Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Training Course in
Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers
1
Power System Analysis 101 3
2
Power System Analysis 101 5
Bus2
I23 , Loss23 = ? Bus3
Bus1 I12 , Loss12 = ?
V3 = ?
Utility P3 , Q3 = ?
I24 , Loss24 = ? V4 = ?
Grid P4 , Q4 = ?
V1 = 67 kV Bus4
P1 , Q1 = ? V2 = ? Lumped Load A
P2 , Q2 = ? 2 MVA 85%PF
Lumped Load B
1 MVA 85%PF
3
Power System Analysis 101 7
4
Power System Analysis 101 9
5
Power System Analysis 101 11
Utility Grid or
Substation Transmission Generator
Transformer Line
G
Bus
Distribution
Transformer
Distribution
Line
Load Flow mathematically
determines the Voltages,
Currents, Power and Losses
Load
Basic Information
From a Load Flow Study
Voltage Profile
Injected Power (Pp and Qp)
Line Currents (Ipq and Ipq)
Power Flows (Ppq and Qpq)
Line Losses (I2R and I2X)
6
Power System Analysis 101 13
Other Information
From a Load Flow Study
Overvoltage and Undervoltage Buses
Critical and Overloaded Transformers
and Lines
Total System Losses
7
Power System Analysis 101 15
8
Power System Analysis 101 17
9
Power System Analysis 101 19
10
Power System Analysis 101 21
11
Power System Analysis 101 23
Components of Distribution
System Losses
The Philippine Distribution Code (PDC)
mandates system losses to be segregated into
the following components:
a. Technical Loss;
b. Non-Technical Loss; and
c. Administrative Loss.
12
Power System Analysis 101 25
Administrative
+ Technical Loss + Non-Technical Loss
Loss
Bundled Technical & Non-Technical Losses
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Components of Distribution
System Losses
Administrative Losses
The electric energy used by the Distribution
Utility in the proper operation of the Distribution
System.
a. Distribution Substations;
b. Offices, warehouses and workshops of the DU; and
c. Other essential electrical loads of the Distribution
Utility.
13
Power System Analysis 101 27
Components of Distribution
System Losses
Technical Losses
Load and no-load losses in:
a. Sub-transmission lines and substation
transformers;
b. Primary distribution lines and distribution
transformers;
c. Secondary distribution lines and service drops;
d. Voltage regulators, Capacitors and reactors; and
e. All other electrical equipment necessary for the
operation of the distribution system.
Components of Distribution
System Losses
Non-Technical Losses
The component that is not related to the physical
characteristics and functions of the electrical
system, and is caused primarily by human error,
whether intentional or not.
14
Power System Analysis 101 29
Total DSL
= Σ[Energy delivered by the Transmission System]
+ Σ[Energy delivered by Embedded Generating Plants]
+ Σ[Energy delivered by Other Distribution Systems]
+ Σ[Energy delivered by User Systems with
Generating Units]
- Σ[Energy delivered to the Users of the Distribution
System]
Technical Non-Technical
+
Losses Losses
-
Shall be quantified
Technical through 3-Phase
Losses (Unbalanced) Load
Flow Simulations
=
Residual after
subtracting Non-Technical
Administrative &
Technical Losses from Losses
the Total Distribution
System Losses
15
Power System Analysis 101 31
Substation
Transformer Primary Distribution Lines
(Laterals)
Three-Phase Unbalanced
Load Flow Simulations Misc Loads
a)Sub-transmission Lines
b)Substation Power Transformers Secondary Distribution Lines
c)Primary Distribution Lines Service
d)Distribution TransformersDistribution Drop
Transformer
e)Secondary Distribution Lines
f) Service Drops Residential Commercial Industrial
g)Voltage Regulators
h)Capacitors Load Losses and
i) Reactors No-Load (Fixed) Losses
j) Other electrical equipment
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
16
Power System Analysis 101 33
17
Power System Analysis 101 35
DSL Segregation
Distribution
System Loss
Segregation Segregated
Program Technical
Distribution System Data Loss
(3-phase Load Flow) (Billing Period)
Distribution Reliability
Assessment
Metering
Customer Energy Bill Equipment
Metering Equipment Loss
Inventory
18
Power System Analysis 101 37
IA Ia
A Impedance/ a
IB Admittance Ib
Distribution B parameters of b
System IC Distribution Ic
C System Element c
Element
VA VB VC Vc Vb Va
Ground (Reference Node)
300
250
Demand (W)
200
1
NormalizedDemand(per unit)
0
0.2
0
Time (24 hours)
Customer Energy Bill
Converted to Hourly Power
Normalized Customer Load
Demand
Curve
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
19
Power System Analysis 101 39
Data Requirements
ERC-DSL-01 Administrative Load Data
ERC-DSL-02 Customer Data
ERC-DSL-03 Billing Cycle Data
ERC-DSL-04 Customer Energy Consumption Data
ERC-DSL-05 Load Curve Data
ERC-DSL-06 Bus Data
ERC-DSL-07 Subtransmission Line Data - Overhead
ERC-DSL-08 Subtransmission Line Data - Underground/Submarine Cable
ERC-DSL-09 Substation Power Transformer Data - Two Winding
ERC-DSL-10 Substation Power Transformer Data - Three Winding
ERC-DSL-11 Primary Distribution Line Data - Overhead
ERC-DSL-12 Primary Distribution Line Data - Underground Cable
ERC-DSL-13 Primary Customer Service Drop Data - Overhead
ERC-DSL-14 Primary Customer Service Drop Data - Underground Cable
ERC-DSL-15 Distribution Transformer Data
ERC-DSL-16 Secondary Distribution Line Data
ERC-DSL-17 Secondary Customer Service Drop Data
ERC-DSL-18 Voltage Regulator Data
ERC-DSL-19 Shunt Capacitor Data
ERC-DSL-20 Shunt Inductor Data
ERC-DSL-21 Series Inductor Data
Total Cost
Cost
System Loss
Reduction
Unrecovered Program Cost
Energy Cost
20
Power System Analysis 101 41
NON-TECHNICAL LOSS
REDUCTION PROGRAM
TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL
ANALYSIS
Technical
Loss, Non-
TEST YEAR SEGREGATED
52.76% Technical
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LOSSES Loss,
46.74%
Administrative
Loss, 0.50%
Loss Kwhr %
Administrative 167, 791 0.0594%
Technical 18,181,059 6.3153%
Non-Technical 15,487,726 5.5951%
TOTAL 33,836,577 11.9698%
21
Power System Analysis 101 43
Segregation Administrative
Loss
0.3998%
13.2KV SYSTEM
23KV SYSTEM
SEGREGATED
SYSTEM 23 KV
LOSSES System
Administrative 0.0393%
Loss
22
Power System Analysis 101 45
23
Power System Analysis 101 47
Administrative
Loss 62,768.60 105,022.54 167,791.14 0.3998% 0.0393% 0.0594%
Non-Technical
Loss 1,164,538.99 14,651,941.84 15,816,480.83 7.4183% 5.4879% 5.5951%
24
Power System Analysis 101 49
13.2 KV
TECHNICAL LOSSES 13.2 KV System 23 KV System Total System 23 KV System Total
Power Xformer Load Loss 5,232 161,467 166,700 0.0333% 0.0605% 0.0590%
Non
Total Administrativ
Energy Input Technical Loss Technical
YEAR System e Loss
(KWH) (%) Loss
Losses (%) (%)
(%)
2006
313,577,324 12.1222% 0.0621% 6.4611% 5.5951%
2007
341,755,055 12.2757% 0.0583% 6.6187% 5.5951%
2008
372,339,284 12.3994% 0.0535% 6.7477% 5.5951%
2009
405,588,445 12.5074% 0.0491% 6.8604% 5.5951%
2010
442,271,657 12.7071% 0.0493% 7.0604% 5.5951%
25
Power System Analysis 101 51
26
Power System Analysis 101 53
Metering Metering
Connection Connection Metering Non-
Pt. Admin Non-Technical Connection Pt. Technical Technical
Loss Loss Technical Loss Loss Loss Admin Loss Loss Loss
27
Power System Analysis 101 55
PRIORITY RANKING IN TERMS OF SELECTED NTL ACTIVITES FOR IMPLEMENTATION
COMMUNAL TRANSFORMER BLOCK METERING INSPECTION, APPREHENSION, CALIBRATION
Average Rank Metering Connection Metering Connection
KWHR NTL / NO. OF DT's RANK KWHR NTL / NO. OF METERS RANK
FEEDER COVERAGE
Single Feeder Metering Points
Multi-Feeder Metering Connection Points
Lamut
Asin Mini-Hyrdo
NSC New 20MVA
Feeder 1
Atok Bakun Mini-hydro
Feeder 7
Feeder 2
Circuit 1 Ampuhaw Mini-hydro
Feeder 8
Irisan
Circuit 2 Ambuclao
Feeder 9
Feeder 3
Circuit 3 NPC-Itogon
Feeder 10
Feeder 4
Mankayan LUELCO
NPC-Beckel
NSC Old 20MVA
Circuit 4
Totalizer 1 Power System Engineering
FeederU.
5 P. National Engineering
Center
Circuit 5
FeederNational
6 Electrification
TotalizerAdministration
2 for Non-Engineers
NOTE:
Project Cost for implementation per Metering Connection at targeted reduced Non-technical Loss
percentage SHALL NOT EXCEED the computed Optimized Project Cost.
28
Power System Analysis 101 57
120
M illion s
110 Cost of Unrecovered NTL
100
Cost NTL Reduction Program
90
80 Optimum level of
loss reduction
C ost (Php )
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5.5951%
5.3853%
5.1755%
4.9657%
4.7559%
4.5461%
4.3362%
4.1264%
3.9166%
3.7068%
3.4970%
3.2871%
3.0773%
2.8675%
2.6577%
2.4479%
2.2381%
2.0282%
1.8184%
1.6086%
1.3988%
1.1890%
0.9791%
0.7693%
0.5595%
Non-Technical Loss (%)
System Loss
Reduction and Control
29
Power System Analysis 101 59
30
Power System Analysis 101 61
31
Power System Analysis 101 63
32
Power System Analysis 101 65
33
Power System Analysis 101 67
34
Power System Analysis 101 69
35
Power System Analysis 101 71
+ Very Large V
Current
Very Small
Resistance
I= ⇒∞
- Flow R →0
Short Circuit
36
Power System Analysis 101 73
37
Power System Analysis 101 75
MV Fault
LV
38
Power System Analysis 101 77
Low Voltage
Power Circuit
Breakers
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
39
Power System Analysis 101 79
40
Power System Analysis 101 81
41
Power System Analysis 101 83
42
Power System Analysis 101 85
COMPARISON OF DUTIES
TFF LLF DLGF SLGF MAX SC
BUS ID PHASE Margin Remarks
(KA) (KA) (KA) (KA) I Duty
BACKBONE LINES
S/S 3 2.30005 1.99190 2.86464 2.76467 2.86464 15 524 % Adequate
PG-17 3 2.09517 1.81447 2.32896 2.21705 2.32896 4 172 % Adequate
PG-26 3 1.98127 1.71583 2.10904 1.96635 2.10904 4 190 % Adequate
PG-40 3 1.82417 1.57978 1.85435 1.66821 1.85435 4 216 % Adequate
PG-52 3 1.70334 1.47514 1.68370 1.46936 1.70334 4 235 % Adequate
PG-53 3 1.69336 1.46650 1.67035 1.45395 1.69336 4 236 % Adequate
PG-63 3 1.59908 1.38485 1.54879 1.31529 1.59908 4 250 % Adequate
LATERAL LINES
PG-17-1 3 2.08156 1.80268 2.30059 2.18533 2.30059 4 174 % Adequate
PG-17-2 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2.14564 2.14564 4 186 % Adequate
PG-17-1-3 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2.01008 2.01008 4 199 % Adequate
PG-17-2-3 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2.06014 2.06014 4 194 % Adequate
PG-17-3-7 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.87921 1.87921 4 213 % Adequate
LATERAL LINES
PG-26-5 3 1.86883 1.61845 2.15303 1.79814 2.15303 4 186 % Adequate
PG-26-5-3 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.54157 1.54157 4 259 % Adequate
LATERAL LINES
PG-40-2 3 1.78352 1.54457 1.83166 1.61561 1.83166 4 218 % Adequate
PG-40-2-5 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.50666 1.50666 4 265 % Adequate
PG-40-2-6 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.58620 1.58620 4 252 % Adequate
LATERAL LINES
PG-52-7 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.38134 1.38134 4 290 % Adequate
LATERAL LINES
PG-53-1 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.44395 1.44395 4 277 % Adequate
43
Power System Analysis 101 87
Reliability Analysis
1. What is Reliability?
2. Measuring Reliability
3. Component Reliability
4. System Reliability
5. Distribution System Reliability
6. Economics of Power System Reliability
44
Power System Analysis 101 89
What is Reliability?
Outage (Component State)
Component is not available to perform its intended
function due to the event directly associated with that
component (IEEE-STD-346).
Interruption (Customer State)
Loss of service to one or more consumers as a result of
one or more component outages (IEEE-STD-346).
Types of Interruptions
Momentary Interruption. Service restored by
switching operations (automatic or manual) within a
specified time (5 minutes per IEEE-STD-346).
Sustained Interruption. An interruption not classified
as momentary
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
What is Reliability?
A reliable piece of equipment or a System is
understood to be basically sound and give trouble-
free performance in a given environment.
Definition of Reliability
Reliability is the probability that an equipment or
system will perform satisfactorily for at least a
given period of time when used under stated
conditions.
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
45
Power System Analysis 101 91
Measuring Reliability
1 3
System
Failure Mathematical 5
Reliability
2
Failure Model
Application
Events
(Reliability Index)
4
Reliability Data
Measuring Reliability
HISTORICAL SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION, INCIDENTS
PERFORMANCE
CUSTOMER, kVA MANAGEMENT
HISTORICAL
OPERATIONS
ASSESSMENT ENGINEERING
COMPONENT CUSTOMER INQUIRIES
POPULATION
COMPONENT
PERFORMANCE
PREDICTED SYSTEM
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE
DEFINITION PREDICTIVE
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
ASSESSMENT
AID TO DECISION-MAKING
PLANNING STUDIES
46
Power System Analysis 101 93
Component Reliability
Component Failure Data
Item No. Time-to-Failure (hrs.)
1 8
How Reliable
2 20 is the
3 34 component?
4 46
5 63
6 86
7 111
8 141
9 186
10 266
Component Reliability
Failure Time ∆ ti f(t)
Density 0–8 8 1 10
8
= 0.0125
Function 8 – 20 12 1 10
12
= 0.0084
f(t) 20 – 34 14 1 10
14
= 0.0074
1 10
34 – 46 12 = 0.0084
12
1 10
measure of the 46 – 63 17 17
= 0.0059
overall speed 63 – 86 23 1 10 =
0.0043
23
at which 1 10 =
86 – 111 25 0.0040
failures are 25
1 10
occurring. 111 – 141 30 = 0.0033
30
141 – 186 45 1 10
= 0.0022
45
1 10
186 – 266 80 = 0.0013
80
47
Power System Analysis 101 95
Component Reliability
Component Reliability
Failure Time ∆ ti h(t)
Hazard 0–8 8 1 10
= 0.0125
8
Function 8 – 20 12
19
= 0.093
12
h(t) 20 – 34 14
18
= 0.0096
14
17
34 – 46 12 = 0.0119
12
16=
measure of the 46 – 63 17
17
0.0098
instantaneous 63 – 86 23 15=
0.0087
23
speed of 14=
86 – 111 25 0.0100
failure 25
13
111 – 141 30 30
= 0.0111
[Propones to 141 – 186 45
12
= 0.0111
45
Failure] 11
186 – 266 80 80
= 0.0125
48
Power System Analysis 101 97
Component Reliability
1.4
h(t) failures/hr.x10-2 1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 100 200 300
Operating time, hr.
Hazard Function from Component Failure Data
Component Reliability
Reliability Function
t
R (t ) = e ∫0
h (τ )d τ
−
49
Power System Analysis 101 99
Component Reliability
h(t ) h(t )
λ Kt
t t
a. Constant Hazard b. Increasing Hazard
h(t )
K0
t
R (t ) = e ∫0
h (τ )d τ
−
t
K0 K1 t0
Reliability Function
a. Decreasing Hazard
Component Reliability
The Bathtub Curve
a. Hazard Function
50
Power System Analysis 101 101
Component Reliability
Hazard Model for Different System
Component Reliability
R (t )
h (t ) K
5 m=3 5
m=2
4 4
3 m=1 3
2 2
m = 0 .5 m=1 m = − 0 .5
1 m=0 1 m=2 m=0
m = −0 .5 m=3 m = 0 .5
t→ 1 2 τ → 1 2
51
Power System Analysis 101 103
Component Reliability
RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
of MERALCO Distribution Transformers*
Distribution Transformer Failures
• 1997: 996 DT Failures
• Average of three (3) DT Failures/day
• Lost Revenue during Downtime
• Additional Equipment Replacement Cost
• Lost of Customer Confidence
Identify the Failure Mode of DTs
Develop strategies to reduce DT failures
* R. R. del Mundo, et. al. (2000)
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Component Reliability
52
Power System Analysis 101 105
Component Reliability
Parametric Model
• Shape Factor Failure Mode
• Characteristic Life
Shape Factor Hazard Function Failure Mode
<1 Decreasing Early
=1 Constant Random
>1 Increasing Wear-out
Component Reliability
MERALCO DTs (1989–1997)
Brand New Recond Rewind Convert Total
A 29,960 835 1,333 2,048 34,712
B 5,986 118 135 269 6,586
C 6,358 49 31 21 6,561
D 2,037 116 90 - 2,344
E - - - - 192
F - - - - 168
G - - - - 79
H - - - - 69
TOTAL 44,341 1,118 1,588 2,338 51,129
Note: Total Include Acquired DTs
53
Power System Analysis 101 107
Component Reliability
Reliability Analysis: All DTs
Interval Failures Survivors Hazard
200 1444 57095 0.0269
400 797 48852 0.0178
600 638 39997 0.0174
800 508 32802 0.0167
1000 475 27515 0.0189
1200 363 22129 0.0178
1400 295 18200 0.0178
1600 224 14690 0.0167
1800 159 11865 0.0151
2000 89 9010 0.0114
2200 98 6473 0.0177
2400 51 4479 0.015
2600 19 2254 0.0122
2800 2 821 0.0042
3000 0 127 0
Component Reliability
Reliability Analysis: All DTs
0.03
0.025
0.015
0.01
Failure Mode: EARLY FAILURE
0.005
Is it Manufacturing Defect?
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000
Time Interval
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
54
Power System Analysis 101 109
Component Reliability
Reliability Analysis: By Manufacturer
BRAND Size Shape Failure Mode
A 34712 0.84 Early Failure
B 6586 0.81 Early Failure
C 6561 0.86 Early Failure
D 2344 0.76 Early Failure
E 192 0.85 Early Failure
F 168 0.86 Early Failure
G 79 0.76 Early Failure
H 69 0.98 Early Failure
Component Reliability
Reliability Analysis:
By Manufacturer & Condition
BRAND New Reconditioned Rewinded Converted
A 1.11 1.23 1.12 1.4
B 0.81 1.29 1.27 1.23
C 0.81 1.13 0.77 0.94
D 0.67 1.11 1.49 -
55
Power System Analysis 101 111
Component Reliability
Reliability Analysis: By Voltage Rating
PRI SEC All DTs New DTs
20 7.62 0.75 -
20 120/240 0.79 0.94
20 139/277 1.14 1.1
20 DUAL 0.72 1.03
13.2 120/240 0.88 1.54
13.2 240/480 0.91 -
7.62 120/240 0.99 1.46
7.62 DUAL 0.77 -
4.8 120/240 0.87 1.61
3.6 120/240 0.78 1.17
2.4 120/240 1.15 -
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Component Reliability
Reliability Analysis: By KVA Rating (New DTs)
KVA Shape Failure Mode
10 1.3 Wear-out
15 1.25 Wear-out
25 0.92 Early
37.5 0.83 Early
50 0.73 Early
75 1.05 Random
100 1.04 Random
167 1.16 Random
250 1.11 Random
333 1.46 Wear-out
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
56
Power System Analysis 101 113
Component Reliability
MERALCO Distribution Transformer
Reliability Analysis: Recommendations
• Review Replacement Policies
- New or Repair
- In-house or Remanufacture
• Improve Transformer Load Management Program
- Predict Demand Accurately (TLMS)
• Consider Higher KVA Ratings
• Consider Surge Protection for 20 kV DTs
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Component Reliability
Preventive Maintenance and Hazard Rates
Hazard
rate
m 2m 3m
Effect of PM on Increasing Hazard Rate
Hazard Hazard
rate rate
m 2m 3m m 2m 3m
57
Power System Analysis 101 115
Component Reliability
RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
of MERALCO Power Circuit Breakers*
Component Reliability
RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
of MERALCO Power Circuit Breakers*
Annual Failures of 34.5 kV OCBs
1997 1998 1999 2000 Average
Causes of Failures
Installed Failed Installed Failed Installed Failed Installed Failed
Failure (Units/yr)
Contact Wear 158 2 155 2 149 1 145 2 1.15
Bushing 158 1 155 3 149 3 145 1 1.317
Failure
Mechanism - - 155 1 - - - - 0.645
Failure
Totals 158 3 155 6 149 4 145 3 2.636
58
Power System Analysis 101 117
Reliability Assessment of
MERALCO Power Circuit Breakers
HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 34.5 KV OCBs HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 34.5 KV GCBs HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 13.8 KV MOCBs
H a z a r d R a te
H a za rd R a te
H a z a rd R a t e
0.3 0.15 0.3
0.2 0.1 0.2
0.1 0.05 0.1
0 0
0
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time Interval (months) Time Interval (months) Time Interval (months)
H az ard R ate
H a z a rd R a t e
H a z a r d R a te
Reliability Assessment of
MERALCO Power Circuit Breakers
HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 34.5 KV OCBs HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 34.5 KV GCBs HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 34.5 KV GCBs
HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 6.24 KV HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 6.24 KV HAZARD FUNCTION CURVE FOR 34.5 KV OCBs
MOCBs MOCBs
0.25
0.3 0.3 0.2
H a z a rd R a te
H a z a rd R a te
H a z a rd R a te
59
Power System Analysis 101 119
Component Reliability
RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
of MERALCO Power Circuit Breakers*
0.08
Hazard Rate
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Reliability-Based
Preventive Maintenance Schedule
System Reliability
Series Reliability Model
Series System
This arrangements represents a system whose
subsystems of components form a series network. If
any of the subsystem of component fails, the series
system experiences an overall system failure.
n
Rs = ∏ R( xi )
i =1
60
Power System Analysis 101 121
System Reliability
R(x3)
n
Rs = 1 − ∏ [1 − R( xi )]
R(x4) i =1
Parallel Network
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
System Reliability
Standby Redundancy Model
R(x1)
R(x2)
R(x3)
R(x4)
This type of redundancy represents a distribution with one
operating and n units as standbys. Unlike a parallel network
where all units in the configuration are active, the standby units
are not active.
61
Power System Analysis 101 123
System Reliability
K-Out-of-N Reliability Model
System Reliability 3
1
5
2
4
6
Networks
7
8
Primary side 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
21
20
22
25
24
26
of MERALCO* 27
29
28
30
31
32
33
34
35
Secondary side 37
36
38
40
41
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
62
Power System Analysis 101 125
λc
15λ λct
29λ λbus
2λ λd1
4λ λb1
2λ λp λb2
2λ λd2
3λ
System Reliability 3
1
5
2
4
6 75
71
73
70
72
74
Networks
7 76
8 77
9 78
18 16
17
127
128 19 15
129 20
14
130 21 13
131 22 12
132
of MERALCO 36
93
29
Primary side
37 94
38 95
39 96
40 97
41 98
44
100
101
46
102
103
104
67
68
69
63
Power System Analysis 101 127
λc
16λ λct
29λ λbus
2λ λd1
3λ λb1
2λ λp λb2
2λ λd2
3λ
λc
20λ λct
37λ λbus
3λ λd1
5λ λb1
2λ λp λb2
2λ λd2
3λ
Event 2: Closed 115kV bus tie breaker & opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P2 = 0.000188
λc
20λ λct
37λ λbus
2λ λd1
3λ λb1
2λ λp λb2
3λ λd2
5λ
Event 3: Closed 115kV bus tie breaker & closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P3 = 0.000000344
λc
20λ λct
37λ λbus
2λ λd1
3λ λb1
2λ λp λb2
3λ λd2
5λ
Event 4: Opened 115kV bus tie breaker & closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P4 = 0.00182614
Event 1: With two primary lines energized & opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P1 = 0.997985
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
64
Power System Analysis 101 129
λΒ1 λΒ1
Β3
λΒ2
Β3 λΒ1
Β3 λΒ1 λΒ2 λΒ2
Β3 Β3
Event 1: With two primary lines energized & opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P1 = 0.997985
Event 2: With one line, L2 interrupted & opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P2 = 0.000188
Event 3: With one line, L2 interrupted and closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P3 = 0.000000344
Event 4: With two lines energized and closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P4 = 0.001826140
65
Power System Analysis 101 131
System Reliability B1
1 67
B4
Networks
17
16 32 82
15 81
80
14
13 79
12 78
11 77
10 76
B2 9
8
75 B5
73 74
7 72
6
5 71
70
4
19 84
20 85
21 86
22 87
of MERALCO B3 88
24
25
23
89
90
B6
26 91
27 92
28 93
29 94
30 95
31 96
33
97
B7 34 98
B8
38
101
100
102
103
39
43
104 105
106
107
44 108
45 109
46 110
47 111
48
49
112 Secondary side
113
51 50 114 115
52 130 116
53
54
128 123 119
55 125 121 117
56
B10 58
57 129
127
126
124
120
122
118
59
60
62
61
63
B9
64
65
66
66
Power System Analysis 101 133
λB1 λB2
λB4 λB5
λB6 λB3
Event 1: With two primary lines energized & opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P1 = 0.997985
λB1 λB4
λB1 λB3
λB4 λB6
λB6 λB3
Event 2: With two primary lines energized & closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P2 = 0.00182614
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
CONT.
Event 3: With one primary line (L2) interrupted and opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P3 = 0.000188056
Event 4: With one primary line (L2) interrupted and closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P4 = 0.000000344
67
Power System Analysis 101 135
System Reliability
1 2
1 7
1 8
7
1 9
1 61 9
9 3
1
5
3 1 1
4
B1 1
8
9
0
2
Networks
21 8
1 89
8
0
B2 9
7
8 B5
7
8
5 8 8
8
6 B6
6 4
5 3 8
4 8 2
3 1 8
2 7 0
9
3 8
1 9 0
8 1 4
9
of MERALCO 3
0
2
9
3
3 0
10
6
10
5
10
3 1 10 7
3 10
3 2
3 118 9
B4 4
3
6 3
3
5
0
11 11
11
1 B8
3 7 2 11 3
83 4 11
4 9 5
11
0 4 6 11
11
4 1 11 7
9
2 8
4 12
4 1
B9 B10
4 12
5 2
(secondary side)
6 3
75 4 13
5
8
13
6 13
5
Secondary
9 6
6
6
2
6 0
1
15 14
13 7
8 side 13
9
3 6 4 0
6 4 15 14 14
5 14
6 2 158 6 14 14
1
4 2
6 66 15
0
14
6 7 8 3 15 14 14 14
5
9 7 1 9 7 3
7 0
1 7 7
37 2
4
B1
7
5
7 6
7 1
7
68
Power System Analysis 101 137
λΒ7
33 λΒ5
34
λ17 λΒ2
17
λΒ1
Β3 λΒ1
Β3 λΒ1
Β3 λΒ1
Β3
λλΒ1
6 λλΒ1
6 λΒ3 λΒ3 λλΒ3
6 λλΒ3
6
A λλΒ2
17 λλΒ4
33 λΒ2 λλΒ2
33
λλΒ2
7 λΒ2 λΒ5
Β2 λΒ5
33
λλΒ5
7 λΒ5
λλ119
33 λ17
34 λΒ7
33 λλΒ8
34
λ119 λΒ4
Β2 λ17
33 λΒ6
34
λΒ8 λλ119
Β2
Event 1: With two primary lines energized and opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P1 = 0.997985
λΒ1
Β3 λΒ2
Β3
λλΒ1
6 λλΒ5
6
λλΒ7
33 λΒ5
34
λΒ7 λλΒ2
17
λΒ5
Β3 λΒ3 λΒ3 λΒ2
Β3
λλΒ2
6 λλΒ2
6 λΒ5
Β3 λΒ4
Β3
λλΒ4
6 λλ119
6 λλ119
6
A λΒ2
17 λΒ5
33 λΒ5
Β2 λΒ5
33
λλΒ5
7 λΒ4 λΒ6
Β2 λΒ5
33
λλΒ5
7 λΒ5 λΒ5
λλ119
33 λ17
34 λΒ6
33 λΒ8
34
λ119 λΒ5
Β2 λΒ8
33 λΒ6
34
λ17 λΒ7
Β2 λΒ6
Β2
Event 2: With two primary lines energized and closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P2 = 0.001826
69
Power System Analysis 101 139
λΒ7 λΒ7
Β3 λΒ8 λΒ8 λΒ8 λΒ3 λΒ3 λΒ2
Β3 Β3 17 17 Β3 λλ119
Β3 λλ119
Β3
Event 3: With one primary line (L1) interrupted and opened 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P3 = 0.000188
Event 4: With one primary line (L1) interrupted and closed 34.5kV bus tie breaker; P4 = 0.000000344
70
Power System Analysis 101 141
71
Power System Analysis 101 143
72
Power System Analysis 101 145
73
Power System Analysis 101 147
L1 L2 L3
SYSTEM LOAD DATA
Number of Average Load
Load Point
Customers Demand (KW)
L1 200 1000
L2 150 700
L3 100 400
INTERRUTION DATA
Number of
Interruption Load Point Average Load Duration of
Disconnected
Event i Affected Curtailed (KW) Interruption
Customers
1 L3 100 400 6 hours
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
74
Power System Analysis 101 149
SAIFI =
∑N C
=
100
∑N 200 + 150 + 100
= 0.222222 interruption customer - yr
SAIDI =
∑ N d = (100 )(6 )
C
CAIDI =
∑ N d = (100 )(6 )
C
∑N C100
= 6 hours custumer - interruption
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
ASUI =
∑N C d ∑ N = SAIDI = 1.333333
8760 8760 8760
= 0.000152
ASCI =
ENS
=
∑ L d = (400 )(6 )
a
75
Power System Analysis 101 151
76
Power System Analysis 101 153
77
Power System Analysis 101 155
SAIFI =
∑N C
∑N
SAIDI =
∑N d C
∑N
MAIFI =
∑N C
∑N
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Required Data:
1. Component Reliability Data
λi - failure rate of component i
ri - mean repair time of component i
2. System Load Data
Ni - number of customers at point i
Li - the demand at point i
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
78
Power System Analysis 101 157
2
n
λs = Σ λi λp = λ1λ2 (r1 + r2)
i=1
n r1 r2
Σ λiri rp = __________
i=1
rs = _________ r1 + r2
λs
L1 L2 L3
COMPONENT DATA
λ r
Feeder
(f/year) (hours)
A 0.2 6
B 0.1 5
C 0.15 8
SYSTEM LOAD DATA
Number of Average Load
Load Point
Customers Demand (KW)
L1 200 1000
L2 150 700
L3 100 400
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National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
79
Power System Analysis 101 159
Reliability Indices
SAIFI =
∑ λ N = (0.2 )(200 ) + (0.3)(150 ) + (0.45 )(100 )
i i
SAIDI =
∑U N = (1.2 )(200 ) + (1.7 )(150 ) + (2.9 )(100 )
i i
CAIDI =
∑U N i i
=
SAIDI 1.744444
=
∑λ N i i SAIFI 0.288889
= 6.038462 hours customer - interruption
80
Power System Analysis 101 161
ASUI =
∑U N ∑ N
i i i
=
SAIDI 1.744444
=
8760 8760 8760
= 0.000199
ASCI =
ENS
=
∑ L ( )U
a i i
=
(1000 )(1.2 ) + (700 )(1.7 ) + (400 )(2.9 )
∑ Ni ∑N i 200 + 150 + 100
= 7.888889 KWh customer - yr
1 2 3 4
Source
a b c d
A D
C
B
Typical radial distribution system
81
Power System Analysis 101 163
Main
2 1 0.1 4
3 3 0.3 4
4 2 0.2 4
a 1 0.2 2
Lateral
b 3 0.6 2
c 2 0.4 2
d 1 0.2 2
82
Power System Analysis 101 165
SAIFI =
∑ λ N = (2.2)(1000) + (2.2)(800) + (2.2)(700) + (2.2)(500 )
i i
SAIDI =
∑U N = (6.0 )(1000) + (6.0 )(800) + (6.0 )(700) + (6.0 )(500)
i i
CAIDI =
∑U N i i
=
SAIDI 6.0
=
∑λ N i i SAIFI 2.2
= 2.727273 hours customer - interruption
ASUI =
∑U N ∑ N i i i
=
SAIDI
=
6 .0
8760 8760 8760
= 0.000685
ASCI =
∑L U ai i
∑N i
=
(5000 )(6.0 ) + (4000 )(6.0 ) + (3000 )(6.0 ) + (2000 )(6.0 )
1000 + 800 + 700 + 500
= 28.0 KWh customer - yr
83
Power System Analysis 101 167
a b c d
A D
C
B
a 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 3.6 3.6 1.4 3.14 4.4 1.2 3.33 4.0 1.0 3.6 3.6
84
Power System Analysis 101 169
SAIFI = ∑
λi Ni
=
(1.0)(1000) + (1.4)(800) + (1.2)(700) + (1.0)(500)
∑N i
1000+ 800 + 700 + 500
= 1.153333 int customer− yr
SAIDI =
∑U N = (3.6 )(1000) + (4.4 )(800) + (4.0 )(700) + (3.6 )(500)
i i
CAIDI =
∑U N i i
=
SAIDI 3.906667
=
∑λ N i i SAIFI 1.153333
= 3.387283 hours customer - interruption
ASUI =
∑U N ∑ N i i i
=
SAIDI 3.906667
=
8760 8760 8760
= 0.000446
ASCI =
∑L U ai i
∑N i
=
(5000 )(3.6 ) + (4000 )(4.4 ) + (3000 )(4.0 ) + (2000 )(3.6 )
1000 + 800 + 700 + 500
= 18.266667 KWh customer - yr
85
Power System Analysis 101 171
a b c d
A D
C
B
Typical radial distribution system reinforce with
lateral protections and disconnects
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.89 2.65 1.2 2.75 3.3 1.0 3.6 3.6
86
Power System Analysis 101 173
SAIFI =
∑ λ N = (1.0 )(1000) + (1.4 )(800) + (1.2)(700) + (1.0 )(500)
i i
SAIDI =
∑U N = (1.5)(1000) + (2.65)(800) + (3.3)(700) + (3.6 )(500)
i i
CAIDI =
∑U N i i
=
SAIDI 2.576667
=
∑λ N i i SAIFI 1.153333
= 2.234105 hours customer - interruption
ASUI =
∑U N ∑ N i i i
=
SAIDI 2.576667
=
8760 8760 8760
= 0.000294
ASCI =
∑L U ai i
∑N i
=
(5000 )(1.5 ) + (4000 )(2.65 ) + (3000 )(3.3) + (2000 )(3.6 )
1000 + 800 + 700 + 500
= 11.733333 KWh customer - yr
87
Power System Analysis 101 175
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01
Lateral
b 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.6 2 1.2 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.06 0.5 0.03
c 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.4 2 0.8 0.04 0.5 0.02
d 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.12 1.39 1.56 1.48 1.82 2.69 1.3 2.58 3.35 1.12 3.27 3.66
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.15
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.39 1.95 1.2 1.88 2.25 1.0 1.5 1.5
where : λtotal = ∑ λ ; U total = ∑ U ; rtotal = ∑ U ∑λ
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
88
Power System Analysis 101 177
2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 1.9 0.19 0.1 1.9 0.19
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 1.9 0.57
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4
Distributor
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.59 2.23 1.2 2.23 2.67 1.0 2.3 2.3
where : λtotal = ∑ λ ; U total = ∑ U ; rtotal = ∑ U ∑λ
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
89
Power System Analysis 101 179
• Investment Cost
• Operation and Maintenance Cost
• Fuel Cost
IC + O&M + FC
Annual Supply Cost (ASC) =
Annual kWh Generation
90
Power System Analysis 101 181
Supply Cost
Luzon Grid Supply Cost*
LOLP Frequency Duration Supply Cost
(days/yr) (per year) (Hours) (Php/kWh)
12.26 70 2.11 0.90
6.25 38 2.00 0.94
1.88 13 1.73 1.01
0.94 7 1.61 1.03
0.45 4 1.50 1.06
0.21 2 1.38 1.09
0.08 0.73 1.31 1.11
0.04 0.31 1.30 1.14
Source: del Mundo (1991)
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Supply Cost
Luzon Grid
Supply Cost
91
Power System Analysis 101 183
Outage Cost
Impact of Power Interruptions
To Electric Utility
• Loss of revenues
• Additional work
• Loss of confidence
To Customers
• Dissatisfaction
• Interruption of productivity
• Additional investment for alternative power
supply
To National Economy
• Loss value added/income
• Loss of investors
• Unemployment
Outage Cost
Impact to National Economy:
NEDA Study (1974)
P 342,380 per day – losses due to brownout in Cebu-Mandaue
area
Business Survey (1980)
P1.4 Billion – losses due to brownouts in 1980
CRC Memo No. 27 (1988)
P 3.4 Billion – loss of the manufacturing sector in 1987 due to
power outages
Viray & del Mundo Study (1988)
P 25 – losses in Value Added per kWh curtailment
Sinay Report (1989)
45% – loss in Value Added in the manufacturing sector in
Cebu due to power outages
92
Power System Analysis 101 185
Outage Cost
Impact to Customers:
A. Short-Run Direct Cost
• Opportunity losses during outages
• Opportunity losses during restart period
• Raw materials spoilage
• Finish products spoilage
• Idle workers
• Overtime
• Equipment damage
• Special operation and maintenance during restart period
B. Long-Run Adaptive Response Cost
• Standby generators
• Power plant
• Alternative fuels
• Transfer location
• Inventory
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Outage Cost
Outage Cost to Industrial Sector in Luzon
93
Power System Analysis 101 187
Outage Cost
Luzon Grid Outage Cost*
LOLP Frequency Duration Outage Cost
(days/yr) (per year) (Hours) (Php/kWh)
12.26 70 2.11 1.12
6.25 38 2.00 0.68
1.88 13 1.73 0.34
0.94 7 1.61 0.26
0.45 4 1.50 0.22
0.21 2 1.38 0.20
0.08 0.73 1.31 0.18
0.04 0.31 1.30 0.18
Source: del Mundo (1991)
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Outage Cost
Luzon Grid
Outage Cost
94
Power System Analysis 101 189
Total Cost
Luzon Grid Total Cost ATC = ASC + AOC
LOLP Supply Cost Outage Cost Total Cost
(days/yr) (Php/kWh) (Php/kWh) (Php/kWh)
12.26 0.90 2.11 2.02
6.25 0.94 2.00 1.62
1.88 1.01 1.73 1.35
0.94 1.03 1.61 1.29
0.45 1.06 1.50 1.28
0.21 1.09 1.38 1.29
0.08 1.11 1.31 1.29
0.04 1.14 1.30 1.32
Source: del Mundo (1991)
U. P. National Engineering Center Power System Engineering
National Electrification Administration for Non-Engineers
Luzon Grid
Total Cost
95
Power System Analysis 101 191
96