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Issue 100

Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
p2 p6 p7 p12
The Multi-Million Dollar Mistake Property Renting Tip #4: Utilities handover Singapore Property News This Week Resale Property Transactions (April 3 April 9)

FROM THE

EDITOR

Welcome to the 100th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly.

Hope you like it!


Mr. Propwise

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100

The Multi-Million Dollar Mistake


By Mr. Propwise Here's the story of a property investor who missed a once-in-a-decade opportunity. The date is early March, 2009. Post the onslaught of the Global Financial Crisis property prices had corrected sharply and everywhere he looked there were bargains to be had. At many projects prices were down 30+% from the early 2008 highs. To Buy or Not to Buy?

He found a large unit in a prime area with a desperate seller, asking for $1,600+ PSF, 15% below what he had paid for it. He had done his homework, liked the up-and-coming area,

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 and thought the pricing was attractive, but was uncertain whether to pull the trigger. Everyone he talked to, every newspaper or website he read, was still all doom and gloom. "Gurus" were talking constantly about how this next Great Depression would last for years, about the likelihood of a Double Dip in the face of any rally, about how the Singapore property market would bottom at the end of the year and that would be the best time to buy. And so he hesitated and didn't pull the trigger. By June 2009 the asking prices had risen by 20% to $2,000 PSF, and prices have now reached $3,000 PSF. That hesitation had cost him several million dollars. The Thirst for Certainty I get it. We want exact forecasts, to know exactly how much property prices will go up
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or down by and when. And thus an entire industry of "gurus" have come forth to help quench this thirst for certainty, telling you confidently in the newspapers and TV news clips that property prices will rise by 5% over the next 12 months. But if we get right down to it, the truth is that nobody (at least in the secular realm) can foresee the future with any certainty. Putting your faith in these "guru" forecasts to time your property investments will almost guarantee that you'll be following the crowd like a troop of lemmings right over the cliff. The Smarter Approach to Timing "It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong." - Carveth Read While we can't forecast the market with any
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 certainty, we can make use of continually occuring cycles to guide our investment timing the decisions. Rather than focusing on trying to predict exactly how the future will turn out, it's more important to figure out where we stand right now. What are the current conditions and DATA telling us about where we are in the property cycle? Armed with this knowledge, we can then look at leading indicators such as interest rates, urban planning directives (e.g. Master Plan, zoning), government and population policies, upcoming supply, and stock market movements to corroborate this view. In other words, while we can't predict the exact timing and movement of the market, we can make use of our analysis of the current situation to guide our decisions as today's
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events leads to tomorrow's trends. This is how the smart, sophisticated investors make their decisions.

The Genesis of Property Market Insights


In late 2010 I started Propwise.sg as I was sick of the misinformation out there in the market. There was no reliable, unbiased source of information on Singapore property that the regular person could turn to back then. Many of the burning questions I've been getting from readers since then are about the timing of their property purchases. And while sophisticated investors might spend both the time and money to gather and analyze the data, or pay tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to brokers and analysts to help them do it, the regular person had no such access to this information.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 And thus Property Market Insights (PMI) was born. My goal was to give access to regular property buyers and investors access to this knowledge, at a tiny fraction of the cost it would take to pay for the data and support the small team needed to analyze and update the data. I also spent close to a year to develop the Property Market Cycle Model, the centerpiece of PMI, that incorporates both the current property market data and also leading indicators to help investors know where we are in the cycle, and the best actions to take. In the next part of this series, I will discuss how to get on the right side of the property cycle by being a contrarian investor. Till next time! By Mr. Propwise, founder of top Singapore property blog Propwise.sg, a Chartered Financial Analyst and resident real estate analyst at PropertyMarketInsights.com, a site to help property owners and investors make profitable decisions in uncertain times. Click here to learn more

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100

Property Renting Tip #4: Utilities handover


(Reference: www.singaporepower.com.sg) You do not need to terminate the existing power supplies or utilities for the new Tenant.All you have to ensure is that the next occupier submits a request to SP Services (Singapore Power,an energy utility company) to change the billing party of the said premise with an effective date. assist you on the utilities handover so there will be no disruption in the utilities supplies when the Tenants take over the unit. By Eileen Tan and Ui Wei Teck, property investors and authors of Enjoying Mid-Life Without Crisis. This tip and dozens more are from their book.

If you have a Real Estate Broker who has


introduced the Tenant to you, the Broker can

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100

Singapore Property This Week


Residential
6 freehold units at 8 Nassim Hill up for bulk sale The six units are part of 8 Nassim Hill, a freehold condominium project with 16 luxury triplex apartments with private rooftop pools and gardens. They consist of three penthouses and two townhouses (3,2184,338 sq ft) and a corner townhouse (5,759 sq ft). Originally meant to be kept for rental income, unsolicited interests in the units have led the developer into putting them up for sale at a price of $58-59 million or $2,400-2,450 psf. Only 10 units at the development have been sold so far, at an average of $3,060 psf, with the highest at $3,316 psf. It is located
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near Botanic Gardens and Orchard Road as well as the upcoming Napier and Orchard Boulevard MRT stations. The expression of interest will close on May 8 at 4 pm. (Source: Business Times)

Developer sales in March break records


Developers sold a record 2,793 units in March, up from the 712 units sold in February, a result of pent-up demand after the traditionally slow Chinese New Year period in February and the cooling measures in January. Specifically, the OCR accounts for almost 65% or 1,814 of the 2,793 private homes sold in March while the RCR accounts for 29.4%.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 However, sales are expected to slow to around 1,500-2,600 units in the next few months. The record sales in March can also be attributed to the record 3,489 private homes released, compared to 261 in February, the more attractive prices from discounts and rebates in light of the increased ABSD rates, the proximity to MRT stations for many new launches and buyers fear of more cooling measures. The latest figures brought Q1s total to 5,533 units excluding ECs, compared to the 4,353 units in Q4 2012. Resale deals, on the other hand, fell from 3,466 in Q4 2012 to 1,838 in Q1. Tender for 3 EC sites to close on the same day Four residential sites have been released under the H1 2013 GLS, one of which is a EC site at Punggol Central whose tender will close on July 30 together with two other EC sites in Punggol Drive and Yuan Ching Road. These two sites will be launched in June. This is aimed at lowering tender bids and property prices since this may result in developers having to consider their choices carefully. Some believed that this may moderate the number of bidders but not the bid prices and having the sites in the same area close on the same day might be a better measure. Furthermore, a lower bid prices may not result in a lower property price since the developer will still launch the development at the market price.

279 ECs were sold in March, compared to 209 in February. This resulted in a total of 744 ECs sold in Q1, compared to the 1,682 units sold in Q4 2012.
(Source: Business Times)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 The Punggol Central EC site is a 146,010 sq ft plot with a maximum building height of 64 metres above mean sea level (AMSL) and a maximum GFA of 438,030 sq ft that can yield 395 homes. It will be launched on April 29. Next is another EC site located at Anchorvale Crescent. The 247,570 sq ft site has a maximum building height of 64 metres AMSL and a 742,709 sq ft GFA which can yield 690 units. Tender closes on May 30. The two EC sites are expected to attract an average of five bids per plot, with bids in the range of $300-$350 psf ppr. Also released is a 162,808 sq ft residential site at Faber Walk with a maximum building height of five storeys and a maximum GFA of 227,936 sq ft which can yield 210 units. The tender will close on June 18. It is expected to draw a top bid of around $480 psf ppr. The last site is a 160,710 sq ft residential site at Fernvale Close with a maximum building height of 80m AMSL and a maximum GFA of 482,131 sq ft that can yield about 495 homes. The tender will close June 13 for this site which expected to draw a top bid of $450-520 psf ppr." (Source: Business Times) 99-year Kim Tian Road private residential plot draws record-breaking top bid The 99-year leasehold private housing site located at Kim Tian Road near Tiong Bahru MRT Station and Tiong Bahru Plaza attracted a total of 11 bids, with the record-breaking top bid of $550.28 million or $1,162.86 psf ppr from Keppel Land unit Harvestland Development.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 This is despite the height restrictions of 25, 30 and 40 storeys for different sections of the site and a maximum of 500 homes, and the requirement for a basement carpark instead of a relatively cheaper multi-storey carpark. The developer plans to develop the site into a project with around 500 one to four-bedroom units of 500 sq ft to 1,350 sq ft. The expected breakeven cost and average selling price are $1,660-1,800 psf and $2,000 psf respectively. (Source: Business Times) Commercial Suburban mall Jem 100% leased 100% of the 241 shops in Jem, a 76,000 sq ft 70-30 retail and office mixed-use development located in the Jurong Gateway regional centre, have been leased. Tenants include H&M, and Books Kinokuniya, many of
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which do not have outlets in the region. The lack of competition for such big brands in the area and the malls proximity to the Jurong East MRT station are attractive to retailers. Other retailers include hypermarkets like Fairprice Xtra, F&B outlets and entertainment facilities. (Source: Business Times)

Two new wings to be added to Marina Square in a $95m expansion


The first new wing to be added to Marina Square is The Dining Edition, a $15 million new gourmet dining zone to be completed by June. There will 16 F&B outlets, with 14 tenants committed and already renovating their premises. The second is a $80 million three-storey retail wing to be completed by Q4 2014.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100 There will be 60 to 80 shops in 150,000 sq ft of NLA in the new retail wing, which would feature a 200m frontage facing the Marina Bay area. (Source: Business Times) Two adjoining JTC industrial properties in Jurong up for sale The two sites zoned for "Business 2" use, located at 1 Gul Avenue and 3 Gul Circle in the Jurong Industrial Estate, will be jointly sold through expression of interest. The first has a 24-year lease while the latter has a 16year lease. Combined, the two sites consists of two single-storey warehouses with ancillary office space and four workshop/showroom/office buildings with 527,418 sq ft of GFA on sitting on the total land area of 639,454 sq ft. The scarcity of such large industrial sites and its proximity to the AYE and PIE and the proposed Gul Circle MRT station are attractive factors to potential buyers. The expression of interest will close on May 16, 2013 at 1pm. (Source: Business Times)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Apr 3 Apr 9

Postal District 3 4 4 4 5 5 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12

Project Name TWIN REGENCY MARINA COLLECTION CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY HARBOUR VIEW TOWERS VARSITY PARK CONDOMINIUM VISTA PARK CITYLIGHTS CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES KENG LEE COURT KENTISH COURT URBANA KIM SIA COURT BELLE VUE RESIDENCES BEVERLY HILL VIZ AT HOLLAND THE ASTON CLIFTEN HOLLAND PEAK DUCHESS CREST SOLEIL @ SINARAN ROCHELLE AT NEWTON CITY REGENCY THE MARQUE @ IRRAWADDY DE ROYALE

Area (sqft) 980 2,390 1,227 1,249 1,302 603 560 1,216 1,044 1,259 1,012 1,421 3,606 3,778 818 667 1,066 2,551 1,744 936 1,012 990 883 1,281

Transacted Price ($) 1,780,000 7,050,500 1,900,000 1,046,000 1,600,000 698,000 990,000 2,060,000 1,210,000 1,368,000 2,100,000 2,720,000 5,850,000 7,300,000 1,400,000 1,100,000 1,740,000 3,680,000 2,500,000 1,820,000 1,668,000 1,450,000 1,227,500 1,720,000

Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,817 FH 2,950 99 1,548 99 838 99 1,228 99 1,158 99 1,769 99 1,694 FH 1,159 FH 1,086 99 2,075 FH 1,914 FH 1,622 FH 1,932 FH 1,711 FH 1,648 FH 1,633 FH 1,443 FH 1,434 99 1,943 99 1,649 99 1,464 FH 1,391 FH 1,343 FH

Postal District 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 18

Project Name CITY REGENCY WOODSVILLE 28 DAKOTA RESIDENCES ASTORIA PARK EUNOS GREEN THE HELICONIA GUILIN COURT PALM GALLERIA SPRING @ LANGSAT OLA RESIDENCES THE MONTAGE THE NCLAVE DUNMAN VIEW GOLD LEAF MANSIONS EASTWOOD REGENCY COSTA DEL SOL BLEU @ EAST COAST SUNHAVEN EAST MEADOWS CHANGI COURT BAYSHORE PARK BLUWATERS LIVIA CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM

Area (sqft) 990 1,195 1,292 850 1,432 1,335 1,216 495 474 1,636 958 732 1,216 1,496 420 1,238 1,012 1,259 1,216 1,163 936 818 1,345 1,130

Transacted Price ($) 1,060,000 1,400,000 1,850,000 1,000,000 1,475,000 1,355,000 955,000 765,000 685,000 2,285,000 1,200,000 847,500 1,380,000 1,450,000 640,000 1,700,000 1,220,000 1,350,000 1,290,000 1,180,000 950,000 828,000 1,450,000 1,120,000

Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,070 FH 1,172 99 1,432 99 1,176 99 1,030 FH 1,015 FH 785 FH 1,545 FH 1,446 FH 1,397 FH 1,253 FH 1,158 FH 1,135 99 969 FH 1,525 FH 1,373 99 1,206 FH 1,072 FH 1,061 99 1,015 FH 1,014 99 1,012 946 1,078 99 991 99

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 100


Postal District 18 19 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 26 27 28 Area (sqft) 1,658 710 1,507 1,701 1,206 1,722 958 980 818 1,281 1,292 1,152 1,195 980 Transacted Price ($) 1,340,000 805,000 1,520,000 3,220,000 1,850,000 1,900,000 1,190,000 1,068,000 820,000 1,190,000 1,060,000 1,030,000 955,000 830,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 808 99 1,133 99 1,009 FH 1,893 FH 1,535 FH 1,103 FH 1,242 99 1,090 FH 1,002 99 929 99 821 99 894 99 799 99 847 99

Project Name CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM CHUAN PARK SIN MING PLAZA JARDIN THE NEXUS CLEMENTI PARK THE CENTRIS HILLVIEW HEIGHTS MAYSPRINGS GUILIN VIEW MAYSPRINGS CASTLE GREEN ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM SELETAR SPRINGS CONDOMINIUM

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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