Assessing vulnerability of Montenegrin forest sector to climate change

Montenegrin forests and forest land are an extremely important ecosystem and economic resource with multiple role: they are important producers of biomass, sources of healthy and high-quality forest fruits, medicinal herbs and mushrooms, an important habitat for wild plant and animal species, the main factor for the maintenance and regulation of hydrological regime, provide protection from landslides and erosion, absorb significant volumes of carbon and represent the main air-purifying system. Climate change and air pollutants are the initial predisposing factors that operate over a longer period of time and that lead to physiological weakening of the plants. The forests of reduced vitality are highly subject to the attacks by parasites, weaknesses and secondary insect pests. The infectious potential and aggressiveness of the pathogens is often enormously increased by warmer climate, so that these become the dominant factor in the spread of disease. Secondary pests can also multiply quickly, resulting in their gradation, so that they become primary and attack healthy trees. Adverse factors operate simultaneously, or occur in succession. The Initial National Communication of Montenegro to UNFCCC report identified that drying of forests has a global character with a trend of further increase of intensity; it is somewhat selective with respect to individual tree species, their structural form, stand age and site quality, which leads to progressive degradation of forest ecosystems, and reduces the production potential of forests. Projected weather characteristics (temperature and precipitation) will initiate numerous negative impacts on forest ecosystems and positive impacts on the distribution and physiological state of insects (such as defoliators, bark beetles) and phytopathogenic fungi (e.g. powdery mildew, causers of diseases of fungal assimilation organs and polypore mushrooms). An indirect effect of temperature increase is reflected in the fact that the insects are poikilothermic organisms so that as the temperature is increasing the conditions for their development become closer to an optimum. Pests will also extend to the north. Mild winters will provide additionally favorable conditions for their survival through the winter. Therefore it is recommended that prevention of adverse effects of climate change to the forest sector in Montenegro that are inevitable due to changes on the value of climatic factors it is necessary to implement measures such as application of forest management system that support and protect sustainable forest management, etc. UNDP Montenegro is supporting Government of Montenegro in assessing vulnerability of forest sector to pests and plant diseases. As part of the Environmental monitoring programme a report is prepared which is addressing seven tree species in Montenegro and assessing their vulnerability to plant diseases and parasites. In addition to general information on area of disbursement and main characteristics for the seven tree species and on available GIS maps and layers the report is providing review of timber stock and its structure for the seven tree species and addresses changes in forest ecosystem in recent decades. It elaborates on how changes in temperature and precipitation for the last 30 years impacts forest ecosystems and what is the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to pests and diseases to climate change. Detailed information about fires, frequency of occurrence, affected areas and destroyed timber volume and related economic damages is a very important part of the report, as well as further analyzes of value of wood of economically important/interesting tree species such as beech, Norway spruce and Sessile oak.