Artificial Neural Network Methodology For Modeling and Resource Use Optimization in Rice Yield

I nternational J ournal of Creative Mathematical Sciences & Technology (I J CMST) 2(1): 35-41, 2012
ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X

35
Corresponding Author: K. K. Pradhan, Vikash School of Business Management,
Bargarh, Odisha, India

Artificial Neural Network Methodology for Modeling and Resource use
Optimization in Rice Yield

K. K. Pradhan
1
, S. K. Hota
2
and B. Satpathy
3
1
Vikash School of Business Management, Bargarh (Odisha), India
2
Madhusudan Institute of Cooperative Management, Bhubaneswar (Odisha), India
3
Sambalpur University, J yoti Vihar Burla (Odisha), India

Abstract: Artificial neural networks (ANN), viz. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) using
Neuro Solutions 5.0 having 2 numbers of Hidden Layers and 50 Neurons per Hidden
Layer has been used here to predict the inputs for a given value of output. Another
artificial neural network viz. Radial Basic Function (RBF) using SPSS 17.0 that typically
have three layers: an input layer, a hidden layer with a non-linear RBF activation function
and a linear output layer has also been used in this paper for modeling the resource use
optimization problem. The paper has illustrated the optimization problem by considering
rice crop yield data as the output (Y) and per acre Cost of Bullock/ Machine Labor (X
1
),
Human labor (X
2
), Seeds (X
3
), Fertilizer (X
4
), Irrigation (X
5
), Pesticide (X
6
) and Credit
(X
7
) as inputs. It has been observed that for a desired level of output the input costs
predicted by RBF is better than MLP for the data considered in this study. It is hoped
that, in future, research workers would start applying these advanced ANN models to
optimization problems relating to agricultural productivity.
Keywords: ANN, RBF, Optimization.

INTRODUCTION

Multiple linear regression modeling is widely used to estimate linear relationship
between response variable and predictors. Its limitation is that it assumes the underlying relation
between response and predictor variables to be linear. In real life situation, this assumption is
rarely satisfied. Also, if there are several predictors, it is quite impossible to have an idea of the
underlying non-linear functional relationship between response and predictor variables. To handle
such a situation, Artificial neural networks (ANNs) is used. Cheng and Titterington (1994)
have reviewed the ANN methodology from a statistical perspective, while Warner and Misra
(1996) have laid emphasis on the understanding of ANN as a statistical tool. A distinguishing
feature of ANNs that makes them valuable and attractive for a statistical task is that, as opposed
to traditional model-based methods, ANNs are data-driven self-adaptive methods in that there are
a few a-priori assumptions about the models for problems under study. This modeling approach
with ability to learn from experience is very useful in many practical problems since it is often
easier to have data than to have good theoretical guesses about the underlying laws governing the
systems from which data are generated. Zhang (2007) has discussed various pitfalls in the ANN
modeling work, which must be avoided. Most widely used ANN is multilayered feed forward
artificial neural network (MLFANN).

ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X
36

In this paper an attempt has been made to solve a resource use optimization problem
relating to the cultivation of rice by taking the field data fromthe small farmers of a village
situated in the Bargarh district of western Odisha in India. We have used two different types of
neural networks namely a Time-Lagged Feed forward Network (TLFN) and a Radial Basic
Function (RBF) Network to compare the results. Here Neuro Solutions 5.0 and SPSS 17.0
software have been used to build the networks respectively.
Neuro Solutions 5.0 neural network uses Time-Lagged Feed forward Network (TLFN). It
is a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with memory components to store past values of the data in
the network. The memory components allow the network to learn relationships over time. It is the
most common temporal supervised neural network. It consists of multiple layers of Processing
Elements (PEs) connected in a feed forward fashion. Neuro Solutions uses the back-propagation
of errors to train the MLP. The back-propagation uses gradient search and adjust the weights
contained in the network. This is how the network is trained. The selected network has been
constructed with two hidden layers. The analysis has been undertaken with 1000 epochs. An
epoch is a complete presentation of the training data to the network.
In this analysis a Prediction type problemanalysis has been made. Prediction problems are those
where the goal is to determine an output given a set of inputs and the past history of the inputs.
The main difference between prediction problems and the others is that prediction problems use
the current input and previous inputs (the temporal history of the input) to determine either the
current value of the output or a future value of a signal. The target of a MLP is learning to match
a vector of inputs (X) to a vector of outputs (Y) through the interactions among neurons (W). This
implies learning the function. Through the sample {X(p), Y(p)}, p =1,2,,N where
n
R p x e ) (
is the input vector and
m
R p y e ) ( is the output, where i denote input, j hidden and k output
layer.
m
f
n
R R
Y X W f ~ ) : (
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ =

k j j i
i ij h jk
k i
i ik k
x w f w x w f y
0
-----------------------(1)
This is carried out by adjusting the weights (W) of given interconnections according to
some learning algorithm. MLP employs a supervised learning algorithm called back propagation.
The learning is guided by specifying the desired response to the network for each training input
pattern through the comparison with the actual output computed by the network in order to adjust
the weights. These adjustments have the purpose of minimize some energy function, normally the
square difference between the desired and actual outputs. The derivatives of the function with
respect to the weights are employed to propagate the error backwards through the network from
output to hidden layer(s), until it reaches the input layer. Each weight is modified according with
its particular contribution to the global error. The performance of the net is measured most of
times in terms of the root mean square error. After a number of loops, when the benefits of further
optimization are regarded as small, the training process converges and stops. A typical MLP
Architecture has been shown below.

ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X
37

Multilayer Perception Architecture

RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION (RBF)

A Radial Basis Function (RBF) is a real-valued function whose value depends only on
the distance fromthe origin, so that ; or alternatively on the distance from
some other point c, called a center, so that . Any function that
satisfies the property is a radial function. The norm is usually Euclidean
distance, although other distance functions are also possible. According to Lukaszyk (2004) by
using Lukaszyk-Karmowski metric it is possible to avoid problems with ill conditioned matrix for
some radial functions and also we can determine coefficients w
i
since the is always greater
than zero. Sums of radial basis functions are typically used to approximate given functions. This
approximation process can also be interpreted as a simple kind of neural network. Commonly
used types of radial basis functions include( )
i
c x r = :
- Gaussian: ) exp( ) (
2
r r = for some 0 > .
- Multiquadric:
2 2
) ( + = r r for some 0 > .
- Polyharmonic spline:
=
=
=
,... 6 , 4 , 2 ) ln(
,... 5 , 3 , 1
) (
k r r
k r
r
k
k

- Thin plate spline (a special polyharmonic spline): ) ln( ) (
2
r r r =
Radial Basis Functions are typically used to build up function approximations of the form
( )
=
=
n
i
i i
c x w x y
1
) (
where the approximating function y(x) is represented as a sumof N radial basis functions, each
associated with a different center c
i
, and weighted by an appropriate coefficient w
i
. The weights
w
i
can be estimated using the matrix methods of linear least squares, because the approximating
function is linear in the weights.

ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X
38

The sumcan also be interpreted as a rather simple single-layer type of artificial neural
network called a radial basis function network, with the radial basis functions taking on the role
of the activation functions of the network. It can be shown that any continuous function on a
compact interval can in principle be interpolated with arbitrary accuracy by a sumof this form, if
a sufficiently large number N of radial basis functions is used.
( )
=
=
n
i
i i
c x w x y
1
) (
The approximant y(x) is differentiable with respect to the weights w
i
. The weights could
thus be learned by using any of the standard iterative methods for neural networks.

METHODOLOGY RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
The present study aims at using ANN as a tool to solve resource use optimization
problems. As an illustration, the methodology has been applied for modeling and forecasting of
rice crop yield on the basis of seven variables. We have taken rice crop yield data as the output
(Y) and Total Cost of Bullock/ Machine Labor-per acre (X
1
), Total Cost of Human Labor per acre
(X
2
), Cost of Seeds per acre (X
3
), Fertilizer cost per acre (X4), Total-Irrigation Cost (X
5
), Cost of
pesticide (X
6
) and Credit per acre (X
7
) as different inputs. The network information regarding the
RBF using SPSS 17.0 has been shown in the Table 1. Overall Percent Correctness during training
of the data is found to be 15.5%. Training Time required was 0:00:05.657. The Primary data has
been collected through personal interview method based on a pre-designed questionnaire from84
numbers of small farmers of a village situated in the Bargarh district of Odisha. The poor record
keeping systemexisting among the farmers is one of the main constraints to this kind of research
where the farmers have given data fromtheir memory.
We trained the data and we changed our data set and assigned zero value to X
1
, X
2
, X
3
,
X
4
, X
5
, X
6
and X
7
with a targeted level of output and we ran the network to get the values of Xi
(where i =X
1..
X
7
). For example, we fixed the target to be 7106 Rupees and we got the X
1
, X
2
,
X
3
, X
4
, X
5
, X
6
and X
7
values in Rupees that has been shown in the Figure-1 as well as in the
Table-3. The same thing was repeated for running the Neuro Solution 5.0 and SPSS 17.0
software. The Figure-1 shows the comparative result of SPSS 17.0, Neuro Solutions 5.0 and the
actual data gathered from the farmers. The Network Information and the Case processing
summary for SPSS 17.0 using MLP network have been shown in the Table 2 and 3. The
cumulative mean square error in case of Neuro Solutions 5.0 was found to be 0.1075. The number
of epochs was found to be 1000. Neuro Solutions 5.0 neural network used Time-Lagged Feed
forward Network (TLFN) with two hidden layers. To know the difference between the
predictions we used two cases where the target was Rs. 6847.6 but the primary data were
different. We found that the SPSS 17.0 predicted the same value for both the cases while the
Neuro Solutions 5.0 gave different values which have been depicted in Graph 2 and 3 and also in
Table 3. Therefore to our view the Neuro Solutions 5.0 is giving better result by taking care of the
primary data and predicting the values while the SPSS 17.0 is only considering the target value
given which is the input in this case for the Networks. Evidently, predicted and actual values in
both the methods i.e RBF and MLP are quite close.

ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X
39

The neural network results show that the total cost human labor. /Ac. in RS. X2 is to be
reduced and cost towards the irrigation facilities X5 is to be increased. The result seems to be
practical since the labor cost is high and the farmers should invest more in irrigation for better
productivity. Thus, it could be concluded that artificial neural network methodology is successful
in describing the given data and can be used as a reliable tool for resource use optimization
problems.

Table 1 Network I nformation using SPSS 17.0
Input Layer Factors 1 Output_Y
Number of Units 46
Hidden Layer Number of Units 2
a

Activation Function Softmax
Output Layer Dependent Variables 1 Bullock_X1
2 Humane_X2
3 Seeds_X3
4 Fertilizer_X4
5 Irrigation_X5
6 Pesticide_X6
7 Credit_X7
Number of Units 271
Activation Function Identity
Error Function Sumof Squares
a. Determined by the Bayesian Information Criterion: The "best" number of
hidden units is the one that yields the smallest BIC in the training data.

Table 2 Case Processing Summary using SPSS 17.0
N Percent
Sample Training 60 100.0%
Valid 60 100.0%
Excluded 44
Total 104


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Table 3 Predicted Data by NeuroSolutions 5.0, SPSS 17.0 and the Original Data
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7
MLP Predicted Values (Neuro Solutions 5.0 )
7106 572.65 1387.08 303.54 663.01 433.3 214.06 803.81
6847.6 580.15 1436.32 306.17 673.24 446.85 202.67 793.26
6847.6 581.74 1446.8 306.77 675.42 449.74 200.24 791.01
RBF Predicted Values(SPSS 17.0)
7106 530 1200 287.5 700 394.65 214.29 642.86
6847.6 540 940 250 580 263.1 250 750
6847.6 540 940 250 580 263.1 250 750
Original Data
7106 500 1600 270 670 131.55 260 666.67
6847.6 520 1600 248 760 131.55 280 500
6847.6 520 1680 260 720 131.55 240 400
Note: The value of output (Y) and inputs (X
1
to X
7
) are measured in Rupees (Rs.) term.
For a Target Output of Rs.7106
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7
Inputs
V
a
l
u
e
s

i
n

R
s
.
Neuro Solutions
SPSS(RBF)
Original

Figure-1
For a Tar get Output of Rs.6847.6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7
Inputs
V
a
l
u
e
s

i
n

R
s
.
Neuro Solutions
SPSS(RBF)
Original

Figure- 2

ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X
41

For a Target Output of Rs.6847.6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7
Input s
V
a
l
u
e
s

i
n

R
s
.
Neuro Solutions
SPSS(RBF)
Original

Figure- 3
REFERENCES

[1]. Buhmann, Martin D. (2003), Radial Basis Functions: Theory and Implementations,
Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-63338-3.
[2]. Cheng, B. and Titterington, D. M. (1994). Neural networks: A review from a
statistical perspective. Statistical Science, 9: 2-54.
[3]. Cybenko, G. (1989). Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function.
Mathematics of Control, Signals and Systems, 2: 303-14.
[4]. Hertz, J ., Krogh, A. and Palmer, R.G. (1991). Introduction to the Theory of Neural
Computation. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
[5]. Lukaszyk, S. (2004) A new concept of probability metric and its applications in
approximation of scattered data sets. Computational Mechanics, 33, 299-3004.
[6]. Singh, R. K., and Prajneshu (2008). Artificial Neural Network Methodology for
Modeling and Forecasting Maize Crop Yield, Agricultural Economics Research
Review, 21: 5-10.
[7]. Warner, B. and Misra, M. (1996). Understanding neural networks as statistical tools.
American Statistician, 50: 284-93.
[8]. Zhang, G. P. (2007). Avoiding pitfalls in neural network research. IEEE Transactions
on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 37: 3-16.

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Artificial Neural Network Methodology For Modeling and Resource Use Optimization in Rice Yield

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I nternational J ournal of Creative Mathematical Sciences & Technology (I J CMST) 2(1): 35-41, 2012

ISSN (P): 2319 7811, ISSN (O): 2319 782X

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