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Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013 Asia Pacific Global Research Investment horizon: 6 12+ months

Research Weekly Asia Avian flu: Lessons learned from SARS in 2003
Private Banking

Concerns about avian flu outbreak in China Rising death toll, disease spreads to Beijing and Henan The recent outbreak of avian flu in China has dampened investment sentiment towards Chinese equities. By 14 April, the number of confirmed H7N9 cases in China had increased to 60, with the death toll rising to 13 and the disease spreading from Eastern China to Beijing and the central province of Henan (Figure 1). The recent outbreak of avian flu has taken a tragic toll on human lives. Both the Chinese government and the World Health Organization (WHO) are stepping up coordinated precautionary efforts to contain the disease. Credit Suisse is not providing an investment recommendation in anticipation of a further spread of the disease. However, for informational purposes and in response to increasing investor concerns about the potential market implications of the bird flu outbreak, we examine in this report the lessons learnt from the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003, which infected 8,096 Figure 1 Number of reported H7N9 cases in China (as of 14 April)
25 24

Highlights

The recent outbreak of avian flu in China has dampened investment sentiment towards Chinese equities. It is too early to assess the pandemic potential of the current avian flu outbreak in China and its fundamental impact. We examine the market and economic performance during the SARS crisis in 2003 and find that market reactions and the macroeconomic impact tend to be short-lived, market-focused and sectorspecific.

Top investment ideas FX: We recommend investors short JPY, mainly through the option market, and SELL JPY on bouts of strength with our USD/JPY forecasts at 102 in 3 months and 105 in 12 months. EM Bonds: BUY Bank of Ceylon 5.325% 04/16/2018 The largest commercial bank in Sri Lanka with good asset quality and a strong capital base.

20
16 15 10 5 0 Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Henan Beijing Number of reported cases
Source: China's National Health and Family Planning Commission, Credit Suisse

15

Important disclosures are found in the Disclosure appendix

Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this report, please refer to the following Internet link: https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Figure 2 Relative performance of Asian markets during the SARS crisis


125 115 105 95 85

Figure 3 Correction of MSCI Asia ex-Japan during the SARS crisis


700 600 500 400 300 200 +207% 1997-1998 financial crisis -66.4% 2000-2002 TMT crisis +74.9% -57.3% -9% 2003 SARS crisis 2007-2008 global credit crisis

-66.4%

+34.9%

75

+153.3%
Jul 01 Jul 02
Jul 97 Jul 98 Jul 99 Jul 00

Jul 03

Jul 04

Jul 05

Jul 06

Jul 07

MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index Hang Seng Index


Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

MSCI World Index Straits Times Index

MSCI AC ASIA x JAPAN


Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

people and claimed 774 lives worldwide. At this point, the WHO says that there is no evidence yet of human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 virus, and the organization is not recommending any travel restrictions be applied. Short-term market jitters We believe that it is too early to assess the pandemic potential of avian flu and estimate the market impact of a real and widespread pandemic, which is not our base-case scenario. But the SARS crisis in 2003 shows us that market reactions to the pandemic were short-lived, while the fundamental impact was very market-focused and sector-specific. The SARS experience shows us that markets generally perceive emerging markets as more vulnerable to pandemic risks, due to their lower spending on healthcare and medical services. Since China and Hong Kong were at the epicenter of the SARS outbreak, the Hang Seng Index underperformed the global markets by 15% during the crisis period, but sharply turned around to outperform the MSCI World in the postSARS recovery period in H2 2003 (Figure 2). What can we learn from SARS? As the current avian flu outbreak is concentrated in the Eastern China region, the Chinese and Hong Kong equity markets are the most sensitive to the news flow related to the outbreak. The SARS example suggests that the market impact of the pandemic should be temporary and very sector-specific. From the pre-SARS peak on 24 February until 27 April 2003, when the WHO declared that the SARS epidemic was under control, both the MSCI Asia ex-Japan and the Hang Seng Index declined by only 9% from peak to trough (Figure 3). While the SARS-induced market correction was pronounced and brief, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan sharply rebounded 58% from the SARS-trough on 25 April 2003 to 255 at the end of 2003, thanks to strong government stimulus measures to revive the economy across Asia. From the pre-SARS peak on 24 February until 27 April 2003, the MSCI China lost 10.7%,

but the index strongly rebounded by 30.6% three months after 27 April. SARS impact was market-focused and sector-specific With respect to sector implications, Asian aviation, transportation, travel and hotel stocks were hit the hardest by the SARS crisis. During the SARS epidemic, tourist arrivals plunged across Asia, falling 60%80% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2003 in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan, and 30%-50% YoY in South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines (Figure 4). The fundamental impact of H7N9 on the travel and tourism-related sectors will largely hinge on whether the WHO recommends travel restrictions. Based on the SARS example, the sectors which are expected to underperform during a more severe and widespread avian flu outbreak are aviation, transportation, tourism and travel, while the consumer staples, energy and utilities sectors are expected to stay relatively resilient. Fan Cheuk Wan, cheukwan.fan@credit-suisse.com Economic impact of SARS on China and Asia Temporary impact of SARS on Chinese economy Whereas the first known case of SARS in China was detected in November 2002, the outbreak only gained wider public attention in late-February 2003. The outbreak peaked in April 2003, and by June, the disease had been largely contained. The negative impact on economic activity in China and other Asian economies was thus mainly confined to Q2 2003, and pent-up demand helped drive a sharp rebound in economic activity in H2 2003. China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fell abruptly from 10.8% YoY in Q1 2003 to 7.9% YoY in Q2 as a result of a drop in economic activity, ranging from passenger travel to retail sales and industrial production (Figure 5). After accounting for Q2 seasonal effects, the impact was estimated to be around 2.4% points, or about 0.6% points on an 2

Jul 08

Jul 02

Jan 03

Jul 03

Jan 04

100

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Figure 4 Tourist arrivals declined sharply but recovered quickly in 2003


Tourist arrivals % YoY 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

Figure 5 SARS impact on Chinas GDP growth in 2003


YoY % 12 11 10 9 8 7

SARS crisis

Economy rebounded after SARS

Jan 03 HK
PH

Apr 03 ID
SG

Jul 03

Oct 03 KR
TW

Jan 04 MY
TH

6
Sep 02 Mar 03 Sep 03 Mar 04 Real GDP growth Sep 04

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse

annualized basis. By Q4 2003, growth had normalized with GDP growing by 9.9% YoY. The impact of SARS varied across the different sectors of the Chinese economy. The impact on passenger travel was most pronounced, but also short-lived. Railway and airline passenger volume plunged 61% and 71% YoY, respectively, in May, but by August, passenger traffic had normalized. YoY retail sales growth fell by more than half, dropping from an average of 14% in JanuaryFebruary 2003 to reach 6.5% YoY in May, although it bounced back quickly to 14.6% YoY in July. On a relative basis, industrial production (IP) and trade appeared least affected by the SARS outbreak. IP growth moderated from an average of 17.3% YoY in January February 2003, reaching a low of 13.7% YoY in May, before recovering to 16.9% in June. Exports were barely affected, with growth rates remaining high at around 34% YoY in Q2 2003. Limited impact of SARS on Chinas inflation The crisis had limited discernible effect on inflation during the crisis period in Q2 2003, but inflation rose quickly in H2 2003, Figure 6 SARS impact on Chinas inflation rate in 2003
YoY % 6 5 4 3 2 1 SARS outbreak

when demand rebounded. Prices of meat and poultry in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were stable in Q2, despite a sharp drop in poultry demand, as there was likely some substitution effect that led to higher prices of pork and other meat products. CPI meat prices rose sharply in H2 2003, however, due to an undersupply of poultry as demand gradually normalized. In general, the pricing power of retailers in Q2 2003 was weak as a result of reduced consumer spending during the crisis. As such, inflation was low at 0.7% YoY in Q2, but rose steadily in H2 2003 to reach 3.3% in December (Figure 6). Small open economies in Asia were hardest hit in 2003 During the SARS outbreak, other Asian economies were temporarily hurt by the slowdown in tourist arrivals and retail spending. In particular, the small open economies of Hong Kong and Singapore witnessed the sharpest swings in growth outcomes. Singapore's economy contracted by 4.7% QoQ (saar basis) in Q2 2003, but staged a strong growth recovery in Q3 of 23.5%. The recovery extended into 2004, with QoQ growth averaging 11.5% in the next two quarters. In Hong Kong, the economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4% QoQ in Q2 2003, but similarly rebounded by 6.1% in Q3. Property sales fell sharply, with prices falling to the lowest point in July 2003. Hong Kong's deflation cycle also bottomed at 4.0% in July 2003. Dennis Tan, dennis.tan@credit-suisse.com Implications of avian flu for Asian aviation sector Do not panic by selling Chinese and Hong Kong airlines In the absence of a widespread outbreak of the disease, we maintain our positive fundamental view on Chinese airlines. In our view, the markets response to the risk of a pandemic has become more rational since the SARS outbreak. During the SARS crisis, the shares of Asian airlines tumbled 25%43%. During the 2009 swine flu episode, the share prices of 3

Economy rebounded after SARS

0
-1 -2 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 CPI inflation
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse

Jan 04

Jul 04

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Chinese airlines briefly dipped 15%20%, followed by sharp a rebound within two weeks. Therefore, we advise against panic selling Chinese and Hong Kong airline stocks at this point, particularly when a stream of positive factors, including lower fuel prices, a strengthening CNY and stabilizing outbound traffic to Japan, are in play to boost profitability. On a 612 month strategic investment horizon, we maintain our positive fundamental view on Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY) and Air China (753 HK, BUY), as their prevailing price-to-book valuations of 0.85 and 1.2, respectively, are at the lower end of their respective historical valuation ranges. Yu Wenchi, wenchi.yu@credit-suisse.com ASEAN airlines with company-specific drivers

episode indicates that share price performance, even within the airline sector, can be expected to remain very companyspecific. Between March and September 2009, SIAs (SIA SP, HOLD) underperformance relative to the Straits Times Index troughed at around 37%, while AirAsia (AIRA MK, BUY) was far more resilient, with its performance relative to the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index reaching a trough of just 4.7%. We believe that as a full-service carrier, SIA could continue to face headwinds from a challenging operating environment and high fuel costs. Despite rising competition, we believe AirAsia remains well positioned to capture growing demand for low-cost air travel in Asia, supported by rising income levels, superior brand equity and its leading position among low-cost airlines. Adam Quek, adam.quek@credit-suisse.com

In Southeast Asia, we expect the potential impact of avian flu on aviation stocks to be relatively short-lived, barring an escalation of the outbreak. The swine flu outbreak in 2009 saw ASEAN airline stocks initially decline by 5%10% before rebounding firmly a month later. However, the swine flu

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Short-term currency and commodity strategy


Marcus Hettinger, marcus.hettinger@creditsuisse.com Heng Koon How, koonhow.heng@creditsuisse.com Stefan Graber, stefan.graber@creditsuisse.com The table below summarizes our short-term (one-month) directional views and targets for selected key exchange rates, based on a weighted blend of technical and fundamental inputs. A more comprehensive list of currencies and commodities was covered in the weekly publication of Currency and Commodity Strategy dated 15 April 2013.

JPY: Fundamentals and technicals indicate further weakness. We recommend being short JPY, mainly through the option market, and selling JPY on bouts of strength. EUR still supported by technicals. Key support remains at 1.27, next resistance at 1.32/1.33. We remain bullish EUR/USD.

Short-term currency and commodity views Currency pair / Precious metal EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/SGD USD/CNY*** Spot* 3M implied volatility* Hi/Low Last 30 days 12/04/13 Hi/Low Last 30 days 12/04/13
1.3124 1.2772 99.730 92.870 1.5400 1.4902 0.9538 0.9273 1.0556 1.0312 0.8634 0.8214 1.0279 1.0103 1.2517 1.2368 6.3127 6.2575

1M target or range 1.33 101.0 1.51-1.55 0.91 1.02-1.06 0.83-0.87 1.00-1.04 1.23-1.26 6.25

1M view**

Comment Bullish: Rising EUR risk premium gives a more neutral view, but technical momentum is positive EUR. Bullish: Technical momentum is USD positive. BoJ easing to lead to capital outflows. Neutral: BoE could ease further, rating downgrade and external deficit. But technicals still neutral. Bearish: SNB intervention caps CHF strength vs. EUR, technical momentum is CHF positive. Neutral: Technical momentum is neutral AUD. Cycle view also neutral as RBA to ease less. Neutral: Technical momentum is neutral NZD. Central bank is still concerned about currency strength. Neutral: Technical momentum is bullish USD, but CAD to benefit from high oil price. Neutral: MAS to maintain SGD appreciation path to counter sticky inflation. Momentum now positive USD. Bearish: Economic numbers in China continue to improve. Growth likely to have stabilized around 7.5%.

1.3113 98.370 1.5343 0.9273 1.0508 0.8589 1.0136 1.2368 6.2575

9.3% 8.0% 13.4% 11.4% 8.5% 6.9% 8.8% 7.6% 7.5% 6.9% 9.5% 8.6% 6.4% 5.9% 4.8% 3.9% 1.6% 1.3%

8.1% 12.9% 6.9% 7.8% 7.0% 8.8% 6.1% 3.9% 1.6%

Source: Credit Suisse/IDC, Bloomberg * Data as of London close, with band representing +/- 1 standard deviation from 30-day average. ** 1-month view is a weighted combination of technical and fundamental inputs. *** 12-month non-deliverable forward rate is used for USD/CNY.

Market Gold Silver Platinum Palladium WTI Crude Oil Aluminum Copper Nickel Corn Cotton
1) 2) 3)

Current price1)

3M implied volatility1)

Views2)

Forecasts3) 1M 3M 12M

Hi/Low Last 30 days 12/04/13 Hi/Low Last 30 days 12/04/13 <1M 1-6M 6-12M+ 1615 16.0% 1506.25 16.0% 1506 11.7% 29.26 24.4% 26.44 24.4% 26.44 20.5% 1597 17.5% 1494.99 15.6% 1495 14.9% 784 25.4% 707.85 25.1% 708 23.5% 97.23 22.9% 91.29 21.0% 91.29 16.0% 1979 18.7% 1854 17.5% 1854 17.5% 7800 18.2% 7407 16.7% 7388 16.1% 17225 22.2% 15850 20.8% 15850 20.7% 741.25 24.5% 658.50 21.5% 629.00 11.3% 92.50 28.6% 85.58 25.9% 84.64 20.2%

Short-term Strategy Momentum remains negative. Investor selling has intensified. Negative outlook. Watch for key support at USD 1520/1530. Momentum remains negative. Silver's outlook remains closely correlated to that of gold. Watch for key support at USD 26. Momentum remains negative but fundamentals remain firmly positive. Near-term uncertainty but renewed upside later on. Momentum downgrade to neutral. Technicals not as strong anymore but uptrend remains intact and fundamentals are positive. Momentum downgrade to neutral. Cycle is neutral as US market is well supplied. Neutral view but pullback appears advanced. Neutral momentum. While the market should benefit from economic stabilization, sideways trading is the most likely pattern for now. Neutral momentum. Correction appears overdone but trading could remain choppy for now. Some upside later on. Neutral momentum. Supply is plentiful but global growth is improving. Valuation is supportive over 12M. Momentum remains negative. The market is expensive and fundamentals are beyond the peak. Risks are to the downside. Supply and demand dynamics warrant neutral rating. However, the market has gathered momentum and trend is positive.

1530 1600 1600 26.00 30.00 30.00 1525 1650 1750 720 94 780 93 850 100

1870 2000 2100 7500 7800 8200 16500 17000 19000 610 90 740 100 600 95

Source: Credit Suisse/IDC, Bloomberg Data as of London close. Spot prices for precious metals, 3M forwards for industrial metals, front month futures for all other markets with band representing +/- 1 standard deviation from 30-day average. Views are a weighted combination of technical and fundamental inputs. Forecasts as published in the latest Research Monthly - Commodities.

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

The Trade recap / new trades This week, we have one new FX trade: Buy 3M EUR/SEK put spread: Buy EUR put/SEK call 3M option with strike at 8.30 and sell EUR put/SEK call 3M option at strike 8.00. Approx. Premium: -0.9%. Please note trade ideas and follow-up actions published in the Research Weekly - Currency & Commodity Strategy (reprinted in this document), our Research Monthlies and Investment Idea publications for execution "at current spot rate" are presumed to be actioned at the next fixing following the publication of the document.

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

New trades Publication Entry date BUY / Underlying SELL BUY 3M EUR/SEK put spread BUY SELL 6M CAD/JPY risk-reversal EUR/HUF Entry FX rate Premium ~-0.9% 98.076 310.00 +0.21% Target StopSpot loss underlying* 8.326 98.149 300.89 P/L Comment Long EUR put / SEK call strike at 8.30; Short EUR put / SEK call strike at 8.00. Long call strike 101; Short put strike 95. Limit entry at 310.

CCS/15/04/13 15/04/13 RA/10/04/13 RA/12/03/13 10/04/13 Pending

0.03%

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg; CCS = Currency & Commodity Strategy, RM = Research Monthly, RF = Research Flash * Spot rate of underlying instrument as of London open on Friday preceding publication of document. Open trades Publication Entry date BUY / Underlying SELL BUY 3M EUR/JPY risk-reversal BUY BUY 3M EUR/CHF zero-cost riskreversal A basket of equally-weighted 12-month forwards in MXN, BRL, TRY, PLN and RUB versus GBP XPD/XPT 3M USD/BRL risk-reversal GBP/TRY 12M NDF 3M USD/JPY bullish riskreversal June 2013 put option on Brent oil, strike: 103.0 3M EUR/GBP bullish risk reversal 3M GBP put option/USD call strike 1.45 12M USD/TRY risk reversal 6M USD/RUB risk reversal 3-legged EUR/CHF bullish diagonal calendar call spread structure EUR/CHF 3M USD put / CAD call, strike 0.98 3M EUR/CZK butterfly 3M USD put / CHF call, strike 0.91 3M AUD put / NZD call, strike 1.23 3M EUR call / USD put, strike 1.35 6M EUR/CHF zero-cost risk reversal EUR/CHF 6M EUR call / CHF put option, strike 1.23 6M XPT call / USD put, strike 1650 AUD/USD Equally-weighted 12M forward basket of Asian FX + MXN against EUR and USD (equal weights) 12M AUD/USD zero-cost bearish 3-legged option structure for AUD downside hedge December 2014 call option on Brent oil, strike 111.0 Entry FX rate 128.73 1.2170 100.00 Premium -2.51% 0.0% 108.00 96.500 Target StopSpot loss underlying* 129.71 P/L 0.58% Comment Long call strike 128, short put strike 120. Long call strike 1.2352; Short put strike 1.2089. Long MXN, BRL, TRY, PLN and RUB 12M forwards against GBP.

CCS/08/04/13 08/04/13 CCS/08/04/13 08/04/13 RM/26/03/13 26/03/13

1.2177 -0.01% 100.58 0.58%

RW/26/03/13 RA/19/03/13

26/03/13 19/03/13

BUY SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY BUY SELL SELL BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY SELL BUY SELL BUY

0.4810 1.9879 2.8655 93.280 108.13 0.8642 1.5127 1.8031 30.380 1.2342 1.2302 0.9991 25.591 0.9321 1.2572 1.3367 1.2078 1.2066 1.2066 1578.0 1.0383 100.00 +0.45% -4.15% -0.45% -1.24% -0.78% -0.55% -1.18% 0.00% -0.61% +2.2% -0.11% -0.65% +4.47% +2.96% +0.41% +1.11%

0.5600 +1.2% 2.7300

0.4365 -2.00% 2.9500

0.4737 -1.52% 1.9779 2.8628 99.290 104.04 0.34% 0.10% 4.23% 0.42% Long call strike 0.89; short put strike 0.84. Short call strike 2.00; long put strike 1.95; Stop-loss at -2% P&L. Take profit at 1.2% P&L. Entry at 2.8655 on 18/03/2013. Long call strike 95, short put strike 90.5.

CCS/18/03/13 18/03/13 CCS/04/03/13 04/03/13 CCS/04/03/13 04/03/13 RW/26/02/13 RW/26/02/13 26/02/13 26/02/13

0.8498 -0.51% 1.5374 -0.62% +1.7% -2.00% 1.7896 1.44%

CCS/25/02/13 25/02/13 CCS/25/02/13 25/02/13 RW/19/02/13 RW/05/02/13 19/02/13 05/02/13

30.947 -0.12% 1.2177 -0.17% 1.2900 1.1980 1.2177 -1.02% 1.0116 -0.44% 25.867 0.68%

Short call strike 1.81. long put strike at 1.79; Stop-loss at -2% P&L. Take-profit at +1.7% P&L. Short call strike 30.90. long put strike at 29.50. Short 1M EUR/CHF call strike 1.2375; Long 3M EUR/CHF call strike 1.2725 Short 3M EUR/CHF put strike 1.2210.

CCS/04/02/13 04/02/13 RA/23/01/13 23/01/13

Long call strike 25.0, short two calls both strikes at 25.7, long call strike 26.3.

CCS/21/01/13 21/01/13 CCS/14/01/13 14/01/13 CCS/14/01/13 14/01/13 CCS/17/12/12 17/12/12 CCS/10/12/12 10/12/12 CCS/10/12/12 10/12/12 CCS/19/11/12 19/11/12 CCS/01/10/12 01/10/12 CCS/03/09/12 03/09/12

0.9321 -0.77% 1.2243 -0.14% 1.3064 -1.18% 1.2177 1.1900 1.2177 1.2177 0.57% 0.92% 0.03% Long call strike at 1.2162, short put strike at 1.2000. Covered call strategy on EUR/CHF. Covered call strategy on EUR/CHF.

1522.8 -4.02% 1.0000 105.00 1.0650 100.00 1.0541 -1.52% 102.29 2.29% Changed the stop-loss from 1.055 to 1.065 on 10/12/12. Top investment idea for 2012. Long CNY, SGD, KRW, MXN against EUR and USD (equal weights). Buy 12M 0.95 AUD put, sell 12M 0.90 AUD put, sell 12M 1.0589 AUD call. Trade takes advantage of the steep backwardation in Brent. Call strike at 111.0.

CCS/21/05/12 21/05/12

BUY

0.9856

0.00%

1.0540 -0.54%

CCS/05/12/11 05/12/11

BUY

96.740

-10.45%

98.950 -7.88%

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg; CCS = Currency & Commodity Strategy, RM = Research Monthly, RF = Research Flash * Spot rate of underlying instrument as of London open on Friday preceding publication of document.

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Closed trades since last Currency & Commodity Strategy Publication Entry date BUY / Underlying SELL BUY 3M XPD call / USD put, strike 740 Entry FX rate 703.50 Premium -3.29% Target Stoploss Closing P/L FX rate 732.5 -2.43% Comment Closed at spot rate on 08/04/13.

CCS/14/01/13 14/01/13

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg; CCS = Currency & Commodity Strategy, RM = Research Monthly, RF = Research Flash * Spot rate of underlying instrument as of London open on Friday preceding publication of document.

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Fixed income trading corner (16 months)

Currently open trades (16 months) 9 April 2013


Trade Rec. ISIN no. Security no. Security description Issuer Rating S&P / Moodys / Fitch*
NR / Baa1 / BBB NR / Baa1 / BBB

Min. Duradenom. tion ('000)


5/5 5/5 5/5

S/L Open date

YTM/ YTC

Price** Open

BM spread (bp)***

Curr. Open Curr. Target

Total return ****


0.67% 0.09%

CHF BUY CH0190653870 19065387 BUY CH0193724280 19372428 BUY CH0195512519 19551251 EUR BUY DE000A0D1KX0 UBS 4.28% 04/15/2015 2120036 UBS AG JERSEY BRANCH BUY IT0004576978 11056087 BUY XS0260057285 002618914 BUY XS0872702112 20383727 ENELIM 3.5% 2/26/2016 ENEL SPA AXASA 5.777% 7/6/2016 AXA SA BBVASM 3.75% 1/17/2018 BBVA SENIOR FINANCE SA BBB- / Ba2 / BB+ BBB+ / Baa2 / BBB+ BBB- / Baa1 / BBB BBB- / Baa3 / BBB+ NR / Ba1e / BBB1/1 1/1 50 / 1 100 / 100 1/1 50 / 50 1.8 98.0 7.01.2013 7.01.2013 11.03.2013 7.01.2013 18.02.2013 4.02.2013 4.07 97.75 99.85 527 233 554 317 329 391 400 211 527 324 315 319 400 170 525 250 250 300 3.14% 1.22% 0.91% 1.04% 2.42% 5.44% RSHB 3.125% 8/17/2015 OJSC RUSS AGRIC BK (RSHB) VTB 3.15% 12/16/2016 VTB BANK (VTB CAPITAL SA) 2.2 100.0 3.4 100.0 7.6 100.0 7.01.2013 7.01.2013 7.01.2013 2.24 101.95 101.85 2.64 101.70 101.00 4.07 102.50 100.85 253 275 344 225 268 346 200 200

UCGIM 4.25% 10/19/2022 NR / Baa2 / NR UNICRED BANK IRELAND PLC

300 -0.56%

2.7 101.0 2.8 4.3 98.0 98.5

2.26 102.97 103.40 5.46 100.10 99.50

3.58 100.13 100.33 3.54 100.20 102.16 3.63 124.50 129.65

BUY DE000A1R08U3 TKAGR 4% 8/27/2018 20749018 THYSSENKRUPP AG BUY XS0686703736 13994137 USD BUY ARARGE03F144 ARGBOD 7% 10/3/2015 2335938 REPUBLIC OF ARGENTINA BUY XS0813929782 20144910 SOCGEN 6.625% 6/11/2018 SOCIETE GENERALE

4.8 100.0 4.4 126.0

HEIGR 9.5% 12/15/2018 NR / Ba2 / HEIDELBERGCEMENT FIN LUX BB+ NR / NR / BBBB / NR / BBB-

0.001 / 0.001 200 / 1

2.2 4.3

86.0 99.0

18.02.2013 4.03.2013

12.51

88.90

88.75

1306 558

1204 535

1100 500

3.77% 2.04%

6.11 100.75 102.21

*) e stands for expected rating while p stands for provisional rating, both are subject to receipt of final documentation; u stands for unsolicited rating. **) Prices are indicative only and subject to normal market volatility. Current Price is stop loss closing price for bonds whose SL is triggered. ***) G-spreads refer to the yield spread of the relevant government benchmark bond. ****) Calculated since open date. +) S/L triggered during the week. Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Emerging market debts update


Recent news and commentaries Fitch lowers Chinas local currency debt rating On 9 April, Fitch lowered Chinas local currency debt rating by one notch to A+ from AA - with a stable outlook. Fitchs local currency rating on China is now one notch below that assigned by S&P and Moodys. For Ministry of Finance (MoF)-issued dim sum bonds, the Fitch rating will now be capped at A+, lowered from AA-. Fitchs foreign currency rating for Chinas external debt remains A+, which is also lower than the ratings assigned by Moodys (Aa3) and S&P (AA -). According to Fitch, the rating action was driven by its concerns about a buildup in bank credit to the private sector, which reached 135.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP) at end-2012. Including various forms of shadow banking activities, Fitch said that the ratio would be even higher. Moodys placed the senior and subordinated notes issued by several Russian banks, including Sberbank, VTB, Russian Agricultural Bank (RSHB) and Alfa Bank (subordinated only), on review for a possible downgrade on 2 April. According to the rating agency, the action was driven by its concerns that the Russian governments capacity and willingness to provide systemic support to large banks in times of systemic stress could potentially be lower than previously anticipated by the rating agency. Moodys is concerned that lower oil prices could impair the Russian states ability to support its banking system, and the implementation of a privatization plan may lead to a somewhat higher likelihood of the inclusion of market solutions regarding the provision of support for large troubled banks in the event of need. Our view is that during the 20082009 financial crisis, the states willingness to support sy stemic banks was never in doubt. Moreover, privatization is a gradual process which is not going to be completed in the near term, and some caution is warranted. Market participants have noted Moodys tendency to overrate Russian banks in contrast to the o ther two rating agencies. We note that Moodys rating on Sberbank is two notches above the BBB rating assigned by Fitch, while the Baa1 rating of VTB and RSHB is one notch above Fitchs (BBB). We believe the rating actions by Moodys on 2 April might have some impact on the market if they are coupled with weak market sentiment, but they should not trigger a selloff in bonds issued by these banks. In the medium term, we still believe the three state-controlled banks will continue to receive state support. Sberbank was the first top Russian bank to announce its 2012 results. S&P has placed its BB rating on Vedanta Resources PLC on CreditWatch with negative implications, as it believes the company has made slower-than-expected progress in funding its upcoming debt maturities. However, S&P also said that it understood that Vedanta has tied up the majority of the funds for its USD 809 million debt maturing on 29 April and was in the process of securing funding for USD 1.35 billion due in June 2013. It also said that it expected Vedanta to eventually garner funding for the debt maturities. S&Ps action follows that of Moodys which placed Vedantas Ba3 rating on review for a possible downgrade (see Research Daily dated 27 March 2013). Vedantas upcoming refinancing is not new information and we believe the rating agencies are taking a conservative view on the rating. We have a BUY recommendation on Vedantas 5.5% 2016 convertible bond, given its reasonably attractive yield. Bank of Ceylon is 100%-owned by the government of Sri Lanka and is rated B1 and BB- by Moodys and Fitch respectively. It is the largest commercial bank in t he country with assets of USD 8.5 bn as at end-2012. The bank has good asset quality as evidenced by its low non-performing loans ratio of 2.8% as of year-end 2012, compared with 2.20% as of December 2011. With healthy profitability ratios with a net interest margin of 3.8% in 2012, the bank reported net income of USD 115 m on operating income of USD 419 m. Its capitalization is satisfactory with Tier 1 ratio of 8.9% and total capitalization ratio 12.4% in December 2012. The key risk to the credit stems from its link to the Sri Lanka sovereign and the countrys dependence on international funding. We view this bond attractive for carry. Wing-son Cheng, wing-son.cheng@credit-suisse.com Daniel Tam, daniel.tam@credit-suisse.com Neel Gopalakrishnan, neel.gopalakrishnan@credit-suisse.com

Moodys reviews the ratings of the senior and subordinated notes of Sberbank, VTB, RSHB and Alfa Bank

S&P is concerned about Vedantas refinancing of its upcoming debt maturities

BUY Bank of Ceylon 5.325% 04/16/2018 ISIN: XS0914798268

10

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Classic recommendations
Current CLASSIC portfolio recommendations 9 April 2013
Trade ISIN no. Security no. Curr. Security description Issuer Rating S&P/Moodys/ Fitch*** Coupon Min. denomination / increment (thousands)
2.500% 3.000% 2.065% 3.375% 2.125% 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5

Vol. (m)

Duration

Price YTM / BMask** YTC spread (bp)*

Total return ****

CHF CH0181738904 18173890 CH0148560995 14856099 CH0204477274 20447727 CH0197482711 19748271 CH0204574914 20457491 EUR XS0901738392 20881289 XS0838847381 4991768 XS0866278921 20248792 XS0863482336 20189830 XS0905797113 20936583 XS0901370691 20881331 XS0872705057 20381543 XS0873432511 20444777 GBP XS0872706881 20380762 XS0853680527 19985125 XS0856595961 20035318 USD USF42768GN96 19736378 US06051GET22 20423876 US46115HAJ68 20413078 US34540UAA79 20423854 DE000A1HGXL7 20855060 US377372AH03 20956705 USD USD USD USD USD USD GSZFP 1.625% 10/10/2017 GDF SUEZ BAC 2% 1/11/2018 BANK OF AMERICA CORP ISPIM 3.875% 1/16/2018 INTESA SANPAOLO SPA F 2.375% 1/16/2018 FORD MOTOR CREDIT CO LLC SIEGR 1.5% 3/12/2018 SIEMENS FINANCIERINGSMAT GSK 2.8% 3/18/2023 GLAXOSMITHKLINE CAP INC A / A1 / NR A- / Baa2 / A BBB+ / Baa2 / BBB+ BB+ / Baa3 / BBBNR / Aa3 / A+ A+ / A1 / NR 1.625% 2.000% 3.875% 2.375% 1.500% 2.800% 2/1 2/1 200 / 1 200 / 1 2/2 2/1 750 2'000 1'500 1'250 500 1'250 4.3 101.20 4.5 101.22 4.3 96.98 1.35% 1.73% 4.59% 2.36% 1.33% 2.52% 73 106 378 170 65 77 0.51% 0.79% -1.42% 0.92% 1.67% 2.65% GBP GBP GBP EIB 1.375% 1/15/2018 AAA / Aaa / AAA EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK NDASS 2.125% 11/13/2019 AA- / Aa3 / AANORDEA BANK AB BNP 2.375% 11/20/2019 A+ / A2 / A+ BNP PARIBAS 1.375% 2.125% 2.375% 0.1 / 0.1 100 / 1 1/1 1'750 500 300 4.6 102.09 6.1 101.15 6.1 101.04 0.92% 1.94% 2.20% 28 89 114 1.77% 1.16% 0.94% EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR BBVASM 3.25% 3/21/2016 BBVA SENIOR FINANCE SA F 2.875% 10/3/2017 FCE BANK PLC CAFP 1.875% 12/19/2017 CARREFOUR SA UCGIM 3.375% 1/11/2018 UNICREDIT SPA RENAUL 2.875% 1/22/2018 RCI BANQUE SA MS 2.25% 3/12/2018 MORGAN STANLEY BNP 1.5% 3/12/2018 BNP PARIBAS FREGR 2.875% 7/15/2020 FRESENIUS FINANCE BV BBB- / Baa3 / BBB+ NR / Baa3 / BBBBBB / NR / BBB BBB+ / Baa2 / BBB+ NR / Baa3e / NR A- / Baa1e / A A+ / A2 / A+ BB+ / Ba1 / NR 3.250% 2.875% 1.875% 3.375% 2.875% 2.250% 1.500% 2.875% 100 / 100 100 / 1 100 / 1 100 / 1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1'500 500 1'000 750 600 1'250 1'000 500 2.8 100.61 4.1 105.03 4.4 101.83 4.3 99.31 3.03% 1.70% 1.47% 3.53% 2.61% 2.14% 1.56% 2.82% 292 145 118 317 231 178 119 212 0.01% 5.32% 2.64% -1.38% 0.48% 0.17% 0.66% 0.71% CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF RENAUL 2.5% 7/16/2015 RCI BANQUE SA IBESM 3% 2/13/2017 IBERDROLA INTL BV SBERRU 2.065% 2/28/2017 SBERBANK (SB CAP SA) UCGIM 3.375% 10/25/2017 UNICRED BANK IRELAND PLC GASSM 2.125% 2/8/2019 GAS NATURAL FENOSA FIN B BBB / Baa3 / NR BBB / Baa1 / BBB+ NR / A3 / BBB NR / Baa2e / NR BBB / Baa2 / BBB+ 200 250 250 185 250 2.2 102.09 3.6 104.21 3.7 100.33 4.1 101.42 5.4 100.15 1.55% 1.85% 1.98% 3.03% 2.10% 169 188 199 303 192 4.08% 0.16% -1.82% -0.96% -0.19%

4.4 101.17 4.6 100.53 4.7 99.71

6.4 100.33

4.5 100.06 4.7 100.83 8.6 102.41

*) e stands for expected rating while p stands for provisional rating, both are subject to receipt of final documentation; u stands for unsolicited rating. **) Prices are indicative only and subject to normal market volatility. ***) BM stands for benchmark. BM spreads refer to the yield spread of the relevant government benchmark bond. ****) Calculated since added to the portfolio. n.a. = not available. Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

11

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Global equity strategy

US earnings season commences Alcoa kicked off the US earnings season with decent headline earnings, although its revenue figures disappointed. This may set the tone for the rest of the quarter as companies try to squeeze costs against a background of muted headline growth. Compared to this time last year, earnings are expected to grow by less than 1%, with cyclicals weaker and financials, telecoms and staples stronger on a relative sector basis. In recent months, corporate outlook updates have tended to err on the negative side (by a factor of 3 to 1 according to Bloomberg), with FedEx being a case in point. The latest significant reports were JPMorgan and Wells Fargo last Friday. In both cases, earnings growth was impressively higher compared with the same time last year, though revenue growth fell short of expectations. Globally, earnings momentum is still negative, though pointing up, led by Japan. The US and Switzerland are the next best regions, with the Eurozone being the weakest of the large regions in terms of earnings revisions. Market performance has tended to follow earnings momentum trends and, of course, central bank policy. There is a marked difference in performance between regions where monetary and/or fiscal policy is becoming less accommodative, either by accident or design, and where weak earnings momentum is weak. Europe and parts of the EM complex stand out in this respect. Conversely, regions with positive earnings momentum and very easy monetary policy continue to do well and, here again, Japan and the US are the leading regions. Michael O'Sullivan, michael.o'sullivan@credit-suisse.com

12

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Asia investment summary


Global research asset category strategy
Strategic 612+ M
Fixed income Equities Commodities Real estate Private equity Hedge funds Foreign exchange Economics Global data is softening as we expected but we see this as temporary,with a re-acceleration later as monetary expansion by BoJ and others, plus better US investment and housing, offset fiscal headwinds. 1 = Investment Committee Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

IC1 view
Tactical 16M

Overview
Overall we stay neutral, but following a small rise in yields for highyield and hard currency EM, we now favor these bond classes. We stay positive, as valuations stay undemanding despite downward revisions to earnings, and easy money supports investor inflows. We downgrade tactically to neutral as demand suffers from the temporary growth slowdown. Equities: Valuations richer, but some upside strategically. Direct real estate: Attractive rental carry. We favor small/mid-sized LBOs, emerging markets and private debt funds. We overweight directional strategies, such as Ems and long-short. We maintain our positive stance for global macro. Technicals favor a mild upward bias to EUR/USD. Decisive BoJ action suggests JPY is vulnerable to further weakness.

CSPB macroeconomic forecasts


Major economies US Eurozone Japan Australia Asia Pacific China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Non-Japan Asia Asia Pacific
^FY ending March Source: Credit Suisse

GDP growth 2013E 2.0 -0.3 1.4 2.4 GDP growth 2013E 8.1 3.1 6.0 6.3 5.2 6.0 2.2 2.7 3.3 5.0 6.5 5.6 2014E 7.8 3.6 7.0 5.9 5.1 5.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 5.0 6.7 5.8 2014E 2.5 1.1 1.2 2.4

Average CPI 2013E 1.6 1.8 -0.4 2.7 Average CPI 2013E 3.2 4.0 7.2 5.6 2.7 4.0 3.4 2.3 2.0 3.8 4.0 3.3 2014E 3.3 3.9 7.2 5.4 2.4 4.2 2.6 3.0 2.0 4.0 4.1 3.7 Current 6.00 7.50 5.75 3.00 3.50 2.75 1.88 2.75 2014E 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.6 Current 0.0-0.25 0.75 0.10 3.00

Policy rates 3M 0.0-0.25 0.75 0.0-0.1 2.75 Policy rates 3M 6.00 7.50 5.75 3.00 3.50 2.75 1.88 2.75 12M 6.00 7.25 6.00 3.00 3.75 2.75 1.88 3.00 12M 0.0-0.25 0.75 0.0-0.1 2.75

Global foreign exchange rate


Major foreign exchange rate EUR/USD USD/CHF EUR/CHF USD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP GBP/USD EUR/SEK EUR/NOK AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

Spot (11 Apr 13) 1.31 0.93 1.22 99.67 130.62 0.85 1.54 8.32 7.48 1.05 0.86 1.01

3M 1.35 0.93 1.25 102.00 138.00 0.92 1.46 8.20 7.60 1.00 0.80 1.05

12M 1.35 0.95 1.28 105.00 142.00 0.93 1.45 8.00 7.60 0.98 0.80 1.02

Asian foreign exchange rates USD/SGD USD/THB USD/IDR USD/PHP USD/TWD USD/KRW USD/INR USD/HKD USD/CNY USD/MYR

Spot (11 Apr 13) 1.24 29.04 9,703 40.98 29.95 1129.9 54.52 7.76 6.20 3.04

3M 1.26 29.00 9950.0 40.50 29.00 1115.0 53.50 7.75 6.15 3.09

12M 1.22 29.50 10100.0 40.00 28.30 1050.0 53.00 7.75 6.00 3.00

The Research Monthly Foreign Exchange publication contains a more comprehensive list of our currency forecasts.

13

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Asia investment summary (continued)


Global indices targets
Global indices S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 DAX CAC 40 FTSE-100 SMI Weighting Overweight Neutral Overweight Neutral Neutral Underweight Closing as of 11 Apr 13 1,593.4 2,674.3 7,871.6 3,775.7 6,416.1 7,815.3 12M target 1,518 2,654 7,773 3,693 6,317 7,325 Asian indices Hang Seng HSCEI SHCOMP STI KLCI SET JCI Nikkei 225 ASX 200 TWSE KOSPI SENSEX PCOMP Weighting Overweight Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Overweight Underweight Overweight Underweight Neutral Underweight Overweight Neutral Closing as of 11 Apr 13 22,101 10,708 2,220 3,309 1,707 1,517 4,924 13,549 5,007 7,858 1,950 18,542 6832 12M target 25,000 13,000 2,500 3,500 1,800 1,650 5,400 14,500 5,100 8,200 2,150 22,000 7,400

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Technical outlook of Asian stock markets


Country Japan Japan Hong Kong China China China Singapore S. Korea Taiwan India Australia Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Stock markets TOPIX NIKKEI 225 Hang Seng HSCEI SSE A SHARE SHCOMP STI KOSPI TWSE SENSEX ASX 200 KLCI SET JCI PSEi 11 Apr 13 1,147.29 13,549.16 22,101.27 10,708.25 2,323.10 2,219.55 3,308.80 1,949.80 7,857.98 18,542.20 5,007.07 1,707.04 1,516.81 4,924.26 6,831.74 Long term Short term Comment Sharply higher with 1,200 now attracting. Accelerating higher with 14,000 now attracting. Bouncing from 21,600, but immediate gains limited in range as momentum points lower. Reached 10,400 with tactical stabilization seen. Risk of further losses. Bouncing from ~2,280, but upside scope seen as limited as momentum continues to point lower. Reached 2,180 with a tactical stabilization seen. Downside risks are still in force. Consolidating beneath 3,330. Further ranging before a clear break is seen. Bouncing from 1,900, but gains capped in consolidation. Sharp bounce from 7,715, but 8,000 should remain a barrier. Consolidation should develop. Still lower with 18,000 in view. Risk of further losses as momentum continues to deteriorate. Finding support at 4,900. Corrective bounce seen as limited in range. Pushing above 1,700. Momentum is strong, but overbought areas are approaching. Choppy in range, but downside risks are increasing. ST downgrade below 1,450. Settling back from below 5,000 in tactical profit-taking. Consolidation should turn higher. Balanced beneath 7,000. Consolidation before higher.

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Trading recommendations 13 months


Company Greater China CNOOC Ticker Rec. Open date Open Last price price 11 Apr 13 15.10 14.26 Perf. Target price 18.00 Stop- Status loss 12.50 open Next reporting date 21 Aug 2013 (Est) Rationale

883 HK

BUY

28 Mar 2013

-5.6%

Benefits from a potential increase in crude oil prices due to its unique position as a pure upstream oil company. Defensive replacement tire business with attractive exposure to specialty tires to improve margin. Solid growth in overseas commercial banking business and JGB trading. Turnaround in NAND flash memory prices expected to reverse earnings momentum. Attractive valuation in light of EPS growth potential. Attractive medium-term catalysts ahead. Growth supported by AEIs and acquisition pipeline. Positioned to capture growing demand as new capacity comes on stream.

Japan Bridgestone Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Toshiba Toyota Motor North America / Europe Diageo Southeast Asia Far East Hospitality Trust Semen Gresik

5108 JP 8306 JP 6502 JP 7203 JP

BUY BUY BUY BUY

11 Apr 2013 11 Apr 2013 11 Apr 2013 11 Apr 2013

3,490 692 518 5,330

3,685 672 534 5,640

5.6% -2.9% 3.1% 5.8%

3,700 730 550 5,250

2,130 460 300 3,650

open open open open

8 May 2013 15 May 2013 8 May 2013 8 May 2013

DGE LN

BUY

30 Oct 2012

1,780

2,001.50 13.5%

2,100

1,600

open

31 Jul 2013

FEHT SP SMGR IJ

BUY BUY

23 Jan 2013 4 Apr 2013

1.02 18,250

1.14 11.8% 17,850 -2.2%

1.20

0.90

open open

15 May 2013 (Est) 6 May 2013 (Est)

20,000 15,000

Note: (1) "Open price" will be the closing price on the "Open date". *EST = the estimated next reporting date from Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

(2) Performance includes dividend cash payment. *Please note that trading facilities for these securities may be limited.

14

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Asia investment summary (continued)


APAC long-term top picks list 612+ months
Company Australia BHP Billiton Limited Greater China China Construction Bank H CNOOC Ticker Rec. Open date Open Last price price 11 Apr 13 31.05 33.40 Perf. Target price 42.00 Stop- Status Next reporting loss date 30.00 open 20 Aug 2013 Rationale

BHP AU

BUY 5 Sep 2012

11.2%

Leading mining giant offers quality and diversification.

939 HK 883 HK

BUY 9 Feb 2011 BUY 18 Oct 2012

6.39 15.98

6.20 14.26

0.4% -10.8%

7.55 18.00

Henderson Land Lenovo Tencent Holdings India HDFC Bank*

12 HK 992 HK 700 HK

BUY 23 Aug 2012 BUY 13 Sep 2012 BUY 4 Apr 2013

49.05 6.19 242.80

54.35 7.09 250.40

11.5% 15.3% 3.1%

68.00 9.20 298.00

5.00 open 29 Apr 2013 (Est) Valuation is supported by strong profitability. 12.50 open 21 Aug 2013 (Est) Benefits from a potential increase in crude oil prices due to its unique position as a pure upstream oil company. 45.00 open 22 Aug 2013 (Est) Project launches in H2 2012 generate sizable development profit. 5.00 closed 23 May 2013 (Est) Earnings growth story remains intact, driven by solid PC demand in China. 230.00 open 15 May 2013 WeChat monetization expected to be a game changer. 600.00 open 23 Apr 2013 Aggressive branch expansion should help maintain above-industry growth trajectory. 250.00 open 24 May 2013 (Est) Recovery in cigarettes and reducing FMCG losses help improve the outlook. 4,000 open 13 May 2013 2,130 open 8 May 2013 Recent pipeline delivery increases visibility on future sales growth. Defensive replacement tire business with attractive exposure to specialty tires to improve margin. New models and weak JPY should support Honda's volume growth. Solid growth in overseas commercial banking business and JGB trading. Low credit costs and overseas loan growth pave the way for a steady recovery. Well positioned to benefit from Japan's demographic trends. Growth is well supported by data demand, strong balance sheet. Improving business outlook on JPY weakness. No credit risks observed, with Asia expected to drive revenue growth. Turnaround in NAND flash memory prices expected to reverse earnings momentum. Attractive valuation in light of EPS growth potential. Strong Galaxy S3 shipments imply robust earnings momentum.

HDFCB IN

BUY 24 Jan 2013

660.30

639.25

-3.2%

735.00

ITC Ltd* Japan Astellas Pharma Bridgestone

ITC IN

BUY 31 Jan 2013

300.75

285.30

-5.1%

325.00

4503 JP 5108 JP

BUY 22 Nov 2012 BUY 15 Nov 2012

4,075 1,807

5,570.00

38.3%

5,350 3,700

3,685.00 103.9%

Honda Motor Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Mizuho Financial Group Seven & I Softbank Sony

7267 JP 8306 JP 8411 JP 3382 JP 9984 JP 6758 JP

BUY 7 Mar 2013 BUY 2 Jan 2013 BUY 9 Jan 2013 BUY 11 Apr 2013 BUY 7 Nov 2012 BUY 7 Mar 2013 BUY 22 Feb 2012 BUY 15 Nov 2012

3,565 461 163 3,605 2,772 1,451 2,698 273

3,945.00 672.00 219.00 3,785.00 4,765.00 1,685.00 4,695.00 534.00

11.2% 47.1% 36.2% 5.0% 74.4% 16.1% 77.7% 97.1%

3,950 730 220 3,900 4,700 1,650 5,400 550

3,000 open 26 April 2013 460 open 15 May 2013 140 open 15 May 2013 1,800 open 4 Jul 2013 (Est) 2,000 open 30 Apr 2013 800 closed 9 May 2013 3,250 open 15 May 2013 300 open 8 May 2013

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial 8316 JP Group Toshiba 6502 JP

Toyota Motor South Korea Samsung Electronics Southeast Asia Asian Property Development Bank Mandiri

7203 JP

BUY 11 Jul 2012

3,080

5,640.00

83.1%

5,250

3,650 open 8 May 2013

005930 KS

BUY 13 Sep 2012 1,301,000 1,540,000

18.4% 1,800,000 1,300,000 open 5 Jul 2013 (Est)

AP TB

BUY 28 Sep 2012

9.05

8.75

-3.3%

12.00

BMRI IJ

BUY 13 Sep 2012

7,700 10,200.00

32.5%

11,000

DBS Gamuda Kasikornbank

DBS SP GAM MK KBANK TB

BUY 7 Nov 2012 BUY 18 Jul 2012 BUY 19 Jul 2012

14.06 3.56 165.50

15.65 4.15 203.00

11.3% 18.3% 24.3%

16.20 4.50 224.00

Keppel Corp

KEP SP

BUY 24 May 2012

9.99

11.40

15.9%

12.90

9.00 open 14 May 2013 (Est) Housing demand expected to remain robust owing to structural trend of rural migration. 8,000 open 26 Apr 2013 (Est) Consumer and micro loan growth, a stable NIM and low provisions drive earnings. 12.70 open 2 May 2013 Q3 earnings beat expectations on lower provisions, higher fee income. 3.70 open 27 Jun 2013 (Est) Strong start to FY 2013 on broadbased earnings growth. 160.00 open 18 Apr 2013 (Est) Strengthening investment cycle and a recovery in domestic consumption support credit growth. 9.70 open 18 Apr 2013 Benefits from the constructive outlook for the rig-building cycle.

Note: (1) "Open price" will be the closing price on the "Open date". *Est = the estimated next reporting date from Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

(2) Performance includes dividend cash payment. *Please note that trading facilities for these securities may be limited.

15

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

Asia investment summary (continued)


CS Top 30 portfolio
Company Asia Pacific National Australia Bank Tencent North America Caterpillar Inc Chevron Coca-Cola Deere EMC General Electric Co CAT US CVX US KO US DE US EMC US GE US BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 28 Jun 2011 7 Feb 2011 13 Dec 2010 15 Sep 2011 11 Jul 2012 29 Apr 2011 103.84 97.66 64.85 78.64 23.55 20.45 85.70 120.95 41.18 87.58 22.89 23.59 -13.8% 31.5% -30.8% 14.2% -2.8% 20.2% 110.0 135.0 42.0 105.0 28.0 27.0 70.0 open 22 Apr 2013 100.0 open 26 Apr 2013 30.0 open 16 Apr 2013 70.0 open 15 May 2013 19.5 open 24 Apr 2013 20.0 open 19 Apr 2013 Significant strength to leverage operating performance. Chevron has financial strength and holds an impressive project portfolio. Leading global brand company with strong growth potential in emerging markets. A beneficiary of higher demand for agricultural machinery. EMC remains on a solid growth path, despite the tough economic environment. Underestimated earnings contribution from GE Capital; industrial business likely to further recover from slowdown. Mobile advertising and YouTube monetization are long-term growth drivers. Capital strength is a differentiating factor for better-positioned banks. Taking advantage of long-term growth in the payments industry. Solid execution leaves room for multiple expansions. Market-leading database franchise with impressive cross-selling capabilities. Solid cash flow generation supports dividend payout. Robust earnings growth in combination with high cash returns for shareholders. Accelerating product pricing supports margin development. Set to benefit from growing worldwide drilling activity. A perfect brewing growth story. Strong growth profile supported by Firebag expansion. The world's second largest sporting goods company with a strong position in emerging markets. Attractive valuation despite peripheral euro exposure. Volume growth supported by new models and premium car exposure. Growth strategy focuses on small acquisitions. Well-capitalized bank with a diversified international set-up. The group is well positioned for years to come. Benefits from a unique portfolio of oncology drugs and a better-than-average patent expiration profile. A diversified energy company with highquality upstream and downstream assets plus an attractive dividend yield. Solid earnings growth should drive valuation. Resilient free cash flows, despite structural and cyclical challenges. NAB AU 700 HK HOLD 23 Aug 2012 BUY 28 Mar 2011 25.31 192.50 31.60 250.40 28.4% 30.8% 30.0 298.0 20.0 open 9 May 2013 230.0 open 15 May 2013 Offers an attractive fully franked yield with a sustainable payout ratio. WeChat monetization expected to be a game changer. Ticker Rec. Open date Open price Last price 11 Apr 13 Perf. Target price Stop- Status Next reporting loss date Rationale

Google JPMorgan Chase & Co MasterCard Merck & Co Oracle Pfizer Philip Morris International Procter & Gamble Schlumberger Starbucks Suncor Energy Europe Adidas

GOOG US JPM US MA US MRK US ORCL US PFE US PM US PG US SLB US SBUX US SU CN

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

7 Mar 2012 6 May 2010 23 Aug 2012 7 Mar 2012 2 Jan 2013

606.80 40.81 418.33 37.31 34.69 18.24 68.29 61.00 74.59 47.90 33.41

790.39 49.31 541.24 47.21 33.62 30.64 95.60 79.67 77.14 58.58 29.25

30.3% 24.4% 29.6% 29.9% -3.1% 70.5% 45.7% 36.0% 5.3% 22.3% -12.1%

800.0 55.0 575.0 50.0 38.0 29.0 99.0 81.0 95.0 62.0 45.0

550.0 open 18 Apr 2013 40.0 open 12 Apr 2013 400.0 open 1 May 2013 35.0 open 1 May 2013 30.0 open 18 Jun 2013 (Est) 23.5 open 30 Apr 2013 80.0 open 18 Apr 2013 48.0 open 24 Apr 2013 65.0 open 19 Apr 2013 50.0 open 25 Apr 2013 25.0 open 30 Apr 2013

HOLD 21 Jan 2011 BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 15 Sep 2011 25 Nov 2011 24 Jan 2012 23 Aug 2012 2 Jan 2013

ADS GR

HOLD 15 Sep 2011

49.33

79.05

62.3%

74.0

42.0 open 3 May 2013

Allianz BMW Centrica PLC HSBC Rio Tinto Roche (Genussscheine)

ALV GY BMW GY CNA LN HSBA LN RIO LN ROG VX

BUY BUY

2 Jan 2013 2 Jan 2013

108.30 75.93 307.60 600.10 3433.50 173.20

108.00 69.03 376.40 692.00 3,140.00 226.40

-0.3% -9.1% 26.0% 21.1%

115.0 85.0 340.0 750.0

75.0 open 15 May 2013 70.0 open 2 May 2013 270.0 open 31 Jul 2013 500.0 open 8 May 2013 (Est)

HOLD 7 Mar 2012 HOLD 2 Jul 2010 BUY BUY 3 Aug 2010 23 Aug 2012

-3.8% 4700.0 2800.0 open 8 Aug 2013 35.0% 225.0 185.0 open 25 Jul 2013

Royal Dutch Shell-A

RDSA NA

BUY

21 Jan 2011

25.27

24.91

3.7%

32.0

23.0 open 2 May 2013

Sberbank Vodafone

SBER RU VOD LN

HOLD 2 Jan 2013 BUY 25 Nov 2011

3.07 166.35

3.24 189.80

5.6% 20.0%

3.7 198.0

2.0 open 30 May 2013 (Est) 148.0 open 21 May 2013

Note: (1) "Open price" will be the closing price on the "Open date". (2) Performance includes dividend cash payment. *Please note that trading facilities for these securities may be limited. *Est = the estimated next reporting date from Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

16

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Global equity sector strategy and top picks list Sector (weight strategic) Industry (weight strategic) Europe (N) UK (N) Switzerland (U) USA (O) Latin America (U) Emerging Europe/Africa (N)
Lonza Holcim Anadarko Petroleum, Schlumberger Novatek*, Ultrapar Adr*, Pacific Rubiales Energy Mexichem* -

Asia ex Japan (N) Japan (N) Australia (U)


CNOOC BHP Billiton Limited Keppel Corp, Gamuda*

Energy (N) Materials (N)

Energy (N) Chemicals (N) Construction Materials (N) Metals & Mining (N) Pulp & Paper (N)

Royal Dutch Shell BHP Billiton Schneider Electric, Siemens

Industrials (O)

Capital Goods (O)

Consumer discretionary (N)

Commercial Services & Supplies (N) Transportation, incl. Logistics (N) Automobiles & Components (O) Consumer Durables & Apparel, Textiles, Apparel & Luxury (N) Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure (N) Media (N) Retailing (U) Food & Staples Retailing (N) Beverages (U) Food Products (U) Tobacco (U) SAB Miller, Diageo Unilever -

ABB, Schindler PC, General Electric, Georg Fischer Honeywell International, Masco Corp Nestl, Lindt & Spruengli PC Tecan McDonald's Time Warner Home Depot Coca-Cola Procter & Gamble Baxter International Gilead Sciences Abbvie Inc. AmBev* Brasil Foods* -

Toyota Motor, Bridgestone, Honda Motor Seven & I ITC Ltd* Astellas Pharma

Consumer staples (U)

Household & Personal Products Reckitt Benckiser (N) Healthcare (N) Healthcare Equipment & Fresenius SE Services (N) Biotechnology (N) Pharmaceuticals (N)

Financials (N)

Banks (N)

Hikma Pharmaceuticals Roche (Genussscheine), Novartis BNP Paribas -

Sberbank*, ITAU Unibanco Adr

Diversified Financials (N) Insurance (O) Real Estate (N))

Allianz, AXA Mail.Ru Group* Vodafone -

Zurich Insurance Group, Swiss Re -

JPMorgan Chase & Co, Invesco Ltd. Mastercard Intel MTN Group Limited* -

China Construction Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Kasikornbank*, Bank Mandiri*, DBS, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, HDFC Bank Henderson Land, Asian Property Development* Tencent Holdings* Toshiba Samsung Electronics* SoftBank -

IT (O)

Software & Services (O) Technology Hardware & Equipment (O) Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (O) Diversified Telecoms (U) Wireless Telecoms (U) Utilities (U)

Telecom services (U) Utilities (U)

Source: Credit Suisse Legend to weights: O: Overweight, N: Neutral, U: Underweight * = Emerging Markets focus list This is our sector strategy and focus list as of 11 April 2013 recommended by Credit Suisse, Private Banking division. Our sector strategy shows our sector preferences with recommendations relative to regional benchmarks: Global: (MSCI World in USD), Europe (MSCI Europe in EUR), Switzerland (Swiss Market Index in CHF), USA (S&P 500 in USD), Asia/Pacific (MSCI AC Asia/Pacific in USD). An overweight (underweight) is a recommendation to invest more (less) than in a neutral position indicated by the market-cap weights of the respective benchmarks. The sector weights as well as the neutral positions in figures are available upon request; please contact your relationship manager. The Focus List is a selection of our favorite stocks within our coverage. The selection was made to reflect the sector and regional preferences. Updates are provided via our Research Monthly and Research Weekly publications as well as in our Equity Research reports. Additionally, we publish our adds and drops in our Research Equity Daily. The changes are highlighted in bold. For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: http://www.credit-suisse.com/research/disclaimer Please note that trading facilities in certain securities may be limited.

17

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Key to technical charts used in this report


1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800

11 & 40-day m oving average

1140 1130 1120 1110 1100 1090 1080

1 1 -w e e k m o vin g a ve ra g e M e d iu m -te rm m o m e n tu m

4 0 -w e e k m o vin g a ve ra g e

750 3000 2000 1000 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 2005

Short- and m edium - term m om entum

1070 1060 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 S ep O ct N ov

L o n g -te rm m o m e n tu m
2002 2003 2004

Jul

A ug

Source: Metastock, Reuters

Moving averages are popular and versatile for identifying price trends. They smooth out fluctuations in market prices, thereby making it easier to determine underlying trends. Their other function is to signal significant changes in direction as early as possible. Generally, if the market were in an uptrend or downtrend, a longer time period would be used. If it is consolidating, the shorter time frame would catch the minor moves more easily. Moving averages are lagging indicators and give signals after the price trend has already turned. Momentum indicators lead the price trend. They give signals before the price trend turns. Once momentum provides a signal, it has to be confirmed by a moving-average crossover. For a short introduction to technical analysis, we refer readers to TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EXPLAINED at http://www.credit-suisse.com/techresearch Please note that due to local regulatory requirements access to these web links may be restricted for clients in certain countries.

Stop loss rules: Stop losses are based on the 3-month historical volatility. If 2 x weekly standard deviation is <= 5% of the stock price at inception, then a stop loss would be set at 5%. If 2x standard deviation is >= 5% of the stock price since inception, then a stop loss would be set at 2 times standard deviations. At the start of a trade, the stop loss is applied per recommendation, i.e. for the whole group of stocks comprised in the same recommendation. Once the whole trade turns positive and the stop loss moves to positive territory, we apply a new stop loss on an individual basis, i.e. per stock and not per recommendation. For long/short positions, please note that as of 20.09.05, the stop loss applies to the performance spread between long and positions and would be expressed in percentage terms. Weighting: All recommendations would have a full weight with the following exceptions: 1) A single stock recommendation would have systematically a weight of 0.5 if the stop loss at inception is at - 5%; 2) A single stock recommendation would have systematically a weight of 0.25 if the stop loss at inception is < -5%; 3) A group of stocks (i.e., a recommendation comprising more than one stock), where all stop losses at inception are < -5% would systematically have a weight of 0.5.

18

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Imprint
Publisher
Fan Cheuk Wan Head of Research Asia Pacific Head of Research Asia Pacific Head of Strategy and Economic Research Asia Pacific Head of Fixed Income Research Asia Pacific Head of Southeast Asia Equity Research Head of Greater China Equity Research Senior FX Strategist Asia Pacific Emerging Market Bonds Analyst Emerging Market Bonds Analyst Head of Japan Research Head of Strategy and Research Australia Asian Economist Asian Technical Analyst Southeast Asia Equity Analyst Southeast Asia Equity Analyst China Equity Analyst China Equity Analyst Greater China and Korea Equity Analyst Marketing Analyst Asia Pacific Commodity Analyst Head of Portfolio Strategy & Thematic Research Head of Team for Consumer Staples Global Economist Global Economics Analyst Head of Indian Equity Research Research Assistant Tel: +852 2841 4841 Tel: +852 2841 4841 Tel: +65 6306 8611 Tel. +852 2841 4881 Tel. +65 6212 6067 Tel: +852 2841 4036 Tel: +65 6212 6327 Tel. +852 3407 8058 Tel: +65 6212 2045 Tel. +81 3 4550 5462 Tel. +61 2 8205 4296 Tel. +65 6212 6150 Tel. +65 6212 6655 Tel. + 65 6212 6072 Tel. +65 6212 6070 Tel: +852 3407 8194 Tel: +852 3407 8245 Tel. +852 3407 8268 Tel. +852 3407 8243 Tel. +65 6306 7073 Tel. +44 20 7883 8228 Tel. +41 44 333 01 46 Tel. +41 44 333 50 62 Tel: +65 6212 6071 Tel. +91 22 6777 3842 Tel: +852 3407 8285 E-mail: cheukwan.fan@credit-suisse.com E-mail: cheukwan.fan@credit-suisse.com E-mail: soon.g.chew@credit-suisse.com E-mail: wing-son.cheng@credit-suisse.com E-mail: soekching.kum@credit-suisse.com E-mail: irene.chow@credit-suisse.com E-mail: koonhow.heng@credit-suisse.com E-mail: daniel.tam@credit-suisse.com E-mail: neel.gopalakrishnan@credit-suisse.com E-mail: soichiro.matsumoto@credit-suisse.com E-mail: david.mcdonald@credit-suisse.com E-mail: dennis.tan@credit-suisse.com E-mail: michael.macdonald@credit-suisse.com E-mail: shirley.wong@credit-suisse.com E-mail: adam.quek@credit-suisse.com E-mail: daisy.wu@credit-suisse.com E-mail: wenchi.yu@credit-suisse.com E-mail: michael.mak@credit-suisse.com E-mail: alfred.c.chow@credit-suisse.com E-mail: stefan.graber@credit-suisse.com E-mail: michael.o'sullivan@credit-suisse.com E-mail: olivier.p.mueller@credit-suisse.com E-mail: thomas.herrmann@credit-suisse.com E-mail: marcel.thieliant@credit-suisse.com E-mail: toral.munshi@credit-suisse.com E-mail: daphne.li@credit-suisse.com

Authors
Fan Cheuk Wan Chew Soon Gek Wing-son Cheng Kum Soek Ching Irene Chow Heng Koon How Daniel Tam Neel Gopalakrishnan Soichiro Matsumoto David McDonald Dennis Tan Michael Macdonald Shirley Wong Adam Quek Daisy Wu Yu Wen Chi Michael Mak Alfred Chow Stefan Graber Michael O'Sullivan Olivier Mller Herrmann Thomas Marcel Thieliant Toral Munshi

Editor
Daphne Li

We wish to thank Shishir Malik and Rizwan Siddiqui of Credit Suisse Business Analytics (India) Private Limited for contributing to this publication.

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http://www.creditsuisse.com/research

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http://research.csintra.net

19

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Important information on derivatives Pricing: Option premiums and prices mentioned are indicative only. Option premiums and prices can be subject to very rapid changes: The prices and premiums mentioned are as of the time indicated in the text and might have changed substantially in the meantime. Risks: Derivatives are complex instruments and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding and assuming all the risks involved. Investors must be aware that adding option positions to an existing portfolio may change the characteristics and behavior of that portfolio substantially. A portfolios sensitivity to certain market m oves can be heavily impacted by the leverage effect of options. Buying calls: Investors who buy call options risk the loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security trades below the strike price at expiration. Buying puts: Investors who buy put options risk loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security finishes above the strike price at expiration. Selling calls: Investors who sell calls commit themselves to sell the underlying for the strike price, even if the market price of the underlying is substantially higher. Investors who sell covered calls (own the underlying security and sell a call) risk limiting their upside to the strike price plus the upfront premium received and may have their security called away if the security price exceeds the strike price of the short call. Additionally, the investor has full downside participation that is only partially offset by the premium received upfront. If investors are forced to sell the underlying they might be subject to taxing. Investors shorting naked calls (i.e. selling calls but without holding the underlying security) risk unlimited losses of security price less strike price. Selling puts: Put sellers commit to buying the underlying security at the strike price in the event the security falls below the strike price. The maximum loss is the full strike price less the premium received for selling the put. Buying call spreads: Investors who buy call spreads (buy a call and sell a call with a higher strike) risk the loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying trades below the lower strike price at expiration. The maximum gain from buying call spreads is the difference between the strike prices, less the upfront premium paid. Selling naked call spreads (sell a call and buy a farther out-ofthe-money call with no underlying security position): Investors risk a maximum loss of the difference between the long call strike and the short call strike, less the upfront premium taken in, if the underlying security finishes above the long call strike at expiration. The maximum gain is the upfront premium taken in, if the security finishes below the short call strike at expiration.

Buying put spreads: Investors who buy put spreads (buy a put and sell a put with a lower strike price) also have a maximum loss of the upfront premium paid. The maximum gain from buying put spreads is the difference between the strike prices, less the upfront premium paid. Buying strangles (buy put and buy call): The maximum loss is the entire premium paid for both options, if the underlying trades between the put strike and the call strike at expiration. Selling strangles or straddles: Investors who are long a security and short a strangle or straddle risk capping their upside in the security to the strike price of the call that is sold plus the upfront premium received. Additionally, if the security trades below the strike price of the short put, investors risk losing the difference between the strike price and the security price (less the value of the premium received) on the short put and will also experience losses in the security position if they owns shares. The maximum potential loss is the full value of the strike price (less the value of the premium received) plus losses on the long security position. Investors who are short naked strangles or straddles have unlimited potential loss since, if the security trades above the call strike price, investors risk losing the difference between the strike price and the security price (less the value of the premium received) on the short call. In addition, they are obligated to buy the security at the put strike price (less upfront premium received) if the security finishes below the put strike price at expiration.

20

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Risk disclosure Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this report, please refer to the following Internet link:
https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure

CS may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. CS will not treat recipients as its customers by virtue of their receiving the report. The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk.

Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. Some investments discussed in this report have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is realized. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment, in such circumstances you may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that income yield. Some investments may not be readily realizable and it may be difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.

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Disclosure appendix
Analyst certification The analysts identified in this report hereby certify that views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about all of the subject companies and securities. The analysts also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO) Analysts mentioned in this report are employed by Credit Suisse Business Analytics (India) Private Limited. Important disclosures Credit Suisse policy is to publish research reports, as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisse policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. The Credit Suisse Code of Conduct to which all employees are obliged to adhere, is accessible via the website at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/governance/doc/code_of_conduct_en.pdf For more detail, please refer to the information on independence of financial research, which can be found at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/pb_research/independence_en.pdf The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Credit Suisse Investment Banking business. BNP PARIBAS (BNP FP)

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BANK OF AMERICA (BAC US) HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BHP BILLITON LIMITED (BHP AU) BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BMW (BMW GY) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BRIDGESTONE (5108 JP) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY CARREFOUR (CA FP) HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL CATERPILLAR INC (CAT US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY CATHAY PACIFIC (293 HK) BUY HOLD HOLD CENTRICA PLC (CNA LN) HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY CHEVRON (CVX US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H (939 BUY HK) BUY

since 10/12/2012 since 31/10/2012 since 27/09/2012 since 31/07/2012 since 27/04/2012 since 28/02/2012 since 18/01/2013 since 19/10/2012 since 19/07/2012 since 20/04/2012 since 20/01/2012 since 27/02/2013 since 18/10/2012 since 23/08/2012 since 19/04/2012 since 10/02/2012 since 10/04/2013 since 15/03/2013 since 07/11/2012 since 03/08/2012 since 04/05/2012 since 15/03/2012 since 14/02/2013 since 08/11/2012 since 02/08/2012 since 04/05/2012 since 15/02/2012 since 14/03/2013 since 26/02/2013 since 16/01/2013 since 13/11/2012 since 08/08/2012 since 14/05/2012 since 24/10/2011 since 08/03/2013 since 16/10/2012 since 31/08/2012 since 12/07/2012 since 13/04/2012 since 13/02/2013 since 21/01/2013 since 24/10/2012 since 26/09/2012 since 27/07/2012 since 30/04/2012 since 30/01/2012 since 15/03/2013 since 09/08/2012 since 15/03/2012 since 28/02/2013 since 29/11/2012 since 17/08/2012 since 31/07/2012 since 14/05/2012 since 24/02/2012 since 04/02/2013 since 05/11/2012 since 02/08/2012 since 04/05/2012 since 31/01/2012 since 25/03/2013 since 01/02/2013

Equity rating history as of 15/04/2013


Company
ADIDAS (ADS GR)

Rating
HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD

Date
since 13/03/2013 since 08/11/2012 since 03/08/2012 since 09/03/2012 since 14/12/2012 since 01/11/2012 since 12/10/2012 since 05/09/2012 since 03/05/2012 since 30/08/2011 since 18/12/2012 since 14/09/2012 since 04/05/2012 since 28/02/2012 since 17/12/2012 since 06/08/2012 since 16/05/2012 since 24/02/2012 since 27/02/2013 since 12/11/2012 since 25/09/2012 since 13/08/2012 since 15/05/2012 since 25/04/2012 since 02/03/2012 since 11/02/2013 since 20/11/2012 since 11/11/2011 since 21/02/2013 since 25/10/2012 since 14/09/2012 since 06/08/2012 since 14/05/2012 since 17/02/2012 since 05/03/2013

AIR CHINA -H (753 HK)

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

AIRASIA (AIRA MK)

BUY BUY BUY BUY

ALLIANZ (ALV GY)

BUY BUY BUY BUY

ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT (AP BUY TB) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY ASTELLAS PHARMA (4503 JP) BUY BUY BUY AXA (CS FP) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BANK MANDIRI (BMRI IJ) BUY

22

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BUY BUY BUY BUY CNOOC LTD (883 HK) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD COCA-COLA (KO US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY DBS (DBS SP) BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD DEERE & CO (DE US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY DIAGEO (DGE LN) BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD EMC (EMC US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY ENEL SPA (ENEL IM) HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST (FEHT SP) FRESENIUS SE (FRE GY) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY GAMUDA (GAM MK) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY GDF SUEZ (GSZ FP) HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE US) BUY BUY

since 29/10/2012 since 27/08/2012 since 18/04/2012 since 23/08/2011 since 03/04/2013 since 31/01/2013 since 25/10/2012 since 21/08/2012 since 09/05/2012 since 29/03/2012 since 13/02/2013 since 17/10/2012 since 15/08/2012 since 18/07/2012 since 18/04/2012 since 08/02/2012 since 06/02/2013 since 01/11/2012 since 12/10/2012 since 03/08/2012 since 27/04/2012 since 04/04/2012 since 27/02/2013 since 23/11/2012 since 17/08/2012 since 21/05/2012 since 17/02/2012 since 31/01/2013 since 18/10/2012 since 24/08/2012 since 13/07/2012 since 07/05/2012 since 09/02/2012 since 30/01/2013 since 24/10/2012 since 18/07/2012 since 03/05/2012 since 24/01/2012 since 13/03/2013 since 06/02/2013 since 20/12/2012 since 08/08/2012 since 11/05/2012 since 14/03/2012 since 07/02/2013 since 06/11/2012 since 28/02/2013 since 07/11/2012 since 10/08/2012 since 11/05/2012 since 24/02/2012 since 05/04/2013 since 26/12/2012 since 28/09/2012 since 02/07/2012 since 23/12/2011 since 01/03/2013 since 10/12/2012 since 13/08/2012 since 28/02/2012 since 09/04/2013 since 21/01/2013 KEPPEL CORP (KEP SP) KASIKORNBANK (KBANK TB) JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM US) ITC LTD (ITC IN) INTESA SANPAOLO (ISP IM) IBERDROLA (IBE SM) HSBC (HSBA LN) HONDA MOTOR (7267 JP) HENDERSON LAND DEVELOPMENT (12 HK) HDFC BANK LIMITED (HDFCB IN) GOOGLE (GOOG US) GLAXOSMITHKLINE (GSK LN)

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY

since 24/12/2012 since 22/10/2012 since 23/07/2012 since 23/04/2012 since 23/01/2012 since 12/02/2013 since 02/11/2012 since 14/08/2012 since 26/04/2012 since 16/02/2012 since 24/01/2013 since 23/10/2012 since 20/07/2012 since 03/05/2012 since 13/04/2012 since 18/01/2013 since 16/07/2012 since 19/04/2012 since 24/01/2012 since 26/03/2013 since 24/08/2012 since 28/03/2012 since 01/02/2013 since 15/01/2013 since 30/10/2012 since 01/08/2012 since 17/07/2012 since 06/12/2011 since 08/03/2013 since 06/11/2012 since 30/07/2012 since 08/05/2012 since 27/02/2012 since 15/02/2013 since 25/10/2012 since 14/08/2012 since 11/07/2012 since 04/11/2011 since 18/03/2013 since 16/11/2012 since 06/08/2012 since 16/05/2012 since 20/03/2012 since 24/01/2013 since 13/12/2012 since 02/08/2012 since 28/05/2012 since 25/10/2011 since 17/01/2013 since 09/11/2012 since 15/10/2012 since 16/07/2012 since 07/06/2012 since 11/05/2012 since 13/04/2012 since 22/01/2013 since 22/01/2013 since 19/10/2012 since 20/07/2012 since 25/04/2012 since 27/01/2012 since 28/01/2013

23

Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD LENOVO (992 HK) BUY BUY BUY BUY MASTERCARD (MA US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY MERCK & CO (MRK US) BUY BUY BUY BUY MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP (8306 JP) MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP (8411 JP) MORGAN STANLEY (MS US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (NAB AU) HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY ORACLE (ORCL US) BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD PFIZER (PFE US) HOLD BUY PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL (PM US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY RIO TINTO (RIO LN) BUY BUY BUY BUY

since 19/10/2012 since 22/08/2012 since 14/05/2012 since 20/04/2012 since 13/04/2012 since 12/04/2013 since 24/01/2013 since 09/11/2012 since 16/03/2012 since 06/02/2013 since 04/02/2013 since 02/11/2012 since 02/08/2012 since 04/05/2012 since 03/02/2012 since 05/02/2013 since 30/10/2012 since 16/08/2012 since 14/02/2012 since 12/03/2013 since 17/12/2012 since 21/02/2012 since 05/02/2013 since 23/02/2012 since 21/01/2013 since 19/10/2012 since 04/10/2012 since 20/07/2012 since 07/06/2012 since 23/04/2012 since 23/01/2012 since 08/02/2013 since 31/10/2012 since 22/10/2012 since 15/08/2012 since 11/05/2012 since 30/04/2012 since 08/02/2012 since 26/03/2013 since 19/12/2012 since 21/09/2012 since 19/06/2012 since 23/03/2012 since 11/02/2013 since 01/02/2012 since 14/02/2013 since 19/10/2012 since 20/07/2012 since 20/04/2012 since 16/03/2012 since 06/03/2013 since 25/01/2013 since 25/10/2012 since 03/08/2012 since 21/06/2012 since 30/04/2012 since 30/01/2012 since 18/02/2013 since 17/01/2013 since 17/10/2012 since 08/08/2012 SOFTBANK (9984 JP) SOCIETE GENERALE (GLE FP) SIEMENS (SIE GY) SIA (SIA SP) SEVEN & I (3382 JP) SEMEN INDONESIA (SMGR IJ) SCHLUMBERGER (SLB US) SBERBANK (SBER RU) ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A (RDSA NA) ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE) (ROG VX)

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS (005930 KS) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY

since 18/04/2012 since 10/02/2012 since 12/04/2013 since 31/01/2013 since 19/10/2012 since 30/07/2012 since 13/04/2012 since 01/02/2013 since 02/11/2012 since 27/07/2012 since 27/04/2012 since 06/02/2012 since 08/04/2013 since 11/01/2013 since 29/10/2012 since 27/08/2012 since 27/04/2012 since 23/03/2012 since 02/04/2013 since 20/03/2013 since 04/02/2013 since 06/12/2012 since 24/09/2012 since 31/08/2012 since 31/05/2012 since 30/03/2012 since 22/01/2013 since 22/10/2012 since 23/07/2012 since 23/04/2012 since 24/01/2012 since 01/04/2013 since 12/11/2012 since 21/08/2012 since 20/06/2012 since 29/12/2011 since 08/04/2013 since 05/03/2013 since 05/10/2012 since 20/09/2012 since 22/05/2012 since 11/04/2012 since 15/03/2013 since 06/12/2012 since 19/09/2012 since 10/05/2012 since 06/02/2012 since 29/01/2013 since 20/11/2012 since 31/07/2012 since 02/05/2012 since 24/01/2012 since 13/02/2013 since 08/11/2012 since 02/08/2012 since 04/05/2012 since 16/02/2012 since 03/04/2013 since 06/02/2013 since 02/11/2012 since 17/10/2012

RESTRICTED since 17/09/2012

RESTRICTED since 08/06/2012

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Singapore and Hong Kong, 16 April 2013

BUY BUY BUY BUY SONY (6758 JP) HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD SELL HOLD HOLD SELL HOLD STARBUCKS (SBUX US) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP (8316 JP) SUNCOR ENERGY (SU CN) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY TENCENT (700 HK) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY THYSSEN KRUPP (TKA GR) HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD TOSHIBA (6502 JP) BUY BUY BUY BUY TOYOTA MOTOR (7203 JP) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY UBS (UBSN VX) HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY UNICREDIT (UCG IM) HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD

since 11/10/2012 since 04/09/2012 since 29/06/2012 since 17/08/2011 since 10/04/2013 since 11/03/2013 since 19/02/2013 since 18/02/2013 since 15/11/2012 since 25/09/2012 since 08/08/2012 since 16/05/2012 since 17/04/2012 since 04/08/2011 since 29/01/2013 since 10/01/2013 since 02/11/2012 since 07/08/2012 since 02/05/2012 since 11/04/2012 since 12/03/2013 since 04/01/2013 since 21/02/2012 since 11/02/2013 since 22/11/2012 since 13/08/2012 since 09/05/2012 since 02/03/2012 since 21/03/2013 since 15/11/2012 since 12/10/2012 since 16/08/2012 since 17/05/2012 since 15/03/2012 since 14/02/2013 since 12/12/2012 since 28/09/2012 since 13/08/2012 since 13/07/2012 since 17/05/2012 since 15/02/2012 since 27/03/2013 since 20/02/2013 since 13/09/2012 since 09/03/2012 since 06/02/2013 since 14/01/2013 since 06/11/2012 since 07/08/2012 since 10/05/2012 since 13/02/2012 since 05/02/2013 since 20/12/2012 since 31/10/2012 since 01/08/2012 since 02/05/2012 since 07/02/2012 since 19/03/2013 since 19/02/2013 since 10/01/2013 since 15/11/2012 since 17/09/2012 VODAFONE (VOD LN)

BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

since 06/08/2012 since 29/06/2012 since 14/05/2012 since 30/03/2012 since 13/02/2013 since 14/11/2012 since 30/07/2012 since 22/05/2012 since 22/05/2012 since 21/02/2012

Fundamental and/or long-term research reports are not regularly produced for (INTESA SANPAOLO). The Global Research department reserves the right to terminate coverage at short notice. Please contact your Relationship Manager for the specific risks of investing in securities of these companies. As at the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (VODAFONE , SIEMENS, CARREFOUR, UBS, THYSSEN KRUPP, AXA, DIAGEO, ALLIANZ). For the following disclosures, references to Credit Suisse include all of the subsidiaries and affiliates of Credit Suisse AG, the Swiss bank, operating under its Investment Banking division. The subject issuer (SONY, SOCIETE GENERALE, SIEMENS, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, IBERDROLA, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK H, CHEVRON, CENTRICA PLC, CATHAY PACIFIC, CATERPILLAR INC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, UBS, TOYOTA MOTOR, TOSHIBA, THYSSEN KRUPP, TENCENT, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SEVEN & I, SEMEN INDONESIA, SCHLUMBERGER, SBERBANK, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), RIO TINTO, PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, KASIKORNBANK, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GOOGLE, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GDF SUEZ, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , BANK MANDIRI, AXA, ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT , ADIDAS, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, HENDERSON LAND DEVELOPMENT, HDFC BANK LIMITED, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, ALLIANZ, AIRASIA, AIR CHINA -H, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO, MASTERCARD) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (SOCIETE GENERALE, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CHEVRON, CENTRICA PLC, CATERPILLAR INC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, TOYOTA MOTOR, TOSHIBA, THYSSEN KRUPP, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SEVEN & I, SEMEN INDONESIA, SCHLUMBERGER, SBERBANK, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, KASIKORNBANK, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GOOGLE, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GDF SUEZ, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , BANK MANDIRI, AXA, ADIDAS, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, HDFC BANK LIMITED, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, ALLIANZ, AIRASIA, AIR CHINA -H, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services, which may include Sales and Trading services, to the subject issuer (SONY, SOCIETE GENERALE, SIEMENS, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, IBERDROLA, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CENTRICA PLC, CATHAY PACIFIC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, UBS, TOYOTA MOTOR, THYSSEN KRUPP, TENCENT, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), RIO TINTO, PROCTER & GAMBLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, KASIKORNBANK, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GDF SUEZ, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, BANK MANDIRI, AXA, ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT , ADIDAS, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, HENDERSON LAND DEVELOPMENT, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, ALLIANZ, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO, MASTERCARD) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject issuer (SOCIETE GENERALE, SIEMENS, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, IBERDROLA, ENEL SPA, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CENTRICA PLC, CATHAY PACIFIC, UNICREDIT, UBS, TOYOTA MOTOR, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SEMEN INDONESIA, SBERBANK, PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO,

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KEPPEL CORP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GOOGLE, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , AXA, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO) within the past three years. Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject issuer (SOCIETE GENERALE, INTESA SANPAOLO, ENEL SPA, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CENTRICA PLC, UNICREDIT, TOYOTA MOTOR, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SBERBANK, PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , AXA, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HONDA MOTOR, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject issuer (SOCIETE GENERALE, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CENTRICA PLC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, TOYOTA MOTOR, TOSHIBA, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SEMEN INDONESIA, SCHLUMBERGER, SBERBANK, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GOOGLE, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , BANK MANDIRI, AXA, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, AIRASIA, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject issuer (SONY, SOCIETE GENERALE, SIEMENS, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, IBERDROLA, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CENTRICA PLC, CATHAY PACIFIC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, UBS, TOYOTA MOTOR, THYSSEN KRUPP, TENCENT, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), RIO TINTO, PROCTER & GAMBLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, KASIKORNBANK, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GDF SUEZ, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, BANK MANDIRI, AXA, ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT , ADIDAS, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, HENDERSON LAND DEVELOPMENT, DIAGEO, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, ALLIANZ, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject issuer (SOFTBANK, SOCIETE GENERALE, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CHEVRON, CENTRICA PLC, CATHAY PACIFIC, CATERPILLAR INC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, TOYOTA MOTOR, TOSHIBA, THYSSEN KRUPP, TENCENT, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, STARBUCKS, SEVEN & I, SEMEN INDONESIA, SCHLUMBERGER, SBERBANK, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, KASIKORNBANK, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GOOGLE, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GDF SUEZ, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , BANK MANDIRI, AXA, ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT , ADIDAS, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, HENDERSON LAND DEVELOPMENT, HDFC BANK LIMITED, DIAGEO, BRIDGESTONE, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, ALLIANZ, AIRASIA, AIR CHINA -H, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO) within the next three months. As at the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the subject issuer (SONY, EMC, CHEVRON, CATERPILLAR INC, TOYOTA MOTOR, TOSHIBA, SUNCOR ENERGY, STARBUCKS, SCHLUMBERGER, RIO TINTO, PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, MORGAN STANLEY, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, GOOGLE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, DEERE & CO, COCA-COLA, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HONDA MOTOR, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO). Credit Suisse holds a trading position in the subject issuer (VODAFONE , SONY, SOFTBANK, SOCIETE GENERALE, SIEMENS, SIA, INTESA SANPAOLO, IBERDROLA, FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST, ENEL SPA, EMC, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - H, CHEVRON, CENTRICA PLC, CATHAY PACIFIC, CATERPILLAR INC, CARREFOUR, UNICREDIT, UBS, TOYOTA MOTOR, TOSHIBA, THYSSEN KRUPP, TENCENT, SUNCOR ENERGY, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, STARBUCKS, SEVEN & I, SEMEN INDONESIA, SCHLUMBERGER, SBERBANK, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), RIO TINTO, PROCTER & GAMBLE, ORACLE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, MORGAN STANLEY, LENOVO, KEPPEL CORP, KASIKORNBANK, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, ITC LTD,

GOOGLE, GLAXOSMITHKLINE, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GDF SUEZ, GAMUDA, FRESENIUS SE, DEERE & CO, DBS, COCA-COLA, CNOOC LTD, BANK OF AMERICA , BANK MANDIRI, AXA, ASTELLAS PHARMA, ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT , ADIDAS, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PFIZER, HSBC, HONDA MOTOR, HENDERSON LAND DEVELOPMENT, HDFC BANK LIMITED, DIAGEO, BRIDGESTONE, BNP PARIBAS, BMW, BHP BILLITON LIMITED, ALLIANZ, AIRASIA, AIR CHINA -H, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MERCK & CO, MASTERCARD). Additional disclosures for the following jurisdictions United Kingdom: For fixed income disclosure information for clients of Credit Suisse (UK) Limited and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, please call +41 44 333 33 99. For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/disclosure

Guide to analysis
Equity rating allocation as of 15/04/2013
Overall
BUY HOLD SELL RESTRICTED 40.10% 52.40% 5.27% 2.24%

Investment banking interests only


40.75% 50.98% 5.71% 2.56%

Relative stock performance At the stock level, the selection takes into account the relative attractiveness of individual shares versus the sector, market position, growth prospects, balance-sheet structure and valuation. The sector and country recommendations are overweight, neutral, and underweight and are assigned according to relative performance against the respective regional and global benchmark indices. Absolute stock performance The stock recommendations are BUY, HOLD and SELL and are dependent on the expected absolute performance of the individual stocks, generally on a 6-12 months horizon based on the following criteria: BUY: HOLD: SELL: RESTRICTED: 10% or greater increase in absolute share price variation between -10% and +10% in absolute share price 10% or more decrease in absolute share price In certain circumstances, internal and external regulations exclude certain types of communications, including e.g. an investment recommendation during the course of Credit Suisse engagement in an investment banking transaction. Research coverage has been concluded.

TERMINATED:

Absolute bond recommendations The bond recommendations are based fundamentally on forecasts for total returns versus the respective benchmark on a 36 month horizon and are defined as follows: BUY: HOLD: SELL: RESTRICTED: Expectation that the bond issue will outperform its specified benchmark Expectation that the bond issue will perform in line with the specified benchmark Expectation that the bond issue will underperform its specified benchmark In certain circumstances, internal and external regulations exclude certain types of communications, including e.g. an investment recommendation during the course of Credit Suisse engagement in an investment banking transaction.

Credit Suisse HOLT With respect to the analysis in this report based on the HOLT(tm) methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm's compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default variables and incorporated into the algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided

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by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. These adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variables may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur. Additional information about the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request. CFROI(r), CFROE, HOLT, HOLTfolio, HOLTSelect, HS60, HS40, ValueSearch, AggreGator, Signal Flag and Powered by HOLT are trademarks or registered trademarks of Credit Suisse or its affiliates in the United States and other countries. HOLT is a corporate performance and valuation advisory service of Credit Suisse. For technical research Where recommendation tables are mentioned in the report, Close is the latest closing price quoted on the exchange. MT denotes the rating for the medium -term trend (36 months outlook). ST denotes the short-term trend (36 weeks outlook). The ratings are + for a positive outlook (price likely to rise), 0 for neutral (no big price changes expected) and for a negative outlook (price likely to fall). Outperform in the column Rel perf denotes the expected performance of the stocks relative to the benchmark. The Comment column includes the latest advice from the analyst. In the column Recom the date is listed when the stock was recommended for purchase (opening purchase). P&L gives the profit or loss that has accrued since the purchase recommendation was given. For a short introduction to technical analysis, please refer to Technical Analysis Explained at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/pb_research/technical_tutorial_en.pdf

applicable to CS. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. CS may have issued, and may in the future issue, a trading idea regarding this security. Trading ideas are short term trading opportunities based on market events and catalysts, while company recommendations reflect investment recommendations based on expected total return over a 6 to 12-month period as defined in the disclosure section. Because trading ideas and company recommendations reflect different assumptions and analytical methods, trading ideas may differ from the company recommendations. In addition, CS may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. 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Global disclaimer / important information


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