526

section

Suppr-v aNo DnMANo Pr-aNNrNc

30

The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:

YEAR
2002
2003

CAsEs oF MERLoT WINE

YF.AR Clsrs or MBnlor Wmr

270
356 398

2004
2005

456

2006 2007 2008 2009

358

500 4]0
376

Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2009. Use the average demand for 2002 through 2004 as your initial forecast, then smooth the forecast forward to 2009'

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: Alrnvox ElrcrRoNtcs
qf .***ffi rH,-,-@**R*,,@'

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Altavox'rs a manufacturer and distributor of many different electronic instruments and devices, including digitaVanalog multimeters, function generators, oscilloscopes, frequency counters, and other test and measuring equipment. Altavox sells a line of test

this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand' Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the
following table.
spreadsheet Altavox Dataa high of 40 units on between varies The demand in the regions Dallas. This quarter's in 48 units and in Atlanta per week average data are pretty close to the demand last quarter. Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system being implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing'

These data are contained

in an Excel

meters that are popular with professional electricians. The model YC2OZis sold through five distributors to retail stores in the United States. These distributors are located in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, and Los Angeles and have been selected to serve different regions in the country. The model VC2O2 has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Altavox does not consider
WEEK

7
33

Atlanta Boston
Chicago
DaItas LA

10

44
1a
32

Total

162

45 35 34 42 43 199

37 41 22 35 54 189

38 40 55 40 40 213

55 46 48 51 46 246

30 48
72

18

55

a
70

64
74

40
245

288

8 58 18 28 65 35 204

9 47 62 27 55 45 236

10 11 12 13 AvERAGE 40 37 23 55 40 42 44 30 45 50 47 95 35 45 47 48 43 38 47 42 46 38 48 56 50 257 174 748 229 222

QuesrloNs
I
Excel:

Consider using

a simple moving average

Altavox Data

model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks'past data. The past data in each region is given below (week - 1 is the week before week I in the table, -2 is two weeks before week l, etc.). Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks for each distributor using the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.

Next, consider using a simple exponential smoothing mod' In your analysis, test two alpha values, .2 and .4' Use tb same criteria for evaluating the model as in question L Assume that the initial previous forecast for the model usxtB an alpha value of.2 is the past three-week average' Forth model using an alpha of .4, assume that the previous is the past five-week average. Altavox is considering a new option for distriburing model VC202 where, instead of using five distributors, a single distributor would be used. Evaluate this optim arralyzing how accurate the forecast would be based m demand aggregated across all regions' Use the model you think is best from your analysis of questions I ad'

-5

-4
38
18

-l

-2
58

-1
1t
35

Atlanta 45 Boston 62 Chicago 62 Dallas 42 43 LA Total 254 f!

30 48
72

40
44 64 46 752

What are the advantages and disadvantages of demand from a forecasting view? Are there other thinp should be considered when going from multiple
to a single distributor?

22
35

48
43 35
198

40
54

40
153

744

f I t