KIRKBY INTERNATIONAL COLLEGE

INTRODUCTION TO ACCADEMIC WRITING

CLIMATE CHANGE ESSAY
Climate Change And Shortage Of Agricultural Production

FINAL DRAFT

KHAIRUL HAFIZD BIN MOHD ASRI 930902-02-5209 PLPPIP2011/023/KIC WILLIAM WORDSWORTH

Climate Change and Shortage of Agricultural Production

Global climate has been changing and it will still continue to change. In a long period of time, climate fluctuation can be a shift in common climate for certain area to occur. Climate change or changes in global climate pattern had taken place from the mid to late 20th century onwards (Oxford Dictionary, 2010). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),(2008) claims that earth has been rising in temperature about 0.75 Degrees Celsius since early of 20th century. The organization also said that human activities are the major contribution for climate change to take place around the world. In addition they also stated that along with the raising in temperature, the carbon dioxide gas also increase in the atmosphere as the effect from industrial development. A research from Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in late 2002, state that since the Industrial Revolution the concentration of carbon dioxide gas has been increasing by about 40 percent in the atmosphere. In addition to that, the report also predicts that the concentration of carbon dioxide gas in Earths atmosphere today is higher than any time for the last 800,000 years. Climate change has given many negative impacts toward human and the surrounding environment. The United State Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), (2005) in their website believes that climate change might increase or decrease rainfall, influence agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forest and other ecosystem, or even impact the energy supply. The ability of different public and environmental systems to migrate or adapt to change will vary over the time as the impact from extension of climate change on individual region as claims by IPCC (2008). Agricultural practices are very sensitive toward climate, temperature and humidity. Therefore agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Bugs and weed continue to germinate while abundance of crop will eventually diminish due to high temperature. Changes in rainfall patterns will give effect such as short-run crop failure and long-run production declines, as explained by Climate Change, Agricultural and Food Security (CCAFS) in year 2000. Climate changes affect human well-being and its

agricultural activities by raising the earth temperature, incurring excessive production cost and directly threatening livestock. The Earth temperature already increases due to climate changes and the changes are not uniform nor will be confined to temperature, as stated by DECC (2002). John F. B Mitchell (2003) claims that stimulated warming is the largest in high latitudes in winter and smallest over sea ice in summer, with little seasonal variation in the tropics. The author also expresses that climate change will likely cause drought to be more often and change some area to be too hot for plantation. In addition, greater crop water demand, more variable rainfall and extreme climate events such as heat waves, floods and droughts can also cause agricultural activities possible to be carried out. International Food Policy and Research Institution (INFPRI), in year (2007) indicates that developing country especially in South Asia will be mainly hit hard by the declines for the most important crops such as maize, rice and wheat. In the other hand, climate changes lead to the increasing of the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide which will be defectively affect the agricultural activities. John F. B. Mitchell describes that carbon dioxide and other trace gases have been raised since the Industrial Revolution which can increase irradiative troposphere and surface warming by about 2 W m. In

2008, a pair of researcher from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Colombia University found that rising in temperatures would somewhat boost up the crop yields to a certain point. They also showed that, when the temperature continues to rise above critical entrance, the crop would plunge dramatically. This proves that in certain level of greenhouse gas emission, average temperatures are predicted to increase well above the critical level. Another study that has been published in Science magazine in 2011 confirms that corn and wheat were 3.8 percent and 5.5 percent respectively, lower than they would been without climate changes. As a result of climate change, food production is expected to decline due to less productivity and more competition for natural resources. Globally, this would increase the risk of hunger, especially for poor people in rural communities. Therefore it is undeniable that human well-being and agricultural activities are directly affected by climate changes.

In year 2009 INFPRI had published an article about the effect of climate change on food security. They said that with the rapid change in global climate, combined with the growth of the world population, source of food and availability of food have become serious problem. Research from IFPRI in (2009) postulates that insecure food problem had been facing by most of developing country. They research also claims that back in 2005, almost half of the economically active populations in developing countries depend on agriculture for a living. They also emphasize that, recently almost 75 percent of the poor live in rural areas had facing the decline in agricultural activities that coherent with increasing the world population causing to high food consumption. The researches from IFPRI also state several impacts that caused by this problem in term of cost. They claim that the first problem is the increasing the cost of production which later will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops. Aside from that, they also predict that high temperature might cause new disease which is harmful to the crops. EPA (2009) indicates that many weeds, pests and fungi thrive under warmer temperatures. Therefore farmers need to spend extra cost to deal with these diseases. EPA (2009) also reported that over 11 billion US Dollar per year were spend by the farmer to fight weed which is a new problem to be face by the farmer. Decline of crops production will lead to the increasing of additional price for the most important agricultural crops such as rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. A group of researcher from University of Bonn in year 2012, state that The World Bank Food Price Index had rose by about 50 percent from June 2011 and attained its 2008 hike. A study by Von Braun and Torero in 2009 also suggests that climate change is one of the root causes for the recent high and volatile food prices. A drop in production due to extreme weather event in many countries causes a significant in local food prices. Based on article by FAO (2007), developing country will be worst affected by climate changes pressure on food production and pricing because they might dependence on imported food. Therefore climate change may make worse the impacts of weeds, pests and diseases, through increasing occurrences and changes in their geographic distribution which can lead to increasing price production.

Climate change also can lead toward heat wave which is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather. Dr James Hansen (2007) mention in his new peer-reviewed study that was published by the National Academy of Sciences, stresses that average global temperature has been steadily rising due to a warming climate. He also stated that the extremes weather is becoming much more frequent and more intense worldwide. Furthermore, he also said the heat wave could affect animals both directly and circuitously. Heat stress may increase exposure to disease, reduce fertility, and reduced milk production in long term period. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) (2007) suggests that, climate change such as a sudden increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns can lead to increased dissemination of existing vector-borne diseases and macro parasites, accompanied by the emergence and circulation of new diseases such as Lyme disease, Rift Valley Fever, Chickungunya and Cryptoccocus gatti said James West (2008). This study supported by USDA (2009) which claims that some parasites and pathogens can survive more easily in the beginning of spring and summer. The study also claims that pathogens depend on moisture to thrive in certain areas with increased rainfall. The organization also said that dairy livestock such as cow, heat stress reduces the amount of milk produced, reduce milk fat and protein content, and reduce the rate of reproduction. According to Jones, RN and Hennessy (2000), High-producing dairy cows are the most susceptible to increases in the, temperature-humidity index (THI). HolsteinFriesian breed particularly will be affected on reproduction when the rate of THI is over 80. In general, all species will be affected adversely by global warming, and farm consequently production will be decline. In the other hand an article that had been published in Directgov (2012) predicts that the increase of food price is not mainly caused by climate changing. They claim that there are several other factors that affect price of main crops in global market. They said that food prices have increase in almost all countries for many reasons and many counties will be negatively affected as they are net food importers. They explain that the major factor of increasing food price globally is because of high demand of food as the populations continue to growth. Dr. Gary Peter (2011) had acknowledged that the world's population has grown by more than 800 million since 2000 and continues to

grow with more than 80 million a year in food prices has put raised in demographic perspective. The author also argues that greater food production and ways to meet the growing food demand solved the problem of population growth for a few decades. He also said that, although the majority of the population in Asia remains rural and poor, middle class growth in the region has been dramatically increased and will continue to growth does become the major consumer of food production. International Food Policy Research Institute (2008) stressed that corresponding increase in prosperity has also brought with changes in lifestyle and eating habits, particularly a demand for greater variety and more meat in the diet, leading to greater demand for agricultural resources. They also said that the demand exacerbates dramatic increases in commodity prices such as food and oil. However there is no solid evidence that support population growth lead to high price of crops production. Dr. Gary Peter (2011) claims that people able to managed and evade serious threats of widespread hunger in poor countries by expanding world grain production thus avoid the increasing in food prices. According to FAO, major rice exporters such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Egypt, have imposed strict export bans on rice to ensure that food remains available for their domestic populations and to remarkable price increases. In larger population country they had applied the method shock absorber in order to prevent increasing food price. According to Women Watch the method of shock absorber is applied when w omen also look for more part-time employment or work longer hours on top of their existing jobs and household responsibilities to earn more money for their families. They may also look for additional credit to afford food and other basic necessities, and are susceptible to get into debt because their lack of access to formal credit may force them to turn to moneylenders, pawn brokers and other sources of expensive credit. International Food Policy Research Institute (2008) confirms that in India and China to reduce the impact of rising food prices forced poor people to reduce their resource consumption by switching from meat to vegetarian diet. This has reduced price elasticity and caused a sharp rise in food prices during times of food shortages. This prove that climate change does give a great impact on global food security.

In conclusion, climate changes will affect human well-being and its agricultural activities by raising the earth temperature, incurring excessive production cost and directly threatened livestock. From my point of view, climate change does gave a great impact to human and the surrounding ecosystem. Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable addition to the germination of weeds and pests. In Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-term crop failures and long-term production decline. Farmers should be given the training, capital and adequate agricultural research to ensure they are able to adapt to climate change. Countries around the world need a new adjustment in agricultural activities such as replacing old plants with plants that are appropriate to the current climate, introduce or intensify irrigation system, and modify the soil operating system and controlling pests. Adaptation cannot be taken for granted: the progress in agriculture has always been dependent on the investments made in agricultural research and infrastructure.Thus It will help to identify, through research, specific ways that farmers now adapt to present climate variations. Success in adapting to possible future climate change will depend on a better definition of what changes will occur where, and on prudent investments, made in timely fashion, in adaptation strategies.

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