Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
18 April 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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18 April 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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18 April 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
376.10
270.90
397.30
Neutral
Buy
561
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
257.40
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
311
0.66
COBHAM
235.30
190.10
248.10
Neutral
Buy
279
0.83
MEGGITT
469.70
364.30
494.20
Neutral
Sell
396
1.32
1125.00
788.92
1135.00
Neutral
Neutral
1070
1.08
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1236.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1018
0.71
1571.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Neutral
1499
0.50
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
245.70
173.60
285.00
Neutral
Neutral
Target
239
2.00
INCHCAPE
499.90
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
487
1.48
LOOKERS
95.50
56.50
100.50
Neutral
Neutral
102
1.24
PENDRAGON
22.25
13.25
25.00
Neutral
Buy
33
1.12
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
290.30
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
49
Beta
1.93
671.00
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1193
1.17
1.87
48.23
25.29
55.68
Sell
Strong Buy
75
283.20
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
36
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1609.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Sell
1012
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
535.50
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
576
0.55
DIAGEO
1974.50
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1739
0.55
SABMILLER
3342.50
2348.50
3552.50
Neutral
Buy
3851
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
275.40
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
620
CARCLO
375.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
370
0.74
2560.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2059
1.04
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
Target
Beta
#NA
243.00
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
335
1.00
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2370.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11075
1.44
VICTREX
ELEMENTIS
1531.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1411
1.13
SYNTHOMER
180.70
127.40
239.50
Neutral
Buy
203
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
220.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
357
0.99
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
84.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
231
Beta
0.52
BALFOUR BEATTY
242.20
225.70
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
959
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
283.10
114.00
288.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
438
1.50
BELLWAY
1301.00
660.00
1327.00
Neutral
Buy
1891
1.10
1995.00
1177.00
2093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3280
0.63
BOOT (HENRY)
175.00
115.50
175.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
339
0.83
733.00
399.30
751.00
Neutral
Sell
548
1.14
CARILLION
275.00
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
781
1.10
CLARKE (T)
52.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
264
0.82
291.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
0.56
1320.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
819
1.14
910.00
579.00
965.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1676
0.99
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
818.00
348.25
848.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1987
1.25
1217.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3333
0.94
70.00
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
199
1.07
MARSHALLS
127.37
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
280
1.37
560.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3252
0.86
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
16.25
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
34
1.11
1106.00
532.00
1132.00
Neutral
Neutral
1108
1.15
REDROW
199.40
107.30
206.00
Neutral
Buy
285
1.05
SIG
149.00
82.30
162.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
459
1.74
5.33
3.88
17.75
Sell
Strong Buy
49
0.89
88.60
40.28
93.50
Neutral
Neutral
92
1.58
TRAVIS PERKINS
1420.00
906.50
1465.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2558
1.97
WOLSELEY
3156.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5089
1.43
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1235.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
764
0.78
641.50
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
839
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
116.00
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
1.31
INVENSYS
341.20
186.10
366.80
Neutral
Neutral
342
1.42
LAIRD
213.80
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
84
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1557.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1168
1.01
RENISHAW
1667.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2357
1.26
SPECTRIS
2205.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Neutral
2191
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.21
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.83
TT ELECTRONICS
161.00
114.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
402
1.59
XAAR
500.00
185.00
500.00
Sell
Sell
231
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
78.50
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
94
1.26
BODYCOTE
481.40
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
482
1.61
CASTINGS
330.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
667
0.99
VESUVIUS
327.10
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
474
2.19
FENNER
366.20
329.30
456.50
Neutral
Buy
522
1.42
HALMA
480.00
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
377
0.76
430.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
306
1.37
1193.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Buy
1329
1.40
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
250.90
220.30
332.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
514
1.82
2659.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2434
0.99
240.90
177.00
253.10
Neutral
Sell
200
1.65
40.50
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Buy
46
0.73
2520.00
1900.00
2734.00
Neutral
Sell
2194
0.84
VITEC GROUP
621.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
556
1.40
WEIR GROUP
2136.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
1926
1.39
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
457.00
449.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
696
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
279.30
248.60
298.30
Neutral
Sell
197
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
377.40
283.50
387.20
Neutral
Sell
219
0.58
TESCO
369.75
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
280
0.69
74.00
18.88
78.75
Neutral
Sell
53
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1821.00
1167.00
1931.00
Neutral
Buy
2075
0.61
CRANSWICK
1043.00
732.50
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2054
0.49
DAIRY CREST
434.40
290.40
444.00
Neutral
Buy
486
0.92
DEVRO
335.60
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
512
0.31
72.50
54.50
170.00
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
829.00
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1537
0.70
2760.00
2007.00
2831.00
Neutral
Neutral
2740
0.57
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18 April 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.50
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.68
409.60
224.40
429.30
Neutral
Sell
360
0.53
1289.00
1000.00
1536.00
Neutral
Sell
965
1.27
618.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
306
0.94
34.54
12.67
35.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
84
1.50
144.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
-22
1.08
0.99
Target
Beta
28.00
19.50
44.25
Sell
Strong Buy
131
HALFORDS GROUP
331.80
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
524
0.67
JD SPORTS FASHION
745.00
606.50
841.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1672
0.52
45.75
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
1.24
KINGFISHER
292.60
254.10
305.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
442
0.92
395.00
312.20
400.40
Neutral
Buy
582
0.64
58.00
42.00
71.00
Buy
Buy
85
1.04
304.00
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1417
0.47
NEXT
4311.00
2896.00
4408.00
Neutral
Neutral
4128
0.66
TED BAKER
1260.00
830.00
1354.00
Neutral
Sell
649
0.55
68.00
32.13
68.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.50
124.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
118
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
795.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
581
0.40
OPTOS
157.25
145.75
264.00
Neutral
Neutral
168
1.20
727.50
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
652
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
665.00
557.00
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
650
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
344.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
305
0.92
82.50
55.25
97.00
Neutral
Buy
107
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
868.00
469.00
971.50
Neutral
Sell
506
0.74
CSR
488.70
194.60
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1164
1.16
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
52.50
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
45
0.90
428.30
383.50
705.00
Neutral
Neutral
464
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
124.40
122.80
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
607
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
198.25
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-397
0.91
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1317.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-689
0.54
AMLIN
411.60
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
-3004
0.46
BEAZLEY
210.60
132.50
219.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
2532
0.59
CATLIN GROUP
505.50
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Buy
748
0.29
HISCOX
544.00
379.26
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2046
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
844.00
659.00
864.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2853
0.31
108.40
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1647
0.40
NOVAE GROUP
450.00
345.00
475.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1866
0.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2270.00
1944.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3694
1.00
ENTERPRISE INNS
103.00
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Sell
71
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
303.40
158.00
330.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
754
0.99
810.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
624
0.38
GREENE KING
671.50
474.30
723.50
Neutral
Sell
583
0.91
LADBROKES
189.00
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Sell
173
0.93
1859.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1550
1.17
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
550.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
585
1.38
316.60
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
284
1.09
136.00
91.90
158.80
Neutral
Sell
99
1.25
10.75
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
44
1.25
156.50
111.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
481
1.00
0.74
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
460.80
269.20
474.80
Neutral
Sell
304
WETHERSPOON (JD)
542.00
371.30
548.50
Neutral
Buy
703
0.69
WHITBREAD
2417.00
1786.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1845
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
389.90
239.86
411.17
Neutral
Sell
249
0.86
MARSTON'S
134.50
94.40
143.00
Neutral
Sell
26
1.20
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AVIVA
295.00
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1136
1.24
CHESNARA
231.50
155.25
250.00
Neutral
Buy
343
0.70
167.40
106.00
175.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
284
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
198.30
138.70
211.40
Neutral
Sell
168
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1019.00
660.00
1155.00
Neutral
Sell
913
1.70
490.70
303.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
413
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
112.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-535
0.36
832.50
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1526
0.54
45.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
136
1.01
690.00
363.50
722.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2969
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
961.00
672.50
1001.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6548
0.98
INFORMA
484.10
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-63
1.53
ITE GROUP
261.20
180.00
289.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
1.44
ITV
124.50
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1170
1.54
1.26
CENTAUR MEDIA
JOHNSTON PRESS
15.25
4.88
16.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1548
1132.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
283
0.62
78.50
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2323
0.79
277.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
0.15
33.25
26.85
33.35
Neutral
Sell
-535
0.52
STV GROUP
133.25
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
245
0.78
ST.IVES
134.25
67.50
139.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
672
1.49
92.00
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-244
1.57
UBM
682.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1615
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
151.50
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1188
0.85
WPP
1027.00
743.00
1092.00
Neutral
Sell
-451
1.34
HIBU
0.37
0.26
3.91
Neutral
Strong Buy
723
1.07
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1553.00
1553.00
2412.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2617
1.75
215.00
215.00
320.00
Neutral
Buy
250
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
906.00
906.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
855
1.43
1779.00
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3081
1.45
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
259.40
240.84
564.35
Neutral
Sell
20
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
LONMIN
4566.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2644
0.34
RIO TINTO
2854.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Neutral
3102
1.51
5.50
3.75
22.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
148
0.89
832.50
1298.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2090
2.21
785.80
1205.00
Neutral
Sell
914
1.88
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
967.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1037.50
1000.50
1451.00
Buy
Neutral
1125
0.81
BP
440.70
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1444
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
283.20
248.20
349.00
Neutral
Sell
-25
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
7.85
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
13
0.90
806.00
688.00
954.00
Buy
Sell
426
1.32
1.36
67.50
55.00
147.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
355.00
321.30
401.20
Buy
Sell
267
1.45
2147.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
10596
0.86
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
368.50
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
231
0.52
TULLOW OIL
982.50
982.50
1557.00
Buy
Sell
811
1.05
803.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
756
1.36
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
111.00
102.70
146.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
249
PZ CUSSONS
385.30
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
316
0.69
4655.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4696
0.36
Beta
0.83
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.41
0.37
3.88
Buy
Sell
-2
1.01
3297.50
2591.00
3340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7630
0.47
BTG
343.80
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
155
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
745.50
444.50
780.00
Neutral
Sell
670
0.26
1607.00
1317.50
1630.50
Neutral
Neutral
1759
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.63
1.55
4.30
Buy
Sell
-0
0.65
PHYTOPHARM
1.23
1.23
12.75
Buy
Buy
0.94
1923.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1353
0.65
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
45.25
41.00
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-91
0.71
VERNALIS
22.63
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Buy
32
0.90
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
385.10
274.50
387.50
Neutral
Sell
-535
1.15
BRITISH LAND
574.00
475.40
586.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1526
1.03
33.75
22.75
34.25
Sell
Strong Buy
136
0.82
873.00
595.00
880.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2969
0.69
DERWENT LONDON
2281.00
1708.00
2281.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6548
1.20
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
152.00
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-63
0.97
GRAINGER
134.50
83.10
140.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
1.54
518.00
345.60
521.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1170
1.06
1.16
HAMMERSON
510.50
408.00
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1548
HELICAL BAR
244.75
164.00
251.00
Neutral
Buy
283
0.75
854.50
704.00
859.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2323
1.15
INTU PROPERTIES
339.90
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
1.08
MCKAY SECURITIES
135.00
127.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-535
0.72
370.50
320.00
390.00
Neutral
Sell
245
0.41
337.75
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
672
0.35
64.75
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-244
1.17
0.74
515.50
300.80
599.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1615
SHAFTESBURY
604.50
492.00
608.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1188
1.03
SEGRO
252.80
209.40
271.00
Neutral
Sell
-451
1.70
ST MODWEN PROPS.
261.00
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
723
1.55
197.50
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-10
1.05
UNITE GROUP
309.00
180.25
330.00
Neutral
Sell
33
1.75
1.38
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-991
1.01
373.50
213.25
374.10
Neutral
Sell
1.02
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
113.00
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
118
0.76
2074.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1264
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
540.00
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1304
1.01
KOFAX
335.00
240.00
335.00
Neutral
Sell
311
1.12
25.00
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Sell
23
0.83
663.00
426.17
706.00
Neutral
Buy
927
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
140.25
131.00
231.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
301
0.74
77.50
70.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
-87
0.53
1774.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Buy
2003
0.77
338.70
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
400
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
406.80
237.30
441.90
Neutral
Sell
172
BREWIN DOLPHIN
220.90
136.30
222.00
Sell
Sell
125
0.72
10475.50
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Neutral
10344
0.83
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.08
404.00
247.50
404.00
Sell
Sell
176
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
169.00
132.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
105
0.69
1033.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
192
0.87
95.50
65.90
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
100
0.89
3.13
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
26
0.68
HENDERSON GROUP
156.90
90.55
171.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.44
ICAP
284.70
281.40
384.00
Neutral
Sell
202
1.07
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
404.60
227.30
427.60
Neutral
Sell
218
INVESTEC
432.10
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
89
1.55
1282.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3857
1.12
105.60
63.25
111.10
Neutral
Sell
96
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
MAN GROUP
1494.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1133
0.73
SCHRODERS
2161.00
1166.00
2212.00
Neutral
Sell
1284
1.31
SCHRODERS NV
1730.00
966.00
1785.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4171
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
219.50
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
287
0.93
1772.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1246
1.03
AGGREKO
Target
Beta
AMEC
994.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Buy
1102
1.04
ASHTEAD GROUP
584.50
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
304
1.62
1028.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
643
0.48
535.00
317.00
535.00
Sell
Buy
777
0.78
1267.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
797
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
437.50
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
432
0.38
CAPITA
860.00
602.00
913.50
Neutral
Sell
501
0.50
51.00
25.34
53.50
Neutral
Buy
66
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
827.50
616.00
852.50
Neutral
Sell
587
0.74
BERENDSEN
734.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
946
1.04
DE LA RUE
920.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
584
#NA
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
DIGNITY
1333.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
755
0.21
DIPLOMA
546.50
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
469
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
232.40
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
310
1.02
FILTRONA
699.00
428.00
744.00
Neutral
Sell
335
1.10
G4S
295.90
240.00
307.50
Neutral
Neutral
282
0.58
92.70
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
117
1.09
HOMESERVE
194.50
137.50
252.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
469
0.93
INTERSERVE
478.00
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
666
1.27
3328.00
2406.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1398
0.77
44.00
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
91
1.18
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
31.50
21.25
39.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
53
0.72
MENZIES (JOHN)
681.00
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1263
1.43
362.40
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
309
1.41
MITIE GROUP
265.20
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
332
0.55
92.00
91.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
0.34
PAYPOINT
880.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
667
0.70
PREMIER FARNELL
204.70
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
273
1.32
REGUS
153.00
82.65
169.00
Neutral
Sell
104
1.44
94.80
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
54
1.24
506.00
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Buy
614
0.91
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO
407.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
456
0.85
ROBERT WALTERS
225.75
176.25
264.63
Neutral
Buy
301
1.23
RPC GROUP
382.00
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
518
0.77
RPS GROUP
251.20
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
240
1.50
SERCO GROUP
606.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
561
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
75.00
74.50
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
163
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
46.75
22.25
50.00
Neutral
Neutral
51
1.25
146.00
73.25
149.00
Neutral
Sell
50
0.56
55.63
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Neutral
59
0.92
334.00
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
601
0.86
74.50
42.00
75.00
Sell
Strong Buy
176
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
274.80
200.70
281.70
Neutral
Buy
326
41.85
27.28
42.81
Neutral
Strong Buy
81
0.69
687.50
390.80
710.50
Neutral
Sell
586
0.53
Beta
0.90
82.00
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
127
1.24
1150.00
682.50
1152.00
Sell
Sell
714
0.11
189.25
154.45
192.00
Neutral
Sell
163
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
245.70
178.00
269.00
Neutral
Sell
198
382.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
453
0.99
CLARKSON
1633.00
1150.00
1645.00
Sell
Sell
1474
0.81
EASYJET
1140.00
481.20
1149.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.74
214.40
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
550
0.90
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1102.00
535.00
1102.00
Sell
Sell
390
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1525.00
1086.00
1540.00
Neutral
Buy
1831
0.89
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.30
NATIONAL EXPRESS
191.00
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
248
1.34
NORTHGATE
312.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
609
1.41
STAGECOACH GROUP
294.90
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
350
0.90
56.50
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-41
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
383.00
306.30
383.00
Neutral
Buy
505
0.46
NATIONAL GRID
790.00
641.00
803.00
Neutral
Buy
872
0.49
PENNON GROUP
661.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
810
0.58
SSE
1536.00
1294.00
1536.00
Neutral
Buy
1813
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1760.00
1513.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1574
0.34
740.00
601.50
747.50
Neutral
Sell
698
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
18 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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