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CHANGES IN TOTAL RIVER INFLOWS UNDER VARIOUS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (MAF)
6
0 Jan -2 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-4
-6
-8 Months
+ 2C + No CHGP
+2C -20% P
+2C +20%P
GISS +30%P
GFDL +20%P
Climate Change Impacts on Weather Wet Season rainfall could increase by 5% 50% by year 2070, with an associated doubling in the frequency of high intensity rainfall events. (CSIRO study)
Climate Change Projections for Pakistan Based on IPCC Scenario A2 Ensemble of 6 GCMs
2020s
Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan
2050s
2080s
Temperature Change T(C) 1.41 0.13 1.04 0.11 3.09 0.29 2.47 0.14 5.32 0.53 4.33 0.28
Precipitation is projected to increase slightly in summer and decrease in winter with no significant change in annual precipitation It is projected that climate change will increase the variability of monsoon rains and enhance the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts
Major Climate Change related Concerns Increased variability of monsoons Uncertainty about the fate of Upper Indus Basin glaciers and future water availability from them Increased risks of Flood and Droughts Severe water and heat stressed conditions in arid and semi arid regions, leading to reduced agriculture productivity and power generation
Major Climate Change related Concerns Increased upstream intrusion of saline water in Indus Delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and breeding ground for fish Threat to coastal areas, including the city of Karachi, due to sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures
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There is some uncertainty about the temporal behaviour of Karakoram glaciers which have not been studied in detail because of their difficult terrain and steep slopes
12
13
61 60 59
58.37 58.13
15
RN E ST E W
KO A R KA
MS A R
16
y = 0.0628x + 6.1059
Years
y = 0.0443x + 6.0162
Period (years)
y = -0.0202x + 4.9132
Years
y = -0.039x + 4.7412
F lo w V o lu m e ( m a f )
5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Period (years)
y = -0.0361x + 3.1346
F l o w V o l u m e (m a f)
1990
1993
1995
Years
23
1997
y = -0.0419x + 3.1628
Period (years)
River Indus at Partab Bridge - July (1962 - 2005) Man - Kendall Significance Level = 74%
y = 0.0244x + 11.715 18 17 16 15
F lo w s (m a f)
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
y = -0.0155x + 11.809
F lo w Vo lu me (maf)
14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Period (years)
Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days) of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 1995 2009
UIB Stations Khunjerab Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Z R Z R
Z R Z R
R R R R
F N R R
R R R R
R R R R
F F F N
F F F F
F F F F
F N R N
R N R R
Z R Z F
Hushey
Z R Z
Z R Z
R R Z
F N F
R R R
R R R
F F F
F F F
F F F
F N R
N F Z
Z R Z
Burzil
R = Rising Trend ;
F = Falling Trend ;
N = No Trend;
Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Burzil (4000 masl)
700
650
Degree Days
600
550
500
450 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Naltar (2800 masl)
(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl. = 91%) 1550 y = -6.2368x + 1469 1500
1450
Degree Days
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Khunjerab (4710 masl)
(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl = 95%) 500
Degree Days
400
350
300
250 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Other Concerns
WAPDA has planned its major Reservoirs and Hydropower Projects in Upper Indus Basin. For their safety and optimum operation following measures are required: Net work to monitor Floods from rains Network for monitoring and management of GLOFs Set up to monitor and manage land slides Sedimentation estimation and management Program
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