Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast

March 8, 2013
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Agenda
Forecast overview and model structure Key assumptions
Demographic factors Economic trends

Forecast process and new models

Current housing, jobs, population, and sq. ft. Local land plans & policies Market conditions Local review

Historical data Current demographics National forecast Demographic trends Expert review

Regionwide Forecast (DEFM)

Subregional Forecast (PECAS and PD)

Detailed Demographic Forecast (PASEF and PopSyn)

Transportation Model (ABM)

2050 California Projections

14 12

-12%

2050 Population (000s)

10 8 6

Statewide (-15%) : 2007 California forecast = 59.5 million 2013 California forecast = 50.4 million

-17%
4

-19% - 5%

-12%

2 0

-16%

6%

4 County 2007 CA DOF forecast 2013 CA DOF forecast

2050 California Growth By County

San Joaquin Valley: 25 percent of new growth Nearly 50 percent of new growth in Southern California 6 percent of new growth in San Diego
Change in Total Population: 2010 - 2050 Declining Population Less Than 25 Percent 25 Percent to 50 Percent 50 Percent to 100 Percent Greater than 100 Percent

5
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (County): State and County Total Population Projections, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, January 2013.

History of Forecasting: Model Accuracy

4,000,000 First Series: Last Series: 3,500,000 3,000,000 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 10 4 11 7 12

San Diego Population

2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Actual Population

Note: Boxes represents range of forecast predictions. For example, SANDAG has provided a projection for 2005 since Series 4 through Series 11. The lowest projection was 2.8 million. The highest projection was 3.3 million. The average projection was just over 3 million. The actual population in 2005 was just over 3 million as well.

Result

Population, Jobs, and Housing

4,500,000

4,000,000
3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000

2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units

4,068,759

Population Jobs Housing 1,911,404

1,491,189 1,000,000

500,000
0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Result

Components of Change
80,000 60,000 40,000
San Diego Population

20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 1970

1980 Births

1990 Deaths

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Domestic Migrants

International Migrants

Annual Rate of Change 0.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Pop Change

Population: Rate of Change

Pop Change 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Assumption

Fertility Rates
4.0 3.5 3.0 Total Fertility Rate 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1980* 1990 2000 2010 2015 2050

0.0 Hispanic White Black Amer. Indian Asian Haw. & Pac. Isl. Other 2 or More

Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1980 data is U.S. rate from CDC) Projection assumption: Return to pre-recession (2006) birth rates by 2015. White rate constant 2015-50, other rates converge by 40% to white rate by 2050.

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Assumption

Life Expectancy
100

90
80 Life Expectancy (Years)

70
60

50
40 30 20 10 0 Hispanic Male White Male Black Male Asian Male 1990* 2010 Hispanic Female 2050 2050-US White Female Black Female Asian Female

Updated to reflect 2012 projections from U.S. Census Bureau

Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1990 data for Asian reflects a composite of all Asian/other records) Projection assumption: Life expectancies updated to reflect 2012 Census projections (except where San Diego base year and future assumptions were higher than national average)

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Assumption

Distribution of International Migrants

Other Races, 2% 2 or More Races, 2%

International Migrants 46% male 54% female

Asian, 25%

Hispanic, 49%

Black, 5% White, 17%

Historical source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey and 2011 American Community Survey persons Foreign born; Entered 2000 or later Projection assumption: Held constant.

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Assumption

Domestic Migration Patterns

Destination County
Riverside (CA)
Los Angeles (CA) Orange (CA)

Estimated Outflow
14,673
11,234 6,926

Origin County
Los Angeles (CA) Orange (CA)

Estimated Inflow
16,330 9,321

Riverside (CA)
San Bernardino (CA) Maricopa (AZ) Santa Clara (CA) Clark (NV) Honolulu (HI) Ventura (CA)

8,709
4,203 4,156 3,640 2,200 2,167 2,137

Maricopa (AZ)
San Bernardino (CA)

6,693
3,870

Clark (NV)
San Francisco (CA) Alameda (CA)

2,420
2,313 2,246

Pima (AZ)
Santa Clara (CA)

2,164
2,101

Imperial (CA)

1,874

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Source: American Community Survey, 2005-2009

San Diego Region Age Structure 2010 and 2050

5 Year Age Group

85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 200,000

Male

Female
Male 2010 Female 2010 Male 2050 Female 2050

100,000

0
Population

100,000

200,000

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Result

Race/Ethnicity
Other Races 1% Asian 11%

2 or More Races 3%

2 or More 4% Other <1% Asian 16%

Black 5%

Hispan Hispanic ic 32% 32%

Hispanic Hispan ic46% 46%

White 48%

Black 4%

White 30%

2010

2050

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Assumption

Key Economic Assumptions

Housing Market Job Market
Labor force participation Unemployment Job growth

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Result

Annual Change Households & Units

Change in Households/Units 50,000

40,000

Unit Change from Prior Year

Household Change from Prior Year

30,000

20,000

10,000

-10,000 1970 -20,000

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

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Comparison/Result

U.S. and San Diego Vacancy Rate

Vacancy Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% San Diego 2% 0% 1970

United States

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

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Result

Median Home Price

Median Home Price (000s) $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 1970 Median Home Price (nominal) Median Home Price (adj 2010$)

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

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Input/Result

U.S. and San Diego Job Growth

Job Growth Rate 12% 10% SD - Growth Jobs 8% 6% US - Growth Jobs

4%
2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Historical source: California Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Projection assumption: Job growth is the sum of individual industry sector projections

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U.S. and San Diego Unemployment

Unemployment Rate 12% SD Unemployment Rate US Unemployment Rate 8% 10%

6%

4%

2%

0% 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Historical source: California Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Projection assumption: Net result of labor force and employed residents

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Result

Distribution of Jobs by Industry

Percent of Total Jobs 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1990 2035 2010 2050

Historical source: QCEW California Employment Development Dept. (annual average) Projection assumption: Each industrys jobs forecast is driven by US job growth by industry and a local market index

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Result

Population, Jobs, and Housing

4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,491,189 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970

2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units

4,068,759

Population Jobs Housing 1,911,404

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

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Schedule and next steps

March 2013

Complete collection and review of land use inputs

April 2013

Sub-regional forecast runs Preliminary sub-regional forecast results for TWG review

May June 2013

Adjustments / updates from TWG / Local Jurisdictions

Summer 2013

Draft sub-regional forecast to Stakeholders and Board

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Result

Population, Jobs, and Housing

4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,491,189 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970

2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units

4,068,759

Population Jobs Housing 1,911,404

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

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