Commodities Evening Update

Monday | March 18, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | March 18, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open High

Italian Trade Balance was at a deficit of 1.62 bn Euros in January. US Dollar Index (DX) increased around 0.4 percent in todays trade. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 9 bn Euros in January. European equities are trading lower today on the back of tax imposed on bank deposit in Cyprus which led to expectations of reemergence of Euro Zone debt crisis. Asian markets ended on a negative note and US stock futures are trading in the red. Italian Trade Balance was at a deficit of 1.62 billion Euros in January as against a previous surplus of 2.11 billion Euros a month ago. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 9 billion Euros in January from earlier surplus of 10.3 billion in December. Spot gold prices gained by 0.6 percent today on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the safe haven. However, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) capped sharp gains in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1608.30/oz and hovered around $1602.30/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in the prices. Taking cues from rise in gold prices, Spot silver prices increased by 0.24 percent today. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of downside in the base metals coupled with strength in the DX. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $29.12/oz and was trading at $28.80/oz till 4:30pm IST today. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices on the MCX. The base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, rise in LME inventories apart from Lead exerted downside pressure on thew prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined by 2.25 percent on account of rise in LME Copper inventories by 3.4 percent which stood at 543,925 tonnes. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7545.75/tonne and hoeverd around $7584.25/tonne today till 4:30pm IST. Depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 1.09 percent taking cues from rise in output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of shut down in pipeline in Libya as a result of strike by the fuel truck drivers and is forecasted to affect a output of around 120,000 barrels a day.

as at 4.30 pm 18 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5816.75 19282.63 12365.44 1974.71 15619.16

5850.20 19345.42 12373.17 1982.92 15767.05

5814.35 19232.23 12220.63 1968.18 15591.22

5835.25 19293.20 12220.63 1968.18 15591.22

-0.64 -0.69 -2.71 -0.92 -2.01

Source: Reuters

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 18 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.68 1.2905 54.00

82.83 1.2975 54.34

82.545 1.288 54.00

82.57 1.2947 54.195

0.38 -0.97 0.32

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 18 March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1596.76 1605.90 29440 28.81 28.23 54250 93.26 109.22 5057 7710.25 423.50 1950.00 104.50 2214 119.35 16867 913 1956.50 104.50

1608.30 1606.10 29644 29.12 29.05 54480 93.26 109.83 5057 7710.25 423.50 1950.00 104.50 2214 119.35 16867 913 1956.50 104.50

1592.06 1601.60 29440 28.58 28.685 54057 92.14 107.93 5003 7545.75 413.80 1913.00 102.80 2172 117.40 16525 896 1933.00 103.55

1602.30 1601.60 29547 28.80 28.685 54217 92.43 108.16 5012 7584.25 414.50 1922.50 103.20 2178 117.60 16567 899 1938.75 103.75

0.66 0.57 0.59 0.24 -0.46 0.04 -1.09 -1.51 -0.99 -2.25 -2.21 -1.85 -1.43 -2.00 -1.67 -2.20 -1.61 -1.32 -1.05

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | March 18, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal, base metals and Crude oil prices to trade on the negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, worries over Cyprus bailout among the investors as the European Finance minister decided to levy special tax on the bank deposits in Cyprus will add further downside pressure on the prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 18 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Mar13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29333 1586 53786 28.44 5850 4963 91.6 207.2 7501 410.65 101.6 116.1 102.45 882.4 Support 1 29385 1590 53968 28.58 5885 4990 92.05 210 7545 413.5 102.3 117.3 103.25 892.8 CMP 29550 1602.4 54233 28.77 5896 5010 92.44 212.7 7586 414.8 103.2 117.6 103.75 898 Resistance1 29630 1609 54696 29.14 5968 5055 93.3 215.3 7670 419.7 104.6 118.8 104.6 909 Resistance 2 29710 1615 54930 29.32 6000 5085 93.85 217.2 7750 423.6 105.4 119.8 105.6 915

Important Events for Today

Indicator Rightmove HPI m/m Italian Trade Balance Trade Balance NAHB Housing Market Index Country UK Europe Europe US Time (IST) 5:31am 2:30pm 3:30pm 7:30pm Actual 1.7% -1.62B 9.0B Forecast 2.11B 3.4B 48 Previous 2.8% 2.16B 12.0B 46 Impact Low Low Low Low