Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Administrative Issues
Course website:
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/web302_s12.html
OH: MW 4-5, 7418 Soc Sci Textbook: Blanchard, Macroeconomics Additional Readings: from WWW, Econbrowser CBO Econbrowser, NYT, FT, WSJ, Economist
Administrative Issues
Grading: 20% PS, PS 50% 2MTs, 2MTs 30% Final Dates: - MT1 on Wed, 2/22 - MT2 on Wed, , 4/11 - Final on Tue. 5/15, 7:25PM Make-ups: Make ups: None. Points are re re-allocated allocated if you have a legitimate excuse. No late assignments accepted (must ( t be b handed h d d in i during d i lecture) l t )
GDP (levels)
16,000 Potential GDP (CBO, Aug.'11) 15,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000 , 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source: BEA GDP 2011Q3 3rd release, CBO (Aug 2011), WSJ (Jan. 2012)
Source: BEA GDP 2011Q3 3rd release, CBO (Aug 2011), WSJ (Jan. 2012)
Employment
140,000 Nonfarm payroll employment, l 000's, SA 138,000 ,
136,000
132,000
130,000
128,000 8,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
PAYEMS_DEC12-CENSUSTAKERS PAYEMS_DEC12
Unemployment Rate
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1980 Unemployment rate, in %, SA
1985
1990 UNRATE
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
UNRATE_WSJ_JAN12
Unemployment Rate
20 Unemployment rates, in %, SA 16 Unemployed & underemployed
12 Official 8
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Inflation
.06 .05 .04 04 .03 .02 .01 .00 -.01 -.02 -.03 03 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Inflation rate y/y, in %, SA Core CPI WSJ (Jan. '12) "Headline" CPI
Monetary Policy
10 Ten year Treasurys 8 Fed funds 6
FEDFUNDS
Fed interventions
3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 LendingtoFinancial Institutions Long gTermTreasury y Purchases FedAgencyDebt Mortgage Backed SecuritiesPurch Liquidity Li idi to Key K Credit C di Markets
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/credit_easing/index.cfm
Consumption
11.2 Logs, in b Ch 05$ bn.Ch.05$ 9.2 9.0 8.8 10.0 8.6 8.4 8.2 1980 Log consumption [left axis] 1985 1990 1995 9.6
www.econbrowser.com
10.8
10 4 10.4
2000
2005
2010
House Prices
.00
-.02
-.1 1 Log real value of USD [l ft axis] [left i ] 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
-.04 04
-.2
-.3
-.06
-.08
Source: Federal Reserve Board, and BEA, 2011Q3 GDP 2nd release
CA/GDP
NIIPEOP/(GDP*1000)
Oil Prices
5.0 Log price of oil ($/bbl, WTI) 4.5
3.0 Nominal
2.5
2.0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: St. Louis FRED II. Relative price is deflated by Core CPI, 2010=0
\ 1920-21 recession
__Great Depression
Source: Historical Statistics, and BEA, 2011Q3 GDP 2nd release, rebased to Ch.00$
GDP: Production and Income The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP.
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A final good is a good that is destined for final consumption. An intermediate good is a good used in the production of another good.
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To construct real GDP GDP, multiply the number of cars in each year by a common price. Suppose we use the price of the car in 2000 as the common price. This approach gives us, in effect real GDP in chained (2000) dollars. effect, dollars
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(Yt Yt 1 ) Yt 1
Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansions. Periods of negative g GDP g growth are called recessions.
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U u= L
Unemployment rate = Unemployment/Labor force In the United States, estimates based on the CPS show that:
u2006
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The GDP deflator in year t, Pt, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t: Nominal GDP $Y P= = Real GDP Y
t t t t t
The GDP deflator is what is called an index numberset equal to 100 in the base year.
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The rate of change in the GDP deflator equals the rate of inflation:
( Pt Pt 1 ) Pt 1
$Yt = Pt Yt
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The set of goods produced in the economy is not the same as the set of goods purchased by consumers, for f two t reasons: Some of the goods are sold to firms, to the government, or to foreigners. S Some of f the th goods d are not t produced d d domestically but are imported from abroad.
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Figure 2-4 yields two conclusions: The CPI and the GDP deflator move together most of the time. In most years, the two inflation rates differ by less than 1%. There are clear exceptions, however. In 1979 and d 1980, 1980 the th increase i in i the th CPI was significantly larger than the increase in the GDP deflator.
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Economists care about inflation for two reasons: During periods of inflation, not all prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation affects income distribution. distrib tion Inflation leads to other distortions.
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2-3 The Short Run, the Medium Run, and the Long Run
The level of aggregate output in an economy is determined by: demand in the short run, say, a few years, the level of technology, the capital stock, and the labor force in the medium run, say, a decade or so, factors such as education, education research, research saving, and the quality of government in the long run, say, a half century or more.
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The book is organized into three parts: A core which has three parts the short run, th medium the di run, and d th the l long run. Three extensions which explore the role of expectations, closed economies, and expansion and recessions. A deeper look at the role of microeconomic policy.
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Key Terms
national income and product accounts aggregate output gross domestic product, (GDP) gross national product, g p , (GNP) ( ) intermediate good final good value added nominal GDP real GDP real GDP in chained (2000) dollars dollar GDP, GDP in current dollars GDP in terms of goods, goods GDP in constant dollars, GDP adjusted for inflation, GDP in 2000 dollars real GDP per capita GDP growth expansions recessions hedonic pricing employment l unemployment labor force unemployment rate Current Population p Survey y( (CPS) ) not in the labor force discouraged workers participation rate underground economy inflation price level inflation rate deflation GDP deflator index number cost of living consumer price index (CPI) short run medium run long run base year
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