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1) The prosecutor argues that if the defendant is innocent, the probability he matches the eyewitness description is very small, so he must be guilty.
2) However, this commits the prosecutor's fallacy by misunderstanding conditional probability.
3) The correct calculation is the probability of innocence given a match to the description, not the other way around. With the given numbers, this probability is 90%, suggesting the defendant is likely innocent.
1) The prosecutor argues that if the defendant is innocent, the probability he matches the eyewitness description is very small, so he must be guilty.
2) However, this commits the prosecut…