19.03.

2013

Company Analysis - Overview

Ticker:

PetroChina Co Ltd

857 HK

Sector: Energy

Benchmark:
HANG SENG INDEX (HSI)

Hong Kong: 857, Currency: HKD

Currency:

Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Year:

Telephone
86-10-5998-6959
Revenue (M)
Website
www.petrochina.com.cn
No of Employees
Address
9 Dongzhimen North Street Beijing China
Share Price Performance in HKD
Price
10.36
1M Return
52 Week High
11.40
6M Return
52 Week Low
9.02
52 Wk Return
52 Wk Beta
1.00
YTD Return
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg
S&P
Moody's
Fitch

2'413'837
552'810
-0.8%
1.4%
-4.7%
-5.6%

Date
Date
Date

12/08
9.5x
11.8x
7.5x
1.0x
1.4x
4.7%

12/09
14.7x
18.1x
11.0x
1.5x
1.8x
3.1%

12/10
11.3x
11.8x
7.4x
1.1x
1.7x
4.0%

12/11
10.7x
11.2x
6.4x
0.7x
1.4x
4.2%

12/12E
12.7x
6.1x
0.8x
1.4x
3.6%

12/13E
10.9x
5.5x
0.7x
1.3x
4.0%

12/14E
10.0x
5.1x
0.7x
1.2x
4.4%

12/08
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
23.9
Operating Margin
15.1
Profit Margin
10.7
Return on Assets
10.1
Return on Equity
15.0
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/08
Current Ratio
0.8
Quick Ratio
0.2
EBIT/Interest
40.0
Tot Debt/Capital
0.1
Tot Debt/Equity
0.1
Eff Tax Rate %
21.7

12/09
23.3
14.2
10.1
7.8
12.6

12/10
20.7
13.0
9.6
9.0
15.7

12/11
16.1
9.2
6.6
7.4
13.7

12/12E
25.3
16.1
8.7
5.8
6.5
11.4

12/13E
25.6
16.9
9.2
6.3
6.8
12.1

12/14E
26.0
17.6
10.0
6.7
6.9
12.3

12/09
0.8
0.3
22.2
0.2
0.3
23.9

12/10
0.7
0.2
24.3
0.2
0.2
20.3

12/11
0.7
0.2
16.0
0.2
0.3
20.8

Outlook
Outlook
Outlook

Business Segments in HKD

Marketing Net
Refining and Chemicals Net
Exploration and Production Net
Natural Gas and Pipeline Net
Other Net

Sales (M)
1799884
227292
195575
188757
2330

Geographic Segments in HKD

China
Other

Sales (M)
1722139
691698

8% 0%

STABLE

Valuation Ratios
P/E
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
P/S
P/B
Div Yield
Profitability Ratios %

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural
gas. The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum
products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

8%

29%

9%

71%

75%

Marketing Net
Refining and Chemicals Net
Exploration and Production Net

China

Other

Natural Gas and Pipeline Net

Other Net

Current Capitalization in HKD

Common Shares Outstanding (M)
Market Capitalization (M)
Cash and ST Investments (M)
Total Debt (M)
Preferred Equity (M)
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)
Investments (M)
Enterprise Value (M)

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

183021.0
2015969.4
154174.4
549989.3
0.0
0.0
119488.6
2531272.9

Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

PetroChina Co Ltd

41%

nov.12

dc.12

janv.13

fvr.13

0%

0
mars.12

avr.12

mai.12

juin.12

juil.12

Buy

aot.12

Hold

sept.12

Sell

oct.12

Price

Target Price

Date

Buy

Hold

Sell

Date

28-Feb-13
31-Jan-13
31-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
31-Oct-12
28-Sep-12
31-Aug-12
31-Jul-12
29-Jun-12
31-May-12
30-Apr-12
30-Mar-12

41%
38%
38%
38%
41%
49%
50%
51%
58%
62%
58%
50%

41%
47%
47%
47%
44%
43%
44%
43%
39%
32%
33%
39%

18%
15%
15%
15%
15%
9%
6%
6%
3%
5%
8%
11%

19-Mar-13
18-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
14-Mar-13
13-Mar-13
12-Mar-13
11-Mar-13
8-Mar-13
7-Mar-13
6-Mar-13
5-Mar-13
4-Mar-13
1-Mar-13
28-Feb-13
27-Feb-13
26-Feb-13
25-Feb-13
22-Feb-13
21-Feb-13
20-Feb-13
19-Feb-13
18-Feb-13
15-Feb-13
14-Feb-13
13-Feb-13
12-Feb-13
11-Feb-13
8-Feb-13
7-Feb-13
6-Feb-13

Price Target Price

10.36
10.40
10.58
10.66
10.68
10.84
10.88
10.80
10.64
10.66
10.46
10.36
10.50
10.66
10.56
10.58
10.72
10.70
10.66
10.74
10.44
10.52
10.64
10.62
10.58
10.58
10.58
10.58
10.72
10.62

11.93
11.93
11.94
11.91
12.01
12.01
12.08
12.13
12.13
12.13
12.13
12.13
12.13
12.16
12.13
12.08
12.08
12.08
12.08
12.10
12.25
12.16
12.16
12.16
12.16
12.16
12.16
12.00
12.00
12.00

Broker

Analyst

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Goldman Sachs
Jefferies
Bank of China International
BNP Paribas Equity Research
EVA Dimensions
Standard Chartered
VTB Capital
Barclays
Macquarie
Deutsche Bank
Nomura
Mirae Asset Securities
UOB Kay Hian
BOCOM International Holdings
Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.
Renaissance Capital
Masterlink Securities
Ji Asia
ICBC International Securities
HSBC
Capital Securities Corp
DBS Vickers
Mizuho Securities
China International Capital Corp
Morgan Stanley
JPMorgan
Credit Suisse
Citic Securities Co., Ltd
Guotai Junan

NEIL BEVERIDGE
ARTHUR YAN
LABAN YU
LAWRENCE LAU
CHENG KHOO
CRAIG STERLING
DUKE SUTTIKULPANICH
COLIN SMITH
SCOTT DARLING
JAMES HUBBARD
DAVID HURD
SONIA SONG
GORDON KWAN
YAN SHI
WU FEI
ADRIAN LOH
BRADLEY WAY
LI XIN
SAMUEL THAWLEY
ANNA YU
THOMAS C HILBOLDT
TEAM COVERAGE
WEE KEAT LEE
ANDREW S F CHAN
BIN GUAN
WEE KIAT TAN
BRYNJAR EIRIK BUSTNES
DAVID HEWITT
HUANG LILI
GRACE LIU

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Recommendation
market perform
neutral/neutral
buy
buy
hold
buy
outperform
sell
overweight
neutral
hold
reduce
buy
hold
long-term buy
outperform
buy
hold
neutral
hold
underweight
hold
hold
underperform
hold
Underwt/In-Line
underweight
neutral
overweight
accumulate

Industrial Securities

38%

SWS Research Co Ltd

38%

GuoSen Securities Co Ltd

38%

Guotai Junan

4
41%

Everbright Securities Co., Ltd

49%

Citic Securities Co., Ltd

50%

JPMorgan

51%

Credit Suisse

58%

Morgan Stanley

62%

China International Capital

58%

DBS Vickers

50%

Mizuho Securities

40%

20%

HSBC

60%

Capital Securities Corp

10

Ji Asia

41%

ICBC International Securities

47%

Renaissance Capital

47%

Masterlink Securities

47%

43%

Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.

44%

UOB Kay Hian

43%

BOCOM International Holdings

44%

39%

39%

12

Nomura

18%

Mirae Asset Securities

15%

Deutsche Bank

15%

Barclays

15%

Macquarie

15%

VTB Capital

9%

EVA Dimensions

6%

Standard Chartered

32%

6%

BNP Paribas Equity Research

33%

5%

Brokers' Target Price

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jefferies

80%

8%

14

Bank of China International

11%

3%

Goldman Sachs

100%

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price

Price

Broker Recommendation

Target price in HKD

Target

Date

11.50
11.30
15.00
13.08
9.60

19-Mar-13
18-Mar-13
18-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
6-Mar-13
1-Mar-13
1-Mar-13
27-Feb-13
26-Feb-13
21-Feb-13
20-Feb-13
20-Feb-13
24-Jan-13
19-Dec-12
11-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
28-Nov-12
8-Nov-12
1-Nov-12
31-Oct-12
31-Oct-12
31-Oct-12
31-Oct-12
31-Oct-12
30-Oct-12
30-Oct-12
15-Oct-12
24-Aug-12
14-Aug-12

13.50
9.00
13.00
11.00
11.69
9.50
13.00
11.50
12.60
11.75
12.60
11.60
10.36
9.57
9.80
9.40
9.40
10.40
8.50
8.25
10.90
10.80
11.00

19.03.2013

PetroChina Co Ltd

Company Analysis - Ownership

Ownership Type

Ownership Statistics
Shares Outstanding (M)
Float
Short Interest (M)
Short Interest as % of Float
Days to Cover Shorts
Institutional Ownership
Retail Ownership
Insider Ownership

46%
53.96%
46.04%
0.00%

54%

Institutional Ownership

Retail Ownership

Insider Ownership

Pricing data is in HKD

Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name
BLACKROCK
ABERDEEN
JP MORGAN
VANGUARD GROUP INC
HARBOR CAPITAL ADVIS
CHINA NATIONAL PETRO
FMR LLC
HANG SENG INVESTMENT
STATE STREET GLOBAL
FRANKLIN RESOURCES
TEMPLETON INVESTMENT
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL
SHINHAN BNP PARIBAS
MANULIFE FUNDS DIREC
PICTET & CIE
DANSKE INVEST A/S
HARVEST FUND MANAGEM
STATE STREET
BARING ASSET MANAGEM
INVESCO ASSET MANAGE

United States
Britain
Singapore
Luxembourg
Hong Kong
China
Ireland
Others

49.46%
18.08%
11.46%
4.90%
3.39%
3.18%
2.57%
6.97%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor
Mutual Fund Manager
Government
Unclassified
Others

90.37%
6.32%
2.56%
0.59%
0.16%

3%

3%

7%

3%
5%

50%

11%

18%

United States

Britain

Singapore

Luxembourg

Hong Kong

China

Ireland

Others

TOP 20 ALL

Position
2'040'161'304
1'720'031'963
1'475'541'067
1'078'263'034
350'420'000
291'518'000
200'300'218
175'819'770
175'742'108
114'556'902
79'104'272
77'028'000
69'053'243
66'938'000
63'218'000
61'756'335
59'934'000
55'376'608
54'346'000
47'938'000

Position Change
23'987'865
0
72'000
-16'333'200
0
0
-37'870'666
0
-9'780'632
0
-64'000
10'000'000
2'168'000
0
-16'836'000
996'000
-14'076'000
-80'000
-10'416'000
5'938'000

Market Value
21'136'071'109
17'819'531'137
15'286'605'454
11'170'805'032
3'630'351'200
3'020'126'480
2'075'110'258
1'821'492'817
1'820'688'239
1'186'809'505
819'520'258
798'010'080
715'391'597
693'477'680
654'938'480
639'795'631
620'916'240
573'701'659
563'024'560
496'637'680

% of Ownership
9.67%
8.15%
6.99%
5.11%
1.66%
1.38%
0.95%
0.83%
0.83%
0.54%
0.37%
0.37%
0.33%
0.32%
0.30%
0.29%
0.28%
0.26%
0.26%
0.23%

Report Date

Position

Position Change

Market Value

% of Ownership

Report Date

15.03.2013
08.08.2012
13.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.03.2012
31.01.2013
30.06.2012
30.06.2012
31.12.2012
30.09.2012
15.03.2013
28.09.2012
30.06.2012
30.11.2012
31.01.2013
30.06.2012
18.03.2013
30.11.2012
31.05.2012

Source
ULT-AGG
ULT-AGG
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
20F
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG

Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name

Geographic Ownership

Geographic Ownership Distribution

0%

183021.0
98.6%

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Source

Institutional Ownership

Country
UNITED STATES

1%
3%

0%

6%
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
CHINA
UNITED STATES
HONG KONG
HONG KONG
UNITED STATES
BRITAIN
UNITED STATES
SOUTH KOREA
BRITAIN
SWITZERLAND
DENMARK
CHINA
UNITED STATES
IRELAND
IRELAND

90%

Investment Advisor

Mutual Fund Manager

Unclassified

Others

Government

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

PetroChina Co Ltd
Financial information is in HKD (M)
Periodicity:

Fiscal Year

Equivalent Estimates
12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

227'396

230'323

285'795

373'922

524'312

671'414

858'059

1'202'117

1'156'546

1'682'222

2'413'837

2'568'058

2'727'535

2'816'212

Gross Income
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses
(Research & Dev Costs)

650'746

698'467

732'215

159'715
1'787

159'600
1'702

188'828
2'268

228'919
2'801

340'058
3'033

476'948
4'151

650'352
5'453

1'034'511
8'697

992'121
11'219

1'463'614
13'592

2'192'564
15'930

Operating Income
- Interest Expense
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)

67'681
4'154
-236
-437

70'723
3'313
298
1'867

96'967
2'207
169
2'090

145'002
2'725
-8
-40

184'254
2'622
-84
-2'308

194'466
3'138
-72
-2'695

207'707
2'464
770
-5'804

181'472
1'455
1'212
-2'769

164'425
3'777
888
868

218'609
4'522
1'345
-4'571

223'207
9'172
1'128
-8'998

222'207

250'820

281'136

Pretax Income
- Income Tax Expense

64'200
21'735

65'246
20'948

92'501
26'410

142'325
41'027

184'024
51'441

194'096
48'507

210'276
51'073

181'576
39'463

158'891
37'981

217'313
44'211

221'906
46'083

214'519

240'949

265'536

Income Before XO Items

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax
- Minority Interests

42'465
0
-381

44'297
0
93

66'091
0
598

101'298
0
3'579

132'583
0
5'963

145'588
0
6'990

159'203
0
8'645

142'113
0
13'840

120'910
0
3'599

173'102
0
12'398

175'823
0
15'657

149'562
0.81
0.37
0.46

172'119
0.95
0.42
0.44

189'193
1.04
0.45
0.44

414'261

460'469

494'961

Income Statement
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

Net Income Adjusted*
EPS Adjusted
Dividends Per Share
Payout Ratio %
Total Shares Outstanding
Diluted Shares Outstanding
EBITDA

0.56

0.71

0.77

0.84

0.71

0.64

0.87

0.88

44'107
0.25
0.11
46.3

44'204
0.25
0.11
45.0

65'493
0.38
0.17
45.0

96'857
0.56
0.25
44.6

126'620
0.71
0.32
45.0

138'598
0.77
0.35
45.0

149'404
0.83
0.37
44.7

128'248
0.71
0.32
45.0

117'311
0.64
0.29
45.0

160'704
0.87
0.40
45.0

160'165
0.88
0.39
45.0

175'824
175'824

175'824
175'824

175'824
175'824

175'824
175'820

179'021
176'770

179'021
179'021

183'021
179'700

183'021
183'021

183'021
183'021

183'021
183'021

183'021
183'021

99'356

105'383

135'099

190'512

232'966

254'289

276'727

287'673

269'109

348'567

389'530

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Periodicity:

12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

7.34

7.86

8.43

Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
+ Cash & Near Cash Items
+ Short Term Investments
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable
+ Inventories
+ Other Current Assets
Total Long-Term Assets
+ Long Term Investments
Gross Fixed Assets
Accumulated Depreciation
+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Other Long Term Assets

81036.7129
10'483
13'904
9'188
26'674
20'788

70818.709 80831.7888 114815.752 168996.687 161681.613 251766.376 255417.771 334324.845 337810.179 471826.159
9'400
10'535
10'977
77'732
48'397
73'379
37'641
98'719
53'915
75'416
11'681
25'199
32'535
1'850
3'002
20'185
11'837
33
3'554
515
8'121
5'327
8'152
7'358
11'294
24'904
23'991
37'538
60'109
81'997
26'797
27'082
44'495
60'273
75'785
94'589
102'969
130'354
159'105
224'691
14'820
12'689
18'657
21'784
23'203
38'709
78'979
67'681
61'126
89'207

354'841
1'363
552'640
206'917
345'723
7'754

384'399
1'446
605'359
230'558
374'801
8'152

417'939
1'725
656'142
249'592
406'550
9'664

484'791
5'031
762'402
294'774
467'628
12'132

578'556
4'475
901'060
343'687
557'373
16'707

707'576
4'538
1'074'157
410'570
663'587
39'451

889'423
8'286
1'347'611
503'896
843'714
37'423

1'102'862
5'160
1'683'983
631'745
1'052'238
45'465

1'312'738
4'171
1'975'257
719'533
1'255'725
52'842

1'616'079
6'449
2'377'433
873'812
1'503'620
106'010

1'892'274
5'598
2'814'710
1'063'769
1'750'941
135'735

Total Current Liabilities

+ Accounts Payable
+ Short Term Borrowings
+ Other Short Term Liabilities

87'584
4'798
23'857
58'929

84'187
7'682
19'440
57'066

106'960
9'521
27'099
70'340

122'585
7'469
32'812
82'304

147'805
13'210
27'564
107'031

179'280
22'415
35'644
121'221

212'938
43'360
33'000
136'579

301'637
44'050
106'299
151'288

441'272
71'366
168'989
200'917

506'890
114'841
120'574
271'475

690'444
139'819
169'304
381'321

Total Long Term Liabilities

+ Long Term Borrowings
+ Other Long Term Borrowings

69'674
61'751
7'923

68'088
57'148
10'940

52'045
39'358
12'687

60'999
44'262
16'737

77'402
43'827
33'575

74'444
36'507
37'937

92'304
42'420
49'883

93'953
37'302
56'651

174'933
97'068
77'866

255'514
154'935
100'579

339'037
222'746
116'291

Total Liabilities
+ Long Preferred Equity
+ Minority Interest
+ Share Capital & APIC
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity

157'258
0
4'839
165'644
108'136

152'276
0
4'573
165'659
132'709

159'005
0
5'260
164'924
169'581

183'583
0
14'274
165'128
236'622

225'207
0
27'169
172'000
323'176

253'724
0
30'811
178'425
406'298

305'242
0
46'918
195'622
593'407

395'589
0
64'642
207'814
690'235

616'205
0
68'684
207'853
754'321

762'404
0
83'987
215'880
891'618

1'029'481
0
98'383
225'638
1'010'599

Total Shareholders Equity

278'619

302'942

339'766

416'024

522'345

615'534

835'947

962'691

1'030'858

1'191'485

1'334'619

Total Liabilities & Equity

435'877

455'218

498'771

599'607

747'552

869'258

1'141'189

1'358'280

1'647'063

1'953'889

2'364'100

1.56
1.55

1.70
1.69

1.90
1.89

2.28
2.27

2.77
2.75

3.27
3.25

4.31
4.26

4.91
4.87

5.26
5.17

6.05
5.95

6.75
6.61

Book Value Per Share

Tangible Book Value Per Share

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Periodicity:

12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

42'845
31'675
3'578
1'745

44'204
34'660
7'522
6'368

65'493
38'132
16'035
11'085

97'719
45'510
12'744
-21'886

126'620
48'711
12'854
6'037

138'598
59'823
7'604
-10'928

150'559
69'020
593
-8'462

128'273
106'201
10'034
-48'534

117'311
104'684
28'892
42'928

160'704
129'958
32'144
36'437

160'165
166'323
19'641
1'659

151'890

173'232

187'677

Cash From Operating Activities

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets
+ Capital Expenditures
+ Increase in Investments
+ Decrease in Investments
+ Other Investing Activities

79'844
1'046
-48'515
-166
93
-10'678

92'753
468
-66'620
-218
91
-1'335

130'745
190
-76'307
-679
82
-15'436

134'088
822
-88'499
-448
78
-8'950

194'222
853
-113'200
-742
927
24'573

195'097
337
-127'085
-60
4
-29'653

211'710
1'040
-177'765
-337
283
-14'662

195'974
489
-241'644
-26
58
-3'488

293'815
4'599
-292'249
-126
154
-11'548

359'243
829
-297'457
-84
87
-47'984

347'788
966
-322'804
-93
25
-31'882

-373'132

-382'845

-394'190

Cash From Investing Activities

+ Dividends Paid
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Capital Stocks
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks
+ Other Financing Activities

-58'220
-25'158
-10'792
20'029
-13'059
0
0
801

-67'614
-16'632
-5'486
9'315
-13'238
0
0
-183

-92'150
-27'921
-4'934
2'656
-7'542
0
0
327

-96'997
-32'304
4'000
17'365
-26'693
0
0
612

-87'590
-50'954
-2'383
14'730
-18'226
18'696
0
-2'777

-156'457
-66'840
1'787
13'833
-17'188
0
0
-1'753

-191'440
-66'191
3'754
21'186
-24'847
67'962
0
-3'763

-244'611
-60'112
77'301
5'012
-15'910

2'373

-299'169
-56'838
50'339
77'022
-9'017
0
0
4'867

-344'609
-61'069
-43'029
92'786
-50'343
0
0
-294

-353'787
-76'251
3'840
122'054
-22'015
0
0
-3'002

Cash From Financing Activities

-28'180

-26'224

-37'415

-37'020

-40'914

-70'162

-1'899

8'663

66'372

-61'948

24'626

Net Changes in Cash

-6'557

-1'084

1'180

71

65'718

-31'521

18'371

-39'974

61'017

-47'314

18'627

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)

31'329

26'133

54'438

45'589

81'022

68'013

33'945

-45'670

1'566

61'786

24'985

-18'987

24'926

34'994

Free Cash Flow To Firm

Free Cash Flow To Equity
Free Cash Flow per Share

34'076
28'552
0.18

28'382
17'192
0.15

56'015
44'807
0.31

47'529
41'082
0.26

82'911
75'996
0.46

70'367
66'782
0.38

35'810
35'078
0.19

-44'532
21'221
-0.25

4'440
124'508
0.01

65'388
62'029
0.34

32'252
129'830
0.14

Cash Flows
Net Income
+ Depreciation & Amortization
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Periodicity:

12/01

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

5.6x
4.6x
3.1x
1.1x
0.9x
8.2%

6.1x
4.7x
3.2x
1.2x
0.9x
7.3%

11.9x
8.5x
6.1x
2.7x
2.3x
3.8%

7.5x
5.4x
4.1x
2.0x
1.8x
6.0%

8.8x
6.2x
4.9x
2.1x
2.3x
5.1%

14.0x
10.2x
7.8x
2.9x
3.4x
3.2%

15.9x
26.3x
19.7x
2.8x
3.2x
2.8%

9.5x
11.8x
7.5x
1.0x
1.4x
4.7%

14.7x
18.1x
11.0x
1.5x
1.8x
3.1%

11.3x
11.8x
7.4x
1.1x
1.7x
4.0%

10.7x
11.2x
6.4x
0.7x
1.4x
4.2%

12.7x

10.9x

10.0x

6.1x
0.8x
1.4x
3.6%

5.5x
0.7x
1.3x
4.0%

5.1x
0.7x
1.2x
4.4%

Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Margin
Profit Margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity

43.7%
29.8%
18.8%
10.2%
16.1%

45.8%
30.7%
19.2%
9.9%
15.4%

47.3%
33.9%
22.9%
13.7%
20.7%

50.9%
38.8%
26.1%
17.7%
26.5%

44.4%
35.1%
24.1%
18.8%
28.3%

37.9%
29.0%
20.6%
17.2%
25.8%

32.3%
24.2%
17.5%
15.1%
22.2%

23.9%
15.1%
10.7%
10.1%
15.0%

23.3%
14.2%
10.1%
7.8%
12.6%

20.7%
13.0%
9.6%
9.0%
15.7%

16.1%
9.2%
6.6%
7.4%
13.7%

25.3%
16.1%
8.7%
5.8%
6.5%
11.4%

25.6%
16.9%
9.2%
6.3%
6.8%
12.1%

26.0%
17.6%
10.0%
6.7%
6.9%
12.3%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
Tot Debt/Capital
Tot Debt/Equity

0.93
0.38
14.19
0.24
0.31

0.84
0.35
17.01
0.20
0.25

0.76
0.38
28.11
0.16
0.20

0.94
0.42
39.49
0.16
0.19

1.14
0.59
50.71
0.12
0.14

0.90
0.35
44.00
0.10
0.12

1.18
0.56
48.95
0.08
0.09

0.85
0.24
39.98
0.13
0.15

0.76
0.31
22.19
0.21
0.26

0.67
0.23
24.32
0.19
0.23

0.68
0.23
16.01
0.23
0.29

0.54
19.37

0.52
26.61

0.60
42.49

0.68
55.35

0.78
67.60

0.84
72.56

0.86
48.30

0.95
48.28

0.77
37.62

0.94
34.89

1.12
34.12

33.9%

32.1%

28.6%

28.8%

28.0%

25.0%

24.3%

21.7%

23.9%

20.3%

20.8%

Ratio Analysis
Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings
EV to EBIT
EV to EBITDA
Price to Sales
Price to Book
Dividend Yield

Others
Asset Turnover
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Accounts Payable Turnover
Inventory Turnover
Effective Tax Rate

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

PETROCHINA CO-H
Latest Fiscal Year:

12/2011
11.86
27.04.2012
9.03
05.09.2012
49'304'191

52-Week High
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
52-Week Low Date
Daily Volume

Current Price (3/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change
52-Week Low % Change
Total Common Shares (M)

Market Capitalization
Total Debt
Preferred Stock
Minority Interest
Cash and Equivalents

Enterprise Value
Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

EPS

P/E

Revenue Growth
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin

LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
1 Year
5 Year
1 Year
5 Year
LTM
CY+1
CY+2

CNOOC LTD
12/2011
17.38
04.01.2013
13.18
05.06.2012
74'339'217

CHINA PETROLEUH

EXXON MOBIL
CORP

CHEVRON CORP

12/2011
9.57
30.01.2013
6.38
11.07.2012
68'526'212

12/2012
93.67
19.10.2012
77.13
05.06.2012
11'554'806

12/2012
120.26
14.03.2013
95.73
04.06.2012
4'828'671

BANGCHAK
PETROLE

CHINA OILFIELD-H

12/2012
40.25
15.02.2013
21.20
10.07.2012
2'212'800

12/2011
17.66
31.01.2013
10.02
23.05.2012
9'892'341

10.36

14.28

8.68

88.77

119.13

35.75

15.44

-12.6%
14.7%
183'021.0

-17.8%
8.3%
44'659.2

-9.3%
36.1%
86'702.6

-5.2%
15.1%
4'502.0

-0.9%
24.4%
1'946.7

-11.2%
68.6%
1'376.9

-12.6%
54.1%
4'495.3

2'015'969

637'549

813'126

397'730

231'434

49'225

87'425

318'002.0
79'801.0
61'590.0

37'995.0
99'197.0

240'555.0
35'016.0
25'197.0

11'581.0
5'797.0
9'582.0

12'192.0
1'308.0
21'205.0

19'215.7
180.4
8'018.6

28'110.1
0.6
6'528.3

60'602

89'841
Valuation

2'032'263

450'139

405'525

223'729

2'003'843.0
1'997'142.0
2'056'279.5
2'183'975.1
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
323'368.0
331'704.1
368'703.5
6.2x
6.2x
5.7x
0.74
0.64
0.65
0.76
12.9x
12.7x
10.9x
36.7%
23.9%
6.5%
4.4%
16.1%
16.9%

240'944.0
234'644.0
239'215.5
248'530.0
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.0x
119'044.0
113'987.0
123'432.3
128'801.8
4.2x
4.4x
4.1x
3.9x
1.53
1.40
1.45
1.41
8.2x
7.9x
8.1x
33.8%
34.6%
21.5%
18.8%
48.6%
51.6%
51.8%

2'463'767.0
2'574'292.0
2'572'721.0
2'638'217.0
0.4x
0.3x
0.4x
0.4x
170'962.0
156'927.0
167'116.2
193'127.2
5.1x
5.5x
5.7x
5.0x
0.83
0.65
0.70
0.84
10.7x
9.9x
8.2x
31.3%
24.1%
(4.0%)
9.3%
6.1%
6.5%
7.3%

958'070

420'714.0
426'252.0
435'718.8
444'541.0
0.9x
0.9x
1.0x
0.9x
65'769.0
67'270.0
81'325.3
82'738.2
6.0x
5.9x
5.1x
5.0x
7.56
7.89
7.94
8.21
11.3x
11.3x
11.2x
10.8x
(3.0%)
2.4%
(5.6%)
(1.2%)
15.8%
18.7%
18.6%

222'580.0
222'580.0
236'505.0
232'832.6
0.9x
0.9x
1.0x
1.0x
48'426.0
48'426.0
55'736.4
57'037.2
4.2x
4.2x
4.1x
4.1x
12.10
12.12
12.37
12.49
9.8x
9.8x
9.6x
9.5x
(5.8%)
(0.1%)
(5.4%)
7.1%
21.8%
23.6%
24.5%

165'245.9
165'245.9
193'919.4
201'519.5
0.3x
0.3x
0.3x
0.3x
5'622.4
5'622.4
9'107.3
10'627.9
9.8x
9.8x
7.3x
6.3x
3.10
3.61
4.11
11.5x
9.9x
8.7x
4.2%
11.0%
(37.5%)
4.8%
3.4%
4.7%
5.3%

31.7%
22.7%
27.942x

14.5%
12.6%
0.482x
-0.530x
76.408x

50.9%
32.2%
1.962x
1.873x
18.191x

7.0%
6.3%
0.172x
0.030x
78.954x

8.9%
8.1%
0.252x
-0.186x
200.107x

59.8%
37.3%
3.418x
1.992x
5.982x

AA16.12.2010
-

A+
16.12.2010
-

AAA
16.12.1985
WR
16.08.1993

AA
01.07.1987
Aa1
27.02.2009

18'426.1
20'297.6
21'222.5
24'051.3
4.5x
4.1x
4.2x
3.7x
8'159.6
8'609.8
9'196.3
10'340.4
10.2x
9.7x
9.8x
8.6x
0.92
0.97
1.03
1.19
12.7x
12.5x
12.1x
10.4x
4.9%
20.2%
(4.7%)
28.7%
42.4%
43.3%
43.0%

Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %
Total Debt / Capital %
Total Debt / EBITDA
Net Debt / EBITDA
EBITDA / Int. Expense

98.8%
49.7%
3.268x
2.395x
15.048x

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating
S&P LT Credit Rating Date
Moody's LT Credit Rating
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date

A20.12.2012
-

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |