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PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE RESEARCH SERIES VOL. 4 FEBRUARY 2013 NO. 6

RESOLVED: ON BALANCE, THE RISE OF CHINA IS BENEFICIAL TO THE INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES. Over the past two decades, the Chinese economy has grown by about 10% per year no nation in the history of the world has ever grown at such a rate. In August of 2010, China passed Japan to become the worlds second largest economy behind the Untied States. If the current rate of growth continues, China will move past the United States into first place within a decade. The United States has contributed in numerous ways to the rise of China. In 1972, President Richard Nixon ended 25 years of isolation by visiting China. Up until that time, the United States had diplomatically ignored the communist takeover of China. In 1949, the communist forces of Mao Tse-Tung pushed the nationalist Chinese government of Chiang Kai-shek onto the island of Taiwan. Yet the United States continued to claim that the legitimate government of mainland China was Chiang Kai-sheks Republic of China. In fact, Chinas permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations was occupied by the nationalist Chinese. In 1971, the United Nations voted to seat the Peoples Republic of China as the legitimate government of China; Taiwan was expelled from the UN. In 1979, the United States established formal diplomatic relations with the Peoples Republic of China. From that point, U.S.-China ties have expanded dramatically. In 2001, the United States sponsored Chinese membership in the World Trade Organization. Now, more than 450 of the U.S. Fortune 500 companies have operations in China, supporting over 50,000 investment projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars (The Frontier Post, Apr. 17, 2011, Nexis). David Mason, professor of political science at Butler University, describes Chinas remarkable transformation in his 2009 book, The End of the American Century: The rapid emergence of China as a global economic power is both remarkable and surprising. For those of us who grew up at dinner tables where we had to eat the last disgusting piece of asparagus because there were "starving people in China," the new Chinese wealth and affluence is quite astounding. The essence of the change lies in two major accomplishments: the ending of widespread hunger and famine -- a frequent affliction in China's long history -- by the communist regime and the bringing of at least 250 million people out of poverty and into the middle class since the adoption of the economic reforms. China scholar David Lamp-ton believes that the Chinese middle class is "growing more rapidly than any middle class ever has, anywhere." But perhaps China's economic boom should not be so surprising. For most of its long history, China had the world's largest economy, and it remained so up until the middle of the nineteenth century. (p. 190) The key question raised by the February Public Forum topic is whether the rise of China is beneficial or harmful from the standpoint of U.S. interests. This same question has been the subject of extensive recent discussions among economists and political scientists. C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Affairs, argues that China is using its newly found economic power to undermine carefully constructed international agreements. Bergsten is the author of the 2008 book, Chinas Rise: Challenges and Opportunities: China's behavior poses a fundamental challenge to the operation of the global monetary regime and to the effectiveness of its institutional guardian, the International Monetary Fund. China has in fact questioned the basic concept of international cooperation in dealing with these problems, claiming that the exchange rate is "an issue of national sovereignty" when it is of course a quintessential international question in which foreign counterparties have an equivalent interest. Far from accepting IMF advice, it has strenuously objected even to the principle of Fund involvement in the issue. Underlying this debate is the implicit threat that China might promote creation of an Asian Monetary Fund--based on the Chiang Mai Initiative, which provides the fulcrum for Asian monetary cooperation, in addition to the regional trade plans described earlier-and further erode the global role of the IMF. (pp. 17-19) Martin Jacques, a professor at the London School of Economics, is the author of the 2009 book, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. Jacques argues that China is determined to undermine U.S. economic influence in the world by replacing the dollar as the standard of international exchange: As a harbinger of the decline, and ultimate demise, of the present U S-dominated system, there is the prospect of the emergence over the next decade of the renminbi as a reserve currency, which would mean it could be used for trade and be held by countries as part of their reserves. Having acquired full convertibility against other currencies, it could rapidly assume a very important role outside China, acting as the de facto reserve currency in East Asia,

2 marginalizing the yen, and challenging the position of the euro and ultimately the dollar as global reserve currencies. It is clear from the American financial meltdown in 2008 that the days when the US economy could sustain the global reserve currency are now numbered. (p. 360) The rise of Chinas military is also a concern. Eamonn Fingleton, editor of the Financial Times, makes the following observation in his 2008 book, In the Jaws of the Dragon: Americas Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony: It is not an accident that the recent rate of growth in China's military spending -- at an average of more than 10 percent a year since the mid-1990s -- has been one of the world's fastest. While a detailed discussion of likely future U. S. - China military rivalry is beyond the scope of this book, a few points can be made. First, analysts at the U.S. Naval War College calculate that China will draw broadly level with the United States as a military power in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020 (p. 302). Yet many experts regard the rise of China as a blessing, rather than a curse. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, America has been the worlds sole superpower. This has fed a belief in the importance of American hegemony the notion that the United States must be responsible for the maintenance of peace everywhere in the world. Critics of American hegemony argue that this effort to dominate events throughout the globe has over-stretched the capability of the U.S. military and depleted the treasury. Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, discussed this problem in his 2009 book, The Power Problem: How American Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free: In polls, Americans consistently reject hegemony in favor of burden sharing. In a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in July 2006, 75 percent of respondents believed that the United States "should do its share to solve world problems together with other countries" and only 10 percent wanted the United States to "remain the preeminent world leader in solving international problems." By a similar margin, respondents agreed with the proposition that "The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be." Bruce Stokes and Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center point out in their book America against the World that since the end of the Cold War, "no more than 13 percent of Americans have said the United States should be the single most important leader in the world." (pp. 133-134) According to this view, the United States should welcome the assistance of China in helping to manage security problems around the world. Evelyn Goh, professor of international relations at Oxford University, believes that the rise of China has turned that nation into a status quo power: In terms of policy, Chinese leaders have evinced their desire to make room for and to avoid open contestation of (if not entirely conform to) United States dominance in recent years. There has been, for instance, a marked moderation in rhetoric against "American hegemony" and United States alliances and bases in East Asia." Chinese actions also do not suggest that it is seeking a strategy of counter-dominance against the US. On the Korean peninsula, Beijing has refrained from exploiting its close relationship with Pyongyang to intensify the antagonism against the United States and South Korea, but has rather shifted toward being a mediating partner of the United States in the Six Party Talks. (The Rise of China and International Security, 2009, p. 62) A similar view is expressed by Nina Hachigian, vice president of the Center for American Progress, in her 2008 book, The Next American Century: In Asia as well, China is now seen as a status quo power. That is remarkable given an earlier era in the 1950s and 1960s when China sought to destabilize regional governments by supporting armed insurgencies, had border conflicts with virtually every neighbor, and spread Maoism beyond its borders. China scholar David Shambaugh observes that China is now the exporter of goodwill and consumer durables instead of weapons and revolution (pp. 156-157). The case can also be made that the rise of Chinas economy has made the U.S. economy stronger. The near economic collapse at the end of 2008 provides a recent example of the importance of having China as a strong financial partner. The United States is a huge export market for the Chinese, giving them an important stake in sustaining the health of the American economy. Zachary Karabell, a Harvard University Ph.D., discussed the importance of this interdependence in his 2009 book, Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the Worlds Prosperity Depends on It: The events of the past two years have only deepened the interdependence between China and the United States. The preponderance of the largest U.S.-listed companies are now immersed in the domestic Chinese market. While the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in no small measure to satisfy Chinese interests, China continued buying U.S. Treasuries during the heart of the crisis not because the yields were good (they weren't) or because there was any reason to believe that U.S. economic activity would accelerate anytime soon (there wasn't) but simply because China could not afford for the U.S. to fail. (p. 291)

ANALYSIS OF THE TOPIC The February resolution asks whether the rise of China is beneficial to the interests of the United States. Notice that this resolution focuses on the interests of the United States. This gives a direction to the topic that is different from much of the political commentary concerning U.S. hegemony. Many of the critics of U.S. hegemony discuss the unfairness of U.S. exceptionalism from the standpoint of other nations. They express a belief that the world needs a counter-weight to U.S. influence. Yet all such views are somewhat irrelevant on this resolution. It may well be true that China has every right to advance itself economically and militarily. It may be true that other nations welcome the rise of China as a balancing force against U.S. influence. Yet the resolution asks a different question: Does the rise of China benefit the interests of the United States? The best place to begin in analyzing this resolution is to ask, what are the interests of the United States? A comprehensive answer to this question is available in the 2000 report of the Commission on Americas National Interests (http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/2058/americas_national_interests.html). This commission, sponsored by the RAND Corporation and Harvard Universitys Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, included thirty prominent foreign policy experts such as Condoleezza Rice and Sam Nunn. These experts considered dozens of possible national interests and concluded that they must be placed into a value hierarchy: The Commission has identified a hierarchy of US national interests: vital interests, extremely important interests, important interests, and less important or secondary interests. This Report states our own best judgment about which specific American national interests are vital, which are extremely important, and which are just important (p. 2). Consider the example of human rights conditions in China. The commission agreed that the U.S. has an interest in promoting improved human rights conditions in China. Yet this interest should not be viewed as vital when compared to other U.S. interests: In considering whether an interest is vital, the question is whether the preservation of this interest, value, or condition is strictly necessary for the United States to safeguard and enhance Americans survival and well-being in a free and secure nation. Most proposed vital interests, from Bosnia and Kosovo to Haiti, do not meet this strict test, and consequently appear in the other columns of our chart. For example, many today assert that human rights in China are a vital US national interest. But massive violations of human rights as a matter of government policy occurred in every decade of the twentieth century in many countries around the world. While such violations are harmful to Americas values and in conflict with American efforts to promote norms of human rights internationally, these violationseven official, massive, systematic onesdo not threaten the survival or the freedom of America. (p. 20) The commission agreed on only a few U.S. interests as vital: The Commission identifies only five vital US national interests today. These are (1) to prevent, deter, and reduce the threat of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons attacks on the United States or its military forces abroad; (2) to ensure US allies survival and their active cooperation with the US in shaping an international system in which we can thrive; (3) to prevent the emergence of hostile major powers or failed states on US borders; (4) to ensure the viability and stability of major global systems (trade, financial markets, supplies of energy, and the environment); and (5) to establish productive relations, consistent with American national interests, with nations that could become strategic adversaries, China and Russia (p. 3). Of course, some world events have changed U.S. interest priorities since the commission issued its report in 2000. Most prominent among these events were the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Harvard law professor, Alan Dershowitz, concluded that the terrorist attacks completely changed U.S. priorities: The greatest danger facing the world today comes from religiously inspired terrorist groupsoften state sponsoredthat are seeking to develop weapons of mass destruction for use against civilian targets (Why Terrorism Works, 2002, p. 2). Your choice of a PRO or CON case will depend upon your definition of the interests of the United States. Is the key U.S. interest the maintenance of world order, preventing nuclear proliferation, economic prosperity, reducing world poverty, protection of world trade, or preventing cyberwarfare? As the cases in this volume demonstrate, all of these interests may be important. Your success will depend on showing that the interest that you have chosen is more important than the one selected by your opponent. PRO STRATEGIES The first PRO strategy focuses on the U.S. interest in maintaining world order. This case argues that the United States can no longer afford to be the worlds sole superpower. In reality, we are borrowing huge amounts of money from China so that we can maintain a farflung string of military bases. Chinas growing economic strength has given it a major stake in preserving world peace. Accordingly, the United States should welcome Chinas assistance in the maintenance of world peace and stability, rather than pursuing a strategy of hegemony that it can no longer afford. The second PRO strategy argues that the U.S. has a national interest in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The prime candidates for proliferation and certainly the most dangerous ones are North Korea and Iran. In both cases, the U.S. lacks the influence necessary to dissuade them from pursuing their nuclear programs. In both cases, China is the key to success in preventing dangerous nuclear proliferation. Fortunately, the rise of China has given the Chinese new reasons to support the nonproliferation regime. The U.S. should welcome this development as beneficial to

4 U.S. interests. The third PRO strategy selects economic prosperity as the key U.S. interest in dealing with China. China is vital to U.S. economic stability for several reasons: It is a major trading partner, it finances a large portion of the U.S. deficit, and its supportive action during the economic crisis of 2008 prevented a wider downturn. In addition, the U.S. has long professed an interest in the reduction of world poverty. The rise of China has brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty not only in China, but in Africa and other parts of the world. CON STRATEGIES The first CON strategy argues that the rise of China undermines the U.S. leadership position in the world. Chinas increased economic strength has enabled a dramatic buildup in the Chinese military, both in conventional and nuclear forces. This military buildup directly challenges the national security of the United States. In addition, China consistently undermines efforts to limit nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea. In both cases, world sanctions against potential proliferators are undermined by China. The second CON strategy focuses on the U.S. interest in maintaining the freedom of world trade. The U.S. has officially declared that it has a vital interest in maintaining the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. More than one-fourth of all world trade moves through the waters of the South China Sea. Given its new economic clout, China has chosen to claim as its own the South China Sea. This claim flies in the face of all relevant provisions of international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Because of treaty obligations to U.S. allies, including Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and the Philippines, this new Chinese assertively might well lead to war. A third CON strategy notes that the rise of China has undermined U.S. interest because of the cyberwarfare threat. China actively engages in cyberwarfare designed to steal U.S. industrial and military information. In addition, China has demonstrated an intent to establish its own military superiority in the event of war by disabling U.S. military satellites. China conducted a test of its anti-satellite weapons on January 11, 2007 and again on January 11, 2010. A fourth CON strategy argues that Chinas rise harms U.S. economic interests in a variety of ways: jobs are lost as U.S. manufacturers shift their operations to China, a massive trade deficit results from Chinese manipulation of its currency, and China seeks to undermine the strength of the dollar by replacing it with the Yuan as the world reserve currency. A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE PROPER USE OF BAYLOR BRIEFS IN PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE The PRO and CON cases in public forum debate must be presented in only a few minutes. Since the emphasis in public forum debate is on persuasive delivery for the lay person, you would never want to try to speak more rapidly in order to pack more arguments or quotations into the few minutes available in your speeches. Most successful public forum teams wont use more than six or seven short quotations in the whole debate. Most of the briefs offered in our Public Forum Debate Research Series are much longer and present much more evidence than could ever be presented in a single public forum debate. You should consider each brief as a resource and cafeteria of possibilities. Rarely in public forum debate would you ever read more than one or two short pieces of evidence under each heading. Why does Baylor Briefs, then, sometimes provide several long pieces of evidence? We want to give you choices and also to make backup evidence available to you. You should make the arguments your own by choosing only the arguments and evidence that makes the most sense to you.

5 PEOPLE AND TERMS RELEVANT TO THE FEBRUARY PUBLIC FORUM TOPIC PLA: The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) is the name of the Chinese military force. The PLA is the worlds largest army, numbering well over two million strong. The Chinese military developed nuclear capability in 1964 and is now thought to have a stockpile of about 100 nuclear warheads with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States. The Chinese navy has the worlds largest submarine fleet, though they do not yet compare in sophistication to U.S. nuclear submarines. China has recently acquired an its first aircraft carrier and is in the process of equipping it for service and training PLA personnel to operate jet aircraft from the carrier. While Chinese military spending continues to increase at a steady 10%-per-year increase, it remains roughly one-sixth the level of U.S. military spending. Renminbi (RNB): (Pronounced: Ren-Min-Bi) is the name of the Chinese currency; used interchangeably with Yuan. Technically, the Renminbi is denominated in Yuan. The February Public Forum topic will involve a discussion of the RNB because many U.S. politicians believe that China obtains an unfair advantage in international trade by manipulating the value of its currency, rather than allowing its value to be determined openly in world currency markets. Senkakus Islands: These islands, located in the East China Sea, are a source of a major current conflict between China and Japan. The Japanese government recently bought the islands from a private owner, an act that China viewed as an affront to its own sovereignty claim over the islands. Senkakus is actually the name given to the islands by Japan; China calls them the Diaoyu islands. Taiwan, which also claims the island group, calls them the Tiaoyutai Islands. South China Sea: Considerable controversy rages over the Chinese claim to ownership of most of the South China Sea. This claim puts it in direct conflict with all of its Southeast Asian neighbors, each of which claim parts of the South China Sea. This controversy is especially significant since about 25% of all world shipping trade travels through this region.

Spratly Islands: These islands in the South China Sea are claimed by six different countries: China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei. Malaysia and the Philippines. A 2011 clash between the Philippines and Chinese navies near the islands threatened to result in armed conflict. World Reserve Currency: At present, the U.S. dollar is the dominant world reserve currency. This means that most international trade, even if it does not involve the United States, is conducted in dollar exchanges. The dominance of the dollar confers a significant advantage to the United States in managing world trade. World Trade Organization (WTO): This is the international organization regulating world trade; China became a member of the WTO in 2001, having been sponsored for membership by the United States. Xi Jinping: (Pronounced: Shee Jin-ping) is currently the head of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese Vice President. It is anticipated that Xi Jinping will be selected to replace the current president, Hu Jintao, when the Communist Party leaders meet in early 2013. Yuan: (Pronounced: Wren, not You-An) is the name of the Chinese currency; used interchangeably with Renminbi.

KEY WEB SITES RELEVANT TO THE FEBRUARY PUBLIC FORUM TOPIC

Commission on Americas National Interests. July 2000. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://belfercenter.ksg. harvard.edu/publication/2058/americas_national_interests.html. This commission report calls for the establishment of a hierarchy of interests: The Commission has identified a hierarchy of US national interests: vital interests, extremely important interests, important interests, and less important or secondary interests. This Report states our own best judgment about which specific American national interests are vital, which are extremely important, and which are just important. At the top of this hierarchy are vital interests: The Commission identifies only five vital US national interests today. These are (1) to prevent, deter, and reduce the threat of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons attacks on the United States or its military forces abroad; (2) to ensure US allies survival and their active cooperation with the US in shaping an international system in which we can thrive; (3) to prevent the emergence of hostile major powers or failed states on US borders; (4) to ensure the viability and stability of major global systems (trade, financial markets, supplies of energy, and the environment); and (5) to establish productive relations, consistent with American national interests, with nations that could become strategic adversaries, China and Russia. Foreign Affairs. January/February 2008. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63042/gjohn-ikenberry/the-rise-of-china-and-the-future-of-the-west. This article, entitled The Rise of China and the Future of the West, is written by G. John Ikenberry, professor of international affairs at Princeton University. Professor Ikenberry highlights the military and economic threat represented by the rise of China: China is well on its way to becoming a formidable global power. The size of its economy has quadrupled since the launch of market reforms in the late 1970s and, by some estimates, will double again over the next decade. It has become one of the world's major manufacturing centers and consumes roughly a third of the global supply of iron, steel, and coal. It has accumulated massive foreign reserves, worth more than $1 trillion at the end of 2006. China's military spending has increased at an inflation-adjusted rate of over 18 percent a year, and its diplomacy has extended its reach not just in Asia but also in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Indeed, whereas the Soviet Union rivaled the United States as a military competitor only, China is emerging as both a military and an economic rival -- heralding a profound shift in the distribution of global power. Foreign Affairs. September/October 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show. This article, entitled How China Sees America was written by Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell. Nathan is a professor of political science at Columbia University and Scobell is an analyst at the RAND Corporation. They observe that every recent U.S. president has regarded the rise of China as serving Americas national interests: Beginning with President Richard Nixon, who visited China in 1972, a succession of American leaders have assured China of their goodwill. Every U.S. presidential administration says that China's prosperity and stability are in the interest of the United States. And in practice, the United States has done more than any other power to contribute to China's modernization. It has drawn China into the global economy; given the Chinese access to markets, capital, and technology; trained Chinese experts in science, technology, and international law; prevented the full remilitarization of Japan; maintained the peace on the Korean Peninsula; and helped avoid a war over Taiwan. Heritage Foundation. March 6, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://blog.heritage.org/2012/03/06/morning-bellchinas-military-rising/. This article, by Heritage Foundation scholar, Mike Brownfield, is entitled Chinas Military Rising. Brownfield argues that Chinas military buildup threatens U.S. national interests: China announced this week that its new defense budget would total approximately $106 billion an 11.2 percent increase over its previous budget. Thats on top of last years 12.7 percent increase, making Chinas defense spending larger than that of all other Asian nations combined. Heritages Dean Cheng writes that those figures are a sobering statistic when one considers that this includes the worlds third-largest economy (Japan) and North and South Korea, which remain locked in a Cold War-era standoff. The National Interest. Dec. 3, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/china-theawkward-embrace-7797?page=1. This article, entitled China and the Awkward Embrace, is written by Dan Blumenthal and Phillip Swagel, both scholars at the American Enterprise Institute. The authors highlight numerous aspects of the rise of China that conflict with U.S. national interests: Consider Chinas military modernization, its treatment of its citizens, its intentions with respect to Taiwan, and its troublesome relations with U.S. allies such as Japan and international pariahs such as Iran; together these behaviors demonstrate a deep dissatisfaction with the liberal international order. Chinese policies aimed at upsetting that order are detrimental to U.S. interests.

PRO CASE #1: THE END OF HEGEMONY

The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in moving toward a cooperative relationship with other world powers, rather than trying to remain the sole superpower. All recent U.S. presidents have embraced the rise of China as a welcome development because it offers an opportunity to share responsibility for the maintenance of world order. OBSERVATIONS: I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A FUNDAMENTAL NATIONAL INTEREST IN DEVELOPING A COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER WORLD POWERS. A. COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIPS BOLSTER U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY.
Barack Obama, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, 2010, 5. Our efforts to shape an international order that promotes a just peace must facilitate cooperation capable of addressing the problems of our time. This international order will support our interests, but it is also an end that we seek in its own right. James Jones, (U.S. National Security Adviser to the President), THE PRESIDENTS 2010 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, May 27, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://fpc.state.gov/142282.htm. With regard to international order, we have an enduring national interest in an international order that promotes peace, security, and an opportunity through stronger cooperation to meet global challenges.

B. THE U.S. CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO BE THE WORLDS SOLE SUPERPOWER.

Christopher Preble, (Dir., Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute), THE POWER PROBLEM: HOW AMERICAN MILITARY DOMINANCE MAKES US LESS SAFE, LESS PROSPEROUS, AND LESS FREE, 2009, 133-134. In polls, Americans consistently reject hegemony in favor of burden sharing. In a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in July 2006, 75 percent of respondents believed that the United States "should do its share to solve world problems together with other countries" and only 10 percent wanted the United States to "remain the preeminent world leader in solving international problems." By a similar margin, respondents agreed with the proposition that "The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be." Bruce Stokes and Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center point out in their book America against the World that since the end of the Cold War, "no more than 13 percent of Americans have said the United States should be the single most important leader in the world."

II. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS CREATED A CONDITION OF INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA. A. THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA ARE NOW THE WORLDS TWO LARGEST ECONOMIES.
C. Fred Bergsten, (Dir., Peterson Institute for International Affairs), CHINAS RISE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES, 2008, 9. China has become a global economic superpower. It has the second largest national economy and is the second largest exporter. It has by far the world's largest current account surplus and foreign exchange reserves. Growth has averaged 10 percent for the past 30 years, the most stunning record in history. Real GDP in 2006 was about 13 times the level of 1978, when Deng Xiaoping initiated economic reforms.

B. CHINAS ECONOMIC POWER WILL SOON EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF THE UNITED STATES.
David Mason, (Prof., Political Science, Butler U.), THE END OF THE AMERICAN CENTURY, 2009, 191. Some economists expect China's economy to exceed that of the United States in size within a generation or two. Amazingly, the People's Republic of China already leads the world in the number of publicly traded companies with market values of more than $200 billion -- with eight among the top twenty in the world, compared to seven for the United States.

C. INTERDEPENDENCE IS CREATED BY CHINAS FINANCING OF THE U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT.

Zachary Karabell, (Ph.D., Harvard U.), SUPERFUSION: HOW CHINA AND AMERICA BECAME ONE ECONOMY AND WHY THE WORLDS PROSPERITY DEPENDS ON IT, 2009, 279. By 2008, China had become the largest creditor to the United States. It was the primary foreign buyer of everything from U.S. Treasuries to highly rated mortgage-backed securities. It made those investments because the United States was the largest market for China's exports and something had to be done with the dollars that were piling up due to the trade surplus with the United States. And because China's currency was pegged against the dollar, the investment focus of China's central bank was on American assets.

8 D. COOPERATION SUPPORTS THE FUNDAMENTAL INTERESTS OF BOTH NATIONS.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. [Chinese President] Hu's proposal that China and the United States should pursue global cooperation as partners was echoed by Obama's unreserved agreement. Meanwhile, analysts held that China-US cooperation on global and regional issues was in the fundamental interest of the two peoples and all humanity for the following reasons: China and the US are committed to the final goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. They will also join hands to tackle nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. The two countries are devoted to the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the solution of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. Given that the situation of the Korean Peninsula will continue to be a major regional and global concern for a long time, China and the United States will work with other concerned parties for an early resumption of the six-party nuclear disarmament talks.

CONTENTIONS: I. THE UNITED STATES HAS AN INTEREST IN SUPPORTING THE RISE OF CHINA. A. EVERY RECENT U.S. PRESIDENT HAS SUPPORTED THE RISE OF CHINA.
Andrew Nathan, (Prof., Political Science, Columbia U.), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Sept./Oct. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america? Beginning with President Richard Nixon, who visited China in 1972, a succession of American leaders have assured China of their goodwill. Every U.S. presidential administration says that China's prosperity and stability are in the interest of the United States.

B. THE UNITED STATES SHARES MANY FOREIGN POLICY GOALS WITH CHINA.
Elizabeth Economy, (Sr. Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, May/June 2009, 15. The good news is that the United States and China do share some fundamental foreign policy goals: kickstarting economic growth and maintaining an open global economy, maintaining peace and stability in East Asia, and halting climate change. There is already a robust process of government-to-government exchange, with more than 60 bilateral dialogues and working groups in existence, including the Strategic Economic Dialogue, the U.S.-China Senior Dialogue, and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. The United States and China have cooperated on counterterrorism, negotiated with North Korea through the six-party talks, and undertaken joint research on alternative energy. Recently, the Pentagon welcomed the deployment of the Chinese navy for antipiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, where both the United States and China depend on the same shipping lanes.

C. CHINA HAS SUPPORTED THE U.S. WAR ON TERRORISM.

Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXT AMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 31. Beijing stepped up, arresting numerous suspects with ties to al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11. At a critical time, China also pressured its close ally, Pakistan, to cooperate with the U.S. in counterterror operations and to accommodate the war in Afghanistan. Beijing agreed to freeze the accounts of terrorist suspects in Chinese banks. China has acceded to eleven of twelve international counterterrorism conventions. The FBI now has an office in Beijing. Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXT AMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 31. Most important, China has signed up to a major American antiterrorism program, the Container Security Initiative (CSI), designed to prevent terrorists from smuggling a nuclear weapon into the United States in a shipping container. "The container is the potential Trojan horse of the twenty-first century," says the head of U.S. Customs, Robert Bonner. Because American ports are vulnerable, CSI is aimed at finding WMDs before they are loaded onto ships. Each year over 3.2 million containers leave China's ports bound for the U.S., more than from any other country. U.S. customs officials are now welcomed in the ports of Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.

D. CHINA SUPPORTS STABILITY IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER.

Jian Yang, (Prof., International Relations, U. of Auckland, New Zealand), THE RISE OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009, 25-26. Chinese analysts, like Chinese officials, often point to the fact that China has joined over 100 international organizations and has signed 300 international treaties. Premier Wen Jiabao notes that China stands ready to work together with the international community to facilitate the establishment of a new international political and economic order. China "stands as a staunch force for international peace and stability on such major international and regional issues bearing on peace such as the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula and Iranian nuclear issue," says Wen. Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXT AMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 156. From a starting point of near zero in the violent Maoist period of the 1960s, China's memberships in international governmental organizations have shot up to well past the world average. Once in these organizations, far from rejecting the norms, China has played largely within the rules. For example, in the WTO, China has shown no signs of wanting to weaken the regime.

9 E. CHINA SUPPORTS A COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES.

Evelyn Goh, (Prof., International Relations, Oxford U.), THE RISE OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009, 63-64. As a result, Beijing publicly identifies cooperation rather than conflict as the main characteristic of current and future SinoAmerican relations. It is hoped that China's economic development will act as the foundation for USChina cooperation on technological advancements, and to ensure bilateral and regional stability to allow concentration on domestic development. Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXT AMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 153. Because of America's staying power, and the great importance to China of the U.S. relationship, China has gone out of its way to reassure Washington that it has no intention of trying to dethrone the US. Beijing is framing its path to reemergence as a "peaceful rise," with emphasis on "win-win" solutions and China's adherence to the principles of peace, equality, openness, and cooperation. Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. During [Chinese President] Hu's visit, Obama lauded the extraordinary achievements China had made during the past decades of development, and stressed that US-China cooperation served the core interests of both sides. The United States welcomed China's rise, and China's peaceful development benefited the US and the whole world, Obama added. Meanwhile, the Chinese side said it welcomed the United States as an Asia-Pacific nation that contributed to peace, stability and prosperity in the region.

F. CHINA IS NOT INTERESTED IN MILITARY DOMINATION.

Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, (Prof., Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad), THE FRONTIER POST, Apr. 17, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. [China] has no imperial legacy in Asia like the US "Monroe Doctrine." Unlike Japan, it is not perceived with any militaristic ambitions. It has extensive borders with Central Asia and Russia and does not see South Asia as its "backyard". Growing economic and political interdependence with its Asian neighbors, including India allays fears of China's domination or expansionism.

G. THE RISE OF CHINA IS CONTRIBUTING TO INTERNAL ECONOMIC FREEDOM.

C. Fred Bergsten, (Dir., Peterson Institute for International Affairs), CHINAS RISE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES, 2008, 1-2. China has changed much in the last 25 to 30 years, and not just for foreigners living there (now numbering 150,000 in Beijing alone). Chinese citizens increasingly work where they want, live where they want, travel where they want, and interact how they want in ways unimaginable 30 years ago. Their lives are also more complicated than they were back then, changed by an economy that has grown 13 times since it began to open up in 1978 and a government that has scrambled to keep political pace with the dramatic social changes that have accompanied the economic development.

II. CHINA DOES NOT REPRESENT A MILITARY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES. A. CHINAS MILITARY CAPABILITY IS TINY COMPARED TO THE U.S.
Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXT AMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 48. A head-to-head comparison of China's military with that of the U.S. is like comparing a rusty old pickup to an eighteen-wheeler. While it is easy for observers to take one statistic or another out of context to make Chinese capabilities seem foreboding, a complete comparison reveals the chasm that separates them. Robert Farley, (Prof., International Relations, U. Kentucky), NEW ATLANTICIST, May 6, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/debate-do-we-need-11-carrier-groups-no. Gates really understates US supremacy. It's not simply that the United States has eleven carrier battle groups and the Russians have only one; the US is close allies with most of the other major naval powers in the world. The British, French, Japanese, Italian, South Korean, Spanish, Canadian, and Australian navies are all quite large by world standards, and are all tied to the United States by formal treaty arrangements.

B. CHINAS MILITARY SPENDING IS A SMALL FRACTION OF U.S. SPENDING.

George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING DWARFS THE REST OF THE WORLD, Aug. 6, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/06/defense-spendingfact-of-the-day_n_1746685.html. The United States spends 58 percent of the total defense dollars paid out by the world's top 10 military powers, which combined for $1.19 trillion in military funding in 2011. With its unparalleled global reach, the US outspends China, the next-biggest military power, by nearly 6-to-1.

PRO CASE #2: NONPROLIFERATION REGIME

10 The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, the United States lacks the necessary influence with potential proliferators to properly support the nonproliferation regime. China, given its leadership position among non-aligned and developing countries, has the influence that the U.S. lacks. Fortunately, the rise of China has provided the motivation for the Chinese leadership to support international nonproliferation efforts. This supports U.S. national interests. OBSERVATIONS: I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A FUNDAMENTAL NATIONAL INTEREST IN PREVENTING THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. A. FAILURE IN THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME LEADS TO NUCLEAR TERRORISM
Patricia Hewitson, (J.D. Candidate, U. California at Berkeley School of Law), BERKELEY journal of INTERNATIONAL LAW, 2003, 405. The United States has a powerful interest in maximizing the effectiveness of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime, partly because it provides the best protection against nuclear terrorism.

B. FAILURE IN THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME WILL LEAD TO WAR.

Doug Bandow, (Sr. Fellow, Cato Institute), THE NATIONAL INTEREST, Apr. 1, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from . Nonproliferation long has been an American and European priority. Best achieved peacefully, the U.S. government nevertheless views the objective as important enough to warrant war. Even today Washington refuses to forswear military action against Iran and North Korea.

CONTENTIONS: I. CHINAS RISE HAS TURNED THAT NATION INTO A SUPPORTER OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME. A. BEFORE ITS RISE, CHINA ACTUALLY SUPPORTED THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
Stephanie Lieggi, (Professor, Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies), STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Summer 2010, 41. From the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949 until the 1980s, China was highly suspicious of most arms control efforts, viewing them as attempts by the United States and the Soviet Union to strengthen their existing strategic superiority. Beijing was dismissive of arms control efforts in the early 1960s as it attempted to build its own nuclear arsenal. China, particularly under Mao, advocated that more nations should have nuclear weapons to act as a balance against the massive arsenals of the two Cold War superpowers. In the 1970s and 1980s, Beijing supplied nuclear weaponsrelated technology and designs to countries in the Middle East and South Asia.

B. AFTER ITS RISE, CHINA HAS BECOME A SUPPORTER OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME.
Chu Shulong, (Prof., International Affairs, Tsinghua U., Beijing), THE LONG SHADOW: NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ST SECURITY IN 21 CENTURY ASIA, 2008, 177-178. China's position and action toward arms control, disarmament, and especially nonproliferation have changed dramatically since the mid-1990s. China, in the words of Americans and others, has shifted from being "part of the problem" to "part of the solution." The year 2006 saw China becoming a force in the global efforts against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), such as in North Korea and Iran. Looking into the future, as long as China continues to be an integral part of global economic and security systems, and as long as its relations with the United States and other Western countries are normal, it will remain committed to the global nonproliferation regime. Chu Shulong, (Prof., International Affairs, Tsinghua U., Beijing), THE LONG SHADOW: NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ST SECURITY IN 21 CENTURY ASIA, 2008, 179. China's participation in global arms control and nonproliferation regimes is the primary constraint on Chinese nuclear behavior. China has taken a generally active position on nuclear arms control since the 1990s and now supports most international nuclear arms control regimes. Stephanie Lieggi, (Professor, Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies), STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Summer 2010, 39. As China's view of the international community (and its own place in it) changed, so too did its policy towards the proliferation of WMD. Much of this change was brought about by a mixture of factors touching on various issues facing Beijing, such as national security interests, economic stability, and international prestige. The factors that most affected China's actions included significant international (particularly US) pressure placed on Beijing in the 1990s to adopt stronger nonproliferation policies, Beijing's growing recognition that proliferation of WMD was detrimental to its own security interests, and concern within the Chinese leadership about the impact of China-based proliferation on Beijing's acceptance as a responsible member of the world community. One of the areas within the nonproliferation regime where China has most notably changed in recent years is the field of nonproliferation-related trade controls, particularly export controls.

11

II. CHINESE INFLUENCE IS ESSENTIAL TO THE SUCCESS OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME. A. CHINA PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN PREVENTING PAKISTAN FROM SHARING NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY WITH OTHER NATIONS IN THE MIDEAST.
Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXT AMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 35. Since the mid-1990s, China has greatly improved its domestic control over the flow of sensitive technologies, signed bilateral agreements with the U.S., and joined international conventions such as the NPT, the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and others, all of which require adherence to specific guidelines on the transfer of nuclear materials. The People's Republic was instrumental in felling the most notorious nuclear swap meet of our time, run by Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan, whose customers included Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Libya.

B. CHINA HAS INFLUENCE WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN THAT THE U.S. LACKS.
Stuart Wiggin, (Editor, China Radio International), IRAN IS A CRUCIAL TEST OF CHINESE INFLUENCE, Mar. 8, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-03/08/content_24840965.htm. It is over the issue of Iran, more than Syria, where China's power of influence will come into play and truly be tested. Iran provides 10-15 percent of China's oil supplies, but moves designed to reduce Chinese reliance on Iranian oil, alongside diplomatic posturing have sent the clearest message yet to Iran that their current position is becoming untenable. Nancy Youssef, (Staff, McClatchy Newspapers), U.S. COUNTING ON CHINAS INFLUENCE TO CURB NORTH KOREA, Nov. 24, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/11/24/104301/us-counting-onchinas-influence.html. The U.S. called on China Wednesday to use its political clout to rein in North Korea as American officials confronted the limits of their influence over one of the world's most unpredictable, and least understood, nuclear powers. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during an appearance on ABC's "The View," that China's role was "critical" to keeping North Korea from undertaking provocative acts such as Tuesday's shelling of a South Korean island, which left four people dead, including two civilians. "The one country that has influence in Pyongyang is China," Mullen said, referring to North Korea's capital. "Their leadership is absolutely critical."

C. CHINA HAS BEGUN USING ITS INFLUENCE WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN TO PREVENT NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION.
Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Feb. 24, 2012, A12. In the two years before he died, Kim Jong-il visited China three times. During those visits, a Chinese official with close ties to North Korea said, Beijing pledged to back Kim Jong-un as the next leader on the condition that North Korea would refrain from provocative actions, like a third nuclear detonation. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its basic public stance on Thursday, saying that peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula was of utmost importance, and urging a resumption of the six-nation talks. Kyodo News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Aug. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 2, 2013 from Nexis. China has also spurned North Korea's repeated calls to acquire the Chinese J-type fighter and buy anti-freeze fuel produced in China, diplomatic sources said. China's refusal to North Korea's proposal for a joint military exercise contrasts starkly to growing bilateral cooperation in the economic field, such as joint development of special economic zones in border areas. It also contrasts with Beijing's readiness to hold security-related drills with other countries. China has held joint military exercises or antiterrorism drills with Russia and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, France and other countries. Herb Keinon, (Staff), JERUSALEM POST, July 4, 2012, 3. The British ambassador said that the there was an "impressive measure of unity" inside the P5+1, including unity demonstrated by Russia and China, and that the Iranians were disappointed if they thought they could play Russia and China against the other countries inside the group. He also said that concerns China and Russia would undercut the sanctions against Iran have not materialized, and that the Chinese have not increased their oil imports from Iran. China "is aware of the serious weight of international opinion" on this issue, he said. Scott Peterson, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Sept. 13, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 2, 2013 from Nexis. The board of the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna voted nearly unanimously today to condemn Iran over its nuclear program, with the US and Western allies bringing Russia and China on board. The 35-member governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed "serious concern that Iran continues to defy" UN Security Council sanctions that require a halt to enrichment, and the resolution of outstanding questions about possible nuclear weapons-related work.

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PRO CASE #3: ECONOMIC PROSPERITY

The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in supporting economic prosperity, both in America and around the globe. The rise of China has been an engine of economic prosperity in the United States, in China, and around the world. OBSERVATIONS: I. ECONOMIC PROSPERITY IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES. A. REDUCING WORLD POVERTY IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES.
Vincent Ferraro, (Prof., International Politics, Mount Holyoke College), ECSP REPORT, 2003, 16. There are about two billion people in the world who cannot participate in any meaningful way in the global economy. There is a clear national interest in deepening the process of economic integration to include the global poor. Vincent Ferraro, (Prof., International Politics, Mount Holyoke College), ECSP REPORT, 2003, 12. The 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States was a watershed document in a number of ways including its assertion that addressing global poverty is important to U.S. national security.

B. MAINTAINING A GROWING U.S. ECONOMY IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES.

James Jones, (U.S. National Security Adviser to the President), THE PRESIDENTS 2010 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, May 27, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://fpc.state.gov/142282.htm. With regard to prosperity, we have an enduring national interest in a strong, innovative, and growing U.S. economy and an open international economic system that promotes opportunity and prosperity for everyone.

CONTENTIONS: I. THE RISE OF CHINA PROMOTES ECONOMIC PROSPERITY AROUND THE WORLD AND IN THE U.S. A. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS DRAMATICALLY REDUCED WORLD POVERTY.
Charles Krakof, (Managing Partner of Koios Associates & Former Economic Consultant at the World Bank), EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK, Aug. 21, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.emergingmarketsoutlook.com/?p=1490. Chinas progress in reducing poverty dwarfs the combined effects of all other poverty reduction programs undertaken by anyone, anywhere in the world, over the past 30 years. Charles Krakof, (Managing Partner of Koios Associates & Former Economic Consultant at the World Bank), EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK, Aug. 21, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.emergingmarketsoutlook.com/?p=1490. Since 1978, when market-oriented economic reforms began, China has experienced the most rapid and sustained increase in human prosperity in world history. According to the World Bank, more than 600 million people have been lifted out of poverty during this period. The number of Chinese living in poverty has fallen from 65% of the population to around 10%. In both absolute numbers and percentage of population this is unprecedented. Danny Quah, (Professor, Economics, London School of Economics), THE STRAITS TIMES, June 24, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. That global economic activity has moved east in this graphic fashion shows the rapid growth in incomes going to the large chunks of humanity who live in China, India and East Asia. Together with this growth has been the lifting from extreme poverty of over 600 million people - a large and rapid improvement in the well-being of humanity, unprecedented in the history of this planet. Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, (Prof., Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad), THE FRONTIER POST, Apr. 17, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. [Chinas] economic accomplishments are that more than 350 million people have lifted out poverty, unemployment is lower and it has emerged as the second largest global economy with value of its domestic market exceeding 5 trillion US and imports exceeding three trillion. Parul Tandon, (MBA, Delhi Technological University), THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS, Feb. 27, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. Recall what China looked like only 30 years ago. It was one of the world's poorest countries, ruled by totalitarian government. It was just emerging from Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution, which had destroyed universities, schools and factories, all to revitalize the revolution. Since then, 400 million people have been lifted out of poverty in China. Lawrence Summers, an American economist, points out that during the Industrial Revolution, the average European's living standards rose about 50% over the course of his lifetime (then about 40 years). In China, he calculates, the average person's living standards are set to rise by 10,000% in a lifetime! In two decades, China has experienced the same degree of industrialization, urbanization and social transformation as Europe did in two centuries.

13 B. THE RISE OF CHINA BENEFITS ALL NATIONS.

Danny Quah, (Professor, Economics, London School of Economics), THE STRAITS TIMES, June 24, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. In the last three global economic downturns, China provided a growth boost to the world economy multiple times what the US provided. What good would it do if the West disrupted so successful a poverty-reducing machine, so effective a stabilizing influence for the global economy' Marilyn Wolf, (Staff), FINANCIAL TIMES, Dec. 5, 2011, 8. China's performance has been astonishing: "Since 1978 China has maintained rapid economic growth for 33 consecutive years. The average annual growth is 9.9 per cent and the average annual growth of foreign trade is 16.3 per cent. Second, China's growth has also benefited the world. Thus, China's strong growth during the crisis was the most important driving force for the global economy. Martin Wolf, (Staff), FINANCIAL TIMES, Dec. 5, 2011, 8. China's growth has also benefited the world. Thus, "China's strong growth during the crisis was the most important driving force for the global economy." Similarly, "over 2000-07 two-thirds of the economies in Africa grew at more than 5.5 per cent a year, and nearly one-third reached 7 per cent. Again, such unprecedented growth in Africa was in large part thanks to China." Wen Jiabao, (Chinese Premier), BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, June 28, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. China's peaceful development is an opportunity rather than a threat to the rest of the world. China has become an engine driving global economic growth, having contributed to over 20 percent of world economic growth each year in the past five years. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has imported close to 750 billion U.S. dollars of goods every year, creating over 14 million jobs for relevant countries and regions. China's import is expected to exceed 8 trillion U.S. dollars in the next five years, and this will provide more business opportunities for other countries. The 21st century should be a century of cooperation rather than conflict and rivalry. China is committed to upholding world peace. We have consistently called for settling international disputes by peaceful means and opposed the use of force. China will work with the rest of the international community to undertake responsibilities, meet challenges and make the international system more equitable, just and inclusive.

C. THE RISE OF CHINA SUPPORTS ECONOMIC PROSPERITY IN THE UNITED STATES. 1. China finances the U.S. deficit.
FINANCIAL TIMES, Sept. 6, 2011, 9. China financed the US current account deficit by recycling its own surplus into US Treasury bonds.

2. Chinas economic infusion prevented an economic collapse during the 2008 downturn in the U.S.
Brian Milner, (Staff), THE GLOBE AND MAIL, June 17, 2011, A10. At the height of the global economic crisis in 2008, governments everywhere opened the taps and flooded their financial systems with capital. But none came close to matching the scale, scope or speed of the Chinese response. Beijing pumped in close to $900-billion (U.S.), at a time when Washington was still debating spending its first $100billion. Other major economies were staring at a job-crushing recession. China was worried because growth had fallen below double digits. Unlike deficit-ridden governments in the U.S. and Europe, Beijing was - and still is swimming in surpluses. So money was no object. The Chinese leadership was highly motivated to do whatever it took to get the economy back on the fast track.

3. China offers major expansion markets for U.S. products.

David Wighton, (Staff), LONDON TIMES, Jan. 6, 2011, 39. Overcapacity is the great curse of the car industry. So the rise of China as the next great market could not have come soon enough. China has already overtaken the US in terms of total vehicle sales and will do so in cars before long. For General Motors, China is already its biggest market. Xinhua News Agency, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Aug. 19, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. "It is estimated that in the next five years, China will import commodities worth more than 8 trillion U.S. dollars," [Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping] said, noting that China's total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 31 trillion yuan (5.17 trillion U.S. dollars). "This will provide more business opportunities for foreign enterprises, including US companies," he said. Xinhua News Agency, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Feb. 14, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. China has been the fastest growing market for US exports nine years in a row. Millions of American jobs are closely tied to China-US trade. As of late October 2010, the United States had a total of 59,000 investment projects in China, with a combined $64.625 billion in actual investment. US-funded enterprises post more than $220 billion in sales on the Chinese market each year. Meanwhile, Chinese enterprises have also boosted their investments in the United States rapidly.

14 II. CLAIMS THAT THE RISE OF CHINA THREATENS THE U.S. ECONOMY ARE MISTAKEN. A. THE WORRY THAT CHINA WILL DUMP ITS U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS IS WITHOUT MERIT.
C. Fred Bergsten, (Dir., Peterson Institute for International Affairs), CHINAS RISE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES, 2008, 18. Any partial sale of their current dollar holdings (or rumors thereof) would drive down the value of their remaining dollar holdings, probably sharply. The Chinese authorities are already under considerable domestic criticism for the sizable losses they have incurred as the dollar has dropped over the past six years, by a cumulative average of 25 to 30 percent against other currencies, by more than 50 percent against the euro and some other plausible alternatives, and by even more against "real" assets such as oil and many other commodities. Since it would be technically impossible for the Chinese to sell anything close to their dollar total of $1 trillion or so instantaneously, they would be shooting themselves in the financial foot in a major way through such action. Barry Eichengreen, (Prof., Economics, U. Cal., Berkeley), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Sep/Oct 2009, 53-68. The Chinese government is aware that it is trapped by the magnitude of its current dollar holdings. Selling U.S. Treasury securities in the quantities needed to significantly alter the composition of China's reserve portfolio would make the prices of these securities tank. If the People's Bank of China moved significant amounts of money from dollars to other currencies, the dollar would depreciate, causing further losses on China's residual holdings. The specter of such effects deters Beijing from acting hastily. Barry Eichengreen, (Prof., Economics, U. Cal., Berkeley), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Sep/Oct 2009, 53-68. John Maynard Keynes' famous remark comes to mind: "If you owe your bank manager a thousand pounds, you are at his mercy. If you owe him a million pounds, he is at your mercy." Zachary Karabell, (Ph.D., Harvard U.), SUPERFUSION: HOW CHINA AND AMERICA BECAME ONE ECONOMY AND WHY THE WORLDS PROSPERITY DEPENDS ON IT, 2009, 280. If it no longer purchased U.S. debt, what would the country do with its vast dollar-denominated holdings? And if the U.S. economy truly collapsed, what would happen to those parts of the Chinese economy that depended on exports to the United States? Having lent the United States so much money, what happened on Wall Street was now Beijing's problem just as it was Washington's albatross. And having borrowed so much from China, and with the bulk of American companies depending on China for growth, the fortunes of the United States were now linked to Beijing.

B. CHINAS RISE PROVIDES A MAJOR INCENTIVE TO PRESERVE PEACEFUL RELATIONS.

Malcolm Turnbull, (Former Leader, Australias Liberal Party), THE GUARDIAN, Oct. 6, 2011, 41. The central role of trade in China's prosperity also argues for its rise to remain peaceful. At 55% of its GDP in 2010, it has more to lose than most from any conflict that disrupts global economic flows. Kevin Cooney, (Prof., Political Science & International Relations, Union U.), THE RISE OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009, 40. The United States is economically heavily investing itself in China as rapidly as possible. This economic investment ties China's future success to the United States and vice versa.

C. THERE IS NO RISK THAT THE DOLLAR WILL BE DISPLACED AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY THE RISE OF CHINA HAS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENED THE DOLLAR.
Sanjeev Sanyal, (Economist, Deutsche Bank), LONDON TIMES, Dec. 30, 2011, 36. Note how the relative rise of China did not diminish the role of the dollar and may even have enhanced it. Indeed, like the Japanese during their period of high growth, the Chinese resisted the internationalization of the yuan until very recently and even now are proceeding cautiously. So should we expect the demise of the dollar? The best sign of the resilience of the dollar-based system is that its trade-weighted index has been stable since the crisis began hardly a sign that it is being abandoned. Far from it, the world appears to be willing to finance the US at very low interest rates. ASIAMONEY, Oct. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. A global reserve currency is universally accepted as a repository of value and can be freely traded in deep and liquid financial markets. Among such currencies count the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound and Swiss franc. As a result, the Chinese currency, the renminbi - also known as the yuan - is unlikely to become a key reserve currency, let alone surpass that of the US dollar anytime soon. Tom Holland, (Staff), SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, Feb. 10, 2012, 10. China is also opening up to cross-border capital flows. Although Beijing retains many restrictions, over the last five years the value of China's foreign assets and liabilities has doubled to more than US$6 trillion. However, as the second chart shows, that's tiny by the standards of the US, or even Britain. China's gross external position is now roughly the same size as that of Switzerland, whose currency the franc, according to the International Monetary Fund, makes up only about 0.1 per cent of the world's foreign reserves. Clearly China still has a long way to go on opening up to capital flows.

15 D. CHINAS ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS NOT COME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.
Robert Kagan, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), AGAINST THE MYTH OF AMERICAN DECLINE, JAN. 17, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/01/17-us-power-kagan. In economic terms, and even despite the current years of recession and slow growth, Americas position in the world has not changed. Its share of the worlds GDP has held remarkably steady, not only over the past decade but over the past four decades. In 1969, the United States produced roughly a quarter of the worlds economic output. Today it still produces roughly a quarter, and it remains not only the largest but also the richest economy in the world. People are rightly mesmerized by the rise of China, India, and other Asian nations whose share of the global economy has been climbing steadily, but this has so far come almost entirely at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have had a declining share of the global economy.

E. CHINA IS NOW FULLY ON BOARD WITH THE PROTECTION OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS.
Xuan-Thao Nguyen, (Prof., Law, SMU School of Law), SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY LAW JOURNAL, Spring 2011, 774. Recent empirical data and translations of Chinese court decisions on intellectual property rights, however, offer a startling new picture of China that directly contradicts the long-held view of China by the United States and the West with respect to intellectual property. The new data reveals that China has accelerated its embrace of intellectual property as an important asset. The Chinese society has become very protective of intellectual property rights, as seen through the tens of thousands of cases that were brought in recent years by Chinese individuals and corporations against Chinese infringers.

F. CHINAS ECONOMY NOW DEPENDS ON MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.
Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. "Today, our economies are entwined, and so are our futures," US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was quoted by the CNN as saying. Meanwhile, British newspaper The Guardian said China-U.S economic relations were considered as interdependent relations rather than solely a trade partnership. Currently, the United States is China's second largest export market and its major source of investment. In 2010, China's exports to the United States reached 280 billion US dollars, with more than 30 Chinese companies becoming listed on US capital markets. In the meantime, China is the US's third largest and fastest growing export market. As the total volume of US exports to China reached 100 billion dollars, 500,000 jobs were created in the United States thanks alone to manufacturing and agricultural exports to China. Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. Wang Yong, director of the Centre for International Political Economy of Peking University, said closer economic and trade relations were the engine and ballast stone for China-US ties. If their economies and cooperation developed at the current rate, the interdependent China-U.S economies would also become a powerful driving force and stabilizer for the world economy, Wang said. Xinhua News Agency, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Feb. 14, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. Today communications at all levels between China and the United States are closer than they have ever been. So far more than 60 dialogue and consultation mechanisms have been created. In particular, the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue provides an important platform for expanding and deepening bilateral dialogue and cooperation at the strategic level. George Schwab, chairman of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, said, "What China and the United States need to do is to open many, many more channels of communication, in order to see where our interests coincide and where our interests differ. Let us talk to see how we can overcome the differences." Driven by head-of-state diplomacy, China-US cooperation, from politics to economics, from culture to science and technology, is growing at multiple levels across the board with each passing day. Connections between the two countries have increased to an extent never seen before. Greg Torode, (Staff), SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, Nov. 21, 2012, 1. Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday used his last meeting with US President Barack Obama to push for stability between Washington and Beijing's new leadership. In a wide-ranging meeting at the ASEAN East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, the two leaders discussed economic and security issues, including the growing territorial disputes between China and its neighbors. Wen, who will be stepping down from the post of premier next March, spoke of the global importance of the Sino-US relationship, urging continuing efforts to construct new relations. "Maintaining the steady, healthy and stable development conforms to the fundamental interests of both countries and people. It is also conducive to peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and the world," he said. He added that mutual economic and financial interests could help the two countries tackle "the difficulties we have and resolve the differences and disagreements between us". Dilip Hiro, (Journalist), AFTER EMPIRE: THE BIRTH OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD, 2009, 147. Today, measured by the Purchasing Power Parity, China's GDP is only behind America's. Its foreign reserves of $1.9 trillion are more than three times those of the sixteen-nation Eurozone. As the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds (maturing in five, ten, or thirty years), it has become the "indispensable nation" for the Federal Reserve Bank.

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CON CASE #1: U.S. LEADERSHIP

The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in maintaining its leadership position in the world. The rise of China undermines U.S. leadership because its economic strength is contributing to a military buildup designed to challenge U.S. supremacy. In addition, China persistently undermines international efforts to limit the nuclear intentions of Iran and North Korea. OBSERVATION: I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A NATIONAL INTEREST IN MAINTAINING GLOBAL LEADERSHIP. A. GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IS ESSENTIAL TO THE PRESERVATION OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY.
James Jones, (U.S. National Security Adviser to the President), THE PRESIDENTS 2010 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, May 27, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://fpc.state.gov/142282.htm. This National Security Strategy is one of national renewal and global leadership, and it advances our interests by building the sources of American strength and influence and shaping a world that is more peaceful and certainly more prosperous. Michael G. Mullen, (Former Chairman, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff), COALITION FOR FISCAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY'S STATEMENT ON THE FISCAL CLIFF, Dec. 4, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.cfr.org/financial-crises/coalition-fiscal-national-securitys-statement-fiscal-cliff-december-2012/p29610. In the coming decades and beyond, America must continue its critical engagement and leadership in global affairs in order to protect the U.S. national interest and ensure a safer world. At the end of World War II, the United States represented a dominant share of the global economy, enabling an assured hegemonic status. The reality that other nations rise in no way lessens the imperative for American leadership we have unique collective strengths and remain the indispensable nation for global peace, prosperity and freedom.

B. THE LOSS OF U.S. LEADERSHIP WILL LEAD TO ANARCHY.

Fred Kaplan, (Ph.D., MIT & Foreign Policy Journalist), DAYDREAM BELIEVERS: HOW A FEW GRAND IDEAS WRECKED AMERICAN POWER, 2008, 195. On a more strategic level, a world without blocs or clear power centers could easily devolve into anarchy, in which no country or group of countries can amass the strength and legitimacy to reward the good, deter or punish the bad, and impose rules and order. In such a world, the shrewd assertion of American power remains essential because America is the only nation theoretically capable of global leadership--because it is, for now, the only nation that possesses global reach, politically, economically, and militarily. Gideon Rachman, (Staff), FINANCIAL TIMES, Mar. 17, 2012, 13. Precisely because a liberal world order is dependent on an underpinning of US power, [Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, Robert] Kagan argues that it is considerably more fragile than many people believe. If US decline becomes a reality, then a liberal world order could crumble with it - much as the fall of Rome led to the Dark Ages. In a post-American world, we might discover that "the alternative to American power was not peace and harmony but chaos and catastrophe". Thomas Donnelly, (Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute), THE CURRENT AND FUTURE ROLES, MISSIONS, AND CAPABILITIES OF U.S. MILITARY LAND POWER, Hrg., Senate Armed Services Comm., Mar. 26, 2009, 20. American international leadership has a number of geopolitical, economic, and security corollaries. Indeed, our security role is the bedrock of today's global order; conversely, absent the organizing function played by the United States, the world would most likely devolve into a competition between various blocs of states, and non-state actors -terror groups, criminal syndicates and the like -- would find themselves in constant conflict. The dangers of failing states, or, as John Quincy Adams called them, derelict states, would be exponentially greater and the world's ability to address these dangers so much weaker.

C. U.S. MILITARY POWER PRESERVES WORLD PEACE AND STABILITY.

Michael Mandlebaum, (Prof., International Relations, Johns Hopkins U.), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, 2010, 6. U.S. military power helps to keep order in the world. The American military presence in Europe and East Asia, which now includes approximately 185,000 personnel, reassures the governments of these regions that their neighbors cannot threaten them, helping to allay suspicions, forestall arms races, and make the chances of armed conflict remote.

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Michael Mandlebaum, (Prof., International Relations, Johns Hopkins U.), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, 2010, 6-7. In the international economy, much of the confidence needed to proceed with transactions, and the protection that engenders this confidence, comes from the policies of the United States. For example, the U.S. Navy patrols shipping lanes in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, assuring the safe passage of commerce along the world's great trade routes. The United States also supplies the world's most frequently used currency, the U.S. dollar.

CONTENTIONS: I. THE RISE OF CHINAS MILITARY UNDERMINES U.S. LEADERSHIP. A. CHINA HAS TRIPLED ITS MILITARY BUDGET.
Ian Johnson, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 16, 2011, A6. China has become the largest trading partner with most of the countries in the region, undercutting American economic influence. It also is projecting military power more broadly than at any other time in modern history. Its true military budget is not made public, but experts say it has at least tripled over the past decade, allowing China to strengthen a relatively weak maritime presence by building more modern ships that can operate with greater range and arming its first aircraft carrier. It has shown off what appears to be new stealth aircraft and has bought advanced weapons from Russia.

B. CHINAS OFFICIAL DEFENSE SPENDING FIGURES DISGUISE A MUCH LARGER INCREASE.

Bill Emmott, (Former Editor-In-Chief, The Economist), RIVALS: HOW THE POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN CHINA, INDIA AND JAPAN WILL SHAPE OUR NEXT DECADE, 2009, 241. The Chinese government's latest defense budget, published in early 2007, included a 17.8 percent rise in military spending in renminbi terms, to the equivalent of $45 billion, a jump that sent eyebrows rising all over Asia and certainly in Washington. That was the tenth successive double-digit rise in the annual military budget in local-currency terms. The official figure is thought by analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a Londonbased think tank, to understate the true total by 30-50 percent because it omits unofficial revenues earned by the People's Liberation Army as well as weapons bought abroad and much defense equipment research.

C. CHINAS MILITARY BUILDUP IS THE FASTEST IN THE WORLD.

Eamonn Fingleton, (Editor, Financial Times), IN THE JAWS OF THE DRAGON: AMERICAS FATE IN THE COMING ERA OF CHINESE HEGEMONY, 2008, 302. It is not an accident that the recent rate of growth in China's military spending -- at an average of more than 10 percent a year since the mid-1990s -- has been one of the world's fastest. While a detailed discussion of likely future U. S. - China military rivalry is beyond the scope of this book, a few points can be made. First, analysts at the U.S. Naval War College calculate that China will draw broadly level with the United States as a military power in the AsiaPacific region by 2020.

D. CHINAS RECENT TEST OF AN ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPON DEMONSTRATED A CAPABILITY TO DESTROY U.S. MILITARY SATELLITES.
David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 377. The Chinese are thinking big. They recognize that America's vulnerability lies in its high-tech infrastructure. So while the Taliban labored away in basements building magnetic IEDs to stick under cars, the Chinese labored away in computer labs and missile sites. No one gets hurt in an antimissile attack. But China's military strategists know they can do far more damage to the United States by threatening to take out the military and civilian satellite systems than by threatening a nuclear confrontation. David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 376. The satellite the Chinese shot down--on the somewhat thin pretext that it could pose a danger if it fell on a populated area--was traveling at a far higher altitude than the satellites that aim America's precision weapons, run its GPS systems, keep cell phone calls connected, warn of troop movements, detect nuclear sites, and transmit financial data around the world. Presumably, if Beijing could take out the weather satellite, it could turn off America's lights in space.

E. CHINA IS UPGRADING ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL.

David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 382-383. What really grabs the attention of the China hawks in Washington, however, is the gradually increasing size and sophistication of the country's nuclear arsenal--and the number of weapons aimed at the United States.

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David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMA CONFRONTS AND THE CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 383. The Chinese began deploying a new, mobile-launched, land-based missile--called the DF-31A--that is difficult for American forces to target and, perhaps more worrisome, can reach just about the entire United States. American intelligence officials estimated that by 2015, China will have 75 to 100 warheads aimed at American territory--not exactly how you treat a "strategic partner." Robert Willard, (Commander, U.S. Forces, Pacific Command), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Mar. 26, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2010 from Nexis. China maintains a nuclear force capable of ranging most of the world, including the continental United States. This capability has been enhanced through the development of increasingly sophisticated road mobile delivery systems as well as the development of the Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (JIN-class SSBN). Despite assertions that China opposes the "weaponization" of space, the PLA is developing a multi-dimensional program to deny potential adversaries the use of space, an element of which was demonstrated in January 2007 when China intentionally destroyed one of its own weather satellites with a direct ascent anti-satellite weapon.

F. THE CHINESE NAVAL BUILDUP IS SUBSTANTIAL.

John Tkacik, Jr., (Sr. Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS IN WORLD POLITICS, 2010, 99. U.S. intelligence agencies can plainly see where the money is going. China is assembling a blue-water navy, with a submarine fleet of 29 modern boats, including 13 super-quiet Russian-made Kilo class subs and 14 Chinese-made Song and Yuan class diesel electric submarines that are reportedly improved versions of the Kilos. At least 10 more of these submarines are in China's shipyards, together with five new nuclear ballistic missile and attack boats. China's surface fleet is also undergoing a similar modernization. Robert Willard, (Commander, U.S. Forces, Pacific Command), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Mar. 26, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2010 from Nexis. China continues to field the largest conventional submarine force in the world totaling more than 60 boats; while the quality of China's submarine fleet is mixed the percentage of modern, quiet submarines in the fleet is growing. This fleet also includes a number of nuclear powered fast attack and ballistic missile submarines. China is also developing a new submarine launched nuclear ballistic missile, the JL-2, capable of ranging the western United States. Robert Willard, (Commander, U.S. Forces, Pacific Command), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Mar. 26, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2010 from Nexis. The PLA Navy is continuing to develop a "Blue Water" capability that includes the ability to surge surface combatants and submarines at extended distances from the PRC mainland. Modernization programs have included development of sophisticated shipboard air defense systems as well as supersonic sea-skimming anti-ship cruise missiles.

G. THE BUILDUP OF CHINESE AIR POWER IS SUBSTANTIAL.

John Tkacik, Jr., (Sr. Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS IN WORLD POLITICS, 2010, 99. China's power in the air and in space is also on the rise. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force has about 300 Russian-designed fourth-generation Sukhoi-27 Flankers and a number of Chinese-built Jian-11 planes and 76 Sukhoi-30 multi-role jets. With Russian and Israeli assistance, the PLA Air Force has acquired an additional 50 or so Jian-10 fighters based on U.S. F-16 technology and reportedly plans to build 250 more. China's rocket forces are also expanding at an unprecedented pace, with production and deployment of short-range ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan increasing from 50 per year during the 1990s to between 100 and 150 per year today. Presumably, output from Chinese ICBM factories is expanding at a similar pace. Most recently, China's January 12 test of highly sophisticated direct-ascent "kinetic kill vehicle" (KKV) technology, coupled with attempts to blind or laser-illuminate a U.S. reconnaissance satellite in 2006, are convincing evidence of the PLA's intention to neutralize the United States' military assets in space in any conflict.

H. THE CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP DEMONSTRATES A DESIRE TO UNDERMINE U.S. HEGEMONY.

John Tkacik, Jr., (Sr. Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS IN WORLD POLITICS, 2010, 99. Despite the Chinese Communist Party leadership's espousal of China's "peaceful rise," the unprecedented peacetime expansion of China's military capabilities betrays a clear intent to challenge the United States in the Western Pacific and establish itself as the region's predominant military power. With China's massive GDP [gross domestic product] and military spending at an estimated 4.5 percent of GDP, the resources that Beijing now devotes to its armed forces surely make it a top global power. The exact methodology that U.S. intelligence agencies use to arrive at this estimate is classified, but it reportedly takes into account the fact that China's budget figures do not include foreign arms purchases, subsidies to military industries, any of China's space program (which is under the command of the Central Military Commission), or the costs of the 660,000 strong "People's Armed Police." It appears that some defense spending sectors that are not counted in the defense budget have increased much faster than the budget itself.

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Kevin Cooney, (Prof., Political Science & International Relations, Union U.), THE RISE OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009, 41-42. China seems to be announcing to the world through its actions (not words) that it is planning to engage the United States militarily in the future. Probably not in the near future, but someday in the future China plans to be America's military enemy and is preparing its military for that day. As former CIA Director R. James Woolsey put it, "China is pursuing a national strategy of domination of the energy markets and strategic dominance of the western Pacific."

I. CHINAS MILITARY BUILDUP IS DESTABILIZING.

Bill Gertz, (Staff), WASHINGTON TIMES, Aug. 25, 2011, A9. "The pace and scope of China's sustained military investment have allowed China to pursue capabilities that we believe are potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation, and may contribute to regional tensions and anxieties," said Michael Schiffer, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia, in releasing the report at the Pentagon. Robert Willard, (Commander, U.S. Forces, Pacific Command), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, Mar. 26, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2010 from Nexis. China's rapid and comprehensive transformation of its armed forces is affecting regional military balances and holds implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region. Of particular concern is that elements of China's military modernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action in the region.

II. CHINA UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY. A. CHINA UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO LIMIT THE THREAT FROM IRAN. 1. Irans effort to develop nuclear weapons is a major threat to world peace and stability.
David Petraeus, (Commander, U.S. Central Command), UNITED STATES POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN, Hrg., Sen. Armed Services Comm., Apr. 7, 2009, 21. Iran is assessed by many to be continuing its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, which would destabilize the region and likely spur a regional arms race. Iran employs surrogates and violent proxies to weaken competitor states, perpetuate conflict with Israel, gain regional influence, and obstruct the Middle East Peace Process. Iran also uses some of these groups to train and equip militants in direct conflict with U.S. forces.

2. China persistently undermines world sanctions to limit Irans nuclear program.

Quinton Farrar, (J.D. Candidate), FORDHAM LAW REVIEW, Apr. 2011, 2384. While the United States has taken the lead in working with its allies around the world to reduce business ties with Iran, there is an acute concern on Capitol Hill that as countries pull out of Iran, other countries - China in particular will move in to take over the abandoned projects. Quinton Farrar, (J.D. Candidate), FORDHAM LAW REVIEW, Apr. 2011, 2385. The main credibility problem remains with China. Chinese firms have not only signed large development deals with Iran on their own, but they have also back-filled projects abandoned by firms in compliance with the sanctions.

B. CHINA UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO LIMIT THE THREAT FROM NORTH KOREA. 1. North Koreas effort to develop nuclear weapons is a major threat to world peace and stability.
Dennis Blair, (Dir., U.S. National Intelligence), CURRENT AND FUTURE WORLDWIDE THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES, Hrg. Senate Comm. on Armed Services, Mar. 10, 2009, 27. Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and proliferation behavior threaten to destabilize East Asia. The North's October 2006 nuclear test is consistent with our longstanding assessment that it had produced a nuclear device. Prior to the test, we assessed that North Korea produced enough plutonium for at least a half dozen nuclear weapons. Jonathan Pollack, (Prof., Asian and Pacific Studies, Naval War College), COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 264. Should North Korea opt to transfer abroad any of its nuclear technologies, materials, and weapons, the dangers to international peace and security would be exceedingly grave. Additionally, the regional consequences are also highly worrisome. Without nuclear weapons, the latent possibilities of a highly destructive military conflict on the Korean Peninsula remain very high; with nuclear weapons, the potential consequences of renewed conflict for the Republic of Korea (ROK), Japan, and for U.S. forces are incalculably greater.

2. China persistently undermines world sanctions to limit North Koreas nuclear program.
John Bolton, (Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations), THE GLOBE AND MAIL, Dec. 13, 2012, A21. Only Beijing can strong-arm Pyongyang to renounce nuclear weapons or move it toward reunification. China has done neither. In fact, its trade has substantially increased recently, even as South Korea, Japan and others have reduced theirs. China supplies 90 per cent or more of North Koreas energy supplies, and substantial amounts of food and other humanitarian aid. China also facilitates the Norths evasion of international sanctions, and flies political cover for it in the Security Council.

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CON CASE #2: FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION

The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in maintaining the freedom of navigation on the worlds oceans. A substantial share of world trade travels through international waters in the South China Sea. Recent Chinese actions in the South China Sea represent a threat to the freedom of navigation. OBSERVATIONS: I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A NATIONAL INTEREST IN MAINTAINING THE FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION.
Ian Johnson, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 16, 2011, A6. Most dramatically, at a regional meeting in Hanoi in the summer of 2010, Mrs. Clinton emphatically argued that the United States had a vital interest in maintaining open and peaceful sea lanes in the South China Sea. She called for all disputes to be settled in international forums. China's foreign minister stormed out. Administration officials have hewed to Mrs. Clinton's line. ''The South China Sea is a very important maritime common for the entire region'' but also for the United States, Adm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the United States Pacific Command, told reporters traveling with Mr. Obama. The navigation lanes account for $5.3 trillion in bilateral annual trade, of which $1.2 trillion is American, he said. Robert Gates, (U.S. Secretary of Defense), CONFERENCE ON MARITIME SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, June 21, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://csis.org/files/publication/110629_Percival_South_China_Sea.pdf. We have a national interest in the freedom of navigation, in unimpeded economic development and commerce, and respect for international law. Moises Lopes de Souza, (Analyst, Center of China-Latin America Studies at the National Chengchi University, Taipei), THE INTERESTS OF EXTERNAL POWERS IN THE CHINESE LAKE, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.watershed.com.br/article/216/the-interests-of-external-powers-in-the-chinese-lake.aspx. In fact, the Asia-Pacific region and South China Sea area are inextricably linked with the U.S. national interests listed above. The region encompasses some priorities such as: trade, oil business, security interests, security, strategy, and freedom of navigation. With regard to freedom of navigation, it is clear that a conflict could result in serious restrictions. Therefore, when the U.S. claimed its intention to take a more assertive role in solving the South China Sea disputes, it was in fact defending its immediate economic and strategic interests.

II. CHINA IMPROPERLY CLAIMS OWNERSHIP IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A. CHINA CLAIMS ALMOST ALL OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, July 25, 2012, A8. The vagueness of China's claims to islands and energy resources in the sea has rattled other claimants, the new report said. China bases some of its claims in the sea on discoveries by ancient Chinese navigators. More specifically, China lays claim to everything within what is called a nine-dash map drawn shortly after World War II. By some estimates, the nine dashes mark off 80 percent of the South China Sea. The Central Military Commission, China's most powerful military body, has approved the deployment of a garrison of soldiers from the People's Liberation Army to guard disputed islands claimed by China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, the state-run Xinhua news agency said Sunday. Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, June 1, 2012, A10. China argues that freedom of navigation comes into force only 200 nautical miles from a nation's coast, an argument that contravenes the Law of the Sea and, if put into effect, would basically render the South China Sea Beijing's private preserve.

B. CHINESE CLAIMS VIOLATE STANDARD INTERPRETATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW.

Bonnie Glaser, (Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies), ARMED CLASH IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, Apr. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883. The United States has important interests in the peaceful resolution of South China Sea disputes according to international law. With the exception of China, all the claimants of the South China Sea have attempted to justify their claims based on their coastlines and the provisions of UNCLOS [UN Convention on the Law of the Sea]. China, however, relies on a mix of historic rights and legal claims, while remaining deliberately ambiguous about the meaning of the "nine-dashed line" around the sea that is drawn on Chinese maps. Failure to uphold international law and norms could harm U.S. interests elsewhere in the region and beyond. Ensuring freedom of navigation is another critical interest of the United States and other regional states. Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11. China set the direction for what has occurred since 2009 when it began seriously pushing the so-called nine-dash line map, declaring its sovereignty over 80 per cent of the South China Sea. The staking of this almost comically audacious claim has since been augmented by rising numbers of incursions from Chinese fishing boats, often emboldened by the accompanying presence of government surveillance vessels.

21 CONTENTIONS: I. CHINAS RISE HAS EMBOLDENED IT TO CLAIM OWNERSHIP OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A. CHINA HAS BECOME MORE ASSERTIVE AS ITS ECONOMIC POWER HAS INCREASED.
NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 19, 2012, SR-10. Both China and its neighbors bear responsibility for ratcheting up the tension. But there is no question that China's economic power and its assertive use of its navy and commercial vessels to project influence has changed the regional dynamics and worried many of its smaller neighbors. Beijing's ambitions are large: the president of a Chinese research institute, Wu Shicun, told The Times's Jane Perlez that China wanted to control no less than 80 percent of the sea.

B. CHINA PERCEIVES IT NOW HAS THE CLOUT TO CLAIM OWNERSHIP OVER INTERNATIONAL WATERS.
Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11. The ingredients for conflict in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have been in place for some time, but it's only since 2009 that the latest round of spot fires have started. According to [Chris] Rahman [of the University of Woollongong], part of this is simply down to China's rising economic clout and military and paramilitary capabilities. They are becoming more assertive because they can, he says.

II. CHINA IS RESTRICTING THE FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A. CHINA CLAIMS THE RIGHT TO BOARD AND SEIZE VESSELS IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS.
Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Dec. 2, 2012, A4. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said last week that China was within its rights to allow the coast guard to board vessels in the South China Sea. The new rules go into effect on Jan. 1. According to a report in an English-language state-run newspaper, China Daily, the police and coast guard will be allowed to board and seize control of foreign ships that ''illegally enter'' Chinese waters and order them to change course. Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Dec. 2, 2012, A4. New rules announced by a Chinese province last week to allow interceptions of ships in the South China Sea are raising concerns in the region, and in Washington, that simmering disputes with Southeast Asian countries over the waters will escalate. The move by Hainan Province, which administers China's South China Sea claims, is being seen by some outside analysts as another step in the country's bid to solidify its claims to much of the sea, which includes crucial international shipping lanes through which more than a third of global trade is carried. Jemy Gatdula, (Philippines Journalist), BUSINESSWORLD, Dec. 7, 2012, 5. China's government, for some inexplicable reason, is again playing the bully card. Less than a month after declaring its desire of resolving the territorial disputes peacefully among the Asian countries involved, it then pulls a bizarre stunt of legislating a measure that will supposedly authorize its police officers to board and inspect vessels found within the said territories.

B. CHINA INTENDS TO EXCLUDE U.S. NAVAL VESSELS FROM INTERNATIONAL WATERS.

Andrew Krepinevich, (Pres., Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Jul/Aug 2009, 18-33. East Asian waters are slowly but surely becoming another potential no-go zone for U.S. ships, particularly for aircraft carriers, which carry short-range strike aircraft that require them to operate well within the reach of the PLA'S A2/AD systems if they want remain operationally relevant. The large air bases in the region that host the U.S. Air Force's short-range strike aircraft and support aircraft are similarly under increased threat. All thus risk becoming wasting assets. If the United States does not adapt to these emerging challenges, the military balance in Asia will be fundamentally transformed in Beijing's favor. This would increase the danger that China might be encouraged to resolve outstanding regional security issues through coercion, if not aggression.

C. CHINAS NEW POLICY WILL END FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
Harsh Pant, (Prof., Politics, Kings College, London), DNA, Sept. 10, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. When Beijing claimed that it considered its ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea as a "core interest," fears increased in Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia that China is seeking to use its growing maritime might to dominate not only the hydrocarbon-rich waters of the South China Sea but also its crucial shipping lanes, the lifeline of regional economies. Scot Marciel, (Deputy Assistance Secretary of State, East Asia & Pacific Affairs), MARITIME DISPUTES AND SOVEREIGNTY ISSUES IN EAST ASIA, Hrg., Senate Comm. on Foreign Relations, July 15, 2009, 6. The sea-lanes that run through East Asia are some of the world's busiest and most strategically important. They serve as the prime arteries of trade that have fueled the tremendous economic growth of the region and brought prosperity to the U.S. economy as well. Billions of dollars of commerce -- much of Asia's trade with the world, including the United States -- flows annually through those waters. Over half of the world's merchant fleet by tonnage sails through the South China Sea alone each year.

22 III. CHINAS RESTRICTION OF NAVIGATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MAY WELL LEAD TO WAR. A. CHINAS NEW ASSERTIVENESS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED CONFRONTATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS.
Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 12, 2012, A6. The dispute keeps escalating. On July 31, the 85th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army, the Chinese Defense Ministry heralded the occasion by announcing ''a regular combat-readiness patrol system'' for the waters in the sea under China's jurisdiction. The government then said it had launched its newest patrol vessel: a 5,400-ton ship. It was specifically designed to maintain ''marine sovereignty,'' said People's Daily, the Communist Party's leading newspaper. Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, July 24, 2012, A4. On Monday, President Benigno Aquino III of the Philippines said that his country would not back down from its dispute with China, saying in an address that the nation's military would get dozens of new aircraft and ships for defense of the shoal, which Manila identifies as Bajo de Masinloc. There are those who say that we should let Bajo de Masinloc go, Mr. Aquino said, according to The Associated Press. But if someone entered your yard and told you he owned it, would you agree? Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei also have conflicting claims in the South China Sea, making the area a source of a potential military showdown. Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, July 25, 2012, A8. The disputes between China and four of its Southeast Asian neighbors over claims in the South China Sea have become so intense, the prospect of open conflict is becoming more likely, an authoritative new report says. The disputes, enmeshed in the competition for energy resources, have reached an impasse, according to the report, by the International Crisis Group, a research organization that has become a leading authority on the frictions. ''All of the trends are in the wrong direction, and prospects of resolution are diminishing,'' said the report, titled ''Stirring Up the South China Sea: Regional Responses.'' The pessimistic conclusion came a day after China stepped up its political and military control of the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which both Vietnam and the Philippines claim, and the Macclesfield Bank, claimed by the Philippines.

B. CHINA NOW SEEMS INTERESTED IN TESTING THE LIMITS OF AMERICAN RESOLVE.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, June 1, 2012, A10. Superficially, the squabble was over some rare corals, clams and poached sharks that Philippine Navy seamen were trying to retrieve in early April from the fishing boats operating in the Scarborough Shoal of the South China Sea until two Chinese Marine Surveillance craft intervened. After two tense days, the Philippine ship -- a refitted Coast Guard cutter sent by the United States last year to beef up its ally's weak defenses -- withdrew. But the stakes were much larger, as the insistent claims ever since of sovereignty over the shoal by both the Philippine and Chinese governments made clear. The incident intensified longstanding international questions over the strategically critical, potentially energy-rich South China Sea that have become more urgent this year as the long-dominant United States and fast-growing China both seek to increase their naval power in the region. ''We're just pawns,'' said Roberto Romulo, a former foreign secretary of the Philippines who argues that China is flexing its muscles in a bid to gain unimpeded access to vast reserves of natural gas and oil believed to be buried under the South China Sea. ''China is testing the United States, that's all it is. And China is eating America's lunch in Southeast Asia.'' NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 19, 2012, SR-10. China has enlarged its army garrison on a bit of land known as Yongxing Island. Mr. Wu said the aim was to allow Beijing to ''exercise sovereignty over all land features inside the South China Sea,'' including more than 40 islands ''now occupied illegally'' by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. The Obama administration protested that this provocative act risked further inflaming the situation. In return, a leading Chinese newspaper told the United States to ''shut up'' and stop meddling in matters of Chinese sovereignty.

C. CONFRONTATIONS COULD PULL THE UNITED STATES INTO A WAR WITH CHINA.
Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11. The region is on edge over threats of a trade war or military action The US would be obliged to intervene, potentially sparking a war between the era's two great powers. China's great reformer, Deng Xiaoping, said it was beyond the wisdom of his generation to find a solution to the squabble between his country and Japan over the Senkaku Islands. Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11. Events in the South China Sea have been largely overtaken by the latest flare-up in the Senkakus, which experts say is most dangerous, as it pits Asia's two major military powers against each other. And with the Senkaku Islands covered by the US-Japan defence treaty, a Chinese attack on them would mean the US would be obliged to intervene, potentially sparking a war between the era's two great powers. Security strategist Chris Rahman of the University of Wollongong says the Senkakus dispute is the most dangerous because of the strength of the players involved. He warns that there is a likelihood of Australia becoming involved if a conflict develops. You aren't talking about small or weak states that are going to be pushed around, Rahman says. If China were to launch some sort of action against Japan, that would almost certainly bring the US into it.

23

CON CASE #3: CYBERWARFARE

The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in protecting vital systems from acts of cyberwarfare. This case will demonstrate that China is actively preparing to engage in cyberwarfare with the United States. OBSERVATION: I. THE UNTIED STATES HAS A FUNDAMENTAL NATIONAL INTEREST IN PROTECTING ITSELF FROM CYBERWARFARE. A. AMERICAN CONSUMERS ARE VULNERABLE TO CYBERWARFARE.
Report of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, INVESTIGATIVE REPORT ON THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES POSED BY CHINESE TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES, Oct. 8, 2012, 1. The threat posed to U.S. national-security interests by vulnerabilities in the telecommunications supply chain is an increasing priority given: the countrys reliance on interdependent critical infrastructure systems; the range of threats these systems face; the rise in cyber espionage; and the growing dependence all consumers have on a small group of equipment providers. Report of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, INVESTIGATIVE REPORT ON THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES POSED BY CHINESE TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES, Oct. 8, 2012, 1. The risk posed to U.S. national-security and economic interests by cyber-threats is an undeniable priority. First, the countrys reliance on telecommunications infrastructure includes more than consumers use of computer systems. Rather, multiple critical infrastructure systems depend on information transmission through telecommunications systems. These modern critical infrastructures include electric power grids; banking and finance systems; natural gas, oil, and water systems; and rail and shipping channels; each of which depend on computerized control systems. Further, system interdependencies among these critical infrastructures greatly increase the risk that failure in one system will cause failures or disruptions in multiple critical infrastructure systems. Therefore, a disruption in telecommunication networks can have devastating effects on all aspects of modern American living, causing shortages and stoppages that ripple throughout society.

B. THE U.S. MILITARY IS VULNERABLE TO CYBERWARE.

Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. The US, because it's so wired, is more vulnerable than most big powers to this new form of warfare. It's the price the country may one day pay for being an advanced and open society. "If the nation went to war today, in a cyberwar, we would lose," Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence from 2007 to 2009, told a US Senate committee a year ago. "We're the most vulnerable. We're the most connected. We have the most to lose." Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. As well armed as the US is, however, its defenses are porous. The US may have the mightiest military in the world, but it is also the most computerized - everything from smart bombs to avionics to warship controls - making it unusually vulnerable to cyberassault. Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. Unlike many of its potential adversaries, the Pentagon is heavily reliant on computer networks. Over the past two decades, US industry, along with the military and federal agencies, have linked some networks and elements of the nation's infrastructure - power plants, air traffic control systems, rail lines - to the notoriously insecure Internet. It makes it easier, faster, and cheaper to communicate and conduct business - but at a cost. Almost all electrical power used by US military bases, for instance, comes from commercial utilities, and the power grid is a key target of adversaries. "We're pretty vulnerable today," says a former US national security official. "Our defense is superporous against anything sophisticated."

CONTENTION: I. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS PROVIDED THAT NATION WITH THE MEANS TO ENGAGE IN CYBERWARFARE. A. CHINAS ECONOMIC PROWESS FUNDS A SUBSTANTIAL CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITY.
Applied Technology Institute, CYBER WARFARE, Oct. 4, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 2, 2013 from http://www.aticourses. com/blog/index.php/2012/10/04/cyber-weapons-are-they-the-deadliest-means-of-modern-warfare/. Chinese offensive capabilities in cyberspace are more effective than ever and are the subject of interest by the international community which fears the rise of China as a technological colossus. The Pentagon is convinced that China is investing heavily in an effort to improve its cyber stature and ability to conduct offensive operations.

24 B. CHINESE BUSINESS INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S. ENABLE CYBERWARFARE.

Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. If only part of this infiltration turned out to be corporate espionage, that would be bad enough. But there's a more insidious threat lurking underneath. In his book "Cyber War," Richard Clarke, former counterterrorism chief with the National Security Council, writes that foreign nations are "preparing the battlefield" in key US industries and military networks, in part by creating "trapdoors" in electronic industrial-control systems. These trapdoors, in the form of nearly invisible software "rootkits," are designed to give the attacker access and control over industries' computer networks, which could later be used to disrupt or destroy operations - for instance, of the US power grid.

C. U.S. MILITARY USE OF CHINESE ELECTRONICS ENABLES CYBERWARFARE.

Reuters News Service, DEFENSE WEB, Mar. 9, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2012 from Nexis. The military's close ties to large Chinese telecommunications firms create a path for state-sponsored penetrations of supply networks for electronics used by the U.S. military, government and private industry, the report added. That has the potential to cause a "catastrophic failure of systems and networks supporting critical infrastructure for national security or public safety," according to the study. On the military side, "Chinese capabilities in computer network operations have advanced sufficiently to pose genuine risk to U.S. military operations in the event of a conflict," it said.

II. CHINA HAS DEMONSTRATED ITS WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE IN CYBERWARFARE. A. CHINESE MILITARY DOCTRINE CALLS FOR THE USE OF CYBERWARFARE.
Bill Gertz, (Staff), WASHINGTON TIMES, Aug. 25, 2011, A9. China's cyberwarfare capabilities likely would serve future military operations by gathering intelligence, constraining enemy action or slowing their response, and bolstering conventional attacks during a crisis or conflict. Chinese military writings state that China plans to use its cyberwarfare weapons to achieve information superiority and to counter a stronger foe.

B. CHINESE STRATEGY WILL ATTACK CIVILIAN SECTORS AS A WAY OF CRIPPLING THE U.S. MILITARY.
South China Morning Post, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Aug. 1, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. China's guerilla attacks would avoid defense strongholds such as military command centres. Instead, it would target civilian sectors such as the power grid, financial system, international trade, transport and even hospitals to cause the greatest damage, given that more than 95 per cent of the US military's network is connected to the internet.

C. CHINA IS USING ITS ACCESS TO THE U.S. ECONOMY TO PREPARE FOR CYBERWARFARE.
Reuters News Service, DEFENSE WEB, Mar. 9, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2012 from Nexis. Chinese cyberwarfare would pose a genuine risk to the U.S. military in a conflict, for instance over Taiwan or disputes in the South China Sea, according to report for the U.S. Congress. Operations against computer networks have become fundamental to Beijing's military and national development strategies over the past decade, said the 136-page analysis by Northrop Grumman Corp. It was released on Thursday by the congressionally created U.S.China Economic and Security Review Commission. The report, based on publicly available information, said Chinese commercial firms, bolstered by foreign partners, are giving the military access to cutting-edge research and technology, Reuters reports. Anna Mulrine, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, May 18, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. A report released last year by the US intelligence agencies called China's cyberespionage a "persistent threat to US economic security." Two US House members went further: "Every morning in China, thousands of highly trained computer spies now wake up with one mission: Steal U.S. intellectual property that the Chinese can use to further their economic growth," Reps. Mike Rogers (R) of Michigan and C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) of Maryland, chairman and ranking member, respectively, of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, wrote in an op-ed article last month. "American companies are hemorrhaging research and development on products ranging from fighter engines, to pesticides, to cutting-edge information technology." Report of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, INVESTIGATIVE REPORT ON THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES POSED BY CHINESE TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES, Oct. 8, 2012, 3. The capacity to maliciously modify or steal information from government and corporate entities provides China access to expensive and time-consuming research and development that advances Chinas economic place in the world. Access to U.S. telecommunications infrastructure also allows China to engage in undetected espionage against the United States government and private sector interests. Chinas military and intelligence services, recognizing the technological superiority of the U.S. military, are actively searching for asymmetrical advantages that could be exploited in any future conflict with the United States. Inserting malicious hardware or software implants into Chinese-manufactured telecommunications components and systems headed for U.S. customers could allow Beijing to shut down or degrade critical national security systems in a time of crisis or war. Malicious implants in the components of critical infrastructure, such as power grids or financial networks, would also be a tremendous weapon in Chinas arsenal.

25

CON CASE #4: UNFAIR ECONOMIC PRACTICES

The thesis of this case is that the United States has a national interest in sustaining the strength of its economy. The rise of China undermines this interest as manufacturing jobs are lost, companies are subjected to unfair trading practices, and the value of the dollar is threatened. I. THE RISE OF CHINA UNDERMINES THE STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. A. THE RISE OF CHINA HARMS U.S. WORKERS.
Robert Scott, (Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research, Economic Policy Institute), THE CHINA TOLL, Aug. 23, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.epi.org/publication/bp345-china-growing-trade-deficit-cost/. Since China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, the extraordinary growth of trade between China and the United States has had a dramatic effect on U.S. workers and the domestic economy, though in neither case has this effect been beneficial. The United States is piling up foreign debt and losing export capacity, and the growing trade deficit with China has been a prime contributor to the crisis in U.S. manufacturing employment. Between 2001 and 2011, the trade deficit with China eliminated or displaced more than 2.7 million U.S. jobs, over 2.1 million of which (76.9 percent) were in manufacturing. These lost manufacturing jobs account for more than half of all U.S. manufacturing jobs lost or displaced between 2001 and 2011.

B. CHINA SYSTEMATICALLY ENGAGES IN UNFAIR TRADING PRACTICES.

Peter Navarro, (Prof., Business, U. California at Irvine), LOS ANGELES TIMES, June 21, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/21/opinion/la-oe-navarro-trade-china-20110621. The most potent of China's "weapons of job destruction" are an elaborate web of export subsidies; the blatant piracy of America's technologies and trade secrets; the counterfeiting of valuable brand names like Nike and Chevy; a cleverly manipulated and grossly undervalued currency; and the forced transfer of the technology of any American company wishing to operate on Chinese soil or sell into the Chinese market. Each of these unfair trade practices is expressly prohibited both by World Trade Organization rules as well as rules established by the U.S. government Brett Decker, (Staff, Wall Street Journal), THE WASHINGTON TIMES, Nov. 15, 2011, B1. Even devout free-traders agree that a working system of free trade depends on a regime of rules that prohibits uncompetitive national practices that prop up or unduly support domestic industries. A May 2011 editorial in the New York Times offers a critique of Beijing practices with which almost anyone on the ideological spectrum can agree. "The list of complaints is long: 80 percent of the computer software in China is counterfeit. Beijing just published a new investment catalog that keeps a long list of industries off limits for American firms," the old Gray Lady protested. "It changed the investment vetting process to allow Chinese companies to recommend barring acquisitions by foreign rivals. It has done nothing to reduce the enormous subsidies in the form of cheap credit to favored state-owned firms." The catalog of Beijing's sins goes on and on, but the point is that the People's Republic can essentially do what it wants and it gets away with it.

C. CHINA UNFAIRLY MANIPULATES THE VALUE OF ITS CURRENCY.

AFL-CIO, LEGISLATIVE GUIDE, 2011, 8.2. Chinas exchange-rate policy has contributed significantly to our bilateral trade deficit, which increased from $84 billion in 2001 to $252 billion in 2010 (that does not include December 2010, so will be revised upward), setting a new, record bilateral trade deficit. Economists across the political spectrum agree China is actively manipulating its currency. Some economists suggest the manipulated currency provides an effective export subsidy of at least 30 percent.

D. CHINA INTENDS TO REPLACE THE DOLLAR AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY WITH THE YUAN.
THE NATION, Dec. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. China is keen to promote its yuan as the international reserve currency of choice. It has signed several bilateral currency swap agreements with other countries to promote the use of the yuan. This would circumvent the use of the US dollar as the medium of international transactions. Certainly, Washington is watching this development with a sense of alarm. Any challenge to the dollar's supremacy would erode US military might, which has been financed largely by dollar debt creation. China is waiting for the right timing to float the yuan outright so that it can become a global reserve currency to compete against the dollar, the euro and the yen. Right now it is preparing the infrastructure to make this arrangement possible, using Hong Kong as a financial centre for the yuan trade. Arvind Subramanian, (Sr. Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics), NEWSWEEK, Dec. 19, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis. Having the dollar as the world's premier reserve currency is an advantage for American traders and financiers because the fact of paying and being paid in dollars shields them from having to bear any risk of currency values changing. And it is an "exorbitant privilege" for the American government, which can raise money and finance its deficits more cheaply than otherwise because foreigners want to hold the dollar as an asset. It is, above all, a symbol of American dominance.