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Market Outlook

April 29, 2013

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive mirroring flat opening
trades in the SGX Nifty and most other Asian markets.

BSE Sensex

(0.6)

Nifty

(0.8)

(45)

5,871

The US markets showed a mixed performance on Friday on the back of


disappointing data on 1QCY2013 economic growth and a mixed response to the
latest batch of earnings. According to new government statistics, GDP expanded at
a 2.5% (as against an expectation of 3.1%) annual rate in 1QCY2013, up 0.4%
from 4QCY2012. Meanwhile, the European markets ended Friday's session in
negative territory, snapping its recent upward trend. The pull back was largely
attributed to profit taking following this week's strong run. The gains accumulated
this week were largely due to speculation that the ECB will cut rates at its upcoming
meeting next week.

MID CAP

(0.6)

(40)

6,275

SMALL CAP

(0.5)

(33)

6,024

BSE HC

(0.8)

(69)

8,625

BSE PSU

(0.8)

(55)

6,838

BANKEX

(1.4)

(202) 14,343

AUTO

0.8

90 10,848

METAL

(1.4)

(121)

8,637

OIL & GAS

(1.6)

(142)

8,692

(1.5)

(86)

5,615

Meanwhile, Indian markets ended weak on Friday, as investors awaited cues from
the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting due this week. A broader
rebound in commodities, the rupee's weakness on the back of month-end importer
demand for dollars and weak European stocks following five straight sessions of
gains also kept investors at bay.

Global Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,307 / 5,880 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,365 19,442 / 5,899 5,926 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,307 / 5,880 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,229 19,172 / 5,852 5,833 levels.
Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

SENSEX

19,172

19,229

19,307

19,365

19,442

NIFTY

5,833

5,852

5,880

5,899

5,926

News Analysis

Result Review: ICICI Bank, Maruti, Hero MotoCorp, LIC Housing, Sesa Goa,
Styrolution, Goodyear India
Result Preview: Hindustan Unilever, Sterlite, Bosch, Shree Cements, Exide
Industries, Bank of Maharashtra, Hexaware, KPIT

BSE IT

Dow Jones

(120) 19,287

0.1

12 14,713

NASDAQ

(0.3)

(11)

3,279

FTSE

(0.3)

(16)

6,426

Nikkei

(0.3)

(42) 13,884

Hang Seng

0.7

146 22,548

Straits Times

0.3

11

3,349

(1.0)

(21)

2,178

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

(1.9)

(0.8)

$40.1

WIT

(0.9)

(0.1)

$7.7

IBN

(1.4)

(0.6)

$45.4

HDB

(0.5)

(0.2)

$42.1

Shanghai Com

Indian ADR

Advances / Declines

Advances
Declines
Unchanged

BSE

NSE

949

529

1,356

840

136

89

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Volumes (` cr)

Net Inflows (April 25, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

6,221

4,675

1,546

4,450

59,201

238

492

(254)

(894)

(8,062)

MFs

FII Derivatives (April 26, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Index Futures

1,559

1,269

290

Open Interest
9,779

Stock Futures

1,585

2,064

(479)

22,544

Price (`)

chg (%)

Company

LIC Housing Fin

247

6.3

Unitech

27

(6.4)

Sobha Developers

399

5.6

HDIL

54

(5.9)

Maruti Suzuki

1,673

5.3

HCL Technology

684

(4.8)

Idea Cellular

122

5.2

Reliance Capital

347

(4.6)

United Phosphorus

139

4.9

Oriental Bank

266

(4.6)

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

www.angelbroking.com

Losers
Price (`)

chg (%)

BSE

2,265

NSE

11,250

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Result Review
ICICI Bank (CMP: `1,144/ TP: `1,306/ Upside: 11%)
ICICI bank delivered a healthy performance for 4QFY2013, with net profit growth
of 21.2% yoy. On the operating front, the bank witnessed a healthy 22.5% yoy
growth in its Net interest income, however disappointment on the non-interest
income front with a flat yoy performance, limited the operating profit growth to
15.8% yoy. On the asset quality front, while the bank reported sequentially stable
NPA ratios, however, incremental restructuring at around `1,200cr, came in on
expected lines.
Business growth moderate; NIMs improve sequentially by 26bp: During
4QFY2013, the banks advances grew by 14.4% yoy, aided by a strong 29.9% yoy
growth in the domestic corporate book. The growth in the retail portfolio was
moderate at 11.4% yoy. On the deposits front, the bank witnessed moderate
growth of 14.3% yoy. CASA accretion remained moderate at 10.4% yoy, primarily
aided by savings deposits, which increased by 12.6% yoy, even as current deposits
declined by 10.4% yoy. CASA ratio was higher by 100bp qoq to 41.9%. The
reported overall NIM improved by 26bp qoq to 3.33%, mainly on account of 23bp
sequential improvement in the domestic NIM to 3.7%, while international NIMs
remained stable sequentially. The non-interest income (excluding treasury) de-grew
by 9.9% yoy basis to `1,866cr, however the bank registered higher treasury gains
of `342cr during the quarter (primarily bond gains) as against `158cr in
4QFY2012, which aided it to report flat performance on the overall non-interest
income front. On the asset quality front, the bank reported stability, as Gross and
Net NPA levels remained flat sequentially, on an absolute basis. Gross NPA ratio
declined sequentially by 9bp to 3.2%, while net NPA ratio came in flat at 0.8%.
During the quarter, the bank restructured loans worth `1,146cr (though higher,
but was on expected lines), thereby taking its restructured book to `5,315cr.
Outlook and valuation: The banks substantial branch expansion in the past three
to four years is expected to sustain a far more favorable deposit mix going
forward. Moreover, a lower risk balance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning
costs, which we believe will drive a 15.7% CAGR in net profit over FY2013-15E
and enable a RoE of 16.5% by FY2015E (with further upside from financial
leverage). At the current market price, the banks core banking business (after
adjusting `158/share towards value of the subsidiaries) is trading at 1.72x
FY2015E ABV (including subsidiaries, the stock is trading at 1.66x FY2015E ABV).
We value the banks subsidiaries at `158/share and the core bank at
`1,149/share (2.0x FY2015E ABV). We maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `1,306.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

26,371

3.0

9,693

84.1 626.4

1.5

15.8

14.0

1.9

FY2015E

31,618

3.0 11,152

96.7 688.5

1.4

16.5

12.2

1.7

March

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Maruti Suzuki (CMP: `1,673/ TP: `1,847/ Upside: 10%)


For 4QFY2013, Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported extremely strong results (pre SPIL
merger), beating ours as well as consensus estimates by a significant margin.
The top-line registered a healthy growth of 9.1% yoy (14.2% qoq) to `12,793cr
which was broadly in-line with our estimates. The top-line performance was
primarily driven by a strong 14.7% yoy (flat qoq) growth in net average realization
led by better product-mix (higher share of Swift, Dzire and Ertiga), price hikes and
lower levels of discounts (at `10,500/unit vs `12,100/unit in 3QFY2013). The
volumes however, registered a decline of 4.6% yoy led by the weak demand for
entry segment cars (down 13.7% yoy) and slowdown in exports (down 10.5% yoy).
The export revenue for the quarter stood at `1,530cr (strong growth of 23% yoy
and 15.9% qoq) driven by a robust net average realization growth of 37.4% yoy
(8.2% qoq). Nevertheless, the bottom-line at `1,148cr (79.3% yoy) was
substantially ahead of our expectations driven by strong expansion in EBITDA
margins (up 306bp yoy and 243bp qoq to 10.4%), higher other income (up 120%
qoq) and lower tax rate (17.1% vs. 25.8% in 3QFY2013). MSILs EBITDA margin
registered a sharp expansion of 306bp yoy to 10.4%, which was significantly
ahead of our estimates of 8.6%. The EBITDA margin expansion was led by better
product-mix, price hikes, lower average discounts and favorable currency
movement (+ve impact of ~120bp qoq). The raw-material cost as a percentage of
sales declined 310bp yoy to 76.5%, led largely by superior product-mix (towards
Swift, Dzire and Ertiga), positive impact of Yen depreciation and ongoing cost
reduction initiatives. Due to the favorable movement in exchange rate, the royalty
outgo during the quarter stood at 4.8% (down 30bp yoy and 80bp qoq). During
the quarter, MSIL merged its engine manufacturing subsidiary Suzuki Power Train
India (SPIL) with itself through a share swap ratio of 1:70 as announced earlier.
Going ahead, the ongoing weakness in Yen (down ~10% yoy against INR in
YTDCY2013) which partially benefited EBITDA margins in 4QFY2013 is expected
to enhance profitability in FY2014 as the favorable currency impact on indirect
exposure is expected to reflect completely in FY2014. We expect EBITDA margins
to improve 150bp in FY2014 driven by favorable product-mix and currency
movement, lower discounts, ongoing cost reduction initiatives and also on account
of the SPIL merger. As a result, we expect MSIL to register strong earnings CAGR of
~25% over FY2013-15. At `1,673, MSIL is trading at 13.6x FY2015E earnings
(including the impact of SPIL merger). We recommend Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `1,847, valuing the stock at 15x FY2015 earnings.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT

EPS

RoE

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

48,455 11.2

3,258 107.8

16.2

15.5 2.3

7.8

0.9

FY2015E

55,723 10.9

3,720 123.1

16.0

13.6 2.0

6.7

0.7

Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `1,597/ TP: `1,767/ Upside: 11%)


Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) reported better-than-expected results for 4QFY2013 led
by sequential improvement (up ~120bp) in operating margins to 13.8%. The
margin improvement was largely due to the depreciation of Yen (vs. the INR) which
led to significant savings on the raw-material front. While the top-line growth was
largely in-line with our estimates; bottom-line came in 16.7% ahead of our
estimates driven by strong operating performance.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

For 4QFY2013, HMCLs top-line recorded a modest growth of 1.8% yoy (down
0.7% qoq) to `6,146cr driven primarily by 4.8% yoy (1.7% qoq) growth in net
average realization. Volume performance however was subdued (down ~3% yoy
and qoq) owing to slowdown in demand and increasing competition from Honda
Motors and Scooters India. The operating performance witnessed a sharp
improvement during the quarter as margins expanded ~120bp qoq to 13.8% led
by 3.2% decline in raw-material cost. We believe this could possibly be on account
of ongoing depreciation in Yen vs. the INR. Led by better-than-expected operating
performance, bottom-line registered a robust growth of 17.7% qoq to `574cr,
which was ahead of our expectations of `492cr. On a yoy basis though, net profit
declined 4.9% following 150bp decline in operating margins.
At the CMP of `1,597, the stock is trading at 11.8x FY2015E earnings. We shall
release a detailed note post the conference call with the management which is
scheduled on April 29, 2013. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock
with a target price of `1,767.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales


(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

25,112

13.9 2,076 103.9

38.8

15.4

5.6

7.6

1.1

FY2015E

27,477

13.6 2,714 135.9

42.7

11.8

4.5

6.8

0.9

LIC Housing (CMP: `247/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)


LIC Housing Finance reported a healthy set of numbers for 4QFY2013, with net
interest income growth of 20.3% yoy and earnings growth of 24.7% yoy. Key
highlights from the results were sequentially improvement in NIMs (36bp) and
stability witnessed on the asset quality front (Gross NPA ratio at 0.61% and Net
NPA ratio at 0.36%).
NIM improved qoq; Asset quality improved: LICHFs loan book grew strongly by
23.3% yoy to `77,812cr during 4QFY2013. Loans to the individual segment grew
by 25.5% yoy, while loans to the developer segment declined by 16.3% yoy.
Hence, the share of developer loans declined from 3.9% in 3QFY2013 to 3.4% for
4QFY2013. The margins remained flat yoy at 2.45%, however, were higher by
36bp sequentially primarily due to the 27bp decline in cost of funds. During the
quarter, the company witnessed improvement in asset quality, as gross and net
NPA levels declined sequentially by 12.5% and 15.8%, respectively, on an absolute
basis. Gross and Net NPA ratios, improved by 13bp and 9bp, respectively to
0.61% and 0.36%. Provision coverage ratio improved sequentially from 39.1% to
41.4%.
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at a P/ABV multiple of
1.4x FY2015E ABV. The stock rating and target price is currently under review.
Y/E
March

www.angelbroking.com

Op. Inc
(` cr)

NIM

PAT

(%)

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE P/E
(x)

P/ABV

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

2,127

2.2 1,266

25.1

146.3

1.4

18.3 9.3

1.6

FY2015E

2,498

2.2 1,426

28.2

168.4

1.3

17.9 8.2

1.4

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Sesa Goa (CMP: `152/ TP: `163/ Upside: 7%)


For 4QFY2013, Sesa Goa (Sesa) reported disappointing results due to continuing
iron ore ban in Goa. The net sales declined by 89.8% yoy to `285cr mainly on
account of no iron ore sales. The Pig iron and Met coke sales however grew 59.0%
and 28.0% to 95kt and 90kt respectively. Consequently the company reported an
EBITDA loss of `78cr and a net loss of `215cr in 4QFY2013. Sesa reported share
of income from associate (Cairn India) of `512cr during 4QFY2013. The adjusted
PAT including share of profit from associate declined 74.4% yoy to `298cr. The
proposed Sesa-Sterlite merger has received the approval of the High Court of
Bombay at Goa on 3 April 2013. The hearings at the High Court of Madras have
been completed and the order is awaited. we continue to value Sesa-Sterlite as a
merged entity and based on its SOTP valuation maintain our Accumulate rating on
the stock with a target price of `163.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT EPS
(` cr)

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

(`)

ROIC
(%)

P/E P/BV
(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

3,742

32.9 2,785 31.3

14.8

4.9

0.7

13.3

4.4

FY2015E

4,426

32.8 2,774 31.2

12.9

4.9

0.6

10.9

3.6

Styrolution ABS Ltd. (CMP: `501/ TP: `617/ Upside: 23%)


Styrolution ABS Ltd. (Styrolution) reported poor set of numbers for 1QCY2013. Top
line growth for the quarter was flat at 2.6% yoy to `242cr, 6.9% lower than our
estimate of `260cr. EBITDA was lower by 1.0% yoy to `23.4cr, 6.13% lower than
our expectation owing to poor top-line growth. EBITDA margin for the quarter
remained constant yoy at 9.7%, better than our estimate of 9.6%. The company
reported net profit of `15cr, 15% lower than our estimates of `18cr. As we rollover
to CY2014E we continue to maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with
the revised target price of `617, based on target PE of 14x.
Y/E

Sales OPM

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

PAT EPS
(`)

CY2013E

1,069

9.6

67

CY2014E

1,223

9.6

78

ROIC

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

38

17.0 13.1

1.8

8.4

0.8

44

18.4 11.4

1.6

7.1

0.7

(%)

P/E P/BV

Goodyear India (CMP: `256/ TP: `352/ Upside: 38%)


For 1QCY2013, Goodyear reported a better-than-expected top-line of `337cr,
marginally higher on a yoy basis from `331cr in 1QCY2012. A decline in raw
material cost led to an expansion of the EBITDA margin by 302bp yoy from 6.0%
in 1QCY2012 to 9.0% in 1QCY2013. This margin expansion coupled with higher
other income led to a stupendous growth in net profit of 90.6% yoy to `21cr from
`11cr in 1QCY2012. Though a slowdown in auto industry is expected to keep
revenue growth restrained, we believe lower rubber prices would help growth in
net profit, going forward. Hence, we upgrade the stock to Buy with a revised target
price of `352 based on a target PE of 8x for CY2014E.

www.angelbroking.com

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

CY2013E

1,453

9.4

89

CY2014E

1,559

9.8

96

RoE P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

38.4

22.9 6.7

1.4

2.3

0.2

41.4

20.8 6.2

1.2

1.6

0.2

(%)

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Result Preview
Hindustan Unilever (CMP: `465/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Hindustan Unilever is scheduled to declare its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect
the top-line to grow by 12.2% yoy to `6,354cr. OPM is expected to increase by
55bp yoy to 13.4%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 29.6% yoy to `854cr.
We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

28,974

13.5 3,663 16.9

74.3

27.4

17.5

24.2

3.3

FY2015E

32,970

13.5 3,913 18.1

58.3

25.7

13.1

21.0

2.8

Sterlite Industries (CMP: `90/ TP: `98/ Upside: 9%)


Sterlite Industries is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. The top-line is
expected to grow by 5.3% yoy to `11,334cr. EBITDA margin is however expected
to contract by 200bp yoy to 23.1% due to lower aluminum segment profitability.
The bottom-line is expected to increase by 10.5% yoy to `1,522cr due to higher
other income. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

45,864

24.8

6,578

19.6

12.1

4.6

0.5

2.0

0.5

FY2015E

46,970

26.3

7,295

21.7

12.1

4.1

0.5

1.6

0.4

Bosch (CMP: `9,028/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


Bosch (BOS) is slated to announce its 1QCY2013 results today. We expect Bosch
(BOS) to post a ~14% yoy decline in revenues during the quarter to `1,983cr led
by continued weakness in the MHCV and tractor industries, which are the primary
drivers of company's revenues. On the operating front, we expect margins to
decline by a significant ~780bp yoy to 13% led by continued raw-material cost
pressures (due to INR depreciation) and lower utilization levels. As a result, the net
profit is expected to decline by ~46% yoy to `181cr during the quarter. At `9,028,
the stock is trading at 21.3x CY2014E earnings. Currently, we have a Neutral
rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

Dec.

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales


(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2013E

9,717

16.2 1,114 354.7

17.2

25.5

4.4

16.0

2.5

CY2014E

11,092

17.0 1,329 423.3

17.5

21.3

3.7

13.0

2.1

Shree Cement (CMP: `4,324/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


Shree Cement is scheduled to declare its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect
the top-line to grow by 9.7% yoy to `1,510cr. The OPM is expected to decline
by 375bp yoy to 23.4%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 76.8% yoy to
`207cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(US $)
138

FY2014E

6,706

28.7 1,178 338

28.5

12.8

3.2

5.5

FY2015E

7,751

27.7 1,308 376

25.2

11.5

2.6

4.3

Note: Computed on TTM basis

Exide Industries (CMP: `139/ TP: `146/ Upside: 5%)


Exide Industries (EXID) is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We
expect EXID to post a modest revenue growth of ~7% yoy to `1,551cr led by
steady market share gains in the replacement segment. The sluggish demand in
the OEM segment, however, is expected to restrict the overall performance. We
expect EBITDA margins to decline ~230bp yoy to 12.5% primarily on account of
increase in lead prices (up ~10% yoy), which is expected to result in a ~12% yoy
decline in net profit to `126cr. At the CMP of `139, the stock is trading at 15.7x
FY2015E earnings. Currently, we have an Accumulate rating on the stock with a
target price of `146.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

7,026

14.2

657

7.7

18.0

18.0

3.0

9.7

1.4

FY2015E

8,026

14.2

753

8.9

17.9

15.7

2.6

8.1

1.1

Bank of Maharashtra (CMP: `50 / TP: `56 / Upside: 11.8%)


Bank of Maharashtra is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We
expect the bank to report a 28.6% yoy growth in Net Interest Income to `832cr.
Growth in non-interest income is expected to come in moderate at 10.8% yoy to
`191cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by only 4.2% yoy to `594cr,
on a high base and hence, operating profit is expected to grow by 71.9% yoy.
Provisioning expenses are expected to decline by 10.3% yoy, while tax expenses
are expected to increase from `33cr to `87cr. Overall, we expect net profit to
come in at `213cr, as against from `73cr in 4QFY2012. At the CMP, the stock is
trading at 0.6x FY2014E ABV. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock,
with a target price of `56.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

4,289

2.9

826

11.6

79.3

0.6

15.7

4.3

0.6

FY2015E

4,670

2.8

922

13.1

89.4

0.6

15.6

3.8

0.6

March

Hexaware (CMP: `83 / TP: `105 / Upside: 27%)


Hexaware is slated to announce its 1QCY2013 results today. We expect the
company to post a revenue growth of 2.4% qoq to US$94.6mn. In rupee terms,
revenues are expected to come in at `512cr, up 2% qoq. EBITDA margin is
expected to increase by 180bp qoq to 18.8%. PAT is expected to come in at `74cr.
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `105.

www.angelbroking.com

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2013E

2,137

18.8

311

10.4

22.6

8.0

1.8

5.1

1.0

CY2014E

2,350

19.2

352

11.7

22.1

7.1

1.5

4.4

0.8

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

KPIT (CMP: `95/ TP: `130/ Upside: 37%)


KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results
today. We expect the company to post revenue of US$105mn, ie higher by 1.5%.
In INR terms, the revenue is expected to come in at `569cr, higher by 1.1% qoq.
The EBITDA margin is expected to increase by 20bp qoq to 15.8%. PAT is expected
to come in at `54cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of
`130.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

2,458

15.5

241

13.1

20.9

7.2

1.5

3.7

0.6

FY2015E

2,729

15.2

267

14.5

18.8

6.5

1.2

2.9

0.4

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimates


Exide Industries (29/04/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,602

1,446

11

1,654

(3)

EBITDA

204

213

(4)

165

24

EBITDA margin (%)

12.7

14.7

Net profit

131

143

10.0
(8)

104

26

Sterlite Industries Consolidated (29/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

11,049

10,763

10,692

2,693

2,705

(0)

2,327

16

24.4

25.1

1,476

1,277

21.8
16

1,191

24

Dabur India Consolidated (30/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,564

1,364

15

1,631

(4)

EBITDA

261

224

16

275

(5)

EBITDA margin (%)

16.7

16.5

Net profit

199

171

Net sales

16.8
17

211

(6)

Godrej Consumer Products Consolidated (30/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,695

1,323

28

1,691

EBITDA

309

250

23

285

EBITDA margin (%)

18.2

18.9

Net profit

206

193

172

20

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

489

335

46

455

Net sales

16.8

IDFC Consolidated (01/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Sterlite Industries Consolidated (29/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

11,045

10,763

10,692

2,696

2,705

(0)

2,327

16

24.4

25.1

1,480

1,277

21.8
16

1,191

24

Dabur India Consolidated (30/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,564

1,364

15

1,631

(4)

EBITDA

261

224

16

275

(5)

EBITDA margin (%)

16.7

16.5

Net profit

199

171

16.8
17

211

(6)

Godrej Consumer Products Consolidated (30/04/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,695

1,323

28

1,691

EBITDA

309

250

23

285

EBITDA margin (%)

18.2

18.9

Net profit

206

193

16.8
7

172

Economic and Political News

Monsoon in 2013 to be better than last year: IMD


DoT proposes amendment in licence terms regarding CMS
Ficci pitches for 1% cut in rates by RBI to boost growth
Gold imports down 12% in Apr-Feb 2012-13
CCEA likely to consider IKEA's FDI proposal next week

Corporate News

Air India gets `800cr in equity infusion


Tata Power pushes for 60-85paise hike to keep Mundra UMPP viable
Third 500 MW unit of NTPC's Jhajjar plant starts selling power
Lupin receives FDA nod for oral contraceptive drug
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

20

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013
Result Calendar
Date

Company

April 29, 2013

HUL, Sterlite Inds, Bosch India, Exide Industries, IOB, Areva, Hexaware, Bank of Maharashtra, KPIT Cummins

April 30, 2013

Dabur India, Godrej Consumer, Petronet LNG, Marico, Aventis, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Taj GVK

May 01, 2013

May 03, 2013

IDFC, GlaxoSmith Con


Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mah. Bank, Canara Bank, Oriental Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank, Alembic Pharma,
Automotive Axle
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Titan Inds., Hind. Const., Honeywell Automation

May 04, 2013

Grasim Inds, Jaiprakash Asso., Gujarat Gas

May 02, 2013

May 05, 2013


May 06, 2013

Mundra Port, Adani Power, South Ind.Bank

May 07, 2013

GSK Pharma, Shriram Trans., Glenmark Pharma., ITNL, CEAT

May 08, 2013

HDFC, Ranbaxy, ABB, Corporation Bank

May 09, 2013

Asian Paints, Union Bank

May 10, 2013

NTPC, Cummins India, Central Bank, Ashok Leyland, Apollo Tyres, Punj Lloyd

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data

April 29, 2013

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Value

Apr F

(22.30)

April 30, 2013

1:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

2:00PM

UK

6:30AM

China

11:30PM

US

1:25PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

5:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Last Reported Estimated

May 1, 2013

May 2, 2013
May 3, 2013

(22.30)

Thousands

Apr

13.00

2.00

S.A./ 1985=100

Apr

59.70

59.75

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Apr

48.30

48.30

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Apr

50.90

50.70

FOMC rate decision

May 1

0.25

0.25

Value

Apr F

47.90

47.90

May 2

0.75

0.50

Thousands

Apr

88.00

145.00

6:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

Apr

7.60

7.60

11:00AM

India

RBI Repo rate

May 3

7.50

7.25

11:00AM

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

May 3

4.00

4.00

11:00AM

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

May 3

6.50

6.25

May 6, 2013

1:25PM

Germany PMI Services

Value

Apr F

49.20

--

May 8, 2013

4:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Apr

10.00

--

May 9, 2013

2:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Mar

(2.20)

--

4:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

% Ratio

May 9

0.50

0.50

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Apr

2.10

--

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Apr

2.10

--

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends


10.0
(%)

(%)
11.2

6.0
4.0

0.6

(0.1)

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

(2.8)

Mfg. PMI

58.0

7.5

(0.5)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)
7.6

(1.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

7.6

(0.7)

(2.0)

Oct-12

(4.0)

(1.3)

Mar-12

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

(2.0)

Sep-12

5.3 5.5 5.3


4.5

7.5

2.4

2.0

Aug-12

6.0

Jul-12

5.7

2.5

2.0

Jun-12

6.5

8.0

Services PMI

8.1
7.3

7.2

7.3
6.6

56.0

6.8
6.0

54.0
52.0

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

48.0

Feb-12

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

50.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

30.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
7.50

8.00
15.0

7.00
6.50

6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

4.00

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Mar-13

4.00

3.00

May-12

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

5.00

Apr-12

(30.0)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

0.0

(15.0)

Feb-13

7.5

May-12

7.6

7.5

8.2

Apr-12

8.5

Source: CSO, Angel Research

9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

8.4

8.0
9.2

9.0

1QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

125

2,423

1,657

1,906

14.1

14.1

7.7

8.9

16.2

14.0

3.4

2.9

22.2

21.9

1.4

1.2

United Phosphorus

Buy

139

232

6,135

10,298

11,310

16.5

16.5

20.5

23.2

6.8

6.0

1.1

1.0

18.0

17.4

0.6

0.5

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

268

326

4,577

3,418

3,892

15.1

14.9

19.8

21.7

13.5

12.3

3.3

2.7

27.1

23.7

1.3

1.2

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

91

103

4,587

14,401

15,841

11.4

11.5

13.6

15.9

6.7

5.7

1.1

1.0

18.4

18.2

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

22

27

5,973

13,833

16,192

9.6

9.7

2.0

2.7

11.4

8.5

1.9

1.7

12.1

15.2

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

299

452

934

1,103

10.2

10.7

24.5

34.3

12.2

8.7

1.6

1.4

13.2

16.9

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,893

2,014

54,782

22,552

25,498

18.6

18.6

117.9

134.3

16.1

14.1

5.8

4.6

40.2

36.6

2.0

1.7

Bharat Forge

Neutral

232

5,401

6,198

6,793

14.6

14.9

14.5

17.3

16.0

13.4

2.1

1.9

13.6

14.7

1.0

0.9

Bosch India*

Neutral

9,028

28,346

9,717

11,092

16.2

17.0

354.7

423.3

25.5

21.3

4.4

3.7

17.2

17.5

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

107

155

365

5,403

6,057

8.3

8.3

36.4

41.3

2.9

2.6

0.4

0.4

15.3

16.6

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

139

146

11,815

7,026

8,027

14.2

14.2

7.7

8.9

17.9

15.6

3.0

2.6

18.0

17.9

1.4

1.2

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,346

2,237

1,525

1,742

14.5

15.7

88.4

109.5

15.2

12.3

2.2

1.9

15.5

16.5

1.3

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,597

1,767

31,889

25,112

27,477

13.9

13.6

103.9

135.9

15.4

11.8

5.6

4.6

38.8

42.7

1.1

0.9

JK Tyre

Buy

111

154

458

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

3.0

2.5

0.5

0.4

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

891

1,006

54,721

44,550

50,260

11.4

11.7

59.6

68.3

15.0

13.1

3.1

2.6

22.3

21.6

1.0

0.8

1,673

1,847

48,348

48,455

55,723

11.2

10.9

107.8

123.2

15.5

13.6

2.4

2.0

16.2

16.0

0.8

0.7

Buy

183

222

10,758

28,442

31,493

7.5

7.8

12.5

14.8

14.6

12.4

3.6

2.9

27.5

25.8

0.5

0.5

Subros

Buy

26

30

154

1,479

1,685

10.0

9.9

5.5

7.5

4.7

3.4

0.5

0.5

11.1

13.7

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Accumulate

296

324

78,966 206,341 227,695

12.8

13.5

32.3

39.0

9.2

7.6

1.9

1.6

23.1

23.2

0.5

0.4

TVS Motor

Accumulate

38

40

1,791

7,714

8,532

6.1

6.3

4.8

5.8

7.8

6.5

1.2

1.1

16.5

17.5

0.2

0.1

Maruti

Accumulate

Motherson Sumi

Capital Goods
ABB*

Reduce

498

452

10,555

8,073

9,052

5.5

7.2

11.3

17.4

44.2

28.7

3.8

3.5

8.9

12.8

1.3

1.1

BGR Energy

Neutral

188

1,354

4,114

4,886

11.4

10.7

24.9

28.0

7.5

6.7

1.0

0.9

25.2

22.6

0.6

0.6

BHEL

Neutral

189

46,235

43,757

40,934

17.3

16.9

20.9

19.0

9.0

10.0

2.0

1.8

23.7

18.8

0.9

0.9

Blue Star

Buy

161

230

1,448

2,896

3,087

5.6

6.2

9.3

11.7

17.3

13.7

2.9

2.4

17.6

19.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

91

117

5,812

13,790

15,095

6.4

7.4

6.9

9.4

13.2

9.7

1.5

1.3

11.7

14.5

0.5

0.4

Jyoti Structures

Accumulate

30

34

245

3,074

3,355

9.0

8.8

8.7

10.2

3.4

2.9

0.3

0.3

10.4

11.1

0.3

0.2

KEC International

Buy

53

67

1,374

7,750

8,631

6.8

7.0

7.7

9.2

7.0

5.8

1.0

0.9

20.8

20.8

0.3

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

580

6,910

5,931

6,592

9.6

9.7

31.0

34.3

18.7

16.9

3.3

2.8

18.6

17.9

1.0

0.9

1,246

1,361

23,391

12,182

13,435

21.0

22.4

78.7

98.8

15.8

12.6

2.9

2.6

19.0

21.4

1.6

1.4

Cement
ACC

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

188

28,957

10,681

11,991

25.0

25.5

10.8

12.8

17.3

14.7

3.0

2.7

18.1

19.4

2.2

1.9

India Cements

Neutral

81

2,494

4,777

5,276

17.3

17.1

8.8

10.9

9.2

7.5

0.7

0.7

7.5

8.8

0.9

0.8

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

96

143

1,133

2,313

2,728

19.8

20.7

16.6

23.1

5.8

4.2

0.8

0.6

13.6

16.5

1.0

0.8

Madras Cements

Neutral

241

5,740

4,293

4,855

27.4

28.6

21.8

28.2

11.1

8.5

2.0

1.7

19.6

21.3

1.8

1.5

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,324

15,064

6,706

7,751

28.7

27.7

338.2

375.5

12.8

11.5

3.3

2.6

28.5

25.2

1.6

1.2

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,907

52,294

21,947

25,049

23.8

23.8

106.1

119.8

18.0

15.9

3.0

2.6

17.7

17.3

2.5

2.1

188

272

987

2,013

2,293

22.5

22.5

26.0

24.4

7.2

7.7

0.8

0.7

11.7

9.9

2.1

1.9

12

227

2,281

2,492

5.9

6.9

0.7

2.0

18.0

6.1

0.4

0.4

2.3

6.5

0.4

0.3

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

116

167

3,850

4,152

4,624

44.4

45.0

17.0

17.2

6.8

6.7

1.1

0.9

16.2

14.6

3.3

3.4

ITNL

Buy

177

230

3,433

7,177

7,772

27.4

28.9

29.4

32.4

6.0

5.5

0.9

0.8

16.5

15.9

2.7

2.7

IVRCL Infra

Buy

20

35

621

6,287

6,836

8.5

8.5

2.3

3.0

8.6

6.7

0.3

0.3

3.4

4.2

0.5

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

75

95

16,654

14,914

15,699

26.2

26.4

4.2

4.4

17.9

17.3

1.2

1.1

6.8

6.6

2.5

2.4

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,542

1,795

94,948

69,586

79,247

11.2

11.1

75.1

84.9

20.5

18.2

2.9

2.6

15.2

15.0

1.6

1.4

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

32

45

816

6,576

7,264

8.2

8.3

4.1

4.8

7.8

6.7

0.3

0.3

4.2

4.7

0.5

0.5

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

52

1,732

1,338

1,542

10.2

10.2

3.0

4.8

17.6

11.0

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.2

5.5

5.3

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

114

153

1,721

2,511

2,736

10.6

10.6

7.3

7.8

15.7

14.6

2.0

1.8

13.3

12.7

0.9

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

118

164

584

6,824

7,563

9.2

9.4

18.0

23.4

6.6

5.1

0.4

0.4

6.9

8.3

0.5

0.4

Unity Infra

Buy

31

45

232

2,455

2,734

13.4

13.0

14.6

14.9

2.2

2.1

0.3

0.2

12.3

11.3

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Buy

134

155

6,710

7,137

7,907

2.9

2.8

32.3

36.0

4.2

3.7

0.6

0.5

14.2

14.2

Andhra Bank

Neutral

92

5,165

5,285

5,937

3.0

2.9

21.2

23.4

4.4

4.0

0.6

0.6

13.4

13.4

Axis Bank

Buy

1,487

1,737

69,573

19,055

22,710

3.3

3.2

130.7

152.3

11.4

9.8

1.8

1.6

17.2

17.6

Bank of Baroda

Buy

697

815

29,370

16,318

18,682

2.4

2.4

121.4

144.6

5.8

4.8

0.8

0.7

15.2

16.0

Bank of India

Accumulate

326

360

19,423

14,284

16,295

2.3

2.3

55.9

68.4

5.8

4.8

0.8

0.7

13.9

15.2

Bank of Maharashtra

Accumulate

50

56

3,307

4,289

4,670

2.9

2.8

11.6

13.1

4.3

3.8

0.6

0.6

15.7

15.6

Canara Bank

Accumulate

422

461

18,672

11,673

13,208

2.3

2.3

74.8

85.8

5.6

4.9

0.8

0.7

13.7

14.1

Central Bank

Neutral

69

7,255

8,079

9,086

2.6

2.6

14.9

18.0

4.7

3.9

0.7

0.6

12.2

13.3

Corporation Bank

Buy

379

453

5,802

5,397

5,973

2.2

2.2

96.3

105.9

3.9

3.6

0.6

0.5

14.6

14.4

Dena Bank

Accumulate

93

101

3,249

3,334

3,700

2.7

2.7

23.6

26.5

3.9

3.5

0.6

0.5

15.5

15.3

Federal Bank

Neutral

462

7,904

2,916

3,389

3.3

3.3

50.1

59.4

9.2

7.8

1.1

1.0

12.8

13.7

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Reduce

873

822

134,933

8,928

10,684

3.7

3.7

38.4

45.3

22.7

19.3

4.9

4.4

32.5

32.4

HDFC Bank

Neutral

689

164,028

27,682

33,916

4.6

4.6

35.3

42.7

19.5

16.2

3.8

3.2

21.3

21.8

ICICI Bank

Accumulate

1,144

1,306

132,006

26,371

31,618

3.0

3.0

84.1

96.7

13.6

11.8

1.8

1.7

15.8

16.5

IDBI Bank

Accumulate

89

96

11,841

9,309

10,541

2.1

2.2

20.1

23.4

4.4

3.8

0.6

0.5

12.8

13.5

Indian Bank

Buy

163

200

7,005

6,276

6,968

3.1

3.1

38.3

42.3

4.3

3.9

0.6

0.6

15.2

14.9

IOB

Buy

67

78

6,201

8,205

9,048

2.6

2.5

16.4

20.3

4.1

3.3

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.1

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,288

6,242

3,032

3,118

3.8

3.5

218.1

200.9

5.9

6.4

1.1

1.0

19.9

16.0

LIC Housing Finance

Neutral

247

12,465

2,127

2,498

2.2

2.2

25.1

28.2

9.9

8.8

1.7

1.5

18.3

17.9

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

266

282

7,758

6,791

7,478

2.7

2.7

56.7

63.4

4.7

4.2

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.1

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

772

889

27,283

21,161

24,166

3.3

3.3

153.4

176.4

5.0

4.4

0.8

0.7

16.1

16.3

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

24

3,172

1,826

2,081

3.0

2.9

4.0

4.5

5.9

5.3

1.0

0.9

17.6

17.1

St Bk of India

Accumulate

2,290

2,567

156,613

67,091

76,746

3.2

3.1

241.2

280.4

9.5

8.2

1.5

1.3

16.5

17.0

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

117

130

7,064

7,340

8,212

2.9

2.8

26.4

28.7

4.4

4.1

0.7

0.6

15.8

15.2

UCO Bank

Neutral

67

5,050

6,126

6,665

2.6

2.5

12.2

14.4

5.5

4.7

0.8

0.7

11.8

12.6

Union Bank

Accumulate

234

264

13,938

11,226

12,769

2.7

2.7

41.0

47.8

5.7

4.9

0.8

0.7

14.8

15.4

United Bank

Accumulate

60

68

2,230

3,597

4,008

2.6

2.7

16.0

20.8

3.7

2.9

0.5

0.4

12.5

14.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

53

2,621

2,600

2,946

2.0

2.1

9.7

11.0

5.4

4.8

0.6

0.6

11.4

11.7

Yes Bank

Neutral

498

17,850

4,390

5,411

2.8

2.8

41.6

47.9

12.0

10.4

2.5

2.1

23.2

22.1

Asian Paints

Neutral

4,706

45,140

13,319

15,805

15.7

15.7

143.8

170.2

32.7

27.7

10.3

8.1

35.1

32.7

3.3

2.8

Britannia

Neutral

566

6,766

6,417

7,446

5.1

5.5

20.3

25.2

27.9

22.5

9.5

7.5

37.4

37.3

1.0

0.8

Colgate

Neutral

1,395

18,969

3,588

4,130

21.1

21.6

44.7

51.9

31.2

26.9

28.1

20.9

100.0

89.1

5.1

4.4

Dabur India

Neutral

146

25,456

7,183

8,340

16.8

16.8

5.4

6.3

27.0

23.1

10.5

8.2

43.9

39.9

3.5

3.0

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,841

16,155

3,617

4,260

16.1

16.4

120.6

146.4

31.9

26.2

9.8

7.9

33.8

33.4

4.1

3.4

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

846

28,804

7,801

9,017

17.0

17.0

26.5

31.9

31.9

26.5

7.2

5.9

26.5

25.9

3.8

3.2

HUL

Neutral

465

100,587

28,974

32,970

13.5

13.5

17.0

18.1

27.5

25.7

17.5

13.1

74.3

58.3

3.3

2.8

ITC

Neutral

319

252,029

33,506

39,067

36.8

37.0

11.1

13.0

28.8

24.6

9.3

7.6

35.5

34.1

7.2

6.1

Marico

Neutral

219

14,101

5,352

6,204

14.0

14.0

7.9

9.8

27.6

22.3

5.7

4.6

22.8

22.9

2.6

2.2

Nestle*

Neutral

4,714

45,450

9,739

11,307

21.5

22.2

131.6

159.9

35.8

29.5

18.1

13.0

58.8

69.5

4.6

3.9

Tata Global

Neutral

140

8,682

7,998

8,798

9.7

9.8

7.9

8.7

17.8

16.1

2.2

2.1

9.6

9.8

1.0

0.9

FMCG

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

IT
HCL Tech^

Buy

684

863

47,590

28,633

32,216

21.5

20.7

57.3

61.7

11.9

11.1

2.8

2.4

24.0

21.5

1.5

1.2

Hexaware*

Buy

83

105

2,470

2,137

2,350

18.8

19.2

10.4

11.7

8.0

7.1

1.8

1.5

22.6

22.1

1.0

0.9

Infosys

Accumulate

2,212

2,465

127,038

43,338

47,244

27.5

27.7

169.4

182.6

13.1

12.1

2.7

2.3

20.8

19.3

2.3

2.0

Infotech Enterprises

Buy

165

196

1,840

1,994

2,039

18.1

18.5

20.2

21.8

8.2

7.6

1.1

1.0

13.8

13.1

0.5

0.4

KPIT Cummins

Buy

95

130

1,824

2,458

2,729

15.5

15.2

13.1

14.5

7.2

6.5

1.5

1.2

20.9

18.8

0.6

0.5

Mahindra Satyam

Buy

106

143

12,450

8,456

9,385

19.3

19.1

10.6

11.9

10.0

8.9

2.2

1.8

22.4

20.1

1.0

0.8

Mindtree

Accumulate

810

926

3,365

2,587

2,823

19.4

19.4

87.2

92.6

9.3

8.8

2.0

1.6

21.8

18.8

1.0

0.8

Mphasis&

Accumulate

375

395

7,883

6,096

6,646

17.6

17.4

38.1

41.6

9.9

9.0

1.4

1.2

14.2

13.7

0.8

0.6

NIIT

Buy

24

30

392

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

5.5

4.4

0.6

0.5

10.3

12.0

0.1

0.1

Persistent

Buy

508

602

2,033

1,433

1,591

24.7

24.6

55.5

60.2

9.2

8.4

1.7

1.4

18.4

16.8

1.0

0.8

TCS

Buy

1,368

1,585

267,787

71,833

81,893

28.4

28.0

78.5

88.0

17.4

15.5

5.3

4.3

30.2

27.9

3.5

3.0

Tech Mahindra

Buy

926

1,230

11,866

7,699

8,315

19.3

18.1

107.0

115.0

8.7

8.1

1.9

1.5

21.7

19.1

1.5

1.3

Wipro

Buy

330

385

81,301

40,173

43,697

20.4

20.6

26.2

28.5

12.6

11.6

2.5

2.1

19.7

18.4

1.5

1.3

D B Corp

Buy

227

272

4,171

1,787

1,974

25.4

26.4

14.5

16.9

15.6

13.5

3.3

2.8

22.4

22.2

2.2

1.9

HT Media

Accumulate

102

117

2,400

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.0

9.1

12.8

11.3

1.4

1.2

11.2

11.4

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

91

121

3,032

1,698

1,908

23.9

24.5

7.4

8.4

12.4

10.9

3.1

2.7

26.7

26.8

1.9

1.7

PVR

Neutral

330

1,309

1,343

1,521

18.8

18.9

18.3

22.9

18.0

14.5

1.7

1.9

10.6

12.3

1.0

0.9

Sun TV Network

Neutral

419

16,526

2,293

2,571

68.7

68.7

19.3

22.7

21.7

18.5

5.3

4.7

26.1

27.3

6.7

5.8

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

457

10,340

13,794

17,335

30.7

34.8

48.9

83.6

9.3

5.5

1.0

0.8

11.2

16.7

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Accumulate

319

345

201,555

72,174

76,311

33.3

28.4

28.4

30.9

11.2

10.3

3.1

2.7

37.6

36.2

2.0

1.8

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

17

26

578

2,074

2,176

10.4

11.3

1.9

2.3

8.8

7.3

0.1

0.1

3.7

4.3

0.5

0.2

GMDC

Buy

153

213

4,853

1,944

2,317

49.9

51.7

20.8

25.6

7.4

6.0

1.6

1.3

24.3

24.6

2.0

1.5

Hind. Zinc

Buy

119

145

50,091

12,358

13,659

51.4

51.6

16.0

17.6

7.4

6.7

1.3

1.2

19.4

18.4

1.8

1.2

Hindalco

Neutral

99

18,954

88,987

94,163

9.2

9.7

13.8

15.9

7.2

6.2

0.5

0.5

7.6

8.1

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

704

15,714

39,524

42,064

17.1

16.9

71.8

86.3

9.8

8.2

0.8

0.8

8.6

9.6

0.7

0.6

MOIL

Accumulate

229

243

3,843

954

1,062

45.5

47.4

26.1

29.1

8.8

7.9

1.3

1.1

15.1

15.2

1.5

1.2

Monnet Ispat

Buy

198

291

1,264

2,883

3,181

21.7

23.6

40.3

57.7

4.9

3.4

0.5

0.4

10.1

13.0

1.3

1.1

Nalco

Neutral

36

9,214

8,187

8,416

14.5

14.7

3.2

3.3

11.2

11.0

0.8

0.7

6.8

6.7

0.6

0.6

NMDC

Buy

127

179

50,193

10,329

12,540

73.8

75.0

16.6

19.0

7.6

6.7

1.5

1.3

20.6

20.2

2.7

2.1

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

62

25,751

53,685

152

163

13,223

3,742

30,145

45,864

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY15E

64,183

9.3

12.2

4,426

32.9

32.8

46,970

23.8

25.3

29,608 141,775 151,672

10.5

11.4

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

5.5

8.3

11.4

7.6

0.6

0.6

31.3

31.2

4.9

4.9

0.7

0.6

18.8

20.9

4.8

4.3

0.5

0.5

35.3

51.7

8.6

5.9

0.6

0.6

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

5.4

7.7

0.8

0.8

14.8

12.9

4.3

3.5

11.7

11.8

0.6

0.5

7.6

10.3

0.5

0.5

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Neutral

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

Sterlite Inds

Accumulate

90

98

Tata Steel

Buy

305

430

Sarda

Buy

110

153

396

1,494

1,568

19.1

20.3

31.3

36.5

3.5

3.0

0.4

0.4

11.8

12.4

0.6

0.5

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

36

48

484

2,668

2,834

10.0

10.1

4.6

5.2

7.8

7.0

0.2

0.2

3.2

3.4

0.5

0.4

Buy

88

118

287

2,425

2,552

13.7

14.8

33.5

45.3

2.6

1.9

0.3

0.2

11.2

13.1

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Accumulate

300

345

57,308

16,482

16,228

69.4

53.3

53.3

49.6

5.6

6.1

0.9

0.8

16.5

13.6

2.1

1.8

GAIL

Neutral

351

44,498

55,815

63,013

15.3

15.2

35.9

41.5

9.8

8.5

1.6

1.4

17.0

17.1

0.7

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

324

354

277,497 157,962 175,367

35.1

36.2

34.3

39.3

9.5

8.3

1.6

1.5

18.2

18.6

1.5

1.3

Reliance Industries

Neutral

793

256,113 380,031 407,721

9.9

69.3

69.3

78.0

11.5

10.2

1.1

1.0

11.5

11.7

0.6

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

245

3,146

3,707

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

10.4

9.6

2.9

2.5

29.6

28.2

0.7

0.7

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

305

4,264

3,700

4,218

23.4

22.8

26.6

30.4

11.4

10.0

2.4

2.0

22.6

21.7

1.2

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

136

174

10,230

41,362

40,852

5.8

6.5

15.6

17.4

8.7

7.9

1.9

1.6

24.1

22.5

0.3

0.3

68

3,832

1,079

983

91.8

91.9

8.8

7.8

7.8

8.7

1.3

1.2

17.8

14.1

3.3

3.5

Alembic Pharma

Accumulate

111

122

2,096

1,714

1,976

17.1

19.0

9.5

12.2

11.7

9.1

3.1

2.4

30.2

29.8

1.3

1.1

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

190

264

5,539

6,279

7,033

16.0

16.0

15.2

19.2

12.5

9.9

1.7

1.4

19.2

18.0

1.4

1.2

Aventis*

Neutral

2,512

5,786

1,682

1,917

16.6

16.6

92.4

99.1

27.2

25.4

3.8

3.8

15.7

14.8

3.1

2.5

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

774

962

15,847

7,386

8,863

18.0

18.0

39.5

48.1

19.6

16.1

4.4

3.6

24.8

24.7

2.4

2.0

Cipla

Accumulate

410

463

32,892

9,130

10,543

24.8

23.0

21.6

23.2

19.0

17.7

3.1

2.7

17.6

16.2

3.3

2.8

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

1,990

33,784

11,662

13,101

21.0

20.8

92.9

103.9

21.4

19.2

4.1

3.5

20.8

19.6

3.0

2.7

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Neutral

68

206

550

1,536

1,739

20.2

20.9

15.4

20.6

4.4

3.3

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.7

1.0

0.8

2,201

18,646

2,993

3,319

30.4

30.2

78.1

86.7

28.2

25.4

8.6

7.7

31.6

31.9

5.4

4.8

Buy

63

90

582

784

902

15.2

15.2

7.8

9.0

8.1

7.0

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.8

1.0

0.8

Ipca labs

Buy

516

676

6,510

3,474

4,168

21.0

21.0

37.3

45.1

13.8

11.4

3.3

2.6

26.4

25.3

2.0

1.7

Lupin

Buy

685

792

30,642

11,564

13,847

21.1

21.1

32.8

39.6

20.9

17.3

4.8

3.8

25.7

24.7

2.7

2.2

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

459

19,406

11,400

12,060

12.5

12.5

21.6

22.5

21.2

20.4

4.1

3.5

20.6

18.5

1.6

1.5

Sun Pharma

Reduce

956

888

98,833

12,563

14,698

42.6

42.6

29.8

35.5

32.1

26.9

5.7

4.8

19.2

19.3

7.2

6.0

72

78

1,082

1,535

1,570

31.9

31.6

13.1

14.1

5.5

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

12.2

1.0

0.8

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

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Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Accumulate

155

163

127,640

81,951

92,264

24.1

24.3

13.6

14.9

11.4

10.4

1.4

1.3

13.0

13.1

2.3

2.1

DLF

Buy

238

288

40,370

9,699

12,010

37.0

36.9

6.0

8.4

39.8

28.3

1.5

1.4

3.8

5.1

5.6

4.6

MLIFE

Accumulate

409

446

1,670

888

1,002

26.7

25.9

36.3

40.6

11.3

10.1

1.2

1.1

10.8

11.0

2.1

1.9

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

318

120,913

86,933

96,121

30.2

31.2

10.3

15.7

31.0

20.3

2.2

2.0

7.0

9.7

2.1

1.8

Idea Cellular

Neutral

122

40,534

24,959

27,232

27.1

27.5

3.7

4.7

32.9

26.0

2.7

2.4

8.1

9.2

2.0

1.8

Rcom

Neutral

93

19,206

22,221

24,253

32.0

32.2

4.3

6.4

21.5

14.5

0.5

0.5

2.4

3.4

2.4

2.0

11.8

12.4

71.2

83.0

19.1

16.4

3.8

3.3

21.6

21.5

1.3

1.0

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Buy

1,361

1,659

2,892

1,863

2,081

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

173

237

1,725

3,929

4,480

7.4

7.7

15.5

19.7

11.2

8.8

1.9

1.6

17.4

18.7

0.4

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

447

620

566

596

743

16.2

16.1

45.0

56.3

9.9

7.9

2.5

1.9

27.8

26.9

1.0

0.8

Cravatex

Buy

337

566

87

308

351

7.0

7.0

39.6

47.2

8.5

7.1

1.9

1.5

21.8

21.0

0.4

0.3

Finolex Cables

Buy

53

68

813

2,559

2,893

9.8

9.8

9.8

11.3

5.4

4.7

0.8

0.7

14.1

14.1

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

381

570

497

2,299

2,621

4.7

4.9

46.3

57.0

8.2

6.7

0.4

0.4

5.0

5.8

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Buy

256

352

590

1,453

1,560

9.4

9.8

38.4

41.4

6.7

6.2

1.4

1.2

22.9

20.8

0.2

0.2

Hitachi

Buy

129

177

350

1,053

1,169

6.3

7.1

13.8

17.7

9.3

7.3

1.3

1.1

15.0

16.7

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation* Buy

2,409

2,842

2,130

2,117

2,491

8.1

7.8

137.9

157.9

17.5

15.3

2.6

2.3

16.0

15.8

0.9

0.8

IFB Agro

Accumulate

173

198

155

495

651

12.7

12.9

29.3

39.5

5.9

4.4

0.8

0.7

15.4

17.6

0.4

0.3

ITD Cementation

Buy

179

238

206

1,430

1,573

12.1

12.2

21.8

30.6

8.2

5.8

0.5

0.5

6.1

8.0

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

175

2,828

979

1,164

14.9

15.1

6.0

7.7

29.2

22.8

3.6

3.3

12.9

15.1

3.0

2.5

MRF

Accumulate

13,589

14,416

5,763

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0

7.6

7.5

1.6

1.3

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.5

Page Industries

Neutral

3,568

3,980

1,047

1,281

19.6

19.8

127.3

158.1

28.0

22.6

13.4

9.7

54.9

50.0

3.9

3.2

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

569

786

683

1,148

1,360

11.7

11.9

55.5

71.4

10.3

8.0

2.4

1.9

26.3

26.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

245

312

229

1,157

1,320

11.9

12.0

66.6

77.9

3.7

3.1

0.6

0.5

18.3

18.2

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

230

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.2

1.0

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

500

744

879

1,069

1,223

9.7

9.7

40.0

46.5

12.5

10.8

1.8

1.5

15.1

15.3

0.8

0.7

TAJ GVK

Buy

64

108

398

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.0

7.0

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.6

1.4

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

296

371

455

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

4.6

4.3

0.6

0.6

14.5

13.8

0.2

TTK Healthcare

Accumulate

483

553

375

435

516

6.2

7.1

24.3

33.3

19.9

14.5

3.3

2.8

17.6

20.8

0.7

0.6

Tree House

Neutral

270

973

150

192

52.7

52.5

12.8

16.2

21.1

16.7

2.1

1.9

10.0

11.1

6.1

4.6

TVS Srichakra

Buy

188

226

144

1,591

1,739

7.1

7.4

39.4

56.5

4.8

3.3

0.9

0.8

20.6

25.0

0.3

0.3

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

2,046

26,760

11,886

13,491

14.4

14.0

50.9

74.5

40.2

27.5

3.3

3.0

10.6

11.4

2.6

2.2

362

439

736

600

638

20.1

19.4

35.7

36.6

10.2

9.9

1.8

1.6

19.4

17.1

1.0

0.9

Others
United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India*

Buy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on April 26, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 29, 2013

www.angelbroking.com