Integrated GIS-based Low and High fidelity flood simulations

Sudha.Yerramilli, Muhammad Akbar, Reena Patel and Shahrouz Aliabadi Northrop Grumman Center for HPC , Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi 39217

Introduction
An efficient flood risk management requires the knowledge of spatial and temporal distribution of floods. Knowledge of spatial distribution of flood and its possible damage potentials are very crucial for risk mapping and decision support systems. Therefore, appropriate methods, models and technologies that can simulate and visualize flood characteristics are essential and can be considered as the corner stones of the mitigation efforts. Our high fidelity flood simulation research proposes an integrated tool for multi-scale storm surge and overland flow (flood) forecast, as well as evaluation of the flood damage on coastal infrastructure including transportation systems in the Mississippi coast. Based on the latest meteorological data, wind speed, pressure, rain, ocean water surge can be predicted. Several hurricane forecasting models are executed in sequence to obtain those information. The ocean water surge is then used to predict the overland water flow in the coastal area. The results from the models are fed into Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for visualization, analysis and decision-making. Flood initiated from the rain, river overflow, and dam-break is another component of the project. Our low fidelity flood simulation proposes flood initiated from the rain, river overflow, and dam-break. By generating information like inundated areas, water depths, flow direction etc, this study can help the decision making agencies in implementing non-structural solutions such as controlling development in flood-prone areas, planning new dams and managing appropriate land use practices that minimize possible flood damages.

Results
40
31

Conclusions
Hurricane Katrina 23-31 August
Hurricane Tropical Storm Tropical Dep. Extratropical Subtr. Storm Subtr. Dep. Low / Wave
30

35

An integrated tool for high fidelity multi-scale storm surge and overland flow forecast, as well as evaluation of the flood damage on coastal infrastructure including transportation systems in the Mississippi coast has been proposed. The hurricane wind speed, pressure, and rain information is simulated by WRF using the latest meteorological data. Accuracy of WRF depends on the accuracy of meteorological data available. To simulate correct water elevation by ADCIRC, latest WRF result, including the correct landfall location, is needed. Hurricane landfall location is important. A hurricane striking Louisiana coast may cause devastating water surge because of the converging funnel effect of the land. ADCIRC simulation of several days prior to hurricane landfall is needed to capture all short and long waves. Typically 5-7 days of simulation is good. Overland results heavily depends on the ADCIRC shoreline water surge. On the other hand, since the code is diffusive in nature, a safety factor should be applied. In an actual hurricane event frequent simulation of WRF, ADCIRC, and CaMEL Overland in sequence is needed for dynamic forecast. The results from these above mentioned models are fed into Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for visualization, analysis and decision-making. The combination of Arc GIS and HEC RAS 1-D low fidelity flood simulation model indicate the capability of simulating flood events and spatially depicting the degree of exposure or vulnerability of the region towards a hazard event in terms of inundation extent and depth grids. Information tools developed using the combination of these technologies can generate invaluable information and assist the decision making authorities to make informed choices towards mitigating the catastrophic effects of flooding disaster.

00 UTC Pos/Date 12 UTC Position PPP Min. press (mb) 928 mb

30
920 mb
29

902 mb
26 25

25
28 27

984 mb
24

20 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Katrina (Aug 23-31, 2005) wind pressure plots. (a) WRF simulation starting from Aug 26, 00 A.M., (b) WRF simulation starting from Aug 27, 12 P.M. (c) Actual, using Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) from Aug 24 to Aug 31, (d) Track path WRF simulation results heavily depend on the latest meteorological data. Hurricane may take unexpected turns, which only the latest meteorological data may reflect. Therefore, WRF is recommended to run for not more than 2 to 3 days in advance. Figure (a) falsely shows the hurricane is striking the ground near Mississippi-Alabama coast. It is mainly because WRF could not predict the path accurately based on the meteorological data available on Aug 26, 00 A.M. Actual hurricane path is shown in Figure (c) and (d). Figure (b) predicts the hurricane well. In actual hurricane event, WRF should be run more frequently to predict the latest path, strength, and landfall location of hurricane.

Materials and Methods

A complete and integrated high fidelity hurricane flood simulation requires several software to be executed in sequence:
Open source code Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) [1] provides wind speed, pressure, rain, etc information based on the latest meteorological data. WRF is a parallel model, which is designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. It is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers. Wind speed and pressure from WRF is used in open source code ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) [2] to calculate the ocean water elevation. ADCIRC is a highly developed computer program for solving the equations of motion for a moving fluid on a rotating earth. The time dependent shoreline water surge data from ADCIRC and rain data from WRF are used as the Dirichlet boundary input in our CaMEL Overland code [3] to predict flooding in the coastal region. The rain data predicted from WRF is used as the source term in the model.

(e)

(f)

(g)

(h)

ADCIRC simulation high water elevation for Katrina with wind speed and pressure obtained from (e) WRF simulation, starting from Aug 27, 00 A.M., (f) Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), starting from Aug 28, 00 A.M. (g) PBL, starting from 27, 00 A.M., (h) Actual / PBL, starting from Aug 23, 6 P.M. ADCIRC requires wind speed and pressure from WRF. The results depend on the accuracy of WRF simulation. The WRF result used in Figure (e) did not have latest meteorological data. It shows water surge is occurring somewhere in east compared to the actual location shown in Figure (h). ADCIRC simulation has to be done for several days around the hurricane period, typically 5-7 days, to get reasonably good results. Longer simulation period captures both short and long wave lengths. Figure (g) is somewhat better than Figure (f) because of longer simulation period. Comparison should be made with Figure (h). ADCIRC also needs tidal information, which can be interpolated from tidal database. Landfall location makes a huge difference. Hurricane striking Louisiana coast may cause huge water surge because of converging funnel effect of the land.

Literature Cited
1. Michalakes, J., J. Dudhia, D. Gill, J. Klemp and W. Skamarock: Design of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model : Towards Teracomputing, World Scientific, River Edge, New Jersey, 1998, pp. 117-124. 2. Westerink, J. J., Luettich, R. A., Blain, C. A., & Scheffner, N. W., ADCIRC: An advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts and estuaries. Report 2: Users Manual for ADCIRC2DDI. Technical Report DRP-94, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 3. Akbar, M.K., Aliabadi, S., Wan, T., and Patel, R. "Overland Flow Modeling of Mississippi Coastal Region Using Finite Element Method", Accepted, 19th AIAA Computational Fluid Dynamics Conference, June 22-25, 2009, San Antonio, TX. 4. Beinhorn, M., Kolditz, O., Overland flow theory and implementation. GeoSys - Preprint. Tubingen March 2005. Version 2005.1.1. ZAG Publisher 5. U.S.Army Corps of Engineers. http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras/

The graphical presentation shows the integration of the whole simulation process:

WRF

Visualization

GIS GIS CaMEL Overland Shoreline Water Elevation

ADCIRC

(i) The low fidelity flood simulation is done using Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC RAS), a U.S Army corps1-D Model [5] for the coastal counties of Mississippi. Hazard identification and vulnerability assessment is visually represented by overlaying HEC-RAS output with the thematic layers of the key facilities in the coastal counties using ArcGIS.
Collection of Data

(j)

(k)

(l)

Simulated Katrina flood by CaMEL Overland model. (i) Validation with 1-D benchmark result [4], (j) High Water Mark (HWM) from simulation, (k) HWM observation locations superimposed on simulated result, (l) Comparison of observed and simulated HWM. (WRF rain data was not used in the current study) The CaMEL Overland has been benchmarked, as shown in Figure (i). Overland simulation depends on the ADCIRC result along the coast line. Figure (j) shows the simulated flooded regions. In general, simulated result and observed data compare well, shown in Figures (k) and (l). Over prediction by our model in some locations may have caused by over prediction by ADCIRC in the coast line. diffusive overland model we have used without any ground and structural friction effects The preprocessing of the geospatial data was done using HEC Geo RAS. The preprocessed data is then exported to HEC-RAS The May 1995 Southern Mississippi flood, which is considered as significant hydrological event (a 100-year rainfall event), is simulated by using USGS stream flow data available for Harrison and Hancock counties. A steady flow simulation was performed on HEC RAS model and the output was exported to HEC Geo RAS for post processing to delineate the flood inundation areas A visual presentation of flood water in combination with thematic maps (key facilities) is developed using Arc GIS

Acknowledgements
This project was funded through the Southeast Region Research Initiative program from the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure and Geophysical Division.

Obtain USGS Stream flow data for 100-year flood event

Preprocess Geospatial data using HEC GeoRAS

Prepare Thematic layers in Arc GIS

Digital Elevation Model (DEM) MARIS 100 Year Stream flow data, River/stream data, Land Cover- USGS. Inventory data on the property, utilities, infrastructure HAZUS(MH)

Simulate Flood using HEC RAS for the 100year flood Event Post process HECRAS Output using HEC GeoRAS

For further Information

Contact Information: Dr. Shahrouz Aliabadi, saliabadi@jsums.edu. More information on this and related projects can be obtained at www.ngc.jsums.edu

Overlay Flood inundation output with thematic layers

(a) HEC RAS flood simulation for the 100-year rainfall event in May 1995

Disseminate information using Arc IMS