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Table of Contents
Global Economic Overview MENA Economic Overview MENA Capital Markets Country Proles Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen Top 100 Companies Global Investment House 1 2 7 25 37 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
World economy, which enjoyed healthy growth rates of 5.1% and 5.0% for 2006 and 2007 respectively, is expected to slowdown signicantly in coming years. Emerging Asian giants will also not be able to escape the slowdown in economy.
2006 5.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.8 7.9 6.1 7.4 11.6 9.8 5.7
2007 5.0 2.6 2.0 2.6 2.1 3.0 8.0 6.1 8.1 11.9 9.3 6.0
July 2008 Projections November 2008 Projections 2008 2009 2008 2009 3.9 3.0 3.7 2.2 1.5 0.5 1.4 -0.3 1.6 0.1 1.4 -0.7 1.3 0.2 1.2 -0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.8 -1.3 6.9 6.1 6.6 5.1 5.9 6.0 5.2 4.7 7.0 5.5 6.8 3.5 9.7 9.3 9.7 8.5 7.9 6.9 7.8 6.3 6.4 5.9 6.1 5.3
Global growth in 2008 will be primarily driven by emerging economies. However the growth in the world output is expected to slowdown to 3.7% in 2008, down from 5.0% in 2007.
Global Investment House 4 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
US$ bn
The recent crisis, which started from subprime mortgages in US, has spread across the world causing banks to write down signicant amounts. The total write downs till date (October 2008) have reached US$684.5bn. There has been decline across the markets on account of investors exiting their positions in order to preserve capital and minimize losses.
Relief Package ( US$ bn) 850.0 700.0 650.0 586.0 468.0 260.0 205.0 186.0 170.5 130.0 130.0 52.0
Rate Cut 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.81% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.20% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
New Rate 3.00% 1.00% 3.25% 6.66% 3.25% 3.25% 3.75% 11.00% 0.30% 3.25% 4.00% 3.25%
The unprecedented level of crisis has called for massive government intervention in the form of bailout packages to nancial sector and interest rate cuts.
Global Investment House 6 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
High real GDP growth rates of 6% and above achieved in the recent years. The medium-term outlook for the region is generally favorable with Middle East expecting to grow at 6.1% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009 while Africa expected to grow at 5.2% in 2008 and 4.7% in 2009.
Sovereign Ratings - Moodys Qatar Aa2 Kuwait Aa2 UAE Aa2 Saudi Arabia Aa3 Bahrain Aa3 Oman Aa3 Tunisia A3 Jordan Baa3 Morocco Ba1 Egypt Ba1 Lebanon B3
Source: Bloomberg
5.6%
1.9%
Non-oil sectors like construction, retail, transportation, and nancial services have contributed signicantly to growth. The break-even oil price for the scal accounts is much lower indicating that most oil exporters can easily absorb lower world oil prices.
1.8%
10
% of GDP
US$ bn
National savings are expected to rise considerably in 2008, with the total scal surplus rising to 11 percent of GDP in 2008. All GCC countries have large current account surplus creating substantial liquidity.
Global Investment House 11 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
Cash is King
Increasing Ofcial Reserves External Debt
Driven by the oil exports, external positions have continued to strengthen in 2008 with gross ofcial reserves of the region increasing substantially. Gross ofcial reserves of the region have increased almost vefold in the last ve years, and are set to surpass US$1.0 trillion in 2008.
12
% of GDP
US$ bn
During recent years, countries in MENA region have witnessed increase in ination due to high growth in money supply, high rents due to supply-side constraints, commodity price boom, dollar depreciation and rising cost of labor. However, we expect ination to come down in coming months on account of steep decline in commodity prices including oil, decline in global food prices and slowdown in real estate activities.
Global Investment House 13 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
MENA Banks with high regulatory capital do not face the same level of risk as that faced by banks in advanced economies. MENA Banks also have very minimal exposure to subprime mortgages in US.
Global Investment House 14 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
KUWAIT: Discount rate cut by 125bps to 4.5%; KD500mn pumped in local markets UAE: Repo rate cut by 50bps to 1.5%; lowers the interest rate on facilities to support liquidity at banks from 5% to 3%
QATAR: QIA to buy up to 20% of the capital of local banks, to boost their share prices KUWAIT: KIA considers investing KD1bn in the local stock market; injects KD100mn in the stock market
KUWAIT: KIA injects over KD50mn in Al Raed Fund UAE: CB offers an additional AED70bn (total AED120bn) to local banks
SAUDI ARABIA: Demand deposit statutory requirement decreased from 13% to 10%
SAUDI ARABIA: SAMA cuts repo rate by 50 basis points & reduced its cash reserve requirements for local banks to 10% from 13% UAE: Government guarantees bank deposits & interbanking lending
SAUDI ARABIA: Repo rate cut by 100bps to 4% Kuwait: Discount rate cut to 4.25% Bahrain: R epo rate cut by 125bps to 3.5%
11-Oct
13-Oct
15-Oct
17-Oct
19-Oct
21-Oct
23-Oct
25-Oct
27-Oct
29-Oct
11-Sep
13-Sep
15-Sep
17-Sep
19-Sep
21-Sep
23-Sep
25-Sep
27-Sep
29-Sep
15
31-Oct
1-Oct
3-Oct
5-Oct
7-Oct
1-Sep
3-Sep
5-Sep
7-Sep
9-Sep
9-Oct
2005 234 1,049 1,298 1,688 12,097 10,900 1,774 2,791 500 302 515 47 918
Inow (US$ mn) 2006 2007 122 2,915 159 1,623 18,293 12,806 3,219 2,739 600 1,121 383 19 317 123 1,756 1,138 2,377 24,318 13,253 1,835 2,845 885 464 448 21 754
Outow (US$ mn) 2006 2007 8,207 980 127 328 1,257 10,892 138 70 55 56 305 139 386 14,203 1,669 5,263 570 13,139 6,625 48 233 55 54 147 56 302
16
Inow (US$ mn) 2005 5,376 1,081 2,305 1,038 1,653 782 2006 10,043 1,795 3,541 2,013 2,450 3,312 2007 11,578 1,665 2,436 2,541 2,577 1,618
Outow (US$ mn) 2005 92 23 128 74 13 2006 148 35 7 534 445 33 2007 665 290 11 479 652 20
North African countries have been the net recipients of FDIs led by Egypt. During 2007, Egypt received FDIs worth US$11,578mn while outows amounted to US$665mn. Among the Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia and UAE have been largest recipients of FDI. During 2007, Saudi Arabia received FDIs worth US$24,318mn while outows amounted to US$13,139mn.
17
Private Equity
Private Equity Funds Raised in MENA Region
6,000 5,000
(US$ mn)
0.3%
ME NA
(US$ mn)
2 ,0 0 0
16 12
1 ,0 0 0
8 4
2006
Exits Values
0 2007 1H 2008
Number of transactions
Investment Size
Number of transactions
18
(US$ mn)
UA E
Eg y p t
Sau d i A rab ia
Jo rd a n
T u rkey
Oth e rs
Shift in investment focus away from oil & gas to service-based and consumer-oriented businesses
- Healthcare, Financial, Education, Services and Transport are the most promising sectors
The geographic focus of regional funds is changing and becoming more diverse Mandates & operations broaden to include regions like Turkey, Egypt and other North African countries Saudi Arabia is the market to watch out for the signicant opportunities it offers.
Global Investment House 19 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
5,000
1,452.5
US$mn
90.
6%
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
6,000 3,000 0
983.6 5,900.7
11,672.1
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
9M-2007
GCC
Other MENA
9M-2008
No. of issues
US$ mn
Despite the Global downturn, IPO activity was high in the rst nine months of 2008 with a record US$13bn raised in 50 IPOs as compared to US$6.9bn in 54 IPOs during the same period last year. Average oversubscription of 15.7x compared to 10.2x last year. Activity slowing down in the short run
Global Investment House 20
Capital Raised
8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 1Q-2007 2Q-2007 3Q-2007 4Q-2007 1Q-2008 2Q-2008 3Q-2008
GCC
MENA
Saudi SE 26% Amman SE 26% Over The Counter 6% Abu Dhabi SE 4% Muscat SM 4% Kuwait SE 2%
Saudi Arabia represented the largest issuer with 13 IPOs aggregating US$9.7bn and represented 26% of the total number of deals and 75% of the capital raised. It was followed by UAE where a total of US$1.3bn was raised in 8 IPOs.
21
Deals by Sector
Oil & Gas 10% Mining and Metals 6%
Telecoms and IT 15%
Construction 10%
Others 2%
Real Estate 5%
Consumer Goods 3%
Conglomerates 4%
Other 8%
The nancial services sector is the most active sector with more than 30% of the total number of deals and over 25% of the total capital raised.
Global Investment House 22 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
Sukuk Activity
Global Sukuk Issuance Trend
35,000 30,000
US$ mn
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2004 2005 2006 International 2007 9M-2008
-43
GCC
Sukuk market is fast emerging as the most signicant form of Islamic nancing. However, the credit crunch was felt on the sukuk issues with far fewer issues in 2008. GCC region accounted for 56% of the Global sukuk issuance. Although the number of issues during 9M-2008 stood 34 as compared to 36 during same period last year, the total funds raised decreased by 43%.
Global Investment House 23 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
Sukuk Trend
GCC Sukuk Issuance By Sector
9M-2007
Government 2% Oil & Gas 15% Power & Utilities 9% Financial Services 21%
Power & Utilities 17%
9M-2008
Oil & Gas 17%
Government 11%
Financial Services 8%
Construction 3%
Conglomerates 2%
UAE continued to remain the most active market for sukuk with a total of 10 issues worth US$5.3bn issued during 9M 2008. Real Estate companies dominated with a total of 8 issues worth US$4.85bn raised during 9M 2008 as compared to 7 issues worth US$3.42bn raised during the same period last year.
Global Investment House
GCC Sukuk Issuance 9M-2007 No. of Total Size Country Issues (US$mn) UAE 6 6,590 Saudi Arabia 5 5,716 Bahrain 20 710 Qatar 1 300 Kuwait 4 835 Total 36 14,151
Source: Zawya Sukuk Monitor
9M-2008 No. of Total Size Issues (US$mn) 10 5,300 3 1,669 18 597 2 301 1 190 34 8,057
24
Market Depth
Market Cap (in US$bn) 2006 Saudi Kuwait Egypt Dubai Abu Dhabi Doha Casablanca Amman Bahrain Muscat Tunis Beirut 326.3 143.8 93.6 86.9 80.7 60.9 47.8 29.8 21.1 12.9 4.2 8.3 2007 YTD 2008 519.0 210.5 138.0 125.3 110.7 95.5 67.1 41.2 27.0 23.0 5.0 10.8 387.0 199.4 113.3 71.2 85.1 99.0 65.7 49.5 27.3 20.0 7.2 13.9 Value Traded (in US$bn) 2006 1,402.8 59.2 50.3 94.7 19.2 20.5 9.1 20.1 1.3 2.3 3.5 2.0 2007 682.1 135.5 65.2 103.2 47.8 29.9 11.4 17.4 1.1 5.2 1.3 1.0 YTD08 436.4 110.5 86.3 73.3 58.3 38.7 8.3 25.5 1.6 7.8 1.9 1.1 No of Listed companies 2006 86 180 595 36 60 36 63 193 50 180 48 16 2007 111 196 435 45 61 40 71 212 51 190 54 14 Sep08 127 200 377 53 62 43 77 226 52 186 51 12
BAHRAIN
QATAR
SAUDI ARABIA
OMAN
KUWAIT
UAE
JORDAN
EGYPT
LEBANON
MOROCCO
TUNISIA
-11%
-8%
-18%
-22%
-20%
-30%
-38%
-40% -57%
-51%
-45%
-54%
2007
Source: MSCI, Global Research
2008YTD (Oct08)
MENA markets performed spectacularly during 2007 driven by strong macroeconomic factors and improved corporate earnings. Most of the MENA markets declined during 2008 taking cues from global markets and also due to exit of foreign investors.
Global Investment House 27 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
28
Saudi Arabia 1.00 0.60 0.57 0.52 0.51 0.42 0.34 0.35 0.16 0.12
UAE 0.60 1.00 0.57 0.64 0.68 0.41 0.50 0.16 0.30 0.19
Egypt 0.57 0.57 1.00 0.44 0.49 0.40 0.38 0.20 0.24 0.17
Oman 0.52 0.64 0.44 1.00 0.66 0.48 0.53 (0.07) 0.19 0.20
Qatar Kuwait Bahrain 0.51 0.68 0.49 0.66 1.00 0.51 0.59 (0.10) 0.23 0.26 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.48 0.51 1.00 0.56 (0.05) 0.05 0.16 0.34 0.50 0.38 0.53 0.59 0.56 1.00 0.09 0.28 0.21
US 0.35 0.16 0.20 (0.07) (0.10) (0.05) 0.09 1.00 0.53 0.16
UK 0.16 0.30 0.24 0.19 0.23 0.05 0.28 0.53 1.00 0.42
Crude Oil 0.12 0.19 0.17 0.20 0.26 0.16 0.21 0.16 0.42 1.00
With increased globalization and cross-border investments, global markets are becoming more correlated and GCC markets are no exception to this. Infact, the correlation between GCC markets & global markets have increased markedly in 2008 as compared to previous years.
Global Investment House 29 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
2005 96.7% 2.9% 48.1% 22.5% 42.0% 81.6% 68.4% 95.1% 35.6% 30.5% 6.3%
2006 -21.9% 36.7% 26.3% 17.5% 18.3% 10.3% 14.2% -18.8% 47.2% 28.5% 22.4%
2007 74.7% 10.3% 21.0% 50.7% 11.0% 40.7% 33.0% 28.4% 34.5% 19.0% -11.2%
Corporates in MENA have beneted signicantly from the macroeconomic factors and growth outlook remains positive.
Global Investment House 30 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
Attractive Valuations
Market PE (x)
21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0
Saudi Arabia Lebanon Morocco S&P 500 Kuwait Bahrain Nikkei Oman Jordan Egypt FTSE UAE Qatar SSE Composite Sensex MSCI World
18.6 16.5 14.3 11.6 9.5 8.5 8.3 9.1 9.7 9.4 7.7 12.3 13.1 10.3 12.5
12.2
In terms of P/E multiples, the majority of equity markets in the MENA region are trading at a single digit multiple offering excellent opportunity for entry. The MENA equity markets looks cheaper than the MSCI World Index which is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 12.2x. Within the MENA region, the most attractive in terms of P/E multiple is Oman with the lowest PE of 8.3x, followed by UAE with a multiple of 8.5x and Bahrain that is trading at a P/E multiple of 9.1x.
Global Investment House 31 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
PE Bands
Kuwait
60,000.0 50,000.0 40,000.0 30,000.0 20,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0
Dubai
Oct-06
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
Apr-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Oct-06
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
Apr-07
Oman
Bahrain
3,000.0
2,000.0
8,000.0 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0
1,000.0
Oct-06
Apr-08
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
O c t- 06
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
Apr-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Apr-07
Currently, the Muscat Stock Market (MSM) is the cheapest market in terms of valuation in the entire GCC region. As at 29th Oct08, the index closed at 6,119.2 points representing a PE of 8.3x.
Global Investment House 32 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
PE Bands (cont...)
Saudi Arabia
13,000.0
16,000.0
Qatar
14,000.0
12,000.0 11,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
Oct-06
Oct-07
Apr-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
2,000.0
Oct-06
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
Apr-07
Egypt
Jordan
Oct-06
Apr-08
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
Oct-06
Oct-07
Jan-07
Jul-08
Apr-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Apr-07
The Tadawul index, the largest by size in the region, suffered decline in the recent times following the global credit crisis. With this the market PE has come down to 11.6x.
Global Investment House 33 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
1.9
Saudi Arabia
Bahrain
Tunisia
Abu Dhabi
Lebanon
Dubai
Oman
Jordan
MSCI GCC
2006
2007
2008
MENA equities have sequentially increasing & highly attractive dividend yields...
8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.8 2.1 1.7 3.6 2.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 3.9 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.4 2.3 1.6 3.6 2.6 1.2 1.9 1.4 3.4 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 5.1 4.1 2.9 1.8 2.6 2.9 1.2
P/BV (x)
7.5
Saudi Arabia
Abu Dhabi
Lebanon
Bahrain
Tunisia
Oman
D uba i
Jordan
MSCI GCC
2006
2007
2008
MSCI EM
Kuwait
Egypt
Qatar
MSCI EM
Kuwait
Egypt
Qatar
Attractive Yield
Country Saudi Arabia Dubai Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Japan China India Malaysia Pakistan US UK Dividend Govt. Bond Yield Yield* 3.91% 3.92% 3.41% 4.25% 4.90% 1.88% 3.25% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 5.60% 4.50% 2.40% 0.50% 2.33% 4.30% 2.00% 7.00% 6.00% 4.00% 9.00% 13.00% 3.26% 1.60% 5.99% 6.25% Difference -0.01% -0.84% 3.03% -1.75% 0.50% 1.10% 1.90% -1.97% -5.00% 2.00% -4.00% 1.66% -0.26%
Source: Bloomberg, Global Research *Yield on Government Bond maturing after one year except for Dubai
The recent correction in the MENA markets has resulted in attractive dividend yields. Kuwait scores high on this parameter.
Global Investment House 35 MENA Economic Overview - November 2008
36
Country Proles
Algeria
*Estimated balances in 2007 and 2008, ** Excluding privatization receipts, which are classied under nonbank nancing, ***Provisional balances in 2007 and provisional midyear balances in 2008 Source:IMF, AfDB, OECD, Banque dAlgerie and Global Research
39
1%
0 2003 2004
GDP at constant prices (ADbn)
40
Bahrain
Source: Central Bank of Bahrain, * Preliminary, ** Global Estimates, # Figures as of year end on December and from January to June 2008 for 2008 ^ Figures as of year end on December and from January to September 2008 for 2008
42
Trade 9.1%
Real Estate & Business Services 7.4% Construction 5.0% Financial Institutions 18.4%
Manufacturing 15.3%
Insurance 4.3%
R e a l GD P Gro w t h
43
Egypt
(US$ mn) (US$ mn) (US$ mn) (US$ mn) (US$ mn) (US$ mn) (US$ mn) (LE mn) (LE mn) (LE mn) (Points) (LE bn) (Times) (Times)
^ Using 2001/02 prices for the period 2002/03 to 2006/07 and prices of 2006/07 for 2007/08, * Preliminary, ** Figures as of year end on December and from January to September 2008 for 2008, *** P/E and P/B ratios are based on the most active companies only (Liquid Market) Source: Central Bank of Egypt, Ministry of Finance, The Egyptian Exchange (EGX) and Global Research
45
46
Iran
Source: Central Bank Of The Islamic Republic Of Iran, Statistical Center of Iran, BP, IMF
48
billion of barrels
200
150
100
50
49
Iraq
2004 (US$bn)(2) % (US$mn) % (US$ ) mn % mn bpd (US$bn) US$ per barrel (US$bn) (US$bn)
(US$bn) % % (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn) Points (US$bn) bn (US$bn)
2005 52.6 33.4% 28.2 3.3% 1,882.2 28.0 37.0% 1.9 22.5 48.3 33.3 21.7
11.6 12.3% 19.8% 23.7 23.5 1.9 45.6 2.6 55.6 313.2
2006 78.6 49.4% 39.4 39.6% 2,692.6 28.8 53.2% 2.0 29.2 58.0 40.3 31.3
9.0 35.6% 43.6% 18.7 30.5 -9.4 25.2 1.6 57.9 125.4
2007 88.7 12.8% 39.5 0.4% 2,946.3 29.7 30.8% 2.2 37.1 66.4 42.8 27.6
15.2 40.5% 27.9% 8.7 4.3 6.0 34.5 1.7 152.9 364.9
2008(1) 100.0 12.8% 41.7 5.5% 3,289.8 30.4 14.0% 2.3 64.6 105.3(3) N/A N/A
N/A N/A 5.7%(4) 10.4 4.7 N/A 37.5(5) 1.8(5) 43.2(5) 78.7(5)
39.4 62.1% 27.3 23.0% 1,453.2 27.1 27.0% 2.1 17.7 34.6 27.1 26.4
0.7 75.8% 76.2% 17.8 21.3 -2.4 64.9 1.4 14.3 109.2
Source: Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT), IMF, Global Research (1) Forecast (2) US$ 1= ID 1,216 (3) As of October 08 (4) Up to June 08 (5) As of March 08
51
Iraq has also been promoting FDI in order to drive growth. Al-Maabar of Abu Dhabi, which will build a US$10bn project in Iraq, is considered the largest FDI in Iraq. The real GDP growth rate is expected to improve in 2008 to reach 5.5%, up from 0.4% in 2007.
Food
Clothing
Furniture
Transport
Health
Rent
52
Jordan
Source: CBJ, Zawya.com., Global Research , * Estimates, (a) August End, (b) September End
54
Domestic Debt
35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Net Domestic Debt
Net domestic debt to GDP
55
Kuwait
Source: CBK, Global Research, Zawya, IIF, (1) Forecast, (2) 266 ls= $1, (3) Up to June 2008, (4) Up to September 2008, (5) Up to October 2008
57
Interest Rates
10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 %
Deposit Rate
Lending Rate
58
Lebanon
Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Central Bank of Lebanon, www.databank.com.lb, IMF, IIF *Estimate, *As of July 2008, ** As of June 2008, *** As of July 2008 ****As of October 17, 2008
60
GDP Breakdown
Public administration 11.5% Agriculture and Energy and water supply livestock 0.6% 5.2% Industry 11.6%
Construction 8.2%
Services 33.6%
Budget Decit
LL bn 0 -500 39.1% -1,000 30% -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500 -4,000 -4,500 -5,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Up to June 08 -4,228.3 -4,292.3 1.5% -2,797.8 -3,026.2 -8.3% -3,938.0 -23.2% -30% -7.5% -3,892.6 -3,837.9 -20% -1.4% 0% 20% -1,990.8 10% 50% 40%
-10%
Growth rate
61
Morocco
Source: Central Bank, Ministry of Finance and privatization, Casablanca Stock Exchange, * All 2008 data are based on latest available data while 2008 economic performance data are estimated.
63
Industry 15%
Water & Electricity 3% Post & telecommunication 4% Transport 4% Construction and public works 7% Hotels and restaurants 3% Trade 12%
Source: Ministry of Finance, BDL, IMF, Global Research, ** Finance & insurance, Corporate & personal services, Education, Health & Social services, & others
Public Debt
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2005
Internal Debt
2006
External Debt
2007
64
Oman
mn (US$bn)
345.4 1.9
515.4 3.6
1,110.9 2.3
3,422.2 5.2
1,882.4 5.3
Source: Central Bank of Oman, IMF, Ministry of National Economy, Bloomberg, MSM & Global Research * End Aug08, ** 7M08 annualized for 2008, *** YTD Aug08 for 2008, **** As on 23Oct08 for 2008.
66
6.3 6.1 5.0 5.5 5.8 2005 Non-oil GDP 6.6 9.3 7.1
4.0 2004
2006
2007
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
67
Palestine
Source: PCBS, PMA,MOF, and PSE a) 2008 gures are IMF estimates, b) Latest gures from the PMA, c) latest gures as of the rst nine months of 2008
69
Public Debt
5,000.0 4,500.0 4,000.0 3,500.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Public Debt /GDP
45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Public Debt (mn USD)
70
Qatar
Source: Qatar Central Bank, Qatar Planning Council and Global Research, IMF
72
Medium term outlook is very favorable with strong growth expected to be driven by the hydrocarbon sector, as well as by diversication into higher value-added petrochemicals and other sectors such as real estate, nancial and service sector related industries. The scal and external positions are expected to remain very comfortable.
Global Investment House 73
(%)
Saudi Arabia
Source: SAMA, IMF & Global Research, N/A - Not Available, * As of 23rd October, # Till August, ^ Jan-Sep
75
FDI Inows
FDI Outows
2006
2007
Decit/Surplus
Source: SAMA
76
Syria
2004 24.2 18.4 20.8 6.7 1,366 17.9 4.4 455.0 2,601.4 6.6 6.7 -0.1 11.1 13.2 6.6 7.5 0.6
2005 27.9 18.1 21.3 4.5 1,544 18.3 7.2 415.8 3,347.0 6.7 6.9 -0.2 14.4 11.9 7.9 9.4 0.3
2006 32.9 14.6 23.1 5.1 1,785 18.7 10.4 386.2 3,261.1 8.4 7.8 0.6 -3.8 8.4 9.7 10.2 0.9
2007E 40.8 19.3 25.6 6.6 N/A N/A 4.7 364.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.3 12.4 N/A N/A N/A
(US$bn) % (US$bn) % (US$) millions % Thousands of bpd (US$mn) (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn) % % (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn)
20.7 5.0 19.7 1.1 1,236 17.6 5.1 477.8 3,207.7 6.2 6.4 -0.2 9.4 8.1 5.1 4.6 0.7
M1 Growth M2 Growth
Foreign Trade
78
Non-oil
Oil Revenue
GDP By Sector
22% 20%
10%
79
Tunisia
Source: BVMT, Central Bank of Tunisia, National Istiitute of Statistics *Based of Global Research Estimate and IIF estimate ** As of April 2008, *** As of October 17, 2008, **** Data As of Octber 19 2008, ***** Data from January 2008 to September 30th 2008
81
Industry 30%
Services 33%
2 003
200 4
2005
20 06
200 7
Sources: Central Bank of UAE, NBAD, OPEC, IIF, * Preliminary, ** Global Estimates, # Figures as of year end on December and from January to June 2008 for 2008, ^ Figures as of year end on December and from January to September 2008 for 2008
84
Manufacturing 13.0%
85
Yemen
Source: Central Bank of Yemen, Central Statistical Organization, World Bank, IMF, & Global Research *Gross reserves after deducting commercial bank foreign currency deposits with central bank, **(negative = inow)
87
46%
41%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
90
Rank 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Name TCI Orascom Construction Industries Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co National Bank Of Abu Dhabi Attijariwafa Bank Arab National Bank Commercial Bank Of Kuwait DP World Qatar Telecom Rabigh Rening and Petrochemical Co. Orascom Telecom Holding Etihad Etisalat Co Qatar Islamic Bank Banque Marocaine Du Commerce Alinma Bank Dubai Financial Market Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Al Ahli Bank Of Kuwait Zain KSA Ezdan Real Estate Co
Country Iran Egypt Saudi Arabia UAE Morocco Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Egypt Saudi Arabia Qatar Morocco Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar
Industry Telecom Construction Fertilizers Banking Banking Banking Banking Logistics Telecom Petrochemicals Telecom Telecom Islamic Banking Banking Islamic Banking Financial Services Petrochemicals Banking Telecom Real Estate
91
Rank 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
Name Emirates Integrated Telecom (du) Douja Prom Addoha First Gulf Bank Ahli United Bank Compagnie Generale Immobilie Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Gulf Bank Telecom Egypt Arab Potash Company Aamal Holding Dubai Islamic Bank Almarai Solidere Aldar Properties Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Isfahans Mobarakeh Steel Co. Lafarge Ciments Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank KIPCO Commercial Bank Of Qatar
Country UAE Morocco UAE Bahrain Morocco Saudi Arabia Kuwait Egypt Jordan Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Lebanon UAE Qatar Iran Morocco UAE Kuwait Qatar
Industry Telecom Real Estate Banking Banking Real Estate Real Estate Banking Telecom Fertilizers Diversied Islamic Banking Food Real Estate Real Estate Energy Transport Steel Building Materials Banking Holding Company Banking
92
Rank 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Name Saudi Arabian Mining Co Abu Dhabi National Energy Co Oman Telecommunications Co Housing Bank For Trade and Finance NMTC Jabal Omar Development Co National Iranian Copper Industries Co. National Industries Group Groupe ONA Yanbu National Petrochemical Saudi Hollandi Bank Savola Commercial Bank Of Dubai The Public Warehousing Co (Agility) Sorouh Real Estate Company Emaar Economic City Chadormalu Mineral & Ind. Co. Arkan Building Materials Co Bank Audi Sal - Audi Saradar Barwa Real Estate Co
Country Saudi Arabia UAE Oman Jordan Kuwait Saudi Arabia Iran Kuwait Morocco Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia Iran UAE Lebanon Qatar
Industry Materials Utilities Telecom Banking Telecom Real Estate Materials Diversied Diversied Petrochemicals Banking Food Banking Logistics Real Estate Real Estate Mining Building Materials Banking Real Estate
93
Rank 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
Name Bank Muscat Kuwait Foods (Americana) Burgan Bank Masraf Al Rayan Isfahan Renery Co. Gol-E-Gohar Iron Ore Co. Global Investment House Bank Albilad Bahrain Telecom Co Saudi Investment Bank Jordan Phosphate Mines Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank National Bank of Fujairah National Industrialization Co. Socit Nationale dInvestissement Omid Investment Management Co. Qatar International Islamic Bank Qatar Electricity & Water Co Gulf General Investment Co Union National Bank
Country Oman Kuwait Kuwait Qatar Iran Iran Kuwait Saudi Arabia Bahrain Saudi Arabia Jordan UAE UAE Saudi Arabia Morocco Iran Qatar Qatar UAE UAE
Industry Banking Food Banking Islamic Banking Petrochemicals Mining Financial Services Islamic Banking Telecom Banking Materials Islamic Banking Banking Holding Company Holding Company Holding Company Islamic Banking Utilities Financial Services Banking
94
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