Demographic Transition Model

• Population increase found by adding rate of natural increase and the rate of
net migration
• Natural increase = difference between birth rate and death rate
• Birth rate = number of live births per 1000 people per year
• Death rate = number of deaths per 1000 people per year
• DTM: analyzes death rate, birth rate, natural increase
• Stage 1:
o Regions in the Himalayas, Irian Jaya (Western New Guinea), central
Africa, interior South America
o High birth rates – children seen as economic asset, old age security,
religion, sign of virility
o High Death rates – poor health care and sanitation
• Stage 2:
o Kenya, Paraguay, Afghanistan, Nepal, Ethiopia
o Lower death rates – improved health care and sanitation
o High birth rates
• Stage 3:
o Lower birth rates – less need for large families, family planning, women
in workforce
o Slightly lower death rates
o Malaysia, Israel, China, Chile
• Stage 4:
o Small gap between birth rates and death rates  stable population
o Bulgaria, Latvia, Russia, Netherlands, UK
• Europe: before the late 1700s (stage 1), from Industrial Rev. to early 1800s
(stage 2), expansion of manufacturing through the 1960s (stage 3), post-
industrialization (stage 4)
• DTM might not apply to other countries, e.g. countries at war (Iraq, Liberia,
Rwanda, Burundi), without the spread of AIDS, Africa’s population would be
25% more than it is today
• Infant mortality: the proportion of children who die before they reach the age
of one year

Migration
• Movement of people
• Permanent or temporary (short- or long-term)
• Circular migration: migrants return home periodically (eg seasonal farm
workers, rural-urban)
• Internal or international
• Voluntary (employment, education) or involuntary (refugees, workers evicted
from farms)
• Ravenstein’s 7 rules
1. Most migrants move only a short distance
2. Step-by-step process : as a group of migrants moves to the next step, new
group from elsewhere will replace them
3. Emigration is opposite of immigration
4. Each wave encourages a counter-current in the opposite direction, net
migration is the balance between the two movements
5. Migrants who travel long distances are more likely to finish up at a major
centre of industry or commerce
 6. Rural people more likely to migrate than urban dwellers
7. Females more likely to migrate in own country, males more likely to
migrate to another country
• Additional migration rules;
1. Large cities and towns grow mire by migration than natural increase
2. People migrate mostly for economic reasons
3. Most migrants are single and in the 20-35 age bracket
4. Migration increases as towns, industries and transport links develop
5. Many migrants are unable to find work when they arrive and eventually
return to their place of origin
• Push factors: forces that repel a person from their place of residence
• Pull factors: forces that attract a person to a new area
• Restraining factors: forces that encourage a person not to move but to remain
in the present area of residence
• Shanty settlements: comprise self-help housing made from scrounged
material
• Rural-urban migration responsible for over half the massive growth in cities in
the developing world in the past decade
• Refugees: migrants who are forced to move because of political unrest or
persecution
• E.g. Tibet to Nepal, Vietnam to Canada and Australia, Congo to Tanzania,
Cambodia to Thailand, Kosovo to Albania
• Migration may be seen as a means of equalizing economic inequalities
between regions
• If people move from area where there is an excess in labor to an area with a
shortage of labor, pressure is relieved at both locations