Biodiversity

A course for Planners & Decision-Makers

Module 1: Setting the stage for biodiversity Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

NRE

Prepared by Micael Junkov 2008/09 EPU/Danidas Environmental Programme The Biodiversity Component

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

Module 1: Setting the stage

The MA is the most comprehensive survey ever

into the state of the planet. It was drawn up by 1,360 researchers from 95 nations over four years from 2001 to 2005. The MA is somewhat unique in defining ecosystems in terms of the "services", or benefits, that people get from them.

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Findings Full slideshow Findings 20-minute presentation Findings Animated slides

The following is an abridged presentation prepared for the purpose of this course (i.e. reduced number of slides and modification of a few for the purpose of clarification) Please consult original presentations at:
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspx
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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

MA conceptual framework
Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Human Security Well-being Freedom of choice and action

Indirect Drivers of Change

Demographic Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and Indirect framework) institutional Science and Technology Drivers Cultural and Religious

Direct Drivers of Change

Ecosystem Life on Earth: Services Biodiversity

Changes in land use Species introduction or removal Direct Technology adaptation and use Drivers External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

What was unique?

A multi-scale assessment

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Core questions
1.

What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change? change for the services provided by ecosystems and for human-well being?

2. What are the consequences of ecosystem

3. How might ecosystems and their services

change over the next 50 years?

4. What options exist to conserve ecosystems and

enhance their contributions to human wellbeing?

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Main Findings
1.

Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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14

World Population (billions)

12

10

6.5 billion in 2005

6

4 billion in 1975
4

2 billion in 1920
2

1 billion in 1800
0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year
Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau

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World GDP (trillion 1990 dollars)

60

$52 trillion in 2003

50

40

30

20

$10 trillion in 1967

10

$1 trillion in 1900
0 500 700 900 1100 1300 Year
Source: DeLong 1998

1500

1700

1900

2100

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Source: NASA

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Habitat Loss to 1990

Mediterranean Forests Temperate Grasslands & Woodlands Temperate Broadleaf Forest Tropical Dry Forest Tropical Grasslands Tropical Coniferous Forest Tropical Moist Forest 0
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

50 Percent of habitat (biome) remaining

100
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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Some ecosystem recovery now underway but high rates of conversion continue
Ecosystems in some regions are returning to conditions

similar to their pre-conversion states Rates of ecosystem conversion remain high or are increasing for specific ecosystems and regions

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Year of Peak Fish Harvest

Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Scale of change
20% of the worlds coral

reefs were lost and more than 20% degraded 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last several decades Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Percent Increase in Nitrogen Flows in Rivers

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone

Source: NOAA

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CO2 Concentration (ppm)

400

380

360

340

320

300

280 1954
Source: Keeling and Whorf, 2005.

1969

1983

1998

2012
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Global Surface Temperature (oC)

Relative to 1890-1900 mean

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.4 1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

The balance sheet

Enhanced
Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration

Degraded
Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional & local climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual & religious Aesthetic values

Mixed
Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease regulation Recreation & ecotourism

Bottom Line: Some 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Habitat change
Boreal

Climate change

Invasive species

Over exploitation

Pollution (N, P)

Forest

Temperate
Tropical Temperate grassland

Dryland

Mediterranean Tropical grassland & savanna Desert

Inland water Coastal Marine

Island
Mountain Polar
Impact during last Century Low
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

High

Current Decreasing Continue Increasing Very rapid increase trend

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Main Findings
1.

Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years.

2. Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals.
Degradation of many ecosystem services Increased risk of abrupt changes in ecosystems

Growing harm to poor people

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Economic and health costs of degradation can be substantial

Cost of damage of UK

Module 1: Setting the stage

$2.6 billion (10% of farm

agriculture to other ecosystem services

Cost of collapse of the

receipts)

$2 billion in income

cod fishery in Canada

support and retraining; loss of tens of thousands of jobs

$100 million annual costs

Introduction of Zebra

mussels into aquatic ecosystems in the US

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

to power industry
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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Increased likelihood of abrupt changes

(established but incomplete evidence)

Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication1 Coral reef regime shifts Disease emergence

Species introductions
Regional climate change
1

Atlantic Cod off Newfoundland

The process by which a lake, pond, or stream becomes eutrophic which means having waters rich in mineral and organic nutrients that promote a proliferation of plant life, especially algae , which reduces the dissolved oxygen content and often causes the extinction of other organisms (www.thefreedictionary.com/dict.asp?Word=Eutrophication).

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Economic value of non-marketed services can be high

Italy Forests in Italy
Passive use values Carbon sequestration Watershed protection Recreation and hunting NTFPs

Croatia in Croatia Forests

Passive use values

Carbon sequestration Watershed protection Recreation and hunting NTFPs

Grazing Timber and fuelwood 0 20 40 60 80

Grazing Timber and fuelwood

100 120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Economic Value ($ per hectare)

Photo: W. Reid

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Many services are public goods

Spiritual & religious Aesthetic Flood/Fire regulation Disease regulation Water purification Climate regulation Freshwater Genetic Resources Recreation & tourism Fiber Food
? ? ? ?

Economic Valuation
?

Private Benefit Capture

Difficult

Difficult or impossible

Easy
?

Easy

Economic Value ($)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Impact on Poor and Marginalized People

Module 1: Setting the stage

Poor people are most dependent on ecosystem services and most vulnerable to degradation of the services

Photo credit: Uittapron Juntawonsup/UNEP

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Main Findings
1.

Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years.

2. Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals.
3. Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but can be reversed.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Response options?
Multi-scale response is needed

Multiple stakeholders have different needs.

Responses are available to address the issues

identified. Responses insufficient unless relevant direct and indirect drivers of change are addressed. Cross-sectoral responses and more systematic consideration of trade-offs are required The ecosystem approach provides principles for integration across scales and across different responses.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Conclusions
Humans have changed most ecosystems beyond

recognition in a dramatically short space of time. Some 60% of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years. The MA observed that ecosystem approaches provide an important framework for assessing biodiversity and ecosystem services, and for evaluating and implementing potential responses.
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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

Launch coverage Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

29 wire services ran the story of the release of the findings in

nine languages
Hundreds of newspapers around the world carried the story Front page news in much of Europe as well as China, Brazil,

etc.
Evening TV broadcast news in UK, Italy, India, and on CNN-

International
BBCs Earth Report ran two half-hour programs

Economist cover story

Melbourne, Australia, March 30, 2005

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Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Module 1: Setting the stage

References
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: Biodiversity Synthesis.World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.WCMC, 2004

Web links
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment slideshows www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspx

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Thank you!

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