Commodities Evening Update

Monday | April 1, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | April 1, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open High

European and UK markets closed today on eve of Easter Monday. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 52-mark in March. US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.07 percent in todays trade. European and UK markets closed today on eve of Easter Monday. Asian equities ended on a negative note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined by 2.2 points to 52-mark in March as against a rise of 54.2level in February. Spot gold prices increased by 0.04 percent on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in safe haven demand from the investors. Weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) also acted as a positive factor for the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1600.81/oz and was trading at $1598.20/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets prices gained by 0.3 percent in todays trading session. Taking cues from weak global market sentiments, Spot silver prices declined by 0.99 percent today. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX coupled with rise in the gold prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $27.87/oz and hovered around $28.04/oz till 4:30pm IST today. On the domestic front, prices declined by percent today. The base metals pack saw a very less movement in the Indian markets as LME markets are closed today on account of Easter Monday holiday. Prices have fallen on domestic front as a result of slow increase in manufacturing data from China. Additionally, decline in HSBC manufacturing data also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals complex declined by 0.89 percent in the Indian markets. Prices dropped on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavorable economic data from China. The red metal touched an intra-day low of Rs.405.10/kg and hovered around Rs.406.55/kg today till 4:30pm IST. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.55 percent as investors book profits at higher levels. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of rise in Chinas manufacturing data which led to expectations of rise in demand for fuel. Weakness in the DX also prevented further fall in the prices. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 2.06 percent today till 4:30pm IST.

as at 4.30 pm 1 April 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5697.35 18890.81 12371.34 2009.94 15307.44

5720.95 18959.48 12384.83 2010.15 15545.70

5675.90 18796.60 12133.00 1994.54 15243.45

5704.40 18864.75 12135.02 1995.99 15243.45

0.38 0.15 -2.12 -0.44 -0.10

Source: Reuters

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 1 April 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.18 1.2804 54.26

83.37 1.2826 54.26

83.05 1.277 54.16

83.115 1.2818 54.16

-0.07 0.00 -0.22

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 1 April 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex May 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil April 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - April13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX April13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX April13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX April13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1597.24 1596.80 29452.00 28.25 28.23 53205 97.36 110.15 5392 7640.00 410.25 1918.00 102.60 2132 114.10 16875 910.00 1924.00 103.50

1600.81 1600.30 29498.0 28.38 28.72 53251 97.80 110.20 5392 7656.25 410.30 1922.00 102.80 2140 115.30 16875 912.00 1928.00 103.80

1594.49 1594.80 29362.0 27.87 28.295 52601 96.60 109.38 5285 7522.00 405.10 1875.00 102.10 2093 113.90 16580 906.10 1901.00 103.10

1598.20 1598.00 29481.00 28.04 28.292 52933 96.70 109.69 5289 7533.25 406.55 1896.00 102.55 2107 114.35 16688 909.40 1903.00 103.65

0.04 0.20 0.30 -0.99 -1.00 -0.26 -0.55 -0.30 -2.06 -1.40 -0.89 -1.13 -0.34 -1.21 -0.44 -1.14 -0.23 -0.99 0.00

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | April 1, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note as a result of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in safe haven demand from investors. Weakness in the DX will support an upside in the prices. Base metals and crude oil prices are expected to trade lower on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavorable economic data from Japan and China. Further, US ISM manufacturing PMi data is expected to come on a negative note and if it comes as forecasted can exert more pressure on the prices or even reversal.

Technical Outook for evening session 1 April 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude April13 Crude Oil April13 Nymex Crude Oil May13 Natural Gas April13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc April13 Lead April13 Aluminum April13 Nickel April13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29819 1582 52281 27.62 5971 5243 95.85 214.7 400 101.3 112.7 102.1 894 Support 1 29897 1588 52606 27.87 5989 5281 96.54 216.9 405 102.1 113.8 102.9 903 CMP 30016 1597.8 52879 28.08 5994 5293 96.74 218.2 406.1 102.35 114.2 103.5 908.6 Resistance1 30104 1602 53280 28.39 6030 5340 97.6 221.9 411.8 103.1 115.4 104.3 916 Resistance 2 30195 1609 53700 28.71 6056 5367 98.1 223.2 415 103.6 116.4 105 924

Important Events for Today

Indicator Tankan Manufacturing Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Manufacturing PMI HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI French Bank Holiday German Bank Holiday Italian Bank Holiday Bank Holiday ISM Manufacturing PMI Country Japan Japan China China Euro Euro Euro UK US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am 6:30am 7:15am All Day All Day All Day All Day 7:30pm Actual -8 6 50.9 51.6 Forecast -7 8 51.6 51.7 54.2 Previous -12 4 50.1 51.7 54.2 Impact Medium Medium High Medium High