Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2000
5,357
12,239
Depreciation
Amortization of intangibles
Commissions and fees growth
% of Commissions and fees
Investment income
Other income
1999:
$219,293
Actual
2001
6,116
13,868
2002
7,771
5,320
Estimated
2003
8,935
8,019
2004
9,327
7,911
Projected
2005
2006
9,115
8,248
7,095
7,085
2007
Projection Drivers
7,109 % Total Revenue
7,082 10K Note K page F21
16.9%
26.0%
38.3%
30.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.5%
0.8%
0.5%
0.9%
% of Total Revenue
Compensation and employee benefits
Other operating expenses
Depreciation
56.3%
19.3%
2.1%
55.7%
19.0%
1.9%
54.2%
17.7%
1.7%
53.7%
17.2%
1.5%
53.2%
16.7%
1.3%
52.7%
16.2%
1.1%
52.2%
15.7%
0.9%
44.3%
43.0%
40.8%
41.0%
41.0%
41.0%
41.0%
Capex
7,514
5,633
6,641
7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
11,500 Estimated
27,143
34,830
7,687
41,288
6,458
46,895
5,607
50,936
4,042
DCF Calculations:
Working Capital Calculation
30 Days Operating Expenses
Change in Working Capital
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10.0%
CONSTANT IN 2003 (INTEREST RATE TRENDS)
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9% increase 10 basis point
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3% increase 10 bp asap
Step 3:
TIP: Estimate working
capital per 1 month of
operating expenses (used
for DCF analysis later)
TRAINING
www.wallst-training.com
2000
Revenue
Commissions and fees
Investment income
Other income
Total Revenue
$ 256,366
2,626
1,283
$ 260,275
ENTER IN SUPPORT SECTION:
SUM(F41:F42)
Expenses
Compensation and employee benefits
$ 146,442
Other operating expenses
50,165
Depreciation & Amortization
17,596
Total Expenses
$ 214,203
UPDATE BASIC S/O TO
REFLECT EFFECT OF
Operating Income
$ 46,072
CONVERTED NOTES
Interest expense
(8,179)
Non-operating gains / (losses)
1,844
TREASURY METHOD:
$ 39,737
(17,610)
=I26+MAX(0,1704.901*(1(12.19/31.24)))
$ 22,127
NOTE I, PG F-17
Basic Shares Outstanding
26,224
Diluted Shares Outstanding
29,784
ADD NUMERATOR
FOR EFFECT OF
$ 0.84
Basic Earnings Per Share
Diluted Earnings Per Share CONVERTIBLE DEBT; $ 0.78
NOTE J, PG F19
EBITDA
$ 63,668
EBITDA Margin
24.5%
Pre-Tax Income
Income taxes
Net Income
Actual
2001
2002
Estimated
2003
2004
Projected
2005
2006
2007
Projection Drivers
$ 323,078
2,585
1,896
$ 327,559
$ 446,673
2,439
3,402
$ 452,514
$ 580,675
3,171
5,003
$ 588,849
$ 696,810
4,502
6,701
$ 708,012
$ 801,331
5,978
8,507
$ 815,817
$ 881,464
7,458
10,239
$ 899,161
$ 969,611 % Growth
9,173 % Comm & Fees
12,233 % Comm & Fees
$ 991,017
$ 182,397
62,095
19,984
$ 264,476
$ 245,405
80,308
13,091
$ 338,804
$ 316,397
101,559
16,954
$ 434,910
$ 376,885
118,571
17,238
$ 512,694
$ 430,192
132,546
16,210
$ 578,949
$ 469,645
141,592
15,333
$ 626,570
$ 63,083
(9,061)
2,708
$ 113,710
(10,665)
212
$ 153,939
(10,665)
-
$ 195,318
(10,665)
-
$ 236,868
(10,665)
-
$ 272,592
(10,665)
-
$ 313,058
(10,665) constant cap structure
- normalized = zero
$ 56,730
(24,381)
$ 32,349
$ 103,257
(42,082)
$ 61,175
$ 143,274
(58,742)
$ 84,532
$ 184,653
(75,708)
$ 108,945
$ 226,203
(92,743)
$ 133,460
$ 261,927
(107,390)
$ 154,537
$ 302,393
(123,981) from Support calc
$ 178,412
27,411
31,160
29,240
32,876
33,849
34,889
33,849
34,889
33,849
34,889
33,849
34,889
$ 1.18
$ 1.07
$ 2.09
$ 1.89
$ 2.50
$ 2.42
$ 3.22
$ 3.12
$ 3.94
$ 3.83
$ 4.57
$ 4.43
$ 5.27
$ 5.11
$ 83,067
25.4%
$ 126,801
28.0%
$ 170,893
29.0%
$ 212,556
$ 253,078
$ 287,925
$ 327,248 EBIT + D&A
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
CONVERTIBLES WERE CONVERTED IN NOV. 2002,
EXCLUDE FROM DILUTED EPS CALC STARTING IN 2003
Step 4:
Using projected growth rates and margins, calculate projections
WALL ST
TRAINING
www.wallst-training.com
10