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News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132
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Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
CTT: FinMin takes cautious step
After proposing a commodity transaction tax (CTT) in its Budget for the coming year, the Union finance ministry seems to have had second thoughts. It asked the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) for a detailed analysis of CTT's impact on the non-agricultural commodity derivatives segment. The report is ready and would go to the ministry in a day or two. FMC Chairman Ramesh Abhishek is also to meet the consumer affairs minister. The CTT should come up for discussion, said a source in the know. Efforts to reach the FMC chairman proved futile. Finance Minister P Chidambaram had proposed to levy a 0.01% CTT on the nonagri futures segment, on the lines of the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on equity bourses. Commodity exchanges have already represented against the proposal, saying it would raise the cost of transactions by 500%, on an average. Small stakeholders, they've said, might find this cost too high to enter into risk management. (Source: Business Standard)
Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz
.Source: Reuters
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a positive note yesterday due to demand from stockists at lower levels. However, the spot remained in the negative due to the arrival pressure in the domestic markets and higher output expectations. The Spot settled 0.11% lower while the April Futures settled 0.56% higher on Monday. In the union budget 2013-14, although no direct move was considered for Pulses, still The Finance Minister expressed concern about the supplydemand mismatch in pulses. He said that the aggregate demand is a concern. Stating that food inflation is worrying, he said the government would take all steps to augment the supply side.
Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3465 3428 Prev day -0.11 0.56
as on March 18, 2013 % change WoW MoM -1.01 -6.16 1.66 -0.95 YoY -7.09 -6.29
Source: Reuters
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support
3380-3400
Trade Scenario
India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. In Canada chickpea output is estimated at 1.58 lakh tonnes compared with 86000 tn in 2011-12.
Outlook
Chana may continue to trade on a positive note in the intraday due to demand from stockists. However, increasing arrivals of new crop from MP coupled with higher imports may exert downside pressure on the domestic prices. Also, prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 as farmers will not liquidate their produce below these levels.
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures opened higher yesterday expecting a decision from the government on decontrol. However, sluggish demand from the bulk manufacturers coupled with higher supplies led to a decline towards the end. The traders are adopting wait and watch policy ahead of decontrol decision. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane. The spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.19% and 0.49% lower Monday.
India, the world biggest sugar consumer, could consider easing curbs on the tightly controlled industry this week. Decontrolling the sugar sector would, involve abolition of regulated release mechanism, removal of levy sugar obligation from industry, freer export-import policy, removal of sugar from compulsory packing in jute bags only and a transparent policy linking cane price with sugar price. The government has decided not to increase import duty on sugar though industry bodies and manufacturers had demanded a hike in the duty to 60% from the current 10% to curb shipment of the sweetener. India's sugar production in the 2013/14 season is set to fall below consumption for the first time in four years as a water shortage trims acreage in three key states.
Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3112
as on March 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.19 -0.84 MoM -2.84 YoY 8.20
Rs/qtl
3005
-0.63
-0.50
-3.41
11.46
Source: Reuters
International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 527.4 406.44
as on March 18, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -2.22 -3.18 -1.46 -2.82 MoM 7.54 1.95 YoY -21.05 -28.72
.Source: Reuters
Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support
3000-3015
Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade lower today due to higher supplies in the domestic markets. However, prices may recover as demand will now reemerge to meet the summer season requirement. Any decision by the government on decontrol may also guide the prices. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower cane availability this season.
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Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean April opened lower tracking weak international
markets. However, prices recovered from lower levels towards the end on account of lower supplies in the domestic markets. The spot settled 0.28% lower while the futures settled 0.39% higher Monday. Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. On a financial year basis, the export during April 2012 to February 2013 is 31,13,651 tonnes as compared to 34,52,791 tonnes in the same period of previous year showing a decrease of 9.82%. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.
Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3583 3621 684.8 686.4 Prev day -0.28 -0.98 0.05 -0.53
Source: Reuters
as on March 18, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1410 49.68 Prev day -1.16 -0.46 WoW -6.95 -1.11 MoM -0.60 -3.91 YoY 3.15 -10.32
International Markets
Soybean Futures on CBOT declined 1.16% on Monday on account of advancement of the South American crop. This has led to slowing demand for old US soybean. Concerns over fresh euro zone turmoil also led to prices to decline. There are reports that farmers in Argentina are holding back their crop anticipating higher prices. The USDA monthly crop report has kept the Brazil output unchanged at 83.5 mn tn while, it reduced Argentinas crop forecast from 53 mn tn to 51.5 mn tn. German oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 mn tn to 50 mn tn from its Jan estimates because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop by 0.5 mn tn. Argentina soybean acreage is estimated at 19.35 mn ha. U.S. farmers will harvest record soybean crops in 2013, ending three years of falling production and rebuilding nearly depleted stockpiles. U.S. soybean processors say they have been pleasantly surprised by the high oil content of the latest U.S. soybean harvest, a factor that has contributed to strong profit margins and should pad year-end soy oil inventories.
Source: Reuters
as on March 18, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.62 -0.93 -2.21 -1.58
Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures
MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg
Source: Reuters
RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3446 3421 Prev day -1.88 -0.93 WoW -4.51 -2.17
Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil and CPO declined 0.64% and 0.93%
respectively Monday due to good supplies. Lead speakers in the Palm Oil Conference have forecasted lower prices due to rising supplies. Higher global production estimates of palm oil by oil world have pressurized prices at higher levels. Global palm oil output is estimated at 55.3 mn tn in 2012-13, up by 3.4 mn tn. India's vegetable oil imports declined 17 percent from a month ago in February due to higher taxes. To curb imports, the tariff value of crude palm oil, the edible oil India imports most, has been raised from $ 815 a tonne to $ 848 a tonne, a rise of 4.04%.
Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note. Weak international markets may pressurize prices while low supplies may support prices. Mustard seed decline today on account of higher output expectations. Soy oil and CPO may continue to decline further on account of forecast of higher supplies. However prices may find support on expectations that output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Mar Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl
valid for Mar 19, 2013 Support 667-670 3410-3445 3395-3405 446-448 Resistance 674-677 3510-3540 3440-3460 453-456
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Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures declined for the second consecutive session yesterday on account of profit booking at higher levels. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies and delayed harvesting on back of to lack of skilled laborers have supported the prices. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.86% and 0.49% lower Monday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,200/tn. Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.
Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36857 37140 % Change Prev day -0.86 -0.42
as on March 18, 2013 WoW 0.00 1.96 MoM -9.71 -6.80 YoY -10.81 -11.54
Source: Reuters
Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Unit Rs/qtl
Outlook
Pepper is expected to recover from lower levels and trade on a positive note today as low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, improvement in arrivals may pressurize prices at higher levels.
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Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures declined yesterday due to arrivals pressure of the new crop. However, sharp downside was cushioned due to export demand. The arrivals of new crop are averaging around 25,000 bags/ day and are expected to improve in the coming days. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 201314, it has exempted jeera from VAT. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as April Futures settled 0.25% and 0.54% lower on Monday. According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,375 tn (c&f Europe) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.
Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13417 13268 Prev day -0.25 -0.69
as on March 18, 2013 % Change WoW 0.39 1.16 MoM -4.10 -1.78 YoY 0.70 4.02
Source: Reuters
Market Highlights
Prev day -2.39 -2.49
Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl
Outlook
Jeera Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Fresh export as well as domestic demand may support prices while increasing arrivals may cap pressurize prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric
Turmeric Futures declined sharply yesterday due to higher supplies of the new crop. Prices had shot up last week due to fresh export demand coupled with output concerns. Traders have received fresh orders from Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, Kolkata and some other places. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes. NCDEX imposed special margin of 10% on the long side from 14/03/2013. The Spot settled as well as the Futures settled 2.39% and 2.49% lower on Monday.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton declined 1.57% and 1.27% respectively Monday due to low demand from domestic millers. Traders have demanded the government agencies (Cotton Corp of India) to release the stocks procured by them. There is some buying interest seen from China which has raised expectations of export demand. The government has decided to continue with the current cotton exports policy. Traders expect exports to cross governments estimates of 8 mn bales. Finance Minister announced various incentives and policies in the Union Budget to support the ailing textile industry. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.
Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 969.5 18720
as on March 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.57 0.47 -1.27 1.13 MoM 4.92 1.13 YoY #N/A 10.97
Source: Reuters
International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 90.83 81.35
as on March 18, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.81 4.74 0.00 0.00 MoM 12.11 0.00 YoY 1.96 -29.20
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note today. Low demand from mills may pressurize prices. However, expectations of good exports may support prices. Also, the prices may take cues from firmness in the international markets. Expectations that China may release higher import quota which might boost imports also supported an upside in the cotton prices. Also, expected lower US cotton acreage and output in 2013-14 may also support prices at lower levels.
Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX March Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale
valid for Mar 19, 2013 Support 950-960 18530-18610 Resistance 980-990 18840-18990
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