Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
May 3, 2013
Canara Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 4QFY13 2,091 1,698 725 3QFY13 1,988 1,516 710 % chg (qoq) 5.2 12.0 2.1 4QFY12 2,040 1,491 829 % chg (yoy) 2.5 13.9 (12.5)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 17,485 1.1 550/306 89,857 10 19,576 5,944 CNBK.BO CBK@IN
`395 `461
12 months
Canara Bank reported a weak set of numbers for 4QFY2013, as net profit declined by 12.5% yoy. NII grew at a muted pace of around 2.5% yoy, while non-interest income grew by 30.8% yoy (aided by higher treasury gains), leading to a moderate 13.9% yoy growth in operating profit. The key takeaways from the results were sequential improvement in reported NIM (3bp qoq to 2.4%) and stability on the asset quality front (as lower slippages help contain the sequential increase in Gross and Net NPA levels to 2.8%, each). However, the restructuring during the quarter was substantially high at `2,877cr. Strong business growth qoq; Asset quality stable sequentially: During 4QFY2013, the banks advance book increased substantially by 11.0% on a qoq basis, while deposits also grew strongly at 9.8% qoq. Current deposits remained flat yoy, while saving deposits grew by 9.8% yoy. Consequently, the overall CASA deposits grew by 8.1% yoy (6.0% qoq). The calculated CASA ratio for the bank declined by 87bp sequentially to 24.2%. The banks yield on advances came in flat sequentially at 11.1%, however, a 5bp sequential decline in cost of funds to 6.9%, resulted in a marginal improvement in reported NIM by 3bp to 2.4%. Non-interest income (excluding treasury) witnessed an increase of 11.9% yoy, on back of higher recoveries from written off accounts and modest growth of 7.9% yoy in fee income. On the asset quality front, while slippages, on an absolute basis, remained elevated at `1,086cr, however, were lower sequentially considering slippages of `1,314cr in 3QFY2013 and `1,922cr in 2QFY2013. Recoveries/upgrades came in at `520cr, much higher compared to `217cr in 3QFY2013. Aided by sequentially lower slippages and higher recoveries/upgrades, the bank was able to contain the sequential increase in absolute Gross and Net NPA levels at 2.8% each. Gross and Net NPA ratios were lower by 20bp and 17bp, respectively to 2.6% and 2.2%. The PCR for the bank was stable sequentially at 61.4%. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `2,877cr (primarily from the infrastructure sector) during the quarter. Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, the stock trades at a cyclically moderate valuation of 0.7x FY2015E ABV vs an eight-year average of 1.1x and range of 0.7-1.4x. We value the bank at 0.8x FY2015E ABV and recommend an Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `461. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.7 13.4 12.3 6.7
3m
1yr
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
FY2012 7,689 (0.1) 3,283 (18.5) 2.2 74.1 5.3 0.9 0.9 17.0
FY2013 7,879 2.5 2,872 (12.5) 2.1 64.8 6.1 0.8 0.7 13.2
FY2014E 8,838 12.2 3,313 15.4 2.1 74.8 5.3 0.7 0.8 13.7
FY2015E 9,979 12.9 3,808 14.9 2.2 86.0 4.6 0.7 0.8 14.2
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Akshay Narang
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 akshay.narang@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 8,465 6,073 2,307 85 6,374 2,091 1,007 755 232 252 133 390 3,097 1,399 888 511 1,698 752 346 84 322 945 220 725 23.3
3QFY13 8,544 5,958 2,460 127 6,556 1,988 846 595 199 251 59 337 2,834 1,317 831 486 1,516 626 594 (129) 161 890 180 710 20.2
% chg (qoq) (0.9) 1.9 (6.2) (33.1) (2.8) 5.2 19.0 26.9 16.6 0.4 125.4 15.6 9.3 6.2 6.9 5.1 12.0 20.2 (41.8) (165.1) 100.3 6.2 22.2 2.1 306bp
4QFY12 8,267 6,189 1,908 170 6,227 2,040 769 674 215 95 98 361 2,809 1,319 826 493 1,491 462 390 (107) 179 1,029 200 829 19.4
% chg (yoy) 2.4 (1.9) 20.9 (49.9) 2.4 2.5 30.8 11.9 7.9 165.3 35.7 7.8 10.2 6.1 7.6 3.7 13.9 63.0 (11.3) (178.5) 80.5 (8.1) 10.0 (12.5) 384bp
FY2013 34,078 24,380 9,112 585 26,199 7,879 3,153 2,477 797 676 303 1,377 11,032 5,142 3,254 1,888 5,890 2,218 1,861 (370) 727 3,672 800 2,872 21.8
FY2012 30,851 23,443 7,053 353 23,161 7,689 2,928 2,604 798 324 363 1,443 10,617 4,674 2,973 1,701 5,943 1,860 1,294 154 413 4,083 800 3,283 19.6
% chg (yoy) 10.5 4.0 29.2 65.6 13.1 2.5 7.7 (4.9) (0.1) 108.6 (16.5) (4.6) 3.9 10.0 9.4 11.0 (0.9) 19.2 43.9 (340.6) 76.1 (10.1) (12.5) 219bp
Actual 2,091 1007 3,097 1,399 1,698 752 945 220 725
Estimates 2,027 781 2,807 1,367 1,441 466 975 197 778
Var (%) 3.2 28.9 10.3 2.4 17.8 61.6 (3.1) 11.5 (6.7)
May 3, 2013
4QFY13 242,177 355,856 68.1 14,893 71,168 86,061 24.2 12.4 9.8 7.7 11.1 8.1 9.1 7.0 2.4 45.2 6,260 2.6 5,278 2.2 61.4 1.9 0.3
3QFY13 218,242 323,963 67.4 12,473 68,689 81,162 25.1 12.6 9.8 7.8 11.1 8.1 9.1 7.0 2.4 46.5 6,090 2.8 5,134 2.4 61.5 2.3 0.6
%chg (qoq) 11.0 9.8 69bp 19.4 3.6 6.0 (87)bp (24)bp 1bp (9)bp 1bp 0bp (1)bp (5)bp 3bp (131)bp 2.8 (20)bp 2.8 (17)bp (15)bp (39)bp (27)bp
4QFY12 232,490 327,054 71.1 14,819 64,792 79,611 24.3 13.8 10.4 7.4 10.9 8.0 9.0 6.7 2.5 46.9 4,032 1.7 3,386 1.5 67.6 2.1 0.4
%chg (yoy) 4.2 8.8 (303)bp 0.5 9.8 8.1 (16)bp (136)bp (58)bp 37bp 20bp 17bp 13bp 26bp (11)bp (176)bp 55.3 84bp 55.9 72bp (624)bp (24)bp (7)bp
May 3, 2013
14.0
8.1
9.4 11.3
4.9 11.5
(0.5)
7.7
2.7
4.2
64.1
8.8
(1.0)
24.3
23.3
24.8
25.1
24.2
4QFY12 (7.0)
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(4.2)
(10.0)
2.50
2.40
2.53
2.36
2.39
6.72 7.35
7.12 7.89
7.13 7.83
7.03 7.81
4QFY13
Moderate growth in Non-interest income (excl. treasury) on back of higher recoveries and modest growth in fee income
During 4QFY2013, Non-interest income (excluding treasury) witnessed an increase of 11.9% yoy to `755cr, on back of higher recoveries from written off accounts and subdued growth in fee income. While the fee income for the bank witnessed a growth of 7.9% yoy to `232cr, recoveries from written-off accounts increased by a strong 35.7% yoy to `133cr. The bank reported treasury income of `252cr during the quarter compared to `95cr in 4QFY2012. Aided by substantially higher treasury income and recoveries, the overall non-interest income for the bank witnessed a strong growth of 30.8% yoy to `1,007cr.
May 3, 2013
6.98 7.72
1.7 1.5
2.0 1.7
2.6 2.1
2.8 2.4
2.1
2.6
3.3
2.3
1.9
2.6 2.2
50.0
0.50
0.5
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
May 3, 2013
Opex to average assets (%, RHS) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -
3,600
3,609
3,655
1.4 1.2
4QFY13
Investment concerns
Weak liability franchise likely to keep NIM under pressure
The bank has a relatively weak liability profile with a calculated CASA base at 24.2% as of 4QFY2013. The bank has relatively high proportion of more costly bulk deposits, which increases the banks exposure to interest rate movements. Due to low credit-deposit ratio of 68.1% in 4QFY2013 and elevated slippages, margins continued to remain under check at under 2.4%. However going ahead, the bank is expected to significantly shed down its high-costs bulk deposits portfolio. Also, the bank has embarked on a relatively aggressive network expansion plan. Over the past two years, the bank has added ~470 branches and more than 1300 ATMs. Such a pace of network expansion should augur well, in our view, for strengthening the banks relatively weak liability franchise. Also, the bank plans to take the number of branches from 3,728 to 5,000 by March 2015 which should give a thrust to its low cost deposits.
May 3, 2013
45.19
46.9
45.0
50.0
46.5
Earlier estimates FY2014E 14.0 10.0 27.4 2.2 0.0 7.5 7.5 2.0 65.0 16.0 14.0 27.7 2.3 13.8 7.5 7.5 1.6 67.5
Revised estimates 18.0 8.0 25.4 2.1 (2.0) 7.5 7.5 2.0 63.5 18.0 12.0 26.1 2.2 12.9 7.5 7.5 1.7 65.0
FY2015E Earlier estimates 9,878 3,330 13,208 5,904 7,304 1,543 5,760 1,958 3,802 Revised Var. (%) estimates 9,979 3,487 13,467 5,942 7,525 1,756 5,769 1,961 3,808 1.0 4.7 2.0 0.6 3.0 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.1
Earlier estimates 8,745 2,928 11,673 5,493 6,180 1,700 4,480 1,165 3,316
Revised Var. (%) estimates 8,838 3,090 11,928 5,528 6,400 1,923 4,478 1,164 3,313 1.1 5.5 2.2 0.6 3.6 13.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Oct-08
Feb-07
Nov-10
Sep-06
Feb-12
Sep-11
May-08
May-13
Dec-07
Aug-09
Dec-12
Oct-13
Jan-10
Jun-10
Apr-06
Apr-11
Jul-07
Jul-12
May 3, 2013
Mar-09
Mar-14
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Canara Bank is the largest south India -based PSU bank (overall fifth largest bank in India), with a balance sheet size of around `4.1lakh cr. The bank has a reasonably large pan-India presence; with about 45% of its 3,700+ branches outside South India (the bank also has 3,500+ ATMs).
May 3, 2013
May 3, 2013
May 3, 2013
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Canara Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
May 3, 2013
11