Beruflich Dokumente
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Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 4QFY13 10,454 2,770 26.5 2,394 3QFY13 10,424 2,970 28.5 2,369 % chg (qoq) 0.3 (6.7) (199)bp 1.1 4QFY12 8,852 2,887 32.6 2,316 % chg (yoy) 18.1 (4.0) (612)bp 3.4
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 131,805 (21,832) 0.9 3010/2,102 125,399 5 18,243 5,529 INFY.BO INFY@IN
`2,297 `2,465
12 Months
4QFY2013 was yet another disappointing quarter for Infosys. The most disappointing thing in the quarters results is USD revenue growth being guided at 6-10% for FY2014, which is way below the streets expectation of 12-13%. The range of the guidance is wide which indicates the volatility foreseen by the Management. Also, the company has not put out any EPS guidance for FY2014, which could signify that there is risk towards the operating margin profile going ahead. Owing to the recent steep correction in the companys stock price, we maintain our Accumulate rating. Quarterly highlights: For 4QFY2013, Infosys reported a revenue of US$1,938mn, up just 1.4% qoq. Excluding Lodestone, the USD revenue grew by just 0.8% qoq. The overall volume growth came in at 1.8% qoq while overall pricing declined by 0.7% qoq. The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin declined by 199bp and 213bp qoq to 26.5% and 23.6%, respectively, due to impact of onsite wage hikes and Lodestone integration charges. The PAT was held up at `2,394cr, aided by other income of `674cr (vs `503cr in 3QFY2013). Outlook and valuation: The Management commentary indicates that the environment remains challenging and the company continues to see delays in decision making at clients ends. It indicated at the company witnessing pricing pressure even for typical IT operations kind of services, which are mostly non-discretionary in nature. Over FY2012-14E, we expect USD and INR revenue CAGR of 8.7% and 8.2%, respectively. The company is now highly focused on growth and this may lead to sacrifice in margins in the near term. Infosys stock price has corrected by ~22% today, which is its highest ever fall in a single trading session in the last decade. At the CMP of `2,297, the stock is trading at 13.6x and 12.6x its FY2014E and F2015E EPS, respectively, which appears to be attractive compared to its historical valuation. However, huge volatility in quarterly performance is unlikely to fetch Infosys a higher multiple in the near term. We value the company at 13.5x FY2015E EPS of `183 and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `2,465. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 19.2 4.8 25.0 25.9 4.2 12.8 FY2012 33,733 22.7 8,315 21.9 31.7 145.5 15.8 3.9 24.9 25.5 3.3 10.3 FY2013E 40,352 19.6 9,421 13.3 28.6 164.9 13.9 3.3 23.7 22.5 2.7 9.3 FY2014E 43,338 7.4 9,675 2.7 27.5 169.4 13.6 2.8 20.8 19.9 2.4 8.6 FY2015E 47,244 9.0 10,431 7.8 27.7 182.6 12.6 2.4 19.3 19.1 2.1 7.4
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 17.5 40.5 25.9
3m (7.2)
1yr 5.2
(15.4) (16.5)
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 10,454 6,494 3,960 1,190 2,770 308 2,462 674 3,136 742 2,394 41.9 37.9 26.5 23.6 21.5
3QFY13 10,424 6,273 4,151 1,181 2,970 293 2,677 503 3,180 811 2,369 41.5 39.8 28.5 25.7 21.7
% chg (qoq) 0.3 3.5 (4.6) 0.8 (6.7) 5.1 (8.0) (1.4) (8.5) 1.1 1.0 (194)bp (199)bp (213)bp (17)bp
4QFY12 8,852 4,959 3,893 1,006 2,887 240 2,647 652 3,299 984 2,316 40.5 44.0 32.6 29.9 24.4
% chg (yoy) 18.1 31.0 1.7 18.3 (4.0) 28.3 (7.0) (4.9) (24.6) 3.4 3.3 (610)bp (612)bp (635)bp (285)bp
FY2013 40,352 24,158 16,194 4,643 11,551 1,122 10,429 2,359 12,788 3,367 9,421 164.9 40.1 28.6 25.8 22.1
FY2012 33,733 18,877 14,856 4,147 10,709 931 9,778 1,904 11,683 3,368 8,315 145.5 44.0 31.7 29.0 23.3
% chg (yoy) 19.6 28.0 9.0 12.0 7.9 20.5 6.6 9.5 (0.0) 13.3 13.3 (391)bp (312)bp (314)bp (128)bp
(1.2)
5.8 3.8 2.7 2.4 1.7 (1.5) (2.1) (0.4) 2.0 1.8
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Volume growth
Service wise, revenue growth was led by products, platforms and solutions, the revenue from which grew by 5.1% qoq. Finacle, Infosys banking platform, reported a 6.5% revenue growth during the quarter. The TCV of products and platforms currently stands at ~US$645mn from US$603mn in 3QFY2013. IMS, which has been showing robust traction in the past couple of quarters, posted a revenue growth of 5.8% qoq in 4QFY2013. Revenues from BPO and PES services grew by 1.4% qoq, each. Infosys BPO has been performing considerably well since the past few quarters and the Management has indicated at trying to draw ~US$1bn of revenue from it in the next two years from ~US$470mn currently. Revenue from the companys anchor service verticals, application development and application maintenance, declined by 0.5% and grew by 0.9% qoq, respectively.
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 61.6 15.5 19.9 7.2 8.3 5.2 3.2 2.3 32.7 5.7 4.0 0.4 0.9 (0.5) 0.9 5.8 0.2 1.4 1.4 (2.8) 1.7 5.1 4.0 35.2 7.5 0.4 4.2 27.1 16.4 18.5 3.0 (6.8) 15.1 0.6 (0.5) 9.4
Industry-wise, the revenue from financial services and insurance (FSI), the companys anchor industry vertical contributing 33.9% to revenue, grew by 2.0% qoq, led by a 2.9% qoq growth in revenue from banking and financial services vertical. Revenue from the insurance vertical declined by 1.5% qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI grew by 2.7% qoq. The Management indicated that business prospects will remain muted for the next couple of years for discretionary spend in the FSI vertical. The spending from banks and financial institutions is coming from work related to risk compliance, cost cutting, customer centric applications, fraud prevention and risk management. Manufacturing (contributed 22.2% to revenue) posted a 3.8% qoq revenue growth and emerged as the primary growth driver for the company. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 3.9% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonizing processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. The Management indicated that budgets in manufacturing sub-segments such as aerospace, auto and hi-tech are flat to marginally down. The company expects revenues from manufacturing to pick up in H2FY2014, as the large inventory pile up finishes off at the clients ends and production picks up. The retail, CPG and logistics (RCL) segment (contributed 23.9% to revenue), which has been the primary growth driver for the company since last few quarters, reported a subdued 0.6% qoq revenue growth during 3QFY2013, led by 2.4% qoq decline in revenues from retail and CPG segment. Revenues from transport & logistics and lifesciences grew by 1.4% qoq each. In CC terms, the revenue from RCL grew by 0.8% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining traction on account of spends related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. But the Management expects discretionary spend in retail to pick up in H2FY2014. Modest growth from products and platforms is being seen from this industry. The energy utilities, communications & services (ECS) segment (contributed 20.0% to revenue) reported a 1.0% qoq decline in its revenues due to 2.3% and 1.7% qoq decline in revenues from energy & utilities and communication & services industries
April 12, 2013
respectively. In energy and utilities, the Management indicated that barring oil and few utility companies, growth will remain subdued in the near-term. In CC terms, revenue from this segment grew by 1.0% qoq.
% to revenue 33.9 27.2 6.7 22.2 23.9 15.4 1.8 4.8 1.9 20.0 5.2 9.3 5.5
% growth qoq 2.0 2.9 (1.5) 3.8 0.6 (2.4) 1.4 1.4 28.5 (1.0) (2.3) (1.7) 1.4
% growth yoy 8.2 8.6 6.3 14.1 14.2 6.7 23.1 34.7 29.9 1.8 (6.7) 0.8 13.6
In terms of geographies, revenue growth was primarily led by Europe, which posted a 6.5% qoq increase in revenues in CC terms, majorly led by revenue from Lodestone. Revenue from North America remained almost flat qoq despite signs of stability emerging out of the US economy. Revenue from rest of the world declined by 1.5% qoq in CC terms while that from India grew by 10% qoq.
14.4
5 0 (5) 0.8
2.5
7.4
6.5
0.1 (1.5)
(4.1) (7.2) 4QFY12 1QFY13 North America 2QFY13 Europe 3QFY13 Rest of the world 4QFY13
(10)
Utilization rate, including as well as excluding trainees, grew by 80bp and 70bp qoq to 70.9% and 73.9%, respectively.
73.0 71.6
73.3
73.2
73.9
(%)
67.2
265
(BP)
Client pyramid
Infosys added 56 new clients during the quarter, taking its total active client base to 798. The company witnessed addition of two clients in US$10mn-20mn revenue bracket and three in US$5mn-10mn revenue bracket. Revenues from the top 5 clients grew by 2.1% and 1.9% qoq, respectively.
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Guidance a negative surprise: Infosys has given FY2014 USD revenue growth guidance of 6-10%, which is way below street expectation of 12-13% and also lower than the software industry body Nasscoms estimate of 12-14%. The company is expected to grow in single digits in US dollar terms for FY2014 which is not good. The range of the guidance is wide, which indicates the volatility foreseen by the Management. Also, the company has refrained from putting out any EPS guidance for FY2014, which could be some sign of there being risk towards the operating margin profile going ahead. Pricing pressure foreseen in near term: The Management commentary indicates that the environment remains challenging and the company continues to see delays in decision making at clients ends. It indicated that pricing pressure is
April 12, 2013
(%)
30
being seen even for typical IT operations kind of services which are mostly nondiscretionary in nature. Early comments from the Management indicate that IT budgets are flat to marginally negative for CY2013. Over FY2012-14E, we expect USD and INR revenue CAGR of 8.7% and 8.2%, respectively. Operating margins to be under pressure: The company is now highly focused on growth and this may lead to sacrifice margins in the near term. The operating margin of the company currently faces headwinds because of the following reasons 1) onsite wage hike given in February 2013 will impact 1QFY2014 margins to an extent, 2) single digit margin profile of Lodestone, 3) pick up in onsite hiring, 4) subcontracting cost going up due to less number of visas and 5) pricing pressure seen for traditional IT services. The Management expects EBIT margin to remain flat on a yoy basis in FY2014 in the best case scenario (ie if INR remains range bound). Infosys has been posting a qoq margin decline since the past four quarters. Going ahead also we expect its operating margins to decline on account of the factors mentioned above. We expect EBIT margin to decline by ~110bp yoy to 24.7% for FY2014. Over FY201214E, we expect a CAGR of 6.2% and 5.3% in EBIT and PAT, respectively.
(`)
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
10x
Oct-12
Apr-13
Company Background
Infosys is the second largest IT company in India, employing over 1,50,000 professionals. The company services more than 750 clients across various verticals, such as financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail and healthcare. Infosys has the widest portfolio of service offerings amongst Indian IT companies, spanning across the entire IT service value chain - from traditional application development and maintenance to consulting and package implementation to products and platforms.
10
11
12
13
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.6 78 4.2 84 3.7 86 3.5 84 3.5 84 25.9 56.1 25.0 25.5 56.3 24.9 22.5 45.8 23.7 19.9 42.5 20.8 19.1 43.0 19.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.9 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 23.7 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.8 1.2 20.8 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.8 1.1 19.3 119 134 35 477 146 162 15 585 165 184 42 696 169 190 40 815 183 205 40 947 19.2 17.1 4.8 1.5 4.2 12.8 3.7 15.8 14.2 3.9 0.7 3.3 10.3 2.9 13.9 12.5 3.3 1.8 2.7 9.3 2.3 13.6 12.1 2.8 1.7 2.4 8.6 1.9 12.6 11.2 2.4 1.7 2.1 7.4 1.6 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
14
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
15