Distribution Transformer Failure Population Analysis

Risk Profile Pilot Initiative

The results of this effort will be: Practical and demonstrated methodology to assess distribution transformers failure rates

A customizable tool to analyze transformer data, and An application-oriented professional report with best practice guidelines that serve to assess the risks going forward for existing units and suggest mitigation practices for future installations.

A combination of acute demands for energy during weather extremes along with aging of the distribution transformer population is creating performance uncertainties for transformers like the one shown above.

A combination of acute demands for energy during weather extremes, along with an aging distribution transformer population, has led to more than usual distribution transformer failures across the industry. To promptly address this matter, the Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) is proposing a comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation initiative to industry stakeholders. The initiative will begin by launching an aggressive pilot project to collect vital data associated with distribution class transformer overloads, failures, and existing load management schemes. In addition, manufacturers data related to design and performance criteria will be researched. The collection and analysis of select data will lay the foundation for analyzing other systems based on the methodology, techniques, tools, and a best practice guide developed and tested on the pilot system. This is an accelerated effort that will leverage past and ongoing EPRI research and practical experience in addition to collecting manufacturers and environmental data. It will be completed over the next six months.

Value The project will directly benefit participants by providing means for peak load preparation for the short term and fundamental changes in operation and business practices, for example, run to failure with proactive information-based strategies that leverage combined data resources. More efficient practices from better information will mitigate the impact to customer service, improve public image, and reduce the uncertainty in financial outcomes of unexpected failures. Project Summary EPRI will move quickly to develop a methodology, review existing applicable commercial software used in failure analysis, collect related data, assess failures, and recommend an industry-wide failure database format for distribution transformers. The project tasks are further detailed below: Select a pilot utility from the pool of participants. Collect failure data including, but not limited to, transformer nameplate information, ages, install dates, failure causes, loading, geographical spread, load research data, and environmental trends. To be meaningful and useful in deriving or identifying trends and drawing solid conclusions, these data will be collected for the last five years.

Review the different methodologies being presently employed, such as applying load research to properly size distribution transformers. In addition, review the commercially available software that can be used to predict distribution transformer loading based on metering data and weather patterns. Analyze the collected data with either appropriate commercially available tools or those that may be developed by EPRI for this project. These tools should be able to represent the totality of relevant data from the view of capability, condition, degradation, loading, environmental assessment, and risk assessment. Any tools developed will be flexible enough to ultimately be used at other utilities. Develop defensible recommendations for the pilot system for the following peak season, accompanied by priorities. Document methodology and tools in an applicationoriented professional report, including the requisite information for making risk-informed asset management decisions. This technical report will serve as industry best practice guidelines for risk assessment of distribution transformers. Recommend an industry-wide performance database (IDB) format/scheme for distribution transformer units outside the fence, which will provide a way to share data confidentially across all participating utilities. This task will leverage past EPRI work, for example, the Industry Database for Cables. The project will review key data and initiate a transformer IDB format in a standardized fashion in a secure, confidential, and robust manner to preserve vendor independence through an open architecture.

Deliverables Results from this initiative will be delivered through an application-oriented professional report with defined methodology and tools. This report will serve as best practice guidelines for assessment of the risks going forward to existing units and will suggest mitigation practices for future installations. Price of Project The estimated cost to complete this project work scope is $240,000. The cost per participant is $40,000. Companies that fund any EPRI Power Delivery & Markets program can use Tailored Collaboration (TC) funds for up to half their contribution. Project Status and Schedule This aggressive initiative is targeted for kickoff in the fall of 2006 with completion slated for the early spring of 2007. Based on these initial efforts, further research may be proposed under EPRIs base portfolio, for example, electrical testing, monitoring, impact on remaining transformer life, and industry seminars and workshops. Who Should Participate Utilities interested in leveraging a collaborative-based approach to develop an improved load management scheme for their aging distribution transformer assets would benefit from participating in this project. Contact Information For more information, contact the EPRI Customer Assistance Center (CAC), 800.313.3774, (askepri@epri.com). Technical Contact For more information, contact David Rueger, EPRI Project Manager, 413.448.2452 (drueger@epri.com).

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September 2006

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Electric Power Research Institute 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304 PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303 USA 800.313.3774 650.855.2121 askepri@epri.com www.epri.com
2006 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Inc. All rights reserved. Electric Power Research Institute and EPRI are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute.

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