. The sharp fall in lending rates led to a significant increase in consumer lending and much of it was channelled into the real estate bubble. Henceforth, the costs of integrating further into an ASEAN economic union far outweigh the benefits of exchange-rate stability and low interest rates. The history of EUs regional economic integration does support ASEAN integration. EU has experienced the general factors that hinder the progress of integration for ASEAN. The objective of an AEC has been pushed forward from 2020 to 2015. This clearly indicates that ASEAN is integrating faster and beyond the CEPT-AFTA. However, the outline for the AEC does not include a customs union. In this regard, ASEAN should seriously consider the formation of an ACU if it intends to integrate further. The problem of the development gap is not merely an obstacle in the process of integrating, but a prerequisite if ASEAN truly intends to follow in the steps of the EU.
1 A tariff is either a tax on imports or exports (an international trade tariff), or a list of
prices for such things as rail service, bus routes, and electrical usage (electrical tariff, etc.). 2 The Maastricht Treaty or the Treaty on European Union was signed on 7 February 1992 by the members of the European Community in Maastricht, Netherlands. Sources:
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2. Bui,
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The S&P 500 is a free-float capitalization-weighted index published since 1957 of the prices of 500 large- cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. It has been widely regarded as a gauge for the large cap US equities market The MSCI Asia ex Japan Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of 10 developed and emerging market country indices: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The STOXX Europe 600 Index is regarded as a benchmark for European equity markets. It represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 18 countries of the European region: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Correspondents : Vera Soh (Vice President, Publication) vera.soh.2011@economics.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Samuel Ong (Publications Director/ Editor) samuel.ong.2010@business.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Ng Yongxiang (Marketing Deputy / Writer) yx.ng.2011@accountancy.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Tan Kwan Hong (Writer) Undergraduate School of Economics Singapore Management University kwanhongtan.2009@economics.smu.edu.sg
Ng Jia Wei (Vice President, Operations) jiawei.ng.2012@economics.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Yingyu Zeng (Liaison Officer) yingyu.zeng.2010@economics.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Darren Goh Xian Yong (Editor) darren.goh.2010@business.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Mrigank Kanoi (Writer) Undergraduate Lee Kong Chian School of Business Singapore Management University mrigankk.2009@business.smu.edu.sg
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