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4QFY2013 Result Update | Real Estate

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research

BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) (27.0) (46) (6)bps (27.7) 3QFY13 61 9 14.7 14 % chg (qoq) 66.3 89.9 2.1 bps 71.2

`378 `446
12 months

4QFY13 102 17 16.8 23

4QFY12 140 32 22.7 32

Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code

Real Estate 1,544 820 0.9 452/284 4,132 10 19,170 5,834 MAHLIFE.BO MLIFE@IN

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers (MLIFE) reported a weak set of numbers for 4QFY2013, mainly due to delay in execution in Aura and Splendor Ph-II projects. MLIFE reported standalone revenues of `102cr in 4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 27% yoy against consensus estimate of `120cr. The standalone EBITDA decreased by 46.1% yoy to `17cr in 4QFY2013, owing to lower-than-expected revenue recognition. The companys PAT reported a decline of 27.7% yoy to `23cr. On a consolidated level, MLIFE reported a revenue of `362cr and PAT of `82cr in 4QFY2013, suggesting a profit for its subsidiaries at the net level. We recommend Buy rating on the stock. Sales remain subdued, expect strong pick up in following quarters: MLIFE launched its second phase of project Ashvita (Hyderabad) and Aqualily C (Chennai) during the quarter. Further, the company sold 0.38mn sqft (new sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of `151cr, implying a realization of ~`3,974/sqft and sold 91 acres in its Chennai MWC and Jaipur MWC. Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers along with improving realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up in approvals and new launches anticipated in the current financial year. Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversified geographic exposure in terms of ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects. We expect strong sales numbers over the coming quarters, following new project launches in Pune, Chennai and Mumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is currently trading at 1.1x and 1.0x on our FY2014E and FY2015E book value compared to its 3 year average of 1.3x. We value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and slightly adjust our NAV to `496/share, and apply a 10% discount to our SOTP value to arrive at a target price of `446, suggesting an 18% upside from the current levels. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock. Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 51.0 3.5 29.1 16.4

Abs. (%) Sensex MLife

3m (4.3) (6.7)

1yr 10.3 16.6

3yr 8.3 (25.5)

FY2012 701 14.6 119 10.1 27.3 29.2 13.0 1.3 10.3 10.5 2.7 9.9

FY2013E 738 5.3 141 18.7 32.8 34.6 10.9 1.2 10.9 11.7 2.9 9.0

FY2014E 888 20.3 159 12.2 30.6 38.8 9.7 1.1 11.2 11.6 2.5 8.0

FY2015E 1,002 12.8 177 11.8 30.6 43.4 8.7 1.0 11.4 12.2 2.2 7.1

Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842

viralk.shah@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)


(` cr)
Net Sales Other operating income Total income Cost of project (% of total income) Employee Cost (% of total income) Administrative and other expenses (% of total income) Total Expenditure EBITDA (EBITDA %) Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT PBT (%) Total Tax (% of PBT) Reported PAT (After Min. Int. and Asso.) PAT Margins (%) Extra ordinary exp/(inc) Adj PAT EPS (`) Source: Company, Angel Research

4QFY13 102 102 62 61.1 6 6.3 16 15.8 85 17 16.8 1 0 14 29 28.6 6 20.5 23 22.7 23 5.7

4QFY12 140 140 90 64.4 6 4.0 12 8.8 108 32 22.7 2 1 16 45 32.4 13 29.1 32 22.9 32 7.9

% chg (yoy) (27.0) (27.0) (30.8) 14.6 30.7 (21.4) (46.1) (27.2) (28.4) (13.5) (35.6) (54.7) (27.7)

3QFY13 61 61 37 60.0 6 10.6 9 14.8 52 9 14.7 2 0 13 20 32.5 6 32.1 14 22.1 -

% chg (qoq) 66.3 66.3 69.5 (1.1) 78.5 62.3 89.9 (23.0) 11.6 5.3 46.1 (6.9) 71.2

FY2013 352 352 211 60.0 26 7.4 42 11.8 278 73 20.8 6 2 71 136 38.7 38 28.3 97 27.7 -

FY2012 469 469 292 62.3 21 4.5 35 7.4 348 121 25.8 3 3 52 168 35.7 47 28.3 120 25.6 120 29

% chg (yoy) (25.0) (25.0) (27.8) 24.0 19.3 (20.0) (39.6) 108.1 (34.0) 35.6 (18.9) (19.0) (18.9)

(27.7) (27.7)

14 3.3

71.2 71.2

97 24

(18.9) (18.9)

New launches to help pick up in sales in coming quarters


The company launched its second phase of project Ashvita (Hyderabad) and has already sold ~78 units (87%) during the quarter. The Mumbai residential project Eminente-Angelica has been completed ahead of schedule during the quarter. In 4QFY2013, the company sold 0.38msf (new sales) in its real estate business for a total transaction value of `151cr, implying a realization of ~`3,974/sqft. The company also signed eight lease deeds in Jaipur MWC and has added 2 new customers in its Chennai MWC during the quarter. Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers along with improving realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up in approvals and new launches anticipated in the current financial year. Out of the eight MOUs for land parcels signed during 3QFY2013, the company has successfully acquired two land parcels, ie one each in Bangalore and Mumbai during the quarter. Both the land parcels are for residential development with a potential of ~1mn sqft of development space. The company has also acquired another land parcel in Mumbai in the month of April 2013 which has a potential development of 0.55mn sqft.

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Exhibit 2: MLIFE: Sales Volume (Mn Sqft) & Value (` cr)


( ` cr) 350 300 250 200 150 100
172

Exhibit 3: MLIFE: Price Realization


6,000

0.6

0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2


155 151 86 ( ` per Sqft)

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000


5,059 5,167 4,951 4,062 3,256 4,110 3,969

0.3 0.2

0.1
302 62

0.1
53

0.2
52

1,000 -

0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Area sold 4Q13 Residential Sales (LHS)

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Slower execution disappoints revenue growth


MLIFE reported a weak set of numbers for the quarter on the standalone basis. It reported standalone revenue stood at `102cr, indicating a decline of 27% yoy against consensus estimate of `120cr. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected execution in two projects- Aura (NCR region) and Splendor phase II (Mumbai) during the quarter. The standalone EBITDA decreased by 46.1% yoy to `17cr in 4QFY2013 owing to lower-than-expected revenue recognition. The companys PAT reported a decline of 27.7% yoy to `23cr. During the quarter, the company sold 0.38msf (new sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of `151cr and sold 18 acres in its Chennai MWC. On the consolidated level, MLIFE reported a revenue of `362cr and PAT of `82cr in 4QFY2013, suggesting a profit for its subsidiaries at the net level.

Exhibit 4: Revenue and Revenue growth


180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 5 (11) (60) 62 (1) (15) 28 (27) 80 60 40 20 (20) (40) (60) (80)

Exhibit 5: EBITDA and EBITDA margins


50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 25 21 28 30 23 18.0 14.7 16.8 30.6 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 -

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

Revenue (` cr) - LHS

Growth %

EBIDTA (` cr) - LHS

EBITDA margin

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

April 22, 2013

4QFY13

3,974

50

0.1

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Operational Performance
Exhibit 6: Ongoing projects evolution by city (mn Sqft)
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

Exhibit 7: Forthcoming projects evolution (mn Sqft)


7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1Q12 Chennai 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Pune 1Q13 NCR 2Q13 Nagpur 3Q13 4Q13

Chennai

Mumbai

Pune

NCR

Nagpur

Hyderabad

Mumbai

Hyderabad

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8: Land bank evolution by city (mn Sqft)


16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1Q12 2Q12 Chennai 3Q12 Mumbai 4Q12 Pune 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Hyderabad Nasik Bangalore

Exhibit 9: New Chennai: Project execution schedule (%)


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 Iris Ph I 3Q13 4Q13 Aqualily Villas IB

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Execution schedule of Mumbai projects (%)


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Angelica Splendour

Exhibit 11: Execution schedule of NCR projects (%)


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Aura- IV 4Q12 1Q13 Aura- II 2Q13 3Q13 Aura- III 4Q13

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Investment arguments
In the right markets
MLIFE is a mid-market and premium housing developer. The company caters to strong demand present in tier-1 cities and small metros, which are typically enduser driven, as opposed to investor-led demand in super metros National Capital Region (NCR) and Mumbai. MLIFE, with its focus on upper-middle & middle class housing along with affordable housing, should see strong pent-up demand over the next few quarters, especially in light of the fact that housing loan growth has been lagging total credit growth, which can see a possible reversion as rate cuts start to take place, which should get reflected in mortgage rates.

Change in estimates
Considering the new launches lined up and five projects hitting the revenue recognition threshold, we are revising our FY2014 estimates and introducing FY2015 estimates. We expect a revenue of `888cr and `1,002cr for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. EBITDAM has been revised to 30.6% and 30.6% for FY2014E and FY2015E respectively. Due to better-than-expected operating performance and increasing contribution from MLIFEs subsidiary at the net profit level, we are now estimating a PAT of `159cr (earlier `148cr) and `177cr for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.

Exhibit 12: Revised estimates


FY2014E (` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) PAT EPS (`)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2015E Var. (%)


0.0 14.8 4.0 7.2 7.0

Earlier estimates
888 237 26.6 148 36.3

Revised estimates
888 272 30.6 159 38.8

Earlier estimates
1,002 307 30.6 177 43.4

Revised estimates
1,002 307 30.6 177 43.4

Var. (%)
-

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Outlook and valuation


We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversified geographic exposure in terms of ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects. We expect strong sales numbers over the coming quarters, following new project launches in Pune, Chennai and Mumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is currently trading at 1.1x and 1.0x on our FY2014E and FY2015E book value compared to its 3 year average of 1.3x. We value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and slightly adjust our NAV to `496/share, and apply a 10% discount to our SOTP value to arrive at a target price of `446, suggesting an 18% upside from the current levels. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.

Exhibit 13: SOTP Breakdown


600 500 26 400 300 200 100 339 28 72 31 496

Exhibit 14: MLIFE: One Year Forward P/B and 3yr Avg.
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Sep-10

Sep-11

May-11

May-10

May-12

Sep-12

Jul-11

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-10

Mar-11

Mar-10

Nov-10

Nov-11

Mar-12

Residential Commercial MWCJaipur MWC Chennai Current Investments

P/B (x)

Avg P/B (3 yr)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Angel Research

Company Background
Mahindra LIFEspaces Developers, a 51% owned subsidiary of the Mahindra and Mahindra Group, is in the business of real estate development, with a focus on residential projects and integrated infrastructure development such as business cities, industrial parks and SEZs. MLIFE has till date developed ~7mn sqft of residential projects in cities like Mumbai, Pune, NCR, and Chennai and is expanding its presence to cities like Hyderabad, Nagpur and Nasik by increasing its focus on the premium and mid-market segments. The company has also announced its plans to enter the affordable housing segment in tier-2 cities. MLIFE is also present in the integrated development space, with two operational projects through its subsidiaries MWC Jaipur and MWC Chennai. These are spread over an area of ~4,200 acres with presence of SEZs and DTAs.

April 22, 2013

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Profit & Loss statement (consolidated)


Y/E March (` cr) Operating income % chg Operating Expenses Personnel Other Total Expenditure EBITDA % chg (% of Net Sales) Depreciation& Amortisation EBIT % chg (% of Net Sales) Interest & other charges Other Income (% of sales) PBT % chg Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Extraordinary (Expense)/Inc. Minority Interest ADJ. PAT % chg (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg 2 78 22.2 18.8 19.2 19.2 19.6 5 108 37.8 17.7 26.5 26.5 37.7 10 119 10.1 17.0 29.2 29.2 10.1 15 141 18.7 19.1 34.6 34.6 18.7 17 159 12.2 17.9 38.8 38.8 12.2 19 177 11.8 17.7 43.4 43.4 11.8 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 418 22.3 253 18 34 305 113 55.3 27.0 7 106 38.8 25.4 9 22 2.2 119 16.4 38.3 32.3 81 612 46.4 366 23 47 436 176 56.6 28.8 8 168 58.6 27.5 11 15 1.9 172 44.7 58.7 34.1 113 701 14.6 427 29 53 510 191 8.5 27.3 9 182 8.1 26.0 21 27 3.0 188 9.3 59.3 31.5 129 738 5.3 398 35 63 496 242 26.4 32.8 9 233 28.1 31.6 31 34 4.2 236 25.5 79.9 33.9 156 888 20.3 497 42 76 616 272 12.5 30.6 8 264 13.2 29.7 40 41 4.5 265 12.2 89.7 33.9 175 1,002 12.8 561 48 86 695 307 12.8 30.6 8 299 13.1 29.8 49 46 4.9 296 11.8 100.3 33.9 196

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Balance Sheet (consolidated)


Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Emp. Stock Option Outstand. Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Others Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Goodwill Capital Work-in-Progress Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Other current assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 1,501 1,686 1,786 2,206 2,358 2,528 186 23 163 29 13 148 1,394 133 207 906 121 25 245 1,148 209 31 178 30 17 87 1,706 238 293 936 173 65 332 1,373 230 37 195 29 8 175 1,852 150 367 1,049 198 89 473 1,379 245 45 209 95 7 133 2,414 144 433 1,631 90 115 652 1,762 265 53 213 95 7 133 2,662 147 527 1,741 108 139 752 1,910 285 61 224 95 7 133 3,002 161 599 1,963 122 156 934 2,068 41 10 0 938 989 82 421 10 1,501 41 1 1,024 1,065 83 518 20 1,686 41 1 1,114 1,155 100 505 26 1,786 41 1 1,252 1,293 86 778 49 2,206 41 1 1,377 1,418 102 788 49 2,358 41 1 1,517 1,559 121 799 49 2,528 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Cash Flow Statement (consolidated)


Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in Working Capital Other income Direct taxes paid Others Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments Other income Others Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances (0) 89 (13) (20) 56 (12) 145 133 49 0 97 (19) (9) 70 105 133 238 (74) (13) (24) 9 (27) (88) 238 150 55 273 (30) (45) 198 (6) 150 144 30 10 (33) (23) 3 144 147 26 11 (37) (26) 14 147 161 (67) 17 (40) 22 (14) (27) 61 15 14 (14) (87) 27 (259) (21) 42 34 (3) (12) 41 14 (20) 46 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 119 3 (128) (22) (38) 172 8 (120) (15) (59) 188 6 (93) (27) (59) 236 7 (388) (34) (80) 265 8 (145) (41) (90) 296 8 (144) (46) (100)

April 22, 2013

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.14 1.2 11.4 0.18 1.1 14.9 0.16 0.9 8.6 0.4 2.1 7.5 0.36 1.9 6.6 0.32 1.6 6.1 0.4 731 85 255 831 0.5 550 88 242 641 0.5 517 97 288 615 0.4 662 71 414 704 0.4 693 41 416 695 0.5 675 42 443 669 7.4 8.2 7.9 10.6 12.0 10.2 10.5 11.8 10.3 11.7 12.6 10.9 11.6 12.4 11.2 12.2 13.1 11.4 25.4 0.7 0.3 5.6 0.0 0.1 11.1 27.5 0.7 0.4 7.9 0.0 0.2 15.7 26.0 0.7 0.5 8.1 0.0 0.2 16.2 31.6 0.7 0.4 8.3 0.0 0.3 16.7 29.7 0.7 0.4 8.2 0.0 0.4 16.3 29.8 0.7 0.4 8.6 0.0 0.3 17.3 19.2 19.2 20.8 (3.2) 242.3 26.5 26.5 28.5 (4.7) 260.8 29.2 29.2 31.4 (5.8) 282.8 34.6 34.6 36.8 (7.2) 316.7 38.8 38.8 40.8 (8.1) 347.4 43.4 43.4 45.4 (9.1) 381.7 19.7 18.1 1.6 (0.9) 4.4 16.2 1.2 14.3 13.3 1.4 (1.2) 3.0 10.3 1.1 13.0 12.0 1.3 (1.5) 2.7 9.9 1.1 10.9 10.3 1.2 (1.9) 2.9 9.0 1.0 9.7 9.3 1.1 (2.2) 2.5 8.0 0.9 8.7 8.3 1.0 (2.4) 2.2 7.1 0.9 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

April 22, 2013

10

Mahindra Lifespaces Developers | 4QFY2013 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

Mahindra Lifeapaces No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

April 22, 2013

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