Climate change Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods

ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused by factors that include oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics and volcanic eruptions, and human-induced alterations of the natural world; these latter effects are currently causing global warming, and "climate change" is often used to describe human-specific impacts. Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and theoretical models. Borehole temperature profiles, ice cores, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes, stable isotope and other sediment analyses, and sea level records serve to provide a climate record that spans the geologic past. More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. Physically based general circulation models are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change. Terminology The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.[1] Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nio, do not represent climate change. The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes.[2] In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming. Within scientific journals, global warming refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels will affect.[3] Causes On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the sun and the rate at which it is lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate

of Earth. This energy is distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the climates of different regions. Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms".[4] These include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcings, while others respond more quickly. Forcing mechanisms can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External forcing mechanisms can be either natural (e.g., changes in solar output) or anthropogenic (e.g., increased emissions of greenhouse gases). Whether the initial forcing mechanism is internal or external, the response of the climate system might be fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash reflecting sunlight), slow (e.g. thermal expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden loss of albedo in the arctic ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of the water). Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly, but the full response to forcing mechanisms might not be fully developed for centuries or even longer. Internal forcing mechanisms Natural changes in the components of Earth's climate system and their interactions are the cause of internal climate variability, or "internal forcings." Scientists generally define the five components of earth's climate system to include atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere (restricted to the surface soils, rocks, and sediments), and biosphere.[5][not in citation given] Ocean variability Main article: Thermohaline circulation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation 1925 to 2010 The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system, some changes in it occurring at longer timescales than in the atmosphere, massing hundreds of times more and having very high thermal inertia (such as the ocean depths still lagging today in temperature adjustment from the Little Ice Age).[clarification needed][6] Short-term fluctuations (years to a few decades) such as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation. Tens of millions of years ago, continental plate movement formed a land-free gap around Antarctica, allowing formation of the ACC which keeps warm waters away from Antarctica. External forcing mechanisms

Increase in atmospheric CO2 levels

Milankovitch cycles from 800,000 years ago in the past to 800,000 years in the future.

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years Orbital variations Main article: Milankovitch cycles Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods,[7] their

correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara,[7] and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[8] The IPCC notes that Milankovitch cycles drove the ice age cycles; CO2 followed temperature change "with a lag of some hundreds of years"; and that as a feedback amplified temperature change.[9] The depths of the ocean have a lag time in changing temperature (thermal inertia on such scale). Upon seawater temperature change, the solubility of CO2 in the oceans changed, as well as other factors impacting air-sea CO2 exchange.[10] Solar output Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes. The period of extraordinarily few sunspots in the late 17th century was the Maunder minimum. The Sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate. Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today. If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean[11][12] and Archean[13][11] eons, leading to what is known as the faint young Sun paradox.[14] Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist.[15] Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed. The Great Oxygenation Event oxygenation of the atmosphere around 2.4 billion years ago was the most notable alteration. Over the next five billion

years the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending any life on Earth that survives until that time. Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle[16] and longer-term modulations.[17] Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age,[18] and some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves. Research indicates that solar variability has had effects including the Maunder minimum from 1645 to 1715 A.D., part of the Little Ice Age from 1550 to 1850 A.D. that was marked by relative cooling and greater glacier extent than the centuries before and afterward.[19][20] Some studies point toward solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming, and climate may be influenced by the sum of all effects (solar variation, anthropogenic radiative forcings, etc.).[21][22] Interestingly, a 2010 study[23] suggests, that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations. In an Aug 2011 Press Release,[24] CERN announced the publication in the Nature journal the initial results from its CLOUD experiment. The results indicate that ionisation from cosmic rays significantly enhances aerosol formation in the presence of sulphuric acid and water, but in the lower atmosphere where ammonia is also required, this is insufficient to account for aerosol formation and additional trace vapours must be involved. The next step is to find more about these trace vapours, including whether they are of natural or human origin. Further information: Cosmic ray#Role_in_climate_change Magnetic field strength Some recent (2006+) analysis suggests that global climate is correlated with the strength of Earth's magnetic field.[25][26] Volcanism

In atmospheric temperature from 1979 to 2010, determined by MSU NASA satellites, effects appear from aerosols released by major volcanic eruptions (El Chichn and Pinatubo). El Nio is a separate event, from ocean variability. Volcanic eruptions release gases and particulates into the atmosphere. Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century[27] (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta[28]) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 C (0.9 F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer.[29] Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.[30] Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. The US Geological Survey estimates are that volcanic emissions are at a much lower level than the effects of current human activities, which generate 100300 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[31] A review of published studies indicates that annual volcanic emissions of carbon dioxide, including amounts released from mid-ocean ridges, volcanic arcs, and hot spot volcanoes, are only the equivalent of 3 to 5 days of human caused output. The annual amount put out by human activities may be greater than the amount released by supererruptions, the most recent of which was the Toba eruption in Indonesia 74,000 years ago.[32] Although volcanoes are technically part of the lithosphere, which itself is part of the climate system, the IPCC explicitly defines volcanism as an external forcing agent.[33] Plate tectonics Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[34]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover.[35][36] During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360 million years ago, plate tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation.[37] Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.[38] The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands. Human influences Main article: Global warming Main article: Climate change mitigation In the context of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are human activities which affect the climate. The scientific consensus on climate change is "that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities,"[39] and it "is largely irreversible."[40] Physical evidence for and examples of climatic change

Comparisons between Asian Monsoons from 200 A.D. to 2000 A.D. (staying in the background on other plots), Northern Hemisphere temperature, Alpine glacier extent (vertically inverted as marked), and human history as noted by the U.S. NSF.

Arctic temperature anomalies over a 100 year period as estimated by NASA. Typical high monthly variance can be seen, while longer-term averages highlight trends. Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirectclimatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores,[42] dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology. Temperature measurements and proxies The instrumental temperature record from surface stations was supplemented by radiosonde balloons, extensive atmospheric monitoring by the mid-20th century, and, from the 1970s on, with global satellite data as well. The 18O/16O ratio in calcite and ice core samples used to deduce ocean temperature in the distant past is an example of a temperature proxy method, as are other climate metrics noted in subsequent categories. Historical and archaeological evidence Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and agricultural patterns.[43] Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilizations.[43]

Decline in thickness of glaciers worldwide over the past half-century Glaciers Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change.[44] Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As temperatures warm, glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt; the converse is also true. Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability in temperature, precipitation, and englacial and subglacial hydrology can strongly determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular season. Therefore, one must average over a decadal or longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to smooth out the local short-term variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to climate. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2, and preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid-1980s to present.[45]

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.[46] Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, DansgaardOeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing. Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of materialincluding organic matter, quartz, and potassium that may be datedrecording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be ascertained.

This time series, based on satellite data, shows the annual Arctic sea ice minimum since 1979. The September 2010 extent was the third lowest in the satellite record. Arctic sea ice loss Main articles: Polar ice packs and Climate change in the Arctic The decline in Arctic sea ice, both in extent and thickness, over the last several decades is further evidence for rapid climate change.[47] Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface. It covers millions of square miles in the polar regions, varying with the seasons. In the Arctic, some sea ice remains year after year, whereas almost all Southern Ocean or Antarctic sea ice melts away and

reforms annually. Satellite observations show that Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average.[48]

This video summarizes how climate change, associated with increased carbon dioxide levels, has affected plant growth. Vegetation A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate. Some changes in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2. A gradual increase in warmth in a region will lead to earlier flowering and fruiting times, driving a change in the timing of life cycles of dependent organisms. Conversely, cold will cause plant bio-cycles to lag.[49] Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances.[50][51] An example of this occurred during the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse (CRC), an extinction event 300 million years ago. At this time vast rainforests covered the equatorial region of Europe and America. Climate change devastated these tropical rainforests, abruptly fragmenting the habitat into isolated 'islands' and causing the extinction of many plant and animal species.[50] Satellite data available in recent decades indicates that global terrestrial net primary production increased by 6% from 1982 to 1999, with the largest portion of that increase in tropical ecosystems, then decreased by 1% from 2000 to 2009.[52][53] Pollen analysis Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have

pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different layers of sediment in lakes, bogs, or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities. These changes are often a sign of a changing climate.[54][55] As an example, palynological studies have been used to track changing vegetation patterns throughout the Quaternary glaciations[56] and especially since the last glacial maximum.[57]

Top: Arid ice age climate Middle: Atlantic Period, warm and wet Bottom: Potential vegetation in climate now if not for human effects like agriculture.[58] Precipitation Past precipitation can be estimated in the modern era with the global network of precipitation gauges. Surface coverage over oceans and remote areas is relatively sparse, but, reducing reliance on interpolation, satellite data has been available

since the 1970s.[59] Quantification of climatological variation of precipitation in prior centuries and epochs is less complete but approximated using proxies such as marine sediments, ice cores, cave stalagmites, and tree rings.[60] Climatological temperatures substantially affect precipitation. For instance, during the Last Glacial Maximum of 18,000 years ago, thermal-driven evaporation from the oceans onto continental landmasses was low, causing large areas of extreme desert, including polar deserts (cold but with low rates of precipitation).[58] In contrast, the world's climate was wetter than today near the start of the warm Atlantic Period of 8000 years ago.[58] Estimated global land precipitation increased by approximately 2% over the course of the 20th century, though the calculated trend varies if different time endpoints are chosen, complicated by ENSO and other oscillations, including greater global land precipitation in the 1950s and 1970s than the later 1980s and 1990s despite the positive trend over the century overall.[59][61][62] Similar slight overall increase in global river runoff and in average soil moisture has been perceived.[61] Dendroclimatology Dendroclimatology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine past climate variations.[63] Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-thanideal growing conditions. Ice cores Analysis of ice in a core drilled from an ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continues to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions. Animals Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly

over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.[64] Similarly, the historical abundance of various fish species has been found to have a substantial relationship with observed climatic conditions.[65] Changes in the primary productivity of autotrophs in the oceans can affect marine food webs.[66] Sea level change Main articles: Sea level and Current sea level rise Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a longterm average. More recently, altimeter measurements in combination with accurately determined satellite orbits have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.[67] To measure sea levels prior to instrumental measurements, scientists have dated coral reefs that grow near the surface of the ocean, coastal sediments, marine terraces, ooids in limestones, and nearshore archaeological remains. The predominant dating methods used are uranium series and radiocarbon, with cosmogenic radionuclides being sometimes used to date terraces that have experienced relative sea level fall. Global warming: ten most affected areas As scientists claim that the snows of Kilimanjaro are disappearing, where else in the world are the effects of climate change being most keenly felt? Bangladesh People living in the flood-prone delta nation are feeling the full force of climate change. Frequent flooding wipes out crops, spreads disease and destroys homes. The UK government's Department for International Development (DFID) has pledged 75m over the next five years to help the people of Bangladesh cope with the impact of global warming. Sudan Rising temperatures are causing the Sahara Desert to expand, eating into the farmland on the edge of the wastelands and causing immense pressure for food.

Rainfall in the northern regions of Sudan, including war-torn Darfur, is down by 30 per cent over the past 40 years, with the Sahara advancing by well over a mile every year. Scientists believe that Darfur is an example of climate change conflict, with tribal disputes being exacerbated by increased demand for scarce fertile land and water reserves. Related Articles Caribbean Warmer seas are believed to be bolstering the power of hurricanes, which rip through the Caribbean regions with increasing frequency and savagery. Hurricane Katrina swept through New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,600 people and causing an estimated $40 billion of damages, while research published in this summer in the science journal Nature suggests that hurricanes in the Atlantic are more frequent than at any time in the last 1,000 years. Australia Australia's arid climate means it has always been prone to forest fires, but scientists believe the ferocity of recent blazes is linked to climate change. The temperature has been rising steadily since the 1950s and this is increasing the intensity and frequency of outbreaks. Siberia In one of the world's last wildernesses, global warming is causing profound changes to the lives of its people. Winters that used to reach -50 degrees are now a comparatively mild -30, which is causing the permafrost to melt. Arctic houses are subsiding, and the nomadic people of the tundra find that their annual migrations are disrupted by unseasonably warm temperatures or unexpected snow falls. Tuvalu The low-lying Pacific islands of Tuvalu face the very real threat that they could be wiped out by climate change. The highest point of the islands reaches only four and a half metres above sea level, and the coral upon which the islands are built is seeping sea water, making much of the land too salty to farm. Great Barrier Reef

Climatologists believe that Australia is experiencing "accelerated climate change", which puts the vast Great Barrier Reef at severe risk. Rising ocean temperatures cause bleaching of the coral, when the plants expel the tiny animals living inside them and turning into colourless calcium skeletons.

Alps The much-loved European winter playground is increasingly under threat from warmer temperatures, disrupting the snowfall and causing the ice to melt. Scientists from the Convention for the Protection of the Alps published a report in June this year claiming that the Alps were gradually being split in two, with the southern regions receiving 10 per cent less precipitation over the past 100 years and the northern regions facing flooding and landslides. Britain Although climate change in Britain may not be as keenly felt as in Bangladesh or Tuvalu, scientists still maintain its effects are noticeable. The National Trust warns of threats to historic properties and estates from flooding and storm surges, and highlights the worrying loss of wildlife habitats. Climate change in New England

Moving image of a nor'easter, or major storm sytem Source: NOAA New England has already started to feel the effects of global climate change. Snow cover is decreasing and spring arrives earlier. Scientists predict that we may be headed for a Boston climate much like that of Charlotte, North Carolina, or

Atlanta, Georgia. Find out what is in store for Massachusetts and the other New England statesand what could happen to Boston. How could coastal flooding affect us? And what is the likelihood of extreme weather such as noreasters and ice storms. Learn how our geographywith our vulnerable wetlands and coastal habitatsmay determine our destiny. Much of the information in this section is sourced from Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions, a report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment 2007 Union of Concerned Scientists. Full length presentations are available for download from the Changing Climates, Changing Coasts Symposium, co-hosted by the Aquarium and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. How is New England being impacted by climate change? Satellite zoom out from Boston Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio Part of New Englands charm is the distinct four seasonsa climate that includes crisp falls, snow-filled winters and temperate springs and summers. The climate has started to change, however. Snow cover is decreasing and spring arrives earlier. And the number of extremely hot summer days has been increasing. According to a report from the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) team, since 1970, the Northeast has been warming at a rate of nearly .5 degrees F per decade, with winter temperatures rising faster, at a rate of 1.3 degrees F per decade from 1970 to 2000, all changes consistent with those expected to be caused by global warming. 2010 was the warmest year on record. New England has clearly warmed since the end of the 19th century, with winter temperatures increasing more than summer temperatures, and with the greatest warming taking place in New Hampshire, Vermont and Rhode Island. Annual precipitation has increased. While more rain has fallen in intense storms, snowfall in northern New England has decreased since 1953. According to the New England Climate Coalition, temperature increases could affect New Englands brilliant fall colors as trees migrate north or die out, and maple syrup production may be jeopardized because sap flow depends on freezing nights and warm days. And the ski industry will face the threat of less natural snowfall and the inability to produce artificial snow, which requires temperatures

of 28 degrees or less. Under a high emissions scenario, for example, only western Maine is projected to retain a reliable ski season. Back to top

How is climate change likely to affect Massachusetts and the other New England states? According to the New England Climate Coalition, these are some of the impacts of climate change in Massachusetts: Over the last century, the average temperature in Amherst, Massachusetts, has increased 2 degrees F. Precipitation has increased by up to 20 percent in many parts of the state. By 2100, temperatures could increase by about 4 degrees in winter and spring and about 5 degrees in summer and fall. Precipitation by 2100 is estimated to increase by about 10 percent in spring and summer, 15 percent in fall, and 20 to 60 percent in winter. The amount of precipitation on extremely wet or snowy days in winter is likely to increase while the frequency of extremely hot days in summer would also increase. Heat-related deaths in Boston during a typical summer could increase 50 percent by 2050. The potential for transmission of diseases such as malaria, Dengue fever, West Nile virus and Lyme disease is expanded with warming as the habitats of diseasecarrying insects expand. Warmer seas could contribute to the increased intensity, duration and extent of harmful algal blooms, which damage habitat and shellfish nurseries and can be toxic to humans. Massachusetts loses an average of 65 acres to rising sea levels each year. Much of this loss occurs along the south-facing coast between Rhode Island and the outer shore of Cape Cod, including Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. In Boston, the sea level has risen by 11 inches over the last 100 years (both because of climate change and land subsidence) and could rise another 2 to 6 feet by 2100. The cost of sand replenishment to protect the coast of Massachusetts from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 is estimated at $490 million to $2.6 billion. The

New England Climate Coalition also provides information about potential impacts to Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. Back to top

Projections for Boston from the Climate Choices report Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast (pdf 7.5 MB) (Click images to enlarge) What is the likely impact of global warming on the Northeast and on Boston?

More than half the countrys population now lives along the nations coasts, and one third lives in the highly populated coastal areas of the Northeast. The area between Boston and Philadelphia is one of the most populous areas of the country, with extensive infrastructure, buildings and businesses. Global climate change affects the coastal areas with rising air temperature, increasing rainfall, rising ocean temperatures and rising sea levels, which lead to increased coastal flooding. In addition to sea level rises, much of the Northeast shoreline is gradually sinking, increasing the effects of rising ocean waters. In Boston, if the number of 100-year storms increases, more buildings and infrastructure will be at risk of being inundated by rising waters during intense weather such as hurricanes and noreasters. While many of Bostons neighborhoods are protected from wave action and flooding by seawalls, they have not been fully tested by extreme weather conditions and rising sea levels. Many of Bostons neighborhoods and landmarksincluding the New England Aquariumare built in areas that are highly susceptible to flooding and the effects of extreme weather. For example, under projected 100-year storms (based on a high emissions scenario), many of Boston's best-known landmarks are threatened, including Faneuil Hall, Quincy Market, North Station, Fan Pier, Copley Church, John Hancock Tower and the Public Garden. Back to top

How could coastal flooding affect Boston and the Northeast? Sea levels are rising inexorably, with significant impacts to the Northeast. Our highly developed coastline, barrier beaches and coastal ecology are all vulnerable to rising sea levels. Sea level rise would swamp low-lying coastal areas and increase erosion of our shoreline and loss of wetlands. The areas most vulnerable to shoreline erosion and beach loss include parts of south Cape Cod, most of Nantucket Island and the eastern portions of Marthas Vineyard. The impact of storm waves intensify the effects of rising sea levels, eating away at sand beaches and low-lying wetlands. In addition, the bluffs and cliffs of the New England shoreline will be eroded at their base, causing the cliffs to crumble.

Scientists use a benchmark, the 100-year flood, to describe how frequently a major flood could occur in the future as sea levels rise. They look at the historical record to determine the frequency with which major storms have occurred in the past and then estimate the likelihood that such a storm, or a more severe storm, will occur in the future. In any one year, for example, there is a 1 percent likelihood that a 100year flood will occur. According to current estimates, Boston can expect a coastal flood equivalent to todays 100-year flood every two to four years on average by mid-century and almost annually by the end of the century. (This is a more extreme estimate than New York Citys for example, where a 100-year flood can be expected every 46 to 50 years.)

Satellite image of New England snow cover after a blizzard Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio What is the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves, noreasters and ice storms in New England? Global warming is predicted to increase the frequency of severe storms in New England at the same time that sea level rise magnifies their impact on low-lying coastlines and islands. Climate change is expected to dramatically increase the number of extremely hot days. The average number of days each year with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees has doubled over the past 45 years. By late-century, many northeastern cities can expect 60 or more days per year over 90 degrees under a higher emissions scenario and 30 or more such days under a lower emissions scenario.

The Northeast is projected to see a steady increase in precipitation, with total increase of around 10 percent, about four inches per year, by the end of the century. It is winter precipitation that is rising fastest, with more precipitation expected to fall as rain rather than snow. Rainfall is expected to become more intense and periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent. Our coast is susceptible to a variety of storms from hurricanes to noreasters, which are lower-energy storms that occur more frequently, last longer and cover more area, causing significant damage. Noreasters are named for the strong winds that generally hit the coasts from the northeast between October and April. Since the 1970s, noreasters have struck New England more frequently and with greater intensity. As intense storms reach shallow coastal waters, they frequently generate storm surges, wind-driven swells that increase sea levels further. When these occur at the same time as high tides, the damage can be substantial. Storm surges wash over barrier beaches and cut inlets through them. In 2007, for example, a noreaster cut an opening through the Nauset Beach peninsula on Cape Cod. These openings then expose the shoreline behind the barrier beach to additional wave damage and erosion.

How will climate change affect our wetlands? Wetlands are a buffer for coastal areas, protecting them from waves and erosion, filtering out pollutants before they reach the oceans, serving as a breeding ground for fish and shellfish and providing habitats for birds and other animals. In particular, a large portion of the fish and shellfish eventually caught off the Northeast coast were hatched in estuaries and wetlands. These include lobsters, clams, scallops, menhaden, herring and some sharks. Similarly, bluefish and striped bass depend on wetlands for the smaller fish they eat. Marshes can maintain their elevations if the sea level rise is gradual enough. If however the rise is too rapid, the marshes could be inundated, leaving formerly protected coastal areas vulnerable to flooding and erosion.

Seventy-Four Percent of America: Climate Change Is Affecting Weather in U.S.

Society, throughout history, has embraced "truths" later revealed to be false: The Earth is flat, the Sun revolves around the Earth and, now, climate change is a hoax. Strong evidence -- including the fact that the Arctic ice melt has reached the lowest point in history -- shows that climate change is real. Yet Republican members of Congress still refuse to take meaningful steps to address what can be done to protect our planet from this growing threat. The first eight months of 2012 were the hottest on record since record-keeping began in 1895. June, July and August produced the third-hottest summer ever recorded. According to CNN, "the nation as a whole is averaging 4 degrees Fahrenheit above the average temperature for the year," a full degree higher than in 2006, which, until now, had the hottest first eight months of any year. We are experiencing the effects of these ever-more-extreme conditions daily. This summer, 40 out of 50 states had drought-designated counties with conditions severe enough to be eligible for federal aid. Almost two-thirds of the nation experienced moderate to severe drought conditions, a 30 percent increase from last year, when one-third of the country witnessed such conditions. Even more staggering, 80 percent of our agricultural land has been affected by drought, which means higher food prices at a time when Americans are already under financial strain. Over the past few years, we have witnessed increasing numbers of wildfires, violent hurricanes and tornadoes, and unprecedented drought. Americans understand what's happening, and they want us to do something about it. "A large and growing majority of Americans," at 74 percent, say "global warming is affecting weather in the United States", according to an October report by George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication study. A second report from the same center shows that 72 percent of Americans believe that developing clean energies should be a national priority. The public is on our side here. It's a wonder to me why my Republican colleagues in Congress continue to deny the reality of a warming planet and the role of humans in causing it. Maybe they don't see the opportunities that come with addressing the problem head-on.

We could have a new dawn for American innovation and technology. But Republican leaders would prefer instead to bury their heads deep in the sand, allowing other countries, like the Netherlands, to lead the way on green technologies and actionable solutions -- while America watches from the sidelines. Americans want Congress, as policymakers, to take action. This is what we do. We are a nation that stands up to our challenges and faces our problems, finding creative solutions and turning problems into opportunities. We can do that now. By developing green technologies and renewable energy, we are investing in our future, a tradition that has proven successful for America. America's wind energy program, for example, had a banner year in 2011. Bolstered by tax credits, which Republicans want to rescind, it brought America into the number two spot for fastest-growing wind industry in the world after China. Investing in new frontiers and technologies would greatly benefit America -irrespective of climate change predictions. Renewable energy is the future. It has the potential to create jobs, marketplace demand and a thriving industry. In addition, the United States can be a global leader, blazing a path for others to follow. We would be remiss not to embrace the challenge. Climate change is not a hoax, a myth or a tool for political leverage. We can't ignore the evidence. It is the greatest threat to our future, our children's future and the planet's future. It is also a unique invitation for innovation and achievement. Renewable energy is the way of the future -- whether or not we are the ones leading the charge. We must not allow America to get left behind.
Which regions will be most affected by climate change? Created by admin Updated at 1291233123 Tags:

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In which regions will agriculture and food security be most affected by climate change? That depends on how you define affected. Climate change can affect agricultural outcomes on many levels. Climate change can decrease (or in some cases increase) yields, which in turn impact farmer livelihood. Climate change affects world prices. This means that the value of production, which influences trade position and foreign exchange generation, and the balance of agricultural trade, which impacts national fiscal balances and food security, can be impacted by climate change. Finally, climate change can affect human nutrition, which can be measured, albeit imperfectly, from food availability. In the research monograph Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 we consider four different climate change scenarios. Our results reveal that across these scenarios regional cereal yields will be anywhere from 10 percent higher (East Africa in the MIR A1B scenario) to 35 percent lower (North America in the MIR A1B scenario) in 2050 with climate change than in a perfect mitigation scenario, where all greenhouse gas emissions are halted and the inertia in the climate system is overcome. For most regions of the world, cereal yields (and root and tuber yields, which are equally if not more important for many of the worlds poor) look to be higher with some climate change scenarios than with perfect mitigation, and lower with other scenarios, demonstrating the high uncertainty of regional outcomes. A good way to capture how climate change could impact different regions that considers both domestic production and international prices is to look at balance of agricultural trade. Our results indicate that among net food exporters (in 2050) 3, Southeast Asia will have net exports most positively impacted by climate change (38-56 percent higher depending on the scenario). Central America looks to have net exporters most negatively affected (22 to 42 percent declines). North American net exports could be pushed either way on the order of up to 30 percent, depending on the climate scenario. Among net importers (in 2050) North Africa will be by far the most impacted by climate change, with net imports 230 to 480 percent higher with climate change than with perfect mitigation. Central Africa will see imports most diminished with climate change, from 45-62 lower percent compared with perfect mitigation. Two very interesting cases are Southern Europe (a net exporter in 2010) and Western Africa (a net importer in 2010). With perfect mitigation, Southern Europe will continue to be a net exporter in 2050 and Western Africa will continue to be a net

importer. However, with climate change either one could end up switching from importer to exporter, or vice versa. One consistent finding across the four climate change scenarios we investigate is that there will be less food per person worldwide in 2050 with climate change than with perfect mitigation. Climate change will most drastically impact daily percapita calorie availability in Western Africa, from 240-344 less calories per-person per-day, although the effects also look to be severe in Central, East, and North Africa and East Asia. That climate change will decrease food availability to populations that already have some of the lowest consumption levels is a major concern. Climate change will have the smallest impact on per-capita calorie consumption in Oceana, throughout Europe, and in South America, with decreases of less than 200 calories per day. So, which region will be most impacted by climate change? In terms of yields and trade, the Middle East and North Africa look poised to take the biggest hit. North America, whose production weighs heavily on world prices, stands to be impacted by climate change, but the direction of the impacts are highly uncertain. In the end, however, Africa will be most impacted by climate change based on the metric that matters the most; food availability after trade. Read more in Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options. You can also test these results yourself on the interactive map visualization tool, Food Security CASE Maps. 1. The regions we use here are Central Africa, Eastern Africa, Northern Africa, Southern Africa, Western Africa, Caribbean and Central America, North America, South America, Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Western Europe, and Oceania. The list of countries in each of the regions can be found in the monograph appendix 1.[back] 2. MIROC and CSIRO global circulation model results using the A1B and B1 scenarios.[back] 3. Our results indicate that most net importing regions today will remain net importers in 2050, and the same goes for net exporting regions. The exception is Central Asia, which is currently a net importer but will be a net exporter in 2050.[back] Topics:

Climate Change http://www.ifpri.org/blog/which-regions-will-be-most-affected-climate-change