Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Country Recommendation
Overweight China, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand, The Philippines
Global Emerging Markets Research, Foreign Exchange, and Commodities Joyce Chang Global Emerging Markets
Key Changes
Market performance to 2 July 2008 Year to date: MSCI Emerging Markets -15.1% underperforming MSCI World by 1.5% Top market YTD in US$ terms: Argentina, Morocco and Israel Bottom three markets YTD in US$ terms: Turkey, Philippines and India JPMorgan's revisions to 2008 Real GDP growth forecasts for the US Full year : 1.7% [1.6%] 2Q08 : 2.0% [1.0%] 3Q08 : 1.0% [1.5%] JPMorgan's revisions to 2009 Real GDP growth forecasts Negative: Latin America 3.9%[4.0%], Brazil 3.8% [4.0%]
Index
Market Performance Market Drivers 2008 Index Targets Cross-section Earnings Growth Earnings Revisions Regional Valuation Sector-Country PE Matrix Valuation Distribution Equities relative to Bonds Economic Momentum Policy Rates Forecast Currency Forecasts Credit Risk Emerging Market Balance Sheets Emerging Market in Perspective Emerging Capital Market Index Weightings
Page #
2 3 4 5 6,7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14,15 16 17 18 19 20
Valuations MSCI China is currently trading at a 12m fwd PE of 12.8x, which is a premium of 6.7% to MSCI EM, as compared to a premium of 42% at the beginning of the year. JPMorgan's revisions to official interest rate forecasts MSCI India is currently trading at a 12m fwd PE of 13.6x, which is a premium of 13.3% to Turkey: Next move 17 Jul 08 +50bp [3Q08 +50bp ] ; Dec 08 level 17.25% [16.75%] MSCI EM, as compared to a premium of 64% at the beginning of the year. Peru: Next move 10 Jul 08 +25bp [4Q08 +25bp] ; Dec 08 level 6.25% [6.00%]
See page 21 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. JPMorgan does and seeks to do business with the companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
http://mm.jpmorgan.com
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
-19.4% -11.9% 3.6% -25.6% -9.6% -16.6% -13.9% -0.4% -18.1% -7.2% -13.6%
-17.4% -8.3% 7.9% -28.0% -12.6% -16.0% -13.6% 3.7% -20.0% -4.2% -12.4%
-25.6% -17.8% -1.2% -26.6% -4.7% -19.3% -24.4% 0.1% -18.5% -9.9% -16.1%
-17.1% -12.0% -7.4% -12.8% -9.7% -6.1% -12.7% -17.9% -14.2% -7.0% -12.4% 5.0%
-22.7% -13.8% -23.0% -27.5% -5.3% -36.1% -12.3% -24.0% -23.7% -33.6% -24.0%
-6.4% 1.1% 14.7% -7.6% -20.0% 12.2% 7.1% -8.2% 11.5% 2.1%
-31.0% -24.9% -0.4% -27.8% 1.1% -25.0% -6.6% 17.3% -22.4% 6.0% -8.9%
-22.7% -13.8% -23.0% -27.5% -5.3% -36.1% -12.3% -24.0% -23.7% -33.6% -24.0%
-2.2% -8.9% -32.1% -19.5% -27.3% 4.6% -8.1% -16.6% -16.9% -13.5% -10.9%
-39.4% -12.6% -25.4% -26.0% -37.7% -37.6% -39.0% -25.6% -34.6% -28.7% 6.1%
-37.6% -15.0% -26.3% -48.8% 6.3% -50.6% -2.6% -40.7% -46.0% -46.8% -35.4% -9.6%
-26.2% -5.5% -19.5% -25.2% -30.0% -34.9% -14.6% -18.9% -22.1% 1.2%
-18.9% -3.5% -10.0% -13.5% -31.7% -17.2% -7.9% -18.9% -12.9% -11.9% Czech Republic
-28.4% -3.1% 37.5% -26.9% -9.4% -32.1% -24.5% -14.0% -11.6% 1.9%
-34.6%
-40.4% -34.3%
Argentina
Colombia
EMEA
South Africa
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecoms Utilities Region / Country Benchmark Change vs dollar
-6.4% 1.1% 14.7% -7.6% -20.0% 12.2% 7.1% -8.2% 11.5% 2.1%
-12.6% -1.2% 10.9% -8.3% -23.3% 12.2% 9.1% 6.9% 15.8% 3.9% 9.5%
-16.8% -26.0% -20.4% -30.7% 35.0% -17.8% 0.1% -7.8% -3.9% 19.4% -33.3% 34.0% 4.0% 0.7% -16.2% 18.7% -0.6% 11.8% 57.3% -30.0% 8.7% -12.1%
2.5% 1.8%
-31.0% -24.9% -0.4% -27.8% 1.1% -25.0% -6.6% 17.3% -22.4% 6.0% -8.9%
-14.8% -17.3% 31.6% -26.2% -26.0% -20.0% -32.9% 18.0% -6.9% -2.1% -14.3%
-34.7% -24.7% -6.0% 1.3% -16.9% -4.3% 54.7% 9.4% 6.1% 15.2%
-34.6% -35.9% -27.9% -45.4% -33.4% -26.0% -7.8% -3.2% -25.9% 14.5% -17.1% -30.6% -21.7%
-37.0%
Egypt
Brazil
Israel
Chile
Peru
26.8%
-22.4% 14.9%
-8.8% 18.2%
8.0% 14.9%
Notes Source: Bloomberg, MSCI. Regional headings first sorted by regional weights in the MSCI EMF and then country headings from left to right by relative weights within the MSCI EMF Indices: Regions in US$ and countries in local currency. Local currency movements against the dollar : appreciation / (depreciation) Country and sector cross sections in italic blue have outperformed their indices by more than 2%. Shaded areas have underperformed their indices by more than 2%.
Updated as of Jul 2
Morocco
Hungary
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Turkey
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
Positive Equities discounting US recession Abating recession fears, fiscal package stimulating consumer spending Steepening yield curve, cheap valuations, stabilizing credit markets Valuations cheap, currency weakness, wage growth under control Corporate pricing power, rising asset prices, new credit cycle, reasonable valuations, interest rate rise Strong terms of trade, consumer tax cuts on the way, corporate pricing power China macro (currency revaluation, possible policy loosening), low real rates, reflation continues, strong corporate earnings growth, China investment flows Return of 'safe haven' status for Singapore, Banks stocks re-rating from better volume / margins, Property launches leading to real estate run up
Negative Recession like dynamics, credit crunch, inflation, risk aversion, high oil prices Sub-prime & housing issues, slower earnings growth, high oil prices and inflation Weakening growth indicators, negative earnings revisions, currency headwinds, high inflation and potential rate hike Potentially weaker consumer, slowdown in housing Cyclical earnings, recent weak manufacturing and yen volatility Strong currency headwinds for earnings, weak housing, bank funding costs and asset quality issues, commodity price risk, slowdown in economic activity post rate hikes, high inflation Property price increases concentrated in luxury end of the market, weak US equity outlook Higher food/fuel inflation, tightening policy, significant growth slowdown
India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Taiwan Thailand Brazil Czech Republic Hungary Mexico Poland Russia South Africa Turkey
Source: JPMorgan.
High inflation, widening current account deficit, depreciating Rupee, politics, expensive valuations, US slowdown impact on Indian IT Crowded carry trade, limited policy flexibility, high inflation trending upwards, increase in bond issuance to meet subsidies, interest rate tightening, higher real interest rates High inflation with slower economic growth, low domestic investment and consumption, fading positive impact from depreciation of KRW on export names Near term political uncertainty, limited GLC reform, accounting scandals, delays in 9 MP infrastructure projects Political risk, infrastructure issues, power deficit, fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation, interest rate tightening Global risks to affect risk appetite on emerging economies, food inflation, low liquidity, political noise, Middle east unrest, interest rate tightening High emerging market inflation to drag growth, high valuations across non-tech space Uncertainty on macro economic policy, politics, inflation Consensus overweight, fiscal relaxation, economy growing above potential, limited reform agenda, equity market heavy commodity concentration, Rate hike, Inflation Rich valuations. Political uncertainty, inflation HUF becoming more crowded. Lack of real buy-in on reform by Socialist party Still vulnerable to the US cycle and Inflation Rising input cost, margin pressure, hawkish central bank, local mutual fund redemptions Heavily skewed to commodity exposure, cost and wage growth, interest rate tightening Rand exchange rate wildcard, viewed as commodity play, tightening monetary policy, electricity outage, political uncertainity, cash flush SA corporate balance sheets Politics, central bank easing fully priced in to equity markets, declining earnings expectations, rising inflation expectations, large current account deficit
Updated as of Jul 2008
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Other Indices
Developed Markets Australia Singapore Hong Kong US UK Japan** MSCI Europe MSCI EMU Index used ASX 200 STI HSI S&P 500 FTSE 100 TOPIX MSCI Europe MSCI EMU 2-Jul-08 5095 2906 21704 1262 5426 1301 1218 183
Index Target 5900 3800 31500 1450 6400 1301 1410 216
Return 16 31 45 15 18 0 16 18
Forex Target 0.93 1.33 7.8 1.0 1.86 110 1.50* 1.50*
Return -3 2 0 0 -7 -4 -6 -6
Dividend Yield ## 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 2.0 0.8 2.0 2.0
US $ Returns 11 35 38 15 10 -4 9 11
Source: MSCI, Datastream, JPMorgan estimates Note: Local Index used shown in brackets. Index targets for US from JPMorgan's US Equity Strategy team and for UK, MSCI Europe and MSCI EMU from JPMorgan's European Equity Strategy team. # Note that we have not included the forecast 10% move in the Renminbi in the MSCI China forecast. ## Dividend yield is time-weighted to arrive at expected 2006 total USD returns. * Euro used for forex in MSCI Europe and MSCI EMU. ~ Consensus forecast is used for Pakistan Rupee ** No index target. The number herein refers to current index level. *** Emerging Market index target derived based on weighted calculations of individual countries' target returns ^ Forex return for Russia is zero as shares are traded in US$.
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com July 3, 2008
EPS Growth JPMorgan Consensus 2009 Median 2008 2009 17.6 17.0 16.7 22.0 13.5 7.0 9.3 14.8 14.1 14.1 9.1 14.6 11.9 19.1 20.8 35.5 27.8 30.6 26.9 27.0 -4.0 13.0 14.3 12.5 24.2 23.8 11.5 28.3 23.9 17.3 18.4 15.9 13.7 11.2 13.7 9.5 12.4 91.5 25.1 21.7 8.1 3.3 -8.3 10.8 EPS Growth JPMorgan Consensus 2009 Median 2008 2009 12.4 11.4 2.8 10.3 4.8 9.5 -8.2 8.7 10.3 35.4 26.8 6.7 31.1 52.5 50.9 32.8 16.8 15.0 2.1 9.7 NA NA NA NA 18.3 10.7 16.3 17.8 NA NA NA NA 16.3 583.5 151.8 16.3 12.1 -29.2 -39.7 8.2 -2.1 -6.0 -8.7 0.6 EPS Growth JPMorgan Consensus 2009 Median 2008 2009 9.8 16.8 114.3 8.7 11.1 23.0 23.3 12.2 8.2 70.6 70.6 40.3 15.7 2.5 11.0 7.9 13.4 15.1 -301.2 14.9 NA NA NA NA -22.7 136.7 136.7 -22.7 NA NA NA NA -12.2 -8.4 -13.7 -3.4 -7.0 35.7 25.1 6.9 -7.8 6.9 6.1 -6.0 EPS Growth JPMorgan Consensus 2009 Median 2008 2009 7.1 6.3 13.2 20.6 13.7 18.1 5.5 -1.9 14.8 NA NA NA -5.4 1.8 18.3 NA NA NA -4.1 4.8 -4.0 NA NA NA 16.5 10.3 9.0 2.4 5.6 16.0 NA NA NA EPS Growth JPMorgan Consensus 2009 Median 2008 2009 17.3 2.1 19.1 15.2 -27.0 22.7 20.0 16.7 23.9 -17.2 -17.2 5.3 15.6 1.4 19.5 NA NA NA 2.9 -6.7 15.7 NA NA NA 43.0 39.3 40.0 39.6 39.6 9.6 NA NA NA Updated as Jul 2008
Indonesia Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Korea Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Malaysia Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Philippines Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Taiwan Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Thailand Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
South Africa Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Brazil Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Mexico Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Russia Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Poland Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Turkey Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Source: I/B/E/S, MSCI, JPMorgan. Note: Average earnings growth calculated based on earnings aggregate of MSCI contituents. Consensus numbers are used for stocks not covered by JPMorgan under JPMorgan forecasts calculation. Median numbers are for the year 2008.
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Jun-07
Oct-07 Taiwan
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07 China
Feb-08
Jun-08
2009
2008
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Brazil 120 115 110 105 2008 100 95 90 Feb-07 110 100 90 Feb-07 2009 150 140 130 120
South Africa 130 2009 130 120 110 120 100 2008 110 2008 90 80 Feb-07
Mexico
2009
2008
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
100 Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Updated as of Jul 2
Source: I/B/E/S Notes: The dashboard aims to show changes in earnings expectations. All year ends are for December. EPS figures are normalized, starting at 100 on base date Feb 2007 for ease of comparison. These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items.
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Jun-07
Oct-07 Turkey
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Thailand 2009 110 107 104 2008 2009 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 Feb-07
Indonesia
2009 2008
110
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
90 Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Hungary 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 95 Feb-07 Jun-07 2008 2009 120 115
Czech. Republic 158 138 2009 110 105 2008 100 118 98
Philippines
2009
2008 100
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Updated as of Jul 2
Source: I/B/E/S Notes: The dashboard aims to show changes in earnings expectations. All year ends are for December. EPS figures are normalized, starting at 100 on base date Feb 2006 for ease of comparison. These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items.
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599,adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Source: I/B/E/S, MSCI, JPMorgan * Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. IBES Estimates are not available for Morocco, Jordan, Peru and Colombia. For all other markets, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest.
Updated as of Jul 2
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599,adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com July 3, 2008
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Market Aggregate Sector Neutral*
15.3 15.8 11.4 11.7 13.3 14.2 16.8 14.8 14.3 15.4 13.7 13.7
12.2 16.9 10.6 11.3 16.2 13.5 12.4 11.2 13.8 14.4 12.0 12.0
10.2 12.9 9.1 8.4 14.6 12.5 13.3 11.1 13.3 14.3 10.1 10.9
16.4 17.8 12.6 11.6 NA 14.4 20.2 11.4 12.9 12.6 12.7 13.6
12.4 19.2 14.6 13.9 23.3 15.4 15.4 11.6 17.6 16.2 14.6 14.7
8.1 16.4 6.4 8.5 NA 11.4 10.5 9.3 9.9 40.2 9.9 10.2
12.2 19.0 13.6 15.8 NA 12.9 11.6 10.4 13.6 NA 12.2 13.5
14.3 14.6 12.9 12.1 NA 11.1 23.1 10.7 14.4 15.5 12.8 13.8
12.5 19.4 14.1 13.5 19.4 17.5 14.6 8.0 15.7 13.1 13.6 13.6
Czech Republic
12.4 16.5 13.1 9.5 NA 12.0 NA 13.5 14.5 11.2 11.9 12.5
9.5 13.9 13.6 11.3 NA 11.2 NA 10.8 12.5 18.7 12.1 12.2
16.8 31.3 9.3 11.3 NA 14.6 NA 9.8 13.2 8.9 10.4 12.3
South Africa
EMF LATAM
EMF EMEA
12-month forward PE
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Market Aggregate Sector Neutral*
10.2 12.9 9.1 8.4 14.6 12.5 13.3 11.1 13.3 14.3 10.1 10.9
9.0 10.9 10.6 7.5 10.8 10.8 8.0 12.2 13.5 NA 10.3 10.3
14.8 NA 9.3 11.2 22.0 18.0 16.6 6.7 11.5 NA 10.6 11.9
16.4 17.8 12.6 11.6 NA 14.4 20.2 11.4 12.9 12.6 12.7 13.6
19.2 17.7 12.9 11.4 NA 14.1 20.2 12.0 11.1 10.9 12.5 13.6
Source: IBES, MSCI, JPMorgan. Note: PEs are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and IBES estimates for the rest. *Sector neutral PE are calcuated by using sector weights of MSCI EM and sector PE of respective markets (MSCI EM sector PE used where country sector does not exist)
Argentina
Hungary
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Turkey
Egypt
Brazil
Israel
Chile
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599,adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com July 3, 2008
Global* USA* Europe* Japan* Emerging Markets* Korea Taiwan China Brazil* Russia* South Africa* Mexico* India Malaysia Israel* Poland* Chile* Turkey* Thailand Indonesia Hungary* Egypt* Czech Republic* Argentina* Philippines Pakistan*
2.8 2.2 4.0 1.7 2.8 1.7 4.9 2.8 2.7 1.7 3.8 3.3 1.4 3.5 3.3 4.0 2.8 4.2 3.8 3.1 3.9 2.8 3.6 3.6 5.0 6.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 1.0 3.3
1.2 0.3 2.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 2.5 1.1 1.3 0.9 2.8 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.1 0.1 1.7 1.5 2.9 1.7 3.1 1.4 1.5 3.6 2.1 4.6
2.2 1.5 3.5 1.5 2.6 1.4 4.3 2.1 2.8 2.1 5.1 1.2 1.2 3.4 4.7 1.3 2.2 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.7 2.4 3.6 3.6 2.6 5.2
4.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 4.3 2.6 5.9 3.5 4.0 3.2 6.6 3.3 1.9 5.1 7.1 2.7 3.0 5.4 5.3 4.1 5.2 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.8 8.9
17.8 17.8 16.5 5.8 15.5 5.8 10.3 7.0 8.6 5.3 11.6 5.6 5.3 9.7 15.5 9.8 13.3 10.3 10.6 8.8 9.4 8.2 9.0 3.6 8.6 11.0
Global* USA* Europe* Japan* Emerging Markets* Korea Taiwan China Brazil* Russia* South Africa* Mexico* India Malaysia Israel* Poland* Chile* Turkey* Thailand Indonesia Hungary* Egypt* Czech Republic* Argentina* Philippines Pakistan*
15.7 17.0 15.9 9.9 18.3 14.7 14.3 18.5 21.6 21.9 19.5 23.2 21.9 15.7 17.4 16.3 11.4 18.9 18.3 31.1 21.0 18.0 19.3 17.8 16.1 26.7
0.4 0.6 3.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.9 1.6 2.0 6.4 0.4 4.9 1.3 4.3 6.2 6.4 5.1 3.5 7.3 4.4 11.4 7.0 9.8 18.0 9.3 8.7
9.5 10.3 11.7 6.0 11.6 10.1 8.3 12.7 12.3 15.3 19.2 11.7 14.0 11.7 12.2 9.1 10.6 10.7 13.5 20.0 14.1 16.7 12.9 18.0 10.7 17.2
15.1 16.4 16.3 8.8 16.8 14.4 14.6 16.1 18.4 25.0 25.9 14.8 20.5 14.1 18.7 16.3 11.3 17.3 16.8 27.8 18.3 26.1 14.7 18.0 13.1 23.8
22.2 23.3 24.0 12.2 24.2 20.8 19.6 21.9 26.8 32.6 37.3 23.0 26.0 20.1 32.9 21.0 17.5 24.7 23.2 46.4 22.2 29.0 19.8 18.0 18.1 40.9
509.8 509.8 505.4 107.8 422.9 45.8 51.5 44.6 134.8 91.3 97.6 64.3 133.4 191.0 422.9 31.5 21.3 52.5 38.4 72.8 24.1 77.8 23.6 18.0 34.5 53.4
Updated as of Jul 2
Source: Datastream, IBES, MSCI, JPMorgan. Note: Weighted average numbers based on aggregate of MSCI contituents. Consensus numbers are used for stocks not covered by JPMorgan. * only consensus numbers are used
10
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
3-month
4.8 1.9 -9.3 9.4 8.3 -10.5 -8.4 6.5 -6.3 -6.5 2.4 -12.8 3.6 1.2 -1.7 -16.7
6-month
3.7 -2.3 -29.5 0.2 -5.8 -20.8 -31.7 1.0 -19.3 -4.9 7.2 -23.9 -9.9 3.5 -4.7 -37.3
12-month
32.1 -15.6 -4.3 5.9 3.9 -31.4 -8.4 36.0 -13.5 -14.5 18.5 -32.0 11.7 5.0 5.1 -38.0
36-month
NA 45.6 148.4 80.2 89.2 0.5 90.7 131.1 39.5 91.3 NA 22.4 162.2 96.4 32.2 9.5
36-month annualised
NA 13.3 35.4 21.7 23.7 0.2 24.0 32.2 11.7 24.1 NA 7.0 37.9 25.2 9.7 3.1 JPMorgan's GBI - EM bond indices track local currency government bonds issued by emerging economies. The indices are easily replicable and represent the local bond portfolio that can be accessed by an international investor. For more information on these indices please visit www.morganmarkets.com or contact Gloria Kim at gloria.m.kim@jpmorgan.com The table shows the difference between the MSCI equity benchmark returns in local currency and the GBI - EM benchmark returns for each country. Positive numbers indicate outperformance by equities.
Country Brazil Chile China Colombia Czech Hungary India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Peru Poland Russia South Africa Thailand Turkey
Generic 10 years
15.6 8.0 4.6 10.8 5.1 8.5 8.8 13.3 4.8 9.2 7.3 6.7 6.2 10.7 5.9 20.6
Relative value of equities versus bonds by country Bond Maturity Bond Yield To Earnings Yield (years) Maturity
13.5 5.5 5.2 9.4 6.3 4.9 11.0 11.4 6.3 8.6 15.8 5.3 2.8 7.8 7.5 2.0 13.0 3.0 4.2 12.9 5.0 9.0 9.2 13.2 4.5 9.1 7.5 6.8 6.3 10.8 6.0 21.6 8.0 6.5 7.8 3.7 6.9 11.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 7.6 6.3 9.4 10.2 9.7 9.6 14.6
Dividend Yield
3.0 3.2 3.1 2.5 3.9 4.1 1.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 4.1 1.9 4.2 4.0 4.7
For 'DDM Implied Growth', we use a dividend discount model based on expected payout ratios for 2008 (except Colombia and Peru where we use current trailing payout ratio) Perpetual Implied Growth Rates are calculated based on the Gordon Growth Model: G= R - D/V G= Implied Growth Rate R= Required Growth Rate (Risk free rate + Equity Risk Premium) D= Index Dividend V= Index Value Note: Equity risk premium of 4%. Risk free rates are 10year benchmark or nearest equivalent.
Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, DataStream, MSCI, IBES Note: GBI-EM Bond Maturity and Yield to Maturity are used for each country.
Updated as of Jul 2
11
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Change in Forecasts Past 3 months (%) JPM Consensus 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 na na 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 na na na na 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -1.0 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.4 na na na na 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -1.5 na 0.0 0.0 na na na na
2Q 08E 2.5 0.5 10.8 3.0 10.5 3.8 1.0 6.4 2.4 na 5.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 na 5.1 8.2 7.4 2.0 na 5.9 na na
Economic Momentum GDP SAAR 3Q 08E 4Q 08E 3.5 4.5 5.8 6.5 11.7 10.2 4.0 4.0 3.0 16.0 1.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 6.0 5.6 2.0 2.4 na na 4.5 5.5 1.0 5.0 -1.2 6.6 5.0 6.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 2.9 na na 5.0 5.0 2.8 6.1 5.9 4.8 4.0 4.0 na na 5.5 5.1 na na na na
1Q 09E 5.5 4.8 9.1 3.8 0.0 4.5 4.9 5.9 7.4 na 5.3 4.0 8.2 4.5 5.0 2.8 na 4.2 2.8 6.5 4.0 na 4.5 na na
Inflation (% Y/Y) 2008E 2009E 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.0 7.0 5.0 5.9 6.0 13.9 11.5 11.9 9.2 4.5 3.5 8.3 5.8 5.8 4.7 na na 4.3 3.6 7.6 3.8 10.5 8.2 6.1 5.0 11.2 9.0 6.7 4.4 na na 6.8 3.4 9.0 9.4 5.1 3.0 7.7 4.8 na na 6.1 4.3 12.5 8.5 na na
Change in Consensus Forecasts for 2008E GDP over last 3 months (%)
Source: JPMorgan estimates, Bloomberg Note: Consensus estimates for Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan and Israel sourced from WES and Morocco from EIU
Updated as of Jul 2
12
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Real Rate
-300
-200
-100
100
200
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: JPMorgan Economics, Bloomberg. Bold figures on next column indicates tightening
Updated as of Jul 2
13
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) 8.4 8.0 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.0 Dec 04 JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 6.68 end Dec 08: 6.50 end Mar 09: 6.30 Nov 05 Oct 06 Consensus 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 JPMorgan Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 1.7 1.5 Dec 04 Nov 05
Brazilian Real (BRL) JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 1.72 end Dec 08: 1.75 end Mar 09: 1.77 29 28 27 26 Consensus JPMorgan Oct 06 Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 25 24
Russian Rouble (RUB) 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 23.5 end Dec 08: 23.7 end Mar 09: 24.0 Nov 05 Consensus 7.0 6.5 6.0 JPMorgan Oct 06 Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 5.5 Dec 04
South African Rand (ZAR) JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 8.60 end Dec 08: 8.30 end Mar 09: 8.00 JPMorgan
Consensus
23 Dec 04
Nov 05
Oct 06
Sep 07
Jul 08
Jun 09
Mexican Peso (MXN) 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.5 JPMorgan 10.2 Dec 04 Nov 05 Oct 06 Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 10.6 end Dec 08: 10.6 end Mar 09: 10.6 Consensus 48 46 44 42 40 38
Indian Rupee (INR) 3.8 JPMorgan 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 44.0 end Dec 08: 45.0 end Mar 09: 44.0 Nov 05 Oct 06 Sep 07 3.3 3.2 Consensus 3.1 3.0 Jun 09 2.9 Dec 04
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 4.8 4.6 4.4 Consensus JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 3.15 end Dec 08: 3.08 end Mar 09: 3.00 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 JPMorgan Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 3.4
JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 3.60 end Dec 08: 3.65 end Mar 09: 3.70
JPMorgan
36 Dec 04
Jul 08
Nov 05
Oct 06
3.2 Dec 04
Nov 05
Polish Zloty (PLN) 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 Dec 04 Nov 05 JPMorgan Oct 06 Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 2.13 end Dec 08: 2.23 end Mar 09: 2.34 600 575 550 525 Consensus 500 475 450 425 Dec 04
Chilean Peso (CLP) 1.8 1.7 JPMorgan JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 520 end Dec 08: 520 end Mar 09: 520 Nov 05 Oct 06 Sep 07 1.6 1.5 1.4 Consensus 1.3 1.2 Jul 08 Jun 09 1.1 Dec 04 Nov 05
Turkish Lira (TRL) JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 1.30 end Dec 08: 1.27 end Mar 09: 1.24 44 42 40 38 36 Consensus 34 32 JPMorgan Oct 06 Sep 07 Jul 08 Jun 09 30 28 Dec 04 Nov 05
Thai Baht (THB) JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 34.0 end Dec 08: 33.0 end Mar 09: 32.0 JPMorgan
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Consensus
Nov 05
Oct 06
Sep 07
Jul 08
Jun 09
Colombian Peso(COP)
JPMorgan forecast: end Sep 08: 1700 end Dec 08: 1750 end Mar 09: 1775
-12 EUR ZAR MXN RUB PLN INR KRW ARS CZK CLP JPY HUF ILS
Updated as of Jul 2
15
BRL
TRL
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Korea Taiwan China Brazil Russia South Africa Mexico India Malaysia Israel* Poland Chile Turkey Thailand Indonesia Hungary Egypt* Czech Republic Argentina Peru Philippines Morocco* Colombia Pakistan* Jordan*
Oct-07
Oct-07
Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Source: CEIC, JP Morgan estimates, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg * Data from World Economic Outlook for April 2006 for Current Account data, ** F denotes forecast. Note: Forex reserves as of 31 March 2008 or latest available data.
16
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
0 Brazil Israel Turkey Egypt India Pakistan Hungary Czech Republic Argentina Jordan Korea China Chile Peru South Africa Philippines Indonesia Colombia Malaysia Thailand Morocco Taiwan Russia Mexico Poland
Note: 1. All ratios are calculated from latest financial reports available ex Banks, Insurance and Diversified financials sector and calculations are based on weighted average of companies in the MSCI EMF universe. For Altman z-score, its application on company level is such that a score of less than 1.8 indicates bankruptcy likely, between 1.8-2.7 bankruptcy likely within 2 years and more than 3 most likely safe from bankruptcy. For market as a whole, the ratio is a weighted average of companies' z-score, thereby giving a general quality of companies in the market. 2. For the debt to equity distribution chart, each box indicates quartile levels and markets with values exceeding the scale are indicated by the open-ended top box. The diamond indicates weighted average for each market. 3. Quartile Distribution Charts: each quartile is separated by a line, with the exception of the top quartile which is subdivided in order to show the top decile of companies, shaded in blue. Markets with values exceeding the scale are indicated by the open-ended top box. The diamond indicates the weighted mean for each market.
17
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Source: CEIC, Datastream, Bloomberg, US Consensus Bureau, World Bank, IMF, UNESCO, JPMorgan estimates * Age dependency ratio defined as dependents to working-age population. ** Gross Enrollment Ratio is defined as pupils enrolled in a secondary level, regardless of age expressed as a percentage of the population in the relevant official age group *** 10-year CAGR for period 1998-2008, in local currency. # CAGR for period 1998-2008 ## Population data based on IMF estimate as on July 2007 Data for Gross enrollment data for 2004 except for Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina which is for 2003
Updated as of Jul 2
18
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
Brazil China Korea Russia Taiwan South Africa India Mexico Israel Malaysia Indonesia Poland Thailand Turkey Chile Czech Republic Hungary Egypt Peru Argentina Colombia Morocco Philippines Pakistan Jordan Total
India 6% Mexico 5%
China 14%
Updated as of Jul 2
19
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
July 3, 2008
6740
Utilities
Energy
China Korea Taiwan India Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines Pakistan Asia Russia South Africa Israel Poland Turkey Hungary Egypt Czech Republic Morocco Jordan EMEA Brazil Mexico Chile Argentina Peru Colombia LatAm Total
Source: MSCI, JPMorgan
0.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1
0.3 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.2
3.0 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 6.0 6.9 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
0.2
0.1 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 8.5 5.3
1.1 4.6
1.8 4.3
4.4 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 11.5 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.9 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.7 20.2
0.3
1.5 2.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
0.8 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
0.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 5.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 7.0 16.6
3.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 3.1 0.7 2.0 0.1 0.0
1.7
20
0.9 7.4
0.2 10.6
2.8 10.9
14.2 12.8 10.5 5.9 2.3 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.2 49.2 10.9 6.7 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 26.0 16.9 4.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 24.7 100.0
Updated as of Jul 2
Total
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
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21
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
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22
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com J.P.Morgan Equities Limited: Deanne Gordon (27-21) 712 0875, deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
Country Strategists
Frank Gong Bharat Iyer Rizal Prasetijo Nick Lai Scott Seo Chris Oh Bond Snodgrass Emy Shayo Brian Chase Deanne Gordon Sriyan Pietersz
emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com brian.p.chase@jpmorgan.com
deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com sriyan.pietersz@jpmorgan.com joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com david.g.fernandez@jpmorgan.com jiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.com frank.fx.gong@jpmorgan.com grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com sinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.com alfredo.e.thorne@jpmorgan.com vladimir.werning@jpmorgan.com fabio.akira@jpmorgan.com michael.marrese@jpmorgan.com yarkin.cebeci@jpmorgan.com marisa.fassler@jpmorgan.com nina.a.chebotareva@jpmorgan.com nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com
The authors acknowledge the contribution of Nageswararao Khandavalli, Sanaya Tavaria and Bharat Kheria of J.P. Morgan Services India Private Ltd., Mumbai, to this report. Any analysis or opinions expressed are those of the authors alone.