7th IAGA/ICMA/CAWSES Workshop on Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere

Buenos Aires, Argentina, 11-14 September, 2012

7th International Workshop on Long term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere (TRENDS-2012)
Buenos Aires, Argentina, September 11-14, 2012

SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM Tuesday, September 11, 2012

9:30 - 10:00 Morning Session I 10:00 - 10:30 Registration Opening: Chaired by Ana Elias Opening remark by G. Beig (Chair-SPC-IAGA/ICMA-WG) Address by J. Lastovicka (CAWSES II, TG-2) Welcome by Sponsors UCEMA (M. Conte Grand) and FACETUNT (P. Fernandez) Announcements by LOC Invited Overview Talk-I: J. LASTOVICKA Trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere Recent progress Coffee Break Chairman: Dan Marsh Invited Talk: P.O. CANZIANI Ozone and stratospheric temperature trends: A review P. Krizan and J. LASTOVICKA Trends in ozone laminae An update A.I. POGORELTSEV and E.N. Savenkova Changes in stratospheric dynamics caused by the changes of propagation conditions of planetary waves E. SAVENKOVA, M. Motsakov, and A. Pogoreltsev Changes in the mean flow and planetary waves observed during the last decades Lunch Chairman: Pablo Canziani Invited Talk: J.P. ROZELOT Has solar variability caused past climate change that may lead to social vulnerabilities? Is the anthropocene an exceptional climatic era? R. ABARCA DEL RIO, D. Gambis, and D. Salstein

10:30 - 11:10

11:10 - 11:40 Morning Session II 11:40 - 12:10 12:10 - 12:30 12:30 - 12:50

12:50 - 13:10

13:10 - 14:30 Afternoon Session I 14:30 - 15:00

15:00 - 15:20

15:20 - 15:40

15:40 - 16:00

Interdecadal oscillations in atmospheric angular momentum transport. Their role in the modulation of climate variability throughout the recent century G.R. SONNEMANN, M. Grygalashvyly, F.J. Lbken, U. Berger, and P. Hartogh Trend of the OH*-layer from 1961 to present based on model results P. HOFFMANN, R. Latteck, M. Rapp, W. Singer, and G.K. Kumar Trends and solar cycle variations of mesospheric winds and waves at northern middle and polar latitudes Coffee Break Chairman: Jan Lastovicka Invited Talk: H. SCHMIDT Engineering the climate via solar radiation managements: Effects and side effects C. JACOBI, S. Lange, and P. Hoffmann Solar cycle effects in mesosphere/lower thermosphere summer winds M. DELAND, E. Shettle, G. Thomas, and J. Olivero Updated polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) trends derived from SBUV data G.R. SONNEMANN and M. Grygalashvyly Decreasing atmospheric effective CO2 lifetime How does it affect future CO2 concentrations? Welcome Dinner & Tango Show at El Viejo Almacen

16:00 - 16: 30 Afternoon Session II 16:30 - 17:00

17:00 - 17:20

17:20 - 17:40

17:40 18:00

20:00 - 23:30

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Morning Session I 09:30 - 10:10 Chairman: Gufran Beig Invited Overview-II: M. MLYNCZAK SABER: Observing the pulse of the sun in the atmosphere of the Earth R. LATTECK and J. Bremer Observations of polar mesosphere summer echoes during a solar cycle D.R. MARSH Climate change from 1850 to 2100 in CESM-WACCM Coffee Break Chairman: Stanley Solomon Invited Talk: F.J. LBKEN and U. Berger Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere G. BEIG Advances in anthropogenic and solar trends in MLT-region

10:10 - 10:30

10:30 - 10:50

10:50 - 11:20 Morning Session II 11:20 - 11:50

11:50 - 12:10

12:10 - 12:40

12:40 - 13:10

Invited Talk: D. OFFERMANN, P. Knieling, R. Koppmann, W. Steinbrecht, and J. Wintel Quasi-four-year (Q4O) and decadal variations in the middle atmosphere S. SHARMA and H. Chandra Long term changes in the ionosphere at low latitudes: Impact of green house gases Lunch Chairman: John Emmert Invited Talk: M. BITTNER, P. Espy, J. French, J. Scheer, M Taylor, and S. Wildner The network for the detection of mesospheric change (NDMC): Overview and selected results Invited Talk: J. SCHEER and E.R. Reisin Simpsons paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data E. ROJAS VILLALBA and M. Milla A long-term trend study of the F-region peak height above Jicamarca S. SHARMA, H. Chandra, S. Lal and Y. B. Acharya Long term middle atmospheric temperature trends observed by LIDAR and satellite over a sub-tropical location Coffee Break & Poster Session Chairman: Dirk Offermann J.T. EMMERT, M. H. Stevens, P. F. Bernath, D. P. Drob, and C. D. Boone Observations of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the thermosphere A. MEZA, M.P. Natali, and L.I. Fernndez Analysis of the winter and semiannual ionospheric anomalies in 19992009 based on GPS global international GNSSservice maps J.H. YEE, M. Mlynczak, and J. Russell III Decadal-scale variability of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: Solar influence and long-term trend D.A. GNABAHOU, AG. Elias and F. Ouattara Long-term trend of foF2 at a west African equatorial station J.A. SALINAS, T. Cavazos, G. Colorado, E. Maya, J.G.R. de la Cruz, and P. de Grau Global models performance for the Mexican area

13:10 - 14:30 Afternoon Session I 14:30 - 15:00

15:00 - 15:30

15:30 - 15:50

15:50 - 16:10

16:10 - 17:10 Afternoon Session II 17:10 17:30

17:30 17:50

17:50 18:10

18:10 18:30 18:30 18:50

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Morning Session I 09:30 - 10:00 Chairperson: Marta Zossi Invited Talk: A.D. DANILOV Trends in the F2-layer parameters at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s

10:00 - 10:20

10:20 - 10:50 10:50 - 11:40 Morning Session II 11:40 - 12:10

S.C. SOLOMON, L. Qian, R.G. Roble, and M.G. Mlynczak On the discrepancy between observations and models of thermospheric climate change Invited Talk: John T. EMMERT Thermospheric density climate and climate change Coffee Break & Poster Session Chairman: Juergen Scheer Invited Talk: M. A. ABDU, I. S. Batista and J. R. Souza The changing trends in the ionosphere over Brazil due to the secular variation in the geomagnetic field L. QIAN, S.C. Solomon, and S. Nossal Impact of middle atmosphere trace gas trends on the thermosphere S. ZHANG and J. Holt Variability of the ionospheric temperature trend derived from incoherent scatter radar observations over Millstone Hill during 1968-2006 J. LASTOVICKA Are trends in TEC really positive? Lunch Chairman: Claudio Brunini I. CNOSSEN, A. Richmond, and M. Wiltberger How changes in the Earth's magnetic field affect the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system A.D. DANILOV and A.V. Konstantinova Relation between the trends in foF2 and hmF2 in various time intervals City Tour

12:10 - 12:30 12:30 - 12:50

12:50 - 13:10 13:10 - 14:10 Afternoon Session II 14:10 - 14:30

14:30 14:50

15:30 - 18:30

Friday, September 14, 2012

Morning Session I 09:30 - 09:50 Chairman: Christoph Jacobi C. BRUNINI, F. Azpilicueta and M. Gende A technique for mapping the F2-peak parameters based on FORMOSAT 3 cosmic measurements C. TSUCHIYA and K. Sato Trend of frontogenesis function as one of gravity wave sources C. JACOBI and P. Hoffmann Long-term trends of mesosphere/lower thermosphere gravity waves at midlatitudes S. WST, S. Yee, D. Offermann, and M. Bittner Height-depending analysis of the dominant factors of gravity wave activity: Source and filter mechanisms as well as solar influence Coffee Break

09:50 - 10:10 10:10 - 10:30

10:30 - 10:50

10:50 - 11:20

Morning Session II 11:20 - 11:40

11:40 - 12:00

12:00 - 12:20 12:20 - 12:40

12:40 - 13:00

13:00 13:20

13:20 13:40

13:40 - 13:50 13:50 - 14:00

14:00 - 14:10

Chairperson: Ana Elias S. DASSO, P. Demoulin, A.M. Gulisano, and M.E.Ruiz Geoeffective interplanetary events and dependence with solar cycle A. DE LA TORRE, P. Alexander, P. Llamedo, R. Hierro, T. Schmidt, A. Faber and J. Wickert Estimated vertical flux of horizontal momentum due to mountain waves from GPS radio occultation data above Southern Andes and the Antartic Peninsula M.P. NATALI and A. Meza The nighttime anomalies using global IGS VTEC maps D.J. SHETTI Total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere during the geomagnetic storm on 15 May 2005 R. KHAITOV, S. Kolesnik, and V. Sarychev Seasonal, diurnal variations critical frequency in the F2-layer over middle latitudes J.C. GIANIBELLI and N. Sabbione Possible effect of solar activity in the rainfall series at La Plata city, Argentina O.S. OYEKOLA, V.H. Rios and W. Suparta Sunspot activity variability and the terrestrial climate records, Ibadan (7.4N, 3.9E) Ingrid Cnossen Announcement of 8th Trend Workshop 2014, London, UK Pablo Canziani Announcement of WCRP Special Workshop on Climatic Effects of Ozone Depletion in the Southern Hemisphere: Assessing the evidence and identifying Gaps in the current knowledge, 3-7 December 2012, Buenos Aires, Argentina Closing

POSTERS
O.S. OYEKOLA and V.H. Rios Long-term land surface-temperature trends and variability in the equatorial tropical atmosphere S. KOLESNIK, R. Khaitov, and V. Sarychev Spectra and trends critical frequency in the F2-layer over middle latitudes B. DE HARO BARBAS, A.G. Elias and M. Zossi Analysis of Sq long-term changes at low latitudes O.A. ELEMIDE Impact of climate change on agriculture in sub-Sahara Africa G. SCHEFFLER and Manuel Pulido A multiyear analyisis of gravity wave drag estimated from global reanalyses using data assimilation J. Salvador, E. Wolfram, L. Otero, P. Ristori, M.G. NICORA, J. Pallotta, M. Raponi, E. Pawelko, F. Chouza, F Orte, R. DElia, D. Bulnes, E. Quel Observation of atmosphere in the atmospheric observatory of Austral Patagonia, Ro

Gallegos, Argentina T. Schmidt, P. Llamedo, A. DE LA TORRE, S. Heise, F. Zus, G. Beyerle, A. Faber, and J Wickert Variability of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation temperatures P. LAROCCA An upper limit prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle N 24 G.A. MANSILLA and Marta M. Zossi Solar cycle and seasonal distribution of geomagnetic storms with sudden commencement L.I. FERNANDEZ, A.M. Meza, and Mara Andrea Van Zele Wavelet analysis of the local time effects at mid-latitudes during 6-7 April 2000 geospheric storm
L.I. FERNANDEZ and Amalia M. Meza

Phenomenological analysis of ionospheric storms: some physical mechanisms tested C. RODAS and Manuel Pulido Mountain drag climatology at Patagonia region from CMIP5 simulations. A characterization of extreme events V. ITUK Seasonal temperature prediction using monthly indices model M. ZOSSI and P. Fernandez Trends in stratosphere temperature from 10 to 100 hPa using NCEP-NCAR data P. LLAMEDO, T. Schmidt, A. de la Torre, A. Faber, R. Hierro, P. Alexander and J. Wickert Long term study of gravity waves properties using the radio occultation techniques A. Faber, P. LLAMEDO, T. Schmidt, A. de la Torre and J. Wickert Global momentum flux determination from GPS radio occultation data A.ABDALLAH, A. Mahrous, and K. Groves TEC variation during the enhancing phase of the solar cycle 24 near the equatorial anmoaly region in Egypt

Ana G. Elas Local Organizing Committee 7th IAGA/ICMA/CAWSES Workshop on Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere