Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 28, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 28, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German Retail sales increased by 0.4 percent in February. United Kingdom HPI remained flat in the March. European markets are trading on the flat note to marginally lower on the back of worries over Europe debt crisis coupled with unfavourable economic data from Germany. Asian markets ended on negative note. US stock futures are trading in red. German Retail sales increased by 0.4 percent in February as compared to rise of 3.0 percent in January. United Kingdom House Price Index (HPI) remained flat in the March as compared to rise of 0.2 percent in February. German Unemployment change increased to 13,000 in February. Spot gold prices increased by 0.05 percent today on the back of the worries over rise in Europe debt crisis leading to rise in demand for safe haven. Further, expectation of unfavourable jobless claim data from US coupled with weakness in DX supported prices to trade positive. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian rupee added downside pressure on the prices. . Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weakness in DX, Spot silver prices increased by 0.14 percent today. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavourable economic data from germany capped sharp gains in prices. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Indian rupee exerted downside pressure on the prices. The base metals pack traded on a negative note today on the back of worries over European debt crisis coupled with political uncertainty in Italy. Further, expectation of negative jobless claims data coupled with unfavourable economic data from Germany added downside pressure. However, weakness in DX cushioned sharp decline in prices. In the Indian markets, base metals remained under pressure on the back of appreciation in the rupee. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined by 0.42 percent today as a result of rise in LME Copper inventories by 0.3 percent which stood at 569,775 tonnes. Further worries over Europe debt crisis and weak global market sentiments added downside pressure. However, weakness in the DX coupled with worries over disprution in supplies due to strike in Chilean port cushioned sharp downfall in prices. On MCX, appreciation in the Indian rupee exerted downside pressure on the prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.17 percent today as the US government data showed that US refineries increased their operating rates coupled with weakness in DX. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with rise in crude oil inventories in the yesterdays trade capped sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian, market appreciation in the Indian rupee capped sharp upside in the prices. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 28 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5647.75 18702.46 12457.13 1989.70 15307.44

5692.95 18882.54 12462.86 1995.31 15477.92

5604.85 18568.43 12286.37 1985.45 15243.45

5682.55 18835.77 12335.96 1993.52 15243.45

0.73 0.70 -1.26 0.00 0.66

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 28 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.42 1.2778 54.38

83.46 1.2814 54.47

83.225 1.2754 54.28

83.285 1.2799 54.345

-0.15 0.15 -0.14

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 28 March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1605.19 1604.70 29600.00 28.63 28.23 54036 96.68 109.85 5267 7640.00 416.60 1918.00 102.20 2132 114.60 16875 914.20 1924.00 103.00

1607.31 1606.60 29604.0 28.82 28.72 54036 96.94 110.10 5276 7656.25 416.60 1922.00 102.40 2140 114.70 16875 914.20 1928.00 103.20

1601.59 1601.60 29515.0 28.62 28.665 53845 96.45 109.34 5253 7577.00 414.50 1875.00 101.00 2102 113.20 16735 907.40 1902.00 101.80

1601.99 1602.80 29632.00 28.67 28.665 54062 96.74 109.86 5261 7608.25 417.40 1897.50 102.60 2117 114.80 16790 916.60 1911.00 103.05

0.05 -0.21 -0.31 0.14 0.31 -0.31 0.17 0.15 0.25 -0.42 -0.37 -1.06 -0.37 -0.74 -0.73 -0.53 -0.54 -0.57 -0.52

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 28, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal, base metal and crude oil prices to trade on the negative note on the back of worries that the Cyprus bank restructuring may be used as a model for other European nations which may endanger bondholders and depositors. Further, unfavourable economic data from germany and expectation of unfavourable economic data from US will add downside pressure. However, weakness in DX may prevent sharp downfall in prices. .

Technical Outook for evening session 28 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 00Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas April13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29403 1594 53402 28.30 5922 5231 95.9 217 7540 412.2 102 114 103 910 Support 1 29494 1601 53792 28.6 5955 5249 96.35 218.9 7575 414.4 102.65 114.6 103.5 915 CMP 29532 1602.6 53885 28.67 5975 5152 96.77 220.5 7608 415.95 103.35 115.35 104.2 919.5 Resistance1 29637 1612 54195 28.91 6010 5280 97.15 225.4 7670 418.3 104.3 116.3 105 925.3 Resistance 2 29715 1618 54624 29.24 6042 5297 97.6 228 7700 419.2 105.1 117.3 105.6 932.8

Important Events for Today

Indicator Retail Sales y/y German Retail Sales m/m Nationwide HPI m/m German Unemployment Change M3 Money Supply y/y Unemployment Claims Final GDP q/q Chicago PMI Country Japan Europe UK Europe Europe US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 12:30pm 12:30pm 2:25pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:15pm Actual -2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 13K 3.1% Forecast 0.9% -0.5% 0.2% -2K 3.2% 340K 0.5% 56.5 Previous -1.1% 3.0% 0.2% -3K 3.5% 336K 0.1% 56.8 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium