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Severe Cyclonic Storm, AILA: A Preliminary Report

Regional Specialised Meteorological CentreTropical Cyclone, New Delhi India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003

Severe Cyclonic Storm, AILA: A Preliminary Report


1. Introduction A severe cyclonic storm (SCS), AILA crossed West Bengal coast near Sagar Island between 1330 and 1430 hrs IST of 25th May 2009. It continued to move in a northerly direction across West Bengal and caused loss of about 100 human lives and left several injured. It also caused about 175 human deaths and left several injured in adjoining Bangladesh. The special features of this storm are as follows. i. The system moved in a near northerly direction throughout its life period.

ii. Its intensification was rapid only a few hours before landfall. iii. The system maintained intensity of the cyclone even upto 15 hours after the landfall. iv. It is the first cyclone in the month of May to cross West Bengal after 1989. Considering all the above, a preliminary report has been prepared on various aspects of cyclone AILA. The brief life history depicting genesis, intensification, movement and landfall characteristics are presented and discussed in Sec. 2. The utilities of satellite, Radar and automatic weather stations are also analysed and discussed in this section. The disastrous weather including heavy rainfall, strong wind and storm surge due to the severe cyclonic storm, AILA are presented and discussed in Sec.3. The damage due to cyclone is presented in Sec.4. The summary of warnings issued by IMD is presented in Sec.5. The verification of forecasts and warnings is presented in Sec.6. The performance of NWP models is discussed in Sec.7. 2. Life history of AILA The genesis of AILA is described in Sec.2.1. The intensification, movement and landfall are analysed and discussed in Sec.2.2. 2.1. Genesis Southwest monsoon set in over Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal on 20th May 2009. Under its influence, the southerly surge over the region increased. It resulted in increase in the horizontal pressure gradient and the northsouth wind gradient over the region. Hence the lower level horizontal convergence
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and relative vorticity increased gradually over the southeast Bay of Bengal. It led to the development of the upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto midtropospheric level on 21st May over the southeast Bay of Bengal and associated convective cloud clusters persisted over the region. Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation, a low pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal over 22nd May morning. It lay over east central & adjoining west central Bay of Bengal on 22nd evening. It concentrated into a depression and lay centered at 1130 hours IST of 23rd near Lat. 16.5 N/Long 88.0 E about 600 kms south of Sagar Island. The track of the system is shown in Fig.1. The best track parameters of the system which is subject to modification based on annual cyclone review are shown in Table 1. According to INSAT imageries, a low level circulation developed over South Bay of Bengal on 21st May 2009 at 0830 hrs IST. It developed into a Vortex with center 11.50 N/85.50 E and intensity T1.0 at 1730 hr IST of the same day. It gained intensity of T1.5 corresponding to depression with centre 16.5N/88.0E at 1130 hrs IST of 23rd. It was the shear pattern at the time of cyclogenesis with maximum convection lying to the southwest of the system centre. The INSAT imagery of the system at the stage of depression is shown in Fig.2. Considering the environmental factors for cyclogenesis, the wind shear between the layers (150-300) hpa & (700-925) hPa was 05-10 knots on 21st and 22nd May according to METEOSAT observations. It became 10-20 knots on 23rd. However, it continued to be 05-10 knots in the northeast sector of the system. The sea surface temperature (SST) was warmer (about 280 C) over central and north Bay of Bengal, being 0.5 to 10 C above normal. There was maximum lower level convergence to the south east of the system centre. Similarly, the upper level divergence and the lower level relative vorticity was higher around the system centre. The system could gain upper level divergence as the upper tropospheric ridge roughly ran along 170. In association with an anti-cyclonic circulation located near lat. 170 N and long. 940 E. The quickscat derived wind speed was about 10-15 knots on 21st and 22nd. It became 15-20 knots on 23rd. However, the windsat observations indicated 25-30 knots wind on 23rd in association with the system. The wind speed was relatively stronger in the southeast sector due to strong southerly

surge of the monsoon current. All these observations indicate that the environmental factors were favourable for intensification of the system.
Table 1. Best track Positions and other parameters for Severe Cyclonic Storm AILA over the Bay of Bengal during 23-26 May, 2009 Date Time (UTC) Estimated Grade Pressure drop at the Centre (hPa) 0600 16.5/88.0 1.5 998 25 3 D 1200 16.5/88.0 1.5 994 25 3 D 1800 17.0/88.5 1.5 996 25 4 D 0000 17.0/88.5 1.5 996 25 4 D 0300 18.0/88.5 2.0 992 30 4 DD 0600 18.0/88.5 2.0 988 30 5 DD 0900 18.0/88.5 2.0 986 35 5 DD 1200 18.5/88.5 2.5 986 35 6 CS 1500 19.0/88.5 2.5 986 35 8 CS 1800 19.0/88.5 2.5 986 35 8 CS 2100 20.0/88.0 2.5 984 40 8 CS 0000 20.0/88.0 2.5 980 40 10 CS 0300 20.5/88.0 3.0 978 50 12 CS 0600 21.5/88.0 3.5 974 55 15 SCS The system crossed West Bengal coast close to Sagar Island between 0800 & 0900 UTC and lay centred over Gangetic West Bengal close to Diamond Horbour 0900 22.0/88.0 --968 60 20 SCS 1200 22.5/88.0 --970 50 16 SCS 1500 23.0/88.0 --978 45 14 CS 1800 23.5/88.0 --980 40 12 CS 2100 24.0/88.0 --981 35 10 CS 0000 25.0/88.0 --982 30 08 CS 0300 25.5/88.0 --988 25 06 DD 0600 27.0/88.5 --992 20 04 D 0900 The System weakened into a well marked low pressure area over SubHimalayan West Bengal and neighbourhood Estimated Central Pressure (hPa) Estimated Maximum Sustained Surface Wind (kt) Centre lat.0 N/ C.I. NO. long. 0 E

23-05-2009

24-05-2009

25-05-2009

26-05-2009

2.2. Intensification and movement Under the favourable conditions as discussed above, the depression moved mainly in a northerly direction and intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 24th near Lat. 18.0N/Long 88.5E. It further intensified into a cyclonic storm ALIA at 1730 hours IST of 24th May and lay centred near Lat. 18.5N/Long 88.5E. It continued to move in northerly direction and intensified

into a severe cyclonic storm at 1130 hours IST of 25th May and lay centred over northwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 21.5N/Long 88.0E close to Sagar Island.

Pointofdissipation Depression DeepDepression

CyclonicStorm SevereCyclonicStorm

CyclonicStorm DeepDepression

Depression

Date and time is mentioned in UTC, e.g. 2306 stands for 0600 UTC (1130 IST) of 23 May 2009 Fig. 1. Track of Severe Cyclonic Storm AILA during 23- 26 May 2009 The system crossed West Bengal coast close to the east of Sagar Island between 1330 to 1430 hours IST as a severe cyclonic storm with wind speed of 100 to 110 kmph. The lowest estimated central pressure was about 967 hPa at the time of landfall. After the landfall, the system continued to move in a northerly direction, gradually weakened into a cyclonic storm and lay centred at 2030 hours IST of 25th May over Gangetic West Bengal, close to Kolkata. While it continued its northerly movement, it further weakened into a deep depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 26th May over Sub-Himalayan west Bengal & Sikkim, close to Malda. It
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weakened into a depression and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of 26th May over the same region close to Bagdogra. It weakened and lay as a well marked low pressure area over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and neighbourhood at 1430 hours IST of 26th and became less marked on 27th May (Fig.1). To compare with the climatology, the tracks of the systems developing within +/- 20 Lat/long. from the system location (lat. 16.50 N/ long. 88.50 E) on 23rd May were analysed. It indicates that any depression forming over this region (lat. 14.518.50 N and long. 86.5-90.50 E) in the month of May becomes a cyclone and most of them move northward/northeastward towards West Bengal/Bangladesh coasts. Considering the environmental factors, the vertical wind shear continued to be 10-20 knots till 1130 hrs IST of 24th. It then fell and was about 05-10 knots thereafter till the landfall. The low level relative vorticity and convergence increased gradually from 24th. The SST continued to be above normal and about 280 C. The upper tropospheric ridge lay very close to the system centre throughout the life of the system. It interacted with the system and moved gradually northward with northward movement of the system. The anticyclonic circulation located to the eastnortheast of the system centre also shifted gradually northward. A feeble trough in upper tropospheric westerlies roughly ran along 750 E to the north of 200 N on 23rd and gradually moved eastward and intensified, roughly running along 800 E on 25th and provided required upper level divergence for intensification of the system. Under the influence of the above mentioned trough and anti-cyclonic circulation/ridge, the system continued its nearly northerly movement throughout its life. The system could retain its intensity of cyclone for about 15 hrs after the landfall, as it lay close to the Bay of Bengal and lay centred over the Ganges deltaic region for quite sometime, thus ascertaining the availability of moisture. However, the system gradually weakened due to interaction with land surface

2.2.1. Satellite observations According to INSAT observations, the system intensified with intensity T2.0 at 0830 hrs IST of 24th with shear pattern of convection changing to curved band pattern. The curved band pattern continued till the landfall of the system. The INSAT imageries at different stages of the system like depression, deep depression, cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm are shown in Fig.2. The system attained
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the intensity of T2.5 corresponding to cyclonic storm at 1630 hrd IST of 24th, T3.0 at 0830 hrs IST of 25th and T3.5 corresponding to severe cyclonic storm at 1130 hrs IST, a few hours before landfall.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Fig.2. INSAT imageries of the system at different stages of intensification and landfall Depression, (b) deep depression, (c) cyclonic storm, (d) severe 7 and (f) during landfall cyclonic storm, (e) prior to landfall

There were mainly two intense zones of convection in association with the system, one lying to the northwest and the other to the southeast. There was a weak convection zone at the centre. It was also supported by the rainfall distribution. As the system moved inland in a northerly direction and weakened gradually, the two convective zones went apart from each other with one lying over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and neighbourhood and the other lying over Bangladesh. The minimum cloud top temperatures were about -70 to -800 C in association with the system. 2.2.2. Radar performance The severe cyclonic storm, AILA was tracked by conventional cyclone detection radar (CDR) and Doppler weather (DWR), Kolkata. Both the radars could find out the system centre as the system moved nearer to the radar centre. The centres of the Cyclonic Storm AILA, 23-25 May 2009, as fixed by the CDR, Paradip based on the Curved line(LN) / Spiral band echoes are furnished below (Table 2a). Table.2 (a). Centre of the cyclone, AILA according to CDR, Paradip
Date 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 24-May-09 25-May-09 25-May-09 25-May-09 25-May-09 25-May-09 25-May-09 25-May-09 Time (UTC) 0600 0700 0900 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 0000 0100 0200 0300 0400 0500 0600 Latitude (Deg.) 18.0 N 18.8 N 18.8 N 18.7 N 18.7 N 18.8 N 18.8 N 19.2 N 19.2 N 19.3 N 19.3 N 19.3 N 19.3 N 19.6 N 19.6 N 19.8 N 20.3 N 20.4 N 20.5 N 20.7 N 20.9 N 21.0 N 21.1 N Longitude (Deg.) 88.4 E 88.5 E 88.5 E 88.4 E 88.4 E 88.4 E 88.4 E 88.2 E 88.2 E 88.0 E 88.0 E 87.9 E 87.9 E 87.8 E 87.7 E 87.6 E 87.8 E 87.8 E 87.7 E 87.6 E 87.6 E 87.6 E 87.7 E Confidence Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Character LN LN LN LN LN LN LN LN LN LN LN Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral Spiral

25-May-09 25-May-09

0700 0900

Not Defined Not Defined

Weak echoes Weak echoes

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Fig.3. (a-f) A few DWR, Kolkata imageries during cyclone AILA depicting the th development of pre-cyclone squall 9 lines over Kolkata on 24 May night and approach of AILA towards West Bengal

(g)

(h)

(i)

(j)

Fig.3. (g-j) A few DWR, Kolkata imageries depicting the landfall of AILA over West Bengal near Sagar Island and movement across West Bengal Considering the period, when the radar could fairly determine the system centre, the system moved in near northerly direction with longitudinal displacement of about 0.30 and latitudinal displacement of about 1.80. The spiral bands were observed by CDR Paradip. The DWR Kolkata also near northerly movement of the system during its period of track (Fig.3). DWR, Kolkata was observing the system continuously since 0000 UTC of 24.05.2009 in every 15 minutes interval. The weak echoes were seen from 1100 UTC of 24.05.2009 on sea and land but first echo associated with deep depression seen by DWR was at 2200 UTC of 24.05.2009 showing organized cloud mass of 42 dBz and height of 8 10 km over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh. The spiral band with semi circular eye of the storm with diameter about
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100 km observed at 04:00 UTC of 25.05.2009. 75% closed spiral bands of diameter 125 km were seen in 0600 UTC with reflectivity 40 dBz. Convective clouds with increased reflectivity in the subsequent observation were seen but the centre of cyclone could not be ascertained as no closed circular eye of the storm AILA could be observed in any DWR observation. Spiral bands were also organized but not clearly defined and the storm centre was determined from the bands having poor confidence. The system weakened slightly after landfall but again intensified as seen in 1100 UTC observation. At 1200 UTC, all the echoes moved over land. The estimated centres of the system are given in Table 2 (b). Table 2 (b). Centre of the cyclone, AILA according to DWR, Kolkata
Date Time (UTC) 03 00 04 00 05 00 06 00 07 00 07 30 08 00 09 00 10 00 11 00 12 00 13 00 14 00 15 00 16 00 17 00 Latitude in degree North 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 Longitude in degree South 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.1 88.1 88.0 88.0 88.2 88.3 88.3 88.3 Azimuth (degree) from north 184.1 185.4 185.0 186.0 188.0 190.0 192.0 197.0 228.0 286.0 306.0 319.0 345.0 357.0 357.0 358.0

25.05.2009

Distance from DWR (km) 218.0 192.0 164.0 134.0 107.0 94.0 84.0 54.0 34.0 26.0 45.0 51.0 62.0 83.0 107.0 130.0

According to this radar, there were two main regions of convection, one to the northwest and the other to the southeast. These two convective regions also went apart from each other as the system moved northward. Hence it was similar to convection observed by the satellite and was supported by the rainfall distribution. Another feature observed by the DWR, Kolkata was the pre-cyclone squall line. It was observed on 24th night when the system was over the sea and centred near Paradip latitude. The occurrence of this pre-cyclone squall line improved the confidence of the forecasters to expect the northerly movement of the system. The maximum wind observed through DWR Kolkata are as follows.
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(a) From PPI _V pictures The maximum radial wind recorded by DWR is as follows: 1. 51 mps at 1.66 km height at a distance of 140 km from DWR on 0507 UTC of 25.05.2009. 2. 33 mps at a height of .19 km at a distance of 20 km at 0920 UTC 3. 45 mps at 2 km height at 0820 UTC just over Kolkata. (b) From VVP_2 pictures Maximum horizontal wind observed was 75 knots easterly to southeasterly at height from 0.6 km to 4.5 km. during 0620 to 0835 UTC.

2.2.3. AWS and coastal hourly observations The observations from AWS and coastal observatories from Orissa and West Bengal helped in monitoring and predicting the intensification and movement of the system. They were especially very helpful to monitor the landfall point and time. These observations indicated that the system crossed West Bengal coast close to the east of Sagar Island between 1330 and 1430 hrs IST (Fig.4). The observations from AWS also could help in estimating the maximum wind and lowest ECP of the system. The lowest MSLP of 967 hPa was recorded by Kakdwip AWS in Sunderban delta which lies close to the north of Sagar Island. To compare the performance of the AWS, the hourly plots of observations from Sagar Island, Kakdwip, Canning and Kolkata AWS are shown in Fig.4. There were natural variations in different parameters like pressure, wind direction and speed and rainfall, as expected in association with a cyclone. However, the wind observations were erratic and may be erroneous in respect of Sagar Island AWS after the landfall of the system. As expected, the lowest pressure was recorded by the AWS located from south to north with lowest pressure being first observed over Sagar Island followed by Kakdwip, Canning and Kolkata. The surface wind over Sagar Island was northeasterly at 1230, northerly at 1330 and westerly at 1430 hrs IST indicating landfall between 1330 and 1430 hrs IST.
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1010

(a) Meansea levelpressure (hPa) SagarIsland Kakdwip Canning

Kolkata

1000

990

980

970

960

950 2400 2402 2404 2406 2408 2410 2412 2414 2416 2418 2420 2422 2500 2502 2504 2506 2508 2510 2512 2514 2516 2518 2520 2522

120

(b)Hourly rainfall (mm) Kolkata Kakdwip Canning

100

80

60

40

20

0 2400 2402 2404 2406 2408 2410 2412 2414 2416 2418 2420 2422 2500 2502 2504 2506 2508 2510 2512 2514 2516 2518 2520 2522

Fig.4 (a & b). Performance of AWS during cyclone AILA (0000UTC of 24 may to 2300 UTC of 25 May 2009 (a) Mean sea level pressure (hPa) and (b) Hourly rainfall (mm)

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350

(c)Winddirection(degree)
SagarIsland Canning Kakdwip Kolkata

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 2400 2402 2404 2406 2408 2410 2412 2414 2416 2418 2420 2422 2500 2502 2504 2506 2508 2510 2512 2514 2516 2518 2520 2522

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2400 2402 2404 2406 2408 2410 2412 2414 2416 2418 2420 2422 2500 2502 2504 2506 2508 2510 2512 2514 2516 2518 2520 2522

(d)Windspeed(knot)
SagarIsland Canning Kakeep Kolkata

Fig.4(c & d). Performance of AWS during cyclone AILA (0000UTC of 24 may to 2300 UTC of 25 May 2009 (c) Wind direction (degrees) and (d) wind speed (knots)

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3. Disastrous weather The heavy rainfall, strong wind and storm surge are the disastrous weather associated with cyclone. The warning issued by IMD and the realised weather are summarised below. 3.1. Heavy rainfall Widespread rain/thundershowers with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall and isolated extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Orissa on 25th, over West Bengal & Sikkim on 25th & 26th. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall also occurred over Assam & Meghalaya on 26th & 27th May. The significant amount of rainfall realised over these regions are shown in Table 3. Apart from India and Bangladesh, Nepal also could get heavy rain due to northward movement of the system. Table 3(a). Chief amounts of rainfall ( 1 cm or more) over India due to SCS, AILA
Met SubDivision 25th may 26th may 27th may

Orissa

PARADEEP 26 KAKATPUR 18 CHANDBALI , ALIPINGAL 15 NEEMAPARA, PATAMUNDAI14, RAJKANIKA -1 0, CUTTACK, AKHUATAPA 9 BHUBNESWAR, SORO, GATHGAON- 8, JAJPUR, BANGIRIPOSHI, GOP 7, KENDRAPARA, BHOGRAI , SOKINDA , PURI , NILGIRI- 6 BALASORE, NARIJ, GOVINDPUR, BALIMUNDALI , KODALA, JAMSOLAGATH , RAJGHAT, ATHAGARH , JENAPUR, ANANDPUR 5 CHANDPUR , BARIPADA, JOSHIPUR , SWANPATNA 4 THAKURMUNDA, ALTUMA, DHENKANAL, HINDOL, RAJRANGPUR 3, JALESWAR, JHUMPUR A, CHUMPUA 2, KARANJIA , TELKOI, PALLAHKRA, NAIGARH , NARSINGHPUR -1 DIGHA- 7 KOLKATA (ALIPUR),

BHOGARI, RAJGHAT 11, NEELGIRI 6 RAJKANIKA, JAMSOLAGATH, RAIRANGPUR -5 BARIPADA, NEEMAPARA, JALESHER, SORO , AKWAPADA- 4 BALOSORE, JAIPUR , GOVINPUR, CHANDPARI , CUTTACK, KENDPARA , PATAMUNDIA, BAGRIPOSI ,JOSHIPUR , TRINJ, GOP - 3 BHUBNESBAR 1

--

PANAGARH A/F, KALIAKUNDA A/F ,

---

15

Gangetic West Bengal

Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim

SANTINIKETAN, BASIRGATH, BARRACKPUR, SRINIKETAN - 6 JAILPAIGURI , DUMDUM , ALIPUR, CANNING , DUMDUM 5, DIAMOND HARBOUR, HALDIA, KRISHNANAGAR - 4 BARRACKPUR, BANKURA, BANKURA,BURDWAN , ULUBERIA 3, PANAGARH , KALIAKUNDA , MALDA , MIDNAPUR , KALIAKUNDA , PANAGARH 2 BAROBHISA 10 JAIPIGURI -5 MATABANGA , ALIPUR DUAR - 4 COOCH BEHAR , NEORA , COOCH BEHAR- 3 HASIMARA, DARRJING, SEVOK SUKHISPOKHRA, LAVA GAZOLEDOBA, BOMOHANI, NAGRAKTA, MURTI, NH31 , HASIMARA , MALDA 2 BIJANWARI, CHAMPASARI, DIANA - 1

Arunachal Pradesh

ITANAGAR -2 ITANAGAR (NAHARIAGAN) SEEPA -1

SRINIKETAN 17 MIDNAPUR, DIGHA 14 BARRACKPUR 12 BARAMPUR 10 BARRACKPUR, DUMUM 9 BANKURA ,KRISHANNAGAR - 7 ALIPUR, CANNING 5 DIAMOND HABOUAR4, BASIGATH - 3 SINGABAZAR 14 MALDA- 13 GAAZOLEDOABO 11, KHANITAR- 10 JALPIAGURI 9 DOMOHANI, CHAMPASARI 8 PUSHVIHAR, ALIPUR DAR 7, SEVOK , NH31 6 SUKHIAPOHKARI , DIANA , NAGARKATA , MURIT , BAROVISHA , GANGTOK 5 BAGDOGRA, MATABANGA 4, HASIMARA- 3 BALURGHAT 1 DAPORAJO, SEPPA 3 TAWANG, KHONSA ,DEOMALI- 2 ZIRO, BHALUKPONG 1 CHEERAPUNJI 21 SHILLONG 12 KOKRAJHAR 9 GOLPARA 8 BHALPUR 7 DHUBRI , DHARMTUL, TANGLA 4 TIKRIKILLA, VILLAMNAGAR - 5 TEZPUR, BEKIMATHANGURI, BARIPATA , DHARMURA , BOKAJAN, RAGIA 3 GUWAHATI A/P , TEZPUR, BAKEROAD , MANAS NH, AIE NH, MATIJURI , JIA-

Assam & Meghalaya

DHEKIAJULI -5 KOKARAGHAT 4 TEZPUR,SHIVSAGAR,TANGLA, TIKRIKILLA - 2 SHILLONG,JOHRAT,LAKHIMPU R, DHUBRI,CHEERAPUNJI, SHOULDHOWAGHAT,LUNDING, PANWARI - 1

DARJEEING -27 SINGLABAZAR, LAVA 18 BIJANBARI - 15 SUKHIAPOKHARI - 11 SEVOK - 10 BAGDOGAR 7 HASIMARA 6 CHAMPASARI - 5 GAZOLEDOBA , NEORA 4, JAILPIGURI , MURTI, HASIMARA, BAROBHISA,ALIPURDU AR 3 DIANA , NAGARKATA 2 NH -31 (ROAD BRIDGE), MATHABHANGA, COOCH BEHAR 1 BHALUKPON - 7 DAPORIJO 4 ITANAGAR, ITANAGAR (NAHARIAGAN)- 3 ZIRO ,NAMSAI ,PASSIGAHT 2 TEZU 1 MANAS NH 12 CHEERAPUNJI 9 SHILLONG 8 BEKIRD 7 AIENH , BALIPETA, GOLPARA 5 PANABARI 6 SHILLONG , BALPUR, MOTUNGA - 4 TEZPUR , JOHRAT ,COKRAJAR - 3 KUMBHIGHAM , JOHRAT , TEZPUR , SILCHAR , AMARAGATH , DAHOLI , AP GATH , PUCHIMARI , NALWARI , DILLIGATH , GOLOGATH, KHARONIGHT, CHOULDHOWAGHAT

16

Nagaland Manipur Mizoram & Tripura

LENGPUI 5 SABROOM - 4 PHEK , AGARTALA A/P- 3 KALAISHAHAR , ARUNDHITINAGAR , TIKRIKILLA 2, IMPHAL , BELONIA ,SONAMPURA 1

BAHARALI , PANWARI , DHEKIAJULI 2 SILCHER, AMARGHAT, AP GHAT , PUTHINARI , NALBARI, ERONIGHT, KAMPUR, BEHUBAR , MAJBAT 1 DHARMANGAR, PANIAGAR - 8 KAILASHAR, BALONIA 6 IMPHAL A/P, PHEK 3, KOHIMA , AGARTALA A/P 1

,DHARMTUL, TANGLA, RANGIA, DHEKIAJULI 2, GUWAHAT IA/P , LKR , LAHKIPUR, UMALIGAR, NEAMATIGHAT, MAJBAT, BILLIAMNAGAR, LUMDING -1 BELONIA-13 LENGPUI, SONAMURA 4 KAILASHASAHAR - 3 AGARTALA A/P , DHARMNAGAR 2, IMPHAL 1

Table 3(b). Chief amounts of rainfall (1 cm or more) over Bangladesh and Nepal due to SCS, AILA
Country Bangladesh KHEPUPARA- 6, M COURT, COXS BAZAR, KHULNA 5, SANDWIP ,FENI , PATWAKHALI- 4 FARIDPUR,MADRIPUR,CHITT GAON, RAJSHASHI , SATKHIRA, JESSORE 3, CNANDPUR ,ISHURDI, MONGLA- 2, DHAKA M, RANGMATI , BARISAL 1 TEKNAF , DINAJPUR 14, SANDWIP , FENI 12, COXS BAZAR 9, M.COAT,RANPUR, MOGLA 8, HATIYA,SYLHET, RAJSAHIL - 5 DHAKA,SATKIRA, JESSORE, KHEPUTKRA - 4, CHITTAGONG, COMILLA , ISHURDI , BOGRA , PULNA, CHUADANGA, PATUAKHALI - 3 TANGAIL, SRIMANGAL 2, BARISAL - 1 DANG 8 JUMLA- 3 DHANKUTA,BIRATNAG AR, DHARAN 1 CHITTAGONG ,SANDWIP 13 FENI -10 M COAT 7 SYHLET - 6 RANGMATI ,SRIMANGAL 5 SAYEDPUR , PATWAKHALI 4, BARISAL- 3 COX BAZAR ,DINAJPUR , KHEPUPARA - 2 CHNADPUR , KUTUBDIA , RANGPUR - 1 BIRATNAAGR 12, DHARAN- 9 DAANKUTA - 8 KATHMANDU, OKHALDHUNGA ,JANAKPUR , JIRI - 4 SIMRA 1 25th may 26th may 27th may

Nepal

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3.2. Strong wind According to satellite estimation, the sustained maximum wind at the time of landfall has been about 60 knots (112 kmph). The wind recorded by anemometers, anemographs and AWS sensors also is of the same order. 3.3. Storm surge According to media reports, a storm surge of 3 m (10 ft) impacted western regions of Bangladesh, submerging numerous villages. The Sunderbans, was inundated with 6 m (20 ft) of water as per the media reports. Considering the astronomical tidal wave at the time of landfall, which was about 4-5 meters, the maximum storm surge over Sunderban area may be estimated to be about 2 m. 4. Damage The severe cyclonic storm, AILA affected both India and Bangladesh. A brief report on damages due to AILA in these two countries are summarised below. 4.1 India Mainly West Bengal was damaged due to severe cyclonic storm, AILA. Based on media report, the state chief secretary has put the number of storm-affected people at 2.2 million. More than 61,000 houses collapsed and more than 132,000 houses were partially damaged. About 100 people died in the state due to AILA. It caused extensive damage to rice and other crops but officials say they were still assessing the losses. In Sundarbans, heavy downpour raised river levels while the gushing waters of flooded mangroves burst mud embankments in the extensive delta region, destroying hundreds of thousands of houses.The Sunderbans mangrove forest area, home to the highly endangered Royal Bengal tiger, has been fully inundated and high-speed winds have destroyed all communication and transportation infrastructure. The entire Sunderbans biosphere reserve area of 9600 square kilometres has suffered extensive damage under the impact of cyclone AILA. A few damage photographs are shown in Fig.5. The SCS, AILA affected SubHimalayan West Bengal and Sikkim causing uprooting of trees due to strong wind and land slide and flood due to heavy rain.

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The outer bands of the storm also produced torrential rains and high winds in several parts of north coastal Orissa, with the heaviest rainfall being recorded at Paradip at 260 mm (10 in) and winds peaked at 90 km/h (56 mph). Numerous trees were uprooted and power lines were downed, causing widespread power outages. High waves produced by the storm inundated coastal villages, forcing residents to evacuate to safer areas. However, there is no report of human death in the state. An estimated 1,000 acres of Orissa cropland were affected due to AILA. The remnants of AILA produced gusty winds and heavy rains in Meghalaya between 25 and 26 of May. Rainfall amounts peaked at 213.4 mm and winds reached 60 km/h. Several homes were damaged in the area and power was cut due to fallen trees and power lines. No injuries were reported in the state. Several streets were flooded and some homes were reported to have standing water.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Fig.5. Photographs showing damage due to AILA (a) Uprooting of trees in Kolkata, (b) Damage to embankments in Birbhum district, (c) damaged hutments along the coast, (d) land slide in Darjiling

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4.2. Bangladesh In Bangladesh, more than three million people have been hit by the cyclone. The death toll from cyclone AILA in Bangladesh is around 175. According to Bangladeshi authorities, based n media report, over 5,400 people were injured and nearly 842,000 were forced to take refuge on rooftops and rafts. Several rivers broke through embankments, causing widespread inland flooding. An estimated 58,950 animals were killed by the storm. 4.3. Environmental impact The Sunderbans, a region which houses 265 of the endangered Bengal Tigers, was inundated with 6.1 m (20 ft) of water. Dozens of the tigers are feared to have drowned in AILA's storm surge along with deer and crocodiles. Additionally, the forest remains under an estimated 2.4 m (7.9 ft) of water on 27 May according to media reports. The actual impact of AILA on flora and fauna in Sunderbans is being ascertained by various govt and non-govt. agencies. 5. Bulletins issued by IMD Cyclone Warning Division, IMD, New Delhi acts as a regional specialised

meteorological centre (RSMC) for world meteorological organisation (WMO)/ economic and social cooperation for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) member countries which includes Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Thailand, Myanmar and Bangladesh apart from India. Hence, we issue three hourly tropical cyclone advisories to the member countries during the cyclone developing over the north Indian Ocean. Also we issue special tropical weather outlook during a depression existing over the north Indian Ocean. On ordinary occasions, the tropical weather outlook is issued once a day for the north Indian Ocean. The RSMC, New Delhi also acts as the Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) for international civil aviation purpose and provides six hourly advisories to different international agencies including Meteorological Watch Offices as per the guidelines of International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). All these bulletins are issued in addition to the bulletins issued to different national agencies for disaster management. The following is the list of bulletins issued by IMD, New Delhi in connection with the cyclone, AILA.
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i. ii.

Bulletins for Indian coast: RSMC bulletins for WMO/ESCAP Panel members : (a) Special Tropical Weather Outlook : (b) Tropical Cyclone Advisory bulletin:

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05 08 04

iii.

TCAC bulletin for aviation:

All the bulletins were passed in time, i.e. within about two hours of observation period. 6. Verification of forecasts and warnings issued by IMD Verification of forecasts and warnings are presented with respect to genesis, intensification, movement, landfall and disastrous weather. 6.1. Genesis Likely formation of a low pressure area over central Bay of Bengal, its intensification into a depression and movement towards Bangladesh coast was predicted on 20th May, 2009 (All India Weekly Weather Report). According to All India daily weather report, a low pressure area formed over east central Bay of Bengal on 22nd morning. It concentrated into a depression at 0600 UTC of 23rd May 2009. 6.2. Intensity and movement The forecast issued and the actual movement and intensity of the system is summarized in the Table 4. Table 4. Verification of warnings issued by IMD in connection with the severe cyclonic storm, AILA during 23-26 May 2009
Base Time (UTC) 230600 Intensity & Location at Base time Depression, 16.50N/88.00E (600 km south of Sagar Island) Issue time 230800 Hours before landfall 49 Forecast Actual

Likely intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction towards West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast during next 72 hours

The system crossed West Bengal coast near Sagar Island

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231200

Depression, 16.50N/88.00E (600 km south of Sagar Island)

231400

43

Likely intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near 89.00 E (100 km east of Sagar Island) around 25th May evening. Likely intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near 89.00 E (100 km east of Sagar Island) around 25th May evening. Likely intensify further and move in a near northerly direction cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near 88.50 E (50 km east of Sagar Island) around 25th May afternoon/evening. Likely intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near 88.00 E (near Sagar Island) around 25th May afternoon/evening.

240300

Deep Depression, 18.00N/88.50E (400 km southsoutheast of Sagar Island)

240500

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(21.80N/88.00 E) between 0800 and 0900 UTC of 25th May as a severe cyclonic storm

241200

Cyclonic AILA,

Storm 241400

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18.50N/88.50E (350 km southsoutheast of Sagar Island) 250300 Cyclonic AILA, Storm 250500 04

20.50N/88.00E (130 km south of Sagar Island)

The likely intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm was first indicated in the warning bulletin issued by IMD at 0800 UTC based on the observation of 0600 UTC of 23rd May 2009, when the system was first declared as a depression. Hence the likely intensification of the cyclonic storm was predicted about 30 hrs in advance, as the depression intensified into a cyclonic storm at 1200 UTC of 24th May 2009. Further intensification of the system was also predicted at 1400 UTC based on 1200 UTC of 24th May and the system crossed coast as a severe cyclonic storm on 25th May between 0800 and 0900 UTC. Considering the forecast in terms of T number, the maximum intensity was predicted to be T3.5 at the time of landfall.

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6.3. Landfall The landfall point forecast errors and landfall forecast time errors are given in Table 5(a) and 5(b) respectively. Table 5 (a). Landfall forecast errors of severe cyclonic storm, AILA. Base time Foreca Hours in Forecast landfall Actual landfall Error (UTC) st issue advance point point (Km) time 231200 240300 241200 250300 231400 240500 241400 250500 43 28 19 04 21.80N/89.00E 21.80N/89.00E 21.80N/88.50E 21.80N/88.00E 21.80N/88.00E -do-do-do110 110 55 0

Table 5 (b). Landfall forecast time errors of severe cyclonic storm, AILA. Based Forecast Hours in Forecast Actual Error Chart (UTC) issue time advance landfall time landfall time (hrs) (UTC) (UTC) (UTC) 231200 240300 241200 250300 231400 240500 241400 250500 43 28 19 04 251230 251230 251230 251230 250830 -do-do-do04 04 04 04

It indicates that landfall point forecast errors was about 110 km with time error of about 4 hours in the forecast issued about 43 hrs in advance. Similarly, landfall point forecast errors was about 55 km with time error of about 4 hours in the forecast issued about 19 hrs in advance. 6.4. Disastrous weather 6.4.1. Heavy rainfall The heavy rainfalls warnings issued by IMD and realised heavy rainfall are presented in Table 6. The occurrence of extremely heavy rainfall was predicted as early as 48 hrs in advance.
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Table 6. Verification of heavy rainfall warning issued by IMD Based Chart (UTC) Forecast issue time (UTC) Heavy rainfall warning Observed heavy rainfall

230600

230800

231200

231400

240300

240500

250300

250500

Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm) is likely to commence over Gangetic West Bengal and north Orissa from tomorrow, the 24th May 2009 afternoon Heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm) is likely to commence over Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Orissa from tomorrow, the 24th May 2009 afternoon Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm) is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Orissa during next 48 hours. Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm) is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim during next 48 hours and over north Orissa during next 24 hours. Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm) is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy to very heavy fall likely over Assam and Meghalaya during next 48 hours and Orissa during next 24 hrs.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls occurred over north coastal Orissa and West Bengal & Sikkim. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls also occurred over Assam & Meghalaya. The stationwise rainfall is described in disastrous weather section.

250900

251100

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6.4.2. Strong wind Considering the prediction of maximum sustained wind at the surface level, the maximum predicted wind speed and the time of prediction along with the observed wind speed are shown in the Table 7. Table 7. Verification of maximum wind forecast issued by IMD Based Chart (UTC) 231200 240300 240600 241200 242100 250600 Forecast issue time (UTC) 231400 240500 240800 241400 242300 250800 Hours in advance of landfall 43 28 25 19 10 00 Forecast maximum wind (kmph) at time of landfall 60-90 75 gusting to 85 85 gusting to 95 95 gusting to 105 100 gusting to 110 100-110 gusting to 120 Actual wind (kmph) Kolkata :95 Panagarh : 97 Kalaikunda : 112 Barrackpore : 102 Kakdwip, Sagar Island : 75

6.4.3. Storm surge The storm surge predicted by IMD and the realised surge as per the news paper reports are given in the following Table 8. Table 8. Verification of storm surge predicted by IMD Based Chart (UTC) 241200 Forecast issue time (UTC) 241400 Hours in advance of landfall 19
Storm surge of about 2-3 Storm surge of about meters above meters above astronomical tide 2-3 south Midnapur Bengal landfall. 24-Pargana districts anf of

Forecast storm surge(m) at time of landfall

Actual storm surge (m)

is likely over coastal areas of astronomical tide was and realised over coastal West areas of West Bengal adjoining adjoining and

Bangladesh coast at the time of Bangladesh coasts

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7. Performance of NWP and statistical models The NWP models including ECMWF, UKMO, T254, WRF (IITD, NCMRWF, IMD), MM5 (IMD, IAF) and QLM were used for forecast guidance during AILA. Most of the NWP models could predict the northerly movement of the system near 88-890 E 24 hrs in advance. However, there was a large variation in the track prediction in 72hrs forecast based on initial condition of 23rd May with landfall varying from north Orissa to southeast Bangladesh. It reduced in 48 hr forecast and at last converged on 24 hr forecast. Similarly, there was also variation in intensity ranging from depression to SCS. The landfall time also varied from 25th forenoon to 27th in different forecasts. Comparing different models, the track prediction was better in ECMWF model, of course with changing landfall time for different initial conditions. The genesis and intensification was better in WRF model. The detailed verification of the performance of models will be included in final report.

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