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Lesson Planning Sheet Title: Probability Trees Learning Objectives: By the end of the lesson: All students should be able to draw a Probability Tree for two independent events. Most students should be able to draw and use a probability tree to calculate the probability of independent events. Some students should be able to draw use a probability tree with three or more branches to calculate the probability of independent events. Keywords: Probability Tree, Independent Events, And, Or Learning Activities Starter/Introduction The students recap listing all the permutations for a series of events from which to calculate a probability. It is important for the class to use a clear, logical and systematic method to ensure an exhaustive list. From this list the probability can be determined. Development The development phase builds on the starter by considering a different method to organising events so that more complex combinations and probabilities can be calculated. Introduce the idea of a tree diagram as a way of breaking down the events into the order in which they occur. Emphasise that the events along the branches are mutually exclusive therefore the sum must be one. Discuss the terminology for and / or as a means to determine the path that is travelled along the tree diagram. and represented a multiplicative relationship between the events with or representing a cumulative one. Before proceeding on to the third slide students could attempt to construct a similar tree diagram for the likelihood of having a boy or girl, or both when expecting twins. This could be attempted on mini-whiteboards for assessment and feedback. At this points students could work through the problem on the third slide independently. Feedback the solution in stages, i.e., the tree diagram construction and labelling, then calculating the probabilities from it. Plenary The plenary is intended to assess each of the three learning objectives. All students should be able to create and correctly label the probability tree, most should be able to use that to calculate the probability of at least one event and the best should calculate the probability of both events. Have the solution presented on mini-whiteboards for assessment and feedback. Differentiation More able: Students could consider three or more events. Probabilities could be given as an algebraic expression to link with other topics within mathematics. Less Able Students may need to spend one lesson creating and correctly labelling the probability tree and move on to using that to calculate probabilities in the next. Resources: Mini-whiteboards