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Melissa Kimble ANTH410 Fantasy Proposal Scope and Significance: I propose to develop a network analysis that incorporates network links that calculate for daily weather averages pertaining to the Trinity River for the last ten years, a framework of known recovery coordinates as documented by the Coroners Office, and a dataset on how decomposition in aquatic settings and drowning affect distance traveled along a flowing river. Upon completion, I will be able to determine the maximum comprehensive course a body can travel along the Trinity River for a given duration of time. Recovering remains is never guaranteed, and because of the necessity of remains for such things as closure for the family, forensic analysis, or even for insurance companies, a system that can estimate where and when to look for remains will only benefit those involved. Providing a program that can generate the maximum comprehensive range a body can travel along a river will give search and recovery a determined area to search before broadening their scope. This would reduce the amount of cost involved in recovery, and should increase the rate of recovery by providing a smaller area to search. Background and Methods: In natural water settings, drowning-related mortalities account for at least ten deaths per day in the United States. From 2005-2009, there was a yearly average of 3,533 fatal unintentional drownings (non-boating related). Humboldt County accounts for seventeen victims between the years of 2004 June 2011, which is a figure that does not include the high volume of victims last year [2012]. The type of analysis proposed here will not increase the

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possibility of survival for an individual who has fallen into the water, but will assist in increasing the probability of recovering their remains. The Trinity River is the largest tributary to the Klamath River and has the largest occurrence of drownings in Humboldt County. Data on decomposition in aquatic settings and drowning is limited because there is a lack of information immediately available. My primary focus is on the phases of drowning and the average time elapsed to reach the Bloat stage for optimal discovery based on river conditions and the typical rate of relaxation of the epiglottis in the event of drowning. There are only a select few studies that involve accumulated degree days and post-mortem submersion interval, but they generally found that decomposition was relatable to water temperature even while submerged (so long as adipocere is not present). In order for me to accurately relate the bloat stage of decomposition to this study, I would need a more in-depth study on why adipocere forms, and at what ADD the body reaches the bloat stage; both with the occurrence of adipocere and without it. Some preliminary work was conducted by Marcella Widya and associates in determining adipocere formation (and concluded that it was a field that needed more research), and by John OBrien, who concluded that adipocere is not a guaranteed step in decomposition. In addition to these studies, there is a wide assortment of contemporary work being conducted on adipocere and its implications on decomposition. Network analyses on rivers are not commonly done due to the complexity of a river and the issues with predicting river velocity on a given day or hour, but a network analysis of a river has been created for the Huaihe River Basin of China in 2011 by Jiang, which provides information on the particular methodology they used to produce an effective model. With the growing availability of LiDAR information, the full scope of the riverbed can be mapped. This enables GIS technicians to calculate the capacity of a river at any given region and calculate for

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the water velocity based on precipitation with this data. The ability to accurately predict water velocity based on precipitation is another key component to this study. The NOAA Coastal Services Center [and partners] are currently conducting a LiDAR analysis of coastal states and standardizing the information for public distribution. Additional information, such as from the National Hydrography Dataset (which provides watershed information on any water system in the United States) and the NLCD (National Land Cover Database), are also immediately available and ready for distribution. Using the Network Analysis function of ArcGIS, I will create a multimodal model that incorporates speed increases/decreases along the Trinity River as they pertain to both decomposition and weather data described above. The first step for this analysis is producing a basic network analysis of the Trinity River that identifies all centers, nodes and links, and assigning flow direction to each. Fortunately, the only information necessary to complete this process is what can be obtained through the NHD and NLCD. From what I have found, the NOAA has only gone so far as compiling LiDAR information from a segment of the Klamath River that feeds into the Trinity, but not the Trinity itself. Once LiDAR information is obtainable for the Trinity River, a comprehensive network analysis can be conducted. Until that time, methodology can be created using the Klamath River LiDAR data, and later incorporating it into the Trinity River once that is made available. Based on the conclusions made in Predicting the postmortem submersion interval for human remains recovery recovered from U.K. waterways, a preliminary model can be created by associating ADD with bloat times as they pertain to water temperature (and the inclusion of studies on drowning when alcohol is present in the victims system) and then compared to previously recovered remains to ascertain the accuracy of said prediction. If the results are found

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to be reasonably accurate, then the only data necessary for this analysis is what can be obtained from the National Weather Service and whether or not alcohol had been consumed by the individual in question. If the results are not found to be reasonably accurate, then further study needs to be conducted on decomposition in aquatic settings before bloat times can be predicted. One issue I can foresee in predicting bloat times is with whether or not the individual has consumed anything that has been fermented. Fermented foods or beverages will decrease the time elapsed to reach the bloat stage. How this affects our window of opportunity is yet to be determined, and something I would like to put further research into. In terms of possible harm that could result from my project, I suppose that if I do not produce a model that is reasonably accurate, I could provide a sense of false hope for the victims family or friends. However, with the reasoning that this model will allow for a higher probability of recovery, this false hope can be mitigated by making sure that family and friends are aware this methodology will not guarantee recovery, but only increase the rate of recovery.