24.04.

2013

Company Analysis - Overview

Ticker:

Total SA

FP FP

Currency:
Sector: Energy

Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Year:

Telephone
33-1-47-44-45-46
Revenue (M)
Website
www.total.com
No of Employees
Address
2 place Jean Miller La Defense 6 Paris La Defense Cedex, 92400 France
Share Price Performance in EUR
Price
37.49
1M Return
52 Week High
40.21
6M Return
52 Week Low
31.46
52 Wk Return
52 Wk Beta
0.90
YTD Return
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg
S&P
Moody's
Fitch

IG2
AAAa1
AA

Date
Date
Date

Total SA explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas.
The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene,
polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. Total operates
gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

Benchmark:
CAC 40 INDEX (CAC)

EN Paris: FP, Currency: EUR

12.04.2011
12.04.2002

Outlook
Outlook
Outlook

182'299
97'126
-1.6%
-0.1%
10.9%
-2.4%

Business Segments in EUR

Chemicals Net
Downstream Net
Upstream Net
Corporate Net
Intercompany

12%

STABLE
NEG
STABLE

Sales (M)
87524
72445
22143
187

0%

Sales (M)
103862
45981
17921
17648
14649
-17762

8%
7%
8%

Valuation Ratios
12/09
11.9x
7.7x
5.2x
0.9x
1.9x
5.1%

12/10
8.4x
5.5x
3.7x
0.6x
1.5x
5.8%

12/11
7.2x
4.4x
3.3x
0.5x
1.3x
5.8%

12/12
8.2x
4.8x
3.3x
0.5x
1.2x
6.0%

12/13E
7.2x
3.2x
0.5x
1.1x
6.4%

12/14E
7.1x
3.1x
0.5x
1.0x
6.5%

12/15E
6.7x
2.9x
0.5x
0.9x
6.7%

12/09
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
19.8
Operating Margin
13.5
Profit Margin
7.5
Return on Assets
6.9
Return on Equity
16.6
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/09
Current Ratio
1.4
Quick Ratio
0.8
EBIT/Interest
28.5
Tot Debt/Capital
0.3
Tot Debt/Equity
0.5
Eff Tax Rate %
47.3

12/10
20.0
13.4
7.5
7.8
18.7

12/11
19.8
14.6
7.4
8.0
19.1

12/12
17.7
12.0
5.9
6.4
15.2

12/13E
18.5
13.1
6.6
10.6
15.4

12/14E
19.0
12.7
6.9
11.3
14.4

12/15E
20.6
13.0
7.4
11.9
13.8

P/E
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
P/S
P/B
Div Yield
Profitability Ratios %

Geographic Segments in EUR

Rest of Europe
France
Africa
North America
Rest of the World
Unallocated- Excise taxes

48%

48%
8%
40%
21%

Chemicals Net

Downstream Net

Rest of Europe
France
Africa
North America

Upstream Net

Corporate Net

Rest of the World

Unallocated- Excise taxes

12/10
1.4
0.8
40.6
0.3
0.5
48.6

12/11
1.4
0.7
34.1
0.3
0.5
52.8

12/12
1.4
0.7
32.6
0.3
0.4
54.7

Current Capitalization in EUR

Common Shares Outstanding (M)
Market Capitalization (M)
Cash and ST Investments (M)
Total Debt (M)
Preferred Equity (M)
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)
Investments (M)
Enterprise Value (M)

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

2257.5
88698.9
17031.0
33290.0
0.0
0.0
1281.0
106238.9

Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

Total SA
Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price

50

100%
14%

11%

14%

9%

9%

9%

9%

80%
32%

37%

34%

38%

41%

39%

41%

9%

12%

11%

11%

11%

32%

26%

26%

22%

22%

45
40
35
30

60%

Price

Brokers' Target Price

60
50
40
30

25
20

40%
62%

59%

15

Date

Buy

Hold

Sell

Date

29-Mar-13
28-Feb-13
31-Jan-13
31-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
31-Oct-12
28-Sep-12
31-Aug-12
31-Jul-12
29-Jun-12
31-May-12
30-Apr-12

67%
67%
63%
62%
59%
50%
52%
50%
53%
51%
51%
54%

22%
22%
26%
26%
32%
41%
39%
41%
38%
34%
37%
32%

11%
11%
11%
12%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
14%
11%
14%

24-Apr-13
23-Apr-13
22-Apr-13
19-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
17-Apr-13
16-Apr-13
15-Apr-13
12-Apr-13
11-Apr-13
10-Apr-13
9-Apr-13
8-Apr-13
5-Apr-13
4-Apr-13
3-Apr-13
2-Apr-13
1-Apr-13
29-Mar-13
28-Mar-13
27-Mar-13
26-Mar-13
25-Mar-13
22-Mar-13
21-Mar-13
20-Mar-13
19-Mar-13
18-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
14-Mar-13

Price Target Price

37.49
36.95
35.79
35.54
35.28
35.25
36.19
36.55
37.19
37.51
37.46
37.11
36.75
36.75
37.32
37.51
38.20
37.36
37.36
37.36
37.44
37.70
37.80
38.10
38.25
38.73
38.40
38.73
38.58
38.97

45.36
45.36
45.40
45.40
45.40
45.40
45.40
45.25
45.33
45.69
45.65
45.62
45.65
45.65
45.65
45.78
45.78
45.78
45.78
45.78
45.78
45.78
45.78
45.74
45.74
45.74
45.69
45.69
45.69
45.69

Broker

Analyst

Societe Generale
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co
Tudor Pickering & Co
Barclays
Grupo Santander
Deutsche Bank
RBC Capital Markets
Jefferies
Nomura
AlphaValue
Exane BNP Paribas
JPMorgan
Hamburger Sparkasse
Macquarie
Simmons & Company International
Investec
Credit Suisse
Independent Research GmbH
Day by Day
Raymond James
Goldman Sachs
VTB Capital
HSBC
Canaccord Genuity Corp
Banco Sabadell
CM - CIC Securities(ESN)
S&P Capital IQ
Natixis
Ahorro Corporacion Financiera SA
EVA Dimensions

IRENE HIMONA
OSWALD CLINT
ROBERT KESSLER
LYDIA RAINFORTH
JASON KENNEY
LUCAS HERRMANN
PETER HUTTON
IAIN REID
THEEPAN JOTHILINGAM
ALEXANDRE ANDLAUER
ALEJANDRO DEMICHELIS
NITIN SHARMA
INGO SCHMIDT
JASON D GAMMEL
JEFFREY A DIETERT
STUART JOYNER
KIM FUSTIER
SVEN DIERMEIER
VALERIE GASTALDY
BERTRAND HODEE
MICHELE DELLA VIGNA
COLIN SMITH
PAUL SPEDDING
GORDON GRAY
JORGE GONZALEZ SADORNIL
JEAN-LUC ROMAIN
CHRISTINE TISCARENO
ANNE PUMIR
VIRGINIA PEREZ REPES
CRAIG STERLING

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Recommendation
buy
outperform
accumulate
underweight
buy
buy
outperform
buy
neutral
reduce
outperform
overweight
hold
neutral
overweight
hold
neutral
hold
hold
market perform
Sell/Cautious
buy
overweight
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy

CA Cheuvreux

Morgan Stanley

EVA

Landesbank

Natixis

Ahorro

CM - CIC

S&P Capital IQ

HSBC

Canaccord

Raymond

Banco Sabadell

Target Price

Day by Day

mars.13

Investec

fvr.13

Macquarie

janv.13

VTB Capital

Price

dc.12

Goldman Sachs

Sell

nov.12

Independent

Hold

oct.12

Credit Suisse

Buy

sept.12

Simmons &

aot.12

JPMorgan

juil.12

Hamburger

juin.12

Exane BNP

0
mai.12

Nomura

0%

0
AlphaValue

5
avr.12

10

10
Jefferies

50%

RBC Capital

52%

Grupo

50%

Deutsche Bank

53%

Barclays

51%

20

Tudor Pickering

51%

67%

Societe

54%

20%

67%

63%

Sanford C.

Broker Recommendation

Target price in EUR

Target

Date

47.00
52.00
44.00
44.00
45.30
44.00
44.00
48.00
40.00
36.40
48.00
49.00

23-Apr-13
23-Apr-13
23-Apr-13
22-Apr-13
19-Apr-13
19-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
17-Apr-13
16-Apr-13
16-Apr-13
15-Apr-13
15-Apr-13
12-Apr-13
12-Apr-13
4-Apr-13
4-Apr-13
28-Mar-13
20-Mar-13
1-Mar-13
27-Feb-13
21-Feb-13
15-Feb-13
14-Feb-13
13-Feb-13
7-Feb-13
6-Feb-13
17-Jan-13

42.00
37.00
44.00
40.00

42.00
50.00
46.00
45.00
47.10
54.00
48.00
46.50
49.00

24.04.2013

Total SA

Company Analysis - Ownership

Ownership Type

Ownership Statistics
Shares Outstanding (M)
Float
Short Interest (M)
Short Interest as % of Float
Days to Cover Shorts
Institutional Ownership
Retail Ownership
Insider Ownership

France
United States
Belgium
Norway
Qatar
Luxembourg
Britain
Others

34%

33.81%
66.18%
0.01%

Geographic Ownership

Geographic Ownership Distribution

0%

2257.5
86.0%

66%

44.08%
17.59%
11.11%
5.21%
5.20%
3.89%
2.65%
10.26%

3% 10%
4%
5%

44%

5%
11%

Institutional Ownership

Retail Ownership

Insider Ownership

Pricing data is in EUR

Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name
AMUNDI
TOTAL SA
GROUPE BRUXELLES LAM
QATAR HOLDINGS LLC
NORGES BANK
NATIONALE A PORTEFEU
BLACKROCK
VANGUARD GROUP INC
CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN
AMUNDI
FRANKLIN RESOURCES
NATIXIS ASSET MANAGE
ONTARIO TEACHERS PEN
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL
AVIVA PLC
GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT
LBPAM
WADDELL & REED FINAN
FIRST EAGLE INVESTME
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor
Corporation
Holding Company
Government
Others

18%
61.93%
11.96%
10.41%
10.38%
5.32%

France

United States

Belgium

Norway

Qatar

Luxembourg

Britain

Others

TOP 20 ALL

Position
180'919'481
108'732'635
94'636'768
47'275'059
47'038'683
33'122'869
27'201'788
23'453'323
16'544'065
15'777'952
13'366'774
11'704'762
11'200'000
10'685'170
10'451'098
8'398'572
7'845'725
7'573'598
7'054'684
6'633'821

Position Change
0
0
559'401
0
0
-2'333'425
-196'341
266'904
-3'190'535
-708'338
-298'176
-4'002'760
0
187'438
0
21'870
53'504
-6'360
0
34'495

Market Value
6'782'671'343
4'076'386'486
3'547'932'432
1'772'341'962
1'763'480'226
1'241'776'359
1'019'795'032
879'265'079
620'236'997
591'515'420
501'120'357
438'811'527
419'888'000
400'587'023
391'811'664
314'862'464
294'136'230
283'934'189
264'480'103
248'701'949

% of Ownership
7.65%
4.60%
4.00%
2.00%
1.99%
1.40%
1.15%
0.99%
0.70%
0.67%
0.56%
0.49%
0.47%
0.45%
0.44%
0.35%
0.33%
0.32%
0.30%
0.28%

Report Date

Holder Name

Position

Position Change

Market Value

% of Ownership

Report Date

DESMAREST THIERRY
MARGERIE CHRISTOPHE DE
COLLOMB BERTRAND P
LAMARCHE GERARD
PEBEREAU MICHEL

186'576
105'556
4'932
2'775
2'356

31.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
14.03.2012
31.12.2011
31.12.2012
22.04.2013
31.03.2013
31.03.2013
31.12.2012
28.02.2013
28.03.2013
31.12.2011
23.04.2013
28.03.2013
30.11.2012
31.01.2013
31.12.2012
30.09.2012
31.03.2013

Source
13G
20F
20F
Research
Research
20F
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
Research
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG

Top 5 Insiders:

6'994'734
3'957'294
184'901
104'035
88'326

0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

Source
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.12.2012

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

20F
20F
20F
20F
20F

Country
FRANCE
FRANCE
BELGIUM
QATAR
NORWAY
FRANCE
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
FRANCE
UNITED STATES
FRANCE
CANADA
UNITED STATES
BRITAIN
UNITED STATES
FRANCE
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
GERMANY

Institutional Ownership
5%
10%

10%
63%
12%

Investment Advisor

Corporation

Government

Others

Holding Company

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Total SA
Financial information is in EUR (M)
Periodicity:

Fiscal Year

Equivalent Estimates
12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

102'540

104'652

100'481

117'057

132'689

136'824

160'331

112'153

140'476

166'550

182'299

180'404

179'899

177'014

92'626
662

92'021
667

83'795
635

92'888
510

108'559
569

111'523
594

136'644
612

97'029
650

121'591
715

142'260
776

160'437
805

9'914
597

16'686
737
75
-3'845

24'169
1'214

24'130
1'731

25'301
1'783

23'687
1'000

15'124
530

18'885
465

24'290
713

21'862
671

23'609

22'900

23'067

-1'955

-3'461

-3'592

-2'412

-1'786

-2'615

-3'077

-2'716
23'846

24'495

25'311

11'959
5.20
2.38
0.46

12'366
5.31
2.43
0.46

13'105
5.58
2.53
0.45

33'435

34'266

36'421

Income Statement
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Income
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses
(Research & Dev Costs)
Operating Income
- Interest Expense
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)

-1'671

12'631
629
59
-629

Pretax Income
- Income Tax Expense

10'988
5'034

12'572
5'353

19'719
8'570

24'910
11'806

25'860
13'720

27'110
13'575

25'099
14'146

16'380
7'751

21'035
10'228

26'654
14'073

23'907
13'066

Income Before XO Items

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax
- Minority Interests

5'954
0
13

7'219
0
194

11'149
0
281

13'104
461
370

12'140
5
367

13'535
0
354

10'953
0
363

8'629
0
182

10'807
0
236

12'581
0
305

10'841
0
147

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

2.23

2.77

4.48

5.40

5.09

5.80

4.71

3.78

4.71

5.44

4.72

Net Income Adjusted*

EPS Adjusted
Dividends Per Share
Payout Ratio %

5'941
2.23
1.03
47.4

7'025
2.78
1.18
43.8

9'612
3.91
1.35
31.6

12'273
4.85
1.62
31.3

12'585
5.49
1.87
38.5

12'203
5.41
2.07
37.6

13'920
6.23
2.28
51.1

7'784
3.49
2.28
63.4

10'288
4.58
2.28
50.7

11'424
5.08
2.28
43.9

12'361
5.45
2.34
51.8

Total Shares Outstanding

Diluted Shares Outstanding

2'609
2'664

2'448
2'541

2'384
2'426

2'323
2'362

2'265
2'312

2'244
2'274

2'229
2'247

2'233
2'237

2'237
2'244

2'254
2'257

2'258
2'267

15'918

17'936

22'408

29'821

29'422

30'726

29'887

22'234

28'045

32'919

32'343

EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

Total Current Assets

+ Cash & Near Cash Items
+ Short Term Investments
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable
+ Inventories
+ Other Current Assets

31319
4'966
1'508
13'087
6'515
5'243

29513
4'836
1'404
12'357
6'137
4'779

32940
3'860
477
14'025
9'264
5'314

43753
4'318
334
19'612
12'690
6'799

42787
2'493
3'908
17'393
11'746
7'247

48238
5'988
1'264
19'129
13'851
8'006

47058
12'321
187
15'287
9'621
9'642

49757
11'662
311
15'719
13'867
8'198

58206
14'489
1'205
18'159
15'600
8'753

63663
14'025
700
20'049
18'691
10'198

67517
15'469
1'562
19'206
18'055
13'225

Total Long-Term Assets

+ Long Term Investments
Gross Fixed Assets
Accumulated Depreciation
+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Other Long Term Assets

54'010
1'221
97'592
59'000
38'592
14'197

50'450
1'162
93'819
57'533
36'286
13'002

53'827
2'714

34'906
16'207

62'391
1'516
106'034
65'466
40'568
20'307

62'436
1'250
102'211
61'635
40'576
20'610

65'303
1'291
102'845
61'378
41'467
22'545

71'252
1'165
108'822
62'680
46'142
23'945

77'996
1'162
121'422
69'832
51'590
25'244

85'512
4'590
131'920
76'956
54'964
25'958

100'386
3'674
147'144
82'687
64'457
32'255

104'312
1'190
156'686
87'354
69'332
33'790

Total Current Liabilities

+ Accounts Payable
+ Short Term Borrowings
+ Other Short Term Liabilities

25'182
10'236
5'096
9'850

23'109
10'304
3'835
8'970

26'777
11'672
3'957
11'148

33'428
16'406
3'953
13'069

33'522
15'080
5'933
12'509

35'662
18'183
4'673
12'806

34'327
14'815
7'880
11'632

34'408
15'383
7'117
11'908

40'448
18'450
9'653
12'345

46'702
22'086
9'675
14'941

49'019
21'648
11'016
16'355

Total Long Term Liabilities

+ Long Term Borrowings
+ Other Long Term Borrowings

26'800
10'157
16'643

25'388
9'783
15'605

27'572
11'289
16'283

31'233
13'793
17'440

30'553
14'174
16'379

32'179
14'876
17'303

34'033
16'191
17'842

39'806
19'437
20'369

41'999
20'783
21'216

47'958
22'557
25'401

48'617
22'274
26'343

Total Liabilities
+ Long Preferred Equity
+ Minority Interest
+ Share Capital & APIC
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity

51'982
724
37'386
-4'763

48'497
396
664
51'742
-21'336

54'349
0
810
38'067
-6'459

64'661
0
838
43'655
-3'010

64'075
0
827
47'524
-7'203

67'841
0
842
54'786
-9'928

68'360
0
958
34'213
14'779

74'214
0
987
33'042
19'510

82'447
0
857
33'082
27'332

94'660
0
1'352
5'909
62'128

97'636
0
1'281
5'915
66'997

Total Shareholders Equity

33'347

31'466

32'418

41'483

41'148

45'700

49'950

53'539

61'271

69'389

74'193

Total Liabilities & Equity

85'329

79'963

86'767

106'144

105'223

113'541

118'310

127'753

143'718

164'049

171'829

12.51
11.45

12.42
11.60

13.26
11.93

17.49
15.61

17.81
15.73

19.99
17.92

21.98
19.59

23.53
20.17

27.00
23.02

30.18
24.68

32.30
26.60

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

34.93

37.92

41.64

Balance Sheet

Book Value Per Share

Tangible Book Value Per Share

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

5'941
6'004
-875
-64

7'025
5'305
-225
382

10'868
5'722
-1'675
-253

12'273
5'652
598
-3'854

11'768
5'292
-689
-310

13'181
5'425
556
-1'476

10'590
6'200
-692
2'571

8'447
7'110
119
-3'316

10'571
9'160
-742
-496

12'276
8'629
370
-1'739

10'694
10'481
203
1'084

12'036

12'709

13'858

Cash From Operating Activities

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets
+ Capital Expenditures
+ Increase in Investments
+ Decrease in Investments
+ Other Investing Activities

11'006
290
-6'942

12'487
315
-6'708
-476
743
392

14'662
225
-7'403
-996
966
-504

14'669
274
-8'848

16'061
413
-9'910

12'360
138
-11'849
-1'340
2'943
-160

18'493
1'534
-13'812
-945
2'472
-1'206

19'536
1'439
-17'950
-1'212
6'564
-4'804

22'462
1'418
-19'905
-1'949
4'101
-737

-20'793

-20'832

699
-776

18'669
130
-11'861
-1'220
2'367
-471

-21'713

135
-1'668

17'686
569
-10'549
-1'153
982
-15

Cash From Investing Activities

+ Dividends Paid
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Capital Stocks
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks
+ Other Financing Activities

-6'849
-2'514
746
1'642

-7'712
-4'293
-2'195
2'249
0
371
-3'554
-528

-10'107
-3'510
-951
2'878

-9'574
-3'999
-6
3'722

-10'166
-4'510
-2'654
3'220

-11'055
-4'945
1'437
3'009

-10'268
-5'086
-3'124
5'522

-11'957
-5'098
-1'548
3'789

-15'963
-5'140
-2'974
4'069

-17'072
-5'184
-2'754
5'279

461
-2'945
-155

-5'734
-2'571
-2'153
2'657
-549
69
-3'994
-342

17
-3'189
-311

511
-3'830
-3'805

89
-1'526
1'356

262
-1'189
145

63

90

481

-126

-942

-473

32
-68
-1'251

Cash From Financing Activities

-2'765

-6'883

-7'950

-5'066

-7'407

-4'025

-1'281

-2'751

-3'709

-4'037

-3'946

Net Changes in Cash

1'392

-130

-1'000

-504

-920

3'495

6'333

-659

2'827

-464

1'444

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)

4'064

5'779

7'259

5'821

6'151

7'137

6'808

511

4'681

1'586

2'557

1'195

2'819

4'672

Free Cash Flow To Firm

Free Cash Flow To Equity
Free Cash Flow per Share

4'387

6'140

1.53

2.28

7'676
7'142
3.00

6'460
8'022
2.37

6'964
10'280
2.68

8'027
8'272
3.16

7'244
11'384
3.05

790
3'047
0.23

4'920
8'456
2.09

1'923
4'120
0.71

2'861
6'500
1.13

Cash Flows
Net Income
+ Depreciation & Amortization
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital

1'346
-1'543

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings
EV to EBIT
EV to EBITDA
Price to Sales
Price to Book
Dividend Yield

15.2x
9.9x
6.2x
0.9x
2.7x
3.0%

13.3x
7.8x
5.5x
0.9x
3.0x
3.2%

8.9x
6.4x
4.8x
1.0x
3.0x
3.4%

10.3x
5.7x
4.6x
1.1x
3.0x
3.1%

10.6x
5.7x
4.7x
0.9x
3.1x
3.4%

9.7x
5.6x
4.6x
0.9x
2.8x
3.6%

8.2x
4.2x
3.3x
0.5x
1.8x
5.9%

11.9x
7.7x
5.2x
0.9x
1.9x
5.1%

8.4x
5.5x
3.7x
0.6x
1.5x
5.8%

7.2x
4.4x
3.3x
0.5x
1.3x
5.8%

8.2x
4.8x
3.3x
0.5x
1.2x
6.0%

7.2x

7.1x

6.7x

3.2x
0.5x
1.1x
6.4%

3.1x
0.5x
1.0x
6.5%

2.9x
0.5x
0.9x
6.7%

Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Margin
Profit Margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity

15.5%
9.7%
5.8%
6.8%
17.9%

17.1%
12.1%
6.7%
8.5%
22.3%

22.3%
16.6%
10.8%
13.0%
35.1%

25.5%
20.6%
10.5%
12.7%
34.0%

22.2%
18.2%
8.9%
11.1%
29.1%

22.5%
18.5%
9.6%
12.1%
30.9%

18.6%
14.8%
6.6%
9.1%
22.6%

19.8%
13.5%
7.5%
6.9%
16.6%

20.0%
13.4%
7.5%
7.8%
18.7%

19.8%
14.6%
7.4%
8.0%
19.1%

17.7%
12.0%
5.9%
6.4%
15.2%

18.5%
13.1%
6.6%
10.6%
15.4%

19.0%
12.7%
6.9%
11.3%
14.4%

20.6%
13.0%
7.4%
11.9%
13.8%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
Tot Debt/Capital
Tot Debt/Equity

1.24
0.78
14.45
0.31
0.46

1.28
0.80
20.08
0.30
0.43

1.23
0.69
22.64
0.32
0.47

1.31
0.73
19.91
0.30
0.43

1.28
0.71
13.94
0.33
0.49

1.35
0.74
14.19
0.30
0.43

1.37
0.81
23.69
0.33
0.48

1.45
0.80
28.54
0.33
0.50

1.44
0.84
40.61
0.33
0.50

1.36
0.74
34.07
0.32
0.46

1.38
0.74
32.58
0.31
0.45

1.18
7.71

1.27
8.23

1.21
7.62

1.21
6.96

1.26
7.17

1.25
7.49

1.38
9.32

0.91
7.23

1.03
8.29

1.08
8.72

1.09
9.29

45.8%

42.6%

43.5%

47.4%

53.1%

50.1%

56.4%

47.3%

48.6%

52.8%

54.7%

Ratio Analysis

Others
Asset Turnover
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Accounts Payable Turnover
Inventory Turnover
Effective Tax Rate

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

TOTAL SA
Latest Fiscal Year:
52-Week High
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
52-Week Low Date
Daily Volume

Current Price (4/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change
52-Week Low % Change
Total Common Shares (M)

Market Capitalization
Total Debt
Preferred Stock
Minority Interest
Cash and Equivalents

Enterprise Value
Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

EPS

P/E

Revenue Growth
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin

LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
1 Year
5 Year
1 Year
5 Year
LTM
CY+1
CY+2

ROYAL DUTCH SHA

BP PLC

ENI SPA

EXXON MOBIL
CORP

STATOIL ASA

CHEVRON CORP

CONOCOPHILLIPS

IMPERIAL OIL

12/2012
42.00
14.09.2012
33.42
01.06.2012
2'161'740

12/2012
2'323.50
30.01.2013
1'956.50
18.05.2012
716'202

12/2012
482.05
30.01.2013
389.50
18.05.2012
7'753'519

12/2012
19.59
18.01.2013
14.94
25.07.2012
7'350'269

12/2012
93.67
19.10.2012
77.13
05.06.2012
15'571'115

12/2012
155.00
24.09.2012
132.60
18.04.2013
1'883'582

12/2012
121.56
25.03.2013
95.73
04.06.2012
6'746'638

12/2012
62.05
30.01.2013
50.62
04.06.2012
7'527'672

12/2012
48.32
14.09.2012
38.58
23.04.2013
1'297'056

37.49

2'169.50

455.10

17.88

89.30

136.80

117.48

57.78

39.18

-10.7%
12.2%
2'257.5

-6.6%
10.9%
6'331.2

-5.6%
16.8%
19'135.8

-8.7%
19.7%
3'622.8

-4.7%
15.8%
4'502.0

-11.7%
3.2%
3'180.0

-3.4%
22.7%
1'946.7

-6.9%
14.1%
1'220.0

-18.9%
1.6%
848.0

PETROBRAS-PREF OCCIDENTAL PETE

12/2012
23.84
14.09.2012
16.40
01.03.2013
34'735'500

ZAZA ENERGY
CORP

BG GROUP PLC

12/2012
93.78
01.05.2012
72.43
16.11.2012
5'486'325

12/2012
1'468.50
02.05.2012
991.00
19.11.2012
2'408'673

19.18

81.69

-19.5%
17.0%
13'044.5

-12.9%
12.8%
805.5

MOL

PAK STATE OIL

12/2012
5.18
02.05.2012
1.13
23.04.2013
729'586

12/2012
19'345.00
05.11.2012
14'800.00
30.05.2012
17'902

06/2012
209.78
06.03.2013
161.46
22.06.2012
739'400

1'072.00

1.17

16'020.00

198.37

-27.0%
8.2%
3'614.0

-77.4%
3.5%
102.5

-17.2%
8.2%
104.5

-5.4%
22.9%
247.0

88'699

139'820

86'887

64'979

400'104

436'207

228'228

70'549

33'209

238'434

65'813

36'477

120

1'674'395

48'995

33'290.0
1'281.0
17'031.0

37'754.0
1'433.0
18'550.0

48'797.0
1'206.0
20'114.0

24'463.0
3'514.0
8'000.0

11'581.0
5'797.0
9'582.0

119'400.0
700.0
80'100.0

12'192.0
1'308.0
21'205.0

21'725.0
440.0
3'618.0

1'647.0
482.0

196'350.3
2'354.0
49'302.8

7'623.0
32.0
1'592.0

15'507.0
57.0
4'434.0

149.8
34.6

1'089'702.0
547'666.0
347'509.0

45'772.6
1'624.0

220'523
Valuation

106'239

234'135

162'561

407'900

476'207

182'299.0
182'299.0
180'404.3
179'899.4
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
32'343.0
31'867.0
33'435.0
34'266.3
3.3x
3.3x
3.2x
3.2x
5.10
4.73
5.20
5.31
7.9x
7.9x
7.2x
7.1x
9.5%
4.5%
(1.7%)
1.0%
17.5%
18.5%
19.0%

467'153.0
467'153.0
456'217.3
465'270.1
0.5x
0.5x
0.5x
0.5x
52'114.0
52'114.0
60'992.8
62'509.0
4.6x
4.6x
3.9x
3.8x
4.11
4.25
4.12
4.20
7.8x
8.1x
8.0x
7.9x
(0.6%)
3.4%
(6.8%)
(0.7%)
11.2%
13.4%
13.4%

375'580.0
370'866.0
343'514.9
352'925.0
0.4x
0.4x
0.5x
0.4x
20'442.0
22'056.0
38'137.7
40'863.4
7.9x
7.3x
4.1x
3.9x
0.22
0.61
0.81
0.93
11.4x
20.5x
8.5x
7.5x
0.0%
5.1%
(55.4%)
(11.4%)
5.9%
11.1%
11.6%

127'220.0
127'220.0
115'218.0
120'807.1
0.7x
0.7x
0.7x
0.7x
24'564.0
24'564.0
28'443.3
29'662.0
3.5x
3.5x
2.9x
2.7x
1.12
1.12
1.93
2.06
16.0x
16.0x
9.2x
8.7x
16.1%
5.9%
(4.5%)
(1.1%)
19.3%
24.7%
24.6%

84'956

420'714.0
426'252.0
434'881.4
442'168.4
0.9x
0.9x
1.0x
0.9x
65'769.0
67'270.0
80'446.2
82'444.2
6.0x
5.9x
5.2x
5.0x
7.56
7.89
7.96
8.16
11.3x
11.3x
11.2x
10.9x
(3.0%)
2.4%
(5.6%)
(1.2%)
15.8%
18.5%
18.6%

705'700.0
705'734.0
639'860.8
655'931.6
0.7x
0.7x
0.8x
0.8x
265'400.0
266'236.0
243'800.4
250'198.9
1.8x
1.8x
2.0x
2.0x
21.66
16.49
17.08
6.3x
8.3x
8.0x
9.3%
(2.9%)
1.3%
8.6%
37.7%
38.1%
38.1%

45.7%
31.0%
1.045x
0.510x
48.201x

20.0%
16.6%
0.724x
0.368x
22.424x

41.2%
29.0%
2.212x
1.300x
13.601x

41.3%
28.1%
0.996x
0.670x
25.065x

7.0%
6.3%
0.172x
0.030x
78.954x

37.4%
27.2%
0.448x
0.148x
88.467x

AA12.04.2011
Aa1
30.08.2005

AA
03.09.2009
Aa1
20.07.2005

A
24.09.2010
-

A
17.01.2012
A3
16.07.2012

AAA
16.12.1985
WR
16.08.1993

AA03.08.2007
Aa2
23.06.2005

222'580.0
222'580.0
238'329.9
232'880.3
0.9x
0.9x
0.9x
1.0x
48'426.0
48'426.0
56'229.2
57'497.3
4.2x
4.2x
4.0x
4.0x
12.10
12.12
12.44
12.57
9.7x
9.7x
9.4x
9.3x
(5.8%)
(0.1%)
(5.4%)
7.1%
21.8%
23.6%
24.7%

89'096

34'374

387'836

71'876

66'829

57'967.0
96'888.0
54'798.9
57'508.0
1.5x
0.9x
1.5x
1.5x
19'396.0
20'383.0
21'915.3
23'665.4
4.6x
4.4x
3.8x
3.6x
5.37
6.09
5.49
6.03
9.5x
9.5x
10.5x
9.6x
(9.7%)
(13.3%)
(10.4%)
(8.8%)
21.0%
40.0%
41.2%

29'715.0
29'715.0
31'394.5
32'737.5
1.3x
1.3x
1.2x
1.2x
5'618.0
5'618.0
5'542.4
5'980.0
6.7x
6.7x
6.8x
6.4x
4.34
4.39
4.11
4.26
8.9x
8.9x
9.5x
9.2x
1.9%
3.9%
13.9%
3.1%
18.9%
17.7%
18.3%

281'379.5
281'379.5
292'543.5
307'617.6
1.4x
1.4x
1.5x
1.5x
53'158.1
53'158.2
67'257.7
78'979.6
7.6x
7.6x
6.4x
5.9x
1.62
1.62
2.43
2.77
11.8x
11.8x
7.9x
6.9x
15.2%
10.3%
(13.7%)
0.2%
18.9%
23.0%
25.7%

24'172.0
24'172.0
26'160.1
26'509.6
2.8x
2.8x
2.7x
2.6x
13'701.0
13'701.0
15'832.3
17'037.3
4.9x
4.9x
4.5x
4.0x
7.09
7.09
7.08
7.55
11.5x
11.5x
11.5x
10.8x
1.0%
4.0%
(3.3%)
6.0%
56.7%
60.5%
64.3%

18'933.0
21'665.0
20'017.2
22'880.3
3.7x
3.3x
3.4x
3.1x
10'198.0
10'561.0
10'751.8
12'863.8
6.9x
6.7x
6.3x
5.6x
1.29
1.02
1.26
1.52
16.0x
12.2x
12.9x
10.7x
7.2%
13.9%
6.5%
6.1%
48.7%
53.7%
56.2%

205.2
1.6x
90.7
3.6x
-0.29
-0.72
1067.4%
-

235

5'527'070.0
5'527'070.0
5'346'506.4
5'411'484.9
0.6x
0.6x
0.5x
0.5x
538'891.0
538'891.0
609'268.3
658'734.4
5.8x
5.8x
4.7x
4.2x
1'431.81
1'690.35
2'017.04
2'271.77
9.5x
10.6x
7.9x
7.1x
3.4%
14.4%
(8.3%)
1.7%
9.8%
11.4%
12.2%

2'964'254

92'029

45.3%
31.0%
1.066x
0.888x
14.650x

10.1%
9.1%
0.293x
0.207x
-

57.2%
36.2%
3.694x
2.766x
3.038x

19.0%
16.0%
0.556x
0.440x
105.392x

46.9%
31.9%
1.468x
1.048x
15.198x

9091.5%
98.9%
5.939x

64.1%
32.7%
2.022x
1.377x
11.685x

91.6%
47.8%
9.355x

A
07.02.2012
A1
26.04.2012

AAA
16.10.1992
WR
15.10.2002

BBB
17.11.2011
-

A
23.06.2008
A1
19.04.2012

BB+
25.11.2008
-

1'024'423.6
1'077'980.3
1'170'622.0
1'277'200.4
26'075.6
25'714.5
24'921.5
36.67
38.05
49.67
57.56
5.2x
5.2x
4.0x
3.4x
24.8%
16.6%
3.0%
23.4%
2.2%
2.0%

Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %
Total Debt / Capital %
Total Debt / EBITDA
Net Debt / EBITDA
EBITDA / Int. Expense

8.9%
8.1%
0.252x
-0.186x
200.107x

Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating
S&P LT Credit Rating Date
Moody's LT Credit Rating
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date

AA
01.07.1987
Aa1
27.02.2009

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |