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Changing Demand Patterns and

Maize Value Chains in Asia

Bekele Shiferaw, Jonathan Hellin, Vijesh Krishna, Olaf Erenstein and Sika Gbegbelegbe

CIMMYT

11th Asian Maize Conference

November 7-11, 2011 Nanning, China

Outline

Changing demand (and supply) patterns

Maize value chains for

food

feed

high value maize (vegetable

maize)

Projected future demand for maize

Implications for research, production and value chain development

Conclusions

Projected future demand for maize • Implications for research, production and value chain development • Conclusions
Projected future demand for maize • Implications for research, production and value chain development • Conclusions
Projected future demand for maize • Implications for research, production and value chain development • Conclusions

Value chains

Kaplinsky (2000) defines the value chain as ‘the full range of

activities which are required to bring a product or service from conception, through the intermediary phases of production, delivery to final consumers, and final disposal after use’.

Kaplinsky and Morris (2001) distinguish value-chain analysis from

supply chains by emphasizing the:

linkages both between and within actors in the chain

Coordination and collaboration; joint investments; sharing of information for mutual economic benefit

Value chain analysis includes mapping of key actors, relations, price flows, value added, marketing costs, profits, risk and

benefit distribution and governance

Value Chains

Impact

Farmer

Consumption

Value Chains Impact Farmer Consumption Farm Level Maize Production Farm Income Input Value Chain Foundation Seed

Farm Level

Maize

Production

Farm

Income

Consumption Farm Level Maize Production Farm Income Input Value Chain Foundation Seed Production Commerc

Input Value Chain

Level Maize Production Farm Income Input Value Chain Foundation Seed Production Commerc ial Seed

Foundation

Seed

Production

Commerc

ial

Seed

Producti

on

Plant

Breeding

Commerc ial Seed Producti on Plant Breeding Seed Distributi on & Sales Crop Marketing Food,
Commerc ial Seed Producti on Plant Breeding Seed Distributi on & Sales Crop Marketing Food,

Seed

Distributi

on &

Sales

Crop

Marketing

Seed Distributi on & Sales Crop Marketing Food, Feed and other Product Marketing Consumer:
Seed Distributi on & Sales Crop Marketing Food, Feed and other Product Marketing Consumer:
Seed Distributi on & Sales Crop Marketing Food, Feed and other Product Marketing Consumer:

Food, Feed

and other

Product

Marketing

Consumer:

Consumption

Feed and other Product Marketing Consumer: Consumption Food, Feed and other Product development Output Value Chain
Feed and other Product Marketing Consumer: Consumption Food, Feed and other Product development Output Value Chain

Food, Feed and other Product development

Feed and other Product Marketing Consumer: Consumption Food, Feed and other Product development Output Value Chain

Output Value Chain

Why Worry About Value Chains?

Impact = f(technology, markets, policy and institutions)

Information: awareness to make adoption decisions

Seed access: translate desired demand to effective demand

Capital and finance: credit and insurance services

Markets access: market linkages, marketing costs, price volatility, processing, storage, handling and distribution

access to domestic and regional markets

quality and standards in export trade

food safety

competitiveness, competition and fair prices

Policies : subsidies, extension, regulatory rules, discretionary intervention, capacity building, and sustainability

• Policies : subsidies, extension, regulatory rules, discretionary intervention, capacity building, and sustainability

Maize value chains and

drivers of change

Population growth

Income growth

Urbanization

Globalization and trade

• Urbanization • Globalization and trade • Food maize • Feed maize – Poultry feed –

Food maize

Feed maize

Poultry feed

Swine feed

Stover for ruminants

Vegetable maize

Sweet corn

Baby corn

Feed maize – Poultry feed – Swine feed – Stover for ruminants • Vegetable maize –

Key issues

Understanding changing demand patterns

Research and policy implications for:

Adoption, production and supply (input value chains for seed, fertilizer, equipment, etc)

End user preferences, quality and standards

Markets and trade (prices, trade policy, etc)

Value chain development (integration, coordination,

storage, processing, distribution)

Farmer participation to capture new and expanding

markets

Equity and income growth for the poor

distribution) – Farmer participation to capture new and expanding markets – Equity and income growth for

Maize globally and in Asia

Region

Annual average area (million ha)

Annual average production (million tons)

Area (%)

Production

(%)

Eastern and Southern Africa

18.04

34.38

12.0

4.6

Western and Central Africa

11.12

17.4

7.4

2.3

West Asia and North Africa

2.17

13.63

1.4

1.8

South Asia

10.53

25.11

7.0

3.3

Southeast Asia and Pacific

8.26

25.92

5.5

3.4

East Asia

31.4

165.51

20.9

22.0

Asia

52.36

230.17

34.9

30.6

Mexico and CAC

9.26

26.84

6.2

3.6

Other Latin America

19.13

83.24

12.8

11.1

Eastern Europe

6.5

29.13

4.3

3.9

North America

33.57

330.89

22.4

44.0

Developing Countries

109.9

392.01

73.3

52.1

World

149.97

752.04

100.0

100.0

Maize net imports in Asia (1000 tons)

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

-2,000

-4,000

Iran Iraq Jordan Lebanon Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey Yemen India Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Cambodia Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
Yemen
India
Myanmar
Nepal
Pakistan
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Japan
China
North Korea
South Korea

Trends in area under maize in Asia (million ha)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Others0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pakistan Viet Nam Thailand Philippines

Pakistan10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Viet Nam Thailand

Viet Nam10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Thailand Philippines

Thailand10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam

Philippines20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet

Indonesia10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam Thailand Philippines Indonesia

India

China0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam Thailand

Trends in maize production in Asia (million tons)

250

200

150

100

50

0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Others0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pakistan Viet Nam Thailand Philippines

Pakistan50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Viet Nam Thailand

Viet Nam50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Thailand Philippines

Thailand50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam

Philippines50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam

Indonesia50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam

India0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam Thailand

China0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Others Pakistan Viet Nam Thailand

Trends of maize yields in Asia (ton/ha)

6.0 China 5.0 Viet Nam Thailand 4.0 3.0 Pakistan 2.0 India 1.0 0.0 2001 2002
6.0
China
5.0
Viet Nam
Thailand
4.0
3.0
Pakistan
2.0
India
1.0
0.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Pakistan
Others
Source: USDA, 2010
Annual average growth rate of maize area (%) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
Annual average growth rate of maize area (%)
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Pakistan
Others
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
2002-2004
2005-2007
2008-2010

Source: USDA, 2010

Annual average growth rate of maize production (%)

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 China India Indonesia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Pakistan Others
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Pakistan
Others
-5.0
2002-2004
2005-2007
2008-2010

Source: USDA, 2010

Annual average growth rate of maize yield (%)

20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 China India Indonesia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Pakistan Others -5.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Pakistan
Others
-5.0
2002-2004
2005-2007
2008-2010

Source: USDA, 2010

Demand for alternative uses

Demand for alternative uses

Average annual maize demand for food as percent of total

maize demand in Asia (2005-2007)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 West Asia South Asia Southeast
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
West Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia and Pacific
East Asia
Source: FAOSTAT, 2010
Yemen
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Syria
Iran
Jordan
Bangladesh
Nepal
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Myanmar
Cambodia
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Laos
Viet Nam
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Korea, DPR
Korea, Rep
China

Average annual maize demand for feed as percent

of total maize demand in Asia (2005-2007)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 West Asia South Asia
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
West Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia and Pacific
East Asia
Source: FAOSTAT, 2010
Lebanon
Jordan
Iran
Syria
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Yemen
Myanmar
Sri Lanka
India
Pakistan
Nepal
Bangladesh
Vanuatu
Malaysia
Thailand
Viet Nam
Philippines
Indonesia
Laos
Cambodia
Timor-Leste
China
Korea, Rep
Korea, DRP

Average annual other demand of maize as percent of

total demand in Asia (2005-2007)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 West Asia South Asia
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
West Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia and Pacific
East Asia
Source: FAOSTAT, 2010
Turkey
Jordan
Iran
Yemen
Lebanon
Syria
Saudi Arabia
India
Pakistan
Nepal
Myanmar
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Laos
Indonesia
Philippines
Timor-Leste
Malaysia
Viet Nam
Thailand
Mongolia
China
Korea, DPR
Korea, Rep

Growth rates for food and feed demand in Asia

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0

Annual growth rates for maize feed demand (%) 14.7 9.4 7.4 6.7 6.4 5.8 5.3
Annual growth rates for maize feed demand (%)
14.7
9.4
7.4
6.7
6.4
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.4
1.9
0.9
Asia (total)
Central Asia
East Asia
South Asia
South-East
West Asia
Asia
-7.5
Annual average (1990-1999)
Annual average (2000-2007)

Annual growth rates for maize food demand (%)

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

16.2 8.6 6.0 5.2 4.1 3.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 Asia (total) Central Asia East
16.2
8.6
6.0
5.2
4.1
3.2
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.1
Asia (total) Central Asia
East Asia
South Asia
South-East
West Asia
-0.1
Asia
-1.9
Annual average (1990-1999)
Annual average (2000-2007)

Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr

Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

International prices for major cereals (US$/ton)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

International prices for major cereals (US$/ton) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Maize Rice Wheat

Maize

International prices for major cereals (US$/ton) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Maize Rice Wheat

Rice

International prices for major cereals (US$/ton) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Maize Rice Wheat

Wheat

International prices for major cereals (US$/ton) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Maize Rice Wheat

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Cost of production in India

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Cost of production (Rs/qn)

818 693 624 Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujarat Himachal Jharkhand Madhya Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand Average Pradesh
818
693
624
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Himachal
Jharkhand
Madhya
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Average
Pradesh
Pradesh
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize
Paddy
Wheat
Maize

Average cost of production, prices and farm profits (Rs/qn)

Cost of production and farm profits (Rs/qn) in eight states of India

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cost of Harvest price Minimum Harvest price -200
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Cost of
Harvest price
Minimum
Harvest price
-200
production
(Rs/qn)
Support Price
profit (Rs/qn)
MS price profit
(Rs/qn)
(Rs/qn)
(Rs/qn)
Paddy
Wheat
Maize

Value chains for high value maize

Value chains for high value maize

Sweet corn

Production and exports dominated by the United

States and Europe

However, the US is losing its market share of Asia’s importers to Thailand and China

Advantage in year-round fresh production, lower labor costs, proximity to buying destination

Improved quality of sweet corn products has led to an

increase in Thailand’s exports.

Thailand also has an advantage over US maize in Asian markets

because it does not grow GM

maize.

Significant shift in the international trade of sweet corn for Asia

Import of sweet corn has reduced

by 12% while export is increased by 162% (2000 -2009)

China and Japan are the major

importers and China with Thailand

and Malaysia major expeorter

World exports of sweet corn (1000 tons)

1000 800 600 400 200 0
1000
800
600
400
200
0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World Africa Source: FAOSTAT,

World

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World Africa Source: FAOSTAT, 2011

Africa

Source: FAOSTAT, 2011

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World Africa Source: FAOSTAT, 2011

Americas

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World Africa Source: FAOSTAT, 2011

Asia

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World Africa Source: FAOSTAT, 2011

Europe

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World Africa Source: FAOSTAT, 2011

Oceania

Sweet corn exports from Asia (1000 tons)

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

from Asia (1000 tons) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1992

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong

Thailand

China, Hong Kong SAR1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand Indonesia China

Indonesia2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong SAR China

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia China Singapore

China

Singapore2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia

Others2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia China Singapore

Israel

Malaysia2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thailand China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia

World imports of sweet corn (1000 tons)

1050

850

650

450

250

50

-150

of sweet corn (1000 tons) 1050 850 650 450 250 50 -150 1991 1992 1993 1994

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

World

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Africa

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Americas

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Asia

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Europe

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oceania

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sweet corn imports into Asia (1000 tons)

120 Japan 100 80 60 China 40 South Korea 20 0
120
Japan
100
80
60
China
40
South Korea
20
0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China

Japan

Philippines1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Lebanon China Singapore Others

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Republic of

Lebanon

China

Singapore2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Others Republic of Korea Saudi Arabia China,

2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Republic of Korea Saudi Arabia China, Hong

2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Republic of Korea Saudi Arabia China, Hong

Others

Republic of Korea2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Saudi Arabia China, Hong Kong

Saudi Arabia2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Republic of Korea China, Hong Kong

China, Hong Kong SAR2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Republic of Korea Saudi

Kazakhstan2006 2007 2008 2009 Japan Philippines Lebanon China Singapore Others Republic of Korea Saudi Arabia China,

Asia's share (%) of sweet corn global trade

45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Import
Export

Baby corn

Short cycle crop with a duration of about 60 days as compared to the 110-

120 days for food grain crop.

Labor-intensive high value crop with significant export demand

Asia has emerged as the major

producer and exporter (e.g. Thailand,

India, Malaysia, China)

Competitiveness in export markets depends on quality and production costs

Income diversification and intensification for small-scale maize farmers - harvest multiple crops and

costs • Income diversification and intensification for small-scale maize farmers - harvest multiple crops and

Baby corn

Contract farming with major seed companies or processors to access inputs and for timely marketing

Small-scale farmers need to meet quality standards to benefit from value chains

High domestic demand in China and other SE

Asia countries .Growing high end domestic

demand in South Asia

Thailand is the largest exporter in the world with over 61 thousand tons exported/yr

Export markets: USA, Japan, Malaysia, UK

(canned baby corn) and

Asian countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Malaysia) for fresh baby corn

Malaysia, UK (canned baby corn) and • Asian countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Malaysia) for
Malaysia, UK (canned baby corn) and • Asian countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Malaysia) for

Challenges

Access to inputs (new seeds, fertilizer, etc)

High risk (drought, floods, etc) and lack of insurance

Price volatility/seasonality

High marketing and transport costs

Inadequate farmer organization to achieve economies of scale

Limited contract farming by food and feed processors for

grain maize

Storage and handling

Timely marketing - especially for high value maize

(perishable)

Future demand for maize in Asia

(IMPACT Model Projections)

Million tons

Projected maize demand in Asia

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

Southeast Asiademand in Asia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

South Asiain Asia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Southeast

East Asiain Asia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Southeast

West Asiain Asia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Southeast

North Asiain Asia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Southeast

AsiaAsia 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Southeast Asia

Projected demand for alternative uses

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

demand for alternative uses 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total

Fooddemand for alternative uses 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Feeddemand for alternative uses 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

BiofuelProjected demand for alternative uses 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030

Otherdemand for alternative uses 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Million tons

Maize demand in East Asia

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

ChinaAsia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MongoliaAsia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

North KoreaEast Asia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

South KoreaEast Asia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

JapanAsia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

East AsiaEast Asia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projected maize demand in South Asia

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Million tons

Afghanistan20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan

Bangladesh20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan

Bhutan10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri

India10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Sri

Nepal10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Pakistan Sri

Pakistan20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal

Sri Lanka20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal

South Asia20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million tons Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Million tons)

Projected demand SE-Asia

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Kmer and Laos Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Simgapore Thailand Vietnam Southeast Asia 2000 2010
Kmer and Laos
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Simgapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Southeast Asia
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

Million tons

Net trade: Huge imports to meet

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

the rising the demand

Southeast Asia 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 South Asia East Asia West Asia North
Southeast
Asia
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
South Asia
East Asia
West Asia
North Asia
Asia

Million tons

Projected maize net-trade in SE Asia

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 China Mongolia North Korea South Korea Japan East Asia
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
China
Mongolia
North Korea
South Korea
Japan
East Asia

Million tons

Projected Maize Net-Trade for South Asia

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

Afghanistan0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bangladesh Bhutan India

Bangladesh-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bhutan India Nepal

Bhutan-10 -15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan

India-15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Sri

Nepal-15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Pakistan Sri

Pakistan-10 -15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal

Sri Lanka-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India

South Asia-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India

Conclusions

The rapidly changing demand for maize in Asia has opened new and untapped opportunities for

agricultural transformation and income growth

for poverty reduction in the region.

This however requires an integrated approach

(technology, markets and policy) that stimulates

expansion in production to meet the growing demand while also diversifying market

opportunities for resource-poor farmers to access

and benefit from emerging markets.

demand while also diversifying market opportunities for resource-poor farmers to access and benefit from emerging markets.

Conclusions

Improving access to new seeds, complementary inputs and services to expand production to meet the growing demand

Diversifying market opportunities for maize farmers in less favored

areas to access emerging markets

Building market linkages between small-scale maize producers and other value chain actors

Improving access to market information and other business services to rural producers

Supporting organizational capacity of small-scale maize producers to achieve economies of scale

Enhance skills in maize vegetable production and post-harvest processing that add value to products

Policy support for small maize producer to understand and better satisfy product quality and delivery standards