Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 4, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 4, 2013

Highlights
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 158,000 in March. European CPI Flash Estimate increased by 1.7 percent in April. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.4-level in the last month. Indias HSBC Services PMI dropped to 51.4-mark in prior month. UKs Construction PMI increased by 0.4 points to 47.2-mark in March. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from US which created growth concerns in the worlds largest economy. Further, expectations that Bank of Japan (BOJ) wont be able to meet the forecast which is required for the monetary policy easing acted as a negative factor for the market sentiments. US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 79,000 to 158,000 in March as against a rise of 237,000 in February. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) NonManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1.6 points to 54.4-level in March from rise of 56-mark a month ago. Indias HSBC Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined by 2.8 points to 51.4-mark in March as against a rise of 54.2-level in February.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne** CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5672.9 18801.6 14550.35 1553.7 15200.3 1983.2 58497.8 12362.2 94.45 1552.80 2677.30 7375.00 102.09 Prev. day -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 -1.1 -2.3 -0.1 0.2 3.0 -2.8 -1.4 0.0 -1.4 0.0

as on April 3, 2013 WoW 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.5 5.1 -0.1 -2.0 -3.3 -6.3 -3.5 0.9 MoM -2.5 -2.3 1.8 2.3 -4.4 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 4.4 -1.4 -6.9 -6.0 0.2 YoY 6.7 2.8 9.7 9.9 -2.7 1.9 -9.0 23.0 -10.2 -7.4 -19.5 -14.4 1.8

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of unfavorable non-farm employment change and decline in ISM nonmanufacturing PMI data. Additionally, negative US market sentiments also prevented downside movement in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.77 and closed at 82.86 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.86 54.52 54.74 54.75 Prev. day -0.3 -0.2 0.25 0.25 WoW -0.7 -0.2 0.07 0.08

as on April 3, 2013 MoM 0.9 0.5 -0.91 -0.91 YoY 4.3 -7.3 7.40 7.42

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavorable services PMI data from the country. Additionally, strength in the DX in the early part of the trade exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, fall in the domestic market sentiments in the later part of the trade acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.53 and closed at 54.52 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,232.20 crores rd ($226.55 million) as on 3 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital rd inflows stood at Rs.56,854.60 crores ($10,536.60 million) till 3 April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable services PMI data in yesterdays trade will also add downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for April 4, 2013 Support 54.65/54.54 Resistance 54.90/55.05

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 4, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak dollar index coupled with ease in worries over Cyprus bailout. Further, decline in CPI flash estimate data from Europe also supported currency. However, weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains in Euro. European Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate increased by 1.7 percent in April from earlier rise of 1.8 percent in March. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2864 and closed at 1.285 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, expectation of weak economic data from Europe may act as a negative factor. However, investors will keep an eye on ECB rate decision and ECB press conference which may keep euro under pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.00/69.80 82.90/83.10 valid for April 4, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.285 69.94 70.2 70.2 Prev. day 0.2 -0.1 0.09 0.10

as on April 3, 2013 WoW 0.5 -0.6 -0.34 -0.35 MoM -0.9 1.8 -2.42 -2.43 YoY -2.9 3.35 3.34

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.17 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak dollar index coupled with expectation among the investors that Bank of England wont increase its asset purchase facility. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with decline in countrys construction PMI from expectation capped sharp gains in the sterling pound. UKs Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.4 points to 47.2-mark in March as against a rise of 46.8-level in February. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5158 and closed at 1.5127 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note today on the back of worries over economic growth in the country coupled with strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments along with expectation of decline in Services PMI from United Kingdom may add further downside pressure on the currency. However, investors will keep a close eye on BOE official bank rate decision and Asset purchase facility. As it is expected that Asset purchase facility will be kept unchanged this may cushion sharp decline in sterling pound or even reversal in the trend. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 4, 2013 Support 82.50/82.20 Resistance

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5127 82.404 82.71 Prev. day 0.17 0.215 -0.21

as on April 3, 2013

WoW 0.0 0.14 -0.23

MoM 0.7 -0.22 -0.32

YoY -4.9 2.46 1.45

82.71

-0.21

-0.25

-0.30

1.44

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

82.90/83.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 4, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 92.69 and closed at 93.04 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook Technical Chart JPY For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, expectations that BOJ will not be able to meet its forecast which is required for monetary policy easing will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 4, 2013 Support 58.40/58.25 Resistance 58.70/58.95 Last 93.04 0.5861 58.58 58.60 Prev day -0.4 0.53 0.13 0.16 as on April 3, 2013 WoW -1.5 1.65 1.03 1.07 MoM -1.1 -0.10 -1.47 -1.46 YoY 12.3 -4.01 -5.67 -5.62

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on April 3, 2013

Indicator FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate BOJ Press Conference Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Services PMI Spanish 10-y Bond Auction French 10-y Bond Auction Asset Purchase Facility Official Bank Rate MPC Rate Statement Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Unemployment Claims FOMC Member Evans Speaks Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks FOMC Member George Speaks Country US Japan Japan Japan UK Europe Europe UK Europe Europe UK UK UK Europe Europe US US US US Time (IST) 2:30am Tentative Tentative Tentative 4 -5
th th

Actual -

Forecast <0.10% 0.2% 44.3 43.4 51.4 375B 0.50% 0.75% 354K -

Previous <0.10% 0.5% 44.7 43.6 51.8 4.90/1.9 2.10/2.2 375B 0.50% 0.75% 357K -

Impact Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium High High Medium High High High High High High Medium High Medium

12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm Tentative Tentative 4:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 5:15pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:15pm 8.00pm 10:00pm

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