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Egyptian Public Opinion Survey

April 14 April 27, 2011

Williams and Associates


Salem, Massachusetts www.WilliamsPolls.com

Survey Specifications
With funding from the United States Agency for International Development, the International Republican Institute conducted a national survey of adult Egyptians (18+ years) from April 14-27, 2011. Data was collected in the field by an international survey research firm operating in Egypt, under the supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associates of Salem, Massachusetts. Interviews were collected using the in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with random selection of households and respondents using the Kish method. Stratification is based on population distribution according to the latest census. A total of 1,200 interviews were completed yielding an overall margin of error of 2.78 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. The geographic and demographic distributions conform to the most recent generally accepted official statistics available (see slide three for demographics). The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

Survey Demographics
Male 50% Female 50%

Urban 43% Rural 57%


Age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

34% 24% 19% 15% 8%

Monthly Household Income Up to 1,000 LE 1,001-5,000 LE More Than 5,000 LE Refused to Answer Dont Know

30% 40% 4% 20% 7%

Education No Schooling 7% Primary 17% Secondary 32% Professional 15% University 26% Graduate 1% Dont Know/Refused to Answer (DK/REF) 1%

Location (see slide four for location details) Greater Cairo 18% Alexandria 6% Delta 42% Upper Egypt 34%

Location Details
Region
Great Cairo

Governorate
Cairo

City/Area
Dar El Salam El Zaiton Heliopoles Al Maadi El Talbia. Faisal Tanta Zagaziq Mansoura El Siouf El Asafra Miami 45.ST Roushdi Minia Bani Souif

Great Cairo Delta Delta Delta Alexandria

Giza Gharbia Sharqia Dakahlia Alexandria

Upper Egypt Upper Egypt

Minia Bani Souif

How would you say that things are going in Egypt these days, are things going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
100%
90% 80% 89%

70%
60% 50%

40%
30% 20%

10%
0%

9%
1%

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

DK/REF
5

How would you describe the current economic situation in Egypt?

5%

14%

32%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Very Good

Somewhat Good

Somewhat Bad

Very Bad

Has your households financial situation gotten better or worse over the last year?

5%

32%

24%

19%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your households financial situation to be better or worse?

32%

48%

9%

4% 4% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Much Better

Somewhat Better

Somewhat Worse

Much Worse

Same

DK/REF
7

Which answer best describes your current economic situation?

3% 2%

I have trouble feeding myself and my family and buying even the most essential things for survival. I have enough means for survival, but I do not have enough money for extra things. I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating at restaurants, but not very often. I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating out and also support other members of my family who cannot. DK/REF

17% 41%

37%

Now, I am going to read you a list of different types of individuals. Please tell me if that individuals opinion has a strong influence, some influence or has no influence on you and your opinion on current events and politics.
100% 90% 24% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18% 15% 3%
Religious Leader Union Leader

5%

7%

5%

4%

3%

3%

33% 54% 72% 68% 28% 26%

31%

47% 27% 47% 21% 7%


Political Party Leader Military Leader Head of Household Friends and Peers

36% 19%

Strong Influence

Some Influence

No Influence

DK/REF 9

Do you approve of the resignation of Hosni Mubarak as Egypts president?


2% 3%

10%

Strongly Approve Approve


84%

Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove

10

What is the single biggest problem facing Egypt as a whole?


Second Mention
17% 15%

Issue Unemployment Security/Crime

First Mention 37% 21%

Third Mention 9% 17%

Total 63% 53%

Corruption and Financial Scandals


Wages and Salaries Poverty

11%
8% 6%

14%
10% 11%

8%
5% 13%

33%
23% 30%

Democracy
Economy Free Elections Morality/Discipline in Society Transitional Government Human Rights Housing Other

3%
2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 4%

2%
3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 4% 10%

1%
6% 2% 5% 2% 4% 4% 24%

6%
11% 6% 12% 7% 8% 9% 38%

11

Now I am going to read a list of issues and for each one please tell me whether you feel that the situation has gotten better, gotten worse or stayed the same over the last year.
Much Better Somewhat Better Education Development of Independent Civil Society Development of Independent Media Living Standards Health Care Direct Foreign Investment Government Corruption Unemployment Security Political Reform 0% 1% 1% 1% Same 9% 5% 7% 1% 8% 1% 11% 25% 40% 18% Somewhat Worse 52% 37% Much Worse 22% 20% DK/REF 15% 13% 8% 2%

24%
31% 48%

30%
34%

21%

13% 5%
26% 1% 2% 6% 11% 1%
<1%

23% 37% 20% 26% 14%

15%

1% 6% 13%

11%
9% 16% 12%

32%
26% 33%

24%
51% 21%

31%

16%

13%

2%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

12

Of the following list of issues which are the top two in need of the greatest investment? (Multiple response)

DK/REF

7%

Support to Local Governorates

24%

Democracy Programs

19%

Health Care

51%

Infrastructure Projects

22%

Private Sector/Business Development

27%

Education Programs
0% 10% 20%

54% 30% 40% 50% 60%

13

How confident are you the current government is able to address the main issues facing Egypt today?
2% 8%

Very Confident
13% 39%

Somewhat Confident Not Very Confident Not Confident at All DK/REF

38%

14

It has been announced that parliamentary elections will be held in September. However, some people are saying that they feel this is too soon because it takes time to prepare for elections. What is your opinion? 3%

21%

Too Soon Not Soon Enough


51% 25%

The Right Amount DK/REF

15

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections?


80% 72% 70%

60%

50%

40%

30% 23% 20%

10% 1% 0% Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely Not Likely at All DK/REF 2%

3%

16

If parliamentary elections were held next week, for which party or group would you vote?
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

65%

20%
10% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

6%

6%

17

Of the party you selected, how strongly do you support that party?

4% 18%

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support
13%

DK
REF

65%

18

Do you approve or disapprove of each of the institutions listed below?


53% Approve 16%
12%

The Court System

Political Parties

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100%

Disapprove 19%

Difference

37%
21%

-20%

-41%

-47% -62%

-48%

-78%

-66%
Government Media

-57%
Independent Media

-69%
Business Community
19

If parliamentary elections were held today, would you know where to vote?

2%

34%
Yes No DK/REF

65%

20

Thinking about the parliamentary elections once more, which type of party would you support?

18%

14%

Currently Established/Existing Party New Party DK/REF 68%

21

Would you consider voting for a qualified candidate under the age of 35 for each of the following offices?

Member of Municipal Council

39%

35%

22%

4%

Member of Governorate Council

38%

34%

24%

4%

Member of Parliament

39%

37%

21%

3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Definitely Consider

Might Consider

Would Not Consider

DK/REF
22

Thinking now about the January 25 revolution, to what extent did you support the events that took place, resulting in Mubaraks resignation, would you say you support, somewhat support, somewhat not support or not support these events?

82%

13%

2% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Strongly Support

Somewhat Support

Somewhat Not Support

Not Support At All

DK/REF

23

How do you feel these events will shape Egypt as a whole, do you expect things to be much better, somewhat better, stay the same, somewhat worse or much worse?

53%

36%

5% 2% 3%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Much Better

Somewhat Better

Stay the Same

Somewhat Worse

Much Worse

DK/REF

24

Did you vote in the constitution referendum? If yes, how did you vote?
80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

72%

20%
10% 0% Voted Yes for the Admendments Voted No to the Amendments DK/REF 9% 1%

25

Did you participate in any of the protests during the revolution?


1%

28%

Yes No DK/REF
72%

26

Did you participate in any of the protests during the revolution? [N= 326 Breakdown by type of protest]

Street Protests

Workers Strikes

On-line Facebook/Twitter

Did Not Participate

DK/REF

1% 2%

25%

72%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

27

If you participated in a protest, what was the first day you attended a rally? n=296
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 22% 40%

15%
10% 5% 0%
25-Jan 26-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan

14% 10% 2% 3% 3% 4%

2%
After Jan DK/REF 31
28

When it comes to the events of January 25, on which source did you rely to get the most information about what was happening? (Allowed Three Responses)
Single Most Important Second Most Important Third Most Important

Issue Television Word of Mouth from Family/Friends

Total

84% 6%

10% 43%

3% 23%

97% 72%

Facebook
Internet News Sites SMS Radio Newspapers Email Twitter

6%
2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

6%
7% 13% 8% 7% 0% 0%

3%
4% 14% 7% 9% 1% 0%

15%
13% 28% 16% 16% 2% 1%

29

Thinking again about the events of January 25, which of the following factors most influenced you to support or participate in the protests?
1% 2%

3%

6%

6%

The Recent Events in Tunisia The Death of Khalid Saeed Low Living Standard/Lack of Jobs Lack of Democracy and Political Reform Encouraged by Friends and Family Other DK

19%

64%

30

Below is a list of countries and political entities organized in pairs. In each pair, please pick which of the two you would prefer Egypt to be closer with, if you had to pick one.
United States Russia DK/REF

64%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

25%
80% 90%

11%
100%

Iran

Saudi Arabia

DK/REF

15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

79%
60% 70% 80% 90%

7%
100%

Iran

United States

DK/REF

23%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

67%
60% 70% 80% 90%

10%
100%

Syria

Saudi Arabia

DK/REF

18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

75%
60% 70% 80% 90%

7%
100%

31

Below is a list of countries and political entities organized in pairs. In each pair, please pick which of the two you would prefer Egypt to be closer with, if you had to pick one.
Jordan Iran DK/REF

59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

28%
70% 80%

13%
90% 100%

Jordan

Syria

DK/REF

39%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

49%
60% 70% 80%

12%
90% 100%

United States

China

DK/REF

39%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

53%
70% 80% 90%

8%
100%

32

Prior to the recent constitutional referendum, have you ever voted of your own free will in a past election?
80% 71%

70%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 1% 0% Yes No DK/REF
33

28%

Yes No DK/REF

If yes, in how many elections have you voted? n=333


40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
One Two to Three Four to Five More Than Five DK
34

37%

24%

15%
12% 13%

Where are you most likely to get your local news and information? (Allowed Three Responses)

Issue Television Word of Mouth Internet (including Facebook & Twitter) Newspapers SMS Radio Place of Worship None

First Mention

Second Mention

Third Mention

Total

82% 6% 6% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0%

13% 34% 11% 18% 19% 9% 2% 4%

3% 27% 5% 14% 8% 6% 8% 29%

98% 67% 22% 36% 28% 16% 11% 33%


35

Which national newspaper did you read to get your news in the last three months? ( First Response)
I Don't Read the Newspaper
Al Masry Al Youm Al Ahram Al Akhbar Al Gomhuria Al Dostour Al Messa Al Youm El Sabaa Al Wafd 17% 51%

9%
9% 7% 3% 2% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%
36

60%

Which radio station did you listen to get your news in the last three months? (First Response)
I Don't Listen To The Radio
Nougoum FM Al Chark El Awsat Radio Masr Izaat Al Bernameg al Aam Sawt Al Arab Al Kahira El Koubra Holy Quran Nile FM 9% 71%

7%
3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1%

0%

20%

40%

60%
37

80%

Which television station did you watch to get your news in the last three months? (First Response)
Al Jazeera Al Hayat TV Al Arabiya ESC Al Mehwar Dream 2 Al Jeezra Mubashr Al Ekhbaria Al Hura BBC Arabic ON TV 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 6% 12% 22% 21% 28%

1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%


38

30%

Do you have access to the Internet? If yes, when you do use the Internet, from where do you access it most often?

n=343

24% 71% 29%

Yes No Home Work Mobile Phone Internet Caf REF


1% 1% 1% 2%

39

Are you on.?


Facebook
1% 23%

Twitter

1% 6%

76%

93%

Yes

No

REF
40