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18 April 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts


Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6


Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6


Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ..................................................7


Over Valued ................................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8


Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors


Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath

Over Valued ..........................................................9


Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware


Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10


Under Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment


Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12


Under Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued ..................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13


Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15


Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report


This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based


upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for


the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a shares


volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Under Valued

Aerospace & Defence


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

376.10

270.90

397.30

Neutral

Buy

561

0.66

CHEMRING GROUP

257.40

217.00

414.70

Neutral

Buy

311

0.66

COBHAM

235.30

190.10

248.10

Neutral

Buy

279

0.83

MEGGITT

469.70

364.30

494.20

Neutral

Sell

396

1.32

1125.00

788.92

1135.00

Neutral

Neutral

1070

1.08

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

Target

Beta

SMITHS GROUP

1236.00

979.50

1328.00

Neutral

Sell

1018

0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1571.00

1424.00

1745.00

Neutral

Neutral

1499

0.50

Unde r V a lue d

Automobiles & Parts


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

245.70

173.60

285.00

Neutral

Neutral

Target
239

2.00

INCHCAPE

499.90

305.20

530.00

Neutral

Neutral

487

1.48

LOOKERS

95.50

56.50

100.50

Neutral

Neutral

102

1.24

PENDRAGON

22.25

13.25

25.00

Neutral

Buy

33

1.12

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BARCLAYS

290.30

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

Target
49

Beta
1.93

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

671.00

503.20

740.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1193

1.17
1.87

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

48.23

25.29

55.68

Sell

Strong Buy

75

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

283.20

196.60

367.80

Neutral

Sell

36

1.34

STANDARD CHARTERED

1609.00

1228.50

1837.50

Neutral

Sell

1012

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

535.50

348.00

572.00

Neutral

Neutral

576

0.55

DIAGEO

1974.50

1477.00

2085.00

Neutral

Sell

1739

0.55

SABMILLER

3342.50

2348.50

3552.50

Neutral

Buy

3851

0.95

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

275.40

240.00

406.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

620

CARCLO

375.00

345.75

503.00

Neutral

Neutral

370

0.74

2560.00

2094.00

2841.00

Neutral

Sell

2059

1.04

CRODA INTERNATIONAL

Target

Beta
#NA

243.00

179.00

275.00

Neutral

Buy

335

1.00

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2370.00

2080.27

2573.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

11075

1.44

VICTREX

ELEMENTIS

1531.00

1185.00

1736.00

Neutral

Sell

1411

1.13

SYNTHOMER

180.70

127.40

239.50

Neutral

Buy

203

1.16

ZOTEFOAMS

220.50

157.00

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

357

0.99

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

84.00

61.50

104.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

Target
231

Beta
0.52

BALFOUR BEATTY

242.20

225.70

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

959

0.79

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

283.10

114.00

288.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

438

1.50

BELLWAY

1301.00

660.00

1327.00

Neutral

Buy

1891

1.10

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

1995.00

1177.00

2093.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3280

0.63

BOOT (HENRY)

175.00

115.50

175.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

339

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

733.00

399.30

751.00

Neutral

Sell

548

1.14

CARILLION

275.00

235.50

331.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

781

1.10

CLARKE (T)

52.00

40.00

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

264

0.82

291.00

188.00

306.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

564

0.56

1320.00

1052.00

1540.00

Neutral

Sell

819

1.14

910.00

579.00

965.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1676

0.99

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER

818.00

348.25

848.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1987

1.25

1217.00

1106.00

1408.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3333

0.94

70.00

49.00

76.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

199

1.07

MARSHALLS

127.37

76.00

130.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

280

1.37

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

560.00

508.00

695.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3252

0.86

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

NORCROS

16.25

9.25

18.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

34

1.11

1106.00

532.00

1132.00

Neutral

Neutral

1108

1.15

REDROW

199.40

107.30

206.00

Neutral

Buy

285

1.05

SIG

149.00

82.30

162.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

459

1.74

5.33

3.88

17.75

Sell

Strong Buy

49

0.89

88.60

40.28

93.50

Neutral

Neutral

92

1.58

TRAVIS PERKINS

1420.00

906.50

1465.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2558

1.97

WOLSELEY

3156.00

2121.32

3337.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5089

1.43

PERSIMMON

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY

Under Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1235.00

935.00

1364.00

Neutral

Sell

764

0.78

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

641.50

509.00

717.00

Neutral

Buy

839

1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

116.00

105.50

149.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

244

1.31

INVENSYS

341.20

186.10

366.80

Neutral

Neutral

342

1.42

LAIRD

213.80

177.00

249.30

Neutral

Sell

84

2.12

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1557.00

1096.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1168

1.01

RENISHAW

1667.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2357

1.26

SPECTRIS

2205.00

1427.00

2470.00

Neutral

Neutral

2191

1.52

0.07

0.07

0.21

Neutral

Strong Buy

0.83

TT ELECTRONICS

161.00

114.00

190.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

402

1.59

XAAR

500.00

185.00

500.00

Sell

Sell

231

1.11

DIALIGHT

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

78.50

54.25

91.75

Neutral

Buy

94

1.26

BODYCOTE

481.40

310.30

556.50

Neutral

Neutral

482

1.61

CASTINGS

330.00

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

667

0.99

VESUVIUS

327.10

263.19

402.10

Neutral

Buy

474

2.19

FENNER

366.20

329.30

456.50

Neutral

Buy

522

1.42

HALMA

480.00

373.10

531.50

Neutral

Sell

377

0.76

HILL & SMITH

430.00

297.00

480.00

Neutral

Sell

306

1.37

1193.00

776.00

1347.00

Neutral

Buy

1329

1.40

IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO

Target

Beta

250.90

220.30

332.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

514

1.82

2659.00

1859.00

3037.00

Neutral

Sell

2434

0.99

240.90

177.00

253.10

Neutral

Sell

200

1.65

40.50

35.40

104.11

Neutral

Buy

46

0.73

2520.00

1900.00

2734.00

Neutral

Sell

2194

0.84

VITEC GROUP

621.00

586.50

740.00

Neutral

Sell

556

1.40

WEIR GROUP

2136.00

1397.00

2474.00

Neutral

Sell

1926

1.39

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

457.00

449.00

523.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

696

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

279.30

248.60

298.30

Neutral

Sell

197

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

377.40

283.50

387.20

Neutral

Sell

219

0.58

TESCO

369.75

297.05

387.75

Neutral

Sell

280

0.69

74.00

18.88

78.75

Neutral

Sell

53

0.84

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

1821.00

1167.00

1931.00

Neutral

Buy

2075

0.61

CRANSWICK

1043.00

732.50

1057.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2054

0.49

DAIRY CREST

434.40

290.40

444.00

Neutral

Buy

486

0.92

DEVRO

335.60

278.00

380.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

512

0.31

72.50

54.50

170.00

Neutral

Sell

-181

1.25

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

829.00

633.50

870.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1537

0.70

2760.00

2007.00

2831.00

Neutral

Neutral

2740

0.57

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

28.50

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

35

0.68

409.60

224.40

429.30

Neutral

Sell

360

0.53

1289.00

1000.00

1536.00

Neutral

Sell

965

1.27

618.50

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

306

0.94

34.54

12.67

35.45

Neutral

Strong Buy

84

1.50

144.50

55.20

186.00

Neutral

Sell

-22

1.08
0.99

BROWN (N) GROUP


BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

Target

Beta

28.00

19.50

44.25

Sell

Strong Buy

131

HALFORDS GROUP

331.80

189.00

356.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

524

0.67

JD SPORTS FASHION

745.00

606.50

841.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1672

0.52

45.75

38.00

65.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

282

1.24

KINGFISHER

292.60

254.10

305.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

442

0.92

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

395.00

312.20

400.40

Neutral

Buy

582

0.64

58.00

42.00

71.00

Buy

Buy

85

1.04

304.00

160.00

362.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1417

0.47

NEXT

4311.00

2896.00

4408.00

Neutral

Neutral

4128

0.66

TED BAKER

1260.00

830.00

1354.00

Neutral

Sell

649

0.55

68.00

32.13

68.00

Neutral

Sell

51

1.48

DARTY

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP


MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

146.50

124.00

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
118

0.45

CONSORT MEDICAL

795.00

584.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

581

0.40

OPTOS

157.25

145.75

264.00

Neutral

Neutral

168

1.20

SMITH & NEPHEW

727.50

580.00

768.50

Neutral

Sell

652

0.41

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

665.00

557.00

720.50

Neutral

Neutral

650

0.43

HEADLAM GROUP

344.00

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

305

0.92

82.50

55.25

97.00

Neutral

Buy

107

0.75

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ARM HOLDINGS

868.00

469.00

971.50

Neutral

Sell

506

0.74

CSR

488.70

194.60

502.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1164

1.16

FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Target

Beta

52.50

23.50

83.25

Neutral

Sell

45

0.90

428.30

383.50

705.00

Neutral

Neutral

464

1.09

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

124.40

122.80

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

607

0.94

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

198.25

165.75

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-397

0.91

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1317.00

1019.00

1374.00

Neutral

Sell

-689

0.54

AMLIN

411.60

312.90

431.50

Neutral

Sell

-3004

0.46

BEAZLEY

210.60

132.50

219.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

2532

0.59

CATLIN GROUP

505.50

399.00

540.00

Neutral

Buy

748

0.29

HISCOX

544.00

379.26

574.05

Neutral

Strong Buy

2046

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

844.00

659.00

864.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2853

0.31

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

108.40

97.65

136.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1647

0.40

NOVAE GROUP

450.00

345.00

475.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

1866

0.47

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2270.00

1944.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3694

1.00

ENTERPRISE INNS

103.00

55.50

114.70

Neutral

Sell

71

1.59

TUI TRAVEL

303.40

158.00

330.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

754

0.99

FULLER SMITH 'A'

810.00

700.00

820.00

Neutral

Sell

624

0.38

GREENE KING

671.50

474.30

723.50

Neutral

Sell

583

0.91

LADBROKES

189.00

152.70

243.10

Neutral

Sell

173

0.93

1859.00

1396.63

2039.00

Neutral

Sell

1550

1.17

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

550.00

455.40

582.50

Neutral

Neutral

585

1.38

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

316.60

217.40

350.10

Neutral

Sell

284

1.09

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

136.00

91.90

158.80

Neutral

Sell

99

1.25

10.75

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

44

1.25

156.50

111.00

177.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

481

1.00
0.74

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

460.80

269.20

474.80

Neutral

Sell

304

WETHERSPOON (JD)

542.00

371.30

548.50

Neutral

Buy

703

0.69

WHITBREAD

2417.00

1786.00

2692.00

Neutral

Sell

1845

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

389.90

239.86

411.17

Neutral

Sell

249

0.86

MARSTON'S

134.50

94.40

143.00

Neutral

Sell

26

1.20

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AVIVA

295.00

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1136

1.24

CHESNARA

231.50

155.25

250.00

Neutral

Buy

343

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

167.40

106.00

175.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

284

1.70

OLD MUTUAL

198.30

138.70

211.40

Neutral

Sell

168

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

1019.00

660.00

1155.00

Neutral

Sell

913

1.70

490.70

303.40

537.00

Neutral

Sell

413

0.85

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Under Valued

Media & Entertainment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

112.50

102.00

146.50

Neutral

Sell

-535

0.36

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

832.50

656.00

899.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1526

0.54

45.50

28.50

60.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

136

1.01

DAILY MAIL 'A'

690.00

363.50

722.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2969

1.12

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

961.00

672.50

1001.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6548

0.98

INFORMA

484.10

340.00

537.00

Neutral

Sell

-63

1.53

ITE GROUP

261.20

180.00

289.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

217

1.44

ITV

124.50

69.45

132.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1170

1.54
1.26

CENTAUR MEDIA

JOHNSTON PRESS

15.25

4.88

16.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1548

1132.00

1111.00

1294.00

Neutral

Buy

283

0.62

78.50

36.25

82.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2323

0.79

277.50

265.00

377.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

785

0.15

33.25

26.85

33.35

Neutral

Sell

-535

0.52

STV GROUP

133.25

81.50

146.88

Neutral

Sell

245

0.78

ST.IVES

134.25

67.50

139.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

672

1.49

92.00

25.50

121.25

Neutral

Sell

-244

1.57

UBM

682.50

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1615

1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP

151.50

82.00

164.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1188

0.85

WPP

1027.00

743.00

1092.00

Neutral

Sell

-451

1.34

HIBU

0.37

0.26

3.91

Neutral

Strong Buy

723

1.07

PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS

TRINITY MIRROR

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1553.00

1553.00

2412.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2617

1.75

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

215.00

215.00

320.00

Neutral

Buy

250

0.99

ANTOFAGASTA

906.00

906.00

1381.00

Neutral

Sell

855

1.43

1779.00

1681.00

2236.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3081

1.45

ANGLO AMERICAN

BHP BILLITON

259.40

240.84

564.35

Neutral

Sell

20

2.03

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

LONMIN

4566.00

4545.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

2644

0.34

RIO TINTO

2854.50

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Neutral

3102

1.51

5.50

3.75

22.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

148

0.89

832.50

1298.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2090

2.21

785.80

1205.00

Neutral

Sell

914

1.88

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA

967.00

Under Valued

Oil & Gas


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1037.50

1000.50

1451.00

Buy

Neutral

1125

0.81

BP

440.70

391.95

475.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1444

1.05

CAIRN ENERGY

283.20

248.20

349.00

Neutral

Sell

-25

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B

7.85

7.66

12.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

13

0.90

806.00

688.00

954.00

Buy

Sell

426

1.32
1.36

67.50

55.00

147.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

277

355.00

321.30

401.20

Buy

Sell

267

1.45

2147.00

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

10596

0.86

SOCO INTERNATIONAL

368.50

254.90

404.30

Neutral

Sell

231

0.52

TULLOW OIL

982.50

982.50

1557.00

Buy

Sell

811

1.05

WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

803.00

651.50

879.50

Neutral

Sell

756

1.36

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

111.00

102.70

146.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

249

PZ CUSSONS

385.30

297.20

415.60

Neutral

Sell

316

0.69

4655.00

3300.00

4812.00

Neutral

Neutral

4696

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Beta
0.83

Under Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.41

0.37

3.88

Buy

Sell

-2

1.01

3297.50

2591.00

3340.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

7630

0.47

BTG

343.80

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Sell

155

0.62

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

745.50

444.50

780.00

Neutral

Sell

670

0.26

1607.00

1317.50

1630.50

Neutral

Neutral

1759

0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

1.63

1.55

4.30

Buy

Sell

-0

0.65

PHYTOPHARM

1.23

1.23

12.75

Buy

Buy

0.94

1923.00

1727.00

2153.00

Neutral

Sell

1353

0.65

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.


ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

SHIRE

Target

Beta

SKYEPHARMA

45.25

41.00

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-91

0.71

VERNALIS

22.63

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Buy

32

0.90

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BIG YELLOW GROUP

385.10

274.50

387.50

Neutral

Sell

-535

1.15

BRITISH LAND

574.00

475.40

586.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1526

1.03

33.75

22.75

34.25

Sell

Strong Buy

136

0.82

873.00

595.00

880.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2969

0.69

DERWENT LONDON

2281.00

1708.00

2281.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6548

1.20

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

152.00

121.75

175.00

Neutral

Sell

-63

0.97

GRAINGER

134.50

83.10

140.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

217

1.54

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

518.00

345.60

521.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1170

1.06
1.16

CAPITAL & REGIONAL


CLS HOLDINGS

HAMMERSON

510.50

408.00

525.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1548

HELICAL BAR

244.75

164.00

251.00

Neutral

Buy

283

0.75

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

854.50

704.00

859.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2323

1.15

INTU PROPERTIES

339.90

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

785

1.08

MCKAY SECURITIES

135.00

127.00

145.00

Neutral

Sell

-535

0.72

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

370.50

320.00

390.00

Neutral

Sell

245

0.41

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

337.75

312.00

364.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

672

0.35

64.75

32.50

70.00

Sell

Sell

-244

1.17
0.74

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.


SAVILLS

515.50

300.80

599.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1615

SHAFTESBURY

604.50

492.00

608.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1188

1.03

SEGRO

252.80

209.40

271.00

Neutral

Sell

-451

1.70

ST MODWEN PROPS.

261.00

145.50

280.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

723

1.55

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

197.50

147.00

215.00

Neutral

Sell

-10

1.05

UNITE GROUP

309.00

180.25

330.00

Neutral

Sell

33

1.75

1.38

1.00

2.75

Sell

Sell

-991

1.01

373.50

213.25

374.10

Neutral

Sell

1.02

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

113.00

111.00

162.00

Neutral

Neutral

118

0.76

2074.00

1469.00

2322.00

Neutral

Sell

1264

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

540.00

292.40

567.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1304

1.01

KOFAX

335.00

240.00

335.00

Neutral

Sell

311

1.12

25.00

18.25

25.50

Neutral

Sell

23

0.83

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

663.00

426.17

706.00

Neutral

Buy

927

0.79

PHOENIX IT GROUP

140.25

131.00

231.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

301

0.74

77.50

70.25

89.00

Neutral

Sell

-87

0.53

1774.00

1275.00

1970.00

Neutral

Buy

2003

0.77

338.70

247.70

352.10

Neutral

Buy

400

0.72

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

406.80

237.30

441.90

Neutral

Sell

172

BREWIN DOLPHIN

220.90

136.30

222.00

Sell

Sell

125

0.72

10475.50

9250.00

11105.00

Neutral

Neutral

10344

0.83

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.08

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

404.00

247.50

404.00

Sell

Sell

176

0.97

CHARLES TAYLOR

169.00

132.00

190.00

Neutral

Sell

105

0.69

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1033.00

673.50

1107.00

Neutral

Sell

192

0.87

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

95.50

65.90

110.40

Neutral

Neutral

100

0.89

3.13

0.55

3.70

Sell

Strong Buy

26

0.68

HENDERSON GROUP

156.90

90.55

171.00

Neutral

Sell

51

1.44

ICAP

284.70

281.40

384.00

Neutral

Sell

202

1.07
1.68

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

404.60

227.30

427.60

Neutral

Sell

218

INVESTEC

432.10

310.40

513.50

Neutral

Sell

89

1.55

1282.00

930.00

1411.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3857

1.12

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP

105.60

63.25

111.10

Neutral

Sell

96

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

MAN GROUP

1494.00

1151.00

1551.00

Neutral

Sell

1133

0.73

SCHRODERS

2161.00

1166.00

2212.00

Neutral

Sell

1284

1.31

SCHRODERS NV

1730.00

966.00

1785.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

4171

1.27

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

219.50

157.75

242.50

Neutral

Buy

287

0.93

1772.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1246

1.03

AGGREKO

Target

Beta

AMEC

994.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Buy

1102

1.04

ASHTEAD GROUP

584.50

212.20

635.00

Neutral

Sell

304

1.62

1028.00

793.50

1106.00

Neutral

Sell

643

0.48

535.00

317.00

535.00

Sell

Buy

777

0.78

1267.00

990.00

1320.00

Neutral

Sell

797

0.55

UK MAIL GROUP

437.50

214.00

445.00

Neutral

Neutral

432

0.38

CAPITA

860.00

602.00

913.50

Neutral

Sell

501

0.50

51.00

25.34

53.50

Neutral

Buy

66

0.78

COMPASS GROUP

827.50

616.00

852.50

Neutral

Sell

587

0.74

BERENDSEN

734.00

462.00

812.00

Neutral

Buy

946

1.04

DE LA RUE

920.50

891.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

584

#NA

BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

DIGNITY

1333.00

803.50

1435.00

Neutral

Sell

755

0.21

DIPLOMA

546.50

417.00

627.50

Neutral

Sell

469

0.95

ELECTROCOMP.

232.40

195.20

265.00

Neutral

Buy

310

1.02

FILTRONA

699.00

428.00

744.00

Neutral

Sell

335

1.10

G4S

295.90

240.00

307.50

Neutral

Neutral

282

0.58

92.70

66.40

101.20

Neutral

Buy

117

1.09

HOMESERVE

194.50

137.50

252.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

469

0.93

INTERSERVE

478.00

271.40

510.50

Neutral

Buy

666

1.27

3328.00

2406.00

3451.00

Neutral

Sell

1398

0.77

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP

44.00

26.50

45.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

91

1.18

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

31.50

21.25

39.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

53

0.72

MENZIES (JOHN)

681.00

542.00

789.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1263

1.43

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

362.40

341.40

451.80

Neutral

Sell

309

1.41

MITIE GROUP

265.20

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

332

0.55

92.00

91.00

156.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

232

0.34

PAYPOINT

880.00

605.00

912.50

Neutral

Sell

667

0.70

PREMIER FARNELL

204.70

153.20

236.30

Neutral

Buy

273

1.32

REGUS

153.00

82.65

169.00

Neutral

Sell

104

1.44

94.80

69.40

100.70

Neutral

Sell

54

1.24

506.00

394.28

547.50

Neutral

Buy

614

0.91

HAYS

INTERTEK GROUP

OFFICE2OFFICE

RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO

407.00

304.50

431.00

Neutral

Buy

456

0.85

ROBERT WALTERS

225.75

176.25

264.63

Neutral

Buy

301

1.23

RPC GROUP

382.00

348.30

477.00

Neutral

Buy

518

0.77

RPS GROUP

251.20

197.00

274.20

Neutral

Neutral

240

1.50

SERCO GROUP

606.50

509.50

635.50

Neutral

Sell

561

0.59

SHANKS GROUP

75.00

74.50

98.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

163

1.46

SPEEDY HIRE

46.75

22.25

50.00

Neutral

Neutral

51

1.25

146.00

73.25

149.00

Neutral

Sell

50

0.56

55.63

39.50

59.00

Neutral

Neutral

59

0.92

334.00

234.75

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

601

0.86

74.50

42.00

75.00

Sell

Strong Buy

176

0.79

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

274.80

200.70

281.70

Neutral

Buy

326

41.85

27.28

42.81

Neutral

Strong Buy

81

0.69

687.50

390.80

710.50

Neutral

Sell

586

0.53

Beta
0.90

82.00

67.00

85.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

127

1.24

1150.00

682.50

1152.00

Sell

Sell

714

0.11

189.25

154.45

192.00

Neutral

Sell

163

0.54

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

245.70

178.00

269.00

Neutral

Sell

198

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

382.00

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Buy

453

0.99

CLARKSON

1633.00

1150.00

1645.00

Sell

Sell

1474

0.81

EASYJET

1140.00

481.20

1149.00

Neutral

Sell

664

0.74

214.40

175.70

260.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

550

0.90

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

1102.00

535.00

1102.00

Sell

Sell

390

0.77

GO-AHEAD GROUP

1525.00

1086.00

1540.00

Neutral

Buy

1831

0.89

FIRST GROUP

Target

Beta
1.30

NATIONAL EXPRESS

191.00

164.50

230.50

Neutral

Buy

248

1.34

NORTHGATE

312.00

159.60

350.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

609

1.41

STAGECOACH GROUP

294.90

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

350

0.90

56.50

31.00

78.50

Sell

Sell

-41

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

383.00

306.30

383.00

Neutral

Buy

505

0.46

NATIONAL GRID

790.00

641.00

803.00

Neutral

Buy

872

0.49

PENNON GROUP

661.50

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

810

0.58

SSE

1536.00

1294.00

1536.00

Neutral

Buy

1813

0.42

SEVERN TRENT

1760.00

1513.00

1796.00

Neutral

Sell

1574

0.34

740.00

601.50

747.50

Neutral

Sell

698

0.50

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

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