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Market Outlook

April 25, 2013

Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat mirroring flat opening trades in the
SGX Nifty and mixed opening across major Asian bourses.

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

0.0

Nifty

0.0

10 19,179
3

5,837

(0.4)

(24)

6,284

SMALL CAP

0.4

22

6,051

BSE HC

0.7

56

8,520

BSE PSU

(0.3)

(22)

6,823

BANKEX

(0.3)

(47) 14,348

AUTO

0.1

12 10,466

METAL

The US markets, after moving mostly higher over the course of the three previous
sessions, showed a lack of direction throughout the trading session on Wednesday.
The lackluster performance came as traders remained uncertain about the nearterm outlook for the markets. Meanwhile, the European markets extended their
recent gains to a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday. The larger than
expected decrease in German business confidence added to speculation that the
ECB might cut rates in its upcoming meeting scheduled next week on Thursday.

MID CAP

(0.3)

(23)

8,636

Meanwhile, Indian markets were closed yesterday on account of a holiday. On


Tuesday, Indian markets reversed early losses to end largely unchanged ahead of
the F&O expiry slated for Thursday. The Indian economy has bottomed out and
growth will pick up to 6.4% in the current fiscal, PMEAC Chairman Rangarajan
said while releasing the Economic Review for 2012-13, helping spur some buying
late in the session.

OIL & GAS

0.5

44

8,710

BSE IT

0.6

37

5,797

(Pts)

(Close)

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,144 / 5,824 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,246 19,312 / 5,857 5,877 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,144 / 5,824 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,078 18,976 / 5,804 5,772 levels.

Global Indices

Dow Jones

Chg (%)

(0.3)

(43) 14,676

NASDAQ

0.0

3,270

FTSE

0.4

26

6,432

Nikkei

2.3

314 13,843

Hang Seng

1.7

376 22,183

Straits Times

1.2

38

3,323

Shanghai Com

1.5

34

2,218

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

(0.9)

(0.4)

$40.8

Indian ADR

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

WIT

(0.4)

(0.0)

$7.8

SENSEX

18,976

19,078

19,144

19,246

19,312

IBN

1.0

0.5

$46.2

NIFTY

5,772

5,804

5,824

5,857

5,877

HDB

2.0

0.8

$42.2

News Analysis

Advances / Declines

Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio Sign Pact for International Data Connectivity
Bharti Airtel buys Warid Telecom Uganda, ups Africa reach
Jet Airways announces strategic alliance with Etihad
Result Review: HDFC Bank, Axis Bank
Result Preview: Hindustan Zinc, Idea, Fag Bearings, Infotech,

` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

3,677

2,644

1,033

1,629

56,380

358

468

(109)

(435)

(7,602)

FII Derivatives (April 23, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Index Futures

6,132

5,201

931

11,799

Stock Futures

8,910

9,471

(561)

26,144

Price (`)

chg (%)

Company

71

8.7

271

Gainers / Losers
Gainers

chg (%)

Jindal Steel

329

(3.8)

4.8

Motherson Sumi

184

(3.7)

13,820

4.5

Adani Enter

217

(3.5)

574

4.4

Reliance Comm

95

(3.3)

66

4.2

Glaxosmithkl Cons

3,668

(3.2)

Amara Raja
MRF

Losers
Price (`)

Indiabulls Real Est

Jet Air India


JSW ENERGY

www.angelbroking.com

Advances

1,134

678

Declines

1,227

701

131

91

Volumes (` cr)

Net Inflows (April 18, 2013)

Company

NSE

Unchanged

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

MFs

BSE

BSE

1,894

NSE

9,973

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio Sign Pact for International Data


Connectivity
Reliance Jio Infocomm, the broadband subsidiary of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance
Industries Ltd. (RIL), on Tuesday, signed an indefeasible right to use agreement
with Bharti Airtel to use the latters i2i submarine cable for its 4G service for an
unspecified amount. Bharti Airtels i2i connects India to Singapore and the cable
consists of eight fibre pairs using DWDM (dense wavelength division multiplexing),
capable of supporting multiple terabits of capacity per fibre pair. Its landing points
are in Chennai and Tuas in Singapore. Reliance Jio, which is gearing up to launch
4G services, will utilize a dedicated fibre pair on i2i. According to RIL, the high
speed link will enable Reliance Jio to extend its network and service reach to
customers across the Asia Pacific region. It will connect Reliance Jio directly to the
worlds major business hubs and ISPs, thereby, helping in meeting the bandwidth
demand and provide ultra-fast data experience to customers. Earlier this month,
Reliance Jio had entered into an agreement with Anil Ambani-controlled RCom to
use RComs optic fibre network for a total payment of `1,200cr. Earlier, it was
speculated that Reliance Jio would outsource much of its infrastructure requirement
from RCom. Reliance Jio, by tying up with multiple carriers and service providers,
is adopting a cost saving strategy to rapidly grow and expand its international and
domestic networks. Such deals are good from industry point of view as it results in
sharing of infrastructure which is costly to build. It is a part of industry
consolidation and could be a win-win for all including the ultimate consumer. We
maintain our Neutral view on the overall telecom sector.

Bharti Airtel buys Warid Telecom Uganda, ups Africa reach


Bharti Airtel signed an agreement to buy rival Warid Telecom Uganda for an
undisclosed sum on April 23, 2013 reinforcing its position as the second-largest
mobile phone firm in Uganda with a ~39% market share, just behind market
leader MTN, which controls ~49%. With the deal, Bharti Airtel will have 7.4mn
subscribers in Uganda, coming close to the segment leader, MTN, which had
7.7mn customers till the quarter ending December 2012. Warid, the third largest,
had 2.8mn, while Bharti Airtel had 4.6mn. However, the average revenue per user
(ARPU) is very low, at less than US$4 as of end December 2012. Bhartis ARPU in
the entire African region was US$6.2 in 3QFY2013. Though a low ARPU market,
Uganda would have 11.9% of Bhartis total customers in Africa. Bharti did not
disclose the price paid and other financial details of the deal and said it was
subject to regulatory and statutory approvals. While the move could help Bharti
increase its base in the country, the impact on revenue would not be much, given
Uganda fetches Bharti just about three per cent of its Africa revenues. Bharti Airtel
has a presence across 17 African countries with over 62mn customers at the end
of quarter ended December 31, 2012. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock.

Jet Airways announces strategic alliance with Etihad


Jet Airways has announced a strategic alliance with Etihad Airways. Jet would sell
24% stake to the Etihad for about `2,058cr, which would mark the first investment
by a foreign carrier in an Indian airline since the change in FDI policy, made last
calendar year. The deal is subject to shareholders' nod and other regulatory

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Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

approvals. In the short term, the deal brings much-needed cash and will help Jet
improve its debt-laden balance sheet and improve its financial ratios. In the long
term, too, the strategic alliance with Etihad will help Jet to improve operational
efficiency and be more competitive in the domestic market as well as on
international routes.

Result Review
HDFC Bank - (CMP: `685/ TP: - / Upside: -)
HDFC Bank delivered yet another quarter of consistent performance on the bottom
line front, with a growth of 30.1% yoy. On the operating front, while the growth in
NII came in relatively lower at 20.6% (similar to last quarter), non-interest income
grew only by moderate 10.7%, leading to growth of around 17% yoy in both
operating income and pre-provisioning profits. On the asset quality front, the bank
reported stability, as its Gross and Net NPA levels, on an absolute basis, came
down sequentially by around 4% each, which aided it to report 27% yoy lower
provisioning expenses and clock earnings growth of 30% yoy.
Balance sheet growth robust; Asset quality stable: The bank registered a robust
growth in its balance sheet, with net advances and deposits growing at 22.7% and
20.1% yoy. On the deposits front, the current and saving deposits accretion was
healthy, growing at 15.2% and 19.2% yoy, respectively. CASA ratio declined by
around 100bp on a yoy basis to 47.4%. Within loan book, the bank manage to
grow its retail loan book by 27.3% yoy and hence, share of retail advances to
overall loan book increased by around 200bp yoy and 300bp qoq to 56.9%.
NIMs for the bank came in at 4.5%, higher by 20bp qoq and 10bp yoy, primarily
on higher retail lending. Non-interest income (excluding treasury) grew at subdued
pace of 2.3% yoy, as fee income growth came in moderate at 10.8% and income
from exchange transactions declined by 38.1% yoy. The bank reported treasury
gains of `65cr for the quarter compared to a loss of `72cr in 4QFY2012. On
asset quality front, the bank reported stability, as its Gross NPA ratio improved
marginally by 5bp to 0.97%, while Net NPA ratio remained flat at 0.2%. PCR
(excluding write-offs) for the bank remained stable sequentially at 79.9%.
Outlook and valuation: HDFC Bank is currently trading at one-year forward
3.8x P/ABV (3.3x FY2015E ABV), higher than its median of 3.5x (over FY2005-13).
We believe the current valuations largely factor in the positives, leaving limited
upside in the stock. Hence we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

27,473

4.5

8,230

34.6 178.9

1.8

20.9

19.9

3.9

FY2015E

33,677

4.5

9,729

40.9 210.5

1.8

21.0

16.9

3.3

March

Axis Bank - (CMP: `1,444 / TP: `1,698 / Upside: 18%)


During 4QFY2013, Axis Bank reported a 21.8% yoy growth in its net profit, which
was in-line with our estimates. Key highlights from the result were sequential
improvement in NIMs, robust growth in fee income and stable NPA ratios.
NIMs improve sequentially; Asset quality remains stable: During 4QFY2013, the
bank reported a healthy growth in business, with advances and deposits
registering a growth of 16.0% and 14.8% yoy, respectively. Growth in the loan

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Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

book was primarily on account of strong traction witnessed in the retail loan book,
which grew by 43.6% yoy, while SME loans grew at a robust pace of 25.7% yoy.
Within retail loan book, auto loan grew by 54.7% yoy and now constitute around
4% of total loan book. Growth in the large and mid-corporate segment remained
moderate at 7.5% yoy. CASA deposits grew at a healthy pace of 22.6% yoy, aided
by a robust growth of 23.4% and 21.6% yoy in savings deposits and current
deposits, respectively. Overall, the reported NIM improved by 13bp qoq to 3.7%.
The bank registered robust growth in its non-interest income excluding treasury,
largely driven by a healthy growth in fee income from the Retail & SME segments.
On the asset quality front, slippages came in lower sequentially at `398cr,
compared to `541cr witnessed in 3QFY2013, however, slippages and fresh
restructuring, taken together amounted to ~`1,200cr during the quarter, higher
than the Managements guidance of around `1,000cr. Going forward, the
Management expects slippages and restructuring per quarter to remain at similar
levels for the next few quarters. Along with sequentially lower slippages, the bank
also reported sequentially higher recoveries and upgrades at `205cr, which
helped it to contain the sequential increase in its gross and net NPA levels, on an
absolute basis, to 5.2% and 3.7%, respectively. The gross and net NPA ratio
remained stable sequentially at 1.06% and 0.32%, respectively. The banks PCR
dipped by 200bp qoq to 79%. Of the total restructuring during the quarter
(`791cr), nearly `500cr came from Engineering and Iron & Steel. Its total
restructured book, as of 4QFY2013 stands at `4,368cr.
Outlook and valuation: Axis Bank is trading at 1.6x FY2015E ABV more than
50% discount to HDFC Bank vs an average discount of around 38% over the past
five years (which we believe over-discounts asset quality concerns). We remain
positive on the bank, owing to its attractive CASA franchise, multiple sources of
sustainable fee income and reasonable growth outlook. We maintain our Buy
recommendation, with a target price of `1,698.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

18,901

3.3

6,003

128.5 803.5

1.6

17.0

11.2

1.8

FY2015E

22,625

3.3

7,030

150.5 918.0

1.6

17.5

9.6

1.6

March

Result Preview
Hindustan Zinc (CMP: `114, TP: `140, Upside: 23%)
Hindustan Zinc is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. The companys
top-line is expected to remain flat at `3,091cr mainly on account of flat zinc prices
in this quarter. EBITDA margin is expected to expand modestly by 25bp to 56.5%
in line with flat growth in top line. Its bottom-line is however expected to increase
by 17.0% yoy to `1,663cr due to higher other income. We maintain our Buy rating
on the stock with a target price of `140.

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Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BVEV/EBITDA
(x)

(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

FY2014E 13,759

50.8

6,908

16.3

19.7

7.0

1.3

2.8

1.4

FY2015E 14,506

50.4

7,231

17.1

17.7

6.7

1.1

2.0

1.0

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Idea Cellular (CMP: `115 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Idea Cellular is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the
company to record revenue of `5,747cr, up 3.0% qoq. This is expected primarily
on the back of 0.5% qoq growth in ARPM to `0.41/min and marginal growth in
MOU to 386min. APRU is expected to increase by 1.0% qoq to `159/month.
EBITDA margin of the company is expected to decline by 36bp qoq to 26.7%. PAT
is expected at `248cr. We maintain Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

24,959

27.1

1,227

3.7

8.1

30.9

2.5

7.3

2.0

FY2015E

27,232

27.5

1,550

4.7

9.2

24.4

2.3

6.2

1.7

FAG Bearings (CMP: `1,359/ TP: `1,517/ Upside: 12%)


FAG Bearings is set to announce its 1QCY2013 results today. We expect the
company to post a revenue decline of ~9% yoy to `329cr as the performance is
expected to be impacted by a slowdown in the automotive and industrial sectors
which are the primary drivers of the companys performance. On the operating
front, we expect the company to post a ~460bp yoy contraction in margins to
12.9% due to lower utilization levels and adverse currency movement. As a result,
net profit is expected to decline by ~34% yoy to `30cr. At `1,359, the stock is
trading at 10.8x CY2014E earnings. Currently, we have an Accumulate rating on
the stock with a target price of `1,517.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

Dec.

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(` cr)

(%)

CY2013E

1,567

16.0

176 105.8

18.4

12.9

2.2

7.5

1.1

CY2014E

1,805

16.6

210 126.4

18.6

10.8

1.8

5.9

0.9

Infotech Enterprises (CMP: `166/ TP: `196 / Upside: 18%)


Infotech Enterprises is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect
the company to post revenues of US$86mn, down 1.7% qoq. In rupee terms,
revenues are expected to come in at `475cr. EBITDA margin is expected to remain
flat qoq at 18.6%. PAT is expected to come in at `46cr. We maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a target price of `196.

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Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

1,994

18.1

224

20.1

13.8

8.4

1.2

2.8

0.5

FY2015E

2,039

18.5

242

21.8

13.1

7.7

1.0

2.2

0.4

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Hindustan Zinc (25/04/2013)
Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

3,577

3,094

16

3,140

14

EBITDA

1,824

1,659

10

1,494

22

51.0

53.6

1,817

1,413

29

1,613

13

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

567

771

(26)

417

36

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

5,816

5,273

10

5,572

EBITDA

34

1,473

EBITDA margin (%)


Net profit

47.6

IDBI Bank (25/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Idea Consolidated (25/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

1,548

1,155

EBITDA margin (%)

26.6

21.9

Net profit

269

190

26.4
42

229

18

Jindal Steel & Power Consolidated (25/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

5,328

5,465

-3

4,683

14

EBITDA

2,962

1,914

55

1,790

66

EBITDA margin (%)

55.6

35.0

Net profit

975

1,171

38.2
(17)

878

11

United Phosphorous Consolidated (25/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,412

2,119

14

2,255

EBITDA

433

387

12

404

EBITDA margin (%)

17.9

18.2

Net profit

210

211

(0)

177

19

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

17.9

Hero Moto Corp (26/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

6,042

5,963

6,151

(2)

EBITDA

749

925

(19)

779

(4)

EBITDA margin (%)

12.4

15.5

Net profit

501

604

(17)

488

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,301

1,744

32

2,250

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

254

219

16

236

12.7

ICICI Bank (26/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

LIC Housing Finance (26/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

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Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Maruti Suzuki (26/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

12,747

11,525

11

10,957

16

1,154

729

58

891

29

EBITDA margin (%)

9.1

6.3

Net profit

713

640

12

501

42

2QSY13E

2QSY12

y-o-y (%)

1QSY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales
EBITDA

8.1

Siemens India (26/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

3,573

3,760

(5)

2,451

46

EBITDA

306

494

(38)

162

89

EBITDA margin (%)

8.6

13.1

Net profit

179

304

6.6
(41)

73

Economic and Political News

Lower inflation gives RBI greater space to cut rate: Rangarajan


Cancel coal blocks given since 1993: parliament panel
GDP growth in FY14 seen at 6.4%: PMEAC
Bengal raises taxes on cigarettes to fund relief for Saradha depositors

Corporate News

Marico case against Adani Wilmar's Fortune oil dismissed


Union Bank raises USD 350mn from bond sale in Hong Kong
Etihad checks into Jet with 24% stake
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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145

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013
Result Calendar
Date

Company

April 26, 2013

Hind. Zinc, Jindal Steel, Idea Cellular, IDBI Bank, United Phosphorus, Rallis, FAG Bearings, Infotech Enterprises,
Vesuvius India, Abbott India, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd
ICICI Bank, Hero Motocorp, Maruti, Siemens, LIC Housing Fin., Vijaya Bank, Goodyear

April 27, 2013

Sesa Goa, Federal Bank

April 29, 2013

Sterlite Inds, Bosch India, Exide Industries, IOB, Areva, Hexaware, Bank of Maharashtra, KPIT Cummins

April 30, 2013

Dabur India, Godrej Consumer, Petronet LNG, Marico, Aventis, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Taj GVK

May 01, 2013

May 03, 2013

IDFC, GlaxoSmith Con


Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mah. Bank, Canara Bank, Oriental Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank, Alembic Pharma,
Automotive Axle
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Titan Inds.

May 04, 2013

Grasim Inds

April 25, 2013

May 02, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

April 25, 2013

2:00PM

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

1Q A

0.20

0.40

6:00PM

US

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Apr 20

352.00

350.00

April 26, 2013

6:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

% Change

1Q A

0.40

3.00

April 29, 2013

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Value

Apr F

(22.30)

(22.30)

April 30, 2013

1:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Apr

13.00

--

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

S.A./ 1985=100

Apr

59.70

60.25

2:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Apr

48.30

--

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Apr

50.90

50.90

11:30PM

US

FOMC rate decision

1:25PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

5:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

6:00PM

US

11:00AM
11:00AM

May 1, 2013

May 2, 2013

May 1

0.25

--

Value

Apr F

47.90

--

May 2

0.75

0.50

Thousands

Apr

88.00

150.00

Unnemployment rate

Apr

7.60

7.60

India

RBI Repo rate

May 3

7.50

7.25

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

May 3

4.00

4.00

11:00AM

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

May 3

6.50

6.25

May 6, 2013

1:25PM

Germany PMI Services

Value

Apr F

49.20

--

May 8, 2013

4:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Apr

10.00

--

May 9, 2013

2:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Mar

(2.20)

--

4:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

% Ratio

May 9

0.50

0.50

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Apr

2.10

--

May 3, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends


10.0
(%)

(%)
11.2

6.0
4.0

7.5

7.6

7.5

Jan-13

Apr-12

(0.5)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI


Mfg. PMI

58.0

7.6

(1.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

(%)
7.5

(0.7)

(2.0)

(2.8)

Mar-12

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

(4.0)

(1.3)

Dec-12

(0.1)

(2.0)

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0

0.6

Nov-12

4.5

Oct-12

5.3 5.5 5.3

2.4

2.0

Sep-12

6.0

Aug-12

5.7

2.5

2.0

Jul-12

6.5

Jun-12

7.6

7.5

8.2

Feb-13

9.2

8.5

Source: CSO, Angel Research

9.0

8.4

8.0

May-12

9.0

1QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

8.0

8.1

7.3

7.2

7.3

6.6

Services PMI

56.0

6.8

6.0
54.0
52.0

3.0

2.0
1.0
0.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

(%)

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
7.50

8.00
15.0

7.00

6.50

6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

4.00

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Mar-13

4.00

3.00

May-12

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

5.00

Apr-12

(30.0)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

0.0

(15.0)

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


30.0

48.0

Feb-12

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

50.0

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

126

2,444

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

18.0

15.5

3.8

3.3

22.6

22.5

1.8

1.5

United Phosphorus

Buy

129

170

5,712

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.6

7.6

1.3

1.1

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

271

326

4,632

3,418

3,892

15.1

14.9

19.8

21.7

13.7

12.5

3.3

2.7

27.1

23.7

1.4

1.2

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

92

103

4,647

14,401

15,841

11.4

11.5

13.6

15.9

6.8

5.8

1.2

1.0

18.4

18.2

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

23

27

6,053

13,833

16,192

9.6

9.7

2.0

2.7

11.6

8.6

1.9

1.7

12.1

15.2

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Accumulate

293

309

443

934

1,103

10.2

10.7

24.5

34.3

11.9

8.5

1.5

1.4

13.2

16.9

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,804

2,014

52,206

22,552

25,498

18.6

18.6

117.9

134.3

15.3

13.4

5.5

4.4

40.2

36.6

1.9

1.6

Bharat Forge

Reduce

237

225

5,523

6,198

6,793

14.6

14.9

14.5

17.3

16.3

13.7

2.1

1.9

13.6

14.7

1.0

0.9

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,947

28,092

9,717

11,092

16.2

17.0

354.7

423.3

25.2

21.1

4.3

3.7

17.2

17.5

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

103

155

353

5,403

6,057

8.3

8.3

36.4

41.3

2.8

2.5

0.4

0.4

15.3

16.6

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

133

146

11,263

7,026

8,027

14.2

14.2

7.7

8.9

17.2

15.0

2.9

2.5

18.0

17.9

1.3

1.1

FAG Bearings*

Buy

1,359

1,569

2,258

1,619

1,879

16.0

16.6

108.6

130.7

12.5

10.4

2.2

1.8

18.8

19.1

1.2

1.0

Hero Motocorp

Buy

1,572

1,824

31,392

25,351

28,047

13.9

13.8

104.1

140.3

15.1

11.2

5.1

4.0

36.7

40.4

1.0

0.9

JK Tyre

Buy

115

154

472

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

3.1

2.6

0.5

0.4

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate


Maruti

Neutral

Motherson Sumi

Buy

Subros

Accumulate

Tata Motors

Buy

TVS Motor

Accumulate

885

1,006

54,331

44,550

50,260

11.4

11.7

59.6

68.3

14.9

13.0

3.1

2.6

22.3

21.6

1.0

0.8

1,536

44,377

48,078

55,133

9.1

9.3

87.4

102.9

17.6

14.9

2.3

2.0

14.1

14.6

0.8

0.6

184

222

10,796

28,442

31,493

7.5

7.8

12.5

14.8

14.7

12.4

3.6

2.9

27.5

25.8

0.5

0.5

27

30

161

1,479

1,685

10.0

9.9

5.5

7.5

4.9

3.6

0.5

0.5

11.1

13.7

0.4

0.3

281

324

75,008 206,341 227,695

12.8

13.5

32.3

39.0

8.7

7.2

1.8

1.5

23.1

23.2

0.4

0.4

36

40

1,715

7,714

8,532

6.1

6.3

4.8

5.8

7.5

6.3

1.2

1.0

16.5

17.5

0.2

0.1

Capital Goods
ABB*

Reduce

509

452

10,777

8,073

9,052

5.5

7.2

11.3

17.4

45.1

29.3

3.9

3.6

8.9

12.8

1.3

1.2

BGR Energy

Neutral

191

1,378

4,114

4,886

11.4

10.7

24.9

28.0

7.7

6.8

1.0

0.9

25.2

22.6

0.6

0.6

BHEL

Neutral

189

46,260

43,757

40,934

17.3

16.9

20.9

19.0

9.1

10.0

2.0

1.8

23.7

18.8

0.9

0.9

Blue Star

Buy

163

230

1,468

2,896

3,087

5.6

6.2

9.3

11.7

17.5

13.9

2.9

2.5

17.6

19.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

94

117

6,043

13,790

15,095

6.4

7.4

6.9

9.4

13.7

10.1

1.5

1.4

11.7

14.5

0.5

0.4

Jyoti Structures

Accumulate

30

34

244

3,074

3,355

9.0

8.8

8.7

10.2

3.4

2.9

0.3

0.3

10.4

11.1

0.3

0.2

KEC International

Buy

54

67

1,399

7,750

8,631

6.8

7.0

7.7

9.2

7.1

5.9

1.0

0.9

20.8

20.8

0.3

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

577

6,870

5,931

6,592

9.6

9.7

31.0

34.3

18.6

16.8

3.2

2.8

18.6

17.9

1.0

0.9

1,215

1,361

22,809

12,182

13,435

21.0

22.4

78.7

98.8

15.5

12.3

2.8

2.5

19.0

21.4

1.6

1.4

Cement
ACC

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

186

28,695

10,681

11,991

25.0

25.5

10.8

12.8

17.2

14.6

3.0

2.7

18.1

19.4

2.2

1.8

India Cements

Neutral

82

2,508

4,777

5,276

17.3

17.1

8.8

10.9

9.3

7.5

0.7

0.7

7.5

8.8

0.9

0.8

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

90

143

1,062

2,313

2,728

19.8

20.7

16.6

23.1

5.5

3.9

0.7

0.6

13.6

16.5

1.0

0.8

Madras Cements

Neutral

233

5,533

4,293

4,855

27.4

28.6

21.8

28.2

10.7

8.2

1.9

1.6

19.6

21.3

1.8

1.4

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,360

15,189

6,706

7,751

28.7

27.7

338.2

375.5

12.9

11.6

3.3

2.6

28.5

25.2

1.6

1.2

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,864

51,117

22,456

25,445

23.2

23.5

103.5

122.8

18.0

15.2

2.9

2.5

17.5

17.9

2.3

2.0

187

272

985

2,013

2,293

22.5

22.5

26.0

24.4

7.2

7.7

0.8

0.7

11.7

9.9

2.1

1.9

12

215

2,281

2,492

5.9

6.9

0.7

2.0

17.0

5.8

0.4

0.4

2.3

6.5

0.4

0.3

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

118

167

3,917

4,152

4,624

44.4

45.0

17.0

17.2

7.0

6.8

1.1

0.9

16.2

14.6

3.3

3.4

ITNL

Buy

182

230

3,535

7,177

7,772

27.4

28.9

29.4

32.4

6.2

5.6

1.0

0.8

16.5

15.9

2.7

2.7

IVRCL Infra

Buy

21

35

632

6,287

6,836

8.5

8.5

2.3

3.0

8.8

6.8

0.3

0.3

3.4

4.2

0.5

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

78

95

17,364

14,914

15,699

26.2

26.4

4.2

4.4

18.7

18.0

1.2

1.2

6.8

6.6

2.5

2.4

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,504

1,795

92,589

69,586

79,247

11.2

11.1

75.1

84.9

20.0

17.7

2.9

2.5

15.2

15.0

1.5

1.4

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

34

45

860

6,576

7,264

8.2

8.3

4.1

4.8

8.2

7.0

0.3

0.3

4.2

4.7

0.5

0.5

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

53

1,757

1,338

1,542

10.2

10.2

3.0

4.8

17.9

11.2

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.2

5.5

5.3

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

114

153

1,722

2,511

2,736

10.6

10.6

7.3

7.8

15.7

14.6

2.0

1.8

13.3

12.7

0.9

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

118

164

582

6,824

7,563

9.2

9.4

18.0

23.4

6.5

5.0

0.4

0.4

6.9

8.3

0.5

0.4

Unity Infra

Buy

32

45

237

2,455

2,734

13.4

13.0

14.6

14.9

2.2

2.2

0.3

0.2

12.3

11.3

0.5

0.5

137

155

6,868

7,137

7,907

2.9

2.8

32.3

36.0

4.3

3.8

0.6

0.5

14.2

14.2

93

5,224

5,285

5,937

3.0

2.9

21.2

23.4

4.4

4.0

0.6

0.6

13.4

13.4

Financials
Allahabad Bank

Accumulate

Andhra Bank

Neutral

Axis Bank

Buy

1,444

1,698

67,563

18,901

22,625

3.3

3.3

128.5

150.5

11.2

9.6

1.8

1.6

17.0

17.5

Bank of Baroda

Buy

692

815

29,164

16,318

18,682

2.4

2.4

121.4

144.6

5.7

4.8

0.8

0.7

15.2

16.0

Bank of India

Accumulate

335

360

19,972

14,284

16,295

2.3

2.3

55.9

68.4

6.0

4.9

0.9

0.7

13.9

15.2

Bank of Maharashtra

Accumulate

50

56

3,317

4,289

4,670

2.9

2.8

11.6

13.1

4.3

3.8

0.6

0.6

15.7

15.6

Canara Bank

Accumulate

437

461

19,350

11,673

13,208

2.3

2.3

74.8

85.8

5.8

5.1

0.8

0.7

13.7

14.1

Central Bank

Neutral

70

7,281

8,079

9,086

2.6

2.6

14.9

18.0

4.7

3.9

0.7

0.6

12.2

13.3

Corporation Bank

Buy

378

453

5,784

5,397

5,973

2.2

2.2

96.3

105.9

3.9

3.6

0.6

0.5

14.6

14.4

Dena Bank

Accumulate

95

101

3,327

3,334

3,700

2.7

2.7

23.6

26.5

4.0

3.6

0.6

0.5

15.5

15.3

Federal Bank

Neutral

451

7,708

2,916

3,389

3.3

3.3

50.1

59.4

9.0

7.6

1.1

1.0

12.8

13.7

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Neutral

839

129,660

8,928

10,684

3.7

3.7

38.4

45.3

21.9

18.5

4.7

4.2

32.5

32.4

HDFC Bank

Neutral

689

164,087

26,559

32,720

4.4

4.4

35.5

42.5

19.4

16.2

3.9

3.3

21.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Accumulate

1,162

1,306

134,014

26,371

31,618

3.0

3.0

84.1

96.7

13.8

12.0

1.9

1.7

15.8

16.5

IDBI Bank

Accumulate

87

96

11,602

9,309

10,541

2.1

2.2

20.1

23.4

4.3

3.7

0.5

0.5

12.8

13.5

Indian Bank

Buy

166

200

7,117

6,276

6,968

3.1

3.1

38.3

42.3

4.3

3.9

0.6

0.6

15.2

14.9

IOB

Buy

67

78

6,219

8,205

9,048

2.6

2.5

16.4

20.3

4.1

3.3

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.1

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,279

6,199

3,032

3,118

3.8

3.5

218.1

200.9

5.9

6.4

1.1

1.0

19.9

16.0

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

233

253

11,736

2,127

2,498

2.2

2.2

25.1

28.2

9.3

8.2

1.6

1.4

18.3

17.9

Oriental Bank

Neutral

280

8,166

6,791

7,478

2.7

2.7

56.7

63.4

4.9

4.4

0.6

0.6

12.9

13.1

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

778

889

27,516

21,161

24,166

3.3

3.3

153.4

176.4

5.1

4.4

0.8

0.7

16.1

16.3

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

24

3,172

1,826

2,081

3.0

2.9

4.0

4.5

5.9

5.3

1.0

0.9

17.6

17.1

St Bk of India

Accumulate

2,287

2,567

156,415

67,091

76,746

3.2

3.1

241.2

280.4

9.5

8.2

1.5

1.3

16.5

17.0

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

119

130

7,163

7,340

8,212

2.9

2.8

26.4

28.7

4.5

4.2

0.7

0.6

15.8

15.2

UCO Bank

Neutral

66

4,960

6,126

6,665

2.6

2.5

12.2

14.4

5.4

4.6

0.8

0.7

11.8

12.6

Union Bank

Accumulate

237

264

14,171

11,226

12,769

2.7

2.7

41.0

47.8

5.8

5.0

0.8

0.7

14.8

15.4

United Bank

Accumulate

60

68

2,256

3,597

4,008

2.6

2.7

16.0

20.8

3.8

2.9

0.5

0.4

12.5

14.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

52

2,599

2,600

2,946

2.0

2.1

9.7

11.0

5.4

4.8

0.6

0.6

11.4

11.7

Yes Bank

Neutral

495

17,743

4,260

5,344

3.0

3.0

42.1

50.2

11.8

9.9

2.5

2.1

23.3

22.9

Asian Paints

Neutral

4,649

44,591

13,319

15,805

15.7

15.7

143.8

170.2

32.3

27.3

10.1

8.0

35.1

32.7

3.3

2.7

Britannia

Neutral

556

6,647

6,417

7,446

5.1

5.5

20.3

25.2

27.5

22.1

9.3

7.4

37.4

37.3

0.9

0.8

Colgate

Neutral

1,383

18,806

3,588

4,130

21.1

21.6

44.7

51.9

30.9

26.7

27.8

20.7

100.0

89.1

5.0

4.3

Dabur India

Neutral

142

24,802

7,183

8,340

16.8

16.8

5.4

6.3

26.3

22.5

10.3

8.0

43.9

39.9

3.4

2.9

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,668

15,428

3,617

4,260

16.1

16.4

120.6

146.4

30.4

25.1

9.4

7.6

33.8

33.4

3.9

3.3

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

844

28,724

7,801

9,017

17.0

17.0

26.5

31.9

31.8

26.5

7.2

5.9

26.5

25.9

3.8

3.2

HUL

Neutral

480

103,734

28,974

32,970

13.5

13.5

17.0

18.1

28.3

26.5

18.0

13.5

74.3

58.3

3.4

2.9

ITC

Neutral

317

250,804

33,506

39,067

36.8

37.0

11.1

13.0

28.6

24.5

9.3

7.6

35.5

34.1

7.1

6.1

Marico

Neutral

216

13,924

5,352

6,204

14.0

14.0

7.9

9.8

27.3

22.1

5.6

4.6

22.8

22.9

2.6

2.2

Nestle*

Neutral

4,664

44,963

9,739

11,307

21.5

22.2

131.6

159.9

35.4

29.2

17.9

12.8

58.8

69.5

4.5

3.9

Tata Global

Neutral

138

8,556

7,998

8,798

9.7

9.8

7.9

8.7

17.5

15.9

2.1

2.0

9.6

9.8

1.0

0.9

FMCG

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

IT
HCL Tech^

Buy

733

863

50,991

28,633

32,216

21.5

20.7

57.3

61.7

12.8

11.9

3.0

2.5

24.0

21.5

1.6

1.4

Hexaware*

Buy

86

105

2,567

2,137

2,350

18.8

19.2

10.4

11.7

8.3

7.4

1.8

1.6

22.6

22.1

1.0

0.9

Infosys

Accumulate

2,262

2,465

129,898

43,338

47,244

27.5

27.7

169.4

182.6

13.4

12.4

2.8

2.4

20.8

19.3

2.3

2.0

Infotech Enterprises

Buy

169

196

1,882

1,994

2,039

18.1

18.5

20.2

21.8

8.4

7.7

1.2

1.0

13.8

13.1

0.5

0.4

KPIT Cummins

Buy

95

130

1,828

2,458

2,729

15.5

15.2

13.1

14.5

7.3

6.5

1.5

1.2

20.9

18.8

0.6

0.5

Mahindra Satyam

Buy

107

143

12,544

8,456

9,385

19.3

19.1

10.6

11.9

10.1

9.0

2.3

1.8

22.4

20.1

1.0

0.8

Mindtree

Accumulate

828

926

3,439

2,587

2,823

19.4

19.4

87.2

92.6

9.5

8.9

2.0

1.7

21.8

18.8

1.0

0.8

Mphasis&

Accumulate

373

395

7,833

6,096

6,646

17.6

17.4

38.1

41.6

9.8

9.0

1.4

1.2

14.2

13.7

0.8

0.6

NIIT

Buy

23

30

383

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

5.4

4.3

0.6

0.5

10.3

12.0

0.1

0.1

Persistent

Accumulate

552

602

2,210

1,433

1,591

24.7

24.6

55.5

60.2

10.0

9.2

1.8

1.5

18.4

16.8

1.2

0.9

TCS

Accumulate

1,430

1,585

279,804

71,833

81,893

28.4

28.0

78.5

88.0

18.2

16.2

5.5

4.5

30.2

27.9

3.7

3.2

Tech Mahindra

Buy

925

1,230

11,847

7,699

8,315

19.3

18.1

107.0

115.0

8.6

8.0

1.9

1.5

21.7

19.1

1.5

1.3

Wipro

Accumulate

343

385

84,417

40,173

43,697

20.4

20.6

26.2

28.5

13.1

12.0

2.6

2.2

19.7

18.4

1.6

1.3

D B Corp

Buy

227

272

4,170

1,787

1,974

25.4

26.4

14.5

16.9

15.6

13.5

3.3

2.8

22.4

22.2

2.2

1.9

HT Media

Accumulate

103

117

2,416

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.0

9.1

12.9

11.4

1.4

1.2

11.2

11.4

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

89

121

2,944

1,698

1,908

23.9

24.5

7.4

8.4

12.0

10.6

3.0

2.7

26.7

26.8

1.8

1.6

PVR

Neutral

325

1,286

1,343

1,521

18.8

18.9

18.3

22.9

17.7

14.2

1.7

1.8

10.6

12.3

1.0

0.8

Sun TV Network

Neutral

402

15,858

2,293

2,571

68.7

68.7

19.3

22.7

20.8

17.7

5.1

4.5

26.1

27.3

6.4

5.5

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

456

10,325

13,794

17,335

30.7

34.8

48.9

83.6

9.3

5.5

1.0

0.8

11.2

16.7

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Accumulate

312

345

196,786

72,174

76,311

33.3

28.4

28.4

30.9

11.0

10.1

3.0

2.6

37.6

36.2

1.9

1.7

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

17

26

578

2,074

2,176

10.4

11.3

1.9

2.3

8.8

7.3

0.1

0.1

3.7

4.3

0.5

0.2

GMDC

Buy

149

213

4,735

1,944

2,317

49.9

51.7

20.8

25.6

7.2

5.8

1.6

1.3

24.3

24.6

2.0

1.5

Hind. Zinc

Buy

114

140

48,148

13,759

14,506

50.8

50.4

16.4

17.1

7.0

6.7

1.3

1.1

19.7

17.7

1.4

1.0

Hindalco

Neutral

96

18,447

88,987

94,163

9.2

9.7

13.8

15.9

7.0

6.1

0.5

0.5

7.6

8.1

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

725

16,177

39,524

42,064

17.1

16.9

71.8

86.3

10.1

8.4

0.8

0.8

8.6

9.6

0.7

0.6

MOIL

Neutral

232

3,894

954

1,062

45.5

47.4

26.1

29.1

8.9

8.0

1.3

1.2

15.1

15.2

1.6

1.3

Monnet Ispat

Buy

199

291

1,269

2,883

3,181

21.7

23.6

40.3

57.7

4.9

3.5

0.5

0.4

10.1

13.0

1.3

1.1

Nalco

Neutral

35

8,982

8,187

8,416

14.5

14.7

3.2

3.3

10.9

10.7

0.7

0.7

6.8

6.7

0.6

0.6

NMDC

Buy

129

179

51,244

10,329

12,540

73.8

75.0

16.6

19.0

7.8

6.8

1.5

1.3

20.6

20.2

2.8

2.2

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

63

25,834

53,685

151

163

13,145

3,742

29,591

45,864

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY15E

64,183

9.3

12.2

4,426

32.9

32.8

46,970

23.8

25.3

29,967 141,775 151,672

10.5

11.4

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

5.5

8.3

11.4

7.6

0.6

0.6

31.3

31.2

4.8

4.9

0.7

0.6

18.8

20.9

4.7

4.2

0.5

0.5

35.3

51.7

8.8

6.0

0.6

0.6

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

5.4

7.7

0.8

0.8

14.8

12.9

4.3

3.5

11.7

11.8

0.6

0.5

7.6

10.3

0.5

0.5

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Neutral

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

Sterlite Inds

Accumulate

88

98

Tata Steel

Buy

309

430

Sarda

Buy

106

153

379

1,494

1,568

19.1

20.3

31.3

36.5

3.4

2.9

0.4

0.3

11.8

12.4

0.6

0.5

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

37

48

501

2,668

2,834

10.0

10.1

4.6

5.2

8.0

7.2

0.2

0.2

3.2

3.4

0.5

0.5

Buy

85

118

277

2,425

2,552

13.7

14.8

33.5

45.3

2.5

1.9

0.3

0.2

11.2

13.1

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Buy

289

345

55,178

16,482

16,228

69.4

53.3

53.3

49.6

5.4

5.8

0.8

0.8

16.5

13.6

2.0

1.7

GAIL

Neutral

331

41,936

55,815

63,013

15.3

15.2

35.9

41.5

9.2

8.0

1.5

1.3

17.0

17.1

0.6

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

327

354

279,465 157,962 175,367

35.1

36.2

34.3

39.3

9.5

8.3

1.6

1.5

18.2

18.6

1.5

1.4

Reliance Industries

Neutral

804

259,455 380,031 407,721

9.9

69.3

69.3

78.0

11.6

10.3

1.2

1.0

11.5

11.7

0.6

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

249

3,192

3,707

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

10.5

9.7

2.9

2.6

29.6

28.2

0.7

0.7

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

296

4,149

3,700

4,218

23.4

22.8

26.6

30.4

11.1

9.7

2.3

1.9

22.6

21.7

1.2

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

135

174

10,121

41,362

40,852

5.8

6.5

15.6

17.4

8.7

7.8

1.9

1.6

24.1

22.5

0.3

0.3

69

3,863

1,079

983

91.8

91.9

8.8

7.8

7.9

8.8

1.3

1.2

17.8

14.1

3.3

3.6

Alembic Pharma

Accumulate

111

122

2,093

1,714

1,976

17.1

19.0

9.5

12.2

11.7

9.1

3.1

2.4

30.2

29.8

1.3

1.1

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

188

264

5,485

6,279

7,033

16.0

16.0

15.2

19.2

12.4

9.8

1.6

1.4

19.2

18.0

1.4

1.2

Aventis*

Neutral

2,586

5,955

1,682

1,917

16.6

16.6

92.4

99.1

28.0

26.1

3.9

3.9

15.7

14.8

3.2

2.6

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

771

962

15,793

7,386

8,863

18.0

18.0

39.5

48.1

19.5

16.0

4.4

3.6

24.8

24.7

2.4

2.0

Cipla

Buy

397

463

31,844

9,130

10,543

24.8

23.0

21.6

23.2

18.4

17.1

3.0

2.6

17.6

16.2

3.2

2.7

Dr Reddy's

Accumulate

1,903

2,078

32,304

11,662

13,101

21.0

20.8

92.9

103.9

20.5

18.3

3.9

3.3

20.8

19.6

2.9

2.6

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Neutral

69

206

560

1,536

1,739

20.2

20.9

15.4

20.6

4.5

3.4

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.7

1.0

0.8

2,198

18,615

2,993

3,319

30.4

30.2

78.1

86.7

28.1

25.4

8.5

7.7

31.6

31.9

5.4

4.8

Buy

63

90

576

784

902

15.2

15.2

7.8

9.0

8.0

7.0

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.8

0.9

0.8

Ipca labs

Buy

512

676

6,459

3,474

4,168

21.0

21.0

37.3

45.1

13.7

11.4

3.2

2.6

26.4

25.3

2.0

1.7

Lupin

Buy

681

792

30,457

11,564

13,847

21.1

21.1

32.8

39.6

20.8

17.2

4.8

3.8

25.7

24.7

2.7

2.2

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

459

19,412

11,400

12,060

12.5

12.5

21.6

22.5

21.2

20.4

4.1

3.5

20.6

18.5

1.6

1.5

Sun Pharma

Reduce

950

888

98,270

12,563

14,698

42.6

42.6

29.8

35.5

31.9

26.8

5.7

4.8

19.2

19.3

7.2

6.0

72

78

1,092

1,535

1,570

31.9

31.6

13.1

14.1

5.5

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

12.2

1.0

0.8

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Accumulate

149

163

122,940

81,951

92,264

24.1

24.3

13.6

14.9

11.0

10.0

1.4

1.3

13.0

13.1

2.2

2.1

DLF

Buy

247

288

41,933

9,699

12,010

37.0

36.9

6.0

8.4

41.4

29.4

1.5

1.5

3.8

5.1

5.7

4.7

MLIFE

Accumulate

390

446

1,594

888

1,002

26.7

25.9

36.3

40.6

10.8

9.6

1.2

1.1

10.8

11.0

2.0

1.8

Bharti Airtel

Accumulate

299

325

113,717

86,933

96,121

30.2

31.2

10.3

15.7

29.1

19.1

2.0

1.9

7.0

9.7

2.0

1.7

Idea Cellular

Neutral

115

38,065

24,959

27,232

27.1

27.5

3.7

4.7

30.9

24.4

2.5

2.3

8.1

9.2

1.9

1.7

Rcom

Neutral

95

19,505

22,221

24,253

32.0

32.2

4.3

6.4

21.8

14.7

0.5

0.5

2.4

3.4

2.4

2.1

13.1

13.5

79.0

90.8

17.4

15.2

3.8

3.2

23.7

22.8

1.3

1.1

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Buy

1,375

1,634

2,922

1,926

2,152

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

174

237

1,733

3,929

4,480

7.4

7.7

15.5

19.7

11.2

8.8

2.0

1.6

17.4

18.7

0.5

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

445

620

563

596

743

16.2

16.1

45.0

56.3

9.9

7.9

2.4

1.9

27.8

26.9

1.0

0.8

Cravatex

Buy

325

566

84

308

351

7.0

7.0

39.6

47.2

8.2

6.9

1.8

1.4

21.8

21.0

0.3

0.3

Finolex Cables

Buy

50

68

763

2,559

2,893

9.8

9.8

9.8

11.3

5.1

4.4

0.7

0.6

14.1

14.1

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

369

570

481

2,299

2,621

4.7

4.9

46.3

57.0

8.0

6.5

0.4

0.4

5.0

5.8

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Buy

249

304

575

1,559

1,676

7.1

7.4

27.5

30.5

9.1

8.2

1.5

1.3

16.9

16.7

0.2

0.1

Hitachi

Buy

127

177

346

1,053

1,169

6.3

7.1

13.8

17.7

9.2

7.2

1.3

1.1

15.0

16.7

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation* Buy

2,443

2,842

2,160

2,117

2,491

8.1

7.8

137.9

157.9

17.7

15.5

2.6

2.3

16.0

15.8

0.9

0.8

IFB Agro

Buy

167

198

150

495

651

12.7

12.9

29.3

39.5

5.7

4.2

0.8

0.7

15.4

17.6

0.4

0.3

ITD Cementation

Buy

182

238

210

1,430

1,573

12.1

12.2

21.8

30.6

8.4

6.0

0.5

0.5

6.1

8.0

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

174

2,803

979

1,164

14.9

15.1

6.0

7.7

28.9

22.6

3.6

3.3

12.9

15.1

3.0

2.5

MRF

Neutral

13,820

5,861

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0

7.7

7.7

1.6

1.4

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.5

Page Industries

Neutral

3,539

3,948

1,047

1,281

19.6

19.8

127.3

158.1

27.8

22.4

13.3

9.7

54.9

50.0

3.9

3.2

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

565

786

678

1,148

1,360

11.7

11.9

55.5

71.4

10.2

7.9

2.4

1.8

26.3

26.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

240

312

225

1,157

1,320

11.9

12.0

66.6

77.9

3.6

3.1

0.6

0.5

18.3

18.2

0.4

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

257

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.3

1.2

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

501

744

881

1,069

1,223

9.7

9.7

40.0

46.5

12.5

10.8

1.8

1.5

15.1

15.3

0.8

0.7

TAJ GVK

Buy

64

108

400

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.1

7.0

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.6

1.4

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

298

371

459

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

4.6

4.3

0.6

0.6

14.5

13.8

0.2

TTK Healthcare

Buy

453

553

352

435

516

6.2

7.1

24.3

33.3

18.6

13.6

3.1

2.6

17.6

20.8

0.6

0.5

Tree House

Accumulate

260

275

936

150

192

52.7

52.5

12.8

16.2

20.3

16.1

2.0

1.8

10.0

11.1

5.8

4.4

TVS Srichakra

Buy

182

226

139

1,591

1,739

7.1

7.4

39.4

56.5

4.6

3.2

0.9

0.7

20.6

25.0

0.3

0.3

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Others
United Spirits

Neutral

2,099

27,450

11,886

13,491

14.4

14.0

50.9

74.5

41.2

28.2

3.4

3.0

10.6

11.4

2.6

2.3

Vesuvius India*

Neutral

351

712

591

623

17.5

17.2

29.0

29.6

12.1

11.9

1.8

1.6

16.0

14.5

1.0

0.9

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on April 23, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 25, 2013

www.angelbroking.com