1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1

Background

At the beginning of the twentieth century, when the revolution in transportation was only dimly foreseen, H.G. Wells, on a visit to North America, wrote that the way people and their belongings get from one place to another is in itself a trivial matter but that the process involves other matters that have an almost fundamental relation to the social order (Edwards, 1992). The truth of this observation is everywhere apparent. Transportation is only one of many factors influencing the nature of society, but its special role derives from the fact that without it, the effective operation of other sectors of the economy is almost always precluded. It is unarguable that transport is essential to the functioning of any society. It influences the location and range of productive and leisure activities, residence, provision of goods and services available for consumption. It inevitable influences the quality of life. In view of the growth of demand to come, will a transport-dependent society be able to cope with the growing backlog of needs and to meet the still higher

2 demand for quality service that seems inevitable? Although the accomplishments of transportation are notable, but there is growing concern over congestion, physical deteriorating, accidents and so on. Current trends raise momentous issues for transportation planners. Furthermore, in Malaysia, the car ownership is growing rapidly everywhere in recent year. The same situation even occurs in the university campuses. This trend seems to be continuing in the future if the environment also remains growing in trend as before. Besides, as a developing country, the continued growth of the countries economy especially in the field of technology, engineering and other developments consequently increased the needs of experts in the respective fields. With these growths, university campuses have been expending in the aspect of population, premises, facilities and infrastructures which including the traffic and transportation networks. However, relatively little attention has been given to parking and transportation issues in and around college campuses in Malaysia. Such issues are important as future policy makers in transportation are exposed to and influenced by these systems. University campuses actually provide an excellent laboratory for implementing various transportation management alternatives. Therefore, in this study, the main campus of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in Skudai, Johor Bahru, is selected as a study area because it is one of the largest universities among 19 universities in Malaysia with approximately 28,000 students and 3,500 staffs attending the main campus.

1.2

Need for the Study

The state of the road has been a favourite topic of conversation from earliest times. The debate continues today. The problem of inadequate public transport, of

3 road congestion, of inadequate parking space and of the need to preserve the good quality of the environment provide the source of news for all local newspaper. In fact the necessity for transport planning is largely self-evident. Throughout the day and night people are engaged in a variety of activities which including working, going to school, shopping and so on. Hence, to take part in these activities people frequently need to travel between their origin and destination for some distance. It is a fact to admit that all of these activities are very depending on the provision and level of services of traffic and transportation system available in the zoning areas. As happen in most of the areas, transport problems also occur in the university campuses. For instance, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in Skudai with the area of 1,222 hectare and students of approximately 28,000 and 3,500 staffs could be simply treated as a small urban area. Wells (1975) highlighted that the small town and we can perhaps visualize a typical town as being one of about 30,000 population has transport problems, but they are different from those of the large town. The solutions too are different. And because of its size, the capital resources likely to be available for transport investment in a small town, within a typical planning period, are also small possibly less than proportionately so. The same idea might be applied in the campus with such a big population. As we know, transport problems always occur with the growth of population. In order to achieve a totally well planned and organized campus, traffic and transportation system is an essential portion, in fact the prior part of the whole development planning of the campus. Without a proper planning of traffic and transportation system in the campus, a lot of unwanted transport issues such as delay in attending lectures, lack of parking space and green zones, environment pollution might be raised. If there is little doubt about the need for transportation planning, there is much more doubt about its success.

4 1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objectives of this study are to:i) obtain AM and PM peak hour trip generation volumes in terms of numbers of students, numbers of staffs and total numbers of population; ii) obtain peak hour trip generation volumes of the trips attracted by the home-based students going to lectures and staffs going to work activities to Universiti Teknologi Malaysia from in-campus hostels in terms of vehicle ownerships / modes used for traveling; iii) obtain peak hour trip generation volumes of the trips attracted by the home-based students going to lectures and staffs going to work activities to Universiti Teknologi Malaysia from off-campus hostels and private residential areas in terms of vehicle ownerships / modes used for traveling; iv) obtain the trip generation linear regression equations for the trip generation above by conducting the relevant statistical analysis for model building of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; v) determine and compare the correlated independent variables between objective (ii) and (iii);

1.4

Scope of the Study

To accomplish the foregoing objectives, the scope of the study is defined to include the following:i) to collect reliable information of land use and numbers of population;

5 ii) iii) to obtain the existing traffic and transportation system provided and policy establishment; to ascertain trip generation among the zoning areas within the boundary of study area by way of Origin & Destination (O&D) interview surveys; iv) to identify and allocate variables such as population and vehicle ownerships / modes of travel, which can be used to forecast the trip generations in terms of the particular parameters;

1.5

Proposed Research Methodology

This proposed study intends to determine the weekday peak hour trip generation linear regression equations to the main campus of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in terms of the numbers of students, staffs and total population, and also the vehicle ownerships / modes of traveling by the population staying in in-campus hostels or off-campus hostels and surrounding residential area as to form specific and reliable trip generation models particularly for the main campus of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in Skudai, Johor. In order to form a transportation model, there is a common basic approach which can be applied to all forms of transportation planning, including planning for local transport policy. This approach may be summarized by three distinct phases, which consist of a survey, analysis and model building phase; a forecasting phase; and an evaluation phase. The first phase give the result of the existing travel demand, and the way that this demand satisfied on the existing transport facilities. The relationship between the present demand and the existing environment is examined. This examination enables models to be model of these relationships, which can then be used, in the forecasting phase. The forecasting stage uses the relationships established in the analysis and model building stage to make estimates of the future travel demand. In this case, it requires the planner to provide a plan for

6 testing. Therefore, information is needed on the population and transport facilities proposed within an area, so that the results that would follow from such a plan can be forecast. Finally, the evaluation stage assesses the results of the two previous phases to see whether they satisfy defined objectives. This study focuses on the first phase of the process, i.e. the survey, analysis and model building phase. The detail of the methodology of this study is discussed in Chapter Three.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

The way people and their belongings get from one place to another is in itself a trivial matter but that the process involves other matters that have an almost fundamental relation to the social order. Therefore, it could not be denied that transport is essential to the functioning of any society. The demand for transport derives from the needs of people to travel from one place to another to carry out the activities of their daily lives. This demand for movement is affected by (Bruton, 1985):i) ii) iii) the location of the home, workplace, shopping, educational and other activities; the nature of the transport system available; and the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population. Bruton (1985) also highlighted that the demographic and socio-economic characteristics which are most significant in influencing the demand for transport are:-

i) ii) iii) iv)

population size; population structure, by age and sex; household size, structure and formation rate; the size and structure of the labour force, income level, which is usually measured by some proxy such as number of cars owned or owner occupation;

v)

the socio-economic status of the chief economic supporter of the household.

These characteristics can interact in a complex way to affect demand for transport, while their location or distribution and the way the interrelationships change with time further complicate an already complex situation. Experience tells that building more traffic capacity is not always the answer to solve transport problem. In many cases in Malaysia especially in the big city such as Klang Valley and Johor Bahru, new highways are jammed as soon as they are opened to traffic. This is a phenomenon that is occurring in urban areas throughout the world. In order to overcome the transport problems in a long run, Owen (1992) suggested that measures could be taken to reduce the need for transportation. Some types of transportation can be avoided. There are many examples of how transportation has been reduced through fortuitous events outside the transportation system. One of them is, in the foreign countries, hauling ice gave way to refrigeration by electricity delivered by wire and home heating that once depended on carrying coal has likewise seen energy resources shift to wires and pipes. In developing country like Malaysia, the above idea currently only can be considered as a long-term vision although some cases applied but it only helps to reduce very minority traffic problems. The recent transportation issues still need to be solved immediately. However, the feedback effect of new transport capacity provided always end up with encourages more development and subsequently more traffic. Therefore, proper traffic and transportation planning is essential which initially involves trip generation studies.

9 According to Clark (1975), the rapid rise in vehicular travel in the sixties created acute transport problems in urban areas and led to comprehensive land use / transportation studies (LUTS) for many towns. This resulted in the collection of relevant data for trip generation studies as part of these LUTS, either in the form of person movement from home interview surveys or of goods vehicle movements from survey of owners and users.

2.2

Transport Planning

As been discussed earlier in Chapter 1, based on most of the literature study done, there is a common basic approach can be applied to all forms of transport planning, which may be summarized by three distinct stage:i) ii) iii) a survey, analysis and model building phase; a forecasting phase; and an evaluation phase.

The sequence of the steps basically followed as part of transport planning process is shown in Figure 2.1. In order to plan, initially, it is essential to have information. Thus, planning has to be dependent on surveys, which may take different forms. One of the most, the home interview surveys has become an accepted source of information. Prior to any survey or data collection, the purpose and area of the study must be clear defined. There is a tendency to collect a large amount of information that it ought to be useful if the definition of the purpose and area are not clear. Data collection is an expensive and time-consuming process. It is always the case that considerable quantities of data are required and great care is needed in designing the survey stage of a study to ensure that the results are statistically significant. There is a danger of not collecting enough data to calibrate models with reasonable level of significant.

10

Survey

Definition of the survey area - zoning

Inventory of Existing Travel Patterns

Inventory of Existing Transport Facilities

Inventory of Existing Planning Parameters

Summary of existing Travel Characteristics

Analysis & Model Building

Future Planning Parameters Future Transport Facilities

Trip Generation

Trip distribution

Forecast Future Policies

Trip Assignment

Modal split Evaluation

Revise policies

Evaluation

Figure 2.1:

General Transport Planning Process

11 There is also the possibility that too much data is collected. These are both waste of resources and hindrance to an understanding of the problem. The data collected from an adequate survey suppose contains a lot of information regarding travel behaviour. Analyses of these data are very useful for designing the existing facilities such as traffic system management or arrangements of public transport system. Besides, it provides an understanding of the relationship between travel behaviour and the environment so that the relationships can be established and synthesized quantitatively using modeling techniques. Lane (1971) mentioned that it has been found from past studies which the vast majority of work trips take place in the morning and evening peak, most journeys begin and end at home, offices and shops attract more journeys per unit of area than industrial or commercial land use. The model building process is the most challenging stage of transport planning. It is important to forecast future travel demands. The transport model is conventionally divided into four main procedures:i) ii) iii) iv) trip generation; trip distribution; trip assignment; and modal split.

All these stages are assumed to be separated although in the real world they are all interlinked. Trip generation can be considered as a decision to make a journey. It examines the relationship between the number of trips made and certain quantifiable parameters such as trip purpose, household income, vehicle-ownership and land use. This stage of modeling will be discussed more detail in the next portion of this chapter. The next stage in the transport model is trip distribution, which involves selection of a suitable destination and analysis of the trips between zones. The trip patterns between all zones and the network information are used to develop reliable

12 relationships between these trips, their geographical origins and destinations and also the type of vehicles they will use. Whereas, trip assignment is the process by which the route a traveler will take between two zones is determined. It is common to decide that the route, which can be assigned to a trip between two zones, is the route uses the minimum time or cost of travel. Another last stage is modal split that the individual chooses a particular mode of travel. Data collected at the survey stage is used to determine the proportions of people using public transport. As a completed transport model has been assembled, data consistency checks should be followed. Actual traffic counts at certain location are checked with the volumes from the synthetic model. If there is discrepancy, the mathematical relationship formed earlier has to be adjusted, so call calibration. Then, finally the model can be used to forecast future travel demands. In order to forecast the future travel demands, it is necessary to obtain as much information affecting travel behaviour as possible such as population, employment and income distribution. A transport model that satisfactory explains the present use of the existing transportation system is an invaluable guide for any future use of any other transportation system. Forecasting normally involves prediction of the future demand for travel, the future availability of transport and use of the available transport. After the completion of traffic forecasting process, the results need to be evaluated. Firstly, the computation process and output must be reconfirmed. It is mainly numerical evaluation to ensure that the model is mathematically correct. Following that, the apparent accuracy of the resultant forecasts should be examined. Other than evaluation of the model itself, operational and economic evaluations also need to be carried out. The purpose of operational evaluation is to check whether a new proposed system or network is able to satisfy the forecast travel patterns. Whereas, economic evaluation is to study the cost-benefit so that to choose the best network proposal which falls within a given budget constraint, but with maximum benefit to the community by minimizing the cost of travel.

13 2.3 Trip Generation Modeling

As discussed in the earlier subtopic, the first stage of transport modeling is trip generation. In this study, this stage of transport modeling will be used to produce the trip generation model. Hence, some description of trip generation by a few authors or researchers will be presented. Journey is a one-way movement from a point of origin to a point of destination. Although the word trip is literally defined as an outward and return journey, often for a specific purpose, in transport modeling both terms are used interchangeably (Ortuzar, 1990). According to Lane (1971), trip generation often used as a general term to describe the trip-end forecasting models of generation and attraction. Trip generation is an examination of the relationship between the number of trips made and certain quantifiable parameters. Trip generation rates are used to predict the number of vehicle trips generated by specific land use when further planning of any developments is to be carrying out. Based on this outcome, the volume of traffic that would be generated by the development can be forecasted and the impacts can be analyzed. All traffic studies involve the estimation of the trip generation of a particular land-use. Generally, in traffic studies, trip generation can be studied based either on person trip generation or vehicle trip generation. Person trip generation is the total of person trips generated by one type of land use. Whereas, vehicle trip generation refers to the total number of vehicles generated by a land use. Normally, transport planners are interested in all vehicular trips, but walking trips longer than a certain study-defined threshold (say 400 meters or three blocks) are often considered. Eventually, trips made by infants of less than five years of age will usually be ignored (Ortuzar, 1990).

14 Every trip will have two trip ends, an origin and a destination. At both ends there always associate with a purpose, for instance, from home to work. Based on the study of Lane (1971), trip ends in this form were used in many of the early studies. As transportation planning technology developed later, it was found necessary to introduce new definitions. It was observed that trips could be classified into two types, home-based and non-home-based, the former being defined as having one end of the trip at the home of the person making trip, and the latter having neither end at the home of the person making the trip. It was then also found convenient to split trips ends into two classes: ends from which trips radiated, known as trip generations and ends to which trips were attracted known as trip attractions. A trip generation was therefore defined as the home end of a homebased trip, or the origin of a non-home-based trip; while a trip attraction was defined as the non-home end of a home-based trip or the destination of a non-homebased trip. As defined by Ortuzar (1990), home-based trip is one where the home of the trip maker is either the origin or the destination of the journey. Conversely, nonhome-based trip is one where neither end of the trip is the home of the traveler. In Klang Valley of Malaysia, Wan Ahmad, et al. (1986) identified that almost 80.5 % of all trips are home-based trips. In the Trip Generation Study (Pilot Study) of Malaysia (Highway Planning Unit, 1997), trip generation can be defined as the total number of inbound and outbound vehicle trip-ends from a site over a given period of time. Generation here does not imply a direction. Trip is a journey of a person or vehicle that begins at one location and ends at another one. Trip-End is defined as the start or end of a trip. Each trip has two trip-ends, an origin and a destination. When the number of vehicles entering or exiting a site is counted, trip-ends are counted. For the purpose of a site-specific traffic impact study, the distinction between trips and trip-ends is not important. For area-wide traffic studies, however, the distinction between a trip and trip-end is very important because care needs to be taken that the trip is not counted twice.

15 According to Definition of Terms in Trip Generation, which published by Institute of Transportation Engineers (1991), trip is a single or one-direction vehicle movement with either the origin or the destination (exiting or entering) inside a study site. One trip-end is equal to one trip, as defined prior to this. For trip generation purposes, total trip-ends for a land use over a given period of time are the total of all trips entering plus all trips exiting a site during that designated time. Trip generation modeling is to analysis and estimates the person or vehicle trips. The techniques used for the purpose are usually identifying the relationship between travel characteristics and the environment. Trip generation models are available for land uses in many developed countries. The most common are those presented by the Trip Generation (Institute of Transportation Engineers, 1991). Nevertheless, the models generated in the developed countries may not be adequate for developing country like Malaysia in view of the different life-style, cultural, weather and socio-economic background of the populations. Therefore, it is important to develop proper models and travel patterns for different land uses or trip purposes in developing countries. According to Ortuzar and Willumsen (1990), a model can be defined as a simplified representation of a part of the real world, the system of interest, which concentrates on certain elements considered important for its analysis from a particular point of view. Model building is a mathematical process used to formula relationships between two or more variables. The term model is used to describe both simple mathematical relationships, such as a trip generation model, which might describe trip-making behaviour and complementary linked systems of relationships, such as the transportation planning process. A complex model such as the transport model comprises a number of sub-models, such as the trip generation model. Coombe (1996) reported that mathematical models of transportation systems have played a prominent role in transportation planning throughout the world since the 1960s. These models are hypotheses of how people use transport system. The

16 reason for using any kind of synthetic model is that the complexities of human behaviour are such that future travel choices cannot be forecast directly from observation of existing behaviour, although it is inevitable that behaviour is represented in a simplified way in a model. He also tells that models which have been adequately calibrated and validated provide a means of extrapolating empirical evidence, thereby enabling more extensive conclusions to be drawn from the necessarily limited empirical evidence of how road users respond to changes in the road system. However, it needs to be recognized that these extrapolations rely for their validity on the realism of the underlying theories. Transportation models can only tell us about the relationships actually built into them. Therefore, the models cannot inform us about drivers reactions for which mathematical relationships or procedures have not been developed and incorporated in the models. In that respect, of course, the evidence from modeling exercises is only as good as the behavioural basis behind the model forms and the response coefficients.

2.4 The Experiences of Developed Countries

The trip generation experience in the United States is long and varied. There have been numerous studies over the years conducted by state and local governments as well as by consultants. The most commonly used source of Trip Generation data is the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation manual. In United State of America (USA), the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) has produced trip generation rates for various specific land use based on more than 3,000 trip generation studies. The ITE data has been shown to be relatively stable over time for most land uses, despite significant increase in car ownership and twoincome families during the past 30 years. This stability might be attributed to the reducing factor on trip rates caused by smaller household size as well as an increase in the number of households whose car ownership exceeds the number of registered

17 drivers in the household. This observation may be of use in the Malaysian context as it suggests that once a certain level of trip generation is reached, increase in car ownership will not necessarily result in an increased in vehicle trips. In USA, the procedure of collecting trip generation data is relatively simple compare to the conservative one because development patterns have resulted in a large number of stand-alone developments with isolated parking areas which are used only for the development under consideration. Vehicle classification counts are not conducted since private cars dominate. The above practice in USA varies widely from community to community. There is a high degree of reliance on the ITE Trip Generation Manual. But, some cities do publish their own rates based on local surveys. For special case, the degree of professional interpretation might vary widely. However, of course, the majority of the practices focus on the ITE Trip Generation Manual. In United Kingdom of Britain and Northern Ireland, one source of trip generation is the TRICS system. TRICS was formed in 1987 in Southern England to combine and swap trip generation data for development control purposes. It is a computer database that holds traffic-count data for a series of land uses. Key features of the system and the approach to trip generation are as below (Highway Planning Unit, 1997b):i) Input parameters include: retail floor area, office space, number of units and so on as well as descriptions relevant to each project and its location. ii) iii) iv) The system allows a user to select one site or multiple sites which will be included in the calculation of an average trip rate. The system is designed to maximize the scope for professional interpretation of the data. Some guidelines and cautions based on experience with the data set have been set forth; but no fixed and firm rules on how to use the data have been established. v) A private consultant maintains the database and program.

18 vi) Data developed comes from a variety of sources, not just the southern countries in England where the original data set was developed. Suppliers of data are responsible for the quality of the data; however, an audit check is performed before the data is added to the set. vii) It is intended that all sites be re-surveyed on a 5-year cycle to keep current with changing travel patterns. Data older than 6-years is automatically excluded from the summaries. viii) ix) This system allows users to add their own data to the database The data set is defined with twenty three (23) land use categories.

The key advantage of this approach is that a user can focus on survey sites that most accurately portray the project being studied. This approach requires a high degree of experience and professionalism to obtain good results. Therefore, the UK approach relies heavily on the professionalism of its traffic planners to interpret and apply the trip generation data. In other wards, only guidelines are suggested and each professional must rely on their own knowledge and experience to inter prt the data. The above discussions are summarized from the Trip Generation Study (Pilot Study) of Malaysia (Highway Planning Unit, 1997b) in establishing a proper trip generation manual to be used for the local communities in Malaysia.

2.5 Vehicle Growth in Malaysia

In Malaysia, the car ownership is growing rapidly in recent year. This trend seems to be continuing in the future if the environment also remains growing in trend as before. Table 2.1 shows the tabulation of the vehicle registrations by state in year 1996. Although this data does not give indication on the vehicle ownership rates, it provides an overview for the distribution of vehicle ownership in Malaysia.

19 Table 2.1: Motor Vehicle Registration As at 31st December 1996 State Total Number of Registered Vehicles As at 31st Dec., 1996 25,466 366,037 837,023 845,689 1,036,624 1,502,890 325,431 269,614 1,064,110 334,883 166,583 239,361 257,837 415,136 7,686,684

Perlis Kedah PulauPinang Perak Selangor Wilayah Persekutuan Negeri Sembilan Melaka Johor Pahang Terengganu Kelantan Sabah Sarawak Total Source: Highway Planning Unit, 1996

Basically, Table 2.1 calculated that about 20 % of all registered vehicles are registered in Kuala Lumpur, which rank the highest total of vehicle ownership. Whereas, Johor reached the second highest rate with 14 % of the whole. And, the study area of this study is located in the capital of Johor state. To highlight the rapid growth of vehicle ownership in Malaysia, the total numbers of motor vehicle registrations from year 1987 to 1996 are tabulated in Table 2.2.

20 Table 2.2: Motor Vehicle Registration Malaysia from 1987 1996 Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Compounded Growth (%) Source: Highway Planning Unit, 1996 Total 4,600,384 4,782,916 5,071,786 5,462,778 5,887,176 6,295,508 6,712,479 7,210,089 6,802,375 7,686,684 5.95

2.6 Development of Trip Generation Data in Malaysia

As mentioned earlier, in Malaysia, the first documentation relevant to trip generation data is the Trip Generation Study (Pilot Study) conducted by the Highway Planning Unit of Public Works Department Malaysia. Prior to the Trip Generation Pilot Study, there was no widely accepted single source of land-use specific trip generation rates. Generally, the traffic planners will conduct their own trip generation studies. Nevertheless, these information gathered are neither documented nor shared among the professionals. This leads to concern about the validity of the trip generation that was used or the procedures used to develop the trip rate. Without standard procedures and proper documentation of results, it may create problems such as unverified trip rates, application of trip rates based on older or inadequate trip generation rate which may not valid for an application of trip rates that sources are rarely disclosed in a traffic study. The above issues brought to the establishment of the Trip Generation Pilot Study by the Highway Planning Unit of Public Works Department Malaysia. A slightly different approach was taken to incorporate in the study since some weaknesses have been noted and experienced in the ITE Trip Generation. The Trip

21 Generation Pilot Study of Malaysia endeavoured to address the question of geographical differences, differences in economic and social conditions between regions, vehicle classification and vehicle occupancy counts as cited in the above discussion. The peak period definition also was expended to two-three-hour periods, in recognition of the extended peak hours in Kuala Lumpur region. Substantial differences should be expected in trip generation rates between countries. Hence, the main objective of the Trip Generation Pilot Study is to gather a large trip generation database, which would be accepted by the public and even private sectors, for use particularly in Malaysia (Highway Planning Unit, 1997b).

2.7 Transport Studies Associated with University Campus

Corporate campuses of the 21st century, once traditionally suburban settings, are being transformed. Across America, corporate campuses are gaining favour as companies seek to reduce expenses by downsizing their big-city offices in favour of less-expensive real estate in the suburban (www.vtpi.org, 2002). The Victoria Transport Policy Institute in Canada has carried out studies on Campus Transport Management namely Trip Reduction Programs on College, University and Research Campuses. Campus Transport Management programs are coordinated efforts to improve transportation options and reduce trips at colleges, universities and other campus facilities. According to their studies, Transportation Demand Management (TDM) tends to be particularly effective and appropriate in such settings. It is often more cost effective than other solutions to local traffic and parking problems, and students and employees often value having improved transportation choices. Transportation Demand Management (TDM) is a general term for strategies that result in more efficient use of transportation resources. There are many different

22 TDM strategies with a variety of impacts. Some improve the transportation options available to consumers, while others provide an incentive to choose more efficient travel patterns. Some reduce the need for physical travel through mobility substitutes or more efficient land use. TDM strategies can change travel timing, route, destination or mode. TDM is recently becoming common response to transport problems. Brown, et al. (1998), have summarized that there is an increasing in number of colleges and universities offer free or significantly discounted transit passes to students and sometimes staff which is called as UPASS. According to them, students voted overwhelmingly to support many of these programs, even though it increases their fees. Other than UPASS programs in North America, some campuses use vehicle restrictions and regulations to limit automobile use. For instance, some colleges do not provide parking permits to freshmen who live in campus. This action not only manages to reduce the automobile use, but also encourages students to become more active in campus activities and discourages them from taking jobs to finance a car. These campus TDM programs are often implemented by facility managers and administrators to address a particular problem, such as a parking shortage or traffic congestion on nearby streets. Some are initiated by student groups to improve their travel options and achieve environmental or community goals. For example, UPASS programs often require students to approve a special levy to fund universal transit passes. Student and employee organizations are often involved in program planning and management. Summary from the studies shows that campus TDM programs often reduce automobile trips by 10 30 %. A program at the University of WisconsinMilwaukee reduced student driving by 26 % (Meyer and Beimborn, 1996). A University of Washington program reduced total vehicle trips to campus by 16 % during its first year of operation (Williams and Petrait, 1993). By the year 1998, the morning vehicle trips to the University of Washington campus decreased 19 percent over year 1990 levels, despite growth in the campus population.

23

Poinsatte and Toor (1999) pointed out that the University of Colorado ski bus program provides students and staff with access to downhill ski areas. It was established in 1996 and is jointly funded by the ski resorts, ticket sales and student bus pass fees. The program has proven quite popular that during its first two years all buses were sold out. Some students reported that it allows them to live in campus without a car. Standard university in Palo Alto, California planned to expand capacity by 25 %, adding more than 2.3 million square feet of research and teaching buildings, public facilities and housing without increasing the peak period vehicle traffic. By year 2000, 1.7 million square feet of new buildings had been developed while automobile commute trips were reduced by 500 per day! To accomplish this, the campus transportation management plan involves a 1.5 mile transit mall, free transit system with timed transfers to regional rail, bicycle network, cash-out staff parking, ridesharing program and other transportation demand management elements. By using this approach the campus was able to add $ 500 million in new projects with minimal planning or environment review required for individual projects. The campus also avoided significant parking and roadway costs. Planners calculate that the University saves nearly $ 2,000 annually for every commuter shifted out of a car and into another mode. This also reduced regional agency traffic planning costs. It also brings public benefits which included decreased congestion and improved safety on surrounding roadways and the regional traffic system, reduced pollution and improved local transit options (www.stanford.edu, 2002). All the above examples show that most of the universities see public transport as a key factor in securing real choice in the way the community travels to and from study, work and leisure. It recommends measures to discourage car use in favour of alternative modes of transport. They have to work with the local authority and local public transport providers to make sure that the service to the campus community is as good as it can be. However, before any plan can be scheduled, traffic and transport study such as trip generation should be carried out to ascertain the existing traffic condition.

24

2.8 Summary

In this study, the case study done in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai is a microscopic traffic study. In most of the macroscopic traffic studies, a university campus is normally only considered as an independent landuse. Trip generation rate of universities or colleges obtained from macroscopic traffic studies with university or college as an independent landuse is generally for the purpose of forecasting the total trips expected to be generated if a new university or college is to be built or upgrading of any college in certain site. However, in this study, the main purpose of study is to determine the trip generation involving the internal route network to the center of the campus where the administration office, library, mosque and academic area locate. Therefore, the university itself will no longer be a land use as a whole, but will be subdivided into many zones of different landuses. Following the analyses, with a better knowledge of existing traffic conditions in the campus, planning of alternative traffic and transportation system or new relevant policies would be allowed. The details of methodology of this microscopic traffic study were described in the following chapter, Chapter 3 and the findings were presented in Chapter 4 followed by the concluding remarks in Chapter 5.

CHAPTER 3

25

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1

Introduction

For the purpose of this study, trip is defined as a journey made by a student or staff from their accommodations to the academic and administration centers of the campus or vice versa. Trip generation is the total number of trips made in one direction to or from defined location (inbound or outbound) over a given period of time. Peak hour is the highest one and a half hour flow of traffic during a defined period. In the campus-traffic study, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia is selected as the study area. One of the main reasons is an excellent environment for implementing various transportation policies in the campus is provided. Furthermore, it is the largest university among 19 universities in Malaysia with approximately 30,000 populations attending the main campus almost everyday. The detail descriptions of the study area are discussed in the following section. The process of completing this study involves a series of steps, which could be categorized into four basic approaches namely data collection, survey, analysis and model building. This chapter will discuss in sequence regarding the detail methodology and procedures applied in achieving the objectives of this study as the following:i) ii) iii) data collection; survey procedures; analysis of data;

26 iv) trip generation estimation methods.

3.2

Study Area

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, which located in Skudai, is one of the largest universities among 19 universities in Malaysia with approximately 28,000 students and 3,500 staffs attending the main campus. A brief historical background of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia should be introduced before any assessment or planning being carry out to provide a better overview. Basically, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia comes from Institut Teknologi Kebangsaan (ITK). Institut Teknologi Kebangsaan was established on 14th of March 1972. ITK was formed to provide, promote and develop higher education in the field of science, engineering, technology and architecture. The establishment of ITK was based on the upgrading of Technical College at Jalan Gurney, Kuala Lumpur, in line with the recommendation of the Higher Education Planning Committee in 1969. The beginning of Technical School, which was later, upgraded to college level in1946. Institut Teknologi Kebangsaan that was of university status was later renamed Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) on 1st April 1975. The whole idea of the industry of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia as a technological institution began when a philanthropist bestowed a grant of $ 30,000.00 for the establishment of a technical school in Kuala Lumpur to meet the needs, due to the rapid construction of cart-roads and railway lines was undertaken to replace the navigated rivers between 10 to 15 miles from the Straits of Malacca, after the opening of the Federation of Malay States and the Straits Settlement as economic centers especially in the tin industry in the early 1900 (http://www.utm.my/, 2002). Currently, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia has three campuses, namely the 1,222-hectare main campus in Skudai, Johor; the 18-hectare branch campus at Jalan Semarak, Kuala Lumpur and 400 hectare branch campus at Pekan, Pahang. The first

27 phase of campus construction in Skudai was completed in mid 1985. The first academic session in the new campus started with the transfer of the Faculty of Built Environment and Faculty of Surveying. With the transfer of Mechanical Engineering, Civil Engineering and Electrical Engineering faculties to the Skudai Campus during the 1989/90 sessions, the Skudai Campus became main campus while the campus at Jalan Semarak, Kuala Lumpur became the branch campus. The continued growth of the countries economy especially in the field of technology, engineering and other developments consequently increased the needs of experts in the respective fields. With these growths, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia has been expending in the aspect of population, premises, facilities and infrastructures which including the traffic and transportation networks. Currently, there are ten faculties specializing in various fields of study in science, technology and management which include Faculty of Built Environment, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Chemical and Natural Resource Engineering, Faculty of Science, Faculty of Computer Science and Information System, Faculty of Education, Faculty of Management and Human Resource Development and Faculty of Geoinformation Science and Engineering. Hence, the problems of transport would definitely increase as the population is growing up rapidly.

3.2.1

Accessibility, Traffic and Transportation System of the Campus

The main campus of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in Skudai, is located about 18 kilometers from the city of Johor Bahru, and 14 kilometers from the Sultan Ismail Airport. It is easily accessible by air, road and rail. There are regular flights

28 from Johor Airport connect the state capital with Kuala Lumpur. Transportation services at the airport are also readily available. Taxis and air-conditioned coaches are a popular and cheap means of transport to and from Johor Bahru to other cities in the Peninsular Malaysia. Furthermore, Malayan Railway (KTM) also offers train services connecting Singapore and other states in Malaysia through Johor Bahru station. As mentioned earlier, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia is the largest university in Malaysia with approximately 28,000 students attending the main campus. Nevertheless, only approximately 10,700 students live in the campus and the remainder of students and staffs live in off-campus housing or hostel. There is a University Transit System operates bus services from 7:00 a.m. to 11:30 p.m. throughout the academic year except during public holiday and semester breaks providing transportation throughout the Skudai campus and nearby residential areas. The schedules and routes of campus-bus services are tabulated in Appendix A. Generally, more trips are operated during the morning, afternoon and evening peak hours especially in the campus compare to off-campus private residential area. Only few trips are provided during the non-peak hours. All services are actually funded by a semester fee paid by every student. Nevertheless, majority of UTM students either drive or ride motorcycles to the campus. staffs near their faculties. Many of the students park their vehicles illegally at the periphery curbsides or parking lots designed meant for the This massive influx of trips into a relatively concentrated area has created unique transportation challenges. The recent solution to the problem of transporting students to and from the periphery lots is the fixed-route campus bus system. This case study generally aims to present implications for transportation alternatives or policies at university campuses. 3.3 Data Collection

29 The process of data collection is very subjective as the results of analysis are very depending on the data sources, survey operations and even the sampling considerations. In the stage of data collection, there are two kinds of data required. The first activity is to obtain all the relevant land uses, numbers of population and existing traffic and transportation inventories and the second step is to carry out survey (interview) to determine the existing traffic distribution, which will be discussed in the later section.

3.3.1

Existing Inventories

This section involved the data collection from the relevant departments of the university which including the total numbers of populations, the area of accommodations of the populations, the capacities of the hostels in and off the campus, the landuses and the locations in the campus, the existing traffic and transportation networks and the established policies which related to traffic and transportation system of the campus. The boundary line, landuses and route networks of the study area gathered from the Development-Planning Unit (Harta Bina) are rearranged in Figure 3.1 in Appendix B. The total numbers of student enrolled from semester 2000/2001 to 2002/2003 and the forecast enrolment of students from semester 2003/2004 to 2009/2010 are tabulated in Table 3.1 in Appendix C. These data are provided by the Enrolment and Record Unit ( Unit Kemasukan dan Rekod). The existing total numbers of staffs according to the departments are tabulated in Table 3.2 in Appendix C. The source of data is from the Recruitment Unit of the Registrar Office ( Unit Perjawatan, Pejabat Pendaftar). The information regarding the tabulation and the numbers of occupants of all the hostels that prepared by the Student Affair Department (Hal Ehwal Pelajar) are

30 summarized in Table 3.3 in Appendix C. However, the tabulation of the students staying in the off-campus private residential areas is unknown. Therefore, the percentages of students staying in different residential areas are mainly based on the results of survey done in Zone 1. Whereas, the tabulation of the staffs in different residential areas are based solely on the proportionate of the information printed in the Staffs Guideline for Faculty of Civil Engineering (Panduan Staf Fakulti Kejuruteraan Awam) to the information gathered from the relevant department as tabulated in Table 3.2 in Appendix C.

3.4

Survey Procedures

This initial stage is the most essential part of any transportation planning. The first step in any analysis unavoidably involves collection of data, which also including field surveys other than obtaining supporting data or inventory such as land use information discussed in the formal section. The field survey incorporated in this study is the origin and destination (O & D) interview surveying. The procedures employed in the interview surveying process will be elaborated in this section.

3.4.1

Zoning System

A zoning system is used to aggregate the individual premises into manageable chunks for modeling purposes. The main two dimensions of a zoning system, which are related, are the number of zones and their size. The greater the number of zones, the smaller they can be to cover the same study area.

31 The first element in this section is the definition of the area to be studied in detail. Large-scale studies such as Klang Valley Traffic Survey would need to describe travel over a whole conurbation and concern with the traffic distribution expected to use the more important strategic transport facilities such as motorways, major through routes, commuter and light rail traffic. However, smaller-scale studies, such as traffic and transport study in the campus of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, can describe travel in considerably more detail. Prior to any setting up of zones, a cordon line representing the boundary of the study area must be established. The first choice in establishing a zoning system is to distinguish the study area itself from the rest of the world. For the purpose of this study, the cordon line set for this study includes the whole land area within the boundary of the UTM campus and the periphery residential area as shown representatively in Figure 3.1 in Appendix B. After the delineation of a survey area, the study area is divided into analysis units that normally called traffic analysis zones, which form the basis for the analysis of travel movements within, into and out of region. The primary purpose of selecting zones is to permit summarizing, within reasonably small area, the origin and destinations of traffic. Normally the zones are numbered and all trips with origins or destinations within a zone are assumed to begin or end at the centroid of those zones. Care must be taken to select zones so that there are not so many of them to render analysis cumbersome. On the other hand, too few zones will give an unrealistic grouping of trip ends and perhaps lead to erroneous conclusions. The size of a zone will be governed by the size of the survey area, density of population and purpose of the study. Primarily, the division of the zoning area are defined with several predetermined criteria in mind, which had been set as the requirement of the zoning system:i) Zoning size must be such that the aggregation error caused by the assumption that all activities are concentrated at the centroid is not too large; ii) iii) Zones should be as homogeneous as possible in their land use; Zone boundaries must be compatible with cordon line;

32 iv) v) vi) vii) The shape of the zones should allow an easy determination of their centroid connectors; Zones do not have to be of equal size; Minimizing the number of intrazonal trips; Generating only connected zones and avoiding zones that are completely contained within another zone. In this study, the study area is divided into fourteen small zones with very clear definition of land use, according to the criteria discussed above. Based on Figure 3.1 in Appendix B, the fourteen zones can be defined as in Table 3.4 in the following. Generally, Zone 1 is the administrative center that could be assumed as part of the CBD, Zone 2 to 6 are academic areas that could be also assumed as part of the CBD and the rest of the zones are residential area. This traffic study aims to determine the peak hour trip generated and attracted by the students and the staffs from or to their home to or from their faculty or office. Hence, the travel patterns to be investigated are from Zone 7 - 14 to Zone 1 - 6 or from Zone 1 - 6 to Zone 7 - 14. As the defining of each zone is clear, Origin and Destination (O& D) interview survey could be planned.

Table 3.4 : Description of Small Traffic Analysis Zones

33
Zone No. Zone 1 Description This zone could be considered as the CBD of the campus. It includes the Sultanah Zakariah Library (PSZ), Sultan Ismail Mosque, administrative office, Sultan Iskandar Hall (DSI) and Student Union Building (SUB), which also provides with kinds of services such as bank, cafeteria, Photostat center, Zone 2 Zone 3 post-office and bookshop. Combination of three faculties : Faculty of Built Environment, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Faculty of Geoinformation Science and Engineering. Combination of four faculties : Faculty of Science, Faculty of Mechanical, Faculty of Education and Faculty of Management and Human Resources Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Development. Faculty of Computer Science and Information System. Faculty of Chemical and Natural Resources Engineering. Faculty of Electrical Engineering. Student Hostel within campus named Kolej Tuanku Canselor. Student Hostels within campus named Kolej Rahman Putra, Kolej Tun Fatimah and Staff Quarters named Desa Bakti 1, Desa Bakti 2 and Desa Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Bakti 3. Student Hostels within campus named Kolej Tun Razak and Kolej Tun Hussein Onn. Student Hostel within campus named Kolej Tun Dr. Ismail. Off-campus housing area : Taman Sri Pulai, Taman Teratai, Kangkar Pulai, Pontian, Pekan Nanas. Off-campus housing area : Taman Universiti, Taman Pulai Utama, Gelang Patah. Combination of off-campus housing area : Taman Desa Skudai and offcampus student hostel: Kolej Siswa Desa Skudai. Off-campus housing area : Taman Sri Putri, Taman Sri Skudai, Taman Tun Aminah, Taman Skudai Baru, Taman Bukit Indah, Taman Mutiara Rini, Senai, Kulai and those housing area from the direction of Johor Bahru which connected to Jalan Skudai to access to campus of UTM.

3.4.2

Origin and Destination Interview Survey

The origin and destination (O & D) study establishes a measure of the patterns of movement of vehicles and passenger within a particular area of interest

34 from various zones of origin to various zones of destination. This kind of study estimates the travel characteristics observed for a typical day or a period of time. The O & D study yields information regarding origins and destinations of trips, times of day in which trips are made and mode of travel. In more comprehensive studies additional data is obtained. This includes trips purposes, land use at the beginning or end of the trip and background social and economic data on the one making the trip. However, it is assumed to be a special case for the study in campus UTM where the background social and economic data on the trip maker are not extremely important. O & D data enable the study to determine:i) ii) iii) iv) Travel demand on existing traffic and transportation facilities; The adequacy of existing traffic and transportation facilities; The information needed for planning, location and designing new or improved either street or transportation or both system; Travel characteristics from various types of land use.

Most O & D surveys begin with the delineation of a survey area as discussed earlier. Procedures for making origin and destination surveys are many and varied. The method selected for collection of the O & D information will be determined by data needs balanced against personnel, budget and time limitations. O & D Home Interview Survey will be conducted for this study. This method provides the most comprehensive procedure for obtaining travel characteristics within a study area. Representative samples of the population are selected and personal interviews are conducted to obtain travel characteristics for the person by all modes of transportation for the previous day. Initially, those specific data that are relevant for the purpose of the survey such as land use inventory, population inventory, classification of population (students or staffs), existing traffic and transportation and existing policy have to be identified. In this case, land use of each zone is very clear as defined earlier. And, the numbers of population for each zone are summarized in the following Table 3.5.

35 Table 3.5 : Population of Each Zone Zone No. Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Student 2408 3223 2392 2702 511 11118 5509 306 Staff 50 158 75 43 861 810 230 1359 Total 2458 3381 2467 2745 1372 11928 5739 1665

3.4.3

Questionnaire Design

Normally the order in which the questions are asked seeks to minimize resistance on the part of the interviewee. For this reason, whenever possible, difficult questions are formulated at the end of the interview. In terms of its formal aspect, the questionnaire and the interview itself, should try to satisfy the following objectives:i) ii) iii) the questions should be simple and direct; the number of open questions should be minimized; the information about travel must be elicited with reference to the activities which originated the trips. In this study, O & D interview survey has two distinct sections: personal characteristics and identification and trip data. In the first part of personal characteristics and identification, questions designed to classify the population according to the following aspects are included: gender, staffs or students, department or faculty of work or study attached to, place of accommodation and travel mode used. In order to reduce the possibility of subjective classification, it is important to define a complete set of choices. The second part of survey, trip data survey, aims at detecting and characterizing all trips made by the population

36 identified in the first part. A trip is usually defined as any movement from an origin to a destination with a given purpose. Samples of the survey forms that were utilized are attached in Appendix D of this report.

3.4.4

Sampling Procedure

Travel is an expression of an individuals behaviour and as such it has the characteristics of being habitual. As a habit it tends to be repetitive and the repetition occurs in a definite pattern. In addition, travel habits of different individuals are similar for work, schooling, shopping and other types of trips. Therefore, it is not necessary to obtain travel information from all residents of the area under study since the travel characteristics could be exhibited by the patterns of movement. Statistical methods can be used with confidence for the sampling of movement (Bruton, 1985). To ensure that a sample is representative it is necessary that the persons included in it, are distributed geographically throughout the survey area in the same proportion as the distribution of the total population. The size of sample to be interviewed depends upon the total population of the area under study, the degree of accuracy required and the density of population. The development of a sampling plan basically also involved estimating the available manpower considering the budget constraints, availability of enumerators and the duration of the survey. Table 3.6 shows the values, which have been postulated as recommended practice for more than 20 years (Ortuzar and Willumsen, 1990).

Table 3.6 : Sample sizes recommended in traditional surveys Population of area Under 50,000 50,000 150,000 150,000 300,000 Sample size Recommended 1 in 5 1 in 8 1 in 10 Minimum 1 in 10 1 in 20 1 in 35

37 300,000 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 Over 1,000,000 1 in 15 1 in 20 1 in 25 1 in 50 1 in 70 1 in 100

In this study, simple random sampling method is used. This method consists in first associating an identifier (numbers) to each unit in the population and then selecting these numbers at random to obtain the sample. Nevertheless, due to the limitation of manpower and time constraint, only 70 % of the minimum sample size required according to Table 3.6 above, based on the population proportion of each different zone, will be interviewed. Hence, if n represents the sample size of each zone,
0.35 * Pop. 10

n=

with Pop. representing the population of the entire zone. The interviews then will be conducted randomly over each zone. In order to ensure a good recollection of events the survey should ask for information about the previous day. And due to the main objective is to obtain data for a typical working or schooling day, it is often to rule out collecting data about Mondays and Fridays. Whereas Wednesday is selected as the co-curriculum day of UTM students, so it should be also avoided. For this reasons, the best days to carry out the interviews are Wednesdays and Fridays. With respect to survey times, the best results for home (hostel) surveys are obtained at the period of the day where the probability of finding the students at their hostels is highest, which falls between 18:00 and 21:00 hours. On the other hand, for workplace (staff) surveys, the best times are, of course, the normal working hours, 08:00 to 16:30 hours. On the other hand, for those students who are not staying in the hostel but in private residential area, samples are taken randomly in the CBD of the campus (Zone 1) throughout the whole day, 08:00 to 22:00.

38 3.5 Analysis of Data

The analysis of data in a trip generation study concentrates on the summary of the data and the estimation of parameters. The steps in the process of analysis in this study are as the following:i) Observe the data collected. Following that, the raw data are entered into computer media storage according to certain classifications or characteristics. Then, the data entry process are checked again and verified to spot for any possible error occurs so that maintains the accuracy of the entry process. ii) iii) The peak hour data from all the observations are added up to provide total trips. The other information and data gathered from the interview surveys such as the numbers of students, staffs, total population, vehicle ownerships or the mode used are also cumulated and observed in detail. iv) v) The trips generated are analysed for any possible relationship against independent variables. Linear regression on the chosen independent variable is carried out to estimate the linear relationship and to test the goodness of fit using R2. The closer the R2 to the value of 1, the linear model is more satisfactory. vi) The same process is repeated for various independent variables in terms of individual linear regressions.

3.6

Methodologies in Trip Generation Estimation

39 Based on the literature review from the Trip Generation (ITE, 1991), Malaysia Trip Generation Pilot Study (Highway Planning Unit, 1997a) and the study of Ravi Shankar (1999), there are generally three methodologies which can be incorporated in this study in determining the average number of trip generated by a land use:i) ii) Weighted average trip generation rate or the number of weighted trip ends per one unit of the independent variable. A plot of actual trips versus the size of the independent variable for each study. The numbers represented on the plots are actual trips plotted against the size of an independent variable. iii) Regression equation of trips related to the size of the independent variable. The calculations presented in the following are from the methodology adopted in the Trip Generation Pilot Study of Malaysia (Highway Planning Unit, 1997a). The assumptions used in estimation of trip generation rates are either homogeneous variance for the ys, (2) or homogeneous variance for the tripgenerating unit, w2. The latter assumption is intuitively more appealing. However, if the range of value of the xs is not too large, say from one end to the other by a factor less than 5, there is no harm in assuming the ys have homogeneous variance 2. this assumption will simplify computation, especially of 2. In this study, the assumption used is that the ys have homogeneous variance 2. for the purpose of standardisation of notation, let the number of sites chosen for the study be n, the trips generated at each site be yi and the corresponding independent variable be xi, for i = 1, 2, n. The methods of estimation of the trip generation rate used in this study will be described in the following. Besides, the estimation of the variance and standard deviation of these trip generation estimates will be also be discussed.

40 3.6.1 Simple Average of Mean

According to Trip Generation Pilot Study (Highway Planning Unit, 1997a), for each site, i, the trip rate ri can be obtained by:
yi x

ri =

for i = 1, 2, ..n.

The simple average or mean of these ris is given by:

1 n 1 n yi r = i n n i =1 i =1 xi

R=

.(1)

The variance, V, of the estimate, R, depends on the variance of the yis. If we assume that all the yis have equal variance, 2, the variance of R is given by:

2 V = Var ( R) = 2 n

(x
i =1

1
2 i

..(2)

The trip generation rate, Ri, can be computed easily from the available data y and x according to equation (1). However, for the computation of the variance and standard deviation of R, given by equation (2), there is a need to estimate 2 first. This can be obtained from the yis, i = 1, 2, n by computing the following:
( y i ) 2 n

=
2

{ y i
2 i =1

.(3)

n 1

The standard deviation is just the square foot of the above quantity. In the linear regression situation where the ys is assumed distributed with constant variance 2 about the linear model, 2 is estimated by the following:

41

2 =

Residual Sum of Squares Degree of Freedom

( y
i =1

x c ) 2 b i n2

.(4)

when the linear regression is with intercept.

3.6.2

Linear Regression with Intercept

If we assume that the relationship between the y and x variables is linear of x+ c is the slope of the line and c where b , the intercept, the least the form y = b and c are as follows (Highway Planning Unit, 1997a): squares estimates of b

= b

x y
i =1 i

x y
i

x
&

2 i

n ( xi ) 2 n

(5)

x = y b c

.(6)

and c are as follows: The variance of b

2
i

) = Var (b

( x

x)2

.(7)

where 2 is the variance of the yis, assuming homogeneity.

42

) = Var (c

n ( xi x ) 2

2 xi

.(8)

When the linear model is accepted, the interest is on predicting the trips generated
k for any given xk. y

The predicted value of yk is given by:

x + c k =b y k

.(9)

( xk x ) 2 2 1 Var ( y ) = { + } & k n ( xi x ) 2

..(10)

An indication of the goodness of fit of the linear model is given by R-squared (R2) where it is defined as: R2 = Sum of Squares due to regression Total Sum of Squares, corrected for mean

.(11)

If R2 is close to the value 1, then the linear model is satisfactory. The above results assume that each of the ys have the same variance, 2.

3.6.3

Principles of Trip Generation Regression Model Building

In developing regression equations it is assumed that (Salter, 1976):i) ii) iii) All the independent variables are independent of each other. All the independent variables are normally distributed. The independent variables are continuous.

43 It is usual to compute the following statistical values to test the goodness of fit of the regression equation:i) Simple correlation coefficient, r, which is computed for two variables and measures the association between them. As r varies from -1 to +1 it indicates the correlation between the variables. A value approaching 1 indicates good correlation. ii) Multiple correlation coefficient, R, which measures the goodness of fit between the regression estimates and the observed data. 100R2 give the percentage of variation explained by the regression. Nevertheless, linear regression equation unavoidable also has some limitation. It is important to recognize that the regression process contains the likelihood of the future values of the dependent variables Y being in error when future values of the independent variables X1, X2, etc., are substituted into the equation. The likely sources of error may be stated to be: i) ii) errors in the determination of the existing values of the independent variables owing to inaccuracy or bias in the transportation survey; the assumption that the regression of the dependent variable on the independent variables is linear, a matter of some importance when future values of the independent variables are outside the range of observed values; iii) iv) errors in the regression obtained owing to the scatter of the individual values and the inadequacy of the data; difficulties in the prediction of future values of the independent variables; for the future value of the dependent variable will only be as good as the future estimates of the independent variables; v) vi) future values of the independent variable will be scattered as are the present values; the true regression equation may vary with time because factors that exert an influence on trip-making in the future are not included in the present-day regression equation.

44

CHAPTER 4

ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

4.1 Introduction

In this study, the estimations of trip generation for Universiti Teknologi Malaysia are based on two peak periods in terms of two different kinds of independent variables. The first trip generation analysis was conducted in terms of numbers of students, numbers of staffs and total numbers of population as the

45 independent variables for morning peak traffic hours (AM peak) and evening peak traffic hours (PM peak). The second trip generation analysis was again subdivided into two separate analysis in terms of the vehicle ownerships / modes of travel. One was from the zones with the land use of residential for the students and the staffs located in the compound of the campus (Zone 7, 8, 9 and 10) heading to the zones of land use for academic and administration facilities such as lecture halls in faculties, administration offices, library and so on (Zone 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6). While, the other one was from the zones with the land use of residential for the students and the staffs located off the campus (Zone 11, 12, 13 and 14) heading to the zones of land use for academic and administration facilities such as lecture halls in faculties, administration offices, library and so on (Zone 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6). The significance of the results of the analyses are then discussed and interpreted individually and also compared within one another from statistical point of view based on single independent variable. The diagrams showing the travel movements for the above two analyses are presented in Figure 4.1 in Appendix E and summarized in Figure 4.2 in Appendix E. The duration of peak hours are estimated from the interview surveys done as discussed in Chapter 3. According to those surveys, the AM and PM peaks occur between 7:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. respectively. Microsoft Excel in Microsoft Office Package is used to carry out the analyses. For each key traffic hour of each group of analyses as mentioned above, two methods are provided for estimating trip generation rates. The first is a weighted average trip generation rates and the second is a regression-derived linear equation. The weight average trip generation rates were checked in terms of standard deviation. The smaller the standard deviation, the more compact the curves peak. This reflects that most of the related zones in a single analysis have trip generation values close to the average rate. The regression-derived linear equation provide an equation, which could be used to forecast the volume of total trip produced or attracted by the centers of the campus (academic and administrative zones) in terms of an independent variable. The independent variables in this study are numbers of students, numbers of staffs,

46 total numbers of population, the vehicle ownerships or modes used by the students and staffs to travel. The regression equation of trip generation was examined by the coefficient of determination, R2. This R2 tells about how well the trip generation equation matches the survey data points. R2 values approaching 1 show a good fit while values approaching zero reflect poor representative.

4.2

Selection of Independent Variables

In the macroscopic traffic study with university as an independent landuse, the independent variables that are normally incorporated in the regression equation of trip generation are total numbers of student enrolment, total numbers of employees recruited and sometime the gross floor area, gross leasable area and parking space provided. Nevertheless, in this microscopic traffic study meant for Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, the main idea is to establish the trip generation from the incampus or off-campus residential areas to the center of the campus by the students and employees. The significance influence from the numbers of students, staffs, total numbers of population of each residential zone and the significance use of modes of travel are observed from the results of analyses. This is importance to predict the traffic condition if certain policy is to be introduced. For instance, if all the hostels are to be moved into the compound of campus, will this new policy benefit or worsen the traffic conditions? Therefore, in this study, the numbers of students, numbers of staffs, total numbers of population and choices of mode used for travelling (bicycle, motorcycle, car / van, UTM bus and walking) were selected to be the independent variables.

4.3

Trip Generation In Terms of Numbers of Population

47

This part of analyses is calculated based on the trip generated by the population staying in the eight zones of residential area located both in and off the compound of the campus (Zone 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14) and are subdivided into smaller analyses as the following: i) ii) iii) iv) v) vi) AM peak trip generation in terms of numbers of students; PM peak trip generation in terms of numbers of students; AM peak trip generation in terms of numbers of staffs; PM peak trip generation in terms of numbers of staffs; AM peak trip generation in terms of total numbers of population; PM peak trip generation in terms of total numbers of population;

The observed trip generation collected from the relevant zones for the morning and evening peaks (AM peak and PM peak) and total units of independent variable are tabulated in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1: Observed Peak Hours Trip Generation Volumes by The Number of Population
Zone Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Observed Peak Hours Trip Generation AM Peak PM Peak Staff Students Staffs Total Students Total s 70 2 72 52 2 54 70 6 76 59 6 65 80 3 83 79 3 82 86 2 88 75 2 77 11 30 41 8 30 38 242 27 269 134 25 159 87 8 95 77 7 84 6 47 53 3 34 37 Numbers of Population Students 84 112 84 95 18 389 193 11 Staffs 2 6 3 2 30 28 8 48 Total 86 118 87 97 48 417 201 59

In every analysis (i) to (vi) above, the first step is to carry out the examination of correlation between the independent variables to the trip generation during the both peak hours. Following that, if the independent variable carried high degree of correlation, value greater than 0.5, the observed trip generation are continued with

48 analyses for the weighted average trip generation rates and linear regression equation. The correlation matrix between each independent variable (numbers of students, numbers of staffs, total numbers of population) and the observed trip generated during the AM and PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2: Correlation Matrix for AM and PM Peak Hour Trip Generation and Number of Population Independent Variabl e Numbers of Students Correlation Matrix AM Peak PM Peak

No. of Students No. of Students Trips by Student 1 0.965408902

Trips by Studen t 1

No. of Students No. of Students Trips by Student 1 0.892595845

Trips by Studen t 1

Numbers of Staffs

No. of Staffs No. of Staffs Trips by Staff 1 0.999859466

Trips by Staff 1 No. of Staffs Trips by Staff

No. of Staffs 1 0.978186751

Trips by Staff 1

49 Total Numbers of Population

Total Pop. Total Pop. Total Trips 1 0.999859466

Total Trips 1 Total Pop. Total Trips

Total Pop. 1 0.999859466

Total Trips 1

With reference to Table 4.2, all the correlation analyses shown high degree of correlation. Therefore, the further analyses for the weighted average trip generation rates and linear regression equations are conducted for all the independent variables based on the following Table 4.3 which shown the trips per independent variable during AM and PM peak hour and data tabulated in Table 4.1 respectively.

Table 4.3: Trips per Independent Variable of Number of Population

Zone Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 AM Peak Trips per Staffs 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.96 1.00 0.98 Trips per Independent Variable PM Peak Trips per Trips per Trips per Total Pop. 0.84 0.64 0.95 0.91 0.85 0.65 0.47 0.90 Students 0.62 0.53 0.94 0.79 0.44 0.34 0.40 0.27 Staffs 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.89 0.88 0.71

Trips per Students 0.83 0.63 0.95 0.91 0.61 0.62 0.45 0.55

Trips per Total Pop. 0.63 0.55 0.94 0.79 0.79 0.38 0.42 0.63

From Table 4.3 and Table 4.1, the summary of trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the linear regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.4.

50

Table 4.4 :

Peak Hour Weighted Average Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations in Terms of Numbers of Students, Numbers of Staffs and Total Numbers of Population

Independent Variable

Trip Generation Rates and Equations

51
AM Peak Hour Trips per Students Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Students Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Staffs Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Staffs Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Total Population Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Total Population Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=0.69 (X) 0.99 T=0.576 (X) + 10.487 0.93 T=0.54 (X) 0.57 T=0.309 (X) + 22.793 0.80 T=0.99 (X) 1.71 T=0.979 (X) + 0.086 0.99 T=0.93 (X) 1.38 T=0.771 (X) + 1.385 0.96

T=0.78 (X) 0.31 T=0.572 (X) + 17.596 0.94

T=0.64 (X) 0.17 T=0.301 (X) + 32.582 0.89

From the results of analyses summarized in Table 4.4, it is obvious that all the relationships presented good representation in estimating trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 values approaching 1 and small values of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the relationships shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.3 to 4.8 in Appendix F.

52

4.4

In-Campus Peak Hours Vehicle Trip Generation

This portion of analyses is calculated based on the trip generated by the four zones of residential located in the compound of the campus (Zone 7, 8, 9 and 10) and are again subdivided into small analyses as the following: vii) viii) ix) x) xi) xii) AM peak trip generation by in-campus students; AM peak trip generation by in-campus staffs; AM peak trip generation by in-campus population (students and staffs); PM peak trip generation by in-campus students; PM peak trip generation by in-campus staffs; PM peak trip generation by in-campus population (students and staffs); It takes the modes owned by or used by the students and the staffs such as bicycle (X1), motorcycle (X2), car / van (X3), UTM bus (X4) and walking (X5) as the independent variables as explained in Chapter 3. The observed trip generation collected from the relevant zones in-campus for the morning and evening peaks (AM peak and PM peak) are tabulated in Table 4.5.

Table 4.5: Observed Peak Hours Trip Generation In-Campus Observed Peak Hours Trip Generation Zone AM Peak PM Peak Students Staffs* Total Students Staffs* Zone 7 70 27 72 52 26 Zone 8 70 85 76 59 81 Zone 9 80 41 83 79 39 Zone 10 86 24 88 75 24 * Sample size has been enlarged for better results.

Total 54 65 82 77

53

In every analysis (i) to (vi) above, the first step is to carry out the examination of correlation between the independent variables to the vehicle trip generation during the both peak hours. Following that, those independent variables carried high degree of correlation, value greater than 0.5, to the observed trip generation are chosen to continue with analyses for the weighted average trip generation and regression equation.

4.4.1

Analysis of the AM Peak Hours Traffic by In-Campus Students

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the students staying in-campus during the AM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6: Correlation Matrix for AM Peak Hour Trips by In-Campus Students In-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 -0.520 0.957 0.352 -0.178 -0.015 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -0.720 -0.574 0.837 -0.508

1.000 0.559 -0.340 0.043

1.000 -0.089 -0.380

1.000 -0.887

1.000

With reference to Table 4.6, the Bicycle and Motorcycle have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the students staying in the campus during the AM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression

54 equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Bicycle and Motorcycle. The total observed AM peak hour trip generated by the students staying in the campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.7.

Table 4.7: Trips Generated during AM Peak by In-Campus Students InCampus Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Bicycle Motorcycle 2 2 3 0 20 17 26 39 AM Peak Hour Trips 70 70 80 86 Trips per Bicycle 35.00 35.00 26.67 Trips per Motorcycle 3.50 4.12 3.08 2.21

From Table 4.7, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the linefit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.8.

Table 4.8 :

AM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by In-Campus Students AM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation

Independent Variable

55 AM Peak Hour Trips per Bicycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=24.17 (X1) 1.54 T=-3.263 (X1) + 82.21 0.27 T=3.22 (X2) 0.18 T=0.775 (X2) + 56.73 0.92

From the results of analyses summarized in Table 4.8, it is obvious that Motorcycle is a significance parameter in estimating trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.92 (approaching value of 1) and small value of standard deviation. However, the trips-bicycle equation gives a low value of R2 = 0.27 (< 0.5), which means it does not represent in the trip generation studied. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.9 and 4.10 in Appendix F.

4.4.2

Analysis of the AM Peak Hours Traffic by In-Campus Staffs

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the staffs staying in-campus during the AM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.9. Table 4.9: Correlation Matrix for AM Peak Hour Trips by In-Campus Staffs In-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Trips 1.000 0.966 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000

56 Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 0.017 0.987 0.965 -0.241 0.985 0.989 1.000 -0.117 -0.219

1.000 0.994

1.000

With reference to Table 4.9, the Motorcycle, UTM Bus and Walking have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the staffs staying in the campus during the AM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, UTM Bus and Walking. The total observed AM peak hour trip generated by the staffs staying in the campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.10.

Table 4.10: Trips Generated during AM Peak by In-Campus Staffs InCampus Motorcycle UTM Bus Walking AM Peak Hour Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 19 59 16 11 0 9 1 0 0 5 0 0 Trips 27 85 41 24 1.42 1.44 2.56 2.18 Trips per Motorcycle Trips per UTM Bus 9.44 41.00 Trips per Walking 17.00 -

From Table 4.10, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.11. Table 4.11 : AM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by In-Campus Staffs Independent Variable AM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation

57 AM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per UTM Bus Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Walking Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=1.90 (X2) 0.87 T=1.232 (X2) + 11.92 0.93 T=12.61 (X4) T=6.377 (X4) + 28.31 0.97 T=4.25 (X5) T=10.867 (X5) + 30.67 0.93

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle is a significance parameter in estimating trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.93 (approaching value of 1) and small value of standard deviation. The multiple-regression relationship do not exist among the three independent variables because they are inter-related as shown in the table of Correlation Matrix above (Table 4.9), the values are 0.985, 0.989 and 0.994 (> 0.5). The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.11, 4.12 and 4.13 in Appendix F.

4.4.3

Analysis of the AM Peak Hours Traffic by In-Campus Population (Combination of Students and staffs)

58 The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the population staying in-campus during the AM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.12.

Table 4.12: Correlation Matrix for AM Peak Hour In-Campus Trips In-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 -0.492 0.919 0.207 -0.280 0.158 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -0.761 -0.484 0.854 -0.508

1.000 0.496 -0.466 0.175

1.000 0.012 -0.498

1.000 -0.873

1.000

With reference to the table above, only the Motorcycle has a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the population staying in the campus during the AM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variable of Motorcycle. The total observed AM peak hour trip generated by the population staying in the campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.13.

Table 4.13: Trip Generated during AM Peak In-Campus InCampus Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Motorcycle 21 21 27 40 AM Peak Hour Trips 72 76 83 88 Trips per Motorcycle 3.43 3.62 3.07 2.20

59 From Table 4.13, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.14.

Table 4.14: AM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations Independent Variable AM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=3.08 (X2) 0.14 T=0.732 (X2) + 59.80 0.84 AM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle is the only significance parameters in estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.84 (> 0.5) and small values of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.14 Appendix F.

4.4.4

Analysis of the PM Peak Hours Traffic by In-Campus Students

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the students staying in-campus during the PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.15.

60 Table 4.15:Correlation Matrix for PM Peak Hour Trips by In-Campus Students In-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 -0.098 0.704 -0.065 0.108 -0.090 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -0.720 -0.574 0.837 -0.508

1.000 0.559 -0.340 0.043

1.000 -0.089 -0.380

1.000 -0.887

1.000

With reference to the table above, only the Motorcycle has a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the students staying in the campus during the PM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle. The total observed PM peak hour trip generated by the students staying in the campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.16.

Table 4.16: Trip Generated during PM Peak by In-Campus Students In-Campus Motorcycle PM Peak Hour Trips Trips per Motorcycle Zone 7 20 52 2.60 Zone 8 17 59 3.47 Zone 9 26 79 3.04 Zone 10 39 75 1.92 From Table 4.16, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.17.

Table 4.17 : PM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by Students In-Campus Independent Variable PM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation

61 PM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=2.76 (X2) 0.29 T=0.928 (X2) + 42.58 0.50

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle is only a slightly significance parameter in estimating trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.50 and small value of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figure 4.15 in Appendix F.

4.4.5

Analysis of the PM Peak Hours Traffic by In-Campus Staffs

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the staffs staying in-campus during the PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.18.

Table 4.18: Correlation Matrix for PM Peak Hour Trips by In-Campus Staffs In-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 0.967 0.010 0.989 0.968 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000 -0.241 0.985 0.989

1.000 -0.117 -0.219

1.000 0.994

1.000

62 With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, UTM Bus and Walking have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the staffs staying in the campus during the PM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, UTM Bus and Walking. The total observed PM peak hour trip generated by the staffs staying in the campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.19.

Table 4.19: Trips Generated during PM Peak by In-Campus Staffs InCampus Motorcycle UTM Bus Walking PM Peak Hour Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 19 59 16 11 0 9 1 0 0 5 0 0 Trips 26 81 39 24 1.37 1.37 2.44 2.18 Trips per Motorcycle Trips per UTM Bus 9.00 39.00 Trips per Walking 16.20 -

From Table 4.19, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.20. Table 4.20 : PM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by In-Campus Staffs Independent Variable PM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation

63 PM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per UTM Bus Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Walking Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=1.84 (X2) 0.82 T=1.161 (X2) + 12.02 0.94 T=12.00 (X4) T=6.018 (X4) + 27.46 0.98 T=4.05 (X5) T=10.267 (X5) + 29.67 0.94

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle is a significance parameter in estimating trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.94 (approaching value of 1) and small value of standard deviation. The multiple-regression relationship do not exist among the three independent variables because they are inter-related as shown in the table of Correlation Matrix above, the values are 0.985, 0.989 and 0.994 (> 0.5). The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.16, 4.17 and 4.18 in Appendix F.

4.4.6

Analysis of the PM Peak Hours Traffic by In-Campus Population (Combination of Students and staffs)

64 The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the population staying in-campus during the PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.21.

Table 4.21: Correlation Matrix for PM Peak Hour In-Campus Trips In-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 -0.053 0.645 -0.097 0.066 -0.030 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -0.761 -0.484 0.854 -0.426

1.000 0.496 -0.466 0.083

1.000 0.012 -0.570

1.000 -0.828

1.000

With reference to the table above, only the Motorcycle has a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the population staying in the campus during the PM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variable of Motorcycle. The total observed PM peak hour trip generated by the population staying in the campus and the trips per independent variable of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.22.

Table 4.22: Trip Generated during PM Peak In-Campus InCampus Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Motorcycle 21 21 27 40 PM Peak Hour Trips 54 65 82 77 Trips per Motorcycle 2.57 3.10 3.04 1.93

65 From Table 4.22, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.23.

Table 4.23 : PM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations Independent Variable PM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=2.66 (X2) 0.25 T=0.903 (X2) + 44.88 0.42 PM Peak Hour In-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that none of the independent variables is the significance parameter in estimating trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.42 (less than value of 0.5). The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.19 in Appendix F.

4.5

Off-Campus Peak Hours Vehicle Trip Generation

This portion of analyses is calculated based on the trip generated by the four zones of residential located off-campus (Zone 11, 12, 13 and 14) and are again subdivided into small analyses as the following: i) ii) AM peak trip generation by off-campus students; AM peak trip generation by off-campus staffs;

66 iii) iv) v) vi) AM peak trip generation by off-campus population (students and staffs); PM peak trip generation by off-campus students; PM peak trip generation by off-campus staffs; PM peak trip generation by off-campus population (students and staffs); It takes the modes used by the students and the staffs such as bicycle (X1), motorcycle (X2), car / van (X3), UTM bus (X4) and walking (X5) as the independent variables. The observed trip generation collected from the relevant zones off-campus for the morning and evening peaks (AM peak and PM peak) are tabulated in Table 4.24.

Table 4.24: Observed Peak Hours Trip Generation Off-Campus Zone Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Observed Peak Hours Trip Generation AM Peak PM Peak Students Staffs Total Students Staffs 11 30 41 8 30 242 27 269 134 25 87 8 95 77 7 6 47 53 3 34

Total 38 159 84 37

In every analysis (i) to (vi) above, the first step is to carry out the examination of correlation between the independent variables to the vehicle trip generation during the both peak hours. Following that, those independent variables carried high degree of correlation, value greater than 0.5, to the observed trip generation are chosen to continue with analyses for the weighted average trip generation and regression equation.

4.5.1

Analysis of the AM Peak Hours Traffic by Off-Campus Students

67 The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the students staying off-campus during the AM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.25.

Table 4.25: Off-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking

Correlation Matrix for AM Peak Hour Trips by Off-Campus Students Trips 1.000 0.995 0.982 0.991 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000 0.958 0.999 -

1.000 0.949 -

1.000 -

1.000

With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the students staying off-campus during the AM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus. The total observed AM peak hour trip generated by the students staying offcampus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.26.

Table 4.26: Trip Generated during AM Peak by Off-Campus Students OffCampus Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 7 102 47 4 Motorcycle Car / Van 5 101 19 3 UTM Bus 1 51 24 1 AM Peak Hour Trips 11 242 87 6 Trips per Motorcycle 1.57 2.37 1.85 1.50 Trips per Car / Van 2.20 2.40 4.58 2.00 Trips per UTM Bus 11.00 4.75 3.63 6.00

From Table 4.26, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.27.

68

Table 4.27 : AM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by Off-Campus Students Independent Variable AM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation

69 AM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Car / Van Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per UTM Bus Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=1.82 (X2) 7.95 T=2.395 (X2) 9.29 0.99 T=2.79 (X3) 10.80 T=2.323 (X3) + 12.18 0.96 T=6.34 (X4) 38.94 T=4.589 (X4) 1.84 0.98

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle is a significance parameter in individual estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.99 (approaching value of 1) and small value of standard deviation. However, the multiple-regression relationship do not exist among the three independent variables because they are inter-related as shown in the table of Correlation Matrix above, the values are 0.958, 0.999 and 0.949 (> 0.5). The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.20, 4.21 and 4.22 in Appendix F.

4.5.2

Analysis of the AM Peak Hours Traffic by Off-Campus Staffs

70 The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the staffs staying off-campus during the AM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.28.

Table 4.28: Correlation Matrix for AM Peak Hour Trips by Off-Campus Staffs Off-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 0.741 0.974 -0.042 0.650 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000 0.576 -0.244 0.060

1.000 -0.027 0.745

1.000 0.577

1.000

With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, Car / Van and Walking have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the staffs staying off-campus during the AM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, Car / Van and Walking. The total observed AM peak hour trip generated by the staffs staying offcampus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.29.

71 Table 4.29: Trip Generated during AM Peak by Off-Campus Staffs OffCampus Motorcycle Car / Van Walking AM Peak Hour Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 13 6 2 10 17 19 6 36 0 1 0 1 Trips 30 27 8 47 2.31 4.50 4.00 4.70 Trips per Motorcycle Trips per Car / Van 1.76 1.42 1.33 1.31 Trips per Walking 27.00 47.00

From Table 4.29, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.30.

Table 4.30 : AM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by Off-Campus Staffs

72 Independent Variable AM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Car / Van Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Walking Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=3.88 (X2) 2.16 T=2.571 (X2) + 7.61 0.53 T=1.46 (X3) 0.75 T=1.238 (X3) + 3.658 0.95 T=18.50 (X5) T=17.500 (X5) + 17.5 0.44 AM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle and Car / Van are significance parameters in the estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.53 and 0.95 (> 0.5) respectively and small value of standard deviation. However, the trips-walking equation gives a low value of R2 =0.44 (< 0.5), which means it does not represent in the trip generation studied. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.23, 4.24 and 4.25 in Appendix F.

4.5.3

Analysis of the AM Peak Hours Traffic by Off-Campus Population (Combination of Students and staffs)

73 The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the population staying off-campus during the AM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.31.

Table 4.31: Correlation Matrix for AM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trips Off-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 0.984 0.958 0.968 0.509 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000 0.894 0.993 0.356

1.000 0.858 0.699

1.000 0.334

1.000

With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the population staying off-campus during the AM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus. The total observed AM peak hour trip generated by the population staying off-campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.32.

Table 4.32: Trip Generated during AM Peak Off-Campus OffCampus Motorcycle Car / Van Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 20 108 49 22 120 25 1 52 24 UTM Bus AM Peak Hour Trips 41 269 95 2.05 2.49 1.94 Trips per Motorcycle Trips per Car / Van 1.86 2.24 3.80 41.00 5.17 3.96 Trips per UTM Bus

74 Zone 14 14 39 1 53 3.79 1.36 53.00

From Table 4.32, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.33.

75 Table 4.33 : AM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations Independent Variable AM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per Car / Van Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 AM Peak Hour Trips per UTM Bus Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=2.57 (X2) 2.38 T=2.406 (X2) 0.95 0.97 T=2.32 (X3) 1.75 T=2.196 (X3) + 2.423 0.92 T=25.78 (X4) 37.34 T=4.251 (X4) + 29.85 0.94 AM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle and Car / Van are significance parameters in individual estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.97 and 0.92 (approaching value of 1) respectively and small values of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.26, 4.27 and 4.28 in Appendix F.

4.5.4

Analysis of the PM Peak Hours Traffic by Off-Campus Students

76

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the students staying off-campus during the PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.34.

Table 4.34: Students Off-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking

Correlation Matrix for PM Peak Hour Trips by Off-Campus Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

Trips 1.000 0.992 0.913 0.995 -

1.000 0.958 0.999 -

1.000 0.949 -

1.000 -

1.000

With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the students staying off-campus during the PM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus. The total observed PM peak hour trip generated by the students staying offcampus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.35.

Table 4.35: Trip Generated during PM Peak by Off-Campus Students OffCampus Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus PM Peak Hour Trips Trips per Motorcycle Trips per Car / Van Trips per UTM Bus

77 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 7 102 47 4 5 101 19 3 1 51 24 1 8 134 77 3 1.14 1.31 1.64 0.75 1.60 1.33 4.05 1.00 8.00 2.63 3.21 3.00

From Table 4.35, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.36.

78 Table 4.36 : PM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by Off-Campus Students Independent Variable PM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Car / Van Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per UTM Bus Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=1.21 (X2) 4.50 T=1.350 (X2) + 1.50 0.98 T=1.99 (X3) 6.11 T=1.222 (X3) + 16.40 0.83 T=4.21 (X4) 22.03 T=2.605 (X4) + 5.36 0.99 PM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle and Car / Van are significance parameters in individual estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.98, 0.83 and 0.99 (approaching value of 1) respectively and small values of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.29, 4.30 and 4.31 in Appendix F.

4.5.5

Analysis of the PM Peak Hours Traffic by Off-Campus Staffs

79

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the staffs staying off-campus during the PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.37.

Table 4.37: Correlation Matrix for PM Peak Hour Trips by Off-Campus Staffs Off-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 0.876 0.855 0.056 0.533 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000 0.576 -0.244 0.060

1.000 -0.027 0.745

1.000 0.577

1.000

With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, Car / Van and Walking have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the staffs staying off-campus during the PM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, Car / Van and Walking. The total observed PM peak hour trip generated by the staffs staying offcampus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.38.

80 Table 4.38: Trip Generated during PM Peak by Off-Campus Staffs OffCampus Motorcycle Car / Van Walking PM Peak Hour Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 13 6 2 10 17 19 6 36 0 1 0 1 Trips 30 25 7 34 2.31 4.17 3.50 3.40 Trips per Motorcycle Trips per Car / Van 1.76 1.32 1.17 0.94 Trips per Walking 25.00 34.00

From Table 4.38, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.39.

81 Table 4.39 : PM Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations by Off-Campus Staffs Independent Variable PM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Car / Van Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Walking Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=3.34 (X2) 1.61 T=2.320 (X2) + 5.18 0.79 T=1.30 (X3) 0.56 T=0.793 (X3) + 7.528 0.72 T=14.75 (X3) T=10.00 (X3) + 17 0.27 PM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle and Car / Van are significance parameters in the individual estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.79 and 0.72 (approaching 1) respectively and small values of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.32, 4.33 and 4.34 in Appendix F.

4.5.6

Analysis of the PM Peak Hours Traffic by Off-Campus Population (Combination of Students and staffs)

82

The correlation matrix between the five independent variables and the observed trip generated by the population staying off-campus during the PM peak hours is tabulated in Table 4.40.

Table 4.40: Correlation Matrix for PM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trips Off-Campus Trips Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking Trips 1.000 0.998 0.890 0.997 0.372 Bicycle Motorcycle Car / Van UTM Bus Walking 1.000 -

1.000 0.894 0.993 0.356

1.000 0.858 0.699

1.000 0.334

1.000

With reference to the table above, the Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus have a high degree of correlation to the trip generated by the population staying off-campus during the PM peak hours. Therefore, the analyses for the weighted average and regression equation are then conducted for the independent variables of Motorcycle, Car / Van and UTM Bus. The total observed PM peak hour trip generated by the population staying off-campus and the trips per every selected independent variables of each zone is tabulated in Table 4.41.

Table 4.41: Trip Generated during Off-Campus PM Peak OffCampus Zone 11 20 Motorcycle Car / Van 22 UTM Bus 1 PM Peak Hour Trips 38 Trips per Motorcycle 1.90 Trips per Car / Van 1.73 Trips per UTM Bus 38.00

83 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 108 49 14 120 25 39 52 24 1 159 84 37 1.47 1.71 2.64 1.33 3.36 0.95 3.06 3.50 37.00

From Table 4.41, the trip rates based on the weighted average calculation and the line-fit regression analysis are tabulated in Table 4.42.

84 Table 4.42 : PM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation Rates and Linear Regression Equations Independent Variable PM Peak Hour Trips per Motorcycle Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per Car / Van Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 PM Peak Hour Trips per UTM Bus Weighted Average Standard Deviation Regression Equation R2 T=1.93 (X2) 1.29 T=1.324 (X2) + 14.93 0.99 T=1.84 (X3) 0.95 T=1.103 (X3) + 22.07 0.79 T=20.39 (X4) 20.29 T=2.374 (X4) + 31.20 0.99 PM Peak Hour Off-Campus Trip Generation

From the results of analyses summarized in the table above, it is obvious that Motorcycle and Car / Van are significance parameters in individual estimation of trip generation of the above study because it shows the R2 value of 0.99 and 0.79 (approaching value of 1) respectively and small values of standard deviation. The line-fit plots for the above selected relationship shown by the line-fit regression equations are presented in Figures 4.35, 4.36 and 4.37 in Appendix F.

4.6 Summary of Analysis Results

85

4.6.1

Trip Generation In Terms of Numbers of Population

The independent variables that show a good fit in the relationship and the particular equations of linear-regression are summarized in Table 4.43.

Table 4.43 : Independent Variables with High R2 value (Approaching 1) In the Estimation of Trip Generation and the Equations Independent Variable AM Peak Hour Trips per Students PM Peak Hour Trips per Students AM Peak Hour Trips per Staffs PM Peak Hour Trips per Staffs AM Peak Hour Trips per Total Population PM Peak Hour Trips per Total Population R2 value 0.93 0.80 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.89 Equation T=0.576 (X) + 10.487 T=0.309 (X) + 22.793 T=0.979 (X) + 0.086 T=0.771 (X) + 1.385 T=0.572 (X) + 17.596 T=0.301 (X) + 32.582

4.6.1.1 Comparison with ITE Trip Generation Rates

86

The ITE trip generation rates and equations are used to compare with the findings of this study as shown in the following Table 4.44, Table 4.45 and Figure 4.38 to 4.40 in Appendix F.

Table 4.44: Independent Variable

Number of Students (AM Peak) Number of Students (PM Peak) Number of Staffs (AM Peak) Number of Staffs (PM Peak)

Comparison of Trip Equations and R2 Values within Findings of This Study and ITE Trip Generation R
2

ITE Trip Equation T = 0.184 X + 26.359

This Study Trip Equation T=0.576 (X) + 10.487

0.9 2 0.9 7 0.6 4 N/A

0.9 3 0.8 0 0.9 9 0.9 6

T = 0.188 X + 133.429
Ln(T) = 0.640 Ln(X) + 2.084

T=0.309 (X) + 22.793 T=0.979 (X) + 0.086 T=0.771 (X) + 1.385

N/A

Table 4.45:

Comparison of Trip Rates and Standard Deviation within Findings of This Study and ITE Trip Generation ITE Trip Rate Standard 0.19 0.23 0.73 0.88 Deviation 0.44 0.49 1.02 1.15 This Study Trip Rate Standard 0.69 0.54 0.99 0.93 Deviation 0.99 0.57 1.71 1.38

Independent Variable Number of Students (AM Peak) Number of Students (PM Peak) Number of Staffs (AM Peak) Number of Staffs (PM Peak)

From Table 4.44 and Figure 4.38 to 4.40, it is significance that both the studies shown similar characteristics which when the number of population increase, the trip volume also increase. However, the equation of trips to number-of-staffs during AM peak from ITE shows a fitted curve but this study shows a linear regression line equation. The fitted curve equation for trips to number-of-staffs during PM peak is

87 not available from ITE; therefore, comparison could not be done. It is important to highlight that in ITE, the trip-equations established are meant for university campuses as landuse on its own resulting from the adjacent road, but in this study, the trip-equations were formed based on the trip generated from the zones of residential to the center of the campus. Table 4.45 shown that the characteristics for both the studies are similar where the values of trip rate and standard deviation are bigger for trips generated by the employees compared to students. However, the trip rates by number of students from this study are slightly bigger that trip rates from ITE.

4.6.2

Trip Generation In Terms of Vehicle Ownerships

In this study, an independent variable, X, that gives the R2 value exceeding 0.5; in the relationship with the dependent variable, which here represented by the trips generated, T, is considered as a good fit in matching the observed data points. This value is also used as a reference in testing the relationship for certain trip generation linear-regression equation in the Trip Generation Pilot Study of Malaysia, (Highway Planning Unit, 1997) and the ITE Trip Generation Manual (ITE,1991) mentioned in the earlier chapters. Therefore, the independent variables that show a good fit in the relationship and the particular equations of linear-regression are summarized in Table 4.46 to 4.50 and followed by the interpretation of the results.

Table 4.46 : Independent Variables with High Goodness of fit (Approaching 1) In the Estimation of Trip Generation of AM Peak In-Campus and the Equations Independent Variable R2 value Equation

88 AM Peak In-Campus by Students Motorcycle AM Peak In-Campus by Staffs Motorcycle AM Peak In-Campus Motorcycle 0.84 T=1.355 X2 + 50.65 0.93 T=1.232 X2 + 11.92 0.92 T=0.775 X2 + 56.73

From Table 4.46, it is significant that the trips generated by the populations staying in hostels in-campus, including students and staffs, during the AM peak hours, 07:30 to 09:00 are mainly by motorcycles.

Table 4.47 : Independent Variables with High Goodness of fit (Approaching 1) In the Estimation of Trip Generation of PM Peak In-Campus and the Equations Independent Variable PM Peak In-Campus by Students Motorcycle PM Peak In-Campus by Staffs Motorcycle PM Peak In-Campus Motorcycle 0.65 T=1.269 X2 + 43.10 0.94 T=1.161 X2 + 12.02 R2 value 0.50 Equation T=0.928 X2 + 42.584

From Table 4.47, it shows that the trips generated by the populations staying in hostels in-campus, including students and staffs, during the PM peak hours, from 16:30 to 18:00 are mainly by motorcycles. Hence, it can be concluded that motorcycles have been widely used for traveling in the campus. However, surveys should be conducted to study the reasons why the population staying in-campus

89 chose not to use bicycle and UTM bus or even walking as their transport since these cost cheaper than using motorcycle, i.e., safety not secured or poor level of service.

Table 4.48 : Independent Variables with High Goodness of fit (Approaching 1) In the Estimation of Trip Generation of AM Peak Off-Campus and the Equations Independent Variable AM Peak Off-Campus by Students Motorcycle Car / Van AM Peak Off-Campus by Staffs Motorcycle Car / Van AM Peak Off-Campus Motorcycle Car / Van 0.97 0.92 T=2.406 X2 0.95 T=2.196 X3 + 2.42 0.53 0.95 T=2.571 X2 + 7.61 T=1.238 X3 + 3.66 R2 value 0.99 0.96 Equation T=2.395 X2 9.29 T=2.323 X3 + 12.18

From Table 4.48, it is reasonable to observe that the trips generated by the populations staying off-campus, including students and staffs, during the AM peak hours, 07:30 to 09:00 are mainly by motorcycles, car / van and UTM bus because it is not within walking or cycling distance. Besides, majority of staffs preferred to use car / van than motorcycle.

Table 4.49 : Independent Variables with High Goodness of fit (Approaching 1) In the Estimation of Trip Generation of PM Peak Off-Campus and the Equations Independent Variable R2 value Equation

90 PM Peak Off-Campus by Students Motorcycle Car / Van PM Peak Off-Campus by Staffs Motorcycle Car / Van PM Peak Off-Campus Motorcycle Car / Van 0.99 0.79 T=1.324 X2 + 14.93 T=1.103 X3 + 22.07 0.79 0.72 T=2.320 X2 + 5.18 T=0.793 X3 + 7.53 0.98 0.83 T=1.350 X2 + 1.50 T=1.222 X3 + 16.40

From Table 4.49, an interpretation similar to the analysis result of the trips generated by the populations staying off-campus, including students and staffs, during the AM peak hours, 07:30 to 09:00 can be made for the populations staying offcampus during the PM peak hours.

91 Table 4.50 : Independent Variables with High Goodness of fit (Approaching 1) In the Estimation of Trip Generation of AM and PM Peak InCampus and Off-Campus Independent Variable AM Peak In-Campus Motorcycle PM Peak In-Campus Motorcycle AM Peak Off-Campus Motorcycle Car / Van PM Peak Off-Campus Motorcycle Car / Van 0.99 0.79 T=1.324 X2 + 14.93 T=1.103 X3 + 22.07 0.97 0.92 T=2.406 X2 0.95 T=2.196 X3 + 2.42 0.65 T=1.269 X2 + 43.10 R2 value 0.84 Equation T=1.355 X2 + 50.65

From Table 4.50, the different between the significant transports used by populations staying in-campus and off-campus is very clear. Car / van is an important parameter for trip generation by the populations staying off-campus compared to those staying in-campus.

4.7

Prediction of Trip Generation

The main purpose of all trip generation studies is to be able to predict the trips generated by a defined development, i.e. one where the independent variables x is known. Then the trips generated can be predicted by multiplying the value of the independent variable x with the most appropriate trip generation rate. This rate must

92 be chosen or derived from studies that reflect the environment of the proposed development. Thus, even through many sample studies are available, only an appropriate sub-set of these studies will be used to derive the relevant rate. When a linear equation fits the data points well enough as determined by the R-squared value, then the trips generated can be predicted by using this equation for given x value. However, care should be taken to examine points at the two extreme ends of the x-axis so as not to under- or over-estimate the trips generated.

93

CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Introduction

This study aims to determine the weekday peak hour trip generation for Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in Skudai. The trip generations were analyzed for two peak hours in terms of numbers of students, numbers of staffs, total numbers of population and vehicle ownerships as described in Chapter 3 and 4. The duration of the AM and PM peak hours occur between 7:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. respectively. All information related to existing number of population in each zone and other existing traffic and transportation inventories were first collected through relevant departments. The field survey was then conducted in form of origin and destination (O & D) interview. The interview surveys provided information on the vehicle ownerships / modes used to make certain trip and tabulation of populations. Then, two methods were undertaken for estimating trip generation rates. The first is a weighted average trip generation rates and the second is a linear regression equations for the various independent variables. Hence, the analyses presented results in terms of a weighted average trip generation rate and a linear regression equation.

94 5.2 Problems Encountered In the Study

As the first trip generation modeling carried out for Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, this study should be viewed as a first step in developing transport models of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia for the purpose of further planning for better traffic and transport system in and around the university campus. As a begin, there are always a lots of problems encountered during the study: i) ii) iii) iv) limitation of time; limitation of manpower; limitation of resources especially in terms of budgets; inadequate or incomplete information from the relevant parties; either in the data collection from the departments of the university or in the Origin and Destination Interview Survey to the students

5.3

Recommendations for Further Research

This is the first trip generation study conducted in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai. Thus, there are various recommendations or alternatives can be enhanced to improve the study: i) ii) iii) iv) Conduct traffic counts at appropriate locations in and around the campus to support the origin & destination interview survey data; Include more samples to calibrate the results or models obtained in this study; Produce similar study for different possible independent variables or different division of zones according to different landuses; Carry out similar study in other university campuses in Malaysia for validation or comparison;

95 5.4 Concluding Remarks

This study was conducted to investigate the trip generation characteristics of a university campus resulting from its populations. The analysis found out that as the population increased, the trip generated also increased. Besides, motorcycles have been widely used for traveling by populations staying in the campus. But, car / van is an additional important parameter for trip generation by the populations staying off-campus compared to those staying in-campus. These are importance to predict the traffic condition if certain policy is to be introduced. For instance, if all the hostels are to be moved into the compound of campus and all students are compulsory to stay in campus, will this new policy benefit or worsen the traffic conditions? It should be noted that all the selected trip generation equations have good value of R2 (approaching 1). This reflects that these trip rates and equations can be utilized with certain degree of confidence. Of course, it should not be denied that larger volume of sample might have better desirable results.

96 Bibliography Ashley, C. (1994). Traffic And Highway Engineering For Development. London: Blackwell Scientific Publications. Bajpai, J. N. (1990). Forecasting The Basic Inputs To Transportation Planning At The Zonal Level. Washington: Transportation Research Board. Bruton, M. J. (1985). Introduction To Transportation Planning. 3rd ed. London: Hutchinson & Co. Ltd. Carter, C. R. (1996). A Campus Transportation Alternative, Revisited. Transportation Quarterly. 50-3. 123 129. Clark, J. W. (1975). Assessing The Relationship Between Urban Form And Travel Requirements. Urban Transportation Program, University of Washington Seattle. Cleveland, D. E. (Ed.)(1964). Manual of Traffic Engineering Studies. 3rd ed. Washington: Institute of Traffic Engineers. Cochran, W. G. (1977). Sampling Techniques. 3rd ed. Canada: John Wiley & Sons. Coombe, D. (1996). Induced Traffic: What Do Transportation Models Tell Us? Transportation. 23. 83 99. Edwards, J. D. (Ed.)(1992). Transportation Planning Handbook. New Jersey, USA: PTR Prentice-Hall. Highway Planning Unit (1997a). Trip Generation Study (Pilot Study) Technical Report No. 2: Procedures And Methodology. Kuala Lumpur: Public Works Department Malaysia.

97 Highway Planning Unit (1997b). Trip Generation Study (Pilot Study) Final Report. Kuala Lumpur: Public Works Department Malaysia. Institute of Transportation Engineers (1991). Trip Generation. 5th ed. Washington D.C.: Institute of Transportation Engineers. Ivens, K. and Carlberg, C. (1999). Excel 2000: The Complete Reference. California: McGraw-Hill. Juan, D. O. and Willumsen, L. G. (1990). Modeling Transport. England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.. Lane, R., Powell, T. J. and Smith, P. P. (1971). Analytical Transport Planning. London: Gerald Duckworth and Company Limited. Meyer, M. D. and Miller E. J. (2001). Urban Transportation Planning. 2nd ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill. Oppenheim, N. (1995). Urban Travel Demand Modeling. Canada: John Wiley & Sons. Ott, L. R. and Longnecker, M. (2001). An Introduction To Statistical Methods And Data Analysis. 5th ed. USA: Thomson Learning Academic Resource Center. Ravi Shankar. A (1999). Weekday Peak Hour Trip Generation Rates And Composition Of Pass-By And Diverted Trips For Shopping Complexes In The Klang Valley. Universiti Teknologi Malaysia:Thesis. Retzko, H. G. (1996). Interdisciplinary Work In Traffic And Transport. Transportation Quarterly. 50-1. 115 123. Riza Atiq Abdullah O.K. Rahmat (1994). Model Pengangkutan Bandar: Pendekatan Secara Teori Dan Amali. Kuala Lumpur: Dewan Bahasa Dan Pustaka.

98 Salter, R.J (1976). Highway Traffic Analysis And Design. 2nd ed. London: Macmillan Press. Company. Wells, G. R. (1975). Comprehensive Transport Planning. London: Charles Griffin & Company Ltd. Wright, P. H. (1996). Highway Engineering. Canada: John Wiley & Sons.

99
Schedules of UTM Bus in Campus Route A (Kolej Tun Razak, Tun Hussein Onn and Tun Dr. Ismail - Lingkaran Ilmu ) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 6 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 6 7.15 a.m. Morning: Non-Peak Hour (8:45 a.m. 9:30 a.m.) 2 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 8.45 a.m. 1 9.15 a.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 9.00 a.m. 9.30 a.m.

Morning: Non-Peak Hour (10:15 a.m. 12:30 noon) 5 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 10.15 a.m. 10.30 a.m. 1 10.45 a.m. 11.00 a.m. 1 11.15 a.m. 11.30 a.m. 1 11.45 a.m. 12.00 noon 1 12.15 a.m. 12.30 noon Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:30 p.m. 2:30 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 1.30 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:15 p.m.) 5 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.30 p.m. 1 5.00 p.m. 1 5.30 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 2.30 p.m.

End FAB 4.15 p.m. 4.45 p.m. 5.15 p.m. 5.45 p.m. 6.15 p.m.

Evening: Non-Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:15 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.00 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.30 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.15 p.m. Rest Period :9.30 a.m. 10.15 a.m. :12.30 noon 1.30 p.m. :2.30 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.15 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :25

Total numbers of trips

Services 1. Monday to Friday 2. No service at Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

100

101

Schedules of UTM Bus in Campus Route B (Kolej Tun Razak, Tun Hussein Onn and Tun Dr. Ismail Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:20 a.m. 8:50 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 6 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 6 7.20 a.m. Morning: Non-Peak Hour (9:00 a.m. 9:45 a.m.) 2 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 9.00 a.m. 1 9.30 a.m.

End FAB 8.50 a.m.

End FAB 9.15 a.m. 9.45 a.m.

Morning: Non-Peak Hour (10:30 a.m. 12:45 noon) 5 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 10.30 a.m. 10.45 a.m. 1 11.00 a.m. 11.15 a.m. 1 11.30 a.m. 11.45 a.m. 1 12.00 a.m. 12.15 noon 1 12.30 a.m. 12.45 noon Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:35 p.m. 2:35 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 1.35 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:15 p.m. 6:15 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.15 p.m. 1 4.45 p.m. 1 5.15 p.m. 1 5.45 p.m. Rest Period

End FAB 2.35 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.00 p.m. 5.30 p.m. 6.00 p.m.

:9.45 a.m. 10.30 a.m. :12.45 noon 1.35 p.m. :2.35 p.m. 4.15 p.m. :21

Total numbers of trips

Services 1. Monday to Friday 2. No service at Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

102

103

Schedules of UTM Bus in Campus Route C (Kolej Tun Razak, Tun Hussein Onn and Tun Dr. Ismail FKKKSA) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m. Rest Period Total numbers of trips Services 1.Monday to Friday 2.No service at Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 2.35 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

:8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :10

104

105

Schedules of UTM Bus in Campus Route D (Kolej Rahman Putra and Tun Fatimah Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 9 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 9 7.15 a.m. Morning: Non-Peak Hour (8:45 a.m. 9:20 a.m.) 2 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 8.45 a.m. 1 9.10 a.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 8.55 a.m. 9.20 a.m.

Morning: Non-Peak Hour (10:30 a.m. 12:45 noon) 6 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 10.30 a.m. 10.40 a.m. 1 10.55 a.m. 11.05 a.m. 1 11.20 a.m. 11.30 a.m. 1 11.45 a.m. 11.55 a.m. 1 12.10 noon 12.20 noon 1 12.35 noon 12.45 noon Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:30 p.m. 2:30 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 6 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 6 1.30 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:15 p.m.) 5 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.25 p.m. 1 4.50 p.m. 1 5.15 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m. Rest Period

End FAB 2.30 p.m.

End FAB 4.10 p.m. 4.35 p.m. 5.00 p.m. 5.30 p.m. 6.15 p.m.

:9.20 a.m. 10.30 a.m. :12.45 noon 1.30 p.m. :2.30 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :28

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Friday 2.No service at Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

106

107

Schedules of UTM Bus in Campus Route E (Kolej Tuanku Canselor Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 7.15 a.m. Morning: Non-Peak Hour (8:45 a.m. 12:50 noon) 7 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 8.45 a.m. 1 9.15 a.m. 1 10.30 a.m. 1 11.00 a.m. 1 11.30 a.m. 1 12.00 noon 1 12.30 noon Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:30 p.m. 2:10 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 1.30 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:20 p.m.) 5 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.30 p.m. 1 5.00 p.m. 1 5.30 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.30 a.m.

End FAB 9.05 a.m. 9.35 a.m. 10.50 a.m. 11.20 a.m. 11.50 a.m. 12.20 noon 12.50 noon

End FAB 2.30 p.m.

End FAB 4.20 p.m. 4.50 p.m. 5.20 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.20 p.m.

Evening: Non-Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:20 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.05 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.35 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.20 p.m. Rest Period :9.35 a.m. 10.30 a.m. :12.50 noon 1.30 p.m. :2.30 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.20 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :23

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Friday 2.No service at Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

108

109

Schedules of UTM Bus in Campus Route F (Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:00 a.m. 9:00 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 12 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 12 7.00 a.m. Morning: Non-Peak Hour (9:00 a.m. 12:00 noon) 6 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 9.00 a.m. 1 9.30 a.m. 1 10.00 a.m. 1 10.30 a.m. 1 11.00 a.m. 1 11.30 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (12:00 p.m. 2:00 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 12 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 12 12.00 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (2:00 p.m. 4:00 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 2.00 p.m. 1 2.30 p.m. 1 3.00 p.m. 1 3.30 p.m. Evening: Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 5:00 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 6 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 6 4.00 p.m. Rest Period Total numbers of trips Services 1.Monday to Friday 2.No service at Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

End FAB 9.00 a.m.

End FAB 9.20 a.m. 9.50 a.m. 10.20 a.m. 10.50 a.m. 11.20 a.m. 11.50 a.m.

End FAB 2.00 p.m.

End FAB 2.20 p.m. 2.50 p.m. 3.20 p.m. 3.50 p.m.

End FAB 5.00 p.m.

:5.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. :40

110

111

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route G (Taman Sri Skudai & Taman Sri Putri Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

112

113

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route H (Taman Sri Pulai & Taman Teratai Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

114

115

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route I (Taman Universiti Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

116

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route J (Taman Universiti Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

117

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route K (Taman Universiti Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Rest Period Total numbers of trips Services

:8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :10

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

118

119

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route L (Kolej Siswa Desa Skudai Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

120

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route M (Kolej Siswa Desa Skudai Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

121

122

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route N (Kolej Siswa Desa Skudai - FSKSM) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 3 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

123

124

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route O (Kolej Siswa Desa Skudai - FKKKSA) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 8:45 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:50 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. 1 2.20 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 8.45 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m. 2.50 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Rest Period

:8.45 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.50 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 11.30 p.m. :11

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

125

126

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route P (Kolej Melawis Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 9:15 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:10 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 2 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 9.15 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :9.15 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.10 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

127

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route Q (Kolej Melawis Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 9:15 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:10 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 2 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 9.15 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Evening: Non Peak Hour (7:45 p.m. 11:30 p.m.) 3 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB End FAB 1 7.45 p.m. 8.15 p.m. 1 10.15 p.m. 10.45 p.m. 1 11.00 p.m. 11.30 p.m. Rest Period :9.15 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.10 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 7.45 p.m. :13

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

128

Schedules of UTM Bus off-Campus Route R (Kolej Melawis Lingkaran Ilmu) Morning: Peak Hour (7:15 a.m. 9:15 a.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 4 7.15 a.m. Afternoon: Peak Hour (1:00 p.m. 2:10 p.m.) Bus Operating without Stopping up to 2 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 1.00 p.m. 1 1.40 p.m. Afternoon: Non-Peak Hour (4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m.) 4 Trips No. of Trips Begin FAB 1 4.00 p.m. 1 4.40 p.m. 1 5.20 p.m. 1 6.00 p.m.

End FAB 9.15 a.m.

End FAB 1.30 p.m. 2.10 p.m.

End FAB 4.30 p.m. 5.10 p.m. 5.50 p.m. 6.30 p.m.

Rest Period

:9.15 a.m. 1.00 p.m. :2.10 p.m. 4.00 p.m. :6.30 p.m. 11.30 p.m. :10

Total numbers of trips Services

1.Monday to Saturday 2.No service at Sunday, Public Holiday and long semester break

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

Number of Students Line Fit Plot for AM Peak 300 Trips by student 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 No. of Students
y = 0.5762x + 10.487 R2 = 0.932

Figure 4.3:

Line Fit Plot for Number of Students During AM Peak

Number of Students Line Fit Plot for PM Peak 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 100 200

Trips by student

y = 0.309x + 22.793 R2 = 0.7967

300

400

500

No. of Students

Figure 4.4:

Line Fit Plot for Number of Students During PM Peak

140

Number of Staffs Line Fit Plot for AM Peak 50 Trips by staffs 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 No. of Staffs 40 50 60
y = 0.9788x + 0.0863 R2 = 0.9997

Figure 4.5:

Line Fit Plot for Number of Staffs During AM Peak

Number of Staffs Line Fit Plot for PM Peak 50 Trips by staffs 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 No. of Staffs 40 50 60
y = 0.771x + 1.3846 R2 = 0.9568

Figure 4.6:

Line Fit Plot for Number of Staffs During PM Peak

141

Total Population Line Fit Plot for AM Peak 300 Total trips,y 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Total Pop.,x
y = 0.5716x + 17.596 R = 0.9396
2

Figure 4.7:

Line Fit Plot for Total Number of Population During AM Peak

Total Poppulation Line Fit Plot for PM Peak 200 Total Trips,y 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Total Population,x
y = 0.3013x + 32.582 R2 = 0.8915

Figure 4.8:

Line Fit Plot for Total Number of Population During PM Peak

142

Bicycle Line Fit Plot

100 Trips 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 Bicycle 3 4
y = -3.2632x + 82.211 R2 = 0.2705

Figure 4.9:

Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM

Peaks by In-Campus Students

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Motorcycle
Figure 4.10: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by In-Campus Students
y = 0.7754x + 56.726 R2 = 0.9164

143

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20

Trips

y = 1.2318x + 11.916 R2 = 0.933

40 Motorcycle

60

80

Figure 4.11: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by In-Campus Staffs

Utm Bus Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 2 4 Utm Bus 6 8 10
y = 6.3772x + 28.307 R2 = 0.9745

Figure 4.12: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by In-Campus Staffs

144

Walking Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 2 Walking 4 6
y = 10.867x + 30.667 R2 = 0.9308

Figure 4.13: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by In-Campus Staffs

145

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Motorcycle
y = 0.7321x + 59.801 R2 = 0.8447

Figure 4.14: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by In-Campus Population

146

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20

Trips

y = 0.9281x + 42.584 R2 = 0.4962

30

40

50

Motorcycle

Figure 4.15: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by In-Campus Students

147

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 Motorcycle 60 80
y = 1.1612x + 12.019 R 2 = 0.9352

Figure 4.16: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by In-Campus Staffs

Utm Bus Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Utm Bus
y = 6.0175x + 27.456 R = 0.9787
2

Figure 4.17: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by In-Campus Staffs

148

Walking Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 2 Walking 4 6
y = 10.267x + 29.667 R2 = 0.9371

Figure 4.18: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by In-Campus Staffs

149

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

100 80 Trips 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Motorcycle
y = 0.9034x + 44.882 R2 = 0.4154

Figure 4.19: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by In-Campus Populations

150

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 Motorcycle

Trips

y = 2.3947x - 9.2885 2 R = 0.9901

100

150

Figure 4.20: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Students

Car / Van Line Fit Plot

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 Car / Van

Trips

y = 2.3225x + 12.181 R = 0.9642

2

100

150

Figure 4.21: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Students

151

Utm Bus Line Fit Plot

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 20 Utm Bus

Trips

y = 4.5891x - 1.8395 R2 = 0.9827

40

60

Figure 4.22: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Students

152

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

50 40 Trips 30 20 10 0 0 5 Motorcycle 10 15
y = 2.5708x + 7.6119 R2 = 0.5254

Figure 4.23: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Staffs

Car / Van Line Fit Plot

50 40 Trips 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 Car / Van 30 40
y = 1.2379x + 3.6583 R2 = 0.9539

Figure 4.24: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Staffs

153

Walking Line Fit Plot

50 40 Trips 30 20 10 0 0 0.5 Walking 1 1.5
y = 17.5x + 17.5 R2 = 0.4446

Figure 4.25: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Staffs

154

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 Motorcycle

Trips

y = 2.4063x - 0.949 R 2 = 0.9696

100

150

Figure 4.26: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Populations

Car / Van Line Fit Plot

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 Car / Van

Trips

y = 2.1956x + 2.4229 R 2 = 0.9186

100

150

Figure 4.27: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Populations

155

Utm Bus Line Fit Plot

300 250 Trips 200 150 100 50 0 0 20 Utm Bus 40 60
y = 4.2513x + 29.85 R = 0.9408
2

Figure 4.28: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of AM Peaks by Off-Campus Populations

156

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

150 Trips 100 50 0 0 50 Motorcycle 100 150
y = 1.35x + 1.5019 R2 = 0.9831

Figure 4.29: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Students

Car / Van Line Fit Plot

150 Trips 100 50 0 0 50 Car / Van 100 150
y = 1.2218x + 16.401 R 2 = 0.8339

Figure 4.30: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Students

157

Utm Bus Line Fit Plot

150 100 50 0 0 20 Utm Bus 40 60
y = 2.6047x + 5.3598 2 R = 0.9892

Trips

Figure 4.31: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Students

158

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

40 30 Trips 20 10 0 0 5 Motorcycle 10 15
y = 2.3196x + 5.1826 R2 = 0.7877

Figure 4.32: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Staffs

Car / Van Line Fit Plot

40 30 Trips 20 10 0 0 10 20 Car / Van 30 40
y = 0.793x + 7.5277 R2 = 0.7209

Figure 4.33: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Staffs

159

Walking Line Fit Plot

40 Trips 30 20 10 0 0 0.5 Walking 1 1.5
y = 10x + 17 R 2 = 0.2674

Figure 4.34: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Staffs

160

Motorcycle Line Fit Plot

200 Trips 150 100 50 0 0 50 Motorcycle 100 150
y = 1.3242x + 14.93 R2 = 0.9969

Figure 4.35: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Populations

Car / Van Line Fit Plot

200 150 Trips 100 50 0 0 50 Car / Van 100 150
y = 1.1031x + 22.069 R 2 = 0.7872

Figure 4.36: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Populations

161

Utm Bus Line Fit Plot

200 150 Trips 100 50 0 0 20 Utm Bus 40 60
y = 2.3742x + 31.203 R 2 = 0.9961

Figure 4.37: Line Fit Plot for Correlated-Independent-Variable of PM Peaks by Off-Campus Populations

162

1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1000

T=Average Vehicle Trip Ends

UTM y = 0.5762x + 10.487 R2 = 0.932

ITE y = 0.184x + 26.359 R2 = 0.92

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

X=Number of Students

Figure 4.38: Comparison Plot of ITE and This Study by the Number of Students During AM Peak

T=Average Vehicle Trip Ends

1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 UTM y = 0.309x + 22.793 R2 = 0.7967 ITE y = 0.188x + 133.43 R2 = 0.97

X=Number of Students

Figure 4.39: Comparison Plot of ITE and This Study by the Number of Students During PM Peak

163

1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100

T=Average Vehicle Trip Ends

UTM y = 0.9788x + 0.0863 R2 = 0.9997 ITE Ln(y)=0.640(x)+2.084 R2=0.64

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

X=Number of Employees

Figure 4.40: Comparison Plot of ITE and This Study by the Number of Staffs During AM Peak