WHAT FACTOR ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INDIAN DEFENCE TO SHIFT FROM USING AN ORDINARY OLD WEAPON TO A MODERN NEW

WEAPON IN PRESENT SENARIO ?

(MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANANLYSIS)

BYVAIBHAV KUMAR (531) MBA TECH EXTC

Descriptive Statistics Mean Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate .2033 1.0000 8.0000 1.2873 7.4527 6.6513 Std. Deviation .03418 .00000 4.47214 .16027 2.81224 1.94688 N 15 15 15 15 15 15

The minimum ratio of valid cases to independent variables for multiple regressions is 5 to 1. Which is just 5:1 in this case So we except this data and we proceeds with other analysis.

Correlations Real Investment Pearson Correlation Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate Sig. (1-tailed) Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate N Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate 1.000 . .750 .863 .587 .478 . .000 .001 .000 .011 .036 15 15 15 15 15 . 1.000 . . . . .000 . .000 .000 .000 .000 15 15 15 15 15 .750 . 1.000 .979 .804 .635 .001 .000 . .000 .000 .005 15 15 15 15 15 .863 . .979 1.000 .804 .636 .000 .000 .000 . .000 .005 15 15 15 15 15 .587 . .804 .804 1.000 .724 .011 .000 .000 .000 . .001 15 15 15 15 15 .478 . .635 .636 .724 1.000 .036 .000 .005 .005 .001 . 15 15 15 15 15 Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate

Correlations Real Investment Pearson Correlation Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate Sig. (1-tailed) Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate N Real Investment Constant Trend Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate 1.000 . .750 .863 .587 .478 . .000 .001 .000 .011 .036 15 15 15 15 15 15 . 1.000 . . . . .000 . .000 .000 .000 .000 15 15 15 15 15 15 .750 . 1.000 .979 .804 .635 .001 .000 . .000 .000 .005 15 15 15 15 15 15 .863 . .979 1.000 .804 .636 .000 .000 .000 . .000 .005 15 15 15 15 15 15 .587 . .804 .804 1.000 .724 .011 .000 .000 .000 . .001 15 15 15 15 15 15 .478 . .635 .636 .724 1.000 .036 .000 .005 .005 .001 . 15 15 15 15 15 15

Constant

Trend

Real GNP Interest Rate Inflation Rate

Variables Entered/Removed Model Variables Entered 1 Inflation Rate, Trend, Interest Rate, Real GNP a. All requested variables entered.
a

Variables Removed

Method

. Enter

Model Summary

Model

Adjusted R Std. Error of the R Square Square Square Change Estimate R

a

Change Statistics F Change 88.188 4 10 df1 df2 Sig. F Change .000

DurbinWatson

.986

.972

.961

.00671

.972

1.964

a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation Rate, Trend, Interest Rate, Real GNP b. Dependent Variable: Real Investment The Multiple R for the relationship between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable is 0.986, which would be characterized as very strong using the rule of thumb than a correlation less than or equal to 0.20 is characterized as very weak; greater than 0.20 and less than or equal to 0.40 is weak; greater than 0.40 and less than or equal to 0.60 is moderate; greater than 0.60 and less than or equal to 0.80 is strong; and greater than 0.80 is very strong. The Durbin Watson statistics for this data is 1.964 which is within the required range (1.5 to 2.5) which means that the errors are uncorrelated there is no autocorrelation. ANOVA Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .016 .000 .016 df 4 10 14
b

Mean Square .004 .000

F 88.188

Sig. .000
a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation Rate, Trend, Interest Rate, Real GNP b. Dependent Variable: Real Investment

The probability of the F statistic (88.188) for the overall regression relationship is <0.001, less than or equal to the level of significance of 0.05. We reject the null hypothesis that there is no relationship between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable (R = 0). We support the research hypothesis that there is a statistically significant relationship between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable.
Coefficients Model Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error Standardized Coefficients Beta Zeroorder 1 (Constant) Trend -.509 -.017 .055 .002 -9.234 .000 -2.170 -8.409 .000 .750 -.936 .442 Real GNP .670 .055 3.144 12.189 .000 .863 .968 .640 .041 24.128 .041 24.147
a

Sig.

Correlations

Collinearity Statistics

Partial Part Tolerance

VIF

Interest Rate Inflation Rate

-.002

.001

-.191 -1.908 .085

.587 -.517

.100

.274

3.649

-9.401E-5

.001

-.005 -.070 .946

.478 -.022

.004

.468

2.137

a.

Dependent Variable: Real Investment Tolarence >0.2 => no multicolinearity Tolerance of variable Xi is 1-Ri * where Ri * is coefficient of determination for the prediction of variable i by the other predictor variables. Tolerance value near to 0 indicate that the variable is highly predicted (colinear) with other predictor variables VIF Variance Inflation Factor should be less than 5
2 2

For the independent variable trends , real gnp ,interest , rate and inflation the probability of the t statistic (-8.409 ,12.189 , -1.098 , -.070 respectively) for the b coefficient is <0.001 which is less than or equal to the level of significance of 0.05. We reject the null hypothesis that the slope associated with sale of trends , real gnp ,interest , rate and inflation is equal to zero (b = 0) and conclude that there is a statistically significant relationship between the real investment and ( trends , real gnp ,interest , rate and inflation) ie the independent variables. Collinearity Diagnostics
a

Model Dimension Eigenvalue

Condition Index (Constant) .00 .00 .00 .00 .99 Trend

Variance Proportions Real GNP .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 Interest Rate Inflation Rate .00 .01 .18 .80 .01 .00 .00 .37 .63 .00

1 2 3 4 5

4.802 .139 .037 .022 .000

1.000 5.879 11.411 14.864 115.740

.00 .04 .05 .02 .89

a. Dependent Variable: Real Investment Residuals Statistics Minimum Predicted Value Residual Std. Predicted Value Std. Residual .1549 -.01028 -1.438 -1.531 Maximum .2587 .00804 1.644 1.198
a

Mean .2033 .00000 .000 .000

Std. Deviation .03370 .00567 1.000 .845

N 15 15 15 15

a. Dependent Variable: Real Investment

Charts

This graph is almost Normal Distribution.

Scatter plot

this graph indicates no sign of hetro dencity